Why chaos and power vacuum in Sudan are a global security concern

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Sudanese Army soldiers walk near tanks stationed on a street in southern Khartoum on May 6, 2023, amid ongoing fighting against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. (AFP)
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Updated 13 May 2023
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Why chaos and power vacuum in Sudan are a global security concern

  • Grinding conflict makes impoverished country of 45 million people a strategic target for regional extremist groups
  • North Africa, Central Africa and Horn of Africa are already teeming with heavily armed radical Islamic organizations

DUBAI: The power struggle between Sudan’s de-facto ruler and commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and Gen. Mohamed Dagalo and his Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has now been raging for three brutal weeks.

What began as tensions over the planned integration of Dagalo’s paramilitary group into the Sudanese military reached a flashpoint on April 15, when the two former allies, who had worked together to oust dictator Omar Al-Bashir less than four years ago, fell out, plunging the country into chaos.

Among the many questions on the minds of Africa analysts and geopolitical experts is whether a protracted, bitter feud between the two generals will do to Sudan what similar internecine conflicts in recent decades have done to two large, now largely ungoverned countries in North Africa — Libya and Somalia.

For the past 25 years, US administrations have regarded as Sudan as geostrategically important to their interests in both Africa and the Middle East. In the early 1990s, under the influence of the National Islamic Front (NIF), Sudan had a government hospitable to militant groups of all stripes, notably Al-Qaeda.

In 1993, the US placed Sudan on its list of state sponsors of terrorism, but by 1996, the country was viewed as a refuge, nexus and training hub for a number of international terrorist organizations, primarily of Middle Eastern origin. That year, following the passage of three critical UN Security Council resolutions, Sudan ordered the expulsion of Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden from its soil in May.

Two years later, in retaliation for the deadly Aug. 7 bombings of two US embassies in East Africa, the Bill Clinton administration ordered cruise missile strikes on a pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum, claiming that the site was used by Al-Qaeda to produce ingredients for chemical weapons.




A view of the al-Shifaa pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum after it was bombed by a US jets on August 20, 1998. (AFP File)

Over the past decade, however, Sudan has adhered to its commitments in peace deals in both Darfur and what became South Sudan, and has maintained counterterrorism cooperation with its international partners. But these achievements are in peril as the impoverished country of 45 million people sinks into a morass of lawlessness, organized criminality and economic collapse.

In recent weeks, parts of Khartoum have become war zones and civilians have poured into neighboring countries, whose own conditions are fragile owing to the risks and vulnerabilities they face. The UN refugee agency recently estimated that 800,000 people are expected to flee the conflict — many of them refugees from other countries.

The clashes have killed about 700 people so far, most of them in Khartoum and the western Darfur region, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

INNUMBERS

800,000 Total number of people expected to flee the conflict in Sudan, as estimated by the UN refugee agency.

700 Death toll in the conflict, according to the non-profit organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

1,700 Number of people wounded during the first 11 days of the conflict, as estimated by ACLED.

While the numbers of casualties and the displaced continue to rise and horrify the world, some analysts warn that the conflict may be a harbinger of a grim consequence — Sudan’s transformation into a hotbed of terrorism.

They say that if the fighting continues and troop losses mount, it is bound to create not only ungoverned spaces for terrorists to exploit, but also tempt the two feuding factions to cut deals with regional militant groups and set the stage for a spiral of warfare and lawlessness.




An RSF patrol is seen near the presidential palace in Khartoum in this photo taken on May 1, 2023. (Rapid Support Forces handout via AFP)

Hafed Al-Ghwell, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins Schools of Advanced International Studies, says the combination of a fragile security situation, economic crisis, social unrest and unstable neighborhood creates the perfect conditions for the emergence of extremist groups.

Given Sudan’s history of harboring extremist groups as well as growing instability, terrorist organizations such as Daesh and Al-Qaeda may set their eyes on the country as a potential new base. “Both the militant Islamic groups have operated in Sudan in the past. The potential for Daesh’s emergence in the country is compounded by its geographic location,” Al-Ghwell told Arab News.

“Sharing a border with Libya, Chad and Somalia, where violent extremist groups continue to operate, the porous borders and weak security infrastructure in the region create perfect conditions for terrorists to relocate and move weapons, contraband and other illicit supplies.”




Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabab recruits walk down a street on March 5, 2012 in the Deniile district of Somalian capital, Mogadishu, following their graduation. (AFP File Photo)

All this, according to Al-Ghwell, is a cause for concern not only in the Middle East, but also in Europe and the world at large.

Sudan’s strategic location, bordering the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel region, has seen it affected by regional disputes. For example, the country’s relationship with neighboring Ethiopia has been strained over tensions related to disputed farmlands along the border.

The African continent is also home to terrorist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which operates in northwest Africa and the Sahel region. Moreover, Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab also have ties to Al-Qaeda.




An image made available by propaganda Islamist media outlet Welayat Tarablos on February 18, 2015, shows Daesh militants parading in a street in Libya's coastal city of Sirte. (AFP)

Al-Ghwell says that a comeback by the Muslim Brotherhood, which was previously one of the Sudanese regime’s strongest backers, is a potential cause for concern.

“It is crucial that the international community remains vigilant in monitoring the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates. Past escalations in Sudan, even including a failed military coup attempt in September 2021, have been blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood,” he said.

“While it is difficult to predict with some certainty the exact likelihood of the Muslim Brotherhood’s return, there are several factors that suggest that the group could make a comeback in Sudan.”

The Muslim Brotherhood has a history in the country dating back to the 1950s, when the group established its first Sudanese branch. Over the next several decades, it continued to strengthen its presence in Sudan, reaching its zenith in 1989 when the Muslim Brotherhood-backed NIF seized power.




This photo taken on July 7, 1989 shows Sudanese military officials greeting General Omar Al-Bashir, who seized power from the civilian government of Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi in a coup on June 30, 1989. (AFP file)

Led by military officer and eventual Sudanese head of state Omar Al-Bashir, the NIF, which in the late 1990s changed its name to the National Congress Party (NCP), dominated Sudanese politics until the 2019 Sudanese coup d’etat. Al-Bashir’s government was accused of a litany of human rights violations, including supporting the infamous Janjaweed militias during the war in Darfur in 2004.

After 2019, the NCP was officially banned and forced underground. However, amid mounting chaos in Sudan, the country’s volatile political climate may provide favorable conditions for a return of the Muslim Brotherhood.

“If the Muslim Brotherhood were to successfully re-emerge in Sudan and consolidate its gains, it could pose a significant threat to the country itself and its neighbors. The group’s ideology could lead to a state-sanctioned crackdown on civil liberties and human rights in Sudan, stoking further unrest and potentially leading to more violence,” Al-Ghwell said.




Sudan has a history of harboring terrorists and extremist groups. One was Carlos the Jackal (Ilich Ramirez Sanchez), who was captured by French agents in Sudan in 1994 (left frame). It also once harbored Al-Qaeda mastermind Osama Bin Laden, whose portrait is shown in this combo image with Sudanese sympathizers holding prayers on May 3, 2011, in Khartoum, after he was shot dead at this hide-out in Pakistani by US commandos. (AFP file photos)

“Furthermore, the Muslim Brotherhood has a history of supporting militant groups and extremist ideologies. If the group were to gain power in Sudan, it could provide a haven for terrorist organizations and pose a threat to regional stability.”

With the war in Yemen seemingly moving at a slower pace, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) could emerge as another major threat if it seeks to move its operations to Sudan.

According to Al-Ghwell, the absence of a proper security infrastructure will make it relatively easy for AQAP to move fighters and weapons into Sudan to support cells there, or use the country as a transit point to sustain the operations of AQIM.




An image grab from a video released on March 29, 2014 by Al-Malahem Media, shows AQAP militants at an undisclosed location in Yemen. (AFP)

“A recent article in the Long War Journal says that an Al-Qaeda ideologue has called for holy war in Sudan and provided guidelines for supporters looking to join the fight. The book, which was compiled by the ideologue Abu Hudhayfah Al-Sudani and released by an extremist publishing house believed to be linked to AQAP, provides ideological justification and guidelines for waging holy war against the Sudanese state, as well as rules for prospective extremists to follow when forming a new entity,” he said.

Although multiple ceasefire agreements between the SAF and RSF have been reached since fighting first erupted in Sudan, they have quickly broken down, with the dueling factions trading blame for the collapse.

Al-Ghwell says that humanitarian aid such as water, shelter, food and medical assistance must be provided to fleeing civilians as well as the internally displaced, while financial support is vital to help stabilize the economy and nip a resurgence of extremism in the bud.




Sudanese citizens dig small holes at the shore to get potable water at the banks of the White Nile amid a water supply shortage as clashes continue in Khartoum on May 6, 2023. (REUTERS)

Looking to the future, he says, the international community should take pre-emptive action by sharing intelligence with, and training, Sudanese security forces to prevent the spread of extremist groups that could take advantage of the power vacuum.

When the fighting between Al-Burhan and Dagalo will end remains unclear. Both factions have claimed territorial control over key areas in Khartoum and other parts of the country.

Fayez, a Sudanese civilian who wanted to be identified only by his first name, recently shared with Arab News his thoughts on having to flee his homeland and his fears for the future. He was exhausted after completing a perilous journey from Sudan through the northern border into Egypt along with his new bride.




Sudanese people carry suitcases in the town of Wadi Halfa bordering Egypt on May 4, 2023 as they flee the fighting between rival Sudanese generals. (AFP)

“We managed, we survived. I don’t know what Sudan will turn into; I dread to think about it. Rather than waking up to the sound of prayer, my loved ones who are still stuck there are waking up to the sound of explosions,” Fayez said.

“I pray for their safety, I pray for my country, I pray we don’t turn into the worst version of ourselves and the worst, and wrong version of Islam, and kill each other under false ideologies.”

 


US embassy in Tripoli denies report of planned relocation of Palestinians to Libya

Updated 18 May 2025
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US embassy in Tripoli denies report of planned relocation of Palestinians to Libya

  • Palestinians vehemently reject any plan involving them leaving Gaza

TRIPOLI: The US embassy in Libya denied on Sunday a report that the US government was working on a plan to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya.
On Thurdsay, NBC News said the Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate as many as one million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya.
NBC News cited five people with knowledge of the matter, including two people with direct knowledge and a former US official.
“The report of alleged plans to relocate Gazans to Libya is untrue,” the US embassy said on the X platform.
The Tripoli-based interionationally-recognized Government of National Unity was not available for immediate comment.
Trump has previously said he would like the United States to take over the Gaza Strip and its Palestinian population resettled elsewhere.
Palestinians vehemently reject any plan involving them leaving Gaza, comparing such ideas to the 1948 “Nakba,” or “catastrophe,” when hundreds of thousands were dispossessed of their homes in the war that led to the creation of Israel.
When Trump first floated his idea after taking the presidency, he said he wanted US allies Egypt and Jordan to take in people from Gaza. Both states rejected the idea, which drew global condemnation, with Palestinians, Arab nations and the UN saying it would amount to ethnic cleansing.
In April, Trump said Palestinians could be moved “around to different countries, and you have plenty of countries that will do that.”
During a visit to Qatar this week, Trump reiterated his desire to take over the territory, saying he wanted to see it become a “freedom zone” and that there was nothing left to save.
Trump has previously said he wants to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”


Libya’s PM says eliminating militias is ‘ongoing project’ as ceasefire holds

Updated 18 May 2025
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Libya’s PM says eliminating militias is ‘ongoing project’ as ceasefire holds

  • The United Nations Support Mission in Libya expressed concern on Friday about the escalation of violence in Tripoli, calling on parties to protect civilians and public property

TRIPOLI: Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dbeibah said on Saturday that eliminating militias is an “ongoing project,” as a ceasefire after deadly clashes this week remained in place.
“We will not spare anyone who continues to engage in corruption or extortion. Our goal is to create a Libya free of militias and corruption,” Dbeibah said in a televised speech.
Dbeibah is the country’s internationally recognized leader in the west, based in Tripoli.
After Dbeibah on Tuesday ordered the armed groups to be dismantled, Tripoli was rocked by its fiercest clashes in years between two armed groups. The clashes killed at least eight civilians, according to the United Nations.
The government announced a ceasefire on Wednesday.
It followed Monday’s killing of major militia chief Abdulghani Kikli, widely known as Ghaniwa, and the sudden defeat of his Stabilization Support Apparatus group by factions aligned with Dbeibah.
SSA is under the Presidential Council that came to power in 2021 with the Government of National Unity of Dbeibah through a United Nations-backed process.
SSA was based in the densely populated Abu Salim neighborhood.
GNU’s Interior Ministry said in a statement that nine decomposed corpses were found in a morgue refrigerator in Abu Salim-based Al-Khadra hospital. It said SSA never reported them to authorities. The PM’s media office posted a video of Dbeibah greeting the security force protecting the Prime Ministry Building. It said he later received delegations from elders to discuss Tripoli’s situation and what he called “successful security operation in Abu Salim.”
“The Prime Minister stressed that this operation falls within the state’s fixed vision to eliminate armed formations outside the police and army institutions,” the media office said.
On Friday, at least three ministers resigned in sympathy with hundreds of protesters who took to the streets calling for Dbeibah’s ouster.
Dbeibah did not comment on their resignations. “The protests are annoying, but I’ve put up with them. I know some of them are real, but a lot of them are paid,” he said.
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya expressed concern on Friday about the escalation of violence in Tripoli, calling on parties to protect civilians and public property.
Libya has had little stability since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising ousted longtime autocrat Muammar Qaddafi. The country split in 2014 between rival eastern and western factions, though an outbreak of major warfare paused with a truce in 2020.
While eastern Libya has been dominated for a decade by commander Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army, control in Tripoli and western Libya has been splintered among numerous armed factions.
A major energy exporter, Libya is also an important way station for migrants heading to Europe, while its conflict has drawn in foreign powers including Turkiye, Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
State-oil firm NOC said on Friday that its operations at oil facilities are proceeding as normal, with oil and gas exports operating regularly.


Israel says it intercepted missile from Yemen

Updated 18 May 2025
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Israel says it intercepted missile from Yemen

CAIRO: The Israeli military said on Sunday that it intercepted a missile that was launched from Yemen toward Israel.
Sirens sounded in several areas in Israel, the military added.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have continued to fire missiles at Israel in what they say is solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, although they have agreed to halt attacks on US ships.
Israel has carried out strikes in response, including one on May 6 that damaged Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa and killed several people.


Syria announces commissions for missing persons, transitional justice

Updated 18 May 2025
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Syria announces commissions for missing persons, transitional justice

  • A decree signed by interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and released by the presidency announced the formation of an independent “national commission for missing persons”

DAMASCUS: Syria on Saturday announced the formation of a national commission for missing persons and another for transitional justice, more than five months after the ouster of longtime ruler Bashar Assad.
Syria’s new authorities have pledged justice for victims of atrocities committed under Assad’s rule, and a five-year transitional constitution signed in March provided for the formation of a transitional justice commission.
The fate of tens of thousands of detainees and others who went missing remains one of the most harrowing legacies of Syria’s conflict, which erupted in 2011 when Assad’s forces brutally repressed anti-government protests, triggering more than a decade of war.
A decree signed by interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and released by the presidency announced the formation of an independent “national commission for missing persons.”
The body is tasked with “researching and uncovering the fate of the missing and forcibly disappeared, documenting cases, establishing a national database and providing legal and humanitarian support to their families.”
A separate decree announced the formation of a national commission for transitional justice to “uncover the truth about the grave violations caused by the former regime.”
That commission should hold those responsible to account “in coordination with the relevant authorities, remedy the harm to victims, and firmly establish the principles of non-recurrence and national reconciliation,” according to the announcement.
The decree noted “the need to achieve transitional justice as a fundamental pillar for building a state of law, guaranteeing victims’ rights and achieving comprehensive national reconciliation.”
Both bodies will have “financial and administrative independence” and act over all of Syrian territory, according to the decrees signed by Sharaa.
In December, an Islamist-led coalition toppled Assad after five decades of his family’s iron-fisted rule and nearly 14 years of brutal war that killed more than half a million people and displaced millions more.
Tens of thousands of people were detained and tortured in the country’s jails, while Assad has been accused of using chemical weapons against his own people.
Rights groups, activists and the international community have repeatedly emphasized the importance of transitional justice in the war-torn country.
In March, Sharaa signed into force a constitutional declaration for a five-year transitional period.
It stipulated that during that period, a “transitional justice commission” would be formed to “determine the means for accountability, establish the facts, and provide justice to victims and survivors” of the former government’s misdeeds.
This week, prominent Syrian human rights lawyer Mazen Darwish told AFP that lasting peace in Syria depended on the country building a strong judicial system giving justice to the victims of all crimes committed during the Assad era.


Three killed in strike near displacement camp in Gaza, charity says

Updated 17 May 2025
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Three killed in strike near displacement camp in Gaza, charity says

  • Strike hit just 100 meters from main entrance of Hope Camp 4, a site Action for Humanity operates for displaced civilians

GAZA: A strike near a displacement camp in Deir Al-Balah, central Gaza, has killed three people, according to the humanitarian organization Action For Humanity.

In a statement released on Saturday, the charity said the bombing occurred at approximately 3:30 p.m. local time, striking just 100 meters from the main entrance of Hope Camp 4, a site it operates for displaced civilians.

The organization said the victims included a displaced resident, a relative of a woman living in the camp, and a member of the family that made the land available for use as a displacement site.

“This was not just an attack on civilians, it was an attack on humanitarian infrastructure,” Action For Humanity said.

“Striking areas where displaced families are seeking safety is a blatant violation of international humanitarian law and must be condemned in the strongest possible terms.”

No further casualties or damage were reported among the camp’s other residents, but the group warned of the “deep and lasting” psychological toll on the community.

Action For Humanity said it continues to provide support to those affected and called for the protection of humanitarian sites and safe, unhindered access for aid delivery.

“Our operations in Gaza remain active,” the statement added. “We urgently call for the protection of all humanitarian sites and for immediate, unhindered access to deliver life-saving aid to those in desperate need.”