The deadlock in Afghan peace talks has broken
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Finally, there is some good news from Doha. After months of hectic negotiations, the Afghan government and Taliban have reached an agreement on a framework for peace talks. The development has removed the main obstacle in the way of structured negotiations. The agreement on the procedure has cleared the way for the two sides to turn their focus now on a political roadmap and long-term nationwide ceasefire.
The talks between the Afghan government representatives and the Taliban began in Doha on Sept. 10. It was the first time since the start of the war that the two warring sides sat face to face to discuss the country‘s post-war future. It followed the historic Feb. 29 peace agreement between the US and the Taliban that raised hope for the end of the 20-year long war in Afghanistan.
But the intra-Afghan talks hit a snag as the two sides differed on basic principles guiding formal negotiations to determine the future political course in the war-torn country. The issues were finally resolved with both sides stepping back from their hardline positions.
Last month, the Taliban said the rules and procedures were settled but then the Afghan government objected to some of the words in the preamble that set off accusations that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was holding up the deal. The Kabul government had insisted on the use of the prefix Islamic Republic of Afghanistan against ‘Islamic Emirates’ used by the Taliban. The matter was resolved with the Taliban conceding.
Another point of contention was a reference to the Hanafi School of Islamic thought as the foundation of all laws in Afghanistan. Initially, the two sides differed on a formulation that does not alienate other sects, particularly Afghanistan’s Shiite minority. The dispute was resolved after the two sides agreed to refer the issue to a religious committee.
There is no likelihood of any major change in the US troop withdrawal plan under the new US administration. Some reports suggested that Afghan president Ashraf Ghani had deliberately stalled talks with the Taliban in the hope that the new president would pull back from the US peace deal with the Taliban. But President Elect Joe Biden has long advocated pulling out from Afghanistan.
Zahid Hussain
Both sides have now agreed on some 20 point preambles. The three-page document lays out the rules and procedures for the next round of negotiations on the political roadmap. The main stumbling block in any progress in the talks is the issue of a permanent ceasefire.
There has been a marked escalation in violence in Afghanistan as the two sides engaged in peace talks in Doha. While observing a ceasefire with American forces, the Taliban continued attacking Afghan security forces in an attempt to expand areas under their control. The insurgents have so far refused to agree on a long-term ceasefire. At least 205 Afghan security forces and 196 civilians were reportedly killed in the fighting in the month of November alone.
The breakthrough in intra-Afghan talks came following the visit to Doha of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week, where he met both Afghan and Taliban delegates. The meetings seem to have helped break the ice.
“As negotiations on a political roadmap and permanent ceasefire begin, we will work hard with all sides for a serious reduction of violence and even a cease-fire during this period,” Zalmay Khalilzad the special US-Afghan peace envoy said.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon has approved troop drawdown plans in Afghanistan announced by President Donald Trump just before the US presidential election. The US plans to pull out 2,000 more troops by Jan. 15, 2021 bringing down the level of troops in Afghanistan to 2,500.
General Mark Milley, Chairman Joint Staff Committee said that the US would maintain two military and several satellite bases in Afghanistan for counterterrorism operations against Daesh and Al Qaeda. NATO has roughly 11,000 troops in Afghanistan, but under the Feb. 29 US-Taliban deal, all foreign troops will leave the country by May 1, 2021 if conditions allow.
There is no likelihood of any major change in the US troop withdrawal plan under the new US administration. Some reports suggested that Afghan president Ashraf Ghani had deliberately stalled talks with the Taliban in the hope that the new president would pull back from the US peace deal with the Taliban. But President Elect Joe Biden has long advocated pulling out from Afghanistan.
Surely, the finalization of the guideline is a very significant move forward in the Afghan reconciliation process but there is still a long way to go for the two warring sides to reach a consensus on a post-war political arrangement.
A ceasefire, the rights of women and minorities, and constitutional amendments are expected to top the agenda. There are also issues such as safety guarantees for thousands of Taliban fighters who disarm, as well as for disbanding the heavily armed militias loyal to Kabul warlords.
It is going to be a rough road to peace in Afghanistan.
- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholar, USA, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with militant Islam (Columbia university press) and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan (Simon and Schuster, NY). Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ.
Twitter: @hidhussain
