South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

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People flee the violence in Sudan using trucks, buses, cars and horse-drawn carts. The exodus threatens to aggravate the already dire situation of refugee camps in neighboring South Sudan. (AFP)
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Updated 01 May 2023
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South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

  • Government and military officials wary of economic and security costs of prolonged crisis to the north
  • Analysts say former rebel groups could be dragged into the conflict, undermining the nation’s fragile peace

JUBA, South Sudan: The government of South Sudan has expressed deep concern over the fighting in neighboring Sudan, which it fears could spill across the border and threaten its fragile peace process.

The clashes between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group in Khartoum hold the potential to ignite a civil war, into which neighboring South Sudan could get sucked.




Camps for internally displaced people in South Sudan, such as this one in the northern city of Bentiu, risk being swamped further by people fleeing the war in neighboring Sudan. (AFP)

There have been multiple truce efforts since fighting broke out on April 15 between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by his deputy turned rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

As close neighbors, with a long history of conflict and interdependence, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan is likely to spill over into South Sudan, with potentially dire consequences.

One major concern for South Sudanese officials is the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict to the north.

Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.

INNUMBERS

2011 South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9.

11 million Estimated South Sudanese citizens in need of humanitarian assistanc2e.

$1,600 Real gross domestic product per capita (2017).

On Friday, the price of South Sudan’s oil exports fell from $100 per barrel to $70. Michael Makuei, the country’s information minister, accused oil companies of exploiting the crisis to drive down prices. Experts say the situation in Sudan could have long-term implications for South Sudan’s oil industry.

“The situation is alarming, as any spillover from Sudan will be a very big issue for us here and this is why President Salva Kiir has been calling for a ceasefire so that normalcy returns to Sudan,” Deng Dau Deng Malek, acting minister of foreign affairs, told Arab News.

 

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“South Sudan is very concerned about the situation in Sudan, especially given our shared border and historical ties. Any escalation of conflict in Sudan could have serious consequences for our country.”

Maj. Gen. Charles Machieng Kuol, a senior military officer in South Sudan, also weighed in on the potential harm that a prolonged conflict might cause, emphasizing the need for stability in the region.

“We have forces which have been deployed along the borders before,” he told Arab News. “Our country is preparing now to protect the borderlines, as we don’t want this war to escalate to our country.”

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Sudan has lived through multiple civil wars since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956.

Its first north-south civil war broke out several months before independence on Jan. 1, 1956 and lasted until 1972. It pitted successive governments in the Muslim-dominated north against separatist rebels in the predominantly Christian south.

The 17-year conflict ended with a treaty under which the south was granted autonomy. However, the agreement collapsed in 1983 after 11 years of relative peace when President Jaafar Nimeiri decided to revoke the south’s autonomous status.

Sudan’s second civil war erupted in 1983 following an uprising by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army led by John Garang. In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir took power in a coup and cracked down on the southern rebellion.




Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's former ruler, waves a walking stick during a visit in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur province on September 21, 2017. He was accompanied by paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L). (AFP File)

he war ended on Jan. 9, 2005, when Garang signed a peace accord with Al-Bashir’s government. The cornerstone of the accord was a protocol granting it six years of self-rule ahead of a 2011 referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede.

South Sudan proclaimed independence on July 9, 2011, splitting Africa’s biggest country in two. As South Sudan separated, conflict resumed in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile in the rump state of Sudan in areas held by former guerrillas, now called the SPLM-North.

The presence of these former South Sudanese rebels close to the shared border complicates the current crisis, as they could easily be dragged into the conflict.

Manasseh Zindo, an independent analyst from South Sudan and a former delegate to the South Sudan peace process, says the involvement of these rebel leaders could have catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan.

 

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“Malik Agar is the leader of the SPLM-North. He is from the Blue Nile State near the Nuba Mountains in Sudan. He was part of South Sudan during the liberation struggle,” Zindo told Arab News.

“After the secession of South Sudan, the boundary delineation put him in Sudan. He is now part of the sovereign government in Khartoum. If he takes sides in the current conflict in Sudan, it could spill into South Sudan because of his links with South Sudan.”

Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual and Gen. Johnson Olony, two South Sudanese military officials who have shifted allegiance between different factions, are also based close to the Sudanese border.

Both men are leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang, a faction that broke away from Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO.




Rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), a South Sudanese anti-government force, patrol in their base in Panyume, on the South Sudanese side of the border with Uganda. (AFP File)

“If Gen. Simon or Gen. Johnson can be dragged into the Sudanese conflict, it can spill into South Sudan with catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan,” said Zindo.

The South Sudanese government is now on high alert and has urged citizens living close to the border to be vigilant and report any suspicious activities. It has also called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Sudan, adding that it is willing to play the role of mediator if both parties agree.

“The president (Salva Kiir) has been calling for a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities for humanitarian assistance to reach the needy,” said Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs.

“He talked directly to President Al-Burhan and Deputy President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a number of times to appeal to them so that they observe the cessation of hostilities and return to the negotiation table.”




In this picture taken on August 17, 2019, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit is seated next to  
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (front left) during a ceremony to sign an agreement paving the way for a transition to civilian rule. Kiir has appealed to Al-Burhan and rival general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to stop fighting and resolve their problems peacefully. (AFP)

The UN and other international bodies have also expressed concern about the situation in Sudan and its potential impact on South Sudan. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says the conflict in Sudan has already forced thousands of people to flee into South Sudan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

South Sudan is still recovering from a six-year civil war that ended in 2018, which left more than 380,000 people dead and displaced millions. The country is now trying to implement a peace agreement that was signed in September 2018, but progress has been slow, with sporadic clashes reported in different parts of the country.

As the situation deteriorates, Sudanese refugees are flooding across the border into South Sudan. International aid agencies are calling for urgent action to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to UNHCR, there are currently more than 800,000 South Sudanese refugees in Sudan, a quarter of whom are in Khartoum and directly impacted by the fighting.

Egypt, Sudan’s northern neighbor, said on Thursday that at least 14,000 Sudanese refugees had crossed its border since the fighting erupted, as well as 2,000 people from 50 other countries.

At least 20,000 people have escaped into Chad, 4,000 into South Sudan, 3,500 into Ethiopia and 3,000 into the Central African Republic, according to the UN, which warns that if the fighting continues as many as 270,000 people could flee.

Gavin Kelleher, a humanitarian analyst for the Norwegian Refugee Council in South Sudan, said that the country is ill-prepared to absorb the expected influx from the north.

 

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“The number of new arrivals is still unclear, but they are very likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it’s really important that we put the wheels in motion now for an effective humanitarian response,” Kelleher told Arab News.

“About 75 percent of South Sudan’s population are assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance already, and the majority of the country has emergency or critical levels of food insecurity.

“Further shocks such as waves of new arrivals from Sudan are stretching the limited amount of resources available to new levels.”

 


US families accuse Palestinian-American billionaire of facilitating Hamas attacks

Updated 5 sec ago
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US families accuse Palestinian-American billionaire of facilitating Hamas attacks

  • A March 10 article in the Jerusalem Post cited unnamed diplomatic sources as saying that Masri had served as a close adviser to Adam Boehler, US President Donald Trump’s envoy seeking release of hostages held in Gaza
  • In a Reuters interview in October 2020, when he was 59, Masri spoke in favor of Gulf Arab ties with Israel, condemned by Palestinian leaders, saying they could be an opportunity to apply fresh pressure to halt Jewish settlement in occupied land

WASHINGTON: American families of victims of the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel filed a lawsuit on Monday against a prominent Palestinian-American businessman, Bashar Masri, charging that he provided assistance in constructing infrastructure that allowed Hamas militants to carry out their cross-border rampage. The lawsuit, filed in the US District Court for Washington, D.C., is thought to be the first case of a US citizen being accused of providing major support for the attacks that triggered a wider Middle East conflict and upended the region.
Masri’s office called the lawsuit “baseless.”
According to a statement announcing the lawsuit, properties Masri owned, developed and controlled, including two luxury hotels and the leading industrial zone in Gaza – the Gaza Industrial Estate — “concealed tunnels underneath them, and had tunnel entrances accessible from within the properties, which Hamas used in terrorist operations before, on and after October 7th.”
“Defendants facilitated the construction and concealment of those tunnels and even built above-ground solar panel installations that they then used to supply Hamas with electricity to the tunnels,” it said. The October 7 attacks killed some 1,200 Israelis, including more than 40 Americans, and prompted Israeli retaliation against Gaza that has since killed more than 50,000 Palestinians.
The lawsuit, which targets Masri and his companies, was filed on behalf of nearly 200 American plaintiffs, including survivors and relatives of victims.
“Our goal is to expose those who have aided and abetted Hamas and to try and bring accountability to individuals and companies that have presented a legitimate and moderate image to the Western world but have actively and knowingly helped Hamas,” Lee Wolosky of the Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP law firm, lead attorney representing the plaintiffs, said in the statement.
It said GIE was originally established with the help of US taxpayer funding via the US Agency for International Development to promote economic growth in the region.
It said of that “as a result of defendants’ deception,” Hamas’ tunnel network was built with the help of infrastructure and energy projects financed by international institutions, including the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation.
Masri’s office called the allegations against him and his businesses false and said he would seek their dismissal in court. It said Masri had been involved in development and humanitarian work for the past decades and “unequivocally opposes violence of any kind.”
“Neither he nor those entities have ever engaged in unlawful activity or provided support for violence and militancy,” it said in a statement.
Doing any big projects in Gaza prior to the war would have required tacit approval by, and some level of cooperation with, the Hamas authorities. The group built its extensive tunnel network across practically the entire territory, including under private homes and businesses.
A March 10 article in the Jerusalem Post cited unnamed diplomatic sources as saying that Masri had served as a close adviser to Adam Boehler, US President Donald Trump’s envoy seeking release of hostages held in Gaza, and had flown on Boehler’s private jet as he shuttled across the region.
It called Masri “a seasoned entrepreneur” who “shares a business-minded approach with Trump, making him a natural fit in the administration’s economic vision for the region.”
The State Department and White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment when asked about the newspaper report.
In a Reuters interview in October 2020, when he was 59, Masri spoke in favor of Gulf Arab ties with Israel, condemned by Palestinian leaders, saying they could be an opportunity to apply fresh pressure to halt Jewish settlement in occupied land.
When speaking to Reuters in 2020, Masri said Palestinians must not give up hope. “Our enemies want us to give up hope. If we give up hope, they have exactly what they want, and there will be no Palestine, and no Palestinian people,” he said.

 


Trump signs executive orders to boost coal, a reliable but polluting energy source

Updated 18 min 3 sec ago
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Trump signs executive orders to boost coal, a reliable but polluting energy source

  • “Pound for pound, coal is the single most reliable, durable, secure and powerful form of energy,” Trump says

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump on Tuesday signed a series of executive orders aimed at boosting the struggling coal industry, a reliable but polluting energy source that’s long been in decline.
Under the four orders, Trump uses his emergency authority to allow some older coal-fired power plants set for retirement to keep producing electricity to meet rising US power demand amid growth in data centers, artificial intelligence and electric cars.
Trump also directed federal agencies to identify coal resources on federal lands, lift barriers to coal mining and prioritize coal leasing on US lands.
Trump, a Republican, has long promised to boost what he calls “beautiful” coal to fire power plants and for other uses, but the industry has been in decline for decades.
“I call it beautiful, clean coal. I told my people, never use the word coal unless you put beautiful, clean before it,” Trump said at the White House signing ceremony where he was flanked by coal miners in hard hats. Several wore patches on their work jackets that said “coal.”
“Pound for pound, coal is the single most reliable, durable, secure and powerful form of energy,” Trump said. “It’s cheap, incredibly efficient, high density, and it’s almost indestructible.”
Trump’s orders also direct Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to “acknowledge the end” of an Obama-era moratorium that paused coal leasing on federal lands and require federal agencies to rescind policies transitioning the nation away from coal production. And they seek to promote coal and coal technology exports, and accelerate development of coal technologies.
Trump has long championed coal
Trump, who has pushed for US “energy dominance” in the global market, has long suggested that coal can help meet surging electricity demand from manufacturing and the massive data centers needed for artificial intelligence.
“We’re ending Joe Biden’s war on beautiful, clean coal once and for all,” he said Tuesday. “All those plants that have been closed are going to be opened, if they’re modern enough, (or) they’ll be ripped down and brand new ones will be built. And we’re going to put the miners back to work.”
In 2018, during his first term, Trump directed then-Energy Secretary Rick Perry to take “immediate steps” to bolster struggling coal-fired and nuclear power plants, calling it a matter of national and economic security.
At that time, Trump also considered but didn’t approve a plan to order grid operators to buy electricity from coal and nuclear plants to keep them open. Energy industry groups — including oil, natural gas, solar and wind power — condemned the proposal, saying it would raise energy prices and distort markets.
The national decline of coal
Energy experts say any bump for coal under Trump is likely to be temporary because natural gas is cheaper, and there’s a durable market for renewable energy such as wind and solar power no matter who holds the White House.
Trump’s administration has targeted regulations under the Biden administration that could hasten closures of heavily polluting coal power plants and the mines that supply them.
Coal once provided more than half of US electricity production, but its share dropped to about 16 percent in 2023, down from about 45 percent as recently as 2010. Natural gas provides about 43 percent of US electricity, with the remainder from nuclear energy and renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower.
The front line in what Republicans call the “war on coal” is in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana, a sparsely populated section of the Great Plains with the nation’s largest coal mines. It’s also home to a massive power plant in Colstrip, Montana, that emits more toxic air pollutants such as lead and arsenic than any other US facility of its kind, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
EPA rules finalized last year could force the Colstrip Generating Station to shut down or spend an estimated $400 million to clean up its emissions within the next several years. Another Biden-era proposal, from the Interior Department, would end new leasing of taxpayer-owned coal reserves in the Powder River Basin.
Changes and promises under Trump
Trump vowed to reverse those actions and has named Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright to lead a new National Energy Dominance Council. The panel is tasked with driving up already record-setting domestic oil and gas production, as well as coal and other traditional energy sources.
The council has been granted sweeping authority over federal agencies involved in energy permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation. It has a mandate to cut bureaucratic red tape, enhance private sector investments and focus on innovation instead of “unnecessary regulation,” Trump said.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, meanwhile, has announced a series of actions to roll back environmental regulations, including rules on pollution from coal-fired power plants.
In all, Zeldin said he’s moving to roll back 31 environmental rules, including a scientific finding that has long been the central basis for US action against climate change.
Coal industry applauds, but environmental groups warn of problems
Industry groups praised Trump’s focus on coal.
“Despite countless warnings from the nation’s grid operators and energy regulators that we are facing an electricity supply crisis, the last administration’s energy policies were built on hostility to fossil fuels, directly targeting coal,” said Rich Nolan, president and CEO of the National Mining Association.
Trump’s executive actions “clearly prioritize how to responsibly keep the lights on, recognize the enormous strategic value of American-mined coal and embrace the economic opportunity that comes from American energy abundance,” Nolan said.
But environmental groups said Trump’s actions were more of the same tactics he tried during his first term in an unsuccessful bid to revive coal.
“What’s next, a mandate that Americans must commute by horse and buggy?” asked Kit Kennedy, managing director for power at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
“Coal plants are old and dirty, uncompetitive and unreliable,” Kennedy said, accusing Trump and his administration of remaining “stuck in the past, trying to make utility customers pay more for yesterday’s energy.”
Instead, she said, the US should do all it can to build the power grid of the future, including tax credits and other support for renewable energy such as wind and solar power.


EU Commission to discuss trade, US tariff strategy with industries

Updated 43 min 27 sec ago
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EU Commission to discuss trade, US tariff strategy with industries

BRUSSELS: The European Commission has invited the sectors most impacted by US tariffs to an in-person meeting on Thursday, an invitation letter seen by Reuters showed, as the commission weighs new trade partnerships and further countermeasures.
The meeting led by the Commission industry chief Stephane Sejourne will include participants from the steel and autos industries. The meeting follows calls held by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen with executives in the metals, pharmaceutical and auto industries.
The meeting is meant to find out what impact EU companies are already seeing in the “short and medium term” and the best responses in terms of “sector-specific policies as well as counter-tariffs and non-tariff counter measures,” the invitation letter said.
On top of reciprocal tariffs, Washington has introduced sector-specific duties on steel, aluminum and vehicles.
The Commission is concerned about the forthcoming measures on “pharmaceuticals, copper, semiconductors, lumber, energy products, and certain minerals” and knock-on effects across supply chains. The Commission pointed to possible extra tariffs that may hit some EU companies that still use Venezuelan oil “directly or indirectly.”
As the Commission looks to diversify its trade away from the US, it is seeking input from industry on the best tools to use whether they be free trade or partnerships.
“The two-hour meeting will be an opportunity to share views on the impact of the tariffs on various industrial sectors as well as the measures the EU could take to mitigate their effect,” the letter said.


US scholar in Thailand jailed pending trial on charges of insulting the monarchy

Updated 08 April 2025
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US scholar in Thailand jailed pending trial on charges of insulting the monarchy

  • Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University in northern Thailand, has specialized in studying the power and influence of the military
  • Insulting the monarchy in Thailand is an offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison

BANGKOK: A US political science scholar accused by the Thai military of insulting the Southeast Asian nation’s monarchy — an offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison — was jailed on Tuesday pending trial.
Paul Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan University in the northern province of Phitsanulok, was first summoned by police last week to hear the charges against him, including violating the Computer Crime Act, which covers online activity.
Chambers, a 58-year-old Oklahoma native with a doctorate in political science from Northern Illinois University, has studied the power and influence of the Thai military, which plays a major role in politics. It has staged 13 coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, most recently 11 years ago.
Chambers reported to the police on Tuesday to formally acknowledge the charges and was then taken to a provincial court for a pretrial detention hearing, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, a legal advocacy group.
The court denied Chambers release on bail, allegedly because of “the severity of potential punishment,” his status as a foreigner and the police’s objection to granting it, the lawyers group said.
The group said another request to allow bail would be filed to an appeals court on Wednesday. No trial date has been set.
The officer who answered the phone at the police station handling the case said he could not comment, and referred the matter to his chief, who did not answer a call to his phone.
It is not unusual for Thai courts to deny bail in cases of insulting the monarchy, popularly known as “112” after its article number in the criminal code.
The US-based academic freedom project Scholars at Risk said in a statement that Chambers in late 2024 made comments in a webinar about a restructuring of the military that could have been the cause of the complaint made against him by the 3rd Army Area, covering Thailand’s northern region.
However, Chambers’ wife, Napisa Waitoolkiat, dean of the faculty of social sciences at Naresuan University, said the evidence presented by the authorities was not the words of her husband but came from the website operated by ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, a think tank in Singapore that broadcast the webinar.
Thai Lawyers for Human Right said the charges stemmed from the text of the invitation to the October 2024 webinar, titled “Thailand’s 2024 Military and Police Reshuffles: What Do They Mean?” and that the charge sheet contained the Thai translation of the invitation’s description of the event.
Napisa also said her husband was not summoned for questioning by police before he was presented with the warrant for his arrest, as is typical in such cases.
“It just feels like they wanted to deter Paul from doing his work and research, which often touches on topics like the economics of the Thai army,” she told The Associated Press over the phone.
Thai law envisages 3-15 years imprisonment for anyone who defames, insults or threatens the king, the queen, the heir apparent or the regent. Critics say it is among the harshest such laws anywhere and has also been used to punish critics of the government and the military.
The monarchy has long been considered a pillar of Thai society and criticizing it used to be strictly taboo. Conservative Thais, especially in the military and courts, still consider it untouchable.
However, public debate on the topic has in the past decade grown louder, particularly among young people, and student-led pro-democracy protests starting in 2020, began openly criticizing the institution. That led to vigorous prosecutions under the previously little-used law.
Thai Lawyers for Human Rights has said that since early 2020, more than 270 people — many of them student activists — have been charged with violating the law.


US, Russia to meet Thursday in Istanbul on restoring embassy operations

Updated 08 April 2025
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US, Russia to meet Thursday in Istanbul on restoring embassy operations

  • State Department says the two sides will hold talks on Thursday in Istanbul

WASHINGTON: The United States and Russia will hold talks on Thursday in Istanbul on restoring some of their embassy operations that have been drastically scaled back following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the US State Department said.
The talks, the second of their kind, come after President Donald Trump reached out to Russia following the start of his second term and offered better ties if it winds down fighting in Ukraine.
The two sides will “try to make progress on further stabilizing the operations of our bilateral missions,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters on Tuesday.
“There are no political or security issues on the agenda, and Ukraine is not — absolutely not — on the agenda,” she said.
“These talks are solely focused on our embassy operations, not on normalizing a bilateral relationship.”
The talks are going ahead despite Russia rejecting a Ukraine-backed US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday lamented the lack of a US response.
Trump a day later told reporters that he was not happy that Russia was “bombing like crazy right now.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously said that it is important for both the United States and Russia to resume higher staffing at their respective embassies to improve contacts, regardless of the situation in Ukraine.