Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

“Cautious optimism” for transitional govt
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Updated 14 April 2025
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Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?
  • London-based Syria analyst Ghassan Ibrahim expresses cautious optimism about country’s post-Assad future, including relations with Israel
  • Calls for lifting of sanctions which are “hurting ordinary people,” unpacks Al-Sharaa government’s evolving ties with Turkiye, Russia and Iran

RIYADH: As Syria navigates a precarious path away from the decades-long rule of the Assad dynasty, Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria analyst, says cautious optimism defines the moment.

Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs show that dives deep into regional developments with leading policymakers and analysts, Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa.

“Yes, I’m optimistic, but cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The situation in Syria is not that easy. President Bashar Assad, when he left, literally made sure that all the institutions in Syria were not functioning. He stayed in power until the last day. And after that, when he left, literally, he left the country on its knees.”

Four months into a new political chapter, Syria’s fledgling government faces enormous hurdles: institutional collapse, brain drain, poverty, insecurity and a sanctions regime that continues to paralyze the economy.

“There is big hope,” Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen, “but the question is: Where will they bring all these resources from, to make them function as in any other government around the world?”

The economic picture is bleak. Over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and basic infrastructure has either collapsed or is running at a fraction of capacity. Ibrahim said the country’s rich natural resources — oil, gas, and minerals — remain largely idle. And a mass exodus of skilled professionals and entrepreneurs over the last 14 years has left a human capital vacuum.

“Literally, there is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones, especially the investors, and as well, the people who can participate in the new reform,” he said.




All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development —a Syria open for normalization with every normal country, including Israel, London-based analyst Ghassan Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN Photo)

Yet Ibrahim insists that the absence of large-scale sectarian violence after Assad’s fall is in itself a major achievement. “No one was thinking that Syria will end up after Assad leaves without a huge sectarian war,” he said.

Though there have been some flare-ups — most notably a wave of killings in the western coastal region in early March — Ibrahim said the response has so far avoided mass escalation.

“If we look at the full picture, it’s something promising, but requires a lot of work,” he added.

President Al-Sharaa’s first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia was not just symbolic — it was strategic, according to Ibrahim.

“He is trying to relocate Syria within a new alliance — an alliance of modernity, stability and open-minded policies,” he said, noting the president’s praise for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Al-Sharaa’s ongoing visit to the UAE, he added, could prove essential to Syria’s reintegration with the region. “Syria needs now friends and brothers to help them, to lead, to guide them,” Ibrahim said. “The UAE is capable, through its wide network internationally, of opening the door, to reintroduce the new Syria to the world.”




Al-Sharaa with foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani on the way for talks in the UAE. (X/@AssadAlshaibani)

He also said the visits send a reassuring message that Syria does not wish to destabilize the region. “Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers,” he added.

On the horizon is a visit to Turkiye, a former adversary now positioned as a “typical friend,” in Ibrahim’s words. But the relationship is more complicated. While ties with Ankara could help stabilize Syria’s north and resolve Kurdish tensions, Ibrahim warned that Turkish involvement risks aggravating fears in Israel and reintroducing regional rivalries into Syrian soil.

“We’ve noticed the involvement of Turkiye has caused two troubles somehow: With the Kurdish internally and with Israel,” he said.

The prospect of renewed conflict with Israel looms large. Southern Syria has seen a spike in Israeli airstrikes targeting what it says are weapons depots and military infrastructure. But Ibrahim said the new Syrian leadership is avoiding provocation.

“They are trying to, well, calculate the risk. They don’t want to behave like a militia. They want to be a state,” he said. “We’d rather leave some — there is some, I think, second-track diplomacy open now between Syria and Israel.”

According to Ibrahim, there is growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship. “Israel, in the end of the day, will understand it’s not to their advantage to partition the country,” he added.




Al-Sharaa attends an interview with Reuters at the presidential palace in Damascus in March. (Reuters/File Photo)

Iran, by contrast, remains a destabilizing force, he warned. “They invested the most in this war and they lost the biggest loss in this war. So, they won’t leave Syria to be a stable state without working on destabilizing it,” Ibrahim said.

He accused Tehran of supporting militias in Syria’s coastal regions and pushing for partition along sectarian lines, but added that its influence is waning. “They did not leave any good legacy behind them in Syria to let the Syrians feel they are welcome,” he said.

As Damascus distances itself from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ibrahim said the new government is signaling that it wants a reset. “Why don’t they stop exporting their revolution? Then the Syrians may consider normalization with Iran,” he added.

But without the lifting of US and European sanctions, Syria’s future remains hostage to its past.

“The sanctions at this moment are out of context,” said Ibrahim. While once meant to isolate the Assad regime, they now, in his view, cripple the new administration’s ability to govern.

“So, the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people,” he said. “If the West wants to see Syria a normal state running in a normal manner without showing any kind of hostility, they have to help. And the way to help is literally lift the sanctions.”

He said that unless sanctions are lifted, growing popular frustration may spark unrest. “If they don’t see improvements soon, they will go to the streets and we will end up with another crisis this year,” he said.

The killings in Latakia and Tartous — reportedly sparked by loyalists of the former regime — exposed how fragile the situation remains.

“It was unjustified, it was some kind of war crime, it was not acceptable,” Ibrahim said. He defended President Al-Sharaa’s early policy of clemency toward Assad loyalists, but acknowledged that it may have inadvertently fueled revenge killings.

“There was an intention that if all Syrians want to close that chapter, they don’t want to go back to that moment of sectarian war,” he said. But the strategy also allowed hostile elements to regroup.




Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. (AN Photo)

Even the composition of the new cabinet has drawn criticism, with some ethnic and religious minorities saying they were not consulted. Ibrahim said President Al-Sharaa is trying to walk a tightrope.

“Is it wrong to choose loyalists from different backgrounds as much as possible? Probably, this is not the ideal transitional government,” he said. “He wants a kind of unity in his government.”

Asked about reports that Turkiye is negotiating a defense pact that would place air defense systems in Syria, Ibrahim said Damascus has voiced its concerns directly.

“The Syrians don’t want to let their country be in a box — like a mailbox, with both sides sending messages through the Syrians,” he said.

According to Ibrahim, Syria is attempting to broker peace between Turkiye and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. A deal may even be in the works, potentially sponsored by the US.

“He does not want to enter in a proxy war on behalf of Turkiye to fight with the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Ibrahim said of Al-Sharaa. “And we may hear in the coming months some kind of like de-escalation agreement.”

While Syria seeks Western engagement, it is not abandoning ties with Moscow. Ibrahim called Russia a pragmatic partner that has kept channels open to both the former regime and the opposition.

“Probably, Russia may play a very vital role in striking a deal with Israel because the Russians have good relations with the Israelis,” he added.

Finally, Ibrahim addressed remarks by a former provincial governor in Syria to a Wall Street Journal reporter, warning that continued Israeli aggression could attract “holy warriors” from around the world.

“It’s probably the message was taken out of its context,” Ibrahim said. “There is a clear message from Damascus to around the world: Syria will not be a hub to attack any country, including Israel.”

Ibrahim pointed to Al-Sharaa’s use of the term “Israeli state” — a break from the Assad-era lexicon — as a sign of a new posture. “The Syrians look at normalization with Israel as an advantage for Syria and advantage for everyone,” he said.

Looking to the future, Ibrahim said: “All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development — free trade, a Syria open for normalization with every normal country or normal state around the world, including Israel.”

 

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Sudan paramilitary drone strike hits border city near Eritrea: govt source

Sudan paramilitary drone strike hits border city near Eritrea: govt source
Updated 6 sec ago
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Sudan paramilitary drone strike hits border city near Eritrea: govt source

Sudan paramilitary drone strike hits border city near Eritrea: govt source

KHARTOUM: Sudanese paramilitaries have carried out a rare drone strike on the eastern city of Kassala, near the Eritrean border, a source from the rival army-aligned government said Saturday.
“A drone targeted the fuel storage area at Kassala airport,” the government source told AFP, blaming it on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and reporting no casualties or damage.


Gaza rescuers say three babies among 11 killed in Israel strike

Gaza rescuers say three babies among 11 killed in Israel strike
Updated 50 min 43 sec ago
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Gaza rescuers say three babies among 11 killed in Israel strike

Gaza rescuers say three babies among 11 killed in Israel strike
  • An overnight Israeli strike on the Khan Yunis refugee camp killed at least 11 people
  • Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce

GAZA CITY: Gaza’s civil defense agency said Saturday that an overnight Israeli strike on the Khan Yunis refugee camp killed at least 11 people including three babies up to a year old.
Civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal reported 11 killed “after the bombardment of the Al-Bayram family home in the Khan Yunis camp” in southern Gaza at around 3:00 am (0000 GMT).
Bassal told AFP that eight of the dead had been identified and were all from the same extended family, including a boy and girl, both one-year-olds, and a month-old baby.
Contacted by AFP, the Israeli military did not immediately comment on the strike.
Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce in its war against Hamas that was triggered by the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack.
On Friday the civil defense agency said Israeli strikes killed at least 42 people across the war-ravaged territory, which has been under a total Israeli blockade since March 2.
Israel halted aid deliveries to Gaza, saying Hamas had diverted supplies. Israel says the blockade is meant to pressure the militants into releasing hostages held in the Palestinian territory.
UN agencies have urged Israel to lift restrictions, saying that Gazans were experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe and warning of famine.


‘The janjaweed are coming’: Sudanese recount atrocities in RSF attack on a Darfur camp

‘The janjaweed are coming’: Sudanese recount atrocities in RSF attack on a Darfur camp
Updated 03 May 2025
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‘The janjaweed are coming’: Sudanese recount atrocities in RSF attack on a Darfur camp

‘The janjaweed are coming’: Sudanese recount atrocities in RSF attack on a Darfur camp
  • The RSF has repeatedly claimed Zamzam and nearby Abu Shouk Camp were used as bases by the military and its allied militias
  • The paramilitaries destroyed Zamzam’s only functioning medical center, killing nine workers from Relief International

CAIRO: Umm Al-Kheir Bakheit was 13 when she first came to Zamzam Camp in the early 2000s, fleeing the janjaweed, the infamous Arab militias terrorizing Sudan’s Darfur region. She grew up, married and had three children in the camp.
Now 31, Bakheit fled Zamzam as the janjaweed’s descendants — a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces — stormed into the camp and went on a three-day rampage, killing at least 400 people, after months of starving its population with a siege.
Bakheit and a dozen other residents and aid workers told The Associated Press that RSF fighters gunned down men and women in the streets, beat and tortured others and raped and sexually assaulted women and girls.
The April 11 attack was the worst ever suffered by Zamzam, Sudan’s largest displacement camp, in its 20 years of existence. Once home to some 500,000 residents, the camp has been virtually emptied. The paramilitaries burned down large swaths of houses, markets and other buildings.
“It’s a nightmare come true,” Bakheit said. “They attacked mercilessly.”
The attack came after months of famine
The attack on Zamzam underscored that atrocities have not ended in Sudan’s 2-year-old war, even as the RSF has suffered heavy setbacks, losing ground recently to the military in other parts of the country.
Throughout the war, the RSF has been accused by residents and rights groups of mass killings and rapes in attacks on towns and cities, particularly in Darfur. Many of RSF’s fighters originated from the janjaweed, who became notorious for atrocities in the early 2000s against people identifying as East or Central African in Darfur.
“Targeting civilians and using rape as a war weapon and destroying full villages and mass killing, all that has been the reality of the Sudan war for two years,” said Marion Ramstein, MSF emergency field coordinator in North Darfur.
Zamzam Camp was established in 2004 to house people driven from their homes by janjaweed attacks. Located just south of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur province, it swelled over the years to cover an area 8 kilometers (5 miles) long by about 3 kilometers (2 miles) wide.
In the spring of 2024, the RSF clamped a siege around Zamzam as it moved against el-Fasher, one of the last strongholds of the Sudanese military in Darfur.
Many have died of starvation under the siege, Bakheit and others said. “For too long, there was no option but to eat grass and tree leaves,” she said.
Famine was declared in the camp in August after RSF attacks forced the UN and aid groups to pull out of Zamzam. A comprehensive death toll from the famine is not known.
Ahlam Al-Nour, a 44-year-old mother of five, said her youngest child, a 3-year-old, died of severe malnutrition in December.
The RSF has repeatedly claimed Zamzam and nearby Abu Shouk Camp were used as bases by the military and its allied militias. It said in a statement that it took control of the camp on April 11 to “secure civilians and humanitarian workers.” It denied its fighters targeted civilians. The RSF did not reply to AP’s questions on the attack.
‘The janjaweed are coming’
Bakheit, who lived on the southern edge of Zamzam, said she heard loud explosions and heavy gunfire around 2 a.m. April 11. The RSF started with heavy shelling, and people panicked as the night sky lit up and houses burst into flames, Bakheit said.
By sunrise, the RSF-led fighters broke into her area, storming houses, kicking residents out and seizing valuables, Bakheit and others said. They spoke of sexual harassment and rape of young women and girls by RSF fighters.
“The children were screaming, ‘The janjaweed are coming’,” Bakheit said.
About two dozen women who fled to the nearby town of Tawila reported that they were raped during the attack, said Ramstein, who was in Tawila at the time. She said the number is likely much higher because many women are too ashamed to report rapes.
“We’re talking about looting. We’re talking about beating. We’re talking about killing, but also about a lot of rape,” she said.
The paramilitaries rounded up hundreds of people, including women and children. Bakheit said fighters whipped, beat, insulted and sexually harassed her in front of her children as they drove her family from their home.
She said she saw houses burning and at least five bodies in the street, including two women and a boy, the ground around them soaked in blood.
The fighters gathered Bakheit and about 200 other people in an open area and interrogated them, asking about anyone fighting for the military and its allied militias.
“They tortured us,” said Al-Nour, who was among them.
Al-Nour and Bakheit said they saw RSF fighters shoot two young men in the head during the interrogation. They shot a third man in the leg and he lay bleeding and screaming, they said.
One video shared online by RSF paramilitaries showed fighters wearing RSF uniforms by nine bodies lying motionless on the ground. A fighter says he is inside Zamzam and that they would kill people “like this,” pointing to the bodies on the ground.
Much of the camp was burned
The RSF rampage, which also targeted Abu Shouk Camp north of el-Fasher, went on for days.
The paramilitaries destroyed Zamzam’s only functioning medical center, killing nine workers from Relief International. They killed at least 23 people at a religious school, mostly young students studying the Qur’an, according to the General Coordination for Displaced Persons and Refugees in Darfur.
Much of the south and east of the camp was burned to the ground, the General Coordination said.
Satellite imagery from April 16 showed thick black smoke rising from several active fires in the camp. At least 1.7 square kilometers (0.65 square miles) appeared to have been burned down between April 10-16, said a report by the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab, which analyzed and published the imagery. That is about 10 percent of the camp’s area.
The imagery showed vehicles around the camp and at its main access points, which HRL said were probably RSF checkpoints controlling entry and exit.
By April 14, only about 2,100 people remained in the camp, according to the UN’s International Organization for Migration.
An arduous journey
After being detained for three hours, Bakheit, Al-Nour and dozens of other women and children were released by the paramilitaries.
They walked for hours under the burning summer sun. Bakheit and Al-Nour said that as they passed through the camp, they went by burning houses, the destroyed main market and bodies of men, women, children in the streets, some of them charred.
They joined an exodus of others fleeing Zamzam and heading to the town of Tawila, 64 kilometers (40 miles) west of El Fasher. Al-Nour said she saw at least three people who died on the road, apparently from exhaustion and the effects of starvation and dehydration.
“The janjaweed, once again, kill and torture us,” Bakheit said. “Like my mother did about 20 years ago, I had no option but to take my children and leave.”


Israel carries out strikes on two Syrian cities, Syrian state news agency says

An Israeli fighter jet fires a rocket as it flies over an area near the Syrian capital Damascus on April 30, 2025. (AFP)
An Israeli fighter jet fires a rocket as it flies over an area near the Syrian capital Damascus on April 30, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 03 May 2025
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Israel carries out strikes on two Syrian cities, Syrian state news agency says

An Israeli fighter jet fires a rocket as it flies over an area near the Syrian capital Damascus on April 30, 2025. (AFP)
  • Israel bombed Syria frequently when the country was governed by Assad, targeting a foothold established by his ally Iran during the civil war

CAIRO: Israeli strikes targeted the vicinity of Syria’s Damascus, Hama and Daraa countryside late on Friday, Syrian state news agency SANA reported.
The strikes on Damascus countryside killed one civilian and injured four others in Hama, SANA added.
Israel’s repeated strikes on Syria act as a warning to the new Islamist rulers in Damascus, which Israel views as a potential threat on its border.
The Israeli army confirmed the strikes on Syria on Friday, saying it targeted “a military site, anti-aircraft cannons, and surface-to-air missile infrastructure.”
The Israeli army has previously said it targeted Syria’s military infrastructure, including headquarters and sites containing weapons and equipment, since mainly Sunni Muslim Islamist fighters toppled President Bashar Assad in December.
Earlier on Friday, Israel bombed an area near the presidential palace in Damascus, in its clearest warning yet to Syria’s new Islamist-led authorities of its readiness to ramp up military action, which has included strikes it said were in support of the country’s Druze minority.
Israel bombed Syria frequently when the country was governed by Assad, targeting a foothold established by his ally Iran during the civil war.

 


Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claims to have seized strategic western town

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claims to have seized strategic western town
Updated 02 May 2025
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Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claims to have seized strategic western town

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claims to have seized strategic western town
  • RSF paramilitaries say they took key town of Al Nahud in West Kordofan state
  • Area is home to the headquarters of the 18th Infantry Brigade

CAIRO: Sudan’s notorious paramilitary group claimed a “sweeping victory” Friday saying it took control of the key town of Al Nahud in West Kordofan state in a fight that intensified a day earlier.
A victory there by the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, would mark a strategic loss for Sudan’s military in its war with the paramilitary force as the territory is home to the headquarters of the 18th Infantry Brigade.
The Sudanese army didn’t immediately comment on its social media channels on whether it lost Al Nahud to its rival.
Sudan’s Culture and Information Minister Khalid Ali Aleisir said on his Facebook account on Friday the RSF committed crimes against defenseless citizens in the town, looting their properties and destroying public facilities.
The RSF said on its Telegram channel Friday that it destroyed vehicles belonging to the army and seized their weapons and ammunition during the battle for Al Nahud. The paramilitary group also claimed that it managed to secure the city’s facilities and markets after defeating the army.
The war erupted on April 15, 2023, with pitched battles between the military and the RSF in the streets of the capital Khartoum that quickly spread to other parts of the country.
RSF attacks in Al Nahud have killed more than 300 unarmed civilians, the Preliminary Committee of Sudan Doctors’ Trade Union said on Facebook on Friday. The Associated Press couldn’t independently verify that figure.
The Resistance Committees of Al Nahud condemned the RSF attacks, which it said began Thursday morning.
“They invaded the city, stormed residential neighborhoods, terrorized unarmed civilians, and committed cold-blooded murders against innocent civilians whose only crime was to cling to their dignity and refuse to leave their homes to the machine of killing and terror,” the Resistance Committees said Thursday on Facebook.
An army loss of Al Nahud would impact its operational capabilities in Northern Kordofan state, according to the Sudan War Monitor, an open source collaborative project that has been documenting the two-year-war. Al Nahud is a strategic town because it’s located along a main road that the army could use to advance into the Darfur region, which the RSF mostly controls.
Al Nahud also shelters displaced people fleeing from Al-Obeid, Umm Kadada, Khartoum and El-Fasher — the provincial capital of North Darfur province, according to the Darfur Victims Support Organization.
Meanwhile, in North Darfur, the fighting has killed at least 542 people in the last three weeks, though the actual death toll is likely higher, according to UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk. This figure includes the recent RSF attacks on El Fasher and Abu Shouk displacement camp, which killed at least 40 civilians.
“The horror unfolding in Sudan knows no bounds,” said Türk i n a statement on Thursday.
Türk also mentioned “extremely disturbing” reports of extrajudicial killings committed by RSF, with at least 30 men in civilian clothing executed by the paramilitary fighters in Al Salha in southern Omdurman.
“I have personally alerted both leaders of the RSF and SAF to the catastrophic human rights consequences of this war. These harrowing consequences are a daily, lived reality for millions of Sudanese. It is well past time for this conflict to stop,” said Türk.
The war in Sudan has killed at least 20,000 people, but the real toll is probably far higher. Nearly 13 million people have fled their homes, 4 million of them streaming into neighboring countries.
Half the population of 50 million faces hunger. The World Food Program has confirmed famine in 10 locations and warns it could spread further, putting millions at risk of starvation.