BEIRUT: Lebanon has yet to give the IMF its estimate of losses in the financial system as discussions on the issue continue, but is working hard to sign a memorandum of understanding with the Fund by year-end, governor Riad Salameh told Reuters on Tuesday.
Disagreements in Lebanon over the size of the losses and how they should be distributed torpedoed IMF talks last year. The central bank, banks and political elite rejected figures set out in a government plan that was endorsed by the IMF at the time.
The issue has obstructed attempts to chart a way out of the crisis that has devastated Lebanon since 2019, sinking the currency by more than 90 percent, causing poverty to skyrocket and leading many Lebanese to emigrate.
Speaking in an interview for the upcoming Reuters Next conference, Salameh also said the bank had $14 billion of available liquidity in its reserves, and reiterated denials of wrongdoing as judicial authorities in France and Switzerland investigate money laundering allegations against him.
Salameh said an IMF program was essential for Lebanon to exit the crisis, noting the external financing it would unlock and discipline that would impose reforms.
Therefore the central bank would accept the figures for the losses as decided by the government, he said.
“We are, at this stage, still in the process of gathering the data that is requested by the IMF and the issue of the losses — the number of these losses — are not going to be a hurdle for these negotiations, at least from the side of the central bank,” he said.
Asked whether there was agreement yet on who will bear the burden of the losses — such as depositors, bank shareholders, the government and the central bank itself — Salameh said no decision had been taken “because we don’t have yet the final figures that are agreed with the IMF for the total losses.”
Last year, several sources said Salameh dug in his heels over the losses which the previous government’s plan suggested were in the $70 billion range, although higher figures have been cited. Ruling parties and commercial banks also objected to the figures, saying they were too big.
Asked when the figure would be ready, Salameh said Prime Minister Najib Mikati had set a deadline for signing the IMF memorandum of understanding by the end of 2021, which the government and central bank were working “very hard to achieve.”
Salameh became Banque du Liban (BDL) governor in 1993 and managed a pegged exchange rate that underpinned the import-dependent economy from 1997 until the meltdown.
As Lebanon’s currency sunk, the reserves were depleted as BDL provided dollars at heavily subsidised exchange rates to finance imports including fuel, food and medicine.
Salameh noted that this policy had now been largely phased out — the only imports for which dollars are being provided at subsidised rates today are medicines for some chronic illnesses and wheat, while BDL sells dollars for gasoline imports at a small discount to the market exchange rate.
“Our expectation is that if we stay on this model, for the next 12 months ... the BDL will have to fund $2.5 billion,” he said. BDL might recoup $300-$500 million from its foreign exchange platform, Sayrafa, in that timeframe, he said.
The reserves were recently boosted by the sale of over $1 billion of IMF Special Drawing Rights.
Salameh is being investigated by authorities in four European countries, including the Swiss inquiry over alleged “aggravated money laundering” at BDL involving $300 million in gains by a company owned by his brother, Raja Salameh.
Last week, he said he had ordered an audit of transactions and investments that had been the focus of media reports and this had shown no public funds were used to pay fees and commissions to the company owned by his brother. Raja Salameh has not publicly commented on the accusation.
Salameh gave the prime minister a copy of the audit last week but declined to provide Reuters with one. “In this report, it is clear that there was no embezzlement or money laundering on my side or under my guidance at the central bank,” he said.
Lebanon has yet to give IMF figure for financial losses, central bank governor says
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Lebanon has yet to give IMF figure for financial losses, central bank governor says
- Disagreements in Lebanon over the size of the losses and how they should be distributed torpedoed IMF talks last year
- Salameh reiterated denials of wrongdoing as judicial authorities in France and Switzerland investigate money laundering allegations against him
OPEC lowers 2025 global oil demand forecast, citing US tariffs
RIYADH: OPEC has trimmed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, pointing to first quarter data and recently announced US trade tariffs as key factors behind the revision.
In its latest monthly report, the oil producers’ group now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day next year—150,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate.
The group also downgraded global economic growth projections for both 2025 and 2026, citing rising uncertainty from evolving trade dynamics.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty,” the report stated.
Despite the downward revision, OPEC’s outlook remains among the most optimistic in the industry, with the group projecting continued long-term growth in oil use.
For 2026, it expects demand to increase by 1.28 million bpd, down from 1.43 million bpd previously. Total demand is now forecast at 105.05 million bpd in 2025 and 106.33 million bpd in 2026.
OPEC also reduced its forecast for non-OPEC+ liquids production, expecting growth of 910,000 bpd in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026—down by 100,000 bpd for both years.
The US was the primary contributor to the revised figures, with projected output now at 400,000 bpd in 2025 and 380,000 bpd in 2026, compared to earlier estimates of 450,000 and 460,000 bpd.
In terms of current production, OPEC+ output declined in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, mainly due to cuts by Nigeria and Iraq.
However, Kazakhstan increased production by the same amount, once again breaching its OPEC+ quota. Its March output reached 1.852 million bpd, exceeding its agreed limit of 1.468 million bpd for the first quarter.
OPEC+ is expected to increase production in April and May as part of a phased rollback of previous output cuts designed to stabilize the market.
Saudi Arabia, US to deepen mining ties after high-level talks with Energy Secretary Chris Wright
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and the US are poised to strengthen mining ties following high-level talks in Riyadh, where both sides discussed boosting investment, economic cooperation, and critical mineral supply chains.
Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar bin Ibrahim Alkhorayef met with US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright on April 13, as part of the White House official’s ongoing visit to the Kingdom, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The meeting, which was also attended by Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs Khalid bin Saleh Al-Mudaifer, focused on strengthening the strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and the US in the mining and minerals sector.
In a post on his X account, Alkhorayef said: “I met with US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright at the Ministry’s headquarters in Riyadh, where we focused on enhancing strategic cooperation in the mining sector. We also discussed future partnership prospects and reviewed the long-standing industrial relations between our two countries.”
Discussions explored ways to expand bilateral cooperation in mining, with an emphasis on the sector’s critical role in the global energy transition, advanced technologies, and clean energy-driven economies.
The talks also highlighted the importance of minerals in electric vehicle production and their components, identified key investment opportunities, and examined mechanisms to unlock their potential. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening economic collaboration and deepening long-standing ties.
Alkhorayef extended an invitation to Wright to attend the 2026 Future Minerals Forum, scheduled to be held in Riyadh.
The Kingdom aims to position mining as a foundational pillar of its industrial economy, with its mineral wealth estimated at SR9.4 trillion ($2.4 trillion), according to official figures.
Attracting international investment in the mining sector is central to Saudi Arabia’s ambition to reach $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by the end of the decade.
In March, the Kingdom announced a new incentive package to boost FDI in the mining industry, underscoring its broader strategy to diversify the economy and tap into its untapped mineral reserves.
The initiative reflects close coordination between the ministries of investment and industry through an exploration enablement program aimed at streamlining market entry for exploration firms.
The program also seeks to enhance geological surveying and foster a competitive investment environment for both local and international mining companies.
Pakistan remittances cross record $4 billion in March, Saudi Arabia remains top contributor
- Government expects economy to expand three percent this year against earlier projections of 2.5-3.5 percent
- The country broke its own record in February 2025 when overseas Pakistanis sent $3.1 billion back home
KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank governor on Monday said the current account would show a “substantial” surplus this year through June mainly on the back of a record inflow of remittances which crossed the $4 billion mark in March, with Saudi Arabia once again topping the list of biggest contributors.
Pakistan received a record-high $4.1 billion in remittances in March 2025, which bodes well for the government’s efforts to revive an economy that it expects will expand three percent this year, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) governor Jameel Ahmad said at an event at Pakistan Stock Exchange in Karachi.
The central bank had earlier projected economic growth to range from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.
“With this level of remittances, we are hoping that for the current fiscal year our current account will stay in surplus,” the governor said. “There will be a substantial surplus and this surplus is the best performance, I will say, on the external account during the last two decades.”
The country broke its own record in February when overseas Pakistanis remitted $3.1 billion.
Pakistan has faced a serious shortage of dollars and had to restrict imports in 2023 to avoid an imminent default on its foreign debts, which was avoided with the help of a last-gasp $3 billion financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Prime Minister’s Shehbaz Sharif’s government is now waiting for the IMF’s executive board to approve the next $1 billion tranche of a new program, approved in September last year, to boost foreign exchange reserves that currently stand at $10.6 billion.
The current trend in the worker remittances inflows, Ahmad said, had made the central bank revise its earlier projection of $36 billion to $38 billion for this financial year. On the basis of such healthy inflows, the country’s foreign exchange reserves were expected to surge beyond $14 billion this year.
Ahmad said the country had paid most of its external debt for FY25 and was expected to receive as much as $5 billion from external sources by the end of June.
“I am quite confident that we will be receiving $4 to $5 billion before the end of June this year,” he said, without mentioning the exact source of these funds.
Pakistan’s total debt liabilities this year amounted to $26 billion of which $16 billion was supposed to be rolled over or refinanced, the governor said. Of this, he said, $3.7 billion debt was refinanced while close to $12.4 billion has been rolled over by friendly countries including China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Out of the remaining $10 billion debt, Pakistan has already repaid $8 billion and was required to repay only $2 billion in the remaining months of this year.
“We have been servicing all those debt obligations on time,” said the SBP governor, adding that some inflows were delayed, but these would also come before June 30.
Jameel said Pakistan’s current account was stable and showed a $700 million surplus this year through February. Last year, the country’s current account showed $1.7 billion, close to half percent of GDP.
“Good thing is that we have been able to achieve this surplus despite substantial increase in imports,” he said, rejecting the claims that the government was still restricting imports.
Pakistan was also spending around $5.7 billion every month on oil and non-oil imports.
Due to the current account surplus and other policy and regulatory measures like exchange companies’ reforms, the Pakistani rupee had stabilized.
“The gap between the interbank market and the open market is very narrow,” Ahmad said.
While the economy was expected to grow three percent this year compared with 2.5 percent last year, agriculture was a major drag on economic expansion this year and rose less than one percent during the first six months through December.
Otherwise, he said, the economy was “doing well.”
“You can see the economic activity has already picked up. This is reflected in our high frequency data. Look at cement sales, look at auto sales, look at the high value textile exports,” Ahmad said.
While inflation was one of his biggest concerns previously, the central bank governor said the pace of price hikes had slowed to 0.7 percent last month, the lowest level in six decades.
Consumer prices in Pakistan have been backbreaking in recent years and rose 38 percent in May 2023. Pakistan’s central bank had to halve its interest rate to 12 percent since June last year to tame inflation in the country of more than 240 million people.
“From the current month onward, the inflation will be rising and ultimately stabilize within the target range of 5 to 7 percent [in the full year],” the central bank chief added.
Meanwhile, March 2025 data on remittances showed remittances reached $ 4.1 billion last month, a record high. In terms of growth, remittances increased by 37.3 percent and 29.8 percent on y/y and m/m basis, respectively.
Cumulatively, with an inflow of $ 28.0 billion, workers’ remittances increased by 33.2 percent during Jul-Mar FY25 compared to $ 21.0 billion received during Jul-Mar FY24.
“Remittances inflows during March 2025 were mainly sourced from Saudi Arabia ($987.3 million), United Arab Emirates ($842.1 million), United Kingdom ($683.9 million) and United States of America ($419.5 million),” the data showed.
Omani banks’ credit metrics remain stable amid robust economic growth: Fitch
RIYADH: Business conditions for Omani banks are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by sustained high oil prices and robust economic growth, a new report revealed.
Data released by Fitch Ratings indicates that the country’s growing economic diversification has strengthened its financial outlook and created new growth opportunities for banks.
Real gross domestic product is expected to accelerate, driven by expansion in both the hydrocarbon and non-oil sectors.
The report from the US credit rating agency comes after it revised Oman’s long-term foreign currency issuer default ratings to positive from stable in December, and affirmed the IDR at BB+, driven by the availability of fiscal tools to combat future shocks.
It also aligns with the positive outlooks for all Omani banks, which reflects the upgrade in the sovereign rating and expectations that better operating conditions may strengthen the fundamental profiles of some banks.
The latest Fitch analysis said: “We expect asset quality to gradually recover further in 2025, helped by write-offs and the favorable economic conditions. This should support sector capitalization. Stage 2 loans should continue to reduce, and we do not expect any material migration to Stage 3, despite the remaining pressures in the real estate, construction and hospitality sectors.”
It added: “We expect lower interest rates will have a limited impact on banks’ net interest margins and that loan impairment charges will remain moderate, along with reasonable cost discipline.”
The report also highlighted that most banks maintain solid capital reserves, primarily strengthened by healthy internal capital generation, while funding and liquidity environments remain steady.
“We expect oil prices to continue to support growth in customer deposits, which accounted for 90 percent of total sector non-equity funding,” it said.
Earlier in April, Fitch Ratings shed light on how strong economic growth and relatively high oil prices, despite a recent minor decline, are expected to sustain favorable business conditions for Omani banks in 2025.
At the time, the credit rating agency said that Oman’s dedication to economic diversification has enhanced its growth outlook and opened up new opportunities for the banking sector.
Oman achieved a 6.2 percent budget surplus and a 2.4 percent current account gain in 2024, driven by prudent fiscal policies, high oil prices, and nonhydrocarbon export growth.
In its January 2024 Article IV consultation, the International Monetary Fund credited these figures to effective economic management.
At the time, the IMF noted that despite higher social spending under a new protection law, the nonhydrocarbon primary deficit as a share of nonhydrocarbon gross domestic product remained stable, highlighting the government’s commitment to financial discipline.
Government debt as a percentage of GDP also declined further, reaching 35 percent in 2024, marking continued improvement in Oman’s economic fundamentals, the IMF added at the time.
Saudi Arabia opens skies to charter operators with new national license tender
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia has launched a public tender for a national charter air carrier license, inviting private operators to offer non-scheduled services as part of its push to expand the aviation sector.
The General Authority of Civil Aviation said interested investors must request the tender documents via email. The bidding window opened April 13 and runs through May 21, with offers to be submitted both physically in sealed envelopes and electronically in encrypted form. Bids will be opened on May 22 in Riyadh.
The move supports the Kingdom’s National Aviation Strategy, which targets facilitating 330 million passengers annually and connecting to over 250 international destinations by 2030.
In an official release, GACA said that the initiative is designed “to enhance the quality of services provided to travelers, raise the level of competitiveness.”
The development follows a February policy shift that lifted cabotage restrictions, allowing foreign charter operators to apply for domestic routes under Saudi regulations beginning May 1.
Cabotage restrictions are regulations that prohibit foreign-flagged ships or airlines from transporting goods or passengers within a country’s borders, typically allowing only domestic carriers to operate such routes to protect national industries.
The reform is expected to stimulate competition and attract foreign investment in general aviation.
The development marks a key milestone in Saudi Arabia’s ongoing efforts to diversify its aviation sector and enhance private sector participation in the growing charter services market.
According to official data, the Kingdom’s business jet sector recorded a 24 percent increase in flight volumes in 2024, with domestic flights rising 26 percent to 9,206 and international flights up 15 percent to 14,406 — reflecting the sector’s expanding contribution to the national economy.
Announcing the policy changes in February, Imtiyaz Manzary, general manager for general aviation at GACA, highlighted the significance of the move, noting that the authority is opening new opportunities for the global aviation industry by lifting restrictions on domestic charter flight operations in the Kingdom.
“This regulatory decision supports GACA’s roadmap to establish Saudi Arabia as a general aviation hub, alongside an unprecedented infrastructure program to develop new private airports and terminals across the Kingdom,” he said, as reported at the time by the Saudi Press Agency.
The removal of these restrictions forms a key part of the authority’s strategy to boost competition, attract foreign investment, and offer greater operational flexibility within the general aviation sector.
As part of its broader General Aviation Roadmap — unveiled at the Future Aviation Forum in May — GACA aims to transform the sector into a $2 billion industry by 2030, generating 35,000 jobs. The plan includes the development of six dedicated business aviation airports, nine specialized terminals, and expanded maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities for business jets.
GACA said inquiries on the license tender will be accepted via email until May 8. It also warned that discrepancies between hard and electronic copies will result in disqualification and that late submissions will not be accepted.
