Frankly Speaking: Will President Trump be able to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine?

Frankly Speaking: Norman Roule 05
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Updated 25 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Will President Trump be able to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine?

  • Middle East expert Norman Roule says Trump team members will be no different from Biden officials despite their pro-Israel rhetoric
  • Lauds clear position of Kingdom’s foreign minister on two-state solution, says Lebanon war has a simple solution with a difficult approach

DUBAI: After voting for Donald Trump in anger at the Biden administration’s perceived inaction on the Gaza war, many Arab Americans are now voicing concern as the victorious Republican candidate prepares to return to the White House with top team nominees vocal in their support for Israel.

Former senior US intelligence officer Norman Roule, however, says the incoming Trump administration’s policy in this regard will be largely similar to that of President Joe Biden’s. 

“It is certainly true that many of the Trump senior designees are openly pro-Israel, but their rhetoric as to what they would do to support Israel is no different than the Biden administration itself,” he said on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking.” 

He believes one positive thing to look forward to is that Trump would avoid embroiling the US, Israel, or the region in an endless conflict in the Gaza Strip.

“If there is a difference between the Biden approach and the Trump approach,” he said, “the Trump approach might be more of, to the Israeli government: Do what you feel is necessary, but do it efficiently, humanely, and quickly, we’re not looking to support Israel for an endless war there itself.”




The incoming Trump administration’s policy regarding the Gaza will be largely similar to that of President Joe Biden’s, former senior US intelligence officer Norman Roule tells Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

Roule stressed that America must end the war and facilitate aid access for the Palestinians in Gaza, who have suffered for over a year from a deepening humanitarian crisis, while at the same time ensuring Israel’s security from Hamas militants. 

“First, we must provide humanitarian relief to the Palestinian people who have suffered tremendously, largely because of Hamas’ use of this population as human sacrifice, but we must bring in international aid and end the conflict,” he said.

“But at the same time, we must end the role of Hamas in threatening Israel. It’s not unfair that Israel seeks its security to prevent another repetition of Oct. 7.”

On that fateful day in 2023, Hamas-led Palestinian militants carried out a surprise attack on southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 240 others hostage. Israel retaliated by launching a widespread bombing campaign on Gaza, killing at least 44,000 Palestinians within 14 months, according to the local health authority.

Saudi Arabia has consistently condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has ruled out normalizing relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is established. 

Roule lauded the Saudi leadership’s consistency and clear stance on the Palestine issue.

“The Saudi foreign minister’s position has been consistent, it’s been clear, and it’s been directed to achieve what the entire Arab world seeks — a two-state solution that is fair to the Palestinian people, that allows security for Israel, and does not provide undue diplomatic recognition or other inducements to Israel before that diplomatic solution of the two-state relationship comes about,” he said. 

“So, I’m a big fan of Prince Faisal bin Farhan. His comments have been appropriate, and the comments of the Saudi leadership have also been quite clear,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.” 

Roule spent 34 years with the CIA covering the Middle East. For nine of those years, he was the national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.




Roule, a former senior US intelligence officer, believes Saudi-US relations will continue to thrive regardless of the administration in Washington and despite the temporary pause caused by the Gaza war. (AN photo)

 


Drawing on his background, he expressed skepticism about whether all parties would cooperate in reaching a two-state solution. “If that’s going to be difficult with the Israelis, you just have to imagine yourself right now: Is the president of the Palestinian Authority capable politically of bringing the Palestinians to a two-state solution? Will Hamas tolerate that?” he said.

“And, indeed, the question that we all should ask ourselves is, if two-state discussions began today, what would Hamas, the Palestine Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis say about that? Would they support those talks? Would they try to upend those talks?” 

According to Roule, the “great unanswered question” is what the international community is doing to ensure that, if a two-state diplomatic approach is reached, it will be protected from “the malign actions of Iran and its proxies.”

Asked if parts of the much-talked-about Saudi-US deal could still move forward despite the Kingdom’s stance on not normalizing relations with Israel without the two-state solution being achieved, he said the two countries “have a separate relationship that needs to progress at the same time.

“And it’s been doing quite well in recent months,” he said. “Both the Biden administration in its remaining time and the (incoming) Trump administration will seek to implement the parts of the deal that are not related to Israel.”

Despite the temporary pause in a comprehensive strategic agreement owing to the Gaza conflict, he sees collaboration continuing in areas like AI, green energy and regional stability. 

“We have a massive technological cooperation that’s ongoing, particularly in artificial intelligence,” Roule said. “The issue of data centers is coming to the forefront of the relationship, but also, as the Biden administration was working on its strategic agreement with the Saudi government, the sense in Washington is the movement of that deal was quite positive and was only upended by the Gaza conflict.” 

Roule expects to see continued progress on elements of that deal, which “provides Saudi Arabia and the US with what they need to maintain and build what is a very positive and critical relationship for the US and for the region.” 

Moving on to Lebanon, Roule said that to bring peace to the war-torn country, “there’s a simple solution with a difficult approach to get there.

“We need first to remove Lebanese Hezbollah north of the Litani (River) to empower the Lebanese armed forces to come south of the Litani and do their job — and be able to do so without fear of Lebanese Hezbollah,” he said.

Nevertheless, he stressed that the first priority is to “end the conflict” and “end the suffering of the Lebanese people, end the suffering of the Israeli people.”

Pointing to the fact that “60,000 Israelis have left their home and prior to the Lebanese recent conflict, 100,000 Lebanese were not going into their homes, and now we have a million displaced Lebanese,” Roule said: “We’ve got to make that our first priority.”

Achieving peace in Lebanon, according to Roule, hinges on one key factor: “The Lebanese people must be willing to stand up against Lebanese Hezbollah.”

Elaborating on the point, he said: “This isn’t something that we’re going to be able to do. And I’ll close by saying that one bit of diplomatic guidance that in the intelligence community we often give to diplomats is: We can’t want a solution more than the people on the ground.

“The Lebanese people must appoint a president, empower their armed forces, push back on Lebanese Hezbollah.”

He is sure that once the Lebanese decide on the political solution, the US “will assist them and support them and provide them with billions of dollars of aid.

“But, at a certain point, the political solution must be their own.”

Asked about the outlook for the war in Lebanon, especially after Israeli official Michael Freund told the Jerusalem Post that southern Lebanon is actually “northern Israel,” Roule said “harsh rhetoric” is “coming from all sides — Lebanese Hezbollah, elements of the Israeli government, and Palestinians themselves — on all of these issues.”

President-elect Trump pledged throughout his campaign to quickly end the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Roule believes that Trump, who opposes “endless wars,” will pursue this goal by surrounding himself with people who share his worldview. 




In this photo taken on October 7, 2024, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a remembrance event in Miami, Florida, to mark the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. (AFP/File photo)

“President Trump does see himself as a deal maker and he assigns to key positions around him individuals with the same worldview,” he said.

“So, you’re going to get individuals who are generally sympathetic toward Israel, confident of the strong US relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council states, willing to deter Iran, willing to do what it takes to keep the US out of regional conflicts, but willing also to push back on adversaries.”

While Trump does not want to see the US in a war in the Middle East or in Europe any more than President Biden, the two administrations’ approach to these issues in significantly different ways, according to Roule. 

“President Trump’s goal appears to be how do we bring some sort of agreement together that stops the killing and restores the diplomatic channels so that we can bring about peace in Europe,” he said.

He added that Trump’s goal in regard to Iran is “probably” similar.

“Iran needs to reduce its nuclear program, cease its regional adventurism, and act like a normal nation,” Roule said. “If Iran is willing to do this, as we’ve seen in the previous Trump administration, they will offer engagement. 

“But if not, in either of these cases, what you’re going to see is likely the Trump administration not unwilling to provide Ukraine with more weapons, because Russia won’t cooperate — and also to conduct significant pressure against Iran.”




US President-elect Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as they meet in Palm-Beach, Florida, on Nov. 22, 2024. Rutte held talks with US President-elect Donald Trump in Florida The duo talked about the "global security issues facing the alliance," a spokeswoman said. (NATO handout photo via AFP)

When asked whether Ukrainians and Europeans fear that Trump’s policies might prioritize Russia in a deal and pressure Kyiv, the EU, and NATO to accept it — much like the withdrawal from Afghanistan — Roule responded that the US approach would ultimately depend on whether the issue is deemed existential to its interests. 

“The Trump administration’s position is going to be: If this is an existential issue for Europe, then it must act accordingly. And there are some countries in Europe which still will not meet their NATO obligations,” he said.

“The Trump administration’s position is going to be, not unreasonably, if this is existential for us and we must participate accordingly, why isn’t it existential for you?”

Turning to Ukraine, Roule said this has been “a costly, bloody war” within the country. “They’ve lost many of their people to Russian aggression. This is a criminal invasion of another country,” he said.

“That said, if you’re interested in stopping the violence, at some point all wars come to a diplomatic solution. They may not be attractive, but that solution is needed.”
 

 


Israeli strikes across Gaza overnight kill at least 103 people, hospitals and medics say

Updated 16 sec ago
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Israeli strikes across Gaza overnight kill at least 103 people, hospitals and medics say

  • Israel has intensified its war in the territory that, after more than 19 months, shows no signs of abating
  • ore than 48 people were killed in airstrikes in and around the southern city of Khan Younis

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip killed at least 103 people overnight and into Sunday, hospitals and medics in the battered enclave said, as Israel intensifies its war in the territory that, after more than 19 months, shows no signs of abating.
More than 48 people were killed in airstrikes in and around the southern city of Khan Younis, some of which hit houses and tents sheltering displaced people, according to Nasser Hospital. Among the dead were 18 children and 13 women, hospital spokesperson Weam Fares said.
In northern Gaza, a strike on a home in the built-up Jabaliya refugee camp killed nine people from a single family, according to the Gaza health ministry's emergency services. Another strike on a family's residence, also in Jabaliya, killed 10, including seven children and a woman, according to the civil defense, which operates under the Hamas-run government.
The Israeli military had no immediate comment on the overnight strikes. Israel blames civilian casualties from its operations on Hamas because the militant group operates from civilian areas.
The bloodshed comes as Israel ramps up its war in Gaza with a new offensive named “Gideon's Chariots,” in which Israel says it plans to seize territory, displace hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to Gaza's south and take greater control over the distribution of aid.
 

Israel's new offensive
Israel says the new plan is meant to ramp up pressure on the militant Hamas group to agree to a temporary ceasefire on Israel's terms — one that would free Israeli hostages held in Gaza but wouldn't necessarily end the war. Hamas says it wants a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and a pathway to ending the war as part of any new ceasefire deal.
Israel had said it would wait until the end of US President Donald Trump's visit to the region before launching its new offensive, saying it was giving a chance for efforts to bring about a new ceasefire deal. And while teams are still negotiating a potential truce in the Qatari capital Doha, there appears to have been no breakthrough. Trump did not visit Israel on his trip, which wrapped up on Friday.
Israel shattered a previous 8-week ceasefire in mid-March, launching fierce airstrike that killed hundreds. Days before the end of that ceasefire, Israel also halted all imports into Gaza, including food, medicine and fuel, deepening a humanitarian crisis and sparking warnings of an increasing risk of famine in the territory — a blockade that continues.
Israel says that move is also meant to pressure Hamas.
The war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 251 others. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 53,000 Palestinians, many of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants.
 

Strikes pound Gaza
In northern Gaza, parts of which have been flattened by Israel's onslaught, at least 43 people were killed in multiple strikes, according to first responders from the health ministry and the civil defense. Gaza City's Shifa Hospital said among the dead, 15 were children and 12 were women.
In Jabaliya, a built-up refugee camp in northern Gaza, 10 people, including seven children and a woman were killed, according to the civil defense, which operates under the Hamas-run government. Among the dead were two parents and their three children and a father and his four children, it said.
In central Gaza, at least 12 people were killed in three separate strikes, hospitals said. One strike in the Zweida town killed seven people, including two children and four women, according to according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital in the town of Deir al-Balah. The second hit an apartment in Deir al-Balah, killing two parents and their child, the hospital said. In Nuseirat camp, a strike hit a house and killed two people, said the camp’s Awda hospital,
Nasser Hospital said it struggled to count the dead because of the condition the bodies were brought in.


Morocco unveils policies it hopes bolster the care and management of stray dogs

Updated 18 May 2025
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Morocco unveils policies it hopes bolster the care and management of stray dogs

EL AARJATE: A mutt with a blue tag clipped to her ear whimpers as she’s lifted from a cage and carried to a surgery table for a spay and a rabies vaccine, two critical steps before she’s released back onto the streets of Morocco’s capital.
The “Beldi,” as Moroccan street dogs are called, is among the hundreds taken from Rabat to a dog pound in a nearby forest. As part of an expanded “Trap, Neuter, Vaccinate and Return” program, dogs like her are examined, treated and ultimately released with tags that make clear they pose no danger.
“We have a problem: That’s stray dogs. So we have to solve it, but in a way that respects animals,” said Mohamed Roudani, the director of the Public Health and Green Spaces Department in Morocco’s Interior Ministry.
Trying to balance safety and animal well-being
Morocco adopted “Trap, Neuter, Vaccinate and Return,” or TVNR, in 2019. One facility has opened in Rabat and more are set to be launched in at least 14 other cities, aligning Morocco with recommendations from the World Organization for Animal Health. The government has spent roughly $23 million over the past five years on animal control centers and programs.
Roudani said Morocco’s updated approach balanced public safety, health and animal well-being. Local officials, he added, were eager to expand TVNR centers throughout the country.
Though population estimates are challenging, based on samples of marked and tagged stray dogs, Moroccan officials believe they number between 1.2 to 1.5 million. Some neighborhoods welcome and care for them collectively. However, others decry their presence as a scourge and note that more than 100,000 Moroccans have needed rabies vaccinations after attacks.
A draft law is in the works that would require owners to vaccinate pets and impose penalties for animal abuse.
Inside the center
On a visit organized for journalists to a TNVR center in El Aarjate, enclosures for dogs appear spacious and orderly, with clean floors and the scent of disinfectant. Food and water bowls are refreshed regularly by staff who move between spaces, offering gentle words and careful handling. Some staff members say they grow so attached to the dogs that they miss them when they’re released to make space to treat incoming strays.
Veterinarians and doctors working for the Association for the Protection of Animals and Nature care for between 400 and 500 stray dogs from Rabat and surrounding cities. Dogs that veterinarians deem unhealthy or aggressive are euthanized using sodium pentobarbital, while the rest are released, unable to spread disease or reproduce.
Youssef Lhor, a doctor and veterinarian, said that aggressive methods to cull dogs didn’t effectively make communities safer from rabies or aggression. He said it made more sense to to try to have people coexist with dogs safely, noting that more than 200 had been released after treatment from the Rabat-area center.
“Slaughtering dogs leads to nothing. This TNVR strategy is not a miracle solution, but it is an element that will add to everything else we’re doing,” he said, referring to “Treat, Neuter, Vaccinate, Return.”
It’s designed to gradually reduce the stray dog population while minimizing the need for euthanasia.
It’s a program that Morocco is eager to showcase after animal rights groups accused it of ramping up efforts to cull street dogs after being named co-host of the 2030 FIFA World Cup last year.
Animal rights groups protest
Animal rights groups routinely use large sporting events to draw attention to their cause and similarly targeted Russia in the lead-up to the 2018 FIFA World Cup there.
Citing unnamed sources and videos it said were shot in Morocco, the International Animal Welfare and Protection Coalition claimed in January that Morocco was exterminating 3 million dogs, particularly around cities where stadiums are being built. The allegations, reported widely by international media lacking a presence in Morocco, triggered anti-FIFA protests as far away as Ahmedabad, India.
“These dogs are being shot in the street, often in front of children, or dragged away with wire nooses to die slow, agonizing deaths,” Ian Ward, the coalition’s chairman, said in a statement.
Moroccan officials vehemently deny the claims, say they’re implementing the very programs that activists propose, including TNVR. They rebuff the idea that any policy is related to the World Cup. Still, critics see their efforts as publicity stunts and are skeptical such programs are as widespread as officials claim.
Instances of mistreatment and euthanasia by gunshot have been reported in local media but Moroccan officials say, despite international attention, they’re isolated incidents and don’t reflect on-the-ground reality nationwide.


US embassy in Tripoli denies report of planned relocation of Palestinians to Libya

Updated 18 May 2025
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US embassy in Tripoli denies report of planned relocation of Palestinians to Libya

  • Palestinians vehemently reject any plan involving them leaving Gaza

TRIPOLI: The US embassy in Libya denied on Sunday a report that the US government was working on a plan to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya.
On Thurdsay, NBC News said the Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate as many as one million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya.
NBC News cited five people with knowledge of the matter, including two people with direct knowledge and a former US official.
“The report of alleged plans to relocate Gazans to Libya is untrue,” the US embassy said on the X platform.
The Tripoli-based interionationally-recognized Government of National Unity was not available for immediate comment.
Trump has previously said he would like the United States to take over the Gaza Strip and its Palestinian population resettled elsewhere.
Palestinians vehemently reject any plan involving them leaving Gaza, comparing such ideas to the 1948 “Nakba,” or “catastrophe,” when hundreds of thousands were dispossessed of their homes in the war that led to the creation of Israel.
When Trump first floated his idea after taking the presidency, he said he wanted US allies Egypt and Jordan to take in people from Gaza. Both states rejected the idea, which drew global condemnation, with Palestinians, Arab nations and the UN saying it would amount to ethnic cleansing.
In April, Trump said Palestinians could be moved “around to different countries, and you have plenty of countries that will do that.”
During a visit to Qatar this week, Trump reiterated his desire to take over the territory, saying he wanted to see it become a “freedom zone” and that there was nothing left to save.
Trump has previously said he wants to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”


Libya’s PM says eliminating militias is ‘ongoing project’ as ceasefire holds

Updated 18 May 2025
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Libya’s PM says eliminating militias is ‘ongoing project’ as ceasefire holds

  • The United Nations Support Mission in Libya expressed concern on Friday about the escalation of violence in Tripoli, calling on parties to protect civilians and public property

TRIPOLI: Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dbeibah said on Saturday that eliminating militias is an “ongoing project,” as a ceasefire after deadly clashes this week remained in place.
“We will not spare anyone who continues to engage in corruption or extortion. Our goal is to create a Libya free of militias and corruption,” Dbeibah said in a televised speech.
Dbeibah is the country’s internationally recognized leader in the west, based in Tripoli.
After Dbeibah on Tuesday ordered the armed groups to be dismantled, Tripoli was rocked by its fiercest clashes in years between two armed groups. The clashes killed at least eight civilians, according to the United Nations.
The government announced a ceasefire on Wednesday.
It followed Monday’s killing of major militia chief Abdulghani Kikli, widely known as Ghaniwa, and the sudden defeat of his Stabilization Support Apparatus group by factions aligned with Dbeibah.
SSA is under the Presidential Council that came to power in 2021 with the Government of National Unity of Dbeibah through a United Nations-backed process.
SSA was based in the densely populated Abu Salim neighborhood.
GNU’s Interior Ministry said in a statement that nine decomposed corpses were found in a morgue refrigerator in Abu Salim-based Al-Khadra hospital. It said SSA never reported them to authorities. The PM’s media office posted a video of Dbeibah greeting the security force protecting the Prime Ministry Building. It said he later received delegations from elders to discuss Tripoli’s situation and what he called “successful security operation in Abu Salim.”
“The Prime Minister stressed that this operation falls within the state’s fixed vision to eliminate armed formations outside the police and army institutions,” the media office said.
On Friday, at least three ministers resigned in sympathy with hundreds of protesters who took to the streets calling for Dbeibah’s ouster.
Dbeibah did not comment on their resignations. “The protests are annoying, but I’ve put up with them. I know some of them are real, but a lot of them are paid,” he said.
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya expressed concern on Friday about the escalation of violence in Tripoli, calling on parties to protect civilians and public property.
Libya has had little stability since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising ousted longtime autocrat Muammar Qaddafi. The country split in 2014 between rival eastern and western factions, though an outbreak of major warfare paused with a truce in 2020.
While eastern Libya has been dominated for a decade by commander Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army, control in Tripoli and western Libya has been splintered among numerous armed factions.
A major energy exporter, Libya is also an important way station for migrants heading to Europe, while its conflict has drawn in foreign powers including Turkiye, Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
State-oil firm NOC said on Friday that its operations at oil facilities are proceeding as normal, with oil and gas exports operating regularly.


Israel says intercepted missile from Yemen, Houthis claim attack

Updated 18 May 2025
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Israel says intercepted missile from Yemen, Houthis claim attack

CAIRO: The Israeli military said Sunday it had intercepted a missile fired from Yemen, where the Iran-backed Houthis claimed launching two missiles at Israel’s main airport.
“A missile that was launched from Yemen was intercepted,” the Israeli military said in a statement, adding that air raid sirens had sounded in several areas of the country.
The Houthis later said they had fired “two ballistic missiles” toward Israel’s Ben Gurion airport, near Tel Aviv.
The Iran-backed militants have regularly fired missiles and drones at Israel since the war in Gaza broke out in October 2023, following an attack on Israel by the Houthis’ Palestinian ally Hamas.
Earlier this month, a Houthi missile struck the area of the Tel Aviv airport, gouging a hole near its main terminal building and wounding several people in a rare penetration of Israeli air defenses.
On Friday, Israel bombed the Houthi-held Red Sea ports of Hodeida and Salif following three missile attacks in as many days. It threatened to target the Houthi leadership if the attacks continued.
In response to the strike that landed near Ben Gurion, Israel has struck the airport in Yemen’s rebel-controlled capital Sanaa and three nearby power stations.
On Sunday, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group would continue targeting Israel until the “siege is lifted” on Gaza.
The Houthis, who control swathes of Yemen, have also targeted Red Sea shipping throughout the Gaza war, saying they act in solidarity with Palestinians.
Their attacks on the vital shipping route drew retaliatory strikes by the United States, which in early May sealed a ceasefire with the group that did not include Israel.