Will Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal trigger a violent new Great Game?

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Updated 17 July 2021
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Will Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal trigger a violent new Great Game?

  • Security vacuum being formed by the exit of US and NATO forces creates opportunities for regional powers
  • Russia, Central Asian countries, Iran, China and India have a stake in what comes next in Afghanistan

BERN, Switzerland: Afghanistan is no stranger to foreign interference. In the 19th century, Britain and Russia sparred for control over the ancient terrain in a shadow match popularly known as the Great Game.

Today, the game continues, only now it has many more players, and the stakes are arguably far higher.

After 20 years in Afghanistan, America’s longest war is finally drawing to a close. But for the Afghan people, whose war began decades before US boots even touched the ground, the prospect of peace seems a very long way off as their sense of certainty and security once again unravels.

As US and NATO forces pull out, people within and outside Afghanistan alike have voiced concern about the cohesion of the country in the wake of soaring ethnic and tribal tensions, waves of troop surrenders and a weakened central government. 

Nick Carter, Britain’s chief of the defense staff, has been quoted as saying it is “plausible” that the Afghan state would collapse without international forces there.

Unlike the Iraq invasion of 2003, Afghanistan was often viewed as “the good war” — emancipating the Afghan people, particularly women, from the cruelties of Taliban misrule. And yet, with every passing day, a resurgent Taliban is seizing control over ever more territory.

Furthermore, the economic gains of the past 20 years have been modest at best. The World Bank put the country’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 at $19.8 billion — just slightly ahead of Mali, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. Per capita GDP was $507, near the bottom of global rankings.

The Afghan economy remains largely dependent on overseas aid. Some 44 percent of the population works in agriculture, while 60 percent derive at least part of their income from farming. Private-sector development has been hampered by Afghanistan’s chronic security deficiencies.




US Army soldiers from 2-506 Infantry 101st Airborne Division and Afghan National Army soldiers race to get out of the way of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter landing in hostile territory during the launch of Operation Radu Bark VI in the Spira mountains in Khost province, five kms from the Afghan-Pakistan Border. (AFP/File Photo)

To trace the genesis of the current conflict, it is necessary to rewind to the events of 1979, when Soviet tanks rumbled across the Oxus River to help shore up a fractious communist regime in Kabul. When a decade-long mujahideen rebellion, backed by the US and its allies, finally sent the Russians packing in 1989, a bloody civil war ensued, culminating in the rise of the Taliban.

The Taliban regime lasted five brutal years, sending the country back to the dark ages. It was from his hideout in Afghanistan that Osama bin Laden masterminded the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. When the regime in Kabul refused to hand him over, the US quickly invaded and removed the Taliban from power.

Fast forward to 2021, and NATO forces are themselves withdrawing in a manner similar to their erstwhile Soviet opponents before them. US President Joe Biden has assured the American people their troops will be home by Aug. 31.

The political upheavals since 1979 have led to flights of Afghans to neighboring countries in search of safety and economic security. According to estimates from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are 3.5 million Afghan refugees — 90 percent of them hosted by Pakistan and Iran and 65 percent of them children, creating what many are calling a lost generation.




Farzana, who fled her village in Helmand province when it was taken over by the Taliban earlier this year, waits to see a doctor at a mobile clinic for women and children set up at the residence of a local elder in Yarmuhamad village, near Lashkar Gah in Helmand province. (AFP/File Photo)

The UNHCR has given warning of a fresh wave of displacement if the security situation deteriorates any further in the wake of the NATO withdrawal. The agency counted 1.44 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan as of July this year. Since January alone, 224,000 more have crossed the Pakistani frontier. Islamabad has said it simply cannot take any more.

Refugees place a significant strain on host countries — and few more than Pakistan, where per capita GDP in 2020 stood at around $1,170 and fiscal deficit was 8.1 percent. This has no doubt grown worse under the pressures of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Pakistan’s porous border with Afghanistan has been exploited by Taliban fighters, Al-Qaeda operatives, and all manner of smugglers and bandits. The resulting violence and lawlessness have taken their toll on the economy and local people. In Balochistan and Sindh, a flood of drugs and arms has had a disintegrating effect on vulnerable sections of society.

As a strategic ally in America’s war on terror, Pakistan has often been lavished with Western aid, but has also been penalized for hosting Islamic militants of every stripe within its borders.




An Afghan National Army (ANA) helicopter takes off inside the Bagram US air base after all US and NATO troops left, some 70 Kms north of Kabul on July 5, 2021. (AFP)

From a Pakistani perspective, which way this pendulum swings appears to depend on Washington’s relations with India, which took a keen interest in the reconstruction of war-torn Afghanistan to counter Pakistani influence.

Iran, for its part, hosts roughly 980,000 documented Afghan refugees. When the undocumented are included, the number swells to 1.5 million. For sanctions-crippled Tehran, this is a huge economic burden.

Per capita GDP in Iran fell from $6,950 to $5,940 between 2017 and 2020, according to Trading Economics. But unlike Pakistan, the government at the very least has the means to regulate its borders.

The regime is also known to have used young Shiite Afghans to fight its battles in Syria under the banner of the Fatemiyoun division. It also holds a significant stake in the local economy of Afghanistan’s western province of Herat.

Given its interest in Afghanistan’s fortunes, Iran is now reportedly in negotiations with both the Taliban and the government in Kabul.




An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier stands guard at a gate of a hospital inside the Bagram US air base after all US and NATO troops left, some 70 Km north of Kabul on July 5, 2021. (AFP)

Afghanistan’s northern neighbors Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, meanwhile, are also concerned about a potential wave of refugees. Their economies would have a hard time absorbing such an influx given their structural difficulties and relatively low median per capita GDP in 2019 of $2,465, $3,580, and $8,005, respectively.

All three countries have held consultations with the local power broker, Russia, on the economic and security ramifications of the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian deputy foreign minister and special envoy for Afghanistan, last week met with Taliban leaders, who assured him they would respect the territorial integrity of the former Soviet republics should they retake power.

Then there is China — a nation with major investments, and ambitions, in the region.

Beijing believes the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is premature — unsurprising, given it is overseeing investments worth more than $60 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which links the Middle Kingdom to the Baloch deep-sea port of Gwadar.




Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (C) and other members of the Taliban delegation arrive to attend an international conference on Afghanistan over the peaceful solution to the conflict in Moscow on March 18, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

China also has sizable investments in the Central Asian republics, which supply it with gas and minerals, and which are also part of its Belt and Road Initiative, as is Iran. Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, is currently visiting Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to take the regional pulse.

In Afghanistan itself, China had signed a $2.8 billion deal to exploit a copper deposit in Mes Aynak, southeast of Kabul, and in 2019 imported Afghan pine nuts worth $40 million. But, overall, China’s involvement in reconstruction projects has been modest and it has thrown little money into the Afghan economy.

The Taliban has assured China its investments in the country are more than welcome. Habitually cautious Beijing is nevertheless concerned about the rapidly changing facts on the ground.

With so many regional players having a stake in what comes next for Afghanistan, there is more than a mere whiff of the Great Game about the period ahead. Indeed, the withdrawal of NATO troops will leave a geopolitical vacuum that many players are now eager to fill.

In a commentary on Thursday, Indian strategic expert and syndicated columnist, Brahma Chellaney, drew an analogy between Afghanistan and Vietnam. He said: “Recall the last time the US left a war unfinished: In 1973, it hastily abandoned its allies in South Vietnam. The next year, 90,000 South Vietnamese soldiers and civilians were reportedly killed as a result of the conflict, making it the deadliest year of the entire Vietnam War.”

If the Taliban retakes power or engages the Afghan government in a prolonged and savage conflict, there will be serious political, economic and humanitarian ramifications for Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially those with ethnic ties to the rainbow of cultures that make up Afghan society.

But there is far more at stake for the Afghan people than the interests and investments of foreign states. The last 20 years have seen the creation of an active civil society in Afghanistan, including a vibrant free press and active women’s representation.

On the possibility of those gains evaporating soon, former US President George W. Bush, who deployed American forces to the Middle East in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, said: “I’m afraid Afghan women and girls are going to suffer unspeakable harm.”

Every kilometer the Taliban advances toward Kabul, the faster the worst-case scenario unfolds for the region.

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* Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources


Volcano erupts after quake in Russia’s far east

Updated 4 sec ago
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Volcano erupts after quake in Russia’s far east

Eruptions of the Klyuchevskoy volcano — the highest active in Europe and Asia — are quite common
“The Klyuchevskoy is erupting right now,” Russia’s Geophysical Survey said

MOSCOW: A volcano in Russia’s far east erupted on Wednesday, Russian scientists said, hours after a major quake prompted evacuations and tsunami alerts across parts of the Pacific coast.

Eruptions of the Klyuchevskoy volcano — the highest active in Europe and Asia — are quite common, with at least 18 of them happening since 2000 according to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program.

“The Klyuchevskoy is erupting right now,” Russia’s Geophysical Survey said on Telegram, posting photos of an orange blaze on top of the 4,700 meter (15,000 feet) volcano.

“Red-hot lava is observed flowing down the western slope. There is a powerful glow above the volcano and explosions,” it added.

Earlier on Wednesday, an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Russia’s far eastern Kamchatka region.

The tsunami warning in Kamchatka was lifted 11 hours later as the quake causing massive waves have spared the sparsely populated area close to Japan.

No major damage or casualties from its eruptions were ever recorded, with the closest big city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsk located hundreds of kilometers away.

22 killed in Angola fuel hike unrest since Monday

Updated 30 July 2025
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22 killed in Angola fuel hike unrest since Monday

  • Sporadic gunfire was heard across Luanda and several other cities on Monday and Tuesday as people looted shops and clashed with police when violence erupted during a taxi strike

LUANDA: Unrest in Angola following protests against a fuel price hike has killed 22 people since Monday, the interior minister said, as calm returned to the capital.
Sporadic gunfire was heard across Luanda and several other cities on Monday and Tuesday as people looted shops and clashed with police when violence erupted during a taxi strike.
The strike was the latest in a series of protests after the price of fuel was hiked from 300 to 400 kwanzas ($0.33 to $0.43) a liter on July 1, squeezing living costs for the millions of poor in one of Africa’s top oil producers.
“We regret 22 deaths, including one police officer,” Interior Minister Manuel Homem told reporters in a press conference on Wednesday.
Nearly 200 people were injured in the violence, he said, and more than 1,200 people had been arrested.
Shops and businesses remained closed in Luanda on Wednesday as security forces patrolled the city.
The streets were largely empty as people stayed home, although there were some queues outside petrol stations and shops, AFP reporters said.
Police in the southern city of Lubango confirmed separately that a police officer had shot and killed a 16-year-old on Tuesday.
The teenager was part of a group attempting to invade the headquarters of the ruling MPLA party, a statement said.
Anger against the price hike was also the focus of a demonstration of around 2,000 people in Luanda on Saturday, with protesters also alleging government corruption.
There had been similar protests the two previous weekends.
Four people were killed on the first day of the unrest on Monday, according to police.
Local media reported other victims on Tuesday.
TV Nzinga showed women weeping over a body in a street in Luanda’s central Cazenga area as people ran out of a supermarket carrying food and goods. The report did not say how the person was killed.
In the same area, a young man was killed near a supermarket, apparently by a stray bullet, an AFP reporter said.
Protests and unrest were also reported outside the capital, including in the city of Huambo, around 600 kilometers (370 miles) north of Luanda, police said.
Images on social media also showed protests in the coastal city of Benguela, south of the capital.
The Portuguese-speaking country of more than 36 million has a high inflation rate that neared 20 percent in June, while the unemployment rate hit almost 30 percent, according to the national statistics authority.


IndiGo’s revenue slows as India-Pakistan tensions, Air India crash weigh

Updated 30 July 2025
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IndiGo’s revenue slows as India-Pakistan tensions, Air India crash weigh

  • India’s largest carrier by market share reports 4.7% rise in revenue to $2.34 billion in April-June quarter
  • CEO says April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, border clashes caused ” hundreds of cancelations”

NEW DELHI: Budget airline IndiGo posted slower first-quarter revenue growth on Wednesday, weighed down by subdued demand following border tensions between India and Pakistan and a fatal Air India crash during the quarter.

India’s largest carrier by market share reported a 4.7% rise in revenue to 204.96 billion rupees ($2.34 billion) in the April-June quarter, a sharp slowdown from the 17.3% growth logged a year ago.

“The June quarter was shaped by significant external challenges that created headwinds for the entire aviation sector,” Chief Executive Pieter Elbers said in a statement.

An April attack on civilians in Indian Kashmir, followed by border clashes between India and Pakistan led to “hundreds and hundreds of cancelations,” Elbers said in a post-earnings media call.

India has blamed Islamabad for the attack, which the latter has denied.

Shortly after, an Air India plane crashed in Ahmedabad and killed 260 people in June, spurring flying anxiety among many travelers.

“All in all, that has led ... to (have) some impact on the market,” Elbers said, but added that so far, the second quarter appears to be stabilizing.

Despite the recent slowdown, IndiGo has benefited from rising incomes, sustained post-pandemic domestic travel demand, along with continued fleet and network expansion.

Still, the company posted a lower quarterly profit, bogged down by ballooning foreign exchange losses.

Its yield — the average money earned from a passenger for every kilometer traveled — fell 5%.

The airline’s first-quarter capacity — measured in available seat kilometers — grew 16.4% on-year.

The firm had projected a “mid-teens percentage range” growth in May.


Australia’s first Muslim MP calls for country to recognize Palestine

Ed Husic is the first Muslim to be elected to federal parliament.
Updated 34 min 52 sec ago
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Australia’s first Muslim MP calls for country to recognize Palestine

  • Ed Husic: Govt should follow in UK’s footsteps as part of tide of ‘moral momentum’
  • ‘Hamas is built largely on grievance. That grievance gets removed with the establishment of a state of Palestine’

LONDON: Australia’s first Muslim MP and government minister has said his country should recognize a Palestinian state, following in the footsteps of the UK as part of a tide of “moral momentum.”

The appeal by Labor’s Ed Husic, who was elected in 2010, came as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is to hold further talks with his British counterpart Keir Starmer in the coming days.

Starmer pledged this week to recognize a Palestinian state in September if Israel fails to reach a ceasefire with Hamas, among other conditions.

If Australia does the same, it would deprive Hamas of its power in Gaza and expedite the peace process, Husic said.

“Hamas is built largely on grievance. That grievance gets removed with the establishment of a state of Palestine, nurtured with the cooperation and support of the international community, progressed through the development of democratic institutions,” he added.

The former minister said his Labor colleagues feel increasingly aggrieved over the situation in Gaza, calling on them to urge Australian recognition of a Palestinian state.

“There is a deep feeling within the caucus, about how right it is to recognize Palestine, and I would much rather that colleagues speak for themselves,” he added.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong signed an international statement calling for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Albanese, however, declined to immediately follow Starmer’s decision despite Australia’s government previously signaling that it would move in unison with international partners on measures to address the crisis in Gaza.

“What I’ve said is that it’s not the timeline, that’s not what we’re looking at. What we’re looking at is the circumstances where recognition will advance the objective of the creation of two states,” Albanese said at Parliament House after speaking with Starmer this week.

“I’ve said for a long time, my entire political life, I’ve said I support two states … That’s my objective — not making a statement, not giving a political point, but achieving peace.”


Rome summons Russian envoy over Italy president on ‘Russophobe’ list

Updated 30 July 2025
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Rome summons Russian envoy over Italy president on ‘Russophobe’ list

  • Italy’s foreign ministry said it considered “the inclusion of the head of state in this list a provocation against the republic and the Italian people“
  • Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz is also on the list

ROME: Italy on Wednesday summoned Russia’s ambassador after Moscow included Italian President Sergio Mattarella on a list of Western officials critical of the Kremlin.

Relations between Rome and Moscow — already strained by the Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion — have dipped further in recent days, with Italy canceling a concert last week of a pro-Kremlin maestro.

Italy’s foreign ministry said it considered “the inclusion of the head of state in this list a provocation against the republic and the Italian people.”

Moscow included Mattarella on its foreign ministry list of Western officials whom it accuses of using “the language of hatred” against Russia.

Other European leaders, such as Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, are also on the list.

As president, Mattarella occupies a largely ceremonial role.

But Moscow has said it included him on its list for having compared Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine to Nazi Germany.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been a staunch advocate of Kyiv, with Italy hosting a conference on Ukraine’s recovery earlier this month.

In a statement Wednesday, she expressed solidarity for Mattarella and said his inclusion on the list was “nothing more than yet another propaganda operation aimed at diverting attention from Moscow’s serious responsibilities.”

Italy has taken in thousands of Ukrainian refugees since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of the country.