Pakistan says inflation expected to remain within 1-1.5% range in March
Pakistan says inflation expected to remain within 1-1.5% range in March /node/2594760/business-economy
Pakistan says inflation expected to remain within 1-1.5% range in March
People visit a market to shop for the upcoming Eid al-Fitr celebrations, which marks the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, in Peshawar, Pakistan, on March 24, 2025. (AP)
KARACHI: Inflation is expected to remain within the 1-1.5% range in Pakistan during the month of March, the country’s Finance Division said in its monthly outlook report on Tuesday, as Islamabad navigates a tricky path to recovery from a macroeconomic crisis.
Aggressive policy rate cuts by Pakistan’s central bank and a series of economic reforms by the government has led to a substantial decline in Pakistan’s annual inflation rate, bringing it down to 1.5% in February 2025.
Pakistan’s inflation rate peaked to a record high of 38% in May 2023 on account of surging food and fuel costs as Islamabad withdrew energy and fuel subsidies under a deal agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a financial bailout package.
“Inflation is anticipated to remain within the range of 1.0-1.5% for March 2025 and inching up to 2.0-3.0% in April 2025,” the Finance Division said in the outlook report.
It added that high frequency indicators, such as a “positive” growth in cement sales, increased automobile production and higher imports with an easy monetary policy, suggest a potential uptick in production if demand conditions remain supportive.
The report highlighted that Pakistan may record a likely increase in foreign remittances due to “seasonal factors” such as the holy month of Ramadan and the upcoming Eid festivals.
“Similarly, exports and imports are expected to improve owing to the expansion in economic activity,” the report said. “Collectively, these factors will help to keep the current account within manageable limits.”
The report praised the government’s resource mobilization, saying it had led to an increase in tax collection during the month and also noted the “favorable” performance of the Pakistan Stock Exchange compared to major global indices.
Pakistan’s government has claimed the country is finally on the path to sustainable economic growth, vowing to undertake long-term financial reforms. The nation expects its foreign exchange reserves to increase beyond $13 billion by June despite weak net financial inflows caused by a shortfall in the planned official inflows.
Pakistan has also repaid the majority of its external debt due this year, according to the central bank.
Gold hits record high, on track for best quarter since 1986 on tariff worries
Bullion up over 18 percent so far for the quarter
Trump expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2
Silver, platinum, palladium set for monthly gains
Updated 11 sec ago
Reuters
BENGALURU: Gold hit a record high and was set to post its biggest quarterly gain in over 38 years on Monday, as concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans widening the global trade war and triggering an economic slowdown boosted bullion’s appeal.
Spot gold jumped 1.1 percent to $3,116.82 an ounce, as of 0638 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $3,128.06 earlier. US gold futures was up 1.1 percent to $3,148.00.
Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainties, has risen over 18 percent so far this quarter, its biggest quarterly gain since September 1986.
Interest rate cut bets, central bank buying and exchange-traded fund demand are the other factors that have supported the rally. The rapid price rise prompted multiple banks to increase their 2025 price forecasts.
The dollar index eased 0.2 percent, making greenback-priced gold less expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
“Markets’ anxiety levels have been ramping up ahead of the reciprocal US tariff announcements, which is keeping gold in high demand as a defensive play,” KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said.
“If the tariff announcements this week are not as severe as feared, then the gold price could start to backtrack as profit-taking from the highs may be triggered.”
Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, while automobile tariffs will take effect on April 3. On Sunday, Trump said he was “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir
Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25 percent-50 percent on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said inflation data released on Friday confirms her decreased confidence in her baseline expectation that two rate cuts this year are a “reasonable” projection.
Spot silver rose 0.6 percent to $34.32 an ounce, platinum was up 1.1 percent to $994.60 and palladium gained 0.9 percent to $980.11. All three metals headed for monthly gains.
Oil Updates — prices ease despite Trump warning of possible tariffs on Russian buyers
Updated 31 March 2025
Reuters
LONDON: Oil prices slipped on Monday, heading for a modest quarterly loss, despite a warning from US President Donald Trump that he may impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
The more active June Brent crude futures fell 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $72.46 a barrel by 6:30 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $69.03 a barrel.
Front-month Brent, which was down 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $73.36, expires later on Monday.
Both benchmarks were on track to end the month slightly lower, and post their first quarterly drop in two quarters.
Trump said on Sunday he was “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir Putin and will impose 25 percent-50 percent secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Trump said he could impose the new trade measures within a month.
“There are a couple of ways to read the headlines and the price sell-off. The first is that the market isn’t buying into Trump’s threats and doesn’t believe it,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
“The second is that Trump’s threats, if enacted, would be another step down the pathway toward a trade war, which will weigh on global growth and demand for crude oil.”
Trump also threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group, which comprises OPEC and allies led by Russia, is set to begin its program of monthly increases in oil production in April. The group will likely continue to raise oil output in May, Reuters reported last week.
“We expect WTI to stay in a range of $65 to $75 for now as the market assesses the impact of Trump tariffs on oil supply and global economy, as well as the supply situation from the US and OPEC+,” said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities.
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may lower its crude prices for Asian buyers in May to a three-month low, tracking the steep declines in benchmark prices this month, traders said.
Elsewhere, Iran has lowered the price of its light crude oil grade for Asian buyers to $3.95 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average for April.
Talks to restart Kurdish oil exports through the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline have hit a snag as a lack of clarity over payments and contracts persists, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
Qatar’s producer prices steady in February as oil, gas drag index
Updated 30 March 2025
REEM WALID
RIYADH: Qatar’s general producer price index for the industrial sector stood at 114.01 points in February, reflecting stability compared to January and a 0.33 percent decrease year on year.
Released by the Gulf country’s Planning and Statistics Authority, the data indicated that the PPI for the industrial sector is made up of four main components: mining and quarrying, which constitutes 82.46 percent, manufacturing at 15.85 percent, electricity at 1.16 percent, and water at 0.53 percent.
The newly released figures align with Qatar’s inflation easing by 1.15 percent year on year in January, with the consumer price index settling at 107.45 points, driven by declines in food, housing, and transport costs, official figures showed.
This trend is consistent with the 2.53 percent drop in CPI in January, mainly attributable to a decline in housing, water, electricity, and other fuel costs.
The decline comes as Qatar is projected to record the lowest inflation in the Gulf Cooperation Council region this year, averaging 1.4 percent, below the GCC’s 1.9 percent and the wider Arab region’s 8.5 percent, according to Kamco Invest.
The data further showed that the mining and quarrying sector index declined by 0.12 percent compared to January, primarily owing to a 0.11 percent drop in the prices of crude oil and natural gas extraction, while the costs for other mining and quarrying activities remained unchanged.
Annually, the sector’s index dropped by 0.42 percent, primarily due to a decline in oil and gas extraction, although there was a modest 0.06 percent increase in prices for other mining and quarrying activities.
In the manufacturing sector, the index rose by 0.50 percent on a monthly basis, driven by price increases in rubber and plastic products, refined petroleum, chemicals, and basic metals, as well as cement, non-metallic minerals, and beverages.
On an annual basis, the manufacturing sector index increased by 0.60 percent compared to the corresponding month a year earlier, driven by a notable rise in prices for basic metals, cement and non-metallic mineral products, and rubber and plastic products, as well as chemical products, beverages, and printing.
In the electricity, gas, and air conditioning supply sector, the index rose by 1.01 percent compared to January but showed a year-on-year decline of 8.28 percent.
The water supply sector saw a decrease in its index by 2.75 percent compared to January but recorded an annual increase of 7.24 percent in February.
The numbers also indicated that prices declined for refined petroleum goods and food products, while there was no change in the prices of printing and reproduction of recorded media.
Saudi Arabia’s domestic tourism thrives as Eid travel peaks
Updated 30 March 2025
REEM WALID
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s domestic tourism sector is experiencing a sharp rise in travel during Eid Al-Fitr, injecting fresh momentum into the hospitality industry. A growing preference for local destinations is reshaping the market as residents seek immersive experiences within the nation’s tourism landscape.
The Kingdom saw a 45 percent rise in domestic flight bookings in 2024, driven by expanding tourism offerings and greater connectivity through low-cost carriers, according to Almosafer’s latest travel trend report released in January.
Domestic travel has surged in recent years, with Eid Al-Fitr becoming a peak period for local tourism, said Nicolas Mayer, PwC Middle East partner and global tourism industry lead. He noted that domestic flight bookings rose 45 percent year-on-year in 2024, highlighting a growing preference for local exploration.
“There are a few key reasons behind this shift. First, the Kingdom has made huge strides in improving its tourism offerings. With more affordable flight options due to low-cost carriers, travel has become a lot more accessible,” Mayer said.
The report showed a 39 percent increase in domestic room night bookings, while combined local flight and hotel reservations accounted for over 40 percent of the travel market, up 11 percent year-on-year.
The surge in domestic travel is fueled by a broader range of destinations, accommodations, and experiences attracting leisure visitors. Family and group travel have been major drivers, with bookings in these segments soaring over 70 percent.
Saudi Arabia’s mega-projects, including NEOM, a futuristic city on the Red Sea, and The Red Sea Project, which focuses on luxury and eco-tourism, further fuel domestic tourism growth. Cultural landmarks like AlUla, known for its ancient Nabatean heritage, and Diriyah, the birthplace of the Saudi state, are undergoing significant restoration to offer visitors rich historical and cultural experiences.
“Eid Al-Fitr is a special time for families and culture, and it encourages travel and experiencing something new. There are so many great options for people to celebrate within the Kingdom — it’s a great opportunity to discover Saudi Arabia’s rich culture and hidden gems right here at home,” he added.
Mayer pointed to Saudi Arabia’s massive investment in tourism infrastructure under Vision 2030, which is making it easier for residents to explore new destinations.
The Kingdom’s Minister of Tourism Ahmed Al-Khateeb recently said that the nation’s tourism accommodation is expected to double over the next decade. The country currently has around 400,000 guest rooms, projected to reach 800,000 by 2030. Al-Khateeb reiterated Saudi Arabia’s goal of becoming one of the world’s top seven tourism destinations by the end of the decade.
At King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, officials have observed a significant rise in family and group bookings, which have grown over 70 percent across key traveler segments.
Nour El-Shikh, media and public relations specialist in global branding and communications at KAUST, said travel groups are gravitating toward destinations that offer distinctive events and experiences.
“While major cities like Makkah, Riyadh, and Jeddah remain popular, emerging spots like Abha, Al Jubail, Jizan, Tabuk, and Hail are drawing increased attention for their unique landscapes and activities,” El-Shikh said.
AlUla, a UNESCO-listed site, has also gained traction as a premier domestic and international destination, a sign of Saudi Arabia’s continued investment in diversifying its tourism appeal.
“This has fostered a renewed appreciation for the Kingdom’s rich cultural heritage and natural beauty. The combination of improved infrastructure, increased accessibility, and a growing emphasis on family-oriented activities has made exploring local destinations more appealing than ever,” El-Shikh added.
The Haramain Train, which connects Madinah, Jeddah, and Makkah, is another example of how Saudi Arabia is reducing car traffic and improving access to Islam’s two holiest cities, she added.
Nicolas Mayer, PwC Middle East partner, global tourism industry lead. Supplied.
Hotels, resorts adapt to demand
With the surge in domestic travelers, Saudi Arabia’s hospitality sector is evolving to cater to changing preferences. Mayer pointed out that hotels and resorts are focusing on personalized experiences rather than simply increasing room capacity.
“Take Eid, for example. It’s a time when families want to be together, enjoy traditions, and make memories. Operators are catching on to that and offering packages and programs that feel more meaningful — whether it’s culturally inspired dining, kids’ activities, or even small touches that reflect the spirit of the holiday,” he said.
The demand for alternative accommodations is also growing, with vacation rentals, villas, and hotel apartments gaining popularity, particularly among families. Meanwhile, digital innovation is playing a critical role in enhancing the travel experience.
“If the booking process isn’t smooth or the service isn’t responsive, people notice. Tech isn’t a nice-to-have anymore — it’s expected,” Mayer added.
El-Shikh echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that many establishments are expanding and renovating to accommodate larger groups. “They are also introducing special Eid packages with family activities, cultural events, and traditional culinary experiences,” she said.
Mobile apps, virtual tours, and seamless payment methods such as Apple Pay and buy now, pay later options are also shaping consumer behavior. Sustainability and eco-friendly practices are becoming a priority, aligning with modern travelers’ values.
Future of domestic tourism
Saudi Arabia’s domestic tourism market is set for further transformation, driven by technology and evolving consumer expectations. Mayer expects a rising demand for personalized, culturally immersive, and seamless experiences.
“On the business side, I’m seeing a lot of energy going into creating more curated, tech-enabled journeys. Travelers expect smooth bookings, helpful digital tools, and recommendations that feel relevant. It’s no longer about just having a website or an app — it’s about using tech to anticipate what people want before they even ask,” he said.
The expansion of tourism beyond the well-known urban centers is also unlocking new opportunities. “More regions across the Kingdom are starting to offer these kinds of experiences. We’re moving beyond the well-known cities, and that’s opening up a whole new set of opportunities for domestic tourism,” Mayer added.
El-Shikh highlighted a growing trend toward experiential travel, where visitors seek immersive cultural experiences. “Stakeholders are developing unique offerings that highlight the Kingdom’s diverse heritage and natural landscapes,” she said.
New infrastructure fuels demand
The Kingdom’s infrastructure expansion is proving to be a game-changer for domestic tourism. Mayer noted that investments in roads, airports, and public transport are making once-remote destinations more accessible.
“It’s not just about building new airports or roads — it’s about opening new areas of the country that people might not have explored before,” he said.
Businesses are capitalizing on this momentum by designing experiences tied to local culture. “Around Eid especially, we see more businesses take advantage of that momentum. They’re creating experiences that feel connected to a place — whether it’s a cultural festival, a family-friendly activity, or a beautifully restored heritage site that tells a local story. These touchpoints resonate with travelers because it’s not just leisure — it’s personal,” Mayer explained.
El-Shikh added that in-destination activities such as guided tours, adventure sports, and cultural experiences are central to travel, enhancing engagement with local communities. “By collaborating with local artisans, cultural institutions, and heritage sites, tourism businesses are creating unique experiences that resonate with residents and encourage them to appreciate their own cultural heritage,” she said.
As Saudi Arabia continues to develop its tourism sector, a rising emphasis on domestic travel is expected to fuel sustained growth, further embedding Eid Al-Fitr as a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s evolving travel landscape.
Oman’s Islamic banking assets surge 17% to $22.3bn in 2024
Updated 30 March 2025
MIGUEL HADCHITY
RIYADH: Islamic banking in Oman continued its rapid expansion in 2024, with total assets reaching 8.6 billion Omani rials ($22.3 billion) by December — marking a 16.6 percent increase from the previous year, official data showed.
The segment now accounts for 19.2 percent of Oman’s total banking assets, according to data released by the Central Bank of Oman.
Financing extended by Islamic financial institutions grew by 14.2 percent to approximately 7 billion rials. Additionally, deposits at Islamic banks and windows jumped 21.3 percent, reaching nearly 6.7 billion rials by the end of December.
The steady growth of Oman’s Islamic banking sector reflects the rising demand for Shariah-compliant financial services and its expanding contribution to the country’s banking industry, CBO added.
Oman’s banking system comprises both conventional and Islamic banking services. Islamic banking is offered through standalone financial institutions and dedicated windows within conventional banks, which can be local or foreign entities licensed in Oman.
In May 2011, the CBO issued preliminary licensing guidelines to introduce Islamic banking in the Sultanate. This framework enabled full-fledged Islamic banks and Islamic windows to operate alongside conventional financial institutions.
The initiative was formally established in December 2012 through a Royal Decree that amended the Banking Law, mandating Islamic banks and windows to form their own Shariah supervisory boards. It also authorized the CBO to create a central High Shariah Supervisory Authority.
Following these developments, the CBO introduced the Islamic Banking Regulatory Framework in December 2012, alongside regulations governing the Hawala Settlement and Safeguard Account.
This initiative aligned with Oman’s broader economic strategy, promoting financial inclusion, economic diversification, and responsible financial practices.
Since its inception, Islamic banking in Oman has played a key role in advancing the objectives of Oman Vision 2040.
“This sector has played a vital role in augmenting national savings and investment, contributing to the development of a more diversified investment base and availability of wider range of financial products and services for consumers and businesses,” CBO said.
In November, Fitch Ratings forecasted continued growth in Oman’s Islamic finance sector, driven by increasing consumer demand, expanding distribution networks, greater use of sukuk for public funding, and ongoing regulatory advancements.
A key development in October was the CBO’s introduction of the Bank Deposit Protection Law, extending deposit protection to Islamic financial institutions — an essential step in bolstering confidence in the sector.
The agency added that strong economic conditions, improved asset quality, stable profitability, and solid capitalization position Islamic banks to withstand moderate financial shocks, despite regional geopolitical risks.
