Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?

Analysis Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?
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Updated 08 October 2024
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Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?

Can Syria cope with influx of people displaced by Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?
  • Israel’s air and ground offensive has forced more than 100,000 people to flee across the border into war-torn Syria
  • Where once Syrian refugees were fleeing to Lebanon, it is now Syria’s turn to play host to those escaping war

LONDON: In just a week, an intensifying Israeli air and ground offensive in Lebanon has forced more than 100,000 people to flee across the border into Syria, resulting in a stark reversal of fortunes for the two beleaguered neighbors.

Where once Syrian refugees were spilling over the border, escaping violence and hardship for the relative safety of Lebanon, it is now Syria’s turn to play host to a desperate population fleeing war and economic collapse.

Both the Syrian government and civil society have been leading relief efforts. But, after 13 years of civil war, Syria is poorly equipped to adequately support the thousands displaced from Lebanon.

While Syria was an ally of Hezbollah during its 2006 war with Israel, taking in some 250,000 refugees, according to UN figures, more than a decade of fighting and economic calamity has left the country deeply impoverished.




Lebanese customs officers help a woman walk 31 July 2006 at the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria. (AFP/File)

Authorities in Syria estimate that since Sept. 23, more than 200,000 people have arrived at border crossings in Homs, the Damascus countryside, and the coastal governorate Tartous.

The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, reports that around 60 percent of those crossing the border are actually Syrians — among the approximately 1.5 million who had fled to Lebanon after the Syrian civil war began in 2011.

Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, UNHCR’s representative in Syria, said those arriving — half of them minors — are “exhausted, scared and in need, arriving in a country that has been suffering from its own crisis and violence for more than 13 years, as well as from economic collapse.”

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva on Sept. 27, Llosa related the story of one woman who had arrived at the border with the bodies of her two children so she could bury them in their Syrian homeland. She told aid officials that both had been killed in an Israeli airstrike.

Fearful they may face arrest, conscription, or fall victim to the ongoing violence if they returned to their home country, many Syrians had long preferred to remain in Lebanon despite the country’s economic problems and mounting hostility against their community.




A woman holds her cat in front of a destroyed building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut. (AP)

However, for those now crossing the border, the rapid escalation between Israel and Hezbollah appears to have eclipsed even these fears.

While communities in Syria welcomed their Lebanese neighbors with open arms back in 2006, treating them as guests rather than as refugees, the picture is very different today. With some 90 percent of the population barely making ends meet, few Syrians have anything to spare.

In 2018, the World Bank reclassified Syria as a low-income country. Its gross domestic product contracted by more than 50 percent between 2010 and 2020 owing to the destruction of infrastructure, the loss of workers and professionals, and the collapse of economic networks.

Nezar Mihoub, head of the Syrian Public Relations Association, said that during the 2006 war, his Damascus-based organization alone “received some 15,000 displaced people from Lebanon.”

He told Arab News: “We had around 50 volunteers who would travel to the Syrian-Lebanese border to receive and transport Lebanese families from the border to the association’s headquarters.

“During that time, thousands of Syrian families from all sects and backgrounds generously opened their homes to Lebanese people and donated goods in abundance. At one point, Syrians even provided free dental and medical care.”

In one instance, a couple who were about to get married and who had a newly furnished home even postponed their wedding to accommodate a displaced Lebanese family, said Mihoub.

“Emotions ran high in 2006, and Syrians genuinely committed to their humanitarian efforts. But today, they are weary from war and the harsh living conditions.

INNUMBERS

• 1,000 People killed in Lebanon in Israeli strikes over the past two weeks.

• 1m+ People uprooted in Lebanon by ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict.

“Today, after more than a decade of war, both the Syrian people and government are depleted. The current economic situation makes it impossible for Syrian families to house and feed displaced Lebanese families as they did in 2006.”

He added: “With over 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line and many families relying on remittances from relatives abroad. The country lacks the resources and financial capacity it had in 2006.”

Support from UNHCR is expected to help ease the burden on the Syrian government and civil society groups, who are determined to stand in solidarity with those who have lost their homes in Lebanon.




A protester holds a sign during a demonstration in support of Lebanese people as intense Israeli attacks across Lebanon. (AFP)

Amal, a former Syria-based humanitarian worker whose name has been changed to protect her identity, told Arab News that “with adequate funding for humanitarian organizations and the government, Syria has the capacity to support those displaced from Lebanon.”

Filippo Grandi, the UN high commissioner for refugees, posted on X that the UN is appealing for $83 million to “urgently meet the needs” of Lebanon’s displaced people, “including those who have crossed the Syrian border.”

By taking in Lebanese refugees and Syrian returnees, Amal believes Syria itself can benefit from the additional humanitarian relief.

“When the Syrian government assists Lebanon’s displaced people, humanitarian funding will be redirected to support relief efforts in Syria,” she said.

“The situation in the region is undoubtedly tragic, but the scale of the crisis will prompt donors to redirect the flow of funds into Syria, as this is an urgent response. And since funding must correspond to the number of people in need, it should increase accordingly as more individuals enter Syria.”

Local authorities, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, UNHCR, and civil society groups are present at four official border crossings on the Syrian side of the border, including Masnaa in Jdeidat Yabous, west of Damascus, and Arida in Tartous.

Services offered to new arrivals include medical aid, food, water, and blankets, transport to shelter and accommodation, legal advice, and psychological support.

“For the time being, these needs are largely being addressed thanks to relief supplies that we and other partners had in stock, but these will need to be replenished soon,” said UNHCR’s Llosa.




Israeli soldiers fire a tank round from a military position in Kibbutz Snir, along the border between Israel and Syria. (AFP/File)

From Sept. 24 to 29, the Syrian Arab Red Crescent said its mobile clinics provided medical services to 5,074 people who were sick or injured. However, its staff say they have been overwhelmed by the scale of demand.

Local initiatives, such as the Damascus-based charity Mart Group, have stepped in to support relief efforts by distributing bottled water, snacks, and blankets. It has also been giving children wristbands with space to write their parents’ phone numbers in case they get lost.

Marwan Alrez, Mart’s general manager, whose team is stationed at the Masnaa crossing, described chaotic scenes at the border.

“When my team first arrived at the Masnaa border crossing, the first things we noticed were overcrowding, chaos and poor organization, which signaled the gravity of the situation in Lebanon,” he told Arab News.

“All of a sudden, the crossing, which previously handled around 300 travelers per day, is now receiving about 2,000 daily.”

Fortunately, most of the new arrivals have “connections or interests in Syria,” said Alrez. Indeed, while the majority are Syrian returnees, “many of the Lebanese families from South Lebanon have relatives and friends in Syria” with whom they can stay.




Fearful they may face arrest, conscription, or fall victim to the ongoing violence if they returned to their home country, many Syrians had long preferred to remain in Lebanon. (AP)

There have, however, been claims of store holders and border officials ramping up prices and demanding fees in order to profit from the flow of refugees and returnees arriving in Syria from Lebanon.

According to some reports, Syrian returnees had until the end of September been required to pay $100 at the border, while Lebanese arrivals were not asked to present any funds.

“The Syrian refugee who sought shelter in Lebanon only to face further instability now has to pay a fee for the ‘privilege’ of returning to a country that offers no home — only the high probability of arrest and torture,” Syrian activist Douna Haj Ahmad told Arab News.

“The very Syrians who have endured years of war, bombings, and oppression are cast aside, their suffering compounded by this bitter betrayal, while others are welcomed with open arms.”

Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, clarified that the Syrian regime was not taking $100 from Syrians upon arrival but was in fact exchanging it for the local currency, “giving the equivalent in Syrian pounds.”

However, he told Arab News the $100 paid by Syrians at the border was “exchanged at a rate that is currently lower than the black-market rate, which is considered the fair exchange rate as it’s determined by the powers of supply and demand.”

Whatever the nature of this exchange of funds, Zaher Sahloul, president of the US-based nongovernmental organization MedGlobal, said many Syrian refugees had been left “trapped at the border, unable to pay the $100 exchange fee required to enter Syria.”

In a statement on Sept. 30, he called for “immediate action” to “lift these barriers,” adding that “there are also widespread reports of Syrian refugees in Lebanon being denied access to shelter centers, with many now sleeping on roadsides, exposed to the elements.”

On Sep. 29, the Syrian government announced a one-week suspension of the requirement for Syrian citizens to exchange $100 at border crossings when entering the country.

Officials said the suspension came “in response to the emergency circumstances resulting from the Israeli aggression on Lebanese territories and the subsequent influx of arrivals at the border crossings.”

Shaar of the Newlines Institute believes the alleged preferential treatment of Lebanese arrivals compared to Syrian citizens is partly caused by feelings of “guilt,” saying: “The Syrian regime knows that it should have done much more at least to be aligned with its own rhetoric as part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ to support ‘Palestinian and Lebanese resistance.’”

The Axis of Resistance is a loose network of Iranian allies and proxies throughout the region opposed to Israel and its Western backers. Although Syria’s Bashar Assad regime is allied with the axis, it has been reluctant to provide material support to Hezbollah or Hamas.

“The Syrian regime is trying to distance itself as much as possible,” said Shaar. “It doesn’t want any military confrontation with Israel, and this has been the case for nearly a year now following the Oct. 7 (Hamas) attacks.”




A group of Syrian workers laugh as they head to the immigration office to flee Lebanon and cross to Syria at Jedeidet Yabus. (AFP/File)

Indeed, with armed opposition groups in control of Syria’s northwest, a Kurdish-led administration backed by 900 US troops in control of the northeast, and an ongoing Daesh insurgency in its eastern and central regions, the Assad regime has barely survived its grinding civil war, owing its success to its now preoccupied Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah allies.

Although regime-held areas have come under repeated Israeli fire in recent years, most notably the April 1 attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, these strikes have tended to be aimed at Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which uses Syria as a land corridor to deliver weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It seems likely the Syrian regime will continue to actively avoid direct involvement in the present conflict. But if events escalate any further, engulfing the wider region, it may have little choice in the matter.

 


Sudan’s two years of war have ‘shattered’ children’s lives: UNICEF

Sudan’s two years of war have ‘shattered’ children’s lives: UNICEF
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Sudan’s two years of war have ‘shattered’ children’s lives: UNICEF

Sudan’s two years of war have ‘shattered’ children’s lives: UNICEF
  • Famine has additionally been declared in at least five locations, including the Zamzam displacement camp in Darfur, where the RSF recently wrested control

UNITED NATIONS, United States: The number of major violations against children in Sudan, from killings to abductions, has increased by 1,000 percent following two years of civil war, UNICEF said Monday, calling for increased global awareness.
The United Nations children’s agency said that such incidents — which also include maiming and attacks on schools and hospitals — had previously been confined to a few regions.
But the ongoing nature of the conflict between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Sudan’s army had resulted in their spread to further areas.
“Two years of violence and displacement have shattered the lives of millions of children across Sudan,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said in a statement.
“The number of grave violations against children has surged by 1,000 percent in two years,” the statement said.
For example, the number of children killed or maimed has increased drastically from 150 verified cases in 2022 to an estimated 2,776 across 2023 and 2024, according to figures provided to AFP by UNICEF, which are likely underestimates.
Attacks on schools and hospitals have also gone up from 33 verified cases in 2022 to around 181 over the two prior years.
Furthermore, the number of children in need of humanitarian assistance has doubled in two years, from 7.8 million at the beginning of 2023 to more than 15 million today, UNICEF said.
“Sudan is the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world today, but it is not getting the world’s attention,” Russell said, adding “we cannot abandon the children of Sudan.”
“We have the expertise and the resolve to scale up our support, but we need access and sustained funding,” she said.
The war between army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and his former deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, first erupted in April 2023.
Since then, the conflict has left tens of thousands dead and displaced 13 million people, according to the UN.
Famine has additionally been declared in at least five locations, including the Zamzam displacement camp in Darfur, where the RSF recently wrested control.
With the arrival of the rainy season and the risk of flooding, the situation in Sudan could worsen further. According to UNICEF, this year’s rainy season could result in 462,000 children suffering severe acute malnutrition.


UN chief says stop flow of weapons to Sudan

UN chief says stop flow of weapons to Sudan
Updated 1 min 13 sec ago
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UN chief says stop flow of weapons to Sudan

UN chief says stop flow of weapons to Sudan
  • The UN experts also said fighters had been recruited in neighboring countries like Chad, Libya and the Central African Republic and sent to South Sudan

UNITED NATIONS, United States: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Monday he is worried that weapons and fighters keep flowing into Sudan, perpetuating a civil war about to enter its third year.
The war, which erupted on April 15, 2023, has left tens of thousands dead, pushed parts of Sudan into famine and fractured the country into warlord-run territories.
“The external support and flow of weapons must end,” Guterres said without naming any specific country in a statement issued a day before the third anniversary of the start of the war between Sudan’s army and its paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
“Those with greatest influence on the parties must use it to better the lives of people in Sudan — not to perpetuate this disaster,” said Guterres.
But in their last report early this year the experts said they could not confirm actual transfers of military material along this route from Chad to Darfur.
They said, however, that weapons had come in from Libya but could not identify who sent them.
The UN experts also said fighters had been recruited in neighboring countries like Chad, Libya and the Central African Republic and sent to South Sudan.
They added there were credible accusations that Colombian mercenaries were fighting with the paramilitary side in Sudan.
“The only way to ensure the protection of civilians is to end this senseless conflict,” Guterres said Monday.

 


Israeli makes new Gaza ceasefire proposal but prospects appear slim

A girl stands amidst rubble in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on April 14, 2025. (AFP)
A girl stands amidst rubble in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on April 14, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 15 April 2025
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Israeli makes new Gaza ceasefire proposal but prospects appear slim

A girl stands amidst rubble in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on April 14, 2025. (AFP)
  • Hamas insists Israel commit to ending the war and pull out its forces from the Gaza Strip as agreed in the three-phase ceasefire accord that went into effect in late January
  • “Handing over the resistance’s weapons is a million red lines and is not subject to consideration, let alone discussion,” Abu Zuhri said

CAIRO: Mediator Egypt has presented a new Israeli proposal for a Gaza ceasefire to Hamas, Egyptian state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV said on Monday, but a senior Hamas official said at least two elements of the proposal were non-starters.
Citing sources, Al Qahera said mediators awaited Hamas’ response.
Hamas said in a statement later in the day that it was studying the proposal and that it will submit its response “as soon as possible.”
The militant group reiterated its core demand that a ceasefire deal must end the war in Gaza and achieve a full Israeli pull-out from the strip.
Earlier, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that the proposal did not meet the Palestinian group’s demand that Israel commit to a complete halt of hostilities.
In the proposal, Israel also for the first time called for the disarmament of Hamas in the next phase of negotiations, which the group will not agree to, Abu Zuhri said.
“Handing over the resistance’s weapons is a million red lines and is not subject to consideration, let alone discussion,” Abu Zuhri said.
Israel did not immediately comment on the reported proposal.
The head of the Egyptian state information service told Al Qahera: “Hamas knows very well the value of time now and I believe that its response to the Israeli proposal will be quick.”
Israel restarted its offensive in the enclave in March, ending a ceasefire that went into effect in late January.
The latest round of talks on Monday in Cairo to restore the ceasefire and free Israeli hostages ended with no apparent breakthrough, Palestinian and Egyptian sources said.
Hamas insists Israel commit to ending the war and pull out its forces from the Gaza Strip as agreed in the three-phase ceasefire accord that went into effect in late January.
Israel has said it will not end the war unless Hamas is eliminated and returns the remaining hostages held in Gaza.
“Hamas is ready to hand over the hostages in one batch in exchange for the end of war and the withdrawal of Israeli military” from Gaza, Abu Zuhri said.
Since restarting its military offensive last month, Israeli forces have killed more than 1,500 Palestinians, Gaza health authorities have said. It has displaced hundreds of thousands of people and imposed a blockade on all supplies entering the enclave.
Meanwhile, 59 Israeli hostages remain in the hands of the militants. Israel believes 24 of them are alive.

 


Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi visits Kuwait as part of short Gulf tour

Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi visits Kuwait as part of short Gulf tour
Updated 14 April 2025
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Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi visits Kuwait as part of short Gulf tour

Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi visits Kuwait as part of short Gulf tour
  • He was expected to discuss with the country’s emir enhanced cooperation in the industrial, environmental, tourism, construction, housing, media and sports sectors
  • Kuwait was the 2nd stop on a 2-state tour that began in Doha, where he discussed economic partnerships with Qatar’s emir

LONDON: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi arrived in Kuwait on Monday afternoon on the second leg of a two-state tour of the Arabian Gulf.

He was greeted at the Amiri Airport by Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, senior ministers and other officials. The national anthems of both countries were played and the Egyptian president and his delegation were honored with a 21-gun salute.

The two leaders were expected to discuss several of issues of mutual interest, as well as enhanced cooperation between their countries, following the signing of 10 memorandums of understanding in September last year covering the industrial, environmental, tourism, housing, construction, media and sports sectors, the Kuwait News Agency reported.

The emir of Kuwait visited Egypt in April last year, his first state visit after assuming power in December 2023.

El-Sisi flew to Kuwait from Qatar, where he discussed economic partnerships with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani. They agreed to a package of direct investments worth up to $7.5 billion, with the aim of supporting and strengthening sustainable economic development in both countries, the Middle East News Agency reported.


How Israeli settlers are able to seize Palestinian land with impunity in the West Bank

How Israeli settlers are able to seize Palestinian land with impunity in the West Bank
Updated 14 April 2025
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How Israeli settlers are able to seize Palestinian land with impunity in the West Bank

How Israeli settlers are able to seize Palestinian land with impunity in the West Bank
  • Israeli settlers and IDF soldiers are increasingly acting together, blurring the lines between military force and mob violence
  • Palestinians face growing displacement, home demolitions, and intimidation under punitive laws and unchecked settler expansion

LONDON: Attacks on Palestinian villagers in the West Bank by Israeli settlers, and the seizure or demolition of their properties under lopsided laws, are nothing new. But, ever since the start of the war in Gaza, the number and nature of such incidents has intensified.

Several attacks over the past few weeks have added to the impression that not only have settlers been given carte blanche to do as they please, but also that discipline within the ranks of the Israeli army operating in the West Bank is breaking down.

Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, Israeli troops and settlers have killed at least 917 Palestinians, including militants, in the West Bank.

On March 27, the UN humanitarian affairs office, OCHA, revealed that in the first three months of this year alone, 99 Palestinians had been killed during operations by Israeli forces in the West Bank.

Tens of thousands had been displaced from their homes, 10 UN-run schools had been forced to close, and 431 homes lacking impossible-to-acquire Israeli-issued building permits had been demolished — twice as many as over the same period last year.

An Israeli army soldier walks with a blindfolded man being detained, towards an armoured vehicle during a military operation in Nablus in the occupied West Bank on April 8, 2025. (AFP)

Occasionally, such attacks are caught on camera. That was the case at the beginning of this month, when footage circulated purportedly showing masked settlers attacking the village of Duma in the northern West Bank, setting fire to homes.

On Feb. 29, dozens of settlers, accompanied by Israel Defense Forces personnel, descended on Jinba, a shepherding community, where, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, “uniformed and civilian-dressed Israelis raided the village, broke into all the homes, dumped food, vandalized appliances and terrorized the locals.”

The supposed trigger for the attack on the village, after which dozens of Palestinian men were rounded up and arrested, was an alleged assault on a settler shepherd. In fact, phone footage later emerged appearing to show the man in question approaching Palestinians and their flock on an all-terrain vehicle and physically assaulting one of them.

“Land seizures and violence by settlers is not new, but there has been a huge increase,” Alon Cohen-Lifshitz, an architect and adviser to the Israeli nongovernmental organization Planners for Planning Rights, or Bimkom, told Arab News.

“What has changed is that there is now widespread collaboration between the settlers, the army, the authorities, and the police. Now, the army is the settler.”

Charred cars sit at the entrance of the occupied West Bank village of Duma, in the aftermath of an Israeli settler attack, on April 17, 2024. (AFP)

Often those involved in violence and intimidation are from IDF reserve units, whose members are settlers and are deployed near their own settlements, and “sometimes they are wearing uniforms, sometimes not.”

Rarely is anyone arrested. “The police put obstacles in the way of Palestinians who come to submit complaints,” said Cohen-Lifshitz.

“The army, the police, and the settlers have become a single unit, working together against the poorest, most fragile and marginalized communities that don’t do any harm. These people are not involved in anything, but they live in fear of the settlers.” 

Their “crime” is that “they are living on land which Israel and the settlers want to control and ethnically cleanse,” he added.

Planning law is also being deployed against Palestinians in the West Bank. “Israel is using it like a weapon to conquer land,” said Cohen-Lifshitz.

According to Cohen-Lifshitz, “The army, the police, and the settlers have become a single unit, working together against the poorest, most fragile and marginalized communities that don’t do any harm.” (AFP)

It was planning law, he said, that led to the creation of settlements and the fragmentation of the West Bank, and “there are plans for the Palestinians, too, but the aim of these is to limit the development, to create very small areas in which building is allowed, but at a very high density, which is not how it used to be in Palestinian villages.

“There, it was about 10 units per hectare. Now the plans for Palestinian areas propose urban densities of 100 units, allowing the authorities to justify demolitions outside these areas.”

Over the past two years, however, “there has been a huge expansion in settlement outposts and farms. But, as far as we know, not a single permit for Palestinian building has been approved.”

Apparent indiscipline in the IDF ranks has not escaped the notice of the military top brass, who appear keen to ascribe poor conduct to reserve soldiers rather than core personnel.

Israeli excavators carry out the demolition of Palestinian buildings constructed without a permit in the village of Al-Samua, south of Hebron in the occupied West Bank, on April 8, 2025. (AFP)

Although he did not comment on the violence in Duma, Israel’s top commander in the occupied West Bank, Major General Avi Bluth, condemned the actions of reservists during a raid on the Dheisheh refugee camp near Bethlehem on April 2.

Images shared on social media showed vandalized apartments, where furniture was broken and Israeli nationalist slogans spray painted on walls. In a video shared by the army last week, Bluth said that “the conduct in Dheisheh by our reserve soldiers is not what we stand for.”

“Vandalism and graffiti during an operational mission are, from our perspective, unacceptable incidents. It is inconceivable that IDF soldiers do not act according to their commanders’ orders,” he added.

A Palestinian man walks past graffiti reading in Hebrew: “Revenge (R), Fight the enemy, not the ally (L)”, in a building after an attack by Israeli settlers, near the West Bank city of Salfit on April 8, 2025. (AFP)

It would be a mistake, however, to interpret the escalation in violence in the West Bank as the result of a collapse of discipline, said Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, who served in the Israeli army for six years and took part in the 1982 Lebanon war.

“This is not about discipline. This is something else — the execution of a plan,” he said. “The war in Gaza is all but over. The main front now is the West Bank, where I think the Israelis are trying to implement a big plan to empty it of its people and annex it.”

The IDF, in Bregman’s view, has changed.

“Many IDF units, especially infantry, are now dominated by right-wing settlers. They have managed to penetrate these units to such an extent that I think it is not an exaggeration to say that many units, especially infantry, which is relevant because they are on the ground, are led by settlers.”

The driving force, he believes, is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who is also a defense minister and is responsible for the administration of the West Bank.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, who served in the Israeli army for six years said that many IDF units, especially infantry, are now dominated by right-wing settlers. (AFP)

Leader of the far-right Religious Zionism party, Smotrich is himself a settler, who, in the words of a profile in The Times of Israel, “has long been a vociferous supporter of West Bank settlements and just as strongly opposes Palestinian statehood, subscribing to the view that Jews have a right to the whole land of Israel.”

The support of Israeli ministers for the settlers goes beyond mere words. Last year, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir gave more than 120,000 firearms to settlers. More recently, Smotrich and Orit Strock, the settlements and national missions minister, gifted 21 ATVs to illegal farms and outposts in the South Hebron hills, to be used “for security purposes.”

Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a US-registered non-profit that collects data on conflict and protest around the world, says its findings support the anecdotal evidence that violence against Palestinians in the West Bank is escalating.

“It is not always clear who is responsible,” Ameneh Mehvar, ACLED’s senior Middle East analyst, told Arab News.

“Is it always settlers, or soldiers, security squads, regional defense battalions? There is a blurring of lines. But we have definitely seen problematic behavior by soldiers in the past few weeks.”

Palestinians inspect the damage at a shop on January 21, 2025, after it was burnt in overnight Israeli settler attacks in Jinsafot village east of Qalqiliya in the occupied West Bank. (AFP)

Traditionally, she said, “the IDF’s rules of engagement in the West Bank were different. The policy of the Central Command was to limit violence and maintain the status quo — for practical reasons, as much as anything else, because settlers and Palestinians live side by side.

“But since Oct. 7, things have become much worse. There is a spirit of revenge and the soldiers feel they have the support of the rhetoric of far-right, pro-settler politicians. It isn’t necessarily that senior commanders are ordering more violence, but that junior commanders on the ground are allowing it.

“So what we’re seeing is a mix of this permissible environment, and the redeployment to the West Bank of soldiers from Gaza, coming back from the war there with the mindset that Palestinians are not humans. They use the same rules of engagement — that everyone is dangerous, anything is allowed, shoot first, and ask questions later.”

The pro-settlement parties in Israel, she said, “are no longer fringe actors, but are part of the mainstream in Israeli politics, and their aim is obviously annexation of parts of the West Bank.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu’s biggest interest is staying in power, and in order to keep his coalition together he has been giving a lot of incentives to the pro-settlement parties and politicians.”

Israeli soldiers fire teargas at Palestinian farmers as they leave their land after they were attacked by Israeli settlers as they farmed in Salem village east of Nablus in the occupied West Bank on November 28, 2024. (AFP)

The IDF’s ongoing so-called “Iron Ball” operation in the northern West Bank is taking place against this background. According to the UN Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, the assault on Jenin Camp, which began two months ago, is “by far the longest and most destructive operation in the occupied West Bank since the Second Intifada in the 2000s.”

The UN says that tens of thousands of residents from Jenin, Tulkarm, Nur Shams, and Far’a refugee camps have been displaced, as the IDF has embarked on “systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure and homes, aiming to permanently change the character of Palestinian cities and refugee camps at a scale unjustifiable by any purported military or law enforcement aims.”

Although the world’s attention has been focused on Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon, “what is happening in the West Bank is not a sideshow,” said Mehvar.

“Before Oct. 7, settler attacks were already on the rise. But now the West Bank is a powder keg that could explode at any time.”