Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’

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Updated 05 October 2024
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Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’

Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’
  • Two experts claim strategic missteps being made by the US as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify
  • Academic Hamoud Salhi and expert Jean AbiNader made the comments while appearing on Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO/LONDON: Lebanese experts have painted a bleak picture of the country’s imminent future, describing the nation as trapped “between mafia and militia” and criticizing the failure of the US to intervene effectively in the region. 

Speaking on the Ray Hanania Radio Show, Hamoud Salhi, a political science professor at California State University-Dominguez Hills, and Jean AbiNader, vice president for policy at the American Task Force on Lebanon, highlighted the strategic missteps being taken by the US, especially as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify. 

The US “is strategically being affected. Number one, can you afford continuing to sponsor this war?” Salhi said, adding that further escalation could draw Hezbollah and Iran’s regional allies, such as Yemen and Iraq, into a broader conflict.

He explained that up to this point the US had attempted to leverage its influence in the region through Israel to counterbalance growing powers such as Russia and China. 




In this photo taken at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 25, 2024, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu seems amused by whatever US President Joe Biden is telling him. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected US efforts to restrain Israel in its indiscriminate brutal war affecting civilians in Gaza and now in Lebanon. (AFP/File photo)

However, after nearly a year of conflict, Salhi questioned the sustainability of the current US approach, saying: “The US cannot sustain that. And more than anything else, Israel cannot sustain this war.” 

He warned that continued regional instability could lead to mass protests, putting “huge pressure” on the US and its Arab allies. 

“The US could potentially lose its allies in the region, the leaders they are working with,” Salhi said, adding that any potential normalization efforts must include a solution to the Palestinian’s cause. 

FASTFACTS

• A Hezbollah statement on Saturday said Hassan Nasrallah ‘has joined his fellow martyrs.’

• Israeli military said Ali Karki, commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and several other commanders, were also killed in the attack.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said ‘the resistance movement, heading by Hezbollah, will decide the fate of the region.’

He anticipated that any significant changes in Washington’s position would likely occur only after the US presidential election on Nov. 5. At that point President Joe Biden, no longer constrained by election concerns and with just over two more months left in office before the inauguration of his successor on Jan. 20 2025, “could get away with adopting decisions that could favor the region.” 

Judging by events on Thursday, when Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in New York to address the UN General Assembly, US influence over Israel is weakening.

The day before Netanyahu’s arrival, in a joint statement, the US and 11 allies, including France, the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, had called for “an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy toward the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement.” 




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows maps as he speaks during the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York City on September 27, 2024. (AFP)

The White House and French officials indicated the ceasefire plan had been coordinated directly with Netanyahu. But faced with pressure from the rightwing members of his government, Netanyahu’s first act on touching down in the US was to disown the proposal, with a spokesperson claiming that he had not even responded to it. 

Instead, the prime minister’s office said, he had “instructed the IDF to continue fighting at full force, according to the plans that were presented to him.” 

In recent months, the US, alongside Qatar and Egypt, has been a primary broker in ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had indicated that similar efforts could also halt the hostilities between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv. 

However, in the past week, both Hezbollah and Israel have escalated their attacks, and on Saturday Israeli aircraft carried out a massive airstrike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb, killing Nasrallah along with several other Hezbollah figures and possibly some Islamic Revolutionary Guards commanders.

A statement from Hezbollah on Saturday said Nasrallah “has joined his fellow martyrs” but that the group would “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine.”

This escalation followed the detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives in two waves of attacks suspected to have been carried out by Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, which killed dozens of people and injured thousands more across Lebanon. Most of the dead are believed to have been fighters, based on death notices posted online by Hezbollah.

Subsequent Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs have killed nearly 700 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. 

“The issue of Lebanon is part of the bigger picture, part of the grand design that Israel has,” said Salhi. “We could talk about the Golan (Heights), we could talk about what’s happening today even in Yemen. Those are really complex issues. 

“But it is also, as we’ve seen so far, connected to the big, big problem of the existence of an entity like Israel, who sees its security through strength, military buildup and occupation within the context of their bigger picture, which is to occupy other countries for the purpose of achieving the right agenda.” 

Israel and Lebanon have a long history of conflict, with tensions peaking during the Lebanese Civil War. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 in response to attacks from Palestinian militants, occupying southern Lebanon until 2000 while fighting a guerrilla war against Hezbollah. 

After Israel’s withdrawal, Hezbollah attacks led to the 2006 Lebanon War, which formally ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution, calling for a cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal, and the deployment of UNIFIL forces, remains only partially implemented, further entangling Lebanon in a web of unresolved conflict. 




Hezbollah became stronger and bolder after the 2006 war with Israel. When the militia marked the anniversary of the war on August 16, 2019, in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil, Hezbollah displayed a video showing a sample of its naval missiles that it used to target an Israeli warship off the Lebanese coast during the 2006 war. (AFP)

“(This situation) gets to the heart of what we’ve been saying about Lebanon for 40 years,” said AbiNader.

“In other words, most people have in their mind the image of a country torn between Christians and Muslims, which is absolutely inaccurate. And now the narrative is the country is torn between Christians and Hezbollah, or between Israel and Hezbollah. The overriding images are incorrect to begin with. 

“But we are fighting for the soul of Lebanon,” he said, adding that the question at this point was whether Lebanon was going to become “an outpost for the Iranian paramilitary called Hezbollah, or is it going to return to its weak roots as a quasi-democratic country?” 

The current situation, he said, highlighted the fragile balance underpinning Lebanon’s entire political system. 




Hezbollah fighters carry the body of their top military commander Ibrahim Aqil during his funeral in Beirut's southern suburbs on September 22, 2024. Aqil and other commanders of Hezbollah's "Radwan Force" were killed in an Israeli air strike on September 20. (AFP)

“The expression a lot of Lebanese use is, they’re caught between the mafia and the militia. Mafia, the old political leadership, and the militia, which has its own raison d’etre. 

“And so Lebanon has really put itself into a trap that underscores the question of whether or not Lebanon can survive.”

AbiNader said that Hezbollah had been able to fill the vacuum created by Lebanon’s antiquated and dysfunctional political system, itself a major obstacle to progress. 

“Until you have a (proper) state, you have Hezbollah, which has a stronger military, bank system, supermarkets, all this kind of stuff that supports people and has been done the way the government should, but didn’t,” he said. 

The Lebanese people are suffering now because “the overriding (Israeli) narrative is that Hezbollah is bad, therefore, by extension, the Lebanese are bad and so we can do whatever we want to protect our northern border.” 




Israelis take refuge in a shelter after sirens were heard in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border as border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP/File)

Israel’s current attacks on Lebanon are motivated by a determination to allow an estimated 70,000 Israelis, displaced from the north by Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks since Oct. 7, to return to their homes close to the Lebanese border. 

But the bid to drive Hezbollah back from the border region, said AbiNader, “has resulted in increased retaliation toward the Lebanese people, and very little toward Hezbollah.

“Look at the threats that Israel is making. They’re always saying: ‘OK, Lebanese civilians get out of these areas, because it’s where Hezbollah has its rocket launchers. We’re going to go in and clean up the rocket launchers.’

“Well, we just accept what’s said about Hezbollah without really knowing on the ground what’s there and not there. It’s no question (Hezbollah) are a malign force, but they also represent Lebanese people.

“So, the question is, how do we get the needs of the Lebanese people, that Hezbollah represents, met without further antagonism?”




Displaced families who fled Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon are pictured at a park where they are taking refuge in Tripoli, on September 27, 2024. (AFP)

AbiNader called for the international community to intervene and establish clear boundaries to “stop what’s happening in Lebanon,” adding that competing US interests in the region have long complicated Lebanon’s integration and progress. 

“But it’s not going to happen,” he said.

“Hezbollah and Israel certainly are not going to change. They both think they’re protecting their own people, their own interests, therefore they’re morally right. So, when you have two moral rights arguing against each other, you’re not going to have an easy resolution.” 

He added: “So until there’s some dialog about these dueling narratives — without trying to find who’s right, just to find out where’s the middle ground —  we’re going to continue to have this conflict.”

 

 


Morocco’s king calls for addressing regional inequalities

Updated 13 sec ago
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Morocco’s king calls for addressing regional inequalities

Morocco’s king calls for addressing regional inequalities
RABAT: Morocco’s King Mohammed VI urged on Tuesday the government to elaborate a new generation of reforms to ensure equal development between the country’s regions.
“It is not acceptable for Morocco – today or at any time in the future – to be a two-speed country,” the king, who has final say over the country’s strategic policies, said in an annual speech marking 26 years of his reign.
While the level of poverty has dropped in Morocco from 11.9 percent in 2014 to 6.8 percent in 2024, some inner regions show above-average poverty levels, according to the national statistics agency.
Morocco has attracted industrial investments in sectors such as aerospace and car manufacturing, which now top its exports.
However, most of the country’s GDP, industry and critical infrastructure are concentrated in the northwestern areas, leaving the rest of Morocco dependent on farming, fisheries and tourism.
“Some regions — particularly in rural areas — are still suffering from poverty and vulnerability, due to a lack of infrastructure and basic facilities,” the king said.
The new reforms should aim at improving social services, education, health care and water management as well as promoting employment, he said.
Morocco created just 82,000 jobs last year, which falls short of reducing the country’s high unemployment rate at 13.3 percent, according to the central bank.
In his speech, the king also reaffirmed Morocco’s readiness for “a frank, responsible, fraternal and sincere dialogue on the various issues pending” with Algeria.
Algeria cut ties with Morocco in 2021, halted the flow of gas, banned Moroccan flights from crossing its airspace and imposed visas on Moroccans, after the kingdom resumed ties with Israel.
The two most populous countries in the Maghreb are at loggerheads over the status of Western Sahara. Morocco considers the territory its own, while Algeria hosts and backs the Polisario Front, which seeks its own state there.
The king also thanked the UK and Portugal, the most recent Western nations to back Morocco’s autonomy plan for the territory.

Syrian, Israeli ministers to hold meeting in Baku on Thursday: diplomat

Syrian, Israeli ministers to hold meeting in Baku on Thursday: diplomat
Updated 1 min ago
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Syrian, Israeli ministers to hold meeting in Baku on Thursday: diplomat

Syrian, Israeli ministers to hold meeting in Baku on Thursday: diplomat
  • The meeting between Syrian and Israeli ministers follows a similar one between them in Paris last week
  • Baku’s meeting will focus on “the security situation, particularly in southern Syria”

DAMASCUS: A Syrian-Israeli ministerial meeting is set to take place on Thursday in Baku to discuss security matters in southern Syria, a diplomat told AFP.

The meeting between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani and Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer follows a similar meeting between the two ministers in Paris last week.

It will take place after an unprecedented visit by Shaibani to Moscow on Thursday, added the diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Russia was a key backer of former President Bashar Assad, overthrown in December.

Israel and Syria have technically been at war since 1948.

The meeting in Baku will focus on “the security situation, particularly in southern Syria.”

The Paris meeting focused mainly on “recent security developments and attempts to contain the escalation in southern Syria,” according to Syrian state television.

It came after deadly clashes in southern Syria’s Druze-majority Sweida province which killed hundreds of people.

The clashes initially pitted local Druze fighters against Bedouin tribes but soon saw the involvement of Syrian government forces and Israel, with the latter saying it wanted to protect the Druze.

Israel struck the Syrian presidential palace and the army headquarters in Damascus.

The United States, an ally of Israel that has also expressed support for Syria’s authorities, announced a ceasefire between the two sides overnight on July 18.

Before the violence in Sweida, Syrian and Israeli officials had met in Baku on July 12.

Russian bases in Syria

Israel has occupied Syria’s Golan Heights since 1967, annexing it in 1981 in a move not recognized by the international community.

The two signed a disengagement agreement a year after the 1973 war, establishing a UN-patrolled buffer zone between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights.

Since the fall of Assad, Israel deployed its troops to the buffer zone and has carried out hundreds of strikes on Syria.

Damascus admitted to holding indirect talks with Israel to reduce escalations.

The diplomat said Shaibani will head on Thursday to the Russian capital, where Assad sought refuge, and will meet with Russian officials to discuss several issues, including Russian military bases in Syria, to negotiate “the terms of the bases’ continued existence and operating rights.”

Moscow wishes to keep its naval base in Tartus and its air base in Hmeimim.

It faced heavy criticism for its intervention into Syria’s civil war on Assad’s side in 2015, supporting the government militarily and conducting countless airstrikes on rebel-held areas.

The new authorities in Damascus did not break ties with Russia after taking over, and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met Syrian interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Damascus in January.

According to the diplomat, Shaibani’s trip to Moscow will also include talks on “supporting bilateral cooperation and revitalising diplomatic and security relations” between the two countries, as well as discussing “steps regarding internal security and foreign fighters.”


Jordanian king says Gaza catastrophe ‘unlike anything witnessed’ in recent history

Jordanian king says Gaza catastrophe ‘unlike anything witnessed’ in recent history
Updated 25 min 50 sec ago
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Jordanian king says Gaza catastrophe ‘unlike anything witnessed’ in recent history

Jordanian king says Gaza catastrophe ‘unlike anything witnessed’ in recent history
  • King Abdullah affirms that ‘Jordan has been, and will remain, the greatest support for Gaza’s people’
  • He emphasized Jordan’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Gaza conflict and highlighted discussions aimed at enhancing the humanitarian response

LONDON: King Abdullah II of Jordan said on Wednesday that the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip is among the worst in modern history, as the Israeli military campaign in the Palestinian coastal enclave reaches its 22nd month.

He affirmed that “Jordan has been, and will remain, the greatest support for Gaza’s people, who are suffering from a humanitarian catastrophe unlike anything witnessed in recent history.”

During a meeting with media representatives at Al Husseiniya Palace, King Abdullah emphasized Jordan’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Gaza conflict. He highlighted discussions with Germany and Canada, as well as coordination with Arab leaders and international partners, aimed at enhancing the humanitarian response in Gaza.

“The suffering of our brethren in Gaza strikes at the very sense of our humanity, not just because it is happening at our doorstep, but also because this country was built on compassion, on standing with those who suffer,” he said.

“No matter how much we do, it can never measure up to the scale of the horror Palestinians in Gaza endure every single day, not when entire families are being erased and children are being starved.

“But that doesn’t mean that we are not doing everything in our power. We are. And we will continue to do so, relentlessly and without hesitation,” he said, Petra news agency reported.

The Jordanian leadership has been steadfast in its support of Palestinian rights, including the establishment of statehood and an end to Israeli occupation policies. Jordan was one of the first countries to conduct airlift missions in the early days of the Israeli war, delivering relief to Gaza, and dispatching hundreds of aid convoy trucks to the territory since late 2023.


Palestinian president hails ‘courageous’ New York call by 15 nations as ‘historic step toward peace’

Palestinian president hails ‘courageous’ New York call by 15 nations as ‘historic step toward peace’
Updated 53 min 38 sec ago
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Palestinian president hails ‘courageous’ New York call by 15 nations as ‘historic step toward peace’

Palestinian president hails ‘courageous’ New York call by 15 nations as ‘historic step toward peace’
  • Their call for recognition of Palestinian statehood follows UN conference, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France, on a 2-state solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians
  • It is signed by the foreign ministers of Andorra, Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia and Spain

LONDON: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas expressed his gratitude for a call by the foreign ministers of 15 Western countries for nations that have not yet officially recognized the State of Palestine to make moves to do so.

Their call came after the conclusion on Tuesday of a two-day, high-level international conference, co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and France, that took place at the UN headquarters in New York with the aim of advancing efforts to achieve a two-state solution to the decades-long conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

The statement was signed by the foreign ministers of Andorra, Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia and Spain. Not all of these countries have officially announced recognition of Palestinian statehood as yet.

Abbas described the statement as courageous, the official Palestinian Wafa News Agency reported, and added that it “represents a historic step toward achieving a just and comprehensive peace and strengthens international efforts to end the Israeli occupation and establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

He said these friendly nations had affirmed their commitment to the vision of a two-state solution and peace based on the rule of international law and relevant UN resolutions, and urged other countries to support their initiative to help ensure security and stability for all peoples in the region.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK would officially recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, unless Israel takes action to end the war and “the appalling situation in Gaza,” and commits to a long-term, sustainable plan for peace based on a two-state solution.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently announced that France will officially recognize Palestinian statehood during the General Assembly.


Egypt, Ukraine agree steps to boost grain and sunflower oil trade

Egypt, Ukraine agree steps to boost grain and sunflower oil trade
Updated 50 min 48 sec ago
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Egypt, Ukraine agree steps to boost grain and sunflower oil trade

Egypt, Ukraine agree steps to boost grain and sunflower oil trade
  • Talks focused on strengthening food supply chains and expanding Ukraine’s agricultural footprint in the Egyptian market
  • Ukraine exported $776.5 million worth of goods to Egypt in the first half of 2025

CAIRO: Egypt and Ukraine have agreed to take specific steps to boost trade in key farm commodities including grain and sunflower oil as Kyiv seeks to deepen ties with its largest trading partner in the Middle East and North Africa, the Ukrainian embassy said.

An embassy statement on Wednesday did not elaborate on the steps or provide a timeline.

The announcement came shortly after a meeting in Cairo between Ukrainian Ambassador Mykola Nahornyi and senior officials from the state grain buyer, the Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development.

Talks focused on strengthening food supply chains and expanding Ukraine’s agricultural footprint in the Egyptian market, the embassy statement said.

Ukraine exported $776.5 million worth of goods to Egypt in the first half of 2025, primarily wheat, whose exports to Egypt reached 1.31 million metric tons. Corn exports to Egypt were at 1.06 million tons and soybeans were 360,000 tons, according to the embassy.

Total bilateral trade during the period reached $947.9 million, it added.

Egypt is often the world’s largest wheat importer, relying on foreign supplies for both its subsidised bread program and private milling. Ukraine and Russia have both traditionally been the main source for Egypt’s grain imports.

But in the first half of this year, Egypt’s wheat imports fell by more than 27 percent year-on-year to around 5.2 million metric tons, with the government’s share of those imports plunging more than 57 percent to 1.5 million tons.

Ukraine’s embassy said the new measures aim to improve logistics and ensure more efficient, timely and transparent deliveries to Egypt.

The Ukrainian Embassy and Future of Egypt both did not immediately respond to a Reuters

request for comment.