South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

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People flee the violence in Sudan using trucks, buses, cars and horse-drawn carts. The exodus threatens to aggravate the already dire situation of refugee camps in neighboring South Sudan. (AFP)
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Updated 01 May 2023
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South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

  • Government and military officials wary of economic and security costs of prolonged crisis to the north
  • Analysts say former rebel groups could be dragged into the conflict, undermining the nation’s fragile peace

JUBA, South Sudan: The government of South Sudan has expressed deep concern over the fighting in neighboring Sudan, which it fears could spill across the border and threaten its fragile peace process.

The clashes between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group in Khartoum hold the potential to ignite a civil war, into which neighboring South Sudan could get sucked.




Camps for internally displaced people in South Sudan, such as this one in the northern city of Bentiu, risk being swamped further by people fleeing the war in neighboring Sudan. (AFP)

There have been multiple truce efforts since fighting broke out on April 15 between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by his deputy turned rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

As close neighbors, with a long history of conflict and interdependence, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan is likely to spill over into South Sudan, with potentially dire consequences.

One major concern for South Sudanese officials is the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict to the north.

Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.

INNUMBERS

2011 South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9.

11 million Estimated South Sudanese citizens in need of humanitarian assistanc2e.

$1,600 Real gross domestic product per capita (2017).

On Friday, the price of South Sudan’s oil exports fell from $100 per barrel to $70. Michael Makuei, the country’s information minister, accused oil companies of exploiting the crisis to drive down prices. Experts say the situation in Sudan could have long-term implications for South Sudan’s oil industry.

“The situation is alarming, as any spillover from Sudan will be a very big issue for us here and this is why President Salva Kiir has been calling for a ceasefire so that normalcy returns to Sudan,” Deng Dau Deng Malek, acting minister of foreign affairs, told Arab News.

 

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“South Sudan is very concerned about the situation in Sudan, especially given our shared border and historical ties. Any escalation of conflict in Sudan could have serious consequences for our country.”

Maj. Gen. Charles Machieng Kuol, a senior military officer in South Sudan, also weighed in on the potential harm that a prolonged conflict might cause, emphasizing the need for stability in the region.

“We have forces which have been deployed along the borders before,” he told Arab News. “Our country is preparing now to protect the borderlines, as we don’t want this war to escalate to our country.”

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Sudan has lived through multiple civil wars since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956.

Its first north-south civil war broke out several months before independence on Jan. 1, 1956 and lasted until 1972. It pitted successive governments in the Muslim-dominated north against separatist rebels in the predominantly Christian south.

The 17-year conflict ended with a treaty under which the south was granted autonomy. However, the agreement collapsed in 1983 after 11 years of relative peace when President Jaafar Nimeiri decided to revoke the south’s autonomous status.

Sudan’s second civil war erupted in 1983 following an uprising by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army led by John Garang. In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir took power in a coup and cracked down on the southern rebellion.




Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's former ruler, waves a walking stick during a visit in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur province on September 21, 2017. He was accompanied by paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L). (AFP File)

he war ended on Jan. 9, 2005, when Garang signed a peace accord with Al-Bashir’s government. The cornerstone of the accord was a protocol granting it six years of self-rule ahead of a 2011 referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede.

South Sudan proclaimed independence on July 9, 2011, splitting Africa’s biggest country in two. As South Sudan separated, conflict resumed in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile in the rump state of Sudan in areas held by former guerrillas, now called the SPLM-North.

The presence of these former South Sudanese rebels close to the shared border complicates the current crisis, as they could easily be dragged into the conflict.

Manasseh Zindo, an independent analyst from South Sudan and a former delegate to the South Sudan peace process, says the involvement of these rebel leaders could have catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan.

 

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“Malik Agar is the leader of the SPLM-North. He is from the Blue Nile State near the Nuba Mountains in Sudan. He was part of South Sudan during the liberation struggle,” Zindo told Arab News.

“After the secession of South Sudan, the boundary delineation put him in Sudan. He is now part of the sovereign government in Khartoum. If he takes sides in the current conflict in Sudan, it could spill into South Sudan because of his links with South Sudan.”

Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual and Gen. Johnson Olony, two South Sudanese military officials who have shifted allegiance between different factions, are also based close to the Sudanese border.

Both men are leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang, a faction that broke away from Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO.




Rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), a South Sudanese anti-government force, patrol in their base in Panyume, on the South Sudanese side of the border with Uganda. (AFP File)

“If Gen. Simon or Gen. Johnson can be dragged into the Sudanese conflict, it can spill into South Sudan with catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan,” said Zindo.

The South Sudanese government is now on high alert and has urged citizens living close to the border to be vigilant and report any suspicious activities. It has also called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Sudan, adding that it is willing to play the role of mediator if both parties agree.

“The president (Salva Kiir) has been calling for a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities for humanitarian assistance to reach the needy,” said Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs.

“He talked directly to President Al-Burhan and Deputy President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a number of times to appeal to them so that they observe the cessation of hostilities and return to the negotiation table.”




In this picture taken on August 17, 2019, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit is seated next to  
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (front left) during a ceremony to sign an agreement paving the way for a transition to civilian rule. Kiir has appealed to Al-Burhan and rival general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to stop fighting and resolve their problems peacefully. (AFP)

The UN and other international bodies have also expressed concern about the situation in Sudan and its potential impact on South Sudan. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says the conflict in Sudan has already forced thousands of people to flee into South Sudan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

South Sudan is still recovering from a six-year civil war that ended in 2018, which left more than 380,000 people dead and displaced millions. The country is now trying to implement a peace agreement that was signed in September 2018, but progress has been slow, with sporadic clashes reported in different parts of the country.

As the situation deteriorates, Sudanese refugees are flooding across the border into South Sudan. International aid agencies are calling for urgent action to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to UNHCR, there are currently more than 800,000 South Sudanese refugees in Sudan, a quarter of whom are in Khartoum and directly impacted by the fighting.

Egypt, Sudan’s northern neighbor, said on Thursday that at least 14,000 Sudanese refugees had crossed its border since the fighting erupted, as well as 2,000 people from 50 other countries.

At least 20,000 people have escaped into Chad, 4,000 into South Sudan, 3,500 into Ethiopia and 3,000 into the Central African Republic, according to the UN, which warns that if the fighting continues as many as 270,000 people could flee.

Gavin Kelleher, a humanitarian analyst for the Norwegian Refugee Council in South Sudan, said that the country is ill-prepared to absorb the expected influx from the north.

 

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“The number of new arrivals is still unclear, but they are very likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it’s really important that we put the wheels in motion now for an effective humanitarian response,” Kelleher told Arab News.

“About 75 percent of South Sudan’s population are assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance already, and the majority of the country has emergency or critical levels of food insecurity.

“Further shocks such as waves of new arrivals from Sudan are stretching the limited amount of resources available to new levels.”

 


Tens of thousands join pro-Palestinian marches across Europe

People attend a pro-Palestinians demonstration in Berlin, Saturday, June 21, 2025. (AP)
Updated 7 sec ago
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Tens of thousands join pro-Palestinian marches across Europe

  • Saturday’s marches comes amid heightened global tensions as the United States mulls joining Israel’s strikes against Iran

LONDON: Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters marched in European cities Saturday calling for an end to the war in Gaza, amid concerns the Iran-Israel conflict could spark wider regional devastation.
In London, AFP journalists saw tens of thousands of protesters, who waved Palestinian flags as they marched through the British capital clad in keffiyeh scarves.
In Berlin, more than 10,000 people gathered in the center of the city in support of Gaza, according to police figures.
And in the Swiss capital Bern, march organizers estimated that 20,000 people rallied in front of the national parliament, urging the government to back a ceasefire.
There have been monthly protests in the British capital since the start of the 20-month-long war between Israel and Hamas, which has ravaged Gaza.
This Saturday, protesters there carried signs including “Stop arming Israel” and “No war on Iran” as they marched in the sweltering heat.
“It’s important to remember that people are suffering in Gaza. I fear all the focus will be on Iran now,” said 34-year-old Harry Baker.
“I don’t have great love for the Iranian regime, but we are now in a dangerous situation.” This was his third pro-Palestinian protest, he added.

Saturday’s marches comes amid heightened global tensions as the United States mulls joining Israel’s strikes against Iran.
Tehran said Saturday that more than 400 people had been killed in Iran since Israel launched strikes last week claiming its arch-foe was close to acquiring a nuclear weapon, which Iran denies.
Some 25 people have been killed in Israel, according to official figures.
One marcher in London, a 31-year-old Iranian student who did not want to share her name, told AFP she had family in Iran and was “scared.”
“I’m worried about my country. I know the regime is not good but it’s still my country. I’m scared,” she said.
Gaza is suffering from famine-like conditions according to UN agencies in the region following an Israeli aid blockade.
Gaza’s civil defense agency has reported that hundreds have been killed by Israeli forces while trying to reach the US- and Israeli-backed aid distribution sites.
“People need to keep their eyes on Gaza. That’s where the genocide is happening,” said 60-year-old protester Nicky Marcus.

In Berlin, demonstrators gathered mid-afternoon close to the parliament, some chanting “Germany finances, Israel bombs.”
“You can’t sit on the sofa and be silent. Now is the time when we all need to speak up,” said protester Gundula, who did not want to give her second name.
For Marwan Radwan, the point of the protest was to bring attention to the “genocide currently taking place” and the “dirty work” being done by the German government.
In Bern, demonstrators carried banners calling on the federal government to intervene in the war in Gaza, expressing solidarity with Palestinians.
The rally there was called by organizations including Amnesty International, the Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Swiss Trade Union Federation.
Slogans included “Stop the occupation,” “Stop the starvation, stop the violence,” and “Right to self-determination.”
Some marchers chanted: “We are all the children of Gaza.”
The overall death toll in Gaza since the war broke out has reached at least 55,637 people, according to the health ministry.
Israel has denied it is carrying out a genocide and says it aims to wipe out Hamas after the Islamist group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people.

 


Belarus opposition leader freed from jail after US mediation

Updated 21 June 2025
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Belarus opposition leader freed from jail after US mediation

  • His wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said the US helped broker the deal and thanked US President Donald Trump
  • Tikhanovsky, 46, had been imprisoned for more than five years

WARSAW: Belarus’s top jailed opposition leader Sergei Tikhanovsky was freed alongside over a dozen other political prisoners on Saturday in a surprise release hailed as a “symbol of hope.”

His wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who took the mantle of the opposition after his jailing, said the United States helped broker the deal and thanked US President Donald Trump.

Tikhanovsky, 46, had been imprisoned for more than five years.

He planned to run against incumbent Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko in the August 2020 presidential election, but was arrested and detained weeks before the vote.

Svetlana — a political novice at the time of his arrest — took his place in the polls.

She posted a video on Saturday of her embracing Tikhanovsky after his release with the caption: “FREE.”

“It’s hard to describe the joy in my heart,” she said in a post on X.

Thirteen others were released, including Radio Liberty journalist Igor Karnei, who was arrested in 2023 and jailed for participating in an “extremist” organization.

They have now been transferred from Belarus to Lithuania, where they are receiving “proper care,” Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys said.

The announcement came just hours after Lukashenko met US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Minsk, the highest profile visit of a US official to the authoritarian state in years.

Belarus, ruled by Lukashenko since 1994, has outlawed all genuine opposition parties and is the only European country to retain the death penalty as a punishment.

The eastern European country still holds over 1,000 political prisoners in its jails, according to Viasna.

Swedish-Belarusian citizen Galina Krasnyanskaya, arrested in 2023 for allegedly supporting Ukraine, was also freed, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.

The release comes amid a broader warming of relations between the United States and Belarus’s chief ally Russia under Trump.

Since taking office, the Republican has engaged in direct talks with Vladimir Putin, ending his predecessor’s policy of isolating the Russian president.

Tikhanovsky was for years held incommunicado, and in 2023 his wife was told that he had “died.”

In a video published by Viasna on Saturday, he appeared almost unrecognizable, his head shaven and face emaciated.

Tikhanovsky was sentenced in 2021 to 18 years in prison for “organizing riots” and “inciting hatred” and then to 18 months extra for “insubordination.”

A charismatic activist, Tikhanovsky drew the ire of authorities for describing Lukashenko as a “cockroach” and his campaign slogan was “Stop the cockroach.”

Lukashenko claimed a landslide victory in the 2020 election, a result that sparked massive opposition protests which authorities violently suppressed.

The Belarusian autocrat claimed a record seventh term in elections earlier this year that observers blasted as a farce.

Fellow Belarusian political activists and foreign politicians welcomed the release.

Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the “free world” needed Tikhanovsky.

“My sincerest joy goes out to you, Tikhanovskaya and your entire family,” he wrote on X.

Former Belarusian culture minister Pavel Latushko, who supported the 2020 protests against Lukashenko, said all those released had been jailed illegally and hailed Tikhanovsky’s release as an “important moment.”

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed Tikhanovsky’s release and called for Belarus to free its other political prisoners.

“This is fantastic news and a powerful symbol of hope for all the political prisoners suffering under the brutal Lukashenka regime,” she said on X.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Tikhanovsky’s release was “fantastically good news.”

“At the same time, we must not forget the many other prisoners in Belarus. Lukashenko must finally release them,” he said on X.


Pakistan recommends Trump for Nobel Peace Prize

Updated 21 June 2025
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Pakistan recommends Trump for Nobel Peace Prize

  • Some analysts in Pakistan said the move might persuade Trump to think again about potentially joining Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani government has decided to formally recommend US President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for his “decisive diplomatic intervention” during last month’s India-Pakistan military standoff, it said on Saturday.

The statement came after Trump took credit for a peace deal negotiated in Washington between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda and complained he had been overlooked by the Norwegian Nobel Committee for his mediating role in conflicts between India and Pakistan, as well as Serbia and Kosovo.

Trump campaigned for office as a “peacemaker” who would use his negotiating skills to quickly end wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Both conflicts are still raging five months into his presidency.

Indian officials have denied that Trump played any part in their country’s ceasefire with Pakistan.

In a post on X, the Pakistani government said President Trump demonstrated “great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation last month.”

It continued: “This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker and his commitment to conflict resolution through dialogue.”

The military standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbors was triggered by a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan. Islamabad denied complicity.

The four-day standoff raised fears of wider conflict between the South Asian rivals who have fought multiple wars, including two over the disputed region of Kashmir. Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute between the neighbors.

On Friday, the US president predicted that Washington would be able to negotiate trade deals with both India and Pakistan.

“We did a very great job with India and Pakistan, and we had India in, and it looks like we’re going to be making a trade deal with India,” he told reporters in New Jersey. “And we had Pakistan in, and it looks like we’re going to be making a trade deal with Pakistan. And it’s a beautiful thing to watch.”

The Pakistani government said it acknowledged and admired Trump’s offers to help resolve the longstanding Kashmir dispute that lies at the “heart of regional instability.”

“Durable peace in South Asia will remain elusive until the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolutions concerning Jammu and Kashmir,” it said.

The government added this it hopes Trump’s “pragmatic diplomacy and effective peace-building” will help resolve various ongoing crises in the Middle East.

“Pakistan remains hopeful that his earnest efforts will continue to contribute toward regional and global stability, particularly in the context of ongoing crises in the Middle East, including the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza and the deteriorating escalation involving Iran,” it said.

 


Eight dead in Brazil hot air balloon accident

Updated 21 June 2025
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Eight dead in Brazil hot air balloon accident

  • “Eight fatalities and 13 survivors,” governor Jorginho Mello said
  • An investigation was launched

SAO PAULO: At least eight people were killed Saturday when a hot air balloon with 21 passengers caught fire in southern Brazil, said the governor of Santa Catarina state, where the incident occurred.

“Eight fatalities and 13 survivors,” governor Jorginho Mello said on X.

Videos taken by bystanders and carried on Brazilian television showed the moment when the balloon erupted in flames above the coastal town of Praia Grande. The weather conditions were clear.


The basket carrying the passengers plummeted dozens of meters to the ground in flames.

An investigation was launched to determine the cause of the accident.

Praia Grande, on the Atlantic coast, is a popular destination for hot-air ballooning in Brazil.

That was the second fatal balloon accident in the country in just a few days. Less than a week ago, a woman died during a ride in southeastern Sao Paulo state.


Suicide blast kills 20 anti-militant fighters in Nigeria

Updated 21 June 2025
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Suicide blast kills 20 anti-militant fighters in Nigeria

  • Police have confirmed 10 people were killed and said the overall toll could be higher
  • They have also overrun military bases, killing soldiers and carting away weapons

KONDUGA, Nigeria: A suicide attack in Nigeria’s Borno state by a woman allegedly acting for Boko Haram insurgents has killed at least 20 anti-militant fighters, militia members told AFP on Saturday.

Police have confirmed 10 people were killed and said the overall toll could be higher.

Boko Haram and its rival, the Daesh West Africa Province (Daesh-WAP), have in recent months intensified attacks on villages in Borno and neighboring states.

They have also overrun military bases, killing soldiers and carting away weapons.

Late on Friday, a woman allegedly detonated explosives strapped to her body at a haunt for vigilantes and local hunters assisting the Nigerian military in fighting “militants” in the town of Konduga, the militia told AFP.

“We lost 20 people in the suicide attack which happened yesterday around 9:15 p.m. (2015 GMT) while our members were hanging out near the fish market,” said Tijjani Ahmed, the head of an anti-militant militia in Konduga district.

Konduga is about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Maiduguri, the capital of the northeastern state of Borno.

Surrounding villages have been repeatedly targeted by suicide bombers said to be acting for Boko Haram, a group of armed Islamic militants that has been active in the area for at least 16 years.

Konduga town itself had seen a lull in such attacks in the past year.

“Eighteen people died on the spot, while 18 others were injured. Two more died in hospital, raising the death toll to 20,” Ahmed said.

Sixteen were wounded, with 10 of them nursing severe injuries in two hospitals in Maiduguri, he said.

The dead were buried in a mass funeral on Saturday, an AFP reporter saw.

Corpses wrapped in white cloths — some covered in bamboo mats — were laid out in rows on the ground on wooden biers ahead of the burial.

The alleged bomber was dressed as a local heading to the crowded nearby fish market.

She detonated her explosives as soon as she reached the shed used by the militia fighters as a hangout, said militia member Ibrahim Liman.

He gave the same toll as Ahmed.

Borno state police spokesman Nahum Daso told AFP that 10 bodies had been recovered from the “suicide attack.”

He said the toll could be higher as “details are sketchy.”

Konduga’s fish market, which is usually busy at night, has been the target of a series of suicide attacks in the past.

“I was in the market to buy fish for dinner when I heard a loud bang some meters behind me,” Konduga resident Ahmed Mallum said.

“I was flung to the ground and I couldn’t stand. I just lay down,” Mallum said.

The conflict between the authorities and Boko Haram has been ongoing for 16 years.

In that time, more than 40,000 people have died and around two million have been displaced from their homes in the northeast, according to the United Nations.

The violence has spread to neighboring Niger, Chad and Cameroon, prompting a regional military coalition to fight armed militant Islamic groups.