Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

“Cautious optimism” for transitional govt
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Updated 14 April 2025
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Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?
  • London-based Syria analyst Ghassan Ibrahim expresses cautious optimism about country’s post-Assad future, including relations with Israel
  • Calls for lifting of sanctions which are “hurting ordinary people,” unpacks Al-Sharaa government’s evolving ties with Turkiye, Russia and Iran

RIYADH: As Syria navigates a precarious path away from the decades-long rule of the Assad dynasty, Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria analyst, says cautious optimism defines the moment.

Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs show that dives deep into regional developments with leading policymakers and analysts, Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa.

“Yes, I’m optimistic, but cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The situation in Syria is not that easy. President Bashar Assad, when he left, literally made sure that all the institutions in Syria were not functioning. He stayed in power until the last day. And after that, when he left, literally, he left the country on its knees.”

Four months into a new political chapter, Syria’s fledgling government faces enormous hurdles: institutional collapse, brain drain, poverty, insecurity and a sanctions regime that continues to paralyze the economy.

“There is big hope,” Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen, “but the question is: Where will they bring all these resources from, to make them function as in any other government around the world?”

The economic picture is bleak. Over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and basic infrastructure has either collapsed or is running at a fraction of capacity. Ibrahim said the country’s rich natural resources — oil, gas, and minerals — remain largely idle. And a mass exodus of skilled professionals and entrepreneurs over the last 14 years has left a human capital vacuum.

“Literally, there is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones, especially the investors, and as well, the people who can participate in the new reform,” he said.




All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development —a Syria open for normalization with every normal country, including Israel, London-based analyst Ghassan Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN Photo)

Yet Ibrahim insists that the absence of large-scale sectarian violence after Assad’s fall is in itself a major achievement. “No one was thinking that Syria will end up after Assad leaves without a huge sectarian war,” he said.

Though there have been some flare-ups — most notably a wave of killings in the western coastal region in early March — Ibrahim said the response has so far avoided mass escalation.

“If we look at the full picture, it’s something promising, but requires a lot of work,” he added.

President Al-Sharaa’s first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia was not just symbolic — it was strategic, according to Ibrahim.

“He is trying to relocate Syria within a new alliance — an alliance of modernity, stability and open-minded policies,” he said, noting the president’s praise for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Al-Sharaa’s ongoing visit to the UAE, he added, could prove essential to Syria’s reintegration with the region. “Syria needs now friends and brothers to help them, to lead, to guide them,” Ibrahim said. “The UAE is capable, through its wide network internationally, of opening the door, to reintroduce the new Syria to the world.”




Al-Sharaa with foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani on the way for talks in the UAE. (X/@AssadAlshaibani)

He also said the visits send a reassuring message that Syria does not wish to destabilize the region. “Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers,” he added.

On the horizon is a visit to Turkiye, a former adversary now positioned as a “typical friend,” in Ibrahim’s words. But the relationship is more complicated. While ties with Ankara could help stabilize Syria’s north and resolve Kurdish tensions, Ibrahim warned that Turkish involvement risks aggravating fears in Israel and reintroducing regional rivalries into Syrian soil.

“We’ve noticed the involvement of Turkiye has caused two troubles somehow: With the Kurdish internally and with Israel,” he said.

The prospect of renewed conflict with Israel looms large. Southern Syria has seen a spike in Israeli airstrikes targeting what it says are weapons depots and military infrastructure. But Ibrahim said the new Syrian leadership is avoiding provocation.

“They are trying to, well, calculate the risk. They don’t want to behave like a militia. They want to be a state,” he said. “We’d rather leave some — there is some, I think, second-track diplomacy open now between Syria and Israel.”

According to Ibrahim, there is growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship. “Israel, in the end of the day, will understand it’s not to their advantage to partition the country,” he added.




Al-Sharaa attends an interview with Reuters at the presidential palace in Damascus in March. (Reuters/File Photo)

Iran, by contrast, remains a destabilizing force, he warned. “They invested the most in this war and they lost the biggest loss in this war. So, they won’t leave Syria to be a stable state without working on destabilizing it,” Ibrahim said.

He accused Tehran of supporting militias in Syria’s coastal regions and pushing for partition along sectarian lines, but added that its influence is waning. “They did not leave any good legacy behind them in Syria to let the Syrians feel they are welcome,” he said.

As Damascus distances itself from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ibrahim said the new government is signaling that it wants a reset. “Why don’t they stop exporting their revolution? Then the Syrians may consider normalization with Iran,” he added.

But without the lifting of US and European sanctions, Syria’s future remains hostage to its past.

“The sanctions at this moment are out of context,” said Ibrahim. While once meant to isolate the Assad regime, they now, in his view, cripple the new administration’s ability to govern.

“So, the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people,” he said. “If the West wants to see Syria a normal state running in a normal manner without showing any kind of hostility, they have to help. And the way to help is literally lift the sanctions.”

He said that unless sanctions are lifted, growing popular frustration may spark unrest. “If they don’t see improvements soon, they will go to the streets and we will end up with another crisis this year,” he said.

The killings in Latakia and Tartous — reportedly sparked by loyalists of the former regime — exposed how fragile the situation remains.

“It was unjustified, it was some kind of war crime, it was not acceptable,” Ibrahim said. He defended President Al-Sharaa’s early policy of clemency toward Assad loyalists, but acknowledged that it may have inadvertently fueled revenge killings.

“There was an intention that if all Syrians want to close that chapter, they don’t want to go back to that moment of sectarian war,” he said. But the strategy also allowed hostile elements to regroup.




Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. (AN Photo)

Even the composition of the new cabinet has drawn criticism, with some ethnic and religious minorities saying they were not consulted. Ibrahim said President Al-Sharaa is trying to walk a tightrope.

“Is it wrong to choose loyalists from different backgrounds as much as possible? Probably, this is not the ideal transitional government,” he said. “He wants a kind of unity in his government.”

Asked about reports that Turkiye is negotiating a defense pact that would place air defense systems in Syria, Ibrahim said Damascus has voiced its concerns directly.

“The Syrians don’t want to let their country be in a box — like a mailbox, with both sides sending messages through the Syrians,” he said.

According to Ibrahim, Syria is attempting to broker peace between Turkiye and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. A deal may even be in the works, potentially sponsored by the US.

“He does not want to enter in a proxy war on behalf of Turkiye to fight with the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Ibrahim said of Al-Sharaa. “And we may hear in the coming months some kind of like de-escalation agreement.”

While Syria seeks Western engagement, it is not abandoning ties with Moscow. Ibrahim called Russia a pragmatic partner that has kept channels open to both the former regime and the opposition.

“Probably, Russia may play a very vital role in striking a deal with Israel because the Russians have good relations with the Israelis,” he added.

Finally, Ibrahim addressed remarks by a former provincial governor in Syria to a Wall Street Journal reporter, warning that continued Israeli aggression could attract “holy warriors” from around the world.

“It’s probably the message was taken out of its context,” Ibrahim said. “There is a clear message from Damascus to around the world: Syria will not be a hub to attack any country, including Israel.”

Ibrahim pointed to Al-Sharaa’s use of the term “Israeli state” — a break from the Assad-era lexicon — as a sign of a new posture. “The Syrians look at normalization with Israel as an advantage for Syria and advantage for everyone,” he said.

Looking to the future, Ibrahim said: “All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development — free trade, a Syria open for normalization with every normal country or normal state around the world, including Israel.”

 

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UN’s top anti-racism body calls for immediate Gaza aid access

UN’s top anti-racism body calls for immediate Gaza aid access
Updated 09 May 2025
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UN’s top anti-racism body calls for immediate Gaza aid access

UN’s top anti-racism body calls for immediate Gaza aid access
  • Civilian population ‘at imminent risk of famine, disease and death,’ statement warns
  • Israel has blocked humanitarian aid entering Gaza since March in bid to ‘pressurize Hamas’

NEW YORK CITY: The UN’s top anti-racism body has called for immediate humanitarian access to Gaza in a bid to avoid “catastrophic consequences” for its civilian population.

The statement by the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination — comprised of independent experts — came hours after the World Central Kitchen charity said it was forced to end operations in Gaza due to a lack of food.

It also follows a commitment by Israel to “conquer” almost all of the enclave, as well as disputes involving Israel, the UN and US over the appropriate way to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians there.

The CERD committee is convening in Geneva for its latest session, ending today.

Gaza’s civilian population, “especially vulnerable groups such as children, women, the elderly and persons with disabilities,” are “at imminent risk of famine, disease and death,” the committee said.

The warning follows an earlier appeal by the World Food Programme, the UN’s food agency, which said that almost all food aid operations in Gaza had collapsed.

Late last month, the agency announced that the entirety of its food reserves in the enclave had been depleted.

Since March, Israel has blocked humanitarian aid into Gaza in a bid to build pressure on Hamas, which still holds Israeli hostages.

Tom Fletcher, the UN’s emergency relief coordinator, said last week: “Two months ago, the Israeli authorities took a deliberate decision to block all aid to Gaza and halt our efforts to save survivors of their military offensive.

“They have been bracingly honest that this policy is to pressurize Hamas.”

Expanded military operations by Israel in Gaza over the past two months “have dramatically worsened the humanitarian crisis and severely endangered the civilian population,” Friday’s CERD statement said.

The committee called on Israel to “lift all barriers to humanitarian access, allow the immediate and unimpeded entry of humanitarian aid, and cease all actions obstructing the provision of essential services to the civilian population in Gaza.”

The statement also highlighted worsening conditions across the Occupied Palestinian Territories, including in East Jerusalem, where Israel closed six UNRWA schools this week.

Philippe Lazzarini, the Palestinian refugee agency’s chief, reacted with fury over the move, describing it as an “assault on children.”

The CERD statement called on all UN states to “cooperate to bring an end to the violations that are taking place and to prevent war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, including by ceasing any military assistance.”


UN committee warns of ‘another Nakba’ in Palestinian territories

UN committee warns of ‘another Nakba’ in Palestinian territories
Updated 09 May 2025
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UN committee warns of ‘another Nakba’ in Palestinian territories

UN committee warns of ‘another Nakba’ in Palestinian territories
  • During the 1948 war, around 760,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes in what became known as “the Nakba”

GENEVA: The world could be witnessing “another Nakba” expulsion of Palestinians, a United Nations committee warned Friday, accusing Israel of “ethnic cleansing” and saying it was inflicting “unimaginable suffering” on Palestinians.

For Palestinians, any forced displacement evokes memories of the “Nakba,” or catastrophe — the mass displacement in the war that accompanied to Israel’s creation in 1948.

“Israel continues to inflict unimaginable suffering on the people living under its occupation, whilst rapidly expanding confiscation of land as part of its wider colonial aspirations,” warned a UN committee tasked with probing Israeli practices affecting Palestinian rights.

“What we are witnessing could very well be another Nakba,” it said, after concluding an annual mission to Amman.

During the 1948 war, around 760,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes in what became known as “the Nakba.”

The descendants of some 160,000 Palestinians who managed to remain in what became Israel presently make about 20 percent of its population.

The UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the Human Rights of the Palestinian People and Other Arabs of the Occupied Territories was established by the UN General Assembly in December 1968.

The committee is currently composed of the Sri Lankan, Malaysian and Senegalese ambassadors to the UN in New York.

“What the world is witnessing could very well be a second Nakba. The goal of wider colonial expansion is clearly the priority of the government of Israel,” they said in their report.

“Security operations are used as a smokescreen for rapid land grabbing, mass displacement, dispossession, demolitions, forced evictions and ethnic cleansing, in order to replace the Palestinian communities with Jewish settlers.”


Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement

Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement
Updated 09 May 2025
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Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement

Iran, US to resume nuclear talks on Sunday after postponement
  • Fourth round of indirect negotiations, initially set for May 3 in Rome, postponed due to ‘logistical reasons’

DUBAI: Iran has agreed to hold a fourth round of nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday in Oman, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said on Friday, adding that the negotiations were advancing.

US President Donald Trump, who withdrew Washington from a 2015 deal between Tehran and world powers meant to curb its nuclear activity, has threatened to bomb Iran if no new deal is reached to resolve the long unresolved dispute.

Western countries say Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran accelerated after the US walkout from the now moribund 2015 accord, is geared toward producing weapons, whereas Iran insists it is purely for civilian purposes.

“The negotiations are moving forward, and naturally, the further we go, the more consultations and reviews are needed,” Aragchi said in remarks carried by Iranian state media.

“The delegations require more time to examine the issues that are raised. But what is important is that we are on a forward-moving path and gradually entering into the details.”

The fourth round of indirect negotiations, initially scheduled for May 3 in Rome, was postponed, with mediator Oman citing “logistical reasons.”

Aragchi said a planned visit to Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Saturday was in line with “continuous consultations” with neighboring countries to “address their concerns and mutual interests” about the nuclear issue. 


No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon

No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon
Updated 09 May 2025
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No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon

No milk, no diapers: US aid cuts hit Syrian refugees in Lebanon
  • Merhi and her family are among the millions of people affected by Trump’s decision to freeze USAID funding to humanitarian programs
  • Since the freeze, the UNHCR and WFP have had to limit the amount of aid they provide

BEIRUT: Amal Al-Merhi’s twin 10-month-old daughters often go without milk or diapers.

She feeds them a mix of cornstarch and water, because milk is too expensive. Instead of diapers, Merhi ties plastic bags around her babies’ waists.

The effect of their poverty is clear, she said.

“If you see one of the twins, you would not believe she is 10-months-old,” Merhi said in a phone interview. “She is so small and soft.”

The 20-year-old Syrian mother lives in a tent with her family of five in an informal camp in Bar Elias in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

She fled Syria’s civil war in 2013 and has been relying on cash assistance from the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR to get by.

But that has ended.

Merhi and her family are among the millions of people affected by US President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze USAID funding to humanitarian programs.

Since the freeze, the UNHCR and the World Food Program (WFP) have had to limit the amount of aid they provide to some of the world’s most vulnerable people in countries from Lebanon to Chad and Ukraine.

In February, the WFP was forced to cut the number of Syrian refugees receiving cash assistance to 660,000 from 830,000, meaning the organization is reaching 76 percent of the people it planned to target, a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the WFP’s shock responsive safety net that supports Lebanese citizens cut its beneficiaries to 40,000 from 162,000 people, the spokesperson added.

The UNHCR has been forced to reduce all aspects of its operations in Lebanon, said Ivo Freijsen, UNHCR’s country representative, in an interview.

The agency cut 347,000 people from the UNHCR component of a WFP-UNHCR joint program as of April, a spokesperson said. Every family had been receiving $45 monthly from UNHCR, they added.

The group can support 206,000 Syrian refugees until June, when funds will dry up, they also said.

“We need to be very honest to everyone that the UNHCR of the past that could be totally on top of issues in a very expedient manner with lots of quality and resources — that is no longer the case,” Freijsen said. “We regret that sincerely.”

BAD TO WORSE
By the end of March, the UNHCR had enough money to cover only 17 percent of its planned global operations, and the budget for Lebanon is only 14 percent funded.

Lebanon is home to the largest refugee population per capita in the world.

Roughly 1.5 million Syrians, half of whom are formally registered with the UNHCR, live alongside some 4 million Lebanese.

Islamist-led rebels ousted former Syrian leader Bashar Assad in December, installing their own government and security forces. Since then there have been outbreaks of deadly sectarian violence, and fears among minorities are rising.

In March, hundreds of Syrians fled to Lebanon after killings targeted the minority Alawite sect.

Lebanon has been in the grips of unyielding crises since its economy imploded in 2019. The war between Israel and armed group Hezbollah is expected to wipe billions of dollars from the national wealth as well, the United Nations has said.

Economic malaise has meant fewer jobs for everyone, including Syrian refugees.

“My husband works one day and then sits at home for 10,” Merhi said. “We need help. I just want milk and diapers for my kids.”

DANGEROUS CHOICES
The UNHCR has been struggling with funding cuts for years, but the current cuts are “much more rapid and sizeable” and uncertainty prevails, said Freijsen.

“A lot of other questions are still to be answered, like, what will be the priorities? What will still be funded?” Freijsen asked.

Syrian refugees and vulnerable communities in Lebanon might be forced to make risky or dangerous choices, he said.

Some may take out loans. Already about 80 percent of Syrian refugees are in debt to pay for rent, groceries and medical bills, Freijsen said. Children may also be forced to work.

“Women may be forced into commercial sex work,” he added.

Issa Idris, a 50-year-old father of three, has not received any cash assistance from UNHCR since February and has been forced to take on debt to buy food.

“They cut us off with no warning,” he said.

He now owes a total of $3,750, used to pay for food, rent and medicine, and he has no idea how he will pay it back.

He cannot work because of an injury, but his 18-year-old son sometimes finds work as a day laborer.

“We are lucky. We have someone who can work. Many do not,” he said.

Merhi too has fallen into debt. The local grocer is refusing to lend her any more money, and last month power was cut until the family paid the utility bill

She and her husband collect and sell scrap metal to buy food.

“We are adults. We can eat anything,” she said, her voice breaking. “The kids cannot. It is not their fault.”


Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding

Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding
Updated 09 May 2025
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Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding

Kurdish PKK says held ‘successful’ meeting on disbanding
  • The PKK will share “full and detailed information with regard to the outcome of this congress very soon,” it said
  • In February, Ocalan urged his fighters to disarm and disband

ISTANBUL: The outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) held a “successful” meeting this week with a view to disarming and dissolving, the Kurdish agency ANF, which is close to the armed movement, announced on Friday.
The meeting resulted in “decisions of historic importance concerning the PKK’s activities, based on the call” of founder Abdullah Ocalan, who called on the movement in February to dissolve.
The congress, which was held between Monday and Wednesday, took place in the “Media Defense Zones” — a term used by the movement to designate the Kandil mountains of northern Iraq where the PKK military command is located, the agency reported.
The PKK will share “full and detailed information with regard to the outcome of this congress very soon,” it said.
In February, Ocalan urged his fighters to disarm and disband, ending a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
In his historic call — which took the form of a letter — Ocalan urged the PKK to hold a congress to formalize the decision.
Two days later, the PKK announced a ceasefire, saying it was ready to convene a congress but said “for this to happen, a suitable secure environment must be created,” insisting it would only succeed if Ocalan were to “personally direct and lead it.”
The PKK leadership is holed up in Kurdish-majority mountainous northern Iraq where Turkish forces have staged multiple air strikes in recent years, targeting the group which is also blacklisted by Washington and Brussels.