How Iran’s missile arsenal holds the Middle East hostage

A display featuring missiles and a portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen at Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran September 27, 2017. (Reuters/File Photo)
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Updated 19 July 2020
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How Iran’s missile arsenal holds the Middle East hostage

  • Preoccupation with its survival has not diminished regime’s commitment to its outsized missile program
  • Weapons at disposal of Iran and its proxies present imminent danger to the Kingdom and other GCC states

LONDON: The month of July has seen multiple attempted missile and drone strikes by Houthi forces on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia.

The latest was a failed attack on July 14, which at once focused global attention on Tehran’s outsized missile program and highlighted how the regime used its proxy armies and arsenal of weapons to sow chaos across the Middle East.

A 2019 report by the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) laid bare the extent of Iran’s commitment to its missile program and made it clear that these weapons presented a stark threat to Saudi Arabia and the wider region.

Iran’s missile arsenal was by far the largest in the Middle East, the report warned. Run entirely by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and with a price tag (estimated at billions of dollars per year) that was accelerating the collapse of the domestic economy, these weapons were a core part of Iran’s aggressive foreign policy.

Experts told Arab News that Iran’s missiles are not only dangerous pieces of weaponry in themselves, but are being held in dangerous hands, and are the pillar of a hostile and belligerent foreign policy.

The threat of the IRGC’s missiles, analysts and the CSIS report confirmed, could not be underestimated. An all-out missile assault on a nearby country, such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE, “would overwhelm virtually any missile-defense system,” the CSIS study claimed.

The range of Iran’s missiles, from roughly 300 km to 2,000 km and above, posed a unique challenge to Saudi Arabia — especially given Tehran’s hostility toward the Kingdom — and also presented a catastrophic threat to states throughout the Middle East.

Ian Williams, deputy director of the CSIS’ missile defense project, told Arab News that the ability to overwhelm any air defenses was a central part of the Iranian strategy.

He said Tehran realized that it could not “outright defeat the US and GCC (partners), but if they (the Iranians) can make such a conflict painful enough, they can deter external threats in all but the most extreme circumstances.”

As Iran’s relationships with its neighbors and the US have turned sour, and its economic situation spirals further out of control, the regime has been increasingly preoccupied with its own survival. This has not, however, meant that Iran has taken a step back from its truculent geopolitical posture.

“Iran is using its missiles as a means of power projection. We see this in its missile attacks in Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia,” Williams added.

Tehran had also been upgrading its arsenal in recent years, “making big strides in increasing the accuracy and lethality of its missiles,” he said. “Iran is increasingly able to use its missiles to make effective attacks on enemy military bases and formations, rather than just a terror weapon to attack cities.”

Dr. Christopher Bolan, professor of Middle East security studies at the US Army War College, said that as sanctions bit and Iran’s conventional military was undermined by poor leadership, Tehran was increasingly reliant on using and exporting ballistic missiles to its proxy forces throughout the region.

“Iran has equipped several of its closest proxy forces — the Houthis, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Kata’ib Hezbollah — with advanced missile capabilities that have been used to strike targets in Saudi Arabia, northern Israel, and in Iraq respectively,” he told Arab News.

“Iran has cultivated a regionwide network of proxy forces that have the potential to inflict significant damage on US or allied interests, with the added advantage of providing Tehran with a degree of cover and plausible deniability.

“In Iran’s national security strategy, these proxies are an essential element of deterrence,” Bolan said.

The evidence that Tehran was leaning further into this strategy was abundant. This year, Kata’ib Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful ally in Iraq, was suspected of having been responsible for a series of missile attacks in the country, including one that killed two American soldiers and one British service member.

The Sept. 14, 2019, attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, too, provided ample evidence of how Tehran mobilized its proxy forces to strike terror. Claimed by the Houthi rebels at the time, the sophistication of the attacks meant that they would have been impossible without Iranian assistance and arms.

As Tuesday’s attempted Houthi strike on the Kingdom demonstrated, these tactics were still being actively pursued by Tehran to this day.

Samuel Hickey, a research analyst at the Washington-based Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told Arab News: “Iran often operates in the gray zone between war and peace.

“This strategy helps Iran further its security goals, while not necessarily provoking direct retaliation,” he said, adding that it also created “uncertainty in how adversaries should respond.”

All experts that spoke with Arab News testified to the uniquely difficult task of responding effectively to the Iranian missile threat.

THENUMBERS

- 4-5% Defense’s share of Iran’s GDP

- $18.4bn Estimated defense spending in 2019

- $6.96bn Funding for IRGC in 2020 budget

- $2.73bn Funding for conventional military (Artesh)

(Source: US Institute of Peace)

If pushed too hard, they agreed, the Iranians could lay waste to swathes of the Middle East, while likely destroying themselves in the process. But if appeasement continued, there was every indication that the IRGC would continue to destabilize the region, proliferate ballistic missiles, and accelerate its pursuit of nuclear arms.

“The Iranian missile threat cannot be negated, only mitigated,” Bolan said. The first step, he added, was already in motion, that being “strengthening the missile defense capabilities of the Arab Gulf states.”

But he pointed out that improvements were still required in that first line of defense. “More work needs to be done to integrate these disparate national systems into a regional network capable of detection of launches.”

The US, Bolan said, could play a pivotal role in guaranteeing the safety of the Kingdom and wider GCC.

Our enemies should wait to hear further news about long-range missiles and vessels they cannot even imagine...

Brig. Gen. Alireza Tangsiri, IRGC Navy commander

“The US should continue to bolster the individual national missile defense capabilities of regional allies, and (act as) a primary deterrent to Iranian missile strikes,” he added.

He noted that the US should use its position as a key ally to many states in the Middle East to push for greater integration, which would “create a more effective regionwide missile defense capability.”

As things stood, Tehran continued to put ballistic missiles, and the means to use them, into the hands of terrorists. Individual strikes could come from Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, or Syria, but at the source of every missile fired was Iranian technology and Iranian funding.

Enhanced missile defenses and cooperation between the Kingdom and its allies would mitigate the Iranian threat, but it was clear that, until Tehran gave up its misguided pursuit of regional hegemony, its weapons would pose a constant threat to those that sought stability and prosperity.

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Twitter: @CHamillStewart

 


UN Security Council urges halt to fighting in South Sudan

Updated 6 sec ago
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UN Security Council urges halt to fighting in South Sudan

UNITED NATIONS: The UN Security Council on Thursday urged an immediate halt to the fighting in South Sudan and renewed its peacekeeping mission in the warring country for another year.
The UNSC “demands all parties to the conflict and other armed actors to immediately end the fighting throughout South Sudan and engage in political dialogue,” the resolution read.
The text, which called for an end to violence against civilians and voiced concern over the use of barrel bombs, was adopted by 12 votes in favor while Russia, China, and Pakistan abstained.
Rights groups have recently sounded the alarm over the deadly use of the improvised and unguided explosives in the north of the country.
The young and impoverished nation has been wracked for years by insecurity and political instability.
But clashes in Upper Nile State between forces allied to President Salva Kiir and his rival, Vice President Riek Machar, have raised concerns over another civil war.
Thursday’s resolution also extended the UN’s peacekeeping mission, founded in 2011 to consolidate peace, until next April.
It also leaves open the possibility of “adjusting” the force and altering its mandate “based on security conditions on the ground.”
Acting US Ambassador Dorothy Shea said the international community should use the deployment as one tool to bring the country “back from the brink.”
Shea also said it would be “irresponsible” to continue funding preparations for elections after the country’s transitional leadership postponed any ballot by two years last September.


Morocco commutes sentence of detained former minister

Updated 37 min 36 sec ago
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Morocco commutes sentence of detained former minister

  • Mohammed Ziane was convicted on ‘embezzlement and squandering of public funds’
  • His sentence has been commuted from five to three years

RABAT: A Moroccan court has commuted the prison sentence of opposition figure and former Minister Mohammed Ziane from five to three years, his lawyer said on Thursday.

The former human rights minister had been detained since 2022 and served a three-year term in a different case.

Ziane, 82, the former president of the Rabat Bar Association, was convicted on “embezzlement and squandering of public funds,” said his son and lawyer, Ali Reda Ziane.

The charges relate to funds the Moroccan Liberal Party, or PML — of which Ziane was founder and chief — received during a 2015 electoral campaign.

He was sentenced to five years in prison in July last year.

Even with the court reducing his sentence late Wednesday, “it remains heavy,” said his lawyer. 

“He deserves to be acquitted because there was no embezzlement.”

The lawyer said whether the sentences in the two cases would be served concurrently or consecutively remained unclear.

Proceedings in the initial case followed an Interior Ministry complaint on seven counts, among them contempt of public officials and the judiciary, defamation, adultery, and sexual harassment.

But Ziane has alleged that he was detained “because of (his political) opinion.”

The opposition figure had become known in recent years for statements criticizing the authorities in Morocco, particularly the intelligence services.


A US-backed group seeks to take over Gaza aid distribution in a plan similar to Israel’s

Updated 34 min 43 sec ago
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A US-backed group seeks to take over Gaza aid distribution in a plan similar to Israel’s

  • The UN and aid groups have rejected Israel’s moves to control aid distribution
  • A US official confirmed the authenticity of the proposal and said the former director of the WFP, David Beasley, is the lead choice to run Gaza Humanitarian Foundation

TEL AVIV: A group of American security contractors, ex-military officers and humanitarian aid officials is proposing to take over the distribution of food and other supplies in Gaza based on plans similar to ones designed by Israel.
The Associated Press obtained a proposal from the newly created group, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, to implement a new aid distribution system supplanting the current one run by the UN and other international aid agencies. The UN and aid groups have rejected Israel’s moves to control aid distribution.
It was not immediately clear if the proposal from the new group, which is registered in Geneva, would ease those concerns.
Israel has blocked food, fuel, medicine and all other supplies from entering Gaza for 10 weeks, worsening a humanitarian crisis for 2.3 million Palestinians. It has said it won’t allow aid back in until a system is in place that gives it control over distribution.
The 14-page proposal circulated this week among aid groups and UN officials lays out plans similar to ones Israel has been discussing privately for weeks with international aid groups. The proposal reveals for the first time plans to create the foundation and names the people leading it.

A UN official said last week that Israel’s plans would “weaponize aid” by placing restrictions on who is eligible to receive it.
Aid workers have also criticized the plans, which would centralize distribution at four hubs under the protection of private security contractors. They say the plans could not possibly meet the needs of Gaza’s large and desperate population, and that they would forcibly displace large numbers of Palestinians by driving them to move nearer to the aid.
Under the new group’s proposal, Palestinians would receive pre-packaged rations, potable water, hygiene kits, blankets, and other supplies at the distribution hubs. The group said it wants to partner with the UN and international aid groups in handing out their supplies.
A US official confirmed the authenticity of the proposal and said the former director of the UN World Food Program, David Beasley, is the lead choice to run GHF. The proposal could still be revised and Beasley’s role is not confirmed, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to detail plans that have not been made public.
Beasley, a former governor of South Carolina, didn’t immediately respond to messages seeking comment.
Israel accuses Hamas and other militants of siphoning off large amounts of aid. The UN and aid workers deny there is significant diversion, saying the UN strictly monitors distribution.
When contacted Thursday for comment about GHF’s proposal, Israeli officials did not immediately respond.
The Trump administration supports the new group’s proposal, said a person involved in it. The person said GHF would work “within the confines” set by Israel on aid but would be “independent and committed to humanitarian principles” — a nod to UN concerns. The person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a plan not yet made public.
“This is a new approach with one focus: Get help to people. Right now,” said US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
Ahead of his first trip to the Middle East this week, US President Donald Trump said “a lot of talk” was going on about Gaza and that his administration will soon have more to say about a new proposal. This may include a new push for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, the release of hostages and an influx of aid to Palestinians.
Who’s involved?
GHF’s proposal names a 10-member leadership team that includes former senior American military officers, business executives and officials from aid groups. At least two of them have ties to private security companies.
Beasley is listed among them, but the proposal says his role is still “to be finalized.” Beasley is also a senior adviser to Fogbow, a private US firm that participated in the short-lived project delivering aid to Gaza by sea via a US military-built pier.
The AP contacted people listed in the proposal to confirm their participation. Only one responded, saying he was “not on the board.” The person involved in planning said the list was still in flux.

How would it work?
According to the proposal, GHF would initially set up four distribution sites, each serving 300,000 people. That would cover about half of Gaza’s population. The system would be scaled up to meet the needs of 2 million people. But the proposal does not give a timeframe. Aid workers warn that food is rapidly running out in Gaza under Israel’s blockade.
The GHF proposal said subcontractors will use armored vehicles to transport supplies from the Gaza border to distribution sites, where they will also provide security. It said the aim is to deter criminal gangs or militants from redirecting aid.
It did not specify who would provide security but said it could include personnel who previously worked in the Netzarim Corridor, an Israeli-held zone cutting off northern Gaza. A private security company, Safe Reach Solutions, has operated in the corridor.
GHF said people will get assistance based on need with no eligibility requirements. This appears to differ from proposals floated by Israel. Aid workers say Israel has said it intends to vet aid recipients and screen them using facial recognition.
What do aid groups say?
Throughout Israel’s campaign in Gaza, the UN and other humanitarian groups have been carrying out a massive aid program. They have trucked in supplies and distributed them across the territory, going as close as possible to where Palestinians were located.
What has chiefly hampered the system, aid workers have said, are Israeli military operations and restrictions on movement, as well as the low amount of aid allowed to enter even before the blockade. Convoys have also been attacked by criminal groups stealing aid, and hungry Palestinians have sometimes taken supplies from trucks.
Aid workers contacted by the AP cast doubt whether GHF would meet humanitarian requirements for neutrality and independence.
Shaina Low, communications adviser for Norwegian Refugee Council, one of the main organizations in Gaza, said aid groups are concerned the plan will be used “to advance military and political goals.”
By forcing the population to relocate around aid hubs, the system would “depopulate entire parts of Gaza” and could be used to potentially expel the population, she said.
“They are framing (the plan) to fix the problem that doesn’t really exist,” she said, referring to Israel’s contention that it must prevent Hamas from taking aid.
The use of private security companies has also alarmed humanitarian workers. While it’s common for private security firms to operate in conflict zones, they have to respect humanitarian law and at a minimum be fully vetted and monitored, said Jamie Williamson, executive director for the International Code of Conduct Association.
Tamara Alrifai, communications director for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, which has led the aid effort it Gaza, said the plan was logistically unworkable.
She said the foundation does not appear able to match the current infrastructure needed to distribute food and address other humanitarian needs.
Alrifai called it “a very dangerous precedent” for countries to use “full siege as a tactic of war” to force the abandonment of “existing aid structures and the entire international system that exists and is recognized and start creating a new system.”


South Sudan clashes stopping aid reaching 60,000 malnourished children: UN

Updated 48 min 3 sec ago
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South Sudan clashes stopping aid reaching 60,000 malnourished children: UN

NAIROBI: Intense fighting in South Sudan has prevented desperately needed food from reaching some 60,000 malnourished children for almost a month, the UN said on Thursday.

South Sudan has been wracked for years by insecurity and political instability, but recent clashes in Upper Nile State between forces allied to President Salva Kiir and his rival, Vice President Riek Machar, have alarmed observers.

In a joint statement, the World Food Programme and the UN children’s agency, UNICEF, warned that escalating fighting along the White Nile river — a major transport route — has meant “no humanitarian supplies have reached the area in almost a month.”

The area in the north of the country already had “over 300,000 children affected by moderate or severe malnutrition in the past year” and was at “breaking point.”

“Every day makes a difference for a malnourished child in need of life saving treatment,” said WFP’s South Sudan representative, Mary-Ellen McGroarty.

The agencies said almost 2,000 cartons of lifesavingnutrition supplies had been stolen since the uptick in hostilities.

UNICEF representative Obia Achieng said there was an “unprecedented” break in supply lines due to the ongoing fighting, looting, and disruption of the river route.

“If this continues, we are in danger of simply running out of supplies in counties across the state by the end of May 2025, with potentially catastrophic results for the youngest, most vulnerable children,” Achieng said.

South Sudan has been unstable since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011.

Kiir and Machar fought a five-year civil war that cost some 400,000 lives, and was only ended by a power-sharing deal in 2018 that has almost entirely collapsed in recent months.


UN: Israel school closures in East Jerusalem ‘assault on children’

Updated 08 May 2025
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UN: Israel school closures in East Jerusalem ‘assault on children’

  • The Palestinian Authority also condemned the move in a statement, calling it a ‘violation of children’s right to education’

JERUSALEM: The head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees on Thursday decried an “assault on children” after Israel closed all six of its schools in annexed East Jerusalem, months after an Israeli ban on its activities took effect.

“Storming schools & forcing them shut is a blatant disregard of international law,” UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini posted on X, describing the move as “An assault on children. An assault on education.”

UNRWA spokesman Jonathan Fowler said that Israeli forces “closed six UN schools in annexed East Jerusalem on Thursday, posting closure orders on the six buildings and forcibly entering three of the six schools.”

An AFP photographer present at two of the schools in the Shuafat refugee camp reported that Israeli forces entered the premises and posted a closure notice stating the schools were operating without “authorization.”

The children had to leave the premises, with many departing in tears. Several young pupils, some visibly moved and others shocked, hugged in front of the school before they left.

UNRWA said one of its staff members was detained.

“From May 8, 2025, it will be prohibited to operate educational institutions, or employ teachers, teaching staff, or any other staff, and it will be forbidden to accommodate students or allow the entry of students into this institution,” the closure order in Hebrew read.

UNRWA’s director in the West Bank, Roland Friedrich, said that “heavily armed” forces surrounded the three UNRWA schools in Shuafat camp at 9 a.m.

Friedrich added that 550 pupils aged six to 15 were present when the closure was enforced, calling it “a traumatising experience for young children who are at immediate risk of losing their access to education.”

Friedrich said police were deployed in the area around three separate schools in other parts of East Jerusalem, which has been annexed by Israel since 1967.

UNRWA said that the school year for 800 children had “been ended by force.”

The Palestinian Authority condemned the move in a statement, calling it a “violation of children’s right to education.”

In a statement, its Education Ministry called the closures a “crime.” 

It urged international institutions “to assume their responsibilities and defend the right of refugee children to a free and safe education.”

UNRWA has provided support for Palestinian refugees around the Middle East for more than 70 years, but has long clashed with Israeli officials, who have repeatedly accused it of undermining the country’s security.

At the end of January, Israeli legislation banned the agency’s activities. 

Due to the annexation, the law applies to East Jerusalem but not to the rest of the West Bank, which has been occupied by Israel since 1967.

Contact between it and Israeli officials is also forbidden.

Israel has accused UNRWA of providing cover for Hamas militants, claiming that some of the agency’s employees took part in the Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza.

A series of investigations found some “neutrality-related issues” at UNRWA, but stressed Israel had not provided conclusive evidence for its headline allegation.

Nevertheless, the UN said in August that nine staff working for UNRWA would be sacked because they may have been involved in the attacks.

Adalah, an Israeli group defending the rights of the Arab minority, reported that Israeli police were raiding six UNRWA-run schools in East Jerusalem.

The organization filed a petition with Israel’s Supreme Court in mid-January, arguing the new legislation against UNRWA violated “fundamental human rights and Israel’s obligations under international law.”