Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 4.4%: GASTAT

According to flash estimates from the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom’s non-oil activities grew by 4.6 percent year on year in the fourth quarter, reflecting ongoing efforts to diversify the economy. shutterstock
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Updated 30 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 4.4%: GASTAT

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product saw an annual expansion of 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking its highest growth in two years, official data showed.

According to flash estimates from the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom’s non-oil activities grew by 4.6 percent year on year in the three months to the end of December, reflecting ongoing efforts to diversify the economy.

The report also noted that oil activities rose by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2023, while government activities expanded by 2.2 percent.

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth aligns with the broader Middle East trend, where countries are steadily advancing economic diversification.

The UAE’s central bank projects 4 percent GDP growth in 2024, while Bahrain and Qatar reported year-on-year expansions of 2.1 percent and 2 percent, respectively, in the third quarter. Qatar’s full-year GDP grew by 1.7 percent, driven by a 1.9 percent rise in non-hydrocarbon activities.

Reflecting on the Saudi figures, GASTAT said: “The results also showed that seasonally adjusted real GDP increased by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of the same year.” 

Strengthening the non-oil sector remains a key goal under the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 as efforts continue to reduce the dependence on oil revenues and drive sustainable economic growth.

Compared to the third quarter, non-oil activities in the Kingdom grew by 1.3 percent, while government activities rose by 0.3 percent. However, oil activities witnessed a quarterly decline of 1.5 percent.

For the full year 2024, Saudi Arabia’s GDP expanded by 1.3 percent compared to 2023. This increase was primarily driven by a 4.3 percent rise in non-oil activities, underscoring the Kingdom’s focus on economic diversification.

Government activities recorded a 2.6 percent annual increase, while oil activities contracted by 4.5 percent due to OPEC+ output cuts, which have impacted production levels.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund projected that Saudi Arabia’s economy will grow by 3.3 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026. These numbers reflect shifts in the global economic landscape, with oil production adjustments playing a key role in influencing near-term growth expectations.

A December report from Mastercard Economics also highlighted the robust expansion of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector. The analysis forecast that the Kingdom’s GDP will grow by 3.7 percent year on year in 2025, largely driven by increased non-oil activities.

The Mastercard report added that economic diversification efforts will remain a priority in 2025, with the government leveraging its strong fiscal position to finance infrastructure development and new investment opportunities.


Trump to reduce impact of auto tariffs, commerce secretary says

Updated 29 April 2025
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Trump to reduce impact of auto tariffs, commerce secretary says

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s administration will move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs on Tuesday by alleviating some duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars and keeping tariffs on cars made abroad from piling on top of other ones, officials said.

“President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement provided by the White House.

“This deal is a major victory for the President’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically, while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.”

The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the development, said the move meant car companies paying tariffs would not be charged other levies, such as those on steel and aluminum, and that reimbursements would be given for such tariffs that were already paid.

A White House official confirmed the report and indicated the move would be made official on Tuesday.

Trump is traveling to Michigan on Tuesday to commemorate his first 100 days in office, a period that the Republican president has used to upend the global economic order.

The move to soften the effects of auto levies is the latest by his administration to show some flexibility on tariffs, which have sown turmoil in financial markets, created uncertainty for businesses and sparked fears of a sharp economic slowdown.

Automakers said earlier on Monday they were expecting Trump to issue relief from the auto tariffs ahead of his trip to Michigan, which is home to the Detroit Three automakers and more than 1,000 major auto suppliers.

General Motors, CEO Mary Barra and Ford CEO Jim Farley praised the planned changes. “We believe the president’s leadership is helping level the playing field for companies like GM and allowing us to invest even more in the US economy,” Barra said.

Farley said the changes “will help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers and consumers.”

Last week, a coalition of US auto industry groups urged Trump not to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts, warning they would cut vehicle sales and raise prices.

Trump had said earlier he planned to impose tariffs of 25 percent on auto parts no later than May 3.

“Tariffs on auto parts will scramble the global automotive supply chain and set off a domino effect that will lead to higher auto prices for consumers, lower sales at dealerships and will make servicing and repairing vehicles both more expensive and less predictable,” the industry groups said in the letter.

The letter from the groups representing GM, Toyota Motor, Volkswagen, Hyundai and others, was sent to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce’s Lutnick.

“Most auto suppliers are not capitalized for an abrupt tariff induced disruption. Many are already in distress and will face production stoppages, layoffs and bankruptcy,” the letter added, noting “it only takes the failure of one supplier to lead to a shutdown of an automaker’s production line.” 


IMF Executive Board to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan’s loan programs

Updated 29 April 2025
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IMF Executive Board to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan’s loan programs

  • IMF board’s approval of staff-level agreement with Pakistan will pave the way for disbursement of $1 billion
  • Islamabad also secured a new loan program with IMF in March to help build resistance against natural disasters 

KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board will meet on May 9 to review its staff-level agreement with Pakistan for an ongoing $7bn bailout program and a new climate resilience loan scheme with Islamabad, the global lender said on its website recently. 

The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan in March on the first review of the country’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new $1.3 billion loan arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Pakistan secured the EFF program last year and deems it crucial to escape a prolonged economic crisis. The staff-level agreement, once approved by the IMF Executive Board, will pave the way for an immediate disbursement of about $1 billion for Pakistan.

The RSF, on the other hand, will support Pakistan’s efforts in building resilience to natural disasters, enhancing budget and investment planning to promote climate adaptation, improve the efficient and productive use of water. It will also help in strengthening Pakistan’s climate information architecture to improve the disclosure of climate risks and align energy sector reforms with mitigation targets.

“May 9, 2025, Pakistan-first review under the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and request for an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility,” the IMF wrote on its website on Friday, disclosing its Executive Board’s schedule. 

Pakistan has been prone to natural disasters and consistently ranks among the most severely affected countries in the world due to climate change effects. Unusually heavy rains and melting of glaciers in 2022 triggered flash floods across the country, killing over 1,700 people and inflicting losses over $33 billion. 

The IMF program has played a key role in stabilizing Pakistan’s battered economy, which has made some gains in recent months, most notably a reduced inflation rate. The government has said the country is on course for a long-term recovery, while Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has vowed Islamabad will continue to implement financial reforms mandated by the international lender. 

Pakistan secured the $7 billion loan program in September 2024 as it attempted to consolidate its economy since averting a default in 2023. Islamabad has since undertaken several reforms to reduce public debt, maintain low inflation, improve energy sector viability, and accelerate growth.

Pakistan hopes to achieve further economic progress by increasing its exports and attracting foreign investment from regional allies, particularly the Gulf countries. Islamabad has signed memoranda of association (MoUs) regarding trade and investment worth billions of dollars with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, China and other countries in recent months. 


Oil Updates — crude falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook

Updated 29 April 2025
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Oil Updates — crude falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook

SINGAPORE: Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, the world’s two biggest economies.

Brent crude futures fell by 78 cents, or 1.18 percent, to $65.08 per barrel by 10:49 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 75 cents, or 1.21 percent, to $61.30 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday.

“Markets are closely monitoring the US-China trade negotiations, understanding that deteriorating trade relations between the world’s two largest economies could lead the global economy toward a recession,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“The lack of confidence in future demand and the absence of concrete signals for demand revival in mainland China will continue to overshadow oil prices.”

US President Donald Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all US imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against US imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts.

Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year.

Meanwhile, several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week.

“A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production,” oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note.

US crude oil stockpiles also likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday.

Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on US oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.


PIF’s AviLease secures investment-grade ratings from Moody’s, Fitch

Updated 29 April 2025
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PIF’s AviLease secures investment-grade ratings from Moody’s, Fitch

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s AviLease has secured investment-grade corporate credit ratings from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, as the global aircraft lessor continues to expand its portfolio and strategic role within the Kingdom’s aviation sector.

Owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, AviLease announced it received a Baa2 rating with a stable outlook from Moody’s and a BBB rating with a stable outlook from Fitch.

The two agencies highlighted AviLease’s high-quality portfolio of new-technology aircraft with a strong credit mix, alongside its robust balance sheet and growth trajectory.

They noted that the company is expected to become one of the largest players in the global leasing industry by 2030.

“The ratings open the door for even greater financial flexibility, as we will be able to tap into the unsecured debt capital markets,” Edward O’Byrne, CEO of AviLease, said in a press release.

He continued: “Achieving investment-grade ratings in under three years since our establishment is a remarkable feat, and we believe it positions AviLease within a select group of lessors in the industry in record time.”

The ratings also recognize AviLease’s strategic role in supporting PIF’s aviation sector initiatives under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

“These ratings will enable AviLease to access global capital markets to finance its business strategies, positioning itself at the forefront of the aircraft leasing industry, in complete alignment with the National Aviation Strategy and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030,” Fahad Al-Saif, chairman of AviLease, said.


Saudi ministers highlight real estate and urban-planning successes under Vision 2030

Updated 29 April 2025
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Saudi ministers highlight real estate and urban-planning successes under Vision 2030

  • Housing minister Majid Alhogail praises accomplishments including development of the Khuzam modern-housing suburb on the outskirts of Riyadh
  • ‘We have worked in the municipal and housing sector to redefine the city as a balanced, green, smart environment that meets needs and inspires ambition for residents,’ he says

RIYADH: Ministers on Monday showcased the achievements so far within Saudi Arabia’s real estate and housing sector since the launch in 2016 of Vision 2030, the Kingdom’s plan for national development and diversification, and the effects it is having on future strategies.

Housing minister Majid Alhogail highlighted in particular his ministry’s achievements over the past year, including the development of the Khuzam modern-housing suburb on the outskirts of Riyadh.

“This model is one of the examples that greatly helped in changing the concept of housing into a living environment,” he said.

“Last year was a leader in many achievements, investments, industry and logistics services, where the municipal sector plays a significant and influential role.”

The municipal and housing sector accounts for 14 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product, the housing sector provides more than 500,000 jobs, and more than 300,000 entities operate under the supervision of the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing, Alhogail said.

He also noted the growth of investment in the real estate market, adding: “The construction and real estate sector contributed more than 16 percent of total foreign investment flows, reflecting investors’ confidence in the readiness of cities and the regulatory environment we are continuously developing.”

He also highlighted the important need to create a balanced environment within modern smart cities that can better serve the needs of citizens and enhance their quality of life, and said this is something to which he is fully committed.

“We have worked in the municipal and housing sector to redefine the city as a balanced, green, smart environment that meets needs and inspires ambition for residents,” he said as he stressed the importance of ensuring cities are designed for the benefit of people rather than for cars.

“By the end of this year, we also aim to achieve a 61 percent increase in residents’ access to public spaces within an 800-meter radius.

“Regarding quality of life in the municipal sector, we have been keen since day one to ensure that the city is not just a place to live but rather a complete space for life.”

Six Saudi cities are now officially ranked as smart cities by the IMD World Smart Cities Index, Alhogail noted — AlUla. Makkah, Madinah, Riyadh, Jeddah and Alkhobar — reflecting the achievements within the sector.

His ministry considers effective urban planning as the starting point for the development and improvement of municipal spaces, he continued. This was also reflected by the launch last month of the Saudi Architecture Characters Map, guided by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which aims to enrich the urban landscape through the celebration of 19 distinct architectural styles inspired by the Kingdom’s cultural and natural heritage.

The Saudi media minister, Salman Aldosari, also spoke about the achievements to date within the sector and noted that some objectives were met ahead of schedule.

Acknowledging the challenges and opportunities arising from Vision 2030, he said that Saudi ambitions have surpassed the obstacles, adding: “The year 2024 (was) the year of records.”