Frankly Speaking: Will President Trump be able to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine?

Frankly Speaking: Norman Roule 05
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Updated 25 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Will President Trump be able to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine?

  • Middle East expert Norman Roule says Trump team members will be no different from Biden officials despite their pro-Israel rhetoric
  • Lauds clear position of Kingdom’s foreign minister on two-state solution, says Lebanon war has a simple solution with a difficult approach

DUBAI: After voting for Donald Trump in anger at the Biden administration’s perceived inaction on the Gaza war, many Arab Americans are now voicing concern as the victorious Republican candidate prepares to return to the White House with top team nominees vocal in their support for Israel.

Former senior US intelligence officer Norman Roule, however, says the incoming Trump administration’s policy in this regard will be largely similar to that of President Joe Biden’s. 

“It is certainly true that many of the Trump senior designees are openly pro-Israel, but their rhetoric as to what they would do to support Israel is no different than the Biden administration itself,” he said on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking.” 

He believes one positive thing to look forward to is that Trump would avoid embroiling the US, Israel, or the region in an endless conflict in the Gaza Strip.

“If there is a difference between the Biden approach and the Trump approach,” he said, “the Trump approach might be more of, to the Israeli government: Do what you feel is necessary, but do it efficiently, humanely, and quickly, we’re not looking to support Israel for an endless war there itself.”




The incoming Trump administration’s policy regarding the Gaza will be largely similar to that of President Joe Biden’s, former senior US intelligence officer Norman Roule tells Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

Roule stressed that America must end the war and facilitate aid access for the Palestinians in Gaza, who have suffered for over a year from a deepening humanitarian crisis, while at the same time ensuring Israel’s security from Hamas militants. 

“First, we must provide humanitarian relief to the Palestinian people who have suffered tremendously, largely because of Hamas’ use of this population as human sacrifice, but we must bring in international aid and end the conflict,” he said.

“But at the same time, we must end the role of Hamas in threatening Israel. It’s not unfair that Israel seeks its security to prevent another repetition of Oct. 7.”

On that fateful day in 2023, Hamas-led Palestinian militants carried out a surprise attack on southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 240 others hostage. Israel retaliated by launching a widespread bombing campaign on Gaza, killing at least 44,000 Palestinians within 14 months, according to the local health authority.

Saudi Arabia has consistently condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has ruled out normalizing relations with Israel until a Palestinian state is established. 

Roule lauded the Saudi leadership’s consistency and clear stance on the Palestine issue.

“The Saudi foreign minister’s position has been consistent, it’s been clear, and it’s been directed to achieve what the entire Arab world seeks — a two-state solution that is fair to the Palestinian people, that allows security for Israel, and does not provide undue diplomatic recognition or other inducements to Israel before that diplomatic solution of the two-state relationship comes about,” he said. 

“So, I’m a big fan of Prince Faisal bin Farhan. His comments have been appropriate, and the comments of the Saudi leadership have also been quite clear,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.” 

Roule spent 34 years with the CIA covering the Middle East. For nine of those years, he was the national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.




Roule, a former senior US intelligence officer, believes Saudi-US relations will continue to thrive regardless of the administration in Washington and despite the temporary pause caused by the Gaza war. (AN photo)

 


Drawing on his background, he expressed skepticism about whether all parties would cooperate in reaching a two-state solution. “If that’s going to be difficult with the Israelis, you just have to imagine yourself right now: Is the president of the Palestinian Authority capable politically of bringing the Palestinians to a two-state solution? Will Hamas tolerate that?” he said.

“And, indeed, the question that we all should ask ourselves is, if two-state discussions began today, what would Hamas, the Palestine Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis say about that? Would they support those talks? Would they try to upend those talks?” 

According to Roule, the “great unanswered question” is what the international community is doing to ensure that, if a two-state diplomatic approach is reached, it will be protected from “the malign actions of Iran and its proxies.”

Asked if parts of the much-talked-about Saudi-US deal could still move forward despite the Kingdom’s stance on not normalizing relations with Israel without the two-state solution being achieved, he said the two countries “have a separate relationship that needs to progress at the same time.

“And it’s been doing quite well in recent months,” he said. “Both the Biden administration in its remaining time and the (incoming) Trump administration will seek to implement the parts of the deal that are not related to Israel.”

Despite the temporary pause in a comprehensive strategic agreement owing to the Gaza conflict, he sees collaboration continuing in areas like AI, green energy and regional stability. 

“We have a massive technological cooperation that’s ongoing, particularly in artificial intelligence,” Roule said. “The issue of data centers is coming to the forefront of the relationship, but also, as the Biden administration was working on its strategic agreement with the Saudi government, the sense in Washington is the movement of that deal was quite positive and was only upended by the Gaza conflict.” 

Roule expects to see continued progress on elements of that deal, which “provides Saudi Arabia and the US with what they need to maintain and build what is a very positive and critical relationship for the US and for the region.” 

Moving on to Lebanon, Roule said that to bring peace to the war-torn country, “there’s a simple solution with a difficult approach to get there.

“We need first to remove Lebanese Hezbollah north of the Litani (River) to empower the Lebanese armed forces to come south of the Litani and do their job — and be able to do so without fear of Lebanese Hezbollah,” he said.

Nevertheless, he stressed that the first priority is to “end the conflict” and “end the suffering of the Lebanese people, end the suffering of the Israeli people.”

Pointing to the fact that “60,000 Israelis have left their home and prior to the Lebanese recent conflict, 100,000 Lebanese were not going into their homes, and now we have a million displaced Lebanese,” Roule said: “We’ve got to make that our first priority.”

Achieving peace in Lebanon, according to Roule, hinges on one key factor: “The Lebanese people must be willing to stand up against Lebanese Hezbollah.”

Elaborating on the point, he said: “This isn’t something that we’re going to be able to do. And I’ll close by saying that one bit of diplomatic guidance that in the intelligence community we often give to diplomats is: We can’t want a solution more than the people on the ground.

“The Lebanese people must appoint a president, empower their armed forces, push back on Lebanese Hezbollah.”

He is sure that once the Lebanese decide on the political solution, the US “will assist them and support them and provide them with billions of dollars of aid.

“But, at a certain point, the political solution must be their own.”

Asked about the outlook for the war in Lebanon, especially after Israeli official Michael Freund told the Jerusalem Post that southern Lebanon is actually “northern Israel,” Roule said “harsh rhetoric” is “coming from all sides — Lebanese Hezbollah, elements of the Israeli government, and Palestinians themselves — on all of these issues.”

President-elect Trump pledged throughout his campaign to quickly end the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Roule believes that Trump, who opposes “endless wars,” will pursue this goal by surrounding himself with people who share his worldview. 




In this photo taken on October 7, 2024, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a remembrance event in Miami, Florida, to mark the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. (AFP/File photo)

“President Trump does see himself as a deal maker and he assigns to key positions around him individuals with the same worldview,” he said.

“So, you’re going to get individuals who are generally sympathetic toward Israel, confident of the strong US relationship with the Gulf Cooperation Council states, willing to deter Iran, willing to do what it takes to keep the US out of regional conflicts, but willing also to push back on adversaries.”

While Trump does not want to see the US in a war in the Middle East or in Europe any more than President Biden, the two administrations’ approach to these issues in significantly different ways, according to Roule. 

“President Trump’s goal appears to be how do we bring some sort of agreement together that stops the killing and restores the diplomatic channels so that we can bring about peace in Europe,” he said.

He added that Trump’s goal in regard to Iran is “probably” similar.

“Iran needs to reduce its nuclear program, cease its regional adventurism, and act like a normal nation,” Roule said. “If Iran is willing to do this, as we’ve seen in the previous Trump administration, they will offer engagement. 

“But if not, in either of these cases, what you’re going to see is likely the Trump administration not unwilling to provide Ukraine with more weapons, because Russia won’t cooperate — and also to conduct significant pressure against Iran.”




US President-elect Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as they meet in Palm-Beach, Florida, on Nov. 22, 2024. Rutte held talks with US President-elect Donald Trump in Florida The duo talked about the "global security issues facing the alliance," a spokeswoman said. (NATO handout photo via AFP)

When asked whether Ukrainians and Europeans fear that Trump’s policies might prioritize Russia in a deal and pressure Kyiv, the EU, and NATO to accept it — much like the withdrawal from Afghanistan — Roule responded that the US approach would ultimately depend on whether the issue is deemed existential to its interests. 

“The Trump administration’s position is going to be: If this is an existential issue for Europe, then it must act accordingly. And there are some countries in Europe which still will not meet their NATO obligations,” he said.

“The Trump administration’s position is going to be, not unreasonably, if this is existential for us and we must participate accordingly, why isn’t it existential for you?”

Turning to Ukraine, Roule said this has been “a costly, bloody war” within the country. “They’ve lost many of their people to Russian aggression. This is a criminal invasion of another country,” he said.

“That said, if you’re interested in stopping the violence, at some point all wars come to a diplomatic solution. They may not be attractive, but that solution is needed.”
 

 


Police arrest 400 in Istanbul: lawyers group

Updated 55 min 17 sec ago
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Police arrest 400 in Istanbul: lawyers group

  • “The number of arrests that have been reported to us exceeds 400,” the Istanbul branch of the CHD lawyers group wrote on X
  • There was no immediate comment on the detentions from city authorities

ISTNABUL: Police arrested more than 400 people in Istanbul on Thursday, with parts of Turkiye’s biggest city paralyzed in a bid to prevent May Day demonstrations, a lawyers group said.
On Wednesday city authorities closed metro, bus and ferry services in the metropolis and arrested 100 people who were allegedly planning to protest in the city’s central Taksim Square, where demonstrations have been banned since 2013.
This year’s May Day comes as the government is embroiled in a showdown with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CPH), following the detention of its presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu.
Imamoglu, who is Istanbul’s mayor, is the biggest political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“The number of arrests that have been reported to us exceeds 400,” the Istanbul branch of the CHD lawyers group wrote on X on Thursday.
There was no immediate comment on the detentions from city authorities.
AFP journalists witnessed several dozen people arrested in neighborhoods on the European side of the city.
Several thousand people assembled in sanctioned protests called by labor unions on the Asian side of the city, according to local media and an AFP journalist.
On Wednesday, rights group Amnesty International urged Turkiye to lift the ban on demonstrations in Taksim.
“The restrictions on May Day celebrations in Taksim Square are based on entirely spurious security and public order grounds and... must be urgently lifted,” said Dinushika Dissanayake, an Amnesty’s specialist on Europe.
As happens every year, the square has been sealed off with metal barriers for several days, with a heavy police presence.


Turkiye stresses opposition to decentralization in Syria

Updated 01 May 2025
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Turkiye stresses opposition to decentralization in Syria

  • Ankara sees decentralization demands by Syria’s Kurds as a threat because of what it says are their cross-border links to Kurdish militants in Türkiye
  • “Turkiye does not accept any initiative that targets Syria’s territorial integrity,” a Turkish Foreign Ministry source said

ANKARA: Türkiye rejects any plans that undermine the central government in Syrian Arab Republic or threaten its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Turkish sources said, responding to demands from Kurds for Syria to adopt a decentralized system of government.
Türkiye backed rebels against former President Bashar Assad for years and is seen as the closest foreign ally of Syria’s new Islamist leaders, vowing to help them rebuild and stabilize a country devastated by 14 years of war.
Ankara sees decentralization demands by Syria’s Kurds as a threat because of what it says are their cross-border links to Kurdish militants in Türkiye, while it looks to end a decades-old conflict with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militia.
Rival Syrian Kurdish parties, including the dominant Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast, agreed at a meeting on Saturday on a common political vision for the country’s Kurdish minority and decentralization, a call rejected by Syria’s leadership.
Turkish sources elaborated on comments by President Tayyip Erdogan, who said on Wednesday that decentralization demands in Syria were “nothing more than a raw dream.”
“Turkiye does not accept any initiative that targets Syria’s territorial integrity, that will damage its sovereignty, or that allows weapons to be carried by others not in the Syrian central authority,” a Turkish Foreign Ministry source said.
Türkiye, a NATO member, views the US-backed SDF as a terrorist organization.
Ankara welcomed a March deal between the SDF and Damascus to merge Kurdish-led governing bodies and security forces with the central government, but said it must also ensure the dismantling of the YPG militia spearheading the SDF, and of the SDF’s chain of command.

PROVIDING ‘SPACE’
The source said Türkiye had provided “the necessary space” for Damascus to address Türkiye’s concerns over Kurdish militants in Syria. Ankara has previously warned of military action if its concerns are not alleviated.
A Turkish defense ministry source said on Wednesday that demands for autonomy could harm Syria’s sovereignty and regional stability.
“We cannot consent to the disintegration of Syria’s territorial integrity and the deterioration of its unitary structure under any guise,” the source told a briefing in Ankara.
“We are against autonomous region and/or decentralized rhetoric or activities, just as is the new Syrian administration.”
Late on Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Oncu Keceli said all regional countries must contribute to Syria’s security and stability, calling on Israel to halt “its air strikes that harm the unity and integrity of Syria.”
Israel has been mounting air strikes inside Syria, which Türkiye has called an unacceptable provocation to harm Syria’s unity in the post-Assad era. Ankara has been a fierce critic of Israel since it launched the Gaza war.
Ankara also wants all Western sanctions imposed on Syria to be fully lifted and for US troops stationed in the northeast to withdraw.


Paramilitary shelling hits Sudan’s presidential palace: army source

Updated 01 May 2025
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Paramilitary shelling hits Sudan’s presidential palace: army source

  • RSF used “long-range artillery” launched from their holdout position in Al-Salha
  • They targeted the army’s General Command headquarters in central Khartoum

KHARTOUM: Sudan’s presidential palace in central Khartoum was shelled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on Thursday, a military source said, the second such attack on the capital in a week.
The RSF, at war with the army for two years, used “long-range artillery” launched from their holdout position in Al-Salha, located south of Khartoum’s twin city of Omdurman, the source told AFP on condition of anonymity.
There were no immediate reports of casualties.
On Saturday, the RSF targeted the army’s General Command headquarters in central Khartoum, also using long-range artillery fire, according to a military source.
The attacks come weeks after the army pushed the RSF out of central Khartoum, which the paramilitary had swept through early in the war.
In a major military offensive in March, army forces regained control of the presidential palace, the airport and other strategic areas in the capital.
But the RSF still clings to its last pockets of control in southern and western Omdurman.
Since April 2023, the war in Sudan has killed tens of thousands, uprooted 13 million and created the world’s largest hunger and displacement crises.
The conflict has effectively divided the country in two with the army holding the center, east and north while the RSF controls nearly all of Darfur and parts of the south.


Tunisia leader’s opponents, supporters stage rival rallies in sharp political split

Updated 01 May 2025
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Tunisia leader’s opponents, supporters stage rival rallies in sharp political split

  • The anti-Saied demonstration reflects growing concerns among human rights groups that the birthplace of the Arab Spring is sliding toward one-man rule

TUNIS: Opponents of Tunisian President Kais Saied protested on the streets of Tunis on Thursday, accusing him of using the judiciary and police to suppress critics, while his supporters held a counter-rally, highlighting a deepening political divide.
The anti-Saied demonstration — the second opposition protest in a week — reflects growing concerns among human rights groups that the birthplace of the Arab Spring is sliding toward one-man rule.
Demonstrators on the capital’s main thoroughfare chanted slogans such as “Saied go away, you are dictator” and “The people want the fall of the regime,” a slogan reminiscent of the 2011 uprising that toppled former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
On the same street, Habib Bourguiba Avenue, Saied’s supporters rallied in his defense, chanting, “No to foreign interference” and “The people want Saied again.”
Riot police deployed in large numbers to separate the groups. No clashes were reported.
The demonstrations follow a months-long government crackdown on Saied’s critics, including the detention last week of prominent lawyer Ahmed Souab, a fierce critic of the president.
On Thursday the anti-Saeid protesters marched from the headquarters of the Administrative Court, where Souab had served as a judge before retiring and becoming a lawyer widely respected by all political parties.
They then joined other protesters in a square that is home to the headquarters of the powerful UGTT union, before heading toward Habib Bourguiba Avenue.
Souab’s arrest followed prison sentences handed down last week to opposition leaders on conspiracy charges, drawing criticism from France, Germany, and the United Nations.
Saied rejected the criticisms, calling it a blatant interference in Tunisia’s sovereignty.
The opposition accuses Saied of undermining the democracy won in the 2011 revolution, since he seized extra powers in 2021 when he shut down the elected parliament and moved to rule by decree before assuming authority over the judiciary.
They described his move as a coup, while Saied says it was legal and necessary to end chaos and rampant corruption.
The leaders of most political parties in Tunisia are in prison, including Abir Moussi, leader of the Free Constitutional Party, and Rached Ghannouchi, the head of Ennahda — two of Saied’s most prominent opponents.
The government says there is democracy in Tunisia. Saied says he will not be a dictator, but insists that what he calls a corrupt elite must be held accountable.


Turkiye says it remains committed to contested ‘Kanal Istanbul’ project

Updated 01 May 2025
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Turkiye says it remains committed to contested ‘Kanal Istanbul’ project

  • The plan was shelved in recent years largely due to economic turmoil, lack of financing, and public opposition
  • Critics have questioned the viability of a waterway running 45 km (28 miles) through marshland and farms on the western edge of Istanbul

ANKARA: Turkiye is determined to construct a canal project intended to relieve pressure on the busy Bosphorus Strait, when financing is secured, a government minister said on Thursday, despite widespread criticism over its possible environmental impact.
President Tayyip Erdogan laid the foundation of the canal in 2021, aiming to connect the Black Sea north of Istanbul to the Marmara Sea to the south and prevent accidents in the Bosphorus.
The initiative, described by Erdogan as his “crazy project” when he revealed it more than a decade ago, was estimated to cost some 75 billion lira ($1.95 billion).
Critics have questioned the viability of a waterway running 45 km (28 miles) through marshland and farms on the western edge of Istanbul, and say it will wreak environmental havoc, destroy a marine ecosystem and endanger some fresh water supply for the country’s biggest city.
The plan was shelved in recent years largely due to economic turmoil, lack of financing, and public opposition.
“We have not abandoned the Kanal Istanbul project. It is not on our agenda today, but when the day comes, the right financing is found, we will definitely do it,” Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said.
He was speaking a day after Environment and Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum said the project was not, and had not been, on the government’s agenda for some time.
Uraloglu’s comments come amid a widening legal crackdown on opposition members of the Istanbul municipality, including senior personnel that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) says were responsible for environmental matters among other issues. The CHP runs the municipality.
In March, a court jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, from the CHP, as part of the months-long crackdown. The mayor is seen as Erdogan’s main political rival and leads him in some polls.
Imamoglu has denied all charges against him, while the CHP, other opposition parties and Western powers have said his arrest was a politicized move to eliminate a potential electoral threat to Erdogan, who has run the country for more than two decades.
His arrest has triggered mass protests and economic turmoil, but the government denies any influence over the judiciary.