Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power

In this file photo taken on March 05, 2020 Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands at the end of a joint press statement following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow. (AFP)
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Updated 29 May 2023
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Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power

  • President has to navigate US push for Russia sanctions, NATO enlargement, say analysts
  • Energy, arms deals, immigration likely to be govt’s key focus

ANKARA: It is perhaps no secret in which direction Turkiye’s foreign policy will be moving with the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan winning another five-year term this past Sunday – which means a continuation of strategies the long-serving leader has championed in the past.

According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the US, Erdogan’s main priority would be to ensure the continued flow of much-needed cash from Russia and Gulf countries, while avoiding friction with Europe and the US so that he can attract investments from the West.

“While Turkiye’s relations with neither Europe nor the US can be expected to be put back on track, they can at least be stabilized as both Erdogan and his Western counterparts would benefit from this,” he told Arab News recently.

“The congratulatory messages from Europe and the United States suggest that this is also the tendency in the West.”

President Joe Biden congratulated Erdogan on his reelection, and tweeted: “I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.”

For Unluhisarcikli, Erdogan will also need to make tough decisions early on in his third term as president.

“The US, which has shown restraint so far due to the elections in Turkiye will press its points on Russia sanctions and NATO enlargement more strongly in the period ahead. Erdogan’s decisions on these issues and developments in the US about Turkiye’s request to purchase new F-16s could pivot the Turkiye-US relationship in any direction,” he said.

The administration of Donald Trump removed Turkiye from the F-35 fifth-generation jet program in 2019 over its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system.

Experts also underline that with Erdogan winning, Turkiye will continue its recent efforts to repatriate hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees to zones under Turkish control in compliance with international law.

Although being met with suspicion by Washington, the normalization efforts with Syria’s President Bashar Assad are also expected to continue as Erdogan, and his new ultranationalist and anti-immigrant allies in the parliament, consider the restored ties with Syria as the only solution to send back Syrian refugees in Turkiye to their homeland.

Erdogan’s new ally, Sinan Ogan, who ran as the third presidential candidate in the first elections, then endorsed Erdogan’s candidacy in the runoff, said during his campaign that he would consider repatriating refugees by force if necessary.  

Karol Wasilewski, an analyst for 4CF The Futures Literacy Company and a founder of Krakow-based Institute for Turkiye Studies, expects continuity in Turkish diplomacy and decision-making in the short run, on the economy and foreign policy.

“Erdogan would, most likely, continue his ambiguous foreign policy in which Turkiye, on the one hand, gives its Western allies arguments that it still can be considered an ally — that’s why I won’t be surprised if Erdogan finally agrees on Sweden’s membership — while, on the other, decisively pushes for its interests, even when it harms NATO internal cohesion,” he told Arab News.

Following the support he received in Sunday’s elections, and having regained flexibility for his political and diplomatic maneuvers, Erdogan is also expected to make some U-turns without risking any major backlash from his constituency.

While Sweden’s accession bid has yet to be approved by Ankara, Stockholm’s membership — which has long been rejected by Erdogan, who accused the country of harboring terrorists — may also be used as a trump card for securing a commitment from the US for F-16 fighter jets ahead of NATO’s next summit this July when Erdogan and Biden are expected to meet.

The admission of Sweden by Turkiye would help the US administration in pushing for F-16 sales through Congress.

But Erdogan’s uneasiness with the US support for Syrian Kurdish militia — People’s Protection Units or YPG — is unlikely to change under his third term as his government considers the YPG as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party in Turkiye.

On Friday, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said that after the elections, “whoever pursues a pro-American policy in Turkiye will be labeled a traitor,” hinting at a possible transactional relationship with Washington in the post-elections period.

For Wasilewski, Erdogan’s win may serve as another chance for Euro-Asianist segments in Turkiye to strengthen themselves in the security apparatus.

“In (a) five-year perspective, this may be something that would cast (an) even bigger shadow over Turkiye’s relationship with the West,” he said.

Another dimension of the post-election process would be the Western allies’ position toward Turkiye now that the election dust has settled.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the US decided to increase pressure on Turkiye on areas that seems vital to their interests, such as sanctions on Russia,” he said.

“The way that Erdogan responds to this possible pressure will be one (other) factor determining Turkiye’s relations with the West,” he added.

In terms of Turkish-Russian relations, Ankara is expected to continue its current political and economic relations with the Kremlin as well as deepen its cooperation in the energy field, with the help of the personal rapport between the two leaders.

Close ties with Russia as well as the Gulf will also help Erdogan in achieving his goal of rendering the Turkish economy more independent from Western markets. Ankara has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, but continues to provide military support to Kyiv.

Turkiye’s $20 billion first nuclear power plant, that will be owned for the first 25 years by the manufacturer, Russian energy company Rosatom, was recently inaugurated in a virtual ceremony. And being the largest nuclear construction project in the world, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said the plant deepened Turkish-Russian ties.

Russia also delayed a portion of Turkiye’s natural gas payments in early May ahead of the general elections.

Attracting high numbers of tourists from Russia are also required to help the Turkish economy keep afloat during summertime, while Erdogan will also remain in campaign mode before Turkiye’s next polls, the municipal elections scheduled for March next year.

“Putin is well aware that close ties between Russia and Turkiye are vital to his interests, especially after Russian aggression on Ukraine, and will continue to put a great effort to preserve them in a good shape,” said Wasilewski.

“Feeding Turkiye’s dreams of being the gas hub serves Erdogan’s narrative of Turkiye as a great power,” said Wasilewski.

 


Syrian, UAE presidents hold talks in Abu Dhabi

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Syrian, UAE presidents hold talks in Abu Dhabi

  • President Ahmed Al-Sharaa makes second trip to Gulf after visiting Saudi Arabia in February
  • UAE leader reaffirms support for Syrian rebuild efforts

LONDON: President Ahmed Al-Sharaa of the Syrian Arab Republic arrived in Abu Dhabi on Sunday for talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.

The sheikh wished Al-Sharaa success in leading Syria and in fulfilling his people’s hopes for development, security and stability, the Emirates News Agency reported.

He also reaffirmed the UAE’s support for Syria’s efforts to rebuild and commitment to its unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity, which he said were essential to the broader region.

Al-Sharaa was welcomed at Al-Bateen Airport by Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and other senior officials. Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani, who visited the UAE earlier this year, was also present at the meeting.

Al-Sharaa visited Saudi Arabia in February on his first foreign trip since assuming the presidency in January. The Syrian leader is keen to strengthen ties with Arab and Western governments and turn a new page in his nation’s diplomatic relations following the collapse of the Assad regime in December.

Last week, Syria and South Korea formally established diplomatic relations and agreed to open embassies in each other’s countries. Syria was the only UN member without diplomatic ties to South Korea.


Israeli military says missile fired from Yemen

Palestinian children hold their feet on a missile fragment after a Houthi missile launch toward Israel, near Hebron.
Updated 4 sec ago
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Israeli military says missile fired from Yemen

  • “Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in several areas in Israel… it has been determined that one missile was launched from Yemen,” Israeli military said

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said a missile was launched from Yemen on Sunday and was likely intercepted, shortly before the Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack.
“Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in several areas in Israel, after review, it has been determined that one missile was launched from Yemen,” the military said.
“Interception attempts were carried out, and the missile was likely successfully intercepted,” it added.
AFP journalists in Jerusalem heard the sirens, which were followed by muffled blasts.
In a separate statement issued in Hebrew, the military had said that “apparently, two missiles were launched from Yemen.”
Israeli police said sirens were also activated in Tel Aviv.
Yemen’s Houthis later claimed responsibility for missile fire at Israel.
In a statement, the group said it had carried out a “military operation with two ballistic missiles... targeting the Sdot Micha base in the area east of occupied Ashdod, and the other... targeting Ben Gurion Airport.”
The Iran-backed group has regularly fired missiles and drones on Israel since the war in Gaza broke out in October 2023 following an attack on Israel by Hamas militants.
The Houthis, who have also targeted shipping vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, say they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.


Armed faction in southern Syria to integrate into government forces

Updated 19 min 46 sec ago
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Armed faction in southern Syria to integrate into government forces

DAMASCUS: A powerful armed faction in southern Syrian Arab Republic led by defected military officer Ahmed Al-Awdeh announced on Sunday that it was dissolving itself and integrating into the government’s armed forces.

The Eighth Brigade, the most prominent armed faction in southern Syria, announced its dissolution and placed its weapons and personnel at the disposal of the Syrian Defense Ministry, according to a statement read by the official spokesman on Sunday in a video recording.

“We, members, soldiers and officers of what was previously known as the Eighth Brigade, officially announce the dissolution of this formation and handing over all its military and human capacities to the Defense Ministry,” said Col. Mohamed Al-Hourani.

“This decision stems from our commitment to national unity and enhancing security and stability and adherence to state sovereignty,” said Hourani.

The Eighth Brigade is part of the Southern Operations Room, a coalition of armed groups, also led by Awdeh, from the southern province of Daraa formed on Dec. 6 to help topple Bashar Assad.

Assad was toppled two days later following a lightning offensive by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS.

Ahmad Al-Sharaa, who led HTS, has since been named Syria’s interim president and appointed a cabinet last month.

The SOR was notably absent from a Dec. 25 meeting during which other militant factions agreed to disband and join a future army.

Awdeh’s forces, including the Eighth Brigade, held on to their weapons and maintained their presence on the ground.

Sunday’s announcement comes after two days of unrest between the forces of the Eighth Brigade and those of the new authorities.


Israel PM says Macron ‘gravely mistaken’ in promoting Palestinian state

France’s President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech in front of humanitarian aid destined to Gaza.
Updated 15 min 15 sec ago
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Israel PM says Macron ‘gravely mistaken’ in promoting Palestinian state

  • “President Macron is gravely mistaken in continuing to promote the idea of a Palestinian state in the heart of our land,” Netanyahu said

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday lashed out at French President Emmanuel Macron over his plans to recognize a Palestinian state.
“President Macron is gravely mistaken in continuing to promote the idea of a Palestinian state in the heart of our land — a state whose sole aspiration is the destruction of Israel,” Netanyahu said in a statement.
He was addressing Macron’s remarks earlier this week in which he said that France could recognize a Palestinian state within months.
“To this day, not a single figure in Hamas or the Palestinian Authority has condemned the horrors of the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust,” Netanyahu said, referring to the October 7, 2023 attack led by Hamas on Israel.
He described this as “a silence that reveals their true attitude toward the Jewish state.
“We will not endanger our existence over illusions detached from reality, and we will not accept moral lectures about establishing a Palestinian state that would threaten Israel’s survival — especially not from those who oppose granting independence to Corsica, New Caledonia, French Guiana, and other territories, whose independence would pose no threat to France whatsoever.”
His remarks echoed those of his son Yair, who struck out at Macron in an earlier post on X.
“Screw you!” Yair Netanyahu wrote in English late on Saturday.
“Yes to independence of New Caledonia! Yes to independence to French Polynesia! Yes to independence of Corsica! Yes to independence of the Basque Country! Yes to independence of French Guinea!” he added, apparently confusing it with French Guiana.
Macron, in an interview to France 5 broadcast on Wednesday, stated that France could take the step during a UN conference in New York in June, saying he hoped this would trigger a reciprocal recognition of Israel by Arab countries.
“We must move toward recognition, and we will do so in the coming months,” Macron said.
“I will do it because I believe that at some point it will be right and because I also want to participate in a collective dynamic, which must also allow all those who defend Palestine to recognize Israel in turn, which many of them do not do.”
His remarks sparked a wave of criticism from right-wing groups in France, after which Macron appeared to clarify his initial remarks on Friday.
“I support the legitimate right of Palestinians to a state and to peace, just as I support the right of Israelis to live in peace and security, both recognized by their neighbors,” he said on X.
“I am doing everything I can with our partners to reach this goal of peace. We truly need it,” he said.
Relations between Israel and France have deteriorated in recent months.
France has long championed a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including after the October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas on Israel.
But formal recognition by Paris of a Palestinian state would mark a major policy switch and risk antagonizing Israel, which insists such moves by foreign states are premature.
France would be the most significant European power to recognize a Palestinian state, a move the United States has also long resisted. Hamas welcomed Macron’s statement.
Nearly 150 countries recognize a Palestinian state.
Last May, Ireland, Norway and Spain announced recognition, followed by Slovenia in June, moves partly fueled by condemnation of Israel’s bombing of Gaza that followed the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel.


Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

Updated 4 min 25 sec ago
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Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

  • London-based Syria analyst Ghassan Ibrahim expresses cautious optimism about country’s post-Assad future, including relations with Israel
  • Calls for lifting of sanctions which are “hurting ordinary people,” unpacks Al-Sharaa government’s evolving ties with Turkiye, Russia and Iran

RIYADH: As Syria navigates a precarious path away from the decades-long rule of the Assad dynasty, Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria analyst, says cautious optimism defines the moment.

Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs show that dives deep into regional developments with leading policymakers and analysts, Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa.

“Yes, I’m optimistic, but cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The situation in Syria is not that easy. President Bashar Assad, when he left, literally made sure that all the institutions in Syria were not functioning. He stayed in power until the last day. And after that, when he left, literally, he left the country on its knees.”

Four months into a new political chapter, Syria’s fledgling government faces enormous hurdles: institutional collapse, brain drain, poverty, insecurity and a sanctions regime that continues to paralyze the economy.

“There is big hope,” Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen, “but the question is: Where will they bring all these resources from, to make them function as in any other government around the world?”

The economic picture is bleak. Over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and basic infrastructure has either collapsed or is running at a fraction of capacity. Ibrahim said the country’s rich natural resources — oil, gas, and minerals — remain largely idle. And a mass exodus of skilled professionals and entrepreneurs over the last 14 years has left a human capital vacuum.

“Literally, there is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones, especially the investors, and as well, the people who can participate in the new reform,” he said.

All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development —a Syria open for normalization with every normal country, including Israel, London-based analyst Ghassan Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN Photo)

Yet Ibrahim insists that the absence of large-scale sectarian violence after Assad’s fall is in itself a major achievement. “No one was thinking that Syria will end up after Assad leaves without a huge sectarian war,” he said.

Though there have been some flare-ups — most notably a wave of killings in the western coastal region in early March — Ibrahim said the response has so far avoided mass escalation.

“If we look at the full picture, it’s something promising, but requires a lot of work,” he added.

President Al-Sharaa’s first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, and soon to the UAE, are not just symbolic, says Ibrahim — they are strategic.

“He tried to relocate Syria within a new alliance — an alliance of modernity, stability and open-minded policies,” he said, noting the president’s praise for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Al-Sharaa’s upcoming visit to the UAE, he added, could prove essential in Syria’s reintegration with the region. “Syria needs now friends and brothers to help them, to lead, to guide them,” said Ibrahim. “The UAE is able through its wide network internationally to open the door, to reintroduce the new Syria to the world.”

He also said the visits send a reassuring message that Syria does not wish to destabilize the region. “Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers,” he added.

On the horizon is a visit to Turkiye, a former adversary now positioned as a “typical friend,” in Ibrahim’s words. But the relationship is more complicated. While ties with Ankara could help stabilize Syria’s north and resolve Kurdish tensions, Ibrahim warned that Turkish involvement risks aggravating fears in Israel and reintroducing regional rivalries into Syrian soil.

“We’ve noticed the involvement of Turkiye has caused two troubles somehow: With the Kurdish internally and with Israel,” he said.

The prospect of renewed conflict with Israel looms large. Southern Syria has seen a spike in Israeli airstrikes targeting what it says are weapons depots and military infrastructure. But Ibrahim said the new Syrian leadership is avoiding provocation.

“They are trying to, well, calculate the risk. They don’t want to behave like a militia. They want to be a state,” he said. “We’d rather leave some — there is some, I think, second-track diplomacy open now between Syria and Israel.”

According to Ibrahim, there is growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship. “Israel, in the end of the day, will understand it’s not to their advantage to partition the country,” he added.

Ahmed Al-Sharaa attends an interview with Reuters at the presidential palace in Damascus in March. (Reuters/File Photo)

Iran, by contrast, remains a destabilizing force, he warned. “They invested the most in this war and they lost the biggest loss in this war. So, they won’t leave Syria to be a stable state without working on destabilizing it,” Ibrahim said.

He accused Tehran of supporting militias in Syria’s coastal regions and pushing for partition along sectarian lines, but added that its influence is waning. “They did not leave any good legacy behind them in Syria to let the Syrians feel they are welcome,” he said.

As Damascus distances itself from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ibrahim said the new government is signaling that it wants a reset. “Why don’t they stop exporting their revolution? Then the Syrians may consider normalization with Iran,” he added.

But without the lifting of US and European sanctions, Syria’s future remains hostage to its past.

“The sanctions at this moment are out of context,” said Ibrahim. While once meant to isolate the Assad regime, they now, in his view, cripple the new administration’s ability to govern.

“So, the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people,” he said. “If the West wants to see Syria a normal state running in a normal manner without showing any kind of hostility, they have to help. And the way to help is literally lift the sanctions.”

He said that unless sanctions are lifted, growing popular frustration may spark unrest. “If they don’t see improvements soon, they will go to the streets and we will end up with another crisis this year,” he said.

The killings in Latakia and Tartous — reportedly sparked by loyalists of the former regime — exposed how fragile the situation remains.

“It was unjustified, it was some kind of war crime, it was not acceptable,” Ibrahim said. He defended President Al-Sharaa’s early policy of clemency toward Assad loyalists, but acknowledged that it may have inadvertently fueled revenge killings.

“There was an intention that if all Syrians want to close that chapter, they don’t want to go back to that moment of sectarian war,” he said. But the strategy also allowed hostile elements to regroup.

Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. (AN Photo)

Even the composition of the new cabinet has drawn criticism, with some ethnic and religious minorities saying they were not consulted. Ibrahim said President Al-Sharaa is trying to walk a tightrope.

“Is it wrong to choose loyalists from different backgrounds as much as possible? Probably, this is not the ideal transitional government,” he said. “He wants a kind of unity in his government.”

Asked about reports that Turkiye is negotiating a defense pact that would place air defense systems in Syria, Ibrahim said Damascus has voiced its concerns directly.

“The Syrians don’t want to let their country be in a box — like a mailbox, with both sides sending messages through the Syrians,” he said.

According to Ibrahim, Syria is attempting to broker peace between Turkiye and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. A deal may even be in the works, potentially sponsored by the US.

“He does not want to enter in a proxy war on behalf of Turkiye to fight with the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Ibrahim said of Al-Sharaa. “And we may hear in the coming months some kind of like de-escalation agreement.”

While Syria seeks Western engagement, it is not abandoning ties with Moscow. Ibrahim called Russia a pragmatic partner that has kept channels open to both the former regime and the opposition.

“Probably, Russia may play a very vital role in striking a deal with Israel because the Russians have good relations with the Israelis,” he added.

Finally, Ibrahim addressed remarks by a former provincial governor in Syria to a Wall Street Journal reporter, warning that continued Israeli aggression could attract “holy warriors” from around the world.

“It’s probably the message was taken out of its context,” Ibrahim said. “There is a clear message from Damascus to around the world: Syria will not be a hub to attack any country, including Israel.”

Ibrahim pointed to Al-Sharaa’s use of the term “Israeli state” — a break from the Assad-era lexicon — as a sign of a new posture. “The Syrians look at normalization with Israel as an advantage for Syria and advantage for everyone,” he said.

Looking to the future, Ibrahim said: “All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development — free trade, a Syria open for normalization with every normal country or normal state around the world, including Israel.”