Fitch Ratings withdraws from Lebanon 

Lebanon has been in default on its foreign-currency obligations since March 2020, significantly influencing its rating assessment. Shutterstock
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Updated 23 July 2024
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Fitch Ratings withdraws from Lebanon 

RIYADH: The unavailability of certain key data has led Fitch Ratings to withdraw from categorizing Lebanon, as the agency no longer has sufficient information to maintain its assessment of the nation. 

The global credit rating agency has affirmed Lebanon’s long-term foreign and local-currency issuer default ratings as restricted and has subsequently withdrawn the nation’s IDR and country ceiling. 

Restricted default indicates a country has neglected specific financial obligations while continuing to meet others. 

This means that the agency has confirmed Lebanon’s long-term debt ratings as restricted and ceased providing assessments and analysis for the country due to insufficient data. 

Lebanon has been in default on its foreign-currency obligations since March 2020, significantly influencing its rating assessment. 

The government’s failure to repay the Eurobond, which was due on March 9, 2020, led to its categorization as restricted default.

“The government has stopped servicing its outstanding stock of Eurobonds pending a debt restructuring,” the agency said.  

The local-currency IDRs remain in restricted default due to the government’s failure to resume interest payments on Banque du Liban’s holdings of local-currency securities despite continuing to serve local-currency debt to private creditors. 

Fitch also stated that the authorities have not initiated a local-currency debt restructuring. 

The agency’s decision to withdraw Lebanon’s ratings was driven by the issuer’s cessation of publishing national accounts and fiscal data, which are now only available up to 2021. 

This lack of up-to-date financial information has made it unfeasible for Fitch to maintain accurate ratings. 

The agency added that Lebanon’s environmental, social, and governance relevance score for political stability and rights and for the rule of law, institutional and regulatory quality, and control of corruption stands at five. 

This reflects the high impact of the World Bank Governance Indicators in Fitch’s Sovereign Rating Model. 

“Lebanon has a low WBGI ranking at 14.8, reflecting the absence of a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, relatively weak rights for participation in the political process, weak institutional capacity, uneven application of the rule of law and a high level of corruption,” the agency added. 


Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf states widens to $12.4 billion amid free trade agreement talks

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Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf states widens to $12.4 billion amid free trade agreement talks

  • Pakistan’s exports to GCC rose 16 percent, but higher oil imports widened the trade gap
  • Analysts warn FTA may deepen deficit, citing imbalance in Pakistan-China trade deal

KARACHI: Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf nations widened by 14 percent to $12.4 billion in the outgoing fiscal year through May, even as the country pushes for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to boost exports and market access, official statistics show.

The trade gap stood at $10.9 billion during the same period last year, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Pakistan’s exports to the region grew to $5.08 billion — up 16 percent — while imports rose 14 percent to $17.5 billion.

The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.

Shankar Talreja, director of research at Topline Securities, attributed the widening trade imbalance primarily to surging imports from the UAE, Pakistan’s largest oil supplier in the bloc.

“Pakistan’s imports from the UAE have increased by 32 percent in 11MFY25,” Talreja told Arab News from Karachi. “This is a whopping increase of $1.5 billion.”

Overall, imports from the UAE jumped 46 percent to $8.33 billion, while exports to the country totaled $3.96 billion. In contrast, imports from Saudi Arabia dropped 15 percent to $3.47 billion.

The increase in oil imports comes as Pakistan, which heavily depends on petroleum products from the GCC, monitors global crude trends.

Prices spiked by 13 percent to $77 per barrel after Israel attacked Iran on June 13, before easing by 6 percent on June 24 following a ceasefire announcement.

“Pakistan largely relies on petroleum products from the GCC region and overall petroleum import bill in FY26 is unlikely to increase as oil prices are currently 10 percent lower than the average oil price of July-May period,” Talreja noted.

“This lower oil price may offset volumetric increase, leaving overall petroleum import bill unchanged,” he added.

Last year, Pakistan spent $17 billion on oil imports, more than twice the size of its most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan package. The IMF has urged the government to ramp up exports to stabilize its fragile external account.

To that end, Islamabad is pursuing bilateral and multilateral trade deals, including FTAs with the GCC, South Korea, Vietnam, East Africa and Central Asian states.

While Commerce Ministry spokesperson Muhammad Ashraf did not respond to queries, another official confirmed the FTA was under negotiation.

“The FTA talks with the GCC nations are ongoing but I am not sure if they have finalized anything,” the ministry official said, requesting anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Pakistan’s Economic Survey for FY2024-25 mentions both the Pakistan-GCC FTA and the Pakistan-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as “upcoming agreements.”

However, Talreja expressed skepticism about the potential gains.

“Pakistan has never benefitted from FTAs, like in case of China our deficit with China has further increased,” he said.

Islamabad’s FTA with Beijing, signed in 2006, has consistently produced unfavorable trade outcomes. The bilateral trade deficit with China stands at $2.5 billion this fiscal year, according to SBP figures.

“In the case of the Middle East, I doubt that Pakistan will benefit as it’s a very competitive market due to the global access the GCC has,” Talreja added. “Islamabad could only benefit if it negotiated something extraordinary.”

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is also pushing to expand trade with the United States, Pakistan’s top textile buyer, by negotiating reciprocal tariffs. Talks are expected to conclude next week.

As part of these discussions under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, Islamabad is seeking greater access for mangoes, dates and beef in the US market.

Pakistan’s trade prospects in the European Union remain strong after its GSP+ status, granting zero-duty access on 66 percent of tariff lines, was renewed.

A preferential trade agreement with the eight-member Organization for Economic Cooperation also came into force in January.

Still, officials warn that the country’s export profile remains vulnerable due to over-reliance on a handful of markets.

“The overall export trajectory signals Pakistan’s reliance on a few core markets, highlighting the need for diversification and expanded global outreach to minimize exposure to external shocks,” the finance ministry said in its economic survey.


Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974

Updated 25 June 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974

  • MSCI Tadawul 30 Index rose 0.06% to 1,407.47
  • Parallel market Nomu lost 0.05% to close at 26,837.30

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s main stock index closed slightly higher on Wednesday, as gains in select industrial and infrastructure stocks offset broader market weakness.

The Tadawul All Share Index added 9.7 points, or 0.09 percent, finishing the session at 10,973.98. Total trading turnover was SR6.10 billion ($1.62 billion), with 180 stocks advancing while 66 declined.

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also recorded a modest gain, rising 0.06 percent to 1,407.47.

In contrast, the parallel market Nomu dipped slightly, losing 13.49 points, or 0.05 percent, to close at 26,837.30. A total of 35 stocks posted gains on Nomu, while 45 ended in the red.

Sustained Infrastructure Holding Co. led the market with a sharp 9.89 percent increase to SR30.55, followed by Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., which rose 9.83 percent to SR11.84. Saudi Arabia Refineries Co. also saw strong momentum, climbing 5.48 percent to a new yearly high of SR63.50.

Among the session’s notable losers, Specialized Medical Co. dropped 3.36 percent to SR24.16, Zamil Industrial Investment Co. slipped 2.29 percent to SR40.60, and Arabian Contracting Services Co. fell 2.12 percent to SR96.90.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian Mining Co., known as Ma’aden, received shareholder approval to raise its capital from SR38.03 billion to SR38.89 billion during its extraordinary general assembly meeting held on June 24. The 2.26 percent increase will lift the number of issued ordinary shares from 3.80 billion to 3.89 billion.

According to a company disclosure on the Saudi Exchange, the capital hike will be carried out through the issuance of 85.98 million new ordinary shares at a par value of SR10. These shares will be allocated as part of an acquisition agreement to purchase full ownership of two subsidiaries: Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. and Ma’aden Aluminium Co.

Under the transaction, Ma’aden will acquire all 128.01 million shares held by AWA Saudi in the bauxite firm, representing 25.1 percent of its capital, along with 165 million shares held by Alcoa Saudi in the aluminum unit—also a 25.1 percent stake.

Shares of Ma’aden rose 0.2 percent to end the day at SR50.70.

Red Sea International Co. also announced plans to publicly list its subsidiary, Fundamental Installation for Electric Work Co. Ltd., subject to regulatory and shareholder approval. The decision was approved by the board in a resolution passed on June 23 and implemented the following day.

While Red Sea International will not offer any of its own shares in the IPO, the move is considered a significant transaction due to the subsidiary’s strategic role in the group’s operations. The company’s stock rose 0.12 percent to close at SR42.50.


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 

Updated 25 June 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 

  • National non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — grew 6.8%
  • Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts accounted for 27.7% of total imports

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports saw an annual rise of 24.6 percent in April, reaching SR28.36 billion ($7.56 billion) thanks to a sharp increase in re-exports and a strong performance in chemicals and plastics.

According to data released by the General Authority for Statistics, national non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — grew 6.8 percent during the month, while the value of re-exported goods increased 72 percent. 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports hit a record SR515 billion ($137 billion) in 2024, up 13 percent from 2023 and over 113 percent since the launch of Vision 2030 in 2016, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil by expanding industrial, mining, and service sectors. 

The strong non-oil export performance comes as the World Bank projects Gulf economic growth to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, driven by the rollback of OPEC+ oil production cuts and continued momentum in non-oil sectors.

In its latest release, GASTAT stated: “Among the most important non-oil exports are plastics, rubber, and their products, which constituted 21.7 percent of total non-oil exports, recording a 4.0 percent increase compared to April 2024.” It added that chemical products followed at 21 percent of the total, with a 2.3 percent year-on-year increase.

The release stated that merchandise exports decreased by 10.9 percent in April compared to the same month of the previous year, as a result of a 21.2 percent decrease in oil exports. 

“Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports decreased from 77.5 percent in April 2024 to 68.6 percent in April 2025,” said the report. 

This led to a narrowing of the trade surplus by 61.7 percent compared to the same period last year

The ratio of non-oil exports, including re-exports, to imports rose to 37.2 percent in April, up from 35.4 percent a year earlier — largely due to the increases in non-oil exports and imports of 24.6 percent and 18.3 percent, respectively. 

On the import side, machinery, electrical equipment, and parts accounted for 27.7 percent of total imports, rising 25.4 percent year on year. Transportation equipment and parts followed at 17.2 percent, with a 64.5 percent surge.

China remained Saudi Arabia’s top export destination, accounting for 12.6 percent of the total in April. Japan ranked second at 10.1 percent, followed by the UAE at 9.8 percent.

Other key destinations included India, South Korea, and the US, as well as Egypt, Malta, Poland, and Bahrain — with exports to these 10 markets comprising 67.5 percent of total exports.

On the import front, China was also the top origin, representing 25 percent of the total, followed by the US at 7.5 percent and the UAE at 6.8 percent. 

Imports from India, Germany, and Japan, as well as Italy, Switzerland, the UK, and France, together made up 66.3 percent of the total.

In terms of customs points, the King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam handled 26 percent of total imports in April, followed by Jeddah Islamic Sea Port at 20.4 percent, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh at 13.9 percent, King Abdulaziz International Airport at 12.6 percent, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam at 5.7 percent. 

These five ports together accounted for 78.6 percent of total merchandise imports.

The strong performance in non-oil exports comes after Fitch Ratings in February affirmed Saudi Arabia’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom’s robust fiscal and external balance sheets. The agency also noted that Vision 2030 has played a central role in diversifying one of the Middle East’s strongest economies.


Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop

Updated 25 June 2025
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Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop

  • Spending on transportation increased by 28.7%
  • Construction and building materials saw a 25.6% uptick

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s point-of-sale spending in the education sector saw a weekly rise of 666 percent to reach SR193.26 million ($51.53 million) by June 21, according to official data.

The latest figures from the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, also showed the number of POS transactions in the sector nearly doubled, climbing by 98.1 percent, indicating a significant rebound in consumer activity in this segment.

This sharp increase in educational spending came despite a 1.5 percent decline in the total value of POS transactions across the Kingdom, which dropped from SR11.1 billion to SR10.9 billion over the same period.

The weekly data further showed that transaction values rose in several other sectors, although none matched the scale of growth seen in the education division.

Spending on transportation increased by 28.7 percent, while construction and building materials saw a 25.6 percent uptick in value.

Telecommunication and health sectors both posted gains of 4.8 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively.

The electronics and electric devices segment recorded a 16.8 percent rise in spending value, and the furniture sector grew by 4.4 percent.

Slight increases were also observed in the public utilities and miscellaneous goods and services sectors, which grew by 3.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

However, several categories experienced downturns. The largest declines in transaction values were reported in the hotels and recreation and culture sectors, which fell by 9.1 percent and 14.7 percent, respectively.

Regionally, Riyadh remained the top city for POS spending, logging over SR3.91 billion in transactions, a 9.1 percent increase from the previous week. Dammam and Khobar also recorded gains, with spending in Dammam up by 8.4 percent and in Khobar by 5.1 percent.

Cities such as Makkah and Madinah recorded double-digit declines, down by 24.2 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively, in total POS transaction values.

Jeddah maintained a steady performance, with spending remaining flat at SR1.6 billion, while Tabuk saw a slight uptick of 3 percent in value.

Spending in restaurants and cafes dropped by 12.8 percent, while beverage and food transactions declined by 7.2 percent.

Jewelry purchases also contracted by 12.8 percent, and clothing and footwear fell by 7.2 percent. Other sectors, such as gas stations and the category, also saw declines of 5.1 percent.

Overall, the total number of POS transactions across all sectors dipped slightly by 0.6 percent week on week, totaling just over 202.5 million transactions during the reporting period.


Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

Updated 25 June 2025
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Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

  • Outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157% of GDP
  • Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2025

RIYADH: The UAE’s long-term foreign-currency rating has been affirmed at “AA-” with a stable outlook by Fitch, reflecting the country’s consolidated government debt, strong net external asset position, and high gross domestic product per capita. 

The US-based rating agency noted that this outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157 percent of the UAE’s gross domestic product in 2024 — which rank among the highest of all Fitch-rated sovereigns. 

The agency noted the ongoing regional geopolitical risks, but it assumes the conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran will be contained and short-lived. 

The report comes as Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the US, which took effect on June 24, following 12 days of conflict that raised fears of a broader regional escalation. 

In its commentary, Fitch Ratings stated: “A regional conflagration would pose a risk to Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon infrastructure and to Dubai as a trade, tourism and financial hub,” 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023. Shutterstock

It emphasized that “the UAE’s ratings could absorb some short-term disruptions given large fiscal and external buffers.” 

Fitch’s assessment follows S&P Global’s recent assignment of “AA/A‑1+” with a stable outlook for its foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to the UAE, citing the country’s strong fiscal and external positions. 

The agency also noted that the UAE’s sizable asset cushion would help shield it from oil price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions. 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023, with surpluses in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and budget deficits in Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. 

It projected a fiscal breakeven oil price of $45–$50 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, excluding investment income, which Fitch attributed partly to “rising oil production volumes and the significant share of spending by GREs (government-related entities).” 

“We forecast the consolidated surplus at 5.3 percent of GDP in 2025 and 5.9 percent in 2026. Narrower deficits in Sharjah and higher oil production levels in Abu Dhabi will mitigate the forecast drop in oil prices from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65/bbl in 2025 and 2026,” Fitch said. 

It added: “Dubai will retain a budget surplus.” 

With regard to the federal government’s budget, Fitch stated that it remains below 4 percent of GDP and is primarily focused on core services.

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. Shutterstock

The report emphasized that the federal budget must remain balanced by law, leaving limited scope for borrowing or adjustment. From 2026 onward, corporate tax revenue is expected to help offset reduced grants from Abu Dhabi. 

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. “We estimate overall contingent liabilities from GREs of the emirates and the FG in 2023 at about 62 percent of UAE 2023 GDP,” the report said, though it acknowledged that many state-owned entities are financially sound. 

Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2 percent in 2025, supported by a 9 percent increase in oil production from Abu Dhabi and strong non-oil growth of over 4 percent, driven by investment and population expansion. However, it warned of risks from “lower oil prices and global growth uncertainties.” 

Earlier this month, the UAE Central Bank’s Quarterly Economic Review for December 2024 reported that the country’s GDP reached 1.77 trillion dirhams ($481.4 billion) in 2024, growing 4 percent. Non-oil sectors contributed 75.5 percent of the total — highlighting continued economic diversification. 

The central bank maintained its real GDP growth forecast at 4 percent for 2024, with an anticipated acceleration to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026. 

On governance, Fitch said the UAE maintains an ESG Relevance Score of “5[+]” for political stability, rule of law, and institutional quality.

The agency credited the UAE’s “record of domestic political stability, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption,” referencing World Bank Governance Indicators, where the country ranks in the 70th percentile.