Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power

In this file photo taken on March 05, 2020 Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands at the end of a joint press statement following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow. (AFP)
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Updated 29 May 2023
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Turkiye’s foreign policy under scrutiny as Erdogan takes power

  • President has to navigate US push for Russia sanctions, NATO enlargement, say analysts
  • Energy, arms deals, immigration likely to be govt’s key focus

ANKARA: It is perhaps no secret in which direction Turkiye’s foreign policy will be moving with the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan winning another five-year term this past Sunday – which means a continuation of strategies the long-serving leader has championed in the past.

According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund of the US, Erdogan’s main priority would be to ensure the continued flow of much-needed cash from Russia and Gulf countries, while avoiding friction with Europe and the US so that he can attract investments from the West.

“While Turkiye’s relations with neither Europe nor the US can be expected to be put back on track, they can at least be stabilized as both Erdogan and his Western counterparts would benefit from this,” he told Arab News recently.

“The congratulatory messages from Europe and the United States suggest that this is also the tendency in the West.”

President Joe Biden congratulated Erdogan on his reelection, and tweeted: “I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.”

For Unluhisarcikli, Erdogan will also need to make tough decisions early on in his third term as president.

“The US, which has shown restraint so far due to the elections in Turkiye will press its points on Russia sanctions and NATO enlargement more strongly in the period ahead. Erdogan’s decisions on these issues and developments in the US about Turkiye’s request to purchase new F-16s could pivot the Turkiye-US relationship in any direction,” he said.

The administration of Donald Trump removed Turkiye from the F-35 fifth-generation jet program in 2019 over its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system.

Experts also underline that with Erdogan winning, Turkiye will continue its recent efforts to repatriate hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees to zones under Turkish control in compliance with international law.

Although being met with suspicion by Washington, the normalization efforts with Syria’s President Bashar Assad are also expected to continue as Erdogan, and his new ultranationalist and anti-immigrant allies in the parliament, consider the restored ties with Syria as the only solution to send back Syrian refugees in Turkiye to their homeland.

Erdogan’s new ally, Sinan Ogan, who ran as the third presidential candidate in the first elections, then endorsed Erdogan’s candidacy in the runoff, said during his campaign that he would consider repatriating refugees by force if necessary.  

Karol Wasilewski, an analyst for 4CF The Futures Literacy Company and a founder of Krakow-based Institute for Turkiye Studies, expects continuity in Turkish diplomacy and decision-making in the short run, on the economy and foreign policy.

“Erdogan would, most likely, continue his ambiguous foreign policy in which Turkiye, on the one hand, gives its Western allies arguments that it still can be considered an ally — that’s why I won’t be surprised if Erdogan finally agrees on Sweden’s membership — while, on the other, decisively pushes for its interests, even when it harms NATO internal cohesion,” he told Arab News.

Following the support he received in Sunday’s elections, and having regained flexibility for his political and diplomatic maneuvers, Erdogan is also expected to make some U-turns without risking any major backlash from his constituency.

While Sweden’s accession bid has yet to be approved by Ankara, Stockholm’s membership — which has long been rejected by Erdogan, who accused the country of harboring terrorists — may also be used as a trump card for securing a commitment from the US for F-16 fighter jets ahead of NATO’s next summit this July when Erdogan and Biden are expected to meet.

The admission of Sweden by Turkiye would help the US administration in pushing for F-16 sales through Congress.

But Erdogan’s uneasiness with the US support for Syrian Kurdish militia — People’s Protection Units or YPG — is unlikely to change under his third term as his government considers the YPG as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party in Turkiye.

On Friday, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said that after the elections, “whoever pursues a pro-American policy in Turkiye will be labeled a traitor,” hinting at a possible transactional relationship with Washington in the post-elections period.

For Wasilewski, Erdogan’s win may serve as another chance for Euro-Asianist segments in Turkiye to strengthen themselves in the security apparatus.

“In (a) five-year perspective, this may be something that would cast (an) even bigger shadow over Turkiye’s relationship with the West,” he said.

Another dimension of the post-election process would be the Western allies’ position toward Turkiye now that the election dust has settled.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the US decided to increase pressure on Turkiye on areas that seems vital to their interests, such as sanctions on Russia,” he said.

“The way that Erdogan responds to this possible pressure will be one (other) factor determining Turkiye’s relations with the West,” he added.

In terms of Turkish-Russian relations, Ankara is expected to continue its current political and economic relations with the Kremlin as well as deepen its cooperation in the energy field, with the help of the personal rapport between the two leaders.

Close ties with Russia as well as the Gulf will also help Erdogan in achieving his goal of rendering the Turkish economy more independent from Western markets. Ankara has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, but continues to provide military support to Kyiv.

Turkiye’s $20 billion first nuclear power plant, that will be owned for the first 25 years by the manufacturer, Russian energy company Rosatom, was recently inaugurated in a virtual ceremony. And being the largest nuclear construction project in the world, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said the plant deepened Turkish-Russian ties.

Russia also delayed a portion of Turkiye’s natural gas payments in early May ahead of the general elections.

Attracting high numbers of tourists from Russia are also required to help the Turkish economy keep afloat during summertime, while Erdogan will also remain in campaign mode before Turkiye’s next polls, the municipal elections scheduled for March next year.

“Putin is well aware that close ties between Russia and Turkiye are vital to his interests, especially after Russian aggression on Ukraine, and will continue to put a great effort to preserve them in a good shape,” said Wasilewski.

“Feeding Turkiye’s dreams of being the gas hub serves Erdogan’s narrative of Turkiye as a great power,” said Wasilewski.

 


Amnesty urges war crimes probe into Israeli destruction in Lebanon

Updated 5 sec ago
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Amnesty urges war crimes probe into Israeli destruction in Lebanon

  • The rights group’s Erika Guevara Rosas said in the statement that the destruction had “rendered entire areas uninhabitable and ruined countless lives”

BEIRUT, Lebanon: Amnesty International said Tuesday that the Israeli army’s extensive destruction of civilian property in south Lebanon, including after a ceasefire with Hezbollah was struck, should be investigated as a war crime.
The November 27 truce largely ended more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah that culminated in two months of open war during which Israel sent in ground troops and conducted a major bombing campaign.
“The Israeli military’s extensive and deliberate destruction of civilian property and agricultural land across southern Lebanon must be investigated as war crimes,” Amnesty said in a statement.
The rights group’s Erika Guevara Rosas said in the statement that the destruction had “rendered entire areas uninhabitable and ruined countless lives.”
Israel has said its military action targeted Hezbollah sites and operatives, and it continues to strike Lebanon despite the ceasefire.
Under the truce, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back from near the border, with the Lebanese army deploying to the south and dismantling the militant group’s infrastructure there.
Israel was to fully withdraw its troops from Lebanon, but it has kept them in several border areas it deems strategic.
Amnesty said it sent Israeli authorities questions in late June about the destruction but had not received a response.
The group said its analysis covered from October 1 of last year — around the start of Israel’s ground offensive — until late January of this year, and showed “more than 10,000 structures were heavily damaged or destroyed during that time.”
It noted that “much of the destruction took place after November 27,” when the truce took effect.
“Israeli forces used manually laid explosives and bulldozers to devastate civilian structures, including homes, mosques, cemeteries, roads, parks and soccer pitches, across 24 municipalities,” it said.
The rights group said it used verified videos, photographs and satellite imagery to investigate the destruction.
“In some videos, soldiers filmed themselves celebrating the destruction by singing and cheering,” it said.
It added much of the destruction was done “in apparent absence of imperative military necessity and in violation” of international humanitarian law.
Amnesty noted that “the previous use of a civilian building by a party to the conflict does not automatically render it a military objective.”
In March, the World Bank put the war’s total economic cost on Lebanon at $14 billion, including $6.8 billion in damage to physical structures.
Authorities in cash-strapped Lebanon have yet to launch reconstruction efforts, and are hoping for international support, particularly from Gulf countries.
 

 


Tunisia rights groups denounce closure of freedom of information agency

Updated 25 August 2025
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Tunisia rights groups denounce closure of freedom of information agency

  • The journalists union described the measure as “the demolition of one of the fundamental pillars” of Tunisia’s fragile democracy

TUNIS: Tunisian rights groups on Monday condemned the dissolution of an authority that sought to guarantee access to information for citizens and journalists.
The groups denounced as a setback for freedoms the closure of the National Authority for Access to Information (INAI), an independent body established in 2016 in the aftermath of the Arab Spring uprising of 2011, aiming to safeguard rights to access information.
The government told AFP it had shut down the agency earlier this month and reassigned its staff to other government roles.
The National Syndicate of Tunisian Journalists (SNJT) said the move was made “in secret” with no major public announcement, criticizing the government’s tighter restrictions on information.
“Access to information is increasingly locked now,” SNJT head Zied Dabbar told AFP.
“We cannot speak of press freedom if there is no access to information,” he added. “From now on, there will only be the official narrative, which will lead to propaganda.”
The journalists union described the measure as “the demolition of one of the fundamental pillars” of Tunisia’s fragile democracy.
President Kais Saied, elected in 2019, has ruled Tunisia by decree since a 2021 power grab, with local and international organizations decrying a decline in freedoms in the North African country.
Many of Saied’s critics are currently behind bars, including dozens of journalists and public figures who have been prosecuted under a 2022 law incriminating “spreading false news.”
“It has become clear that the authorities want to lock all sources of information,” said Romdhane Ben Amor, head of the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights. “This is a political choice to break with the constitutional bodies.”
“The space of rights and freedoms is more and more suffocated,” Ben Amor told AFP, warning that other institutions could also face closure.
 

 


Libya’s coast guard shoots at a vessel seeking to rescue migrants in distress, group says

Updated 25 August 2025
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Libya’s coast guard shoots at a vessel seeking to rescue migrants in distress, group says

  • The patrol boat used by the Libyan coast guard was a 2023 gift from Italy to Libya as part of the European Union’s support for border management program, SOS Mediterranee said

CAIRO: Libya’s coast guard fired upon a vessel belonging to a humanitarian group as it searched for a migrant boat in distress in the Mediterranean Sea, the nonprofit said on Monday.
The attack, which took place the day before, appeared to be one of the most violent involving a European rescue ship and the Libyan coast guard, which receives training, equipment and funding from the European Union.
SOS Mediterranee said the confrontation took place about 40 nautical miles north of the Libyan coast, and released details and images of the incident. No casualties were reported, although the group said the vessel sustained significant damage.
The nonprofit charters the Norwegian-flagged Ocean Viking in partnership with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
A spokesperson for the Libyan coast guard didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The patrol boat used by the Libyan coast guard was a 2023 gift from Italy to Libya as part of the European Union’s support for border management program, SOS Mediterranee said.
Before it was attacked, the Ocean Viking had rescued 87 people from two migrant boats, including many from war-torn Sudan.
While searching for a third migrant boat in distress, the Ocean Viking was approached by a Libyan patrol vessel in international waters, Angelo Selim, the search and rescue coordinator on board told The Associated Press. When they were very close, he said, they started shooting for 15 to 20 minutes.
“In the beginning, I didn’t understand the noise of the shots but when the first windows exploded on my head, we all got on the floor,” Selim recalled. He added that some of the shots appeared to come from automatic weapons.
Selim said he instructed the migrants and non-essential crew members to lock themselves inside the safety room while he and the captain remained on the bridge.
Eventually, he said, the shooting stopped but the threats continued. Selim recalled the Libyan coast guard warning the Ocean Viking in Arabic over the radio: “If you don’t leave the area we will come and kill you all.”
In video and photos of the incident released by SOS Mediterranee, two men can be seen pointing weapons at the boat and several rounds of gunshots are heard. Broken windows and damaged equipment are also seen.
“This incident was not only an outrageous and unacceptable act,” SOS Mediterranee said in a statement. “This is far from isolated: the Libyan Coast Guard has a long history of reckless behavior that endangers people at sea, flagrantly violates human rights and shows total disregard for international maritime law.”
SOS Mediterranee said it issued a mayday after it was fired upon and sought protection from an Italian navy ship nearby, but didn’t receive any answer.
Frontex, the European Union’s border protection agency that often spots boats in distress and shares coordinates with the competent maritime authorities, called the incident “deeply concerning” and urged “the proper authorities to investigate the events swiftly and thoroughly.”
“Frontex remains fully committed to saving lives at sea and acts in line with international maritime law at all times. No rescuer should ever be put in danger while carrying out life-saving work,” it added.
The Ocean Viking was on its way to Italy on Monday with 87 migrants it had rescued before the attack. The group had no news of the migrants at sea they were searching for when they came under fire.
A spokesperson for the Italian ministry of interior declined to comment on the incident while the Italian coast guard did not respond to a request for comment.
“We demand a full investigation into the events of yesterday afternoon and that those responsible for these life–threatening attacks be brought to justice,” said Soazic Dupuy, director of operations at SOS Mediterranee.

 


Iraq seeks to deport hundreds of detained women and children

The largest number of prisoners comes from Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Russia. (AFP)
Updated 25 August 2025
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Iraq seeks to deport hundreds of detained women and children

  • Around 625 foreigners and 60 of their children are held in prisons in Iraq, a judicial source said, most of them linked to Daesh

BAGHDAD: Iraq wants to return hundreds of foreign women and their children detained in the country, though two foreign diplomats told AFP on Monday the process would be a lengthy one.
The initiative would exclude women condemned to death, but encompass those affiliated with the Daesh group as well as those found guilty of common crimes, an Iraqi security official told AFP.
The largest number of prisoners comes from Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Russia, he said.
There are also two French women, including Djamila Boutoutaou, who was jailed for 20 years in 2018 for her links to Daesh.
The Iraqi authorities created a committee “charged with establishing a plan for the repatriation of foreign and Arab detainees, as well as their children,” Iraqi justice ministry spokesman Ahmed Laibi said on Saturday, according to state media.
“We have hundreds of women and children in our penitentiary establishments,” he said, adding that the committee was headed by the justice minister.
Deporting the women and children would also reduce prison overcrowding, Laibi said.
Prisons in Iraq are currently at 150 percent capacity, the ministry said in July.
Around 625 foreigners and 60 of their children are held in prisons in Iraq, a judicial source said, most of them linked to Daesh.
There are also thousands of Iraqis jailed for links to the group, often following hasty trials according to NGOs.
The jihadists were routed in 2017 in Iraq, having overrun much of the north and west of the country three years before.
The justice ministry brought together several foreign diplomats on Thursday to discuss the matter.
“I’m not sure this can happen very quickly,” one European diplomat told AFP, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Repatriations “will only be possible in the case of bilateral agreements between two countries,” they said.
An Arab diplomat said “such procedures cannot be completed quickly.”
“To accelerate the process with countries that don’t have (bilateral) agreements, Iraqi authorities have proposed using memorandums of understanding,” the diplomat said.
He added that this would allow the executive power to act without waiting for parliamentary ratification.

 


Can Lebanon prevent losing another generation to conflict and despair?

Updated 25 August 2025
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Can Lebanon prevent losing another generation to conflict and despair?

  • Years of turmoil, economic collapse and war have left Lebanon’s youth without hope, a UN-backed report warns
  • Analysts say the nation’s recovery depends on the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and reforms

LONDON: When Sabah thinks about Lebanon’s turmoil and what lies ahead, she finds herself filled with rage and despair. While much of the world carries on uninterrupted, the lives of tens of thousands of young men and women in the country remain in limbo.

“The world moves on while many here have been left with nothing but fragments of memory, and others have lost even that,” the 25-year-old organizational psychologist from Sidon, an ancient city on Lebanon’s Mediterranean coast, told Arab News.

“Hundreds of thousands here have been deprived of the most basic needs,” she added. “They can’t access essential resources, their homes have been destroyed, their memories erased, their past lives vanished.”

Her despair reflects a wider reality. Lebanon stands on the brink of losing an entire generation to conflict, poverty and social and economic disintegration. Years of political turmoil, weak governance and economic meltdown were compounded by the latest war between Israel and Hezbollah.

A UN-backed report released in July 2024 said the conflict left nearly half of Lebanon’s young workforce without jobs matching their skills and disrupted schooling for 500,000 students. Between September and late November, 69 percent of children were forced out of classrooms.

Building a future at home has become a distant dream, and many now see emigration as the only way forward.

The report also found that the war displaced 1.2 million people, damaged or destroyed 64,000 buildings, pushed unemployment to nearly 30 percent, and rolled back human development to 2010 levels.

Basic necessities are increasingly out of reach. The UN estimates that 1.6 million people will face acute food insecurity, while child malnutrition has reached critical levels in Baalbek Hermel and Bekaa, where more than half of children under the age of two live in severe food poverty.

“Lebanon is at a turning point,” Blerta Aliko, resident representative of the UN Development Programme in Lebanon, said in a statement. The country, she added, “continues to face a complex polycrisis, now further exacerbated by the repercussions of the latest war.”

For Lebanon’s youth, the impact has been crushing. Building a future at home has become a distant dream, and many now see emigration as the only way forward. A 2024 Arab Barometer survey found young and college-educated Lebanese increasingly inclined to leave their country.

“It is important to note that most of these ‘lost generation’ were fresh graduates seeking work and a decent life in their homeland,” Yeghia Tashjian, regional and international affairs cluster coordinator at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, told Arab News.

“Many left due to insecurity, financial crisis and the lack of policy action from the government. They felt hopeless and they had no other option.”

The country’s real GDP has shrunk by over 38 percent between 2019 and 2024, according to the World Bank.

This exodus is not new. In 2021, two years into Lebanon’s financial collapse, the Crisis Observatory at AUB warned the country had entered the third wave of mass emigration since the 1975-1990 civil war, triggered by worsening all-round conditions.

Lebanon’s 2019 financial collapse, which the World Bank described as one of the worst globally since the 1850s, was the culmination of decades of fiscal mismanagement, entrenched clientelism and a post-civil war economy. The crisis left the state weakened and society vulnerable to further shocks.

Then came the recent Israel-Hezbollah war, which erupted on Oct. 8, 2023, as a cross-border fire exchange between Israeli forces and the Lebanese militant group. Hezbollah had moved to back Palestinians as Israel launched a widescale bombing campaign in the Gaza Strip in retaliation for a deadly Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7 that year.

The conflict intensified in September 2024, when Israeli strikes killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior party leaders and commanders before its army began a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

By January, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said at least 4,285 people had been killed, 27 percent of them women and children.

On Nov. 27, a ceasefire agreement, though fragile, was reached. It called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River, Lebanese army deployment in the south, and an Israeli pullback within 60 days.

But Israel did not fully pull its troops by the deadline, citing Lebanon’s failure to fully enforce the agreement, particularly on Hezbollah’s arms and positions, CNN reported.

Lebanon has for decades struggled with severe electricity and water shortages, but the crises further deepened in 2024 and 2025.

The simmering tension has taken its toll on an already brittle society and economy. Poverty in Lebanon has more than tripled since 2012, and the country’s real GDP has shrunk by over 38 percent between 2019 and 2024, according to the World Bank.

Still, some analysts see a path forward. “Hope is fragile, but it’s powerful,” Fadi Nicholas Nassar, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News. “What will bring people back is showing them through real action that Lebanon’s experiment in democracy is worth fighting for.”

He added: “Lebanon’s government needs to show the people who left that this country is still worth coming back to as residents, not tourists. Worth their time, their dreams, their hopes.”

But rebuilding trust will not be easy. Nassar said persuading young Lebanese that they can build sustainable lives “without fear of conflict or collapse” is not easy “after everything Lebanon has been through.”

He drew a parallel to post-civil war recovery, when a generation invested in Lebanon’s promise — a promise now shattered for many.

A UN-backed report released in July 2024 said the conflict left nearly half of Lebanon’s young workforce without jobs matching their skills.

“After the civil war, an entire generation invested in the promise of Lebanon,” he said. “Now, the Lebanese are asked to believe again — to give what’s left of their youth, or the last hope of those who’ve spent a lifetime watching promises break.”

But can the people of Lebanon endure another disappointment, paid for in blood and sweat?

“Belief cannot survive another betrayal,” Nassar said. “If Lebanon is to rise, it must be worthy of the dreams entrusted to it. Lebanon, in the end, is nothing without the Lebanese.”

“People vote with their feet,” he added, “and the government hasn’t delivered the change people were waiting for.”

Tashjian of the Issam Fares Institute says the first steps should be small but practical. He explained that the government must take “micro-steps to address these issues by providing security, stability and economic reforms to attract investments and create employment opportunities, mainly in the private sector.”

INNUMBERS

• 1.6m People projected to face acute food insecurity in Lebanon.

• 500k Students whose education was disrupted by 2024 Israel-Hezbollah war.

• 25% Drop in private sector employment due to the conflict.

(Source: UNDP and ESCWA)

The government, he said, should start by addressing electricity and water shortages that have worsened amid mismanagement, drought and war. He argued that “without solving these problems, it will be difficult to attract investments and expect young Lebanese to fully return and bring their start-ups with them.”

Lebanon has for decades struggled with severe electricity and water shortages, but the crises further deepened in 2024 and 2025. On Aug. 17, 2024, the country’s last operational power plant shut down due to a lack of fuel, causing a nationwide blackout for 24 hours.

Tashjian also urged the creation of an online “National Skills Registry” to connect diaspora talent with jobs at home and new youth programs to encourage Lebanese abroad to return.

The country’s real GDP has shrunk by over 38 percent between 2019 and 2024, according to the World Bank.

“Third,” he added, “institutionalize relations between the diaspora and the Lebanese government by establishing ‘Lebanese Youth Councils’ to facilitate young Fulbright-style programs attracting the youth to visit Lebanon and seek new opportunities.”

The July 2024 UN-backed report underscored how vital such reforms are. Micro, small and medium enterprises, which account for 90 percent of Lebanon’s businesses, were especially hit hard.

Concentrated in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, firms suffered airstrikes, supply chain breakdowns and mass displacement of staff. The southern city of Nabatieh saw the worst destruction, with 31 percent of businesses damaged. Overall, 15 percent of MSMEs shut down permanently, while three-quarters suspended operations.

UNDP’s Aliko said the crisis demands “the urgent and accelerated implementation of essential reforms — particularly within public administration, as well as across socio-economic and financial sectors.”

Yet responsibility does not lie solely with Beirut, analysts say. Israel’s ongoing operations in southern and eastern Lebanon continue to undermine stability, complicating government efforts to assert control. Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah fighters, arms depots and command centers.

The US has urged Israel to scale back “non-urgent” strikes to give Lebanon space to begin disarming Hezbollah, Axios reported on Aug. 21.

David Wood, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Israel’s actions may be delaying progress. “Lebanon’s leaders can take serious steps toward securing the country’s future, while acknowledging that some challenges remain beyond their entire control,” he told Arab News.

“To address the ongoing conflict, the government can press ahead with implementing Lebanon’s obligations under the ceasefire agreement, including the disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state actors.”

In early August, the Lebanese government announced a timeline for Hezbollah’s disarmament, with the goal of having a state monopoly on weapons before the end of 2025. In response, Hezbollah said it would treat the decision “as if it doesn’t exist.”

“The government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam committed a grave sin by taking a decision to strip Lebanon of its weapons to resist the Israeli enemy,” the group said in a statement, warning that the decision “fully serves Israel’s interest.”

Wood cautioned that even if Lebanon fulfills its obligations, “it remains unclear if Israel will respect its own commitments under the deal.” He urged Washington to “help Lebanon by exerting diplomatic pressure on Israel to end its ongoing occupation in southern Lebanon and near-daily military operations.”

In remarks on Monday, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, welcomed the Lebanese cabinet’s “momentous decision,” saying that if Lebanon took the necessary steps to disarm Hezbollah, Israel would respond with reciprocal measures, including a phased reduction of its military presence in the country’s south.

The US has urged Israel to scale back “non-urgent” strikes to give Lebanon space to begin disarming Hezbollah.

Reforms would also unlock international aid, Wood said, but key legislation remains stalled — including a law dividing losses from the financial collapse.

“While the new leadership has made some progress on the reforms already, it still needs to usher in key legislation, including a law allocating losses from the collapse of Lebanon’s financial sector,” he said.

However, he added that “it could be difficult for the government to push through this controversial law, given the unresolved dispute over which parties should bear responsibility.”

Despite the obstacles, he added, Lebanon still has a window of opportunity. “The international community has shown interest in supporting the country’s post-war recovery,” Wood said.

“But if Lebanon’s leaders fail to seize this chance — which will not last forever — the Lebanese people could remain mired in the current, dire situation for a very long time.”