South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

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People flee the violence in Sudan using trucks, buses, cars and horse-drawn carts. The exodus threatens to aggravate the already dire situation of refugee camps in neighboring South Sudan. (AFP)
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Updated 01 May 2023
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South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

  • Government and military officials wary of economic and security costs of prolonged crisis to the north
  • Analysts say former rebel groups could be dragged into the conflict, undermining the nation’s fragile peace

JUBA, South Sudan: The government of South Sudan has expressed deep concern over the fighting in neighboring Sudan, which it fears could spill across the border and threaten its fragile peace process.

The clashes between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group in Khartoum hold the potential to ignite a civil war, into which neighboring South Sudan could get sucked.




Camps for internally displaced people in South Sudan, such as this one in the northern city of Bentiu, risk being swamped further by people fleeing the war in neighboring Sudan. (AFP)

There have been multiple truce efforts since fighting broke out on April 15 between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by his deputy turned rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

As close neighbors, with a long history of conflict and interdependence, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan is likely to spill over into South Sudan, with potentially dire consequences.

One major concern for South Sudanese officials is the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict to the north.

Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.

INNUMBERS

2011 South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9.

11 million Estimated South Sudanese citizens in need of humanitarian assistanc2e.

$1,600 Real gross domestic product per capita (2017).

On Friday, the price of South Sudan’s oil exports fell from $100 per barrel to $70. Michael Makuei, the country’s information minister, accused oil companies of exploiting the crisis to drive down prices. Experts say the situation in Sudan could have long-term implications for South Sudan’s oil industry.

“The situation is alarming, as any spillover from Sudan will be a very big issue for us here and this is why President Salva Kiir has been calling for a ceasefire so that normalcy returns to Sudan,” Deng Dau Deng Malek, acting minister of foreign affairs, told Arab News.

 

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“South Sudan is very concerned about the situation in Sudan, especially given our shared border and historical ties. Any escalation of conflict in Sudan could have serious consequences for our country.”

Maj. Gen. Charles Machieng Kuol, a senior military officer in South Sudan, also weighed in on the potential harm that a prolonged conflict might cause, emphasizing the need for stability in the region.

“We have forces which have been deployed along the borders before,” he told Arab News. “Our country is preparing now to protect the borderlines, as we don’t want this war to escalate to our country.”

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Sudan has lived through multiple civil wars since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956.

Its first north-south civil war broke out several months before independence on Jan. 1, 1956 and lasted until 1972. It pitted successive governments in the Muslim-dominated north against separatist rebels in the predominantly Christian south.

The 17-year conflict ended with a treaty under which the south was granted autonomy. However, the agreement collapsed in 1983 after 11 years of relative peace when President Jaafar Nimeiri decided to revoke the south’s autonomous status.

Sudan’s second civil war erupted in 1983 following an uprising by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army led by John Garang. In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir took power in a coup and cracked down on the southern rebellion.




Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's former ruler, waves a walking stick during a visit in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur province on September 21, 2017. He was accompanied by paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L). (AFP File)

he war ended on Jan. 9, 2005, when Garang signed a peace accord with Al-Bashir’s government. The cornerstone of the accord was a protocol granting it six years of self-rule ahead of a 2011 referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede.

South Sudan proclaimed independence on July 9, 2011, splitting Africa’s biggest country in two. As South Sudan separated, conflict resumed in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile in the rump state of Sudan in areas held by former guerrillas, now called the SPLM-North.

The presence of these former South Sudanese rebels close to the shared border complicates the current crisis, as they could easily be dragged into the conflict.

Manasseh Zindo, an independent analyst from South Sudan and a former delegate to the South Sudan peace process, says the involvement of these rebel leaders could have catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan.

 

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“Malik Agar is the leader of the SPLM-North. He is from the Blue Nile State near the Nuba Mountains in Sudan. He was part of South Sudan during the liberation struggle,” Zindo told Arab News.

“After the secession of South Sudan, the boundary delineation put him in Sudan. He is now part of the sovereign government in Khartoum. If he takes sides in the current conflict in Sudan, it could spill into South Sudan because of his links with South Sudan.”

Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual and Gen. Johnson Olony, two South Sudanese military officials who have shifted allegiance between different factions, are also based close to the Sudanese border.

Both men are leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang, a faction that broke away from Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO.




Rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), a South Sudanese anti-government force, patrol in their base in Panyume, on the South Sudanese side of the border with Uganda. (AFP File)

“If Gen. Simon or Gen. Johnson can be dragged into the Sudanese conflict, it can spill into South Sudan with catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan,” said Zindo.

The South Sudanese government is now on high alert and has urged citizens living close to the border to be vigilant and report any suspicious activities. It has also called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Sudan, adding that it is willing to play the role of mediator if both parties agree.

“The president (Salva Kiir) has been calling for a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities for humanitarian assistance to reach the needy,” said Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs.

“He talked directly to President Al-Burhan and Deputy President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a number of times to appeal to them so that they observe the cessation of hostilities and return to the negotiation table.”




In this picture taken on August 17, 2019, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit is seated next to  
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (front left) during a ceremony to sign an agreement paving the way for a transition to civilian rule. Kiir has appealed to Al-Burhan and rival general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to stop fighting and resolve their problems peacefully. (AFP)

The UN and other international bodies have also expressed concern about the situation in Sudan and its potential impact on South Sudan. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says the conflict in Sudan has already forced thousands of people to flee into South Sudan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

South Sudan is still recovering from a six-year civil war that ended in 2018, which left more than 380,000 people dead and displaced millions. The country is now trying to implement a peace agreement that was signed in September 2018, but progress has been slow, with sporadic clashes reported in different parts of the country.

As the situation deteriorates, Sudanese refugees are flooding across the border into South Sudan. International aid agencies are calling for urgent action to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to UNHCR, there are currently more than 800,000 South Sudanese refugees in Sudan, a quarter of whom are in Khartoum and directly impacted by the fighting.

Egypt, Sudan’s northern neighbor, said on Thursday that at least 14,000 Sudanese refugees had crossed its border since the fighting erupted, as well as 2,000 people from 50 other countries.

At least 20,000 people have escaped into Chad, 4,000 into South Sudan, 3,500 into Ethiopia and 3,000 into the Central African Republic, according to the UN, which warns that if the fighting continues as many as 270,000 people could flee.

Gavin Kelleher, a humanitarian analyst for the Norwegian Refugee Council in South Sudan, said that the country is ill-prepared to absorb the expected influx from the north.

 

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“The number of new arrivals is still unclear, but they are very likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it’s really important that we put the wheels in motion now for an effective humanitarian response,” Kelleher told Arab News.

“About 75 percent of South Sudan’s population are assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance already, and the majority of the country has emergency or critical levels of food insecurity.

“Further shocks such as waves of new arrivals from Sudan are stretching the limited amount of resources available to new levels.”

 


Black boxes from India plane crash under study to ascertain cause of the disaster that killed 270

Updated 56 min ago
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Black boxes from India plane crash under study to ascertain cause of the disaster that killed 270

  • A former pilot and an aviation expert said the recovery of the flight data and cockpit voice recorders, or black boxes, are crucial to piece together the sequence of events

NEW DELHI: Investigators in India are studying the black boxes of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner after recovering them from the aircraft wreckage to ascertain the cause of last week’s plane crash that left at least 270 people dead.
The black boxes will provide cockpit conversations and data related to the plane’s engine and control settings to investigators and help them in determining the cause of the crash.
The London-bound Air India aircraft, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, crashed on a medical college hostel soon after taking off from the western city of Ahmedabad. Only one passenger survived the crash, while 241 people on board and 29 on the ground were killed in one of India’s worst aviation disaster in decades.
Experts from India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau are probing the crash with assistance from the UK, the US and officials from Boeing.
Black box data is crucial
Amit Singh, a former pilot and an aviation expert, said the recovery of the flight data and cockpit voice recorders, or black boxes, are crucial to piece together the sequence of events.
The cockpit voice recorder records pilots’ conversation, emergency alarms and any distress signal made before a crash. The plane’s digital flight data recorder stores information related to engine and control settings. Both devices are designed to survive a crash.
“The data will reveal everything,” Singh said, adding that the technical details could be corroborated by the cockpit voice recorder that would help investigators know of any communication between air traffic control and the pilots.
India’s aviation regulatory body has said the aircraft made a mayday call before the crash.
Singh said the investigating authorities will scan CCTV footage of the nearby area and speak with witnesses to get to the root cause of the crash.
Additionally, Singh said, the investigators will also study the pilot training records, total load of the aircraft, thrust issues related to the plane’s engine, as well as its worthiness in terms of past performances and any previously reported issues.
Investigation into the crash could take time
Aurobindo Handa, former director general of India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau, said the investigators across the world follow a standard UN-prescribed Manual of Accident Investigation, also called “DOC 9756,” which outlines detailed procedures to arrive at the most probable cause of a crash.
Handa said the investigation into last week’s crash would likely be a long process as the aircraft was badly charred. He added that ascertaining the condition of the black boxes recovered from the crash site was vital as the heat generated from the crash could be possibly higher than the bearable threshold of the device.
The Indian government has set up a separate, high-level committee to examine the causes leading to the crash and formulate procedures to prevent and handle aircraft emergencies in the future. The committee is expected to file a preliminary report within three months.
Authorities have also begun inspecting and carrying out additional maintenance and checks of Air India’s entire fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliners to prevent any future incident. Air India has 33 Dreamliners in its fleet.
The plane that crashed was 12 years old. Boeing planes have been plagued by safety issues on other types of aircraft. There are currently around 1,200 of the 787 Dreamliner aircraft worldwide and this was the first deadly crash in 16 years of operation, according to experts.


Russian media say top official is in Pyongyang again to meet North Korean leader

Updated 17 June 2025
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Russian media say top official is in Pyongyang again to meet North Korean leader

SEOUL: A top Russian security official traveled to Pyongyang for the second time this month for another meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Russian state media reported Tuesday, the latest display of the countries’ deepening ties amid President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Russia’s Tass news agency said Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu arrived in the North Korean capital on an unspecified “special” mission from Putin and was expected to meet with Kim. North Korean state media didn’t immediately confirm the visit.
Kim has supplied Russia with thousands of troops and large shipments of military equipment, including artillery and ballistic missiles, to support its military operation in Ukraine. Washington and Seoul have expressed concern that, in return, Kim may seek Russian technology transfers that could enhance the threat posed by his nuclear-armed military.
In April, Pyongyang and Moscow officially confirmed North Korean troops’ deployment to Russia for the first time, saying that soldiers of the two countries were fighting alongside each other to repel a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk border region. Putin then thanked North Korea’s participation in the war and promised not to forget their sacrifices.
In their previous meeting on June 4, Kim told Shoigu that his government would “unconditionally support” Russia over the war in Ukraine and other critical international issues as they discussed strengthening the strategic partnership between their countries, according to North Korean state media. Tass then reported that Shoigu and Kim also discussed prospects for rebuilding the Kursk region and outlined steps to commemorate the combat contributions of North Korean soldiers.


India warns citizens to leave Tehran as some flee Iran

Updated 17 June 2025
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India warns citizens to leave Tehran as some flee Iran

NEW DELHI: India on Tuesday urged its citizens to leave Tehran, while some nationals have already fled across the Iranian border as the country comes under Israeli bombardment.
With Israel vowing to keep up its attacks four days after launching its assault on Iran, which has launched retaliatory strikes, New Delhi said Indian students have already left Tehran.
“Residents who are self sufficient in terms of transport have also been advised to move out of the city in view of the developing situation,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
The warning came after Israel’s ally US President Donald Trump said “everyone” should “immediately” leave the Iranian capital, which is home to nearly 10 million.
New Delhi said “some Indians have been facilitated to leave Iran through the border with Armenia,” hundreds of kilometers (miles) northwest of Tehran.
The foreign ministry did not detail how many of its citizens have been affected in Iran, where there are around 10,000 Indians according to government data last year.
Thousands of Indians are also in Israel, and New Delhi has issued warnings for its citizens there to “stay vigilant.”


Fast-moving brush fire on Hawaii’s Maui island evacuates about 50 people. No structures have burned

Updated 17 June 2025
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Fast-moving brush fire on Hawaii’s Maui island evacuates about 50 people. No structures have burned

  • Officials said it was 85 percent contained as of Monday morning

HONOLULU: A fast-moving Hawaii brush fire fueled by fierce winds forced the evacuation of about 50 Maui residents on the opposite side of the same island where a devastating blaze killed over 100 people two years ago.
The fire started Sunday in a sparsely populated area with land set aside for Native Hawaiians.
Here’s what we know about the fire so far:
Fire size now estimated at 330 acres
The Kahikinui was initially estimated at 500 acres (202 hectares), but aerial surveys overnight put the estimate at about 330 acres (134 hectares), Maui’s fire department said. The fire is 85 percent contained.
The remote, challenging terrain made it difficult to estimate the fire’s size, the department said in a statement. A police drone showed hot spots, but none flared overnight.
No injuries or structural damage was reported. Weather conditions were mostly sunny Monday with a high of 67 degrees Fahrenheit (19 degrees Celsius) and east winds of about 15 mph (24 kph), gusting up to about 25 mph (40 kph).
The US Drought Monitor says all of Maui is in drought.
Authorities conducted door-to-door evacuations and part of a highway remains closed.
Flashbacks to an earlier fire
Warren Aganos was on his family’s Hawaiian Homelands lot preparing to go on a Father’s Day hunt when a neighbor called him around 9 a.m. telling him a fire had broken out.
“I hung up and raced out, I didn’t let her finish,” said Aganos, who has been slowly rebuilding the three structures his family lost in a 2016 brush fire that burned over 5,000 acres (2,000 hectares) in the same area. “I was thinking about the last one,” he said. “It was super emotional.”
Aganos said he rushed in his truck to make sure first responders knew where the community’s water storage tanks were before navigating Kahikinui’s dirt roads down to the highway where he could see smoke billowing over the hillside. The community lacks electrical and water infrastructure, and some of the roads are only navigable by four-wheel drive.
State and local leaders signed emergency proclamations so that the Hawaii National Guard can help and counties can access assistance.
What is the region like?
Kahikinui is less populated and developed than Lahaina, which was the Hawaiian Kingdom’s capital in the 1800s and is now a popular tourist destination. Kahikinui was used for cattle ranching for many years and is near a state forest reserve.
The fire department sent engines, tankers and a helicopter to battle the blaze. Three bulldozers cut firebreaks in the lower part of the community, Desiree Graham, co-chair of Kahikinui’s firewise committee, said.
The area has 104 Hawaiian homeland lots of 10 to 20 acres (4 to 8 hectares) each. About 40 lots have homes, including 15 with full-time residents. Some lots have more than one home, Graham said.
A state agency issues lot leases under a program Congress created in 1921 to help Native Hawaiians become economically self-sufficient. Those with at least 50 percent Hawaiian blood quantum can apply for a 99-year lease for $1 a year.
Fire devastated Lahaina nearly two years ago
Maui is still recovering from the massive inferno that enveloped Lahaina in August 2023.
That fire was the deadliest in the US in more than a century. It destroyed thousands of properties and caused an estimated $5.5 billion in damage. University of Hawaii researchers say unemployment and poverty rose after the blaze.
The Kahikinui fire may seem small compared to continental US fires, but it’s significant for an island of 735 square miles (1,903 square kilometers).
Other Western fires
Crews also are battling wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, around the Great Basin, in California and the Rockies.
National Weather Service forecasters and federal land managers have warned in recent weeks that fire danger is escalating in many places amid rising daytime temperatures and single-digit humidity levels.
The risks won’t start to wane — at least in the southwestern US — until the monsoon starts to kick in, bringing much-needed rain. In southern New Mexico, a wildfire ballooned to nearly 30 square miles (78 square kilometers) over the weekend in the Gila National Forest.
The flames forced the evacuations of homes that dot the mountains north of Silver City, blocked access to the Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument and prompted air quality warnings as smoke drifted north. Campgrounds and access points to the Continental Divide National Scenic Trail also were closed.
In Oregon, several dozen homes in Wasco County were destroyed by a fire that started last Wednesday. Some evacuations remained, but fire managers said Monday that the threat to structures had diminished.
So far this year, the nation has seen double the number of fires as last year but the acreage is less, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. More than 2,700 wildland firefighters and support personnel were assigned to 15 large wildfires across the country.


Despite law, US TikTok ban likely to remain on hold

Updated 17 June 2025
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Despite law, US TikTok ban likely to remain on hold

  • Trump has repeatedly downplayed risks that TikTok is in danger, saying he remains confident of finding a buyer for the app’s US business

SAN FRANCISCO, United States: US President Donald Trump is widely expected to extend the Thursday deadline for TikTok to find a non-Chinese buyer or face a ban in the United States.
It would be the third time Trump put off enforcing a federal law requiring its sale or ban, which was to take effect the day before his January inauguration.
“I have a little warm spot in my heart for TikTok,” Trump said in an NBC News interview in early May.
“If it needs an extension, I would be willing to give it an extension.”
Trump said a group of purchasers is ready to pay TikTok owner ByteDance “a lot of money” for the video-clip-sharing sensation’s US operations.
Trump has repeatedly downplayed risks that TikTok is in danger, saying he remains confident of finding a buyer for the app’s US business.
The president is “just not motivated to do anything about TikTok,” said independent analyst Rob Enderle.
“Unless they get on his bad side, TikTok is probably going to be in pretty good shape.”
Trump had long supported a ban or divestment, but reversed his position and vowed to defend the platform after coming to believe it helped him win young voters’ support in the November election.
“Trump’s not really doing great on his election promises,” Enderle maintained.
“This could be one that he can actually deliver on.”
Motivated by national security fears and belief in Washington that TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government, the ban took effect on January 19, one day before Trump’s inauguration, with ByteDance having made no attempt to find a suitor.
TikTok “has become a symbol of the US-China tech rivalry; a flashpoint in the new Cold War for digital control,” said Shweta Singh, an assistant professor of information systems at Warwick Business School in Britain.
“National security, economic policy, and digital governance are colliding,” Singh added.
The Republican president announced an initial 75-day delay of the ban upon taking office.
A second extension pushed the deadline to June 19.
As of Monday, there was no word of a TikTok sale in the works.
Trump said in April that China would have agreed to a deal on the sale of TikTok if it were not for a dispute over tariffs imposed by Washington on Beijing.
ByteDance has confirmed talks with the US government, saying key matters needed to be resolved and that any deal would be “subject to approval under Chinese law.”
Possible solutions reportedly include seeing existing US investors in ByteDance roll over their stakes into a new independent global TikTok company.
Additional US investors, including Oracle and private equity firm Blackstone, would be brought on to reduce ByteDance’s share in the new TikTok.
Much of TikTok’s US activity is already housed on Oracle servers, and the company’s chairman, Larry Ellison, is a longtime Trump ally.
Uncertainty remains, particularly over what would happen to TikTok’s valuable algorithm.
“TikTok without its algorithm is like Harry Potter without his wand — it’s simply not as powerful,” said Forrester Principal Analyst Kelsey Chickering.
Meanwhile, it appears TikTok is continuing with business as usual.
TikTok on Monday introduced a new “Symphony” suite of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools for advertisers to turn words or photos into video snippets for the platform.
“With TikTok Symphony, we’re empowering a global community of marketers, brands, and creators to tell stories that resonate, scale, and drive impact on TikTok,” global head of creative and brand products Andy Yang said in a release.