Why Israel’s Gaza reoccupation threat is fueling fears of regional spillover

Israeli troops deploy at a position near the southern Israeli border with the Gaza Strip, on May 8, 2025, amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian militant movement Hamas. (AFP)
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Updated 11 May 2025
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Why Israel’s Gaza reoccupation threat is fueling fears of regional spillover

  • Analysts warn of slide toward ethnic cleansing as Israel signals plans for indefinite military control over enclave
  • Palestinian plight worsens as far-right voices increasingly influence Israeli war aims ahead of Trump’s Gulf tour

LONDON: For the people of Gaza, the threat of destruction, displacement and death at the hands of the Israeli military is nothing new.

But for the next week they will living with a countdown to a threatened operation that would be unprecedented: the complete and indefinite occupation of Gaza by Israel, and the forcing of its Palestinian population into a tiny area in the south of the strip.

If such an unthinkable end-game exercise were to go ahead — and reports that tens of thousands of Israeli reservists are being called up suggests it might — critics of the plan say Israel appears to have forgotten the lessons of the events that led to its own creation in 1948.

According to sources inside the Israeli government, the only thing standing between the Palestinians of Gaza and this 21st-century Nakba is next week’s visit to the region by US President Donald Trump, who is due to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE between Tuesday and Friday. 




A picture taken near Israel's border with Gaza shows Israeli armored vehicles and bulldozers returning to the besieged Palestinian territory on May 8, 2025, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (AFP) 

On Tuesday this week an unnamed Israeli defense official told AP that the operation would not be launched before Trump had left the region, adding there was a “window of opportunity” for a ceasefire and a hostage deal during the president’s visit.

And so, the countdown to the military operation began. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his security cabinet had approved an “intensive” renewed offensive against Hamas in Gaza, and that Palestinians would be moved “for their own safety.”

“Last night we stayed up late in the cabinet and decided on an intensive operation in Gaza,” Netanyahu said.

A US-backed truce between Israel and Hamas ended in March, after only two months, when Israel resumed its attacks.

It was, Netanyahu added, seeming to tether a scapegoat to the decision, “the chief of staff’s recommendation to proceed, as he put it, toward the defeat of Hamas — and along the way, he believes this will also help us rescue the hostages.”

News of the plan triggered immediate protests outside Israel’s parliament by families of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. Few among them believe the plan has anything to do with a genuine desire to see their loved ones freed.




Israelis demonstrate in front of the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv on May 10, 2025, calling on the Netanyahu government to end the war and to secure the release of the hostages held since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas militants. (AFP) 

The chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces is retired Major-General Eyal Zamir, a favorite of the far-right members of Israel’s government, who was appointed only last month. His predecessor resigned, after taking responsibility for Israel’s military failings during the Hamas attack in October 2023.

“I’m pretty sure Zamir is praying that he will not have to execute this plan,” Ahron Bregman, a UK-based Israeli historian and senior teaching fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, and a former IDF officer, told Arab News. “He’s experienced enough to know that the operation might well kill the remaining Israeli hostages, or lead to a situation where the hostages are left to die in the tunnels without water or food, never to be found.

“As I have always maintained, Israel cannot destroy Hamas. Hamas, weak, bleeding and exhausted, will still be in the Gaza Strip when this hopeless war is over,” he added.

Israeli troops, who have evicted Palestinians from so-called security zones, already occupy about one-third of Gaza. If implemented, the new plan would see the seizure of the entire territory, with Gaza’s remaining two million Palestinians forced toward the south.

The UN has already expressed alarm at Israel’s plan to expand its operation in Gaza. “This will inevitably lead to countless more civilians killed and the further destruction of Gaza,” UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said on Monday. “What’s imperative now is an end to the violence, not more civilian deaths and destruction.”




Palestinians and Hamas fighters attend a funeral procession for 40 militants and civilians killed during the war with Israel, at the Shati camp for Palestinian refugees north of Gaza City on February 28, 2025. (AFP)

He added: “Gaza is, and must remain, an integral part of a future Palestinian state.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s security cabinet has voted to end distribution of aid by international NGOs and UN bodies, and to give the job to as-yet unnamed private companies. At the beginning of the month, the UN condemned Israel’s decision two months ago to halt humanitarian aid as a “cruel collective punishment” of the Palestinian population.

On Friday, Mike Huckabee, US ambassador to Israel, said a US-backed mechanism for distributing aid into Gaza should take effect soon but he gave few details. Israel and the US have both indicated in recent days that they were preparing to restore aid through mechanisms that would bypass Hamas.

“The Israeli military plan for Gaza is mainly aimed at satisfying the far-right elements in Netanyahu’s government,” said Bregman. “The new idea here is seizing chunks of the Gaza Strip and staying there, not getting out, as used to be the case.”

Right-wing, pro-settler members of the Israeli Cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr, “hope that staying inside will eventually lead to the resettling of the Gaza Strip by Jewish settlers who will resort to the tactics they employ on the West Bank, building settlements even if ‘official Israel’ opposes it,” he added. “They also trust far-right elements in the IDF — and the IDF is packed with them, especially in the ground forces — to turn a blind eye and enable the resettling of the Strip.” 

But, he warned, “if ordered to implement the Gaza plan, Israeli troops must refuse to carry out the orders, lest they turn themselves into war criminals.”

On Tuesday, the day after Netanyahu’s announcement, Smotrich told a settlements conference in the West Bank that Gaza would soon be “totally destroyed,” and that its entire population would be “concentrated” in a narrow strip of land along the Egyptian border, which he euphemistically described as a “humanitarian zone.” 

Here, he added, ”they will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and British consul-general in Jerusalem, told Arab News: “There are clearly elements within the Israeli Cabinet who want to reoccupy some or even all of Gaza and there are others who want to establish settlements. What is unclear is how extensive or long-term such plans are — and whether they have Netanyahu’s full support.




Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and British consul-general in Jerusalem. (Supplied)

“He has clearly got his own tactical reasons for going along with some of the wilder claims: he needs to keep Smotrich and Ben Gvir inside the tent in order to maintain his government. He also probably genuinely believes — as, quite rightly, do most Israelis and a lot of outsiders — that Hamas cannot be allowed to retain political control of Gaza when the fighting stops.

“But he must also know that without a long-term political plan, this won’t work. Israel needs its neighbors to support it in its quest for security. And they will do so only if they have an answer to the question: How do we collectively make Israeli security compatible with Palestinian self-determination?”

Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said it remains unclear whether Israel’s threat of reoccupation is “a form of deterrence, a credible threat, or a last-ditch effort to (force) Hamas’ hand.”

However, “the fear of abandoning the Israeli hostages to a terrible fate is too much to bear for the majority of the Israeli polity, and this would inevitably have consequences for the current Israeli government,” he told Arab News.

President Trump’s upcoming visit may also change the script. “It is rumored that Trump is not on board with Israel’s escalation of the war in Gaza, especially ahead of his visit to the Gulf next week,” said Ozcelik. “The White House has been pressing for a deal to announce as a triumph and a hostage-release announcement would be a crucial win for (US special envoy to the Middle East) Steve Witkoff, but so far it has been elusive.”

Furthermore, “under the threat of a looming ‘forever’ Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, Saudi Arabia cannot be expected to agree to any deal with the US that is conditional on normalization with Israel. So, this, in a counterintuitive way, throws open a path for US-Saudi security cooperation,” Ozcelik added.

Doubts also surround the announcement by Witkoff that the US will set up a private foundation to deliver aid to Gaza, without involving the IDF or the US government. 

“The UN and key international humanitarian agencies have already rejected both the US and Israeli aid proposals, labelling them highly unworkable,” Kelly Petillo, program manager, MENA, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Arab News.

“And in the context of Israel’s campaign of starvation by stopping humanitarian aid since March and the targeting of civilians, hospitals, schools and so on, and of the new US administration’s rhetoric around the Gaza war and overall positioning, there are clearly doubts over the lack of good will by the delivering authorities, which means that Palestinians will be starved and eventually be forced to leave. 




Palestinians struggle to obtain donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 9, 2025. (AP Photo)




Ward Nar, left, reacts as she speaks with the photographer after returning empty-handed from attempting to receive donated food for her family, including her husband Mohammed Zaharna (center right) and their children at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 9, 2025. (AP Photo)

“This would amount to ethnic cleansing and also corresponds to weaponizing aid and using starvation as a weapon of war. It will mean that considerations over how many people will receive aid, or where distribution will occur, would be based on strategic or military considerations, rather than humanitarian ones.” 

Israel’s apparent ambition to force Palestinians out of Gaza can only further stoke regional tensions, added Petillo. 

“Regional actors, (most) of all Egypt and Jordan, have been very clear in their total rejection of any displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, and of the possibility of them receiving these refugees. In particular, Egypt has come up with a proposal to address aid and other issues as a way to counter this scenario. 




Displaced Palestinians gather amid the rubble of an UNRWA school-turned-shelter, heavily damaged in an overnight Israeli strike in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on May 10, 2025. (AFP)

“But the potential displacement of Palestinians in Gaza is nothing less than an existential threat for these countries which are also receiving so many other refugees — from Syria to Sudan and more. Syria and Lebanon have also been floated as possible destinations for Gazans, but this would be a major red line for these countries too.”

Echoing Petillo’s concerns, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said the Israeli plan to capture and indefinitely occupy Gaza “carries grave policy implications at multiple layers and levels for Israel, Palestinians and the region.”

Vakil said: “Beyond deepening an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis, it risks entrenching violent resistance, destabilizing neighboring states and triggering large-scale displacement that may be viewed internationally as ethnic cleansing — particularly in light of right-wing Israeli rhetoric and emboldening signals from past US policies.

“While Israel consistently sees Gaza as an existential security crisis that needs a military solution, it needs to take a step back and consider the larger and longer implications for its isolation, integration and values as a democracy,” she added. “Today, Arab states are watching Israel’s response in a fearful rather than (admiring) way.”




In this photo taken on August 8, 2024, displaced Palestinians leave an area in east Khan Yunis towards the west, after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of the city. (AFP)

Caroline Rose, director of the Strategic Blind Spots Portfolio at the Washington think-tank New Lines Institute, said the expansion in Israel’s war plan for the Gaza Strip “signals Netanyahu’s imperative to continue the conflict as a mechanism of political survival, despite the strain on Israel’s economy, IDF personnel and reserves, and reduced chances for a hostage agreement.”

She told Arab News: “It’s likely also that Netanyahu and his cabinet are seeking to expand operations as a negotiation tool with the US and its regional counterparts, particularly following disappointment with the US for exploring negotiation opportunities with Iran over their nuclear program.”

But “by design, this war plan will have serious implications for the civilian population of Gaza, as there are very few places left for them to go. It is a direct reflection of Netanyahu’s broader objective not only to eradicate Hamas, but also to seriously fragment the Palestinian cause and identity.”

In the past, said Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli lawyer whose NGO, Terrestrial Jerusalem, tracks developments in the city that threaten to spark violence or create humanitarian crises, “ethnic cleansing would have been unthinkable. But today the unthinkable has become thinkable and is unfolding in Gaza.” 

The Israeli government is “willing hostage to the messianic right” and is led by “a prime minister who will not only do anything to remain in power but is also a genuine believer in a world governed by war and brute force.”

More and more Israelis, he added, “are using the terms ‘genocide,’ ‘war crimes’ and ‘ethnic cleansing’ in decrying our actions in Gaza. Retired generals and former heads of the intelligence community are prominent among them.”

However, he said, “this trend is not visible in the partisan politics of the Knesset. With the exception of the Arab members, they remain spineless.”
 

 


Kuwaiti emir to attend Bastille Day, meet Macron during first official visit to France

Updated 13 sec ago
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Kuwaiti emir to attend Bastille Day, meet Macron during first official visit to France

  • Kuwaiti-French relations commited to improving cooperation and supporting regional and global stability
  • France was one of the first countries to support Kuwait’s independence in 1961

LONDON: Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah made his first official visit to France on Sunday since assuming power in December 2023.

The visit reflects the historical partnership between Paris and Kuwait, the Presidential Palace, the Elysee, said in a statement.

Sheikh Meshal will attend the official military parade to celebrate France’s national Bastille Day on July 14, alongside a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.

The two parties aim to strengthen ties by enhancing partnerships in sectors such as diplomacy, defense, economy, education, health, culture, and scientific research, the Kuwait Agency reported.

France was one of the first countries to support Kuwait’s independence in 1961 and played a significant role in 1991 in its liberation from Iraqi forces led by Saddam Hussein, the Elysee said.

Trade between Kuwait and France was worth €2.8 billion ($3.27 billion) in 2023, with French infrastructure, energy, and construction companies leading projects in Kuwait. More than 1,000 students benefited from the educational programs offered by the French Institute, while French healthcare institutions, such as the Gustave Roussy Institute, contributed to supporting the Kuwaiti healthcare sector through consultations and projects.

Kuwaiti-French relations display a strong partnership, with a commitment to improving cooperation and supporting regional and global stability, the Elysee added.

Minister of Defense Sheikh Abdullah Ali Al-Sabah, Foreign Minister Abdullah Al-Yahya, the chief of the Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority and other high officials are accompanying the emir of Kuwait.


Syria wildfires contained after 10 days

Updated 13 July 2025
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Syria wildfires contained after 10 days

  • The blazes in the coastal province of Latakia broke out amid an intense heatwave across the region
  • UN humanitarian agency says fires destroyed about 100 square kilometers of forest and farmland

DAMASCUS: Syria’s civil defense agency on Sunday said wildfires in the country’s west, which have burned vast tracts of forest and farmland and forced evacuations, had been brought under control after 10 days.

In a statement on Facebook, the agency said that “with the spread of the fires halted and the fire hotspots brought under control on all fronts” on Saturday, teams on the ground were working to cool down the affected areas while monitoring any signs of reignition.

The blazes in the coastal province of Latakia broke out amid an intense heatwave across the region.

The UN humanitarian agency OCHA said they destroyed about 100 square kilometers of forest and farmland.

As the fires raged, Syrian emergency workers faced tough conditions including high temperatures, strong winds, rugged mountainous terrain and the danger of explosive war remnants.

This all comes in a country worn down by years of conflict and economic crisis.

In a post on X, the Syrian minister for emergencies and disaster management, Raed Al-Saleh, said that with help from Turkish, Jordanian, Lebanese, Qatari and Iraqi teams, firefighters had “managed to halt the spread of the fire on all fronts, which is the most important step toward containing the wildfires.”

The “situation is the best it has been in the past 10 days,” Saleh said late Saturday.

“There are still threats due to wind activity, but we are working to prevent any renewed expansion of the fires,” the minister added.

The civil defense agency said rescue teams were carrying out “operations to open pathways and firebreaks within the forests... in order to reduce the chances of fire spreading in case of reignition.”

Authorities have not reported any casualties, but several towns in Latakia province have been evacuated as a precaution.

Nearly seven months after the ousting of longtime ruler Bashar Assad, Syria is still reeling from more than a decade of civil war that ravaged the country’s economy, infrastructure and public services.

With man-made climate change increasing the likelihood and intensity of droughts and wildfires worldwide, Syria has also been battered by heatwaves and low rainfall.

In June, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said that Syria had “not seen such bad climate conditions in 60 years.”


Apartment fire in Turkiye’s Ankara kills 3, including a baby

Updated 13 July 2025
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Apartment fire in Turkiye’s Ankara kills 3, including a baby

  • The blaze started late Saturday night on the fourth floor and spread rapidly, according to local media
  • Firefighters took four hours to extinguish the flames. The state-run Anadolu Agency reported that 39 suffered light smoke inhalation, including seven firefighters

Istanbul: A fire at a 26-story apartment building in the Turkish capital, Ankara, killed three people, including a three-and-a-half-month-old baby, local media said.
The blaze broke out at around 10:00 p.m. local time Saturday night on the fourth floor and quickly spread through the structure, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency. It took firefighters four hours to put out the fire.
The agency also reported that 39 suffered light smoke inhalation, including seven firefighters. Paramedics attended to 26 people on site, while 20 others have been hospitalized, one in critical condition.


59 Palestinians in Gaza killed by Israeli airstrikes or shot dead while seeking aid

Updated 13 July 2025
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59 Palestinians in Gaza killed by Israeli airstrikes or shot dead while seeking aid

  • The Red Cross said its field hospital saw its largest influx of dead in more than a year of operation after the shootings

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: At least 31 Palestinians were fatally shot on their way to an aid distribution site in the Gaza Strip on Saturday, while Israeli airstrikes killed at least 28 Palestinians including four children, Palestinian hospital officials and witnesses said.

There were no signs of a breakthrough in ceasefire talks following two days of meetings between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump had said he was nearing an agreement between Israel and Hamas that would potentially wind down the war.

The 31 Palestinians shot dead were on their way to a distribution site run by the Israeli-backed American organization Gaza Humanitarian Foundation near Rafah in southern Gaza, hospital officials and witnesses said.

The Red Cross said its field hospital saw its largest influx of dead in more than a year of operation after the shootings, and that the overwhelming majority of the more than 100 people hurt had gunshot wounds.

Airstrikes in central Gaza’s Deir Al-Balah killed 13 including the four children, officials at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital said. Fifteen others were killed in Khan Younis in the south, according to Nasser Hospital. Israel’s military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Intense airstrikes continued Saturday evening in the area of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza.

Israelis rallied yet again for a ceasefire deal. “Arrogance is what brought the disaster upon us,” former hostage Eli Sharabi said of Israeli leaders.

Teen’s first attempt to pick up food ends in death

The 21-month war has left much of Gaza’s population of over 2 million reliant on outside aid while food security experts warn of famine. Israel blocked and then restricted aid entry after ending the latest ceasefire in March.

“All responsive individuals reported they were attempting to access food distribution sites,” the Red Cross said after the shootings near Rafah, noting the “alarming frequency and scale” of such mass casualty incidents.

Israel’s military said it fired warning shots toward people it said were behaving suspiciously to prevent them from approaching. It said it was not aware of any casualties. The GHF said no incident occurred near its sites.

Abdullah Al-Haddad said he was 200 meters from the aid distribution site run by the GHF close to the Shakoush area when an Israeli tank started firing at crowds of Palestinians.

“We were together, and they shot us at once,” he said, writhing in pain from a leg wound at Nasser Hospital.

Mohammed Jamal Al-Sahloo, another witness, said Israel’s military had ordered them to proceed to the site when the shooting started.

Sumaya Al-Sha’er’s 17-year-old son, Nasir, was killed, hospital officials said.

“He said to me, ‘Mom, you don’t have flour and today I’ll go and bring you flour, even if I die, I’ll go and get it,’” she said. “But he never came back home.”

Until then, she said, she had prevented the teenager from going to GHF sites because she thought it was too dangerous.

Witnesses, health officials and UN officials say hundreds have been killed by Israeli fire while heading toward GHF distribution points through military zones off limits to independent media. The military has acknowledged firing warning shots at Palestinians who it says approached its forces in a suspicious manner.

The GHF denies there has been violence in or around its sites. But two of its contractors told The Associated Press that their colleagues have fired live ammunition and stun grenades as Palestinians scramble for food, allegations the foundation denied.

In a separate effort, the UN and aid groups say they struggle to distribute humanitarian aid because of Israeli military restrictions and a breakdown of law and order that has led to widespread looting.

The first fuel – 150,000 liters – entered Gaza this week after 130 days, a joint statement by UN aid bodies said, calling it a small amount for the “the backbone of survival in Gaza.” Fuel runs hospitals, water systems, transport and more, the statement said.

Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in their Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that sparked the war and abducted 251. Hamas still holds some 50 hostages, with at least 20 believed to remain alive.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 57,800 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry, under Gaza’s Hamas-run government, doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count. The UN and other international organizations see its figures as the most reliable statistics on war casualties.


Iran says it would resume nuclear talks with US if guaranteed no further attacks

Updated 13 July 2025
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Iran says it would resume nuclear talks with US if guaranteed no further attacks

  • Following the US strikes, Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, which led to the departure of inspectors
  • Top Iran envoy says that under Iranian law, the country will answer the agency’s request for cooperation ‘case by case’

Iran’s foreign minister said Saturday that his country would accept a resumption of nuclear talks with the US if there were assurances of no more attacks against it, state media reported.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a speech to Tehran-based foreign diplomats that Iran has always been ready and will be ready in the future for talks about its nuclear program, but, “assurance should be provided that in case of a resumption of talks, the trend will not lead to war.”

Referring to the 12-day Israeli bombardment of Iran’s nuclear and military sites, and the US strike on June 22, Araghchi said that if the US and others wish to resume talks with Iran, “first of all, there should be a firm guarantee that such actions will not be repeated. The attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has made it more difficult and complicated to achieve a solution based on negotiations.”

Following the strikes, Iran suspended cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, which led to the departure of inspectors.

Araghchi said that under Iranian law, the country will answer the agency’s request for cooperation “case by case,” based on Iran’s interests. He also said any inspection by the agency should be done based on Iran’s “security” concerns as well as the safety of the inspectors. “The risk of proliferation of radioactive ingredients and an explosion of ammunition that remains from the war in the attacked nuclear sites is serious,” he said.

He also reiterated Iran’s position on the need to continue enriching uranium on its soil. US President Donald Trump has insisted that cannot happen.

Israel claims it acted because Tehran was within reach of a nuclear weapon. US intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency had assessed Iran last had an organized nuclear weapons program in 2003, though Tehran had been enriching uranium up to 60 percent – a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in an interview published Monday said the US airstrikes so badly damaged his country’s nuclear facilities that Iranian authorities still have not been able to access them to survey the destruction.