Saudi Arabia could emerge as victor from oil price wars say energy experts

Two pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline were hit in the early morning raid. (AFP/File photo)
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Updated 07 May 2020
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Saudi Arabia could emerge as victor from oil price wars say energy experts

  • ‘At least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia’
  • Recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were ‘an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling’

DUBAI: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.


With gavel in hand, Trump chisels away at the power of a compliant Congress

Updated 5 sec ago
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With gavel in hand, Trump chisels away at the power of a compliant Congress

  • Republicans in control of the House and Senate have shown an unusual willingness to give the president of their party what he wants, regardless of the potential risk to themselves, their constituents and Congress itself.

WASHINGTON: “Mr. President, this is the gavel used to enact the ‘big, beautiful bill,’” House Speaker Mike Johnson said at a White House signing ceremony on the Fourth of July.
“I want you to have it,” he said.
Handing over the gavel delighted President Donald Trump who, seated behind a desk outdoors, immediately tested it out with a few quick thumps.
The moment left a memorable mark on a historic day. The gesture reflected a traditional nod of honor, from one leader to another, a milestone of the Republican Party’s priority legislation becoming law. But the imagery also underscored a symbolic transfer of political power, from Capitol Hill to the White House as a compliant Congress is ceding more and more of its prerogative to the presidency.
Congress gives Trump what he wants
Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, and particularly in the past few weeks, Republicans in control of the House and Senate have shown an unusual willingness to give the president of their party what he wants, regardless of the potential risk to themselves, their constituents and Congress itself.
Republicans raced to put the big package of tax breaks and spending cuts on Trump’s desk by his Independence Day deadline. Senators had quickly confirmed almost all of Trump’s outsider Cabinet nominees despite grave reservations over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary, Pete Hegseth as the Pentagon chief and others. House Republicans pursued Trump’s interest in investigating his perceived foes, including investigating Democratic President Joe Biden’suse of the autopen.
But at the same time, Congress hit the brakes on one of its own priorities, legislation imposing steep sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, after Trump announced he was allowing President Vladimir Putin an additional 50 days to negotiate a peace deal, dashing hopes for a swifter end to the conflict.
This past week, Congress was tested anew, delivering on Trump’s request to rescind some $9 billion that lawmakers had approved but that the administration wanted to eliminate, including money for public broadcasting and overseas aid. It was a rare presidential request, a challenge to the legislative branch’s power of the purse, that has not been used in decades.
The pressure on Republicans is taking its toll
“We’re lawmakers. We should be legislating,” said a defiant Sen. Lisa Murkowksi, R-Alaska, as she refused to support the White House’s demand to rescind money for National Public Radio and others.
“What we’re getting now is a direction from the White House and being told, ‘This is the priority. We want you to execute on it. We’ll be back with you with another round,’” she said. “I don’t accept that.”
Congress, the branch of government the Founding Fathers placed first in the Constitution, is at a familiar crossroads. During the first Trump administration, Republicans frightened by Trump’s angry tweets of disapproval would keep their criticisms private. Those who did speak up — Liz Cheney of Wyoming in the House and Mitt Romney of Utah in the Senate, among others — are gone from Capitol Hill.
One former GOP senator, Jeff Flake of Arizona, who announced in 2017 during Trump’s first term that he would not seek reelection the next year, is imploring Republicans to find a better way.
“The fever still hasn’t broken,” he wrote recently in The New York Times. “In today’s Republican Party, voting your conscience is essentially disqualifying.”
Seeking a ‘normal’ Congress
But this time, the halls of Congress are filled with many Republicans who came of political age with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and owe their ascent to the president himself. Many are emulating his brand and style as they shape their own.
A new generation of GOP leaders, Johnson in the House and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have pulled closer to Trump. They are utilizing the power of the presidency in ways large and small — to broker deals, encourage wayward lawmakers to fall in line, even to set schedules.
Johnson, R-Louisiana, has openly pined for what he calls a “normal Congress.” But short of that, the speaker relies on Trump to help stay on track. When Republicans hit an impasse on cryptocurrency legislation, a Trump priority, it was the president who met with holdouts in the Oval Office late Tuesday night as Johnson called in by phone.
The result is a perceptible imbalance of power as the executive exerts greater authority while the legislative branch dims. The judicial branch has been left to do the heavy lift of checks and balances with the courts processing hundreds of lawsuits over the administration’s actions.
“The genius of our Constitution is the separation of power,” said Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, the former speaker, in an interview on SiriusXM’s “Mornings with Zerlina.”
“That the Republicans in Congress would be so ignoring of the institution that they represent, and that have just melted the power of the incredibly shrinking speakership” and Senate leadership positions, “to do all of these things, to cater to the executive branch,” she said.
Confronting Trump comes with costs
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., endured Trump’s criticism over his opposition to the tax and spending cuts bill. The senator raised concerns about steep cuts to hospitals, but the president threatened to campaign against him. Tillis announced he would not seek reelection in 2026.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, voted against that bill and the rescissions package despite Trump’s threat to campaign against any dissenters.
One Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, appears to be pressing on, unphased. He recently proposed legislation to force the administration to release the Jeffrey Epstein files, something the president had been reluctant to do.
“Nowhere in the Constitution does it say that if the president wants something, you must do it,” said Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, in a Senate speech. “We don’t have to do this. We don’t have to operate under the assumption that this man is uniquely so powerful.”


Renowned Kenyan human rights activist arrested

Updated 19 July 2025
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Renowned Kenyan human rights activist arrested

  • “The police have come to our home and are taking my husband, talking of terrorism and arson!” his wife said
  • Hussein Khalid, director of rights group Vocal Africa, confirmed the arrest on X

NAIROBI: Kenyan human rights campaigner Boniface Mwangi was arrested at his home in the east African country, the latest in a long series of arrests, his wife and an NGO said on Saturday.

The prominent activist and former photojournalist has been detained on many occasions, including in May when he was abducted in Tanzania and allegedly tortured by security forces over several days.

“The police have come to our home and are taking my husband, talking of terrorism and arson! They’ve taken his gadgets and said they are taking him to DCI HQ,” said his wife Njeri Mwangi on X, referring to the headquarters of the Directorate of Criminal Investigations.


The announcement of the arrest, with no clear accusations so far, quickly sparked a wave of condemnation on social media.

Hussein Khalid, director of rights group Vocal Africa, confirmed the arrest on X and said he was following the case “to understand the reasons” for the detention.

The hashtag #FreeBonifaceMwangi was circulating widely on social media.

On May 19, Mwangi was arrested along with award-winning Ugandan journalist and activist Agather Atuhaire in Tanzania’s economic capital, Dar es Salaam.

They were in the country to offer support to Tanzanian opposition figure Tundu Lissu, facing a potential death sentence in a treason trial, ahead of elections in October.

They were detained for several days and both accused police officers of acts of torture and sexual assault, and this week filed a case with the East African Court of Justice (EACJ).

Since the beginning of a large protest movement in Kenya in June 2024, President William Ruto has faced sharp criticism over a series of abductions and police violence.

Human rights organization allege that more than 100 people have been killed since the beginning of last year’s anti-government rallies, which were harshly suppressed.

Protests on July 7 were the deadliest in a year, with at least 38 deaths, including a 12-year-old girl.


UK govt facing legal action over refusal to evacuate sick children from Gaza

Updated 19 July 2025
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UK govt facing legal action over refusal to evacuate sick children from Gaza

  • Lawsuit against Foreign Office, Home Office revolves around three children requiring treatment 
  • UK govt says that it already contributes significant sums to aid children in Gaza

LONDON: The UK government is facing a legal challenge over its decision not to medically evacuate critically ill Palestinian children from Gaza, amid mounting pressure from campaigners and humanitarian groups, it was reported on Saturday.

According to a report by The Guardian, the legal action, which has been brought by law firm Leigh Day on behalf of three young children, will argue that British ministers have failed to account for the dire lack of medical options in Gaza, where thousands remain in urgent need of life-saving treatment.

The UK government has already supported healthcare for over half a million people in the Palestinian territories, including through field hospitals and medical supplies, and has facilitated access to the UK for some children through privately funded initiatives.

However, the claimants argue that current arrangements fall short of addressing the humanitarian emergency.

“The UK government has explained its failure to facilitate medical evacuations from Gaza on the basis that it supports treatment options in Gaza and the surrounding region and that there are visas available for privately funded medical treatment in the UK. However, these mechanisms are profoundly inadequate to meet the urgent needs of children in Gaza,” said Carolin Ott, the Leigh Day lawyer leading the legal action.

The case has been filed against both the Foreign Office and the Home Office, and revolves around three children, one aged two, and two siblings aged five, who require urgent medical attention unavailable in Gaza.

The two-year-old, referred to as Child Y, suffers from an arteriovenous malformation in his cheek, which causes daily bleeding and has left him in critical condition.

The other two children, both known as Child S, have the chronic kidney condition cystinosis nephropathy that has already led to kidney failure. One of the siblings can no longer walk, according to The Guardian report.

Campaigners say the UK’s current approach contrasts strongly with its actions in other conflicts, notably its evacuation of children during the Bosnian war and, more recently, from Ukraine.

The government, however, points to its ongoing humanitarian contributions, including a £7.5 million ($10 million) medical support package announced in May, as well as its support for Project Pure Hope, a UK-based initiative that successfully arranged for two children from Gaza to receive treatment in Britain earlier this year.

“We have helped several children with complex paediatric conditions access privately funded medical care in the UK, supporting an initiative by Project Pure Hope,” a government spokesperson said.

Legal documents submitted as part of the action reportedly indicate that Project Pure Hope requested the establishment of a UK-funded evacuation route from Gaza for medical cases, but that request was declined.

A spokesperson for the government added: “We have been clear the situation in Gaza is intolerable and that there must be an immediate ceasefire. We urge Israel to let vital humanitarian aid in and allow Gazans to receive urgent healthcare, including allowing the sick and wounded to temporarily leave the Gaza Strip to receive treatment.”

According to health officials in Gaza, more than 17,000 of the 58,000 Palestinians killed since Oct. 7, 2023, have been children.

The World Health Organization estimates that up to 12,500 patients in Gaza require evacuation for treatment.

As of April 10, over 7,200 patients had been moved out of the territory to destinations including Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, the EU, and the US. Nearly 5,000 of those evacuated were children.

Dr. Hani Isleem, project coordinator for Medecins Sans Frontieres, which has helped evacuate 22 patients, said that international reluctance to do more remained a serious obstacle.

“Some countries are reluctant to take in patients, fearing they might be perceived as facilitating ‘forced migration’ or as taking on the burden of the patients’ extended stay,” he said.

The UK government has until July 28 to respond to the legal pre-action letter, The Guardian’s report added.


Ukraine proposes fresh peace talks with Russia next week

Updated 19 July 2025
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Ukraine proposes fresh peace talks with Russia next week

  • Zelensky said: “The momentum of the negotiations must be stepped up”
  • “A meeting at the leadership level is needed to truly ensure peace — lasting peace”

KYIV: Kyiv has proposed to Moscow a new round of peace talks next week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday, after negotiations stalled in early June.

Two rounds of talks in Istanbul between Moscow and Kyiv have failed to result in any progress toward a ceasefire, instead yielding large-scale prisoner exchanges and deals to return the bodies of killed soldiers.

“Security Council Secretary Umerov also reported that he had proposed the next meeting with the Russian side for next week,” Zelensky said in his evening address. “The momentum of the negotiations must be stepped up,” he added.

Zelensky reiterated his readiness to have a face-to-face sitdown with Putin. “A meeting at the leadership level is needed to truly ensure peace — lasting peace,” he said.

At talks last month, Russia outlined a list of hard-line demands, including calls for Ukraine to cede more territory and to reject all forms of Western military support.

Kyiv dismissed them as unacceptable and at the time questioned the point of further negotiations if Moscow was not willing to make concessions.

The Kremlin said earlier this month it was ready to continue talks with Ukraine after US President Donald Trump gave Russia 50 days to strike a peace deal or face sanctions.

Trump also pledged to supply Kyiv with new military aid, sponsored by NATO allies, as its cities suffer ever-increasing Russian aerial attacks.

Russian strikes on Ukraine claimed another three lives Saturday.


Police arrest more than 50 Palestine Action demonstrators in London

Updated 19 July 2025
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Police arrest more than 50 Palestine Action demonstrators in London

  • Protests against ban on group held across the UK including in Manchester, Edinburgh and Bristol
  • Hearing into legal challenge to the group’s terrorism designation to be held Monday

LONDON: More than 50 protesters have been arrested in central London supporting the banned group Palestine Action. 

Protests were held across the UK on Saturday, including in Manchester, Edinburgh and Bristol after the group was outlawed as a terrorist organization.

The main demonstration was in Parliament Square in Westminster, where numerous people held up signs reading “I oppose genocide, I support Palestine Action.”

Supporting a proscribed group in the UK is illegal. The protesters in London were detained under Section 13 of the UK’s Terrorism Act, which carries a possible jail term of six years.

On X the Metropolitan Police stated: “55 people were arrested in Parliament Square for displaying placards in support of Palestine Action which is a proscribed group.”

Eight people were also arrested in Truro, Cornwall for a similar protest. Several others were detained in Manchester.

Defend Our Juries, the group behind the protests, said before the demonstrations that 120 people in the UK had been arrested for supporting Palestine Action so far.

The group was banned after activists broke into a Royal Air Force base at Brize Norton on June 20, causing an estimated £7 million ($9.38 million) of damage to military aircraft.

Membership of direct support for Palestine Action now carries a prison term of up to 14 years. Displaying the group’s name on clothing could lead to a six-month jail sentence.

A hearing into a permission to bring a judicial review into the ban will be held at the High Court in London on Monday.