WEF panel offers first impressions of Donald Trump’s new order

Special WEF panel offers first impressions of Donald Trump’s new order
L-to-R: Sam Jacobs, Editor-in-Chief, TIME; Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National; Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation; Patrick Foulis, Foreign Editor, The Economist; speaking in First Impressions: Inauguration Day session at the WEF Annual Meeting 2025 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. (WEF)
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Updated 21 January 2025
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WEF panel offers first impressions of Donald Trump’s new order

WEF panel offers first impressions of Donald Trump’s new order
  • Experts contemplate how the president’s ‘America First’ doctrine will mesh with the WEF’s globalist ethos
  • Davos panelists predict a lighter touch on tech regulation, more protectionism, and greater unpredictability

LONDON: While world leaders, business titans, and policymakers gathered in Davos, Switzerland, for the opening of the World Economic Forum’s 55th annual meeting on Monday, all eyes were on Washington, where Donald Trump was being inaugurated for his second term.

This dual spectacle underscored the contrast between two seemingly opposing worldviews: Trump’s “America First” doctrine and the WEF’s globalist vision of “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.”

The timing of Trump’s inauguration on the forum’s opening day seemed almost poetic. Experts noted the symbolic clash between the Davos elite, often described as the architects of a “new world order,” and Trump’s unapologetic brand of populism.

“Thank you to the World Economic Forum for having us, but most of all for having an exquisite sense of humor by asking us to say what’s going to happen in the Trump administration,” Sam Jacobs, editor-in-chief of Time magazine, quipped during the forum’s first panel, titled “First Impressions: Inauguration Day.”

This year’s conference invites participants to explore ways to tackle shared challenges like climate change, technology, and economic inequality through global collaboration. Yet, as economics writer Kate Andrews observes, it is “an idea that means little to nothing if the world’s largest economy — and leader in AI development — is not on board.”

Indeed, Trump’s policies are expected to pivot sharply from the multilateralism championed by the WEF. He has already signaled a return to “America First” economics, emphasizing trade protectionism and other barriers, which are likely to reverberate across the global economy.

Adding to this is his close alignment with US tech leaders, including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Tesla and X owner Elon Musk, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Their collective support suggests that Trump’s new administration will embrace a less regulated approach to tech innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, diverging from the more cautious frameworks championed by both former president Joe Biden and the WEF.

“I think the technology race is one that is going to be instrumental in that economic conversation,” Mina Al-Oraibi, editor-in-chief of UAE’s The National, told the panel, highlighting Trump’s likely focus on countering China’s influence in tech and trade.

Still, not all experts see Trump’s policies as a stark departure from those of his predecessor. Patrick Foulis, foreign editor of The Economist, noted that Trump’s strategies could echo some elements of Biden’s economic doctrine.

“Trump, in one sense, represents continuity, and in some sense, he’s actually the intellectual author of the Biden policy. But I think we have very, very solid grounds to doubt his ability to apply over a sustained period of time that kind of strategy,” he said during the panel.

The goal, Foulis argues, is for Trump to “exert more influence over the world economy,” relying less on incentives and more on coercive measures like debt manipulation, tariffs, and tech controls.

In what some view as an olive branch, WEF President and CEO Borge Brende said Donald Trump planned to deliver a 45-minute video address to the forum on Thursday.

The complex relationship between Trump and the WEF remains a study in contrasts. While Trump’s “America First” doctrine appears to run counter to the WEF’s globalist ethos, his presence — or lack thereof — consistently draws attention.

Despite ideological differences, Trump’s influence remains too significant for the forum to overlook. His pivotal role in brokering the recent Gaza ceasefire underscores his relevance on the global stage.

“We’re meeting here in Davos with a ceasefire finally in place in Gaza and after a terrible, devastating war over 15 months. It has changed the region, and in some ways, it changed the world. And Trump 2.0 actually facilitated the ceasefire,” Al-Oraibi said, adding that the “Trump factor” was instrumental in bringing a deal that the Biden administration failed to pull off.




Newly sworn-in President Donald Trump takes part in a signing ceremony at the White House. (Reuters)

“Trump clearly said there had to be a ceasefire before inauguration. And that moment crystallizes what people are expecting under a Trump administration. That comes with many lessons from its first stint at the White House, but also lessons learned about what can be possible in the Middle East.”

Over the past year, the Middle East has experienced seismic changes, including Hezbollah’s diminished influence in Lebanon and the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria. Experts predict that while Trump’s foreign policy will in some ways build on Biden’s, the focus will be more on targeted economic strategies rather than broad hegemonic goals.

“I see the Trumpian agenda essentially as a more comprehensive and forceful expression of American power on a much more limited geographic scope,” said Foulis.

While Trump’s foreign policy appears increasingly selective and driven by economic interests rather than purely hegemonic ambitions, Al-Oraibi believes the Middle East will remain central to US priorities, particularly as attention on Gaza and Palestine shows little sign of waning.

“The fact that the ceasefire was put in place just before the inauguration of Donald Trump shows that they realize this is not something that they want hanging over their heads from day one, but it is a long road ahead,” she said, adding that the administration may want to take advantage of the momentum to bring about a solution to the Palestinian question and possibly promote a two-state solution.

“The one thing that is clear is the US remains the most important superpower,” she said. “Yet there’s still so much that can go wrong.”

Besides foreign and economic policy, the panel also explored how Trump’s new administration might handle energy and climate issues — both pillars of forum discussions. While a rollback of Biden’s green policies is expected, experts believe the energy transition has become too entrenched to reverse completely.

“If for Trump, that energy transition can be reframed as a nationalist cause, so something that benefits the American economy, I don’t think he’s going to oppose it,” said Jacobs.

As speculation builds around the consequences of Trump’s return to the Oval Office, many experts caution that lessons from his first term may only partially apply this time around.

What is certain, according to Jacobs, is that a Trump 2.0 presidency promises to be “200 times more unpredictable, and more volatile than the first term,” emphasizing that the real focus should be on “where points of tension emerge” rather than specific policies.

For the WEF, Trump’s presence offers both challenges and opportunities. As the world grapples with interconnected crises, Davos prides itself on providing a platform for critical dialogue. The stakes are high, however, and Trump’s return to power adds another layer of complexity to an already transformative moment in world history.

 


Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges up to close at 11,626 

Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges up to close at 11,626 
Updated 20 April 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges up to close at 11,626 

Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges up to close at 11,626 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Sunday, gaining 73.62 points, or 0.64 percent, to close at 11,626.60. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR3.57 billion ($953 million), as 199 of the stocks advanced and 37 retreated.    

Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, gained 264.47 points, or 0.92 percent, to close at 28,978.19. This comes as 46 of the listed stocks advanced while 34 retreated.    

The MSCI Tadawul Index gained 5.14 points, or 0.35 percent, to close at 1,474.53.     

The best-performing stock of the day was Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund, whose share price surged 10.00 percent to SR7.26.   

Other top performers included Saudi Cable Co., whose share price rose 9.90 percent to SR135.40 as well as Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., whose share price increased 9.89 percent to SR11.56. 

Riyadh Cement Co. led the declines, dropping 3.15 percent to SR33.80.

Leejam Sports Co. slipped 2.03 percent to SR135.20, while Almoosa Health Co. edged down 1.21 percent to SR163.20. 

On the announcement front, Almarai Co. reported a first-quarter net profit of SR731.19 million for 2025, up 5.62 percent year on year, driven by a 6 percent rise in revenue, according to a Tadawul filing.

The company noted that higher energy costs partially offset the earnings growth. Almarai shares closed 1.90 percent higher at SR53.30. 

Jarir Marketing Co. posted a net profit of SR217.3 million in the first quarter of 2025, down 0.91 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to a Tadawul filing. 

The marginal decline came despite a 2.7 percent increase in both sales and gross profit, as well as a rise in other income, with higher selling and marketing expenses weighing on earnings. 

Its shares closed flat at SR12.82. 

Altharwah Albashariyyah Co. signed a binding agreement to acquire 100 percent of Amjad Watan through a mix of cash and share issuance, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, the company said in a Tadawul filing. 

The deal includes SR7 million in cash, 95,804 shares worth SR5 million, and 536,501 conditional shares valued at SR28 million, to be transferred upon meeting performance targets. 

Shares of Altharwah Albashariyyah closed 3.57 percent lower at SR46.05. 


Gulf, China exchanges sign deal to boost commodity ties

Gulf, China exchanges sign deal to boost commodity ties
Updated 20 April 2025
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Gulf, China exchanges sign deal to boost commodity ties

Gulf, China exchanges sign deal to boost commodity ties

JEDDAH: Relations between the Middle East and China’s derivatives markets are set to deepen following a new cooperation agreement signed between the Gulf Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Under the agreement, GME — the Middle East’s leading international energy and commodities futures exchange — and SHFE — one of China’s primary commodity trading platforms — will collaborate on a range of strategic initiatives.

These include joint product development, market research, the exchange of insights on market trends, and investor education efforts, according to a joint statement released by both exchanges.

“This partnership is a key step toward strengthening alignment between China and the Gulf in commodities trading,” said Raid Al-Salami, managing director of GME.

“We value our cooperation with SHFE and look forward to the opportunities this agreement will unlock for both sides.”

The agreement comes on the heels of a strong performance year for GME. In January, the exchange reported a 12 percent increase in total trading volume for 2024, reaching 1.32 million contracts — up from 1.18 million the previous year. Front-month contract volumes surged 20 percent to a record 959,565 contracts, while total physical exposure rose by 11 percent, reflecting GME’s commitment to enhancing market accessibility and supporting sustainable growth.

Formerly known as the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, GME has a long-standing reputation as a key player in the region’s commodities sector. Established with the vision of creating internationally accessible derivatives markets for Middle East commodities, the exchange has continued to evolve in scope and ambition.

A major milestone came in 2024 when the Saudi Tadawul Group acquired a third strategic stake in the exchange. This acquisition led to a rebranding from DME to GME, signaling a renewed focus on building out commodity markets in Saudi Arabia and across the wider GCC as part of a long-term strategic roadmap.

With this new partnership, GME and SHFE are poised to play a central role in shaping the future of commodity trading between two of the world’s most dynamic economic regions.


Saudi Arabia advances in 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index

Saudi Arabia advances in 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index
Updated 20 April 2025
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Saudi Arabia advances in 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index

Saudi Arabia advances in 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has made notable progress in the 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index, with its score rising by 17.5 percent, placing it among the fastest-improving economies out of the 55 countries evaluated.

According to the 13th edition of the index, published by the US Chamber of Commerce, the Kingdom now ranks 40th globally—a reflection of the substantial reforms driven by its Vision 2030 strategy. These reforms aim to enhance intellectual property protection, foster innovation, and support the growth of a knowledge-based economy.

Since 2019, Saudi Arabia’s overall score has increased from 36.6 percent to 53.7 percent in 2025, marking a cumulative improvement of over 40 percent in just six years.

This progress stems from a comprehensive transformation of the nation’s IP ecosystem, including the strengthening of legal frameworks and enforcement mechanisms.

Key milestones noted in the report include the extension of design protection from 10 to 15 years, the establishment of a specialized prosecution office for IP-related cases, and the launch of advanced online enforcement tools for copyrights and trademarks.

These developments highlight Saudi Arabia’s growing institutional capacity and ongoing regulatory modernization, led by the Saudi Authority for Intellectual Property.

The report also highlighted significant advancements in public awareness initiatives, inter-agency collaboration, and Saudi Arabia’s accession to key international intellectual property treaties. These developments have helped align the Kingdom’s IP framework more closely with global standards.

Notably, Saudi Arabia achieved higher scores in enforcement, international treaty participation, and the efficiency of its copyright enforcement system. These improvements reinforce the Kingdom’s ambition to become a regional and global center for innovation and creativity.

By fostering a more transparent and dependable intellectual property environment, Saudi Arabia is attracting increased foreign investment while also empowering local entrepreneurs to develop innovative ideas, products, and technologies.

The US Chamber of Commerce commended the Kingdom’s efforts to institutionalize intellectual property rights as a core component of its economic diversification strategy, positioning Saudi Arabia as a model among emerging markets.

Meanwhile, the UAE also performed strongly in the 2025 index, ranking 26th globally with an overall score of 60.66 percent. The UAE was praised for its robust patent and trademark protections, consistent judicial enforcement, and strong commitment to digital transformation.


Oman property market cools in February as deals drop 8.3% 

Oman property market cools in February as deals drop 8.3% 
Updated 20 April 2025
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Oman property market cools in February as deals drop 8.3% 

Oman property market cools in February as deals drop 8.3% 

RIYADH: Oman’s property market saw a dip in activity in February, with total real estate transactions falling 8.3 percent year on year to 362.3 million Omani rials ($940.7 million), official data showed. 

According to figures from the National Centre for Statistics and Information, this compares to 394.9 million rials recorded during the same period in 2024, Oman News Agency reported.   

The moderation in activity comes amid tighter global financial conditions, shifting investor sentiment, and a gradual normalization of real estate markets across the Gulf following the post-pandemic surge in demand and pricing. 

Despite the broader slowdown in Oman’s real estate market, revenue from legal transaction fees rose 5.9 percent to 12.3 million rials, up from 11.6 million rials a year earlier. 

The value of sale contracts dropped 18.3 percent to 160.3 million rials, while the number of contracts declined 3.2 percent to 11,177, down from 11,543 in February 2024.  

Meanwhile, mortgage transactions edged up 1.8 percent to 200.1 million rials across 3,416 contracts, compared to 196.5 million rials across 2,989 contracts a year earlier. 

Exchange contracts dropped to 266, valued at 1.9 million rials, down from 299 contracts worth 2.2 million rials in the same period last year.  

In Oman’s real estate market, swap contracts—also known as real estate exchange agreements—are arrangements that enable two parties to trade property ownership with engaging in cash transaction.

The number of property titles issued rose slightly by 0.8 percent to 39,704, while those issued to Gulf Cooperation Council citizens increased by 7.1 percent to 227, compared to 212 in February 2024. 

The cooling follows a strong 2024, when Oman’s real estate sector surged 29.5 percent, with total transactions reaching 3.3 billion rials, driven by foreign investment and government-led reforms.  

During the first nine months of that year, the sector contributed 820.7 million rials to gross domestic product, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, as reported by Oman News Agency in February. 

The sector’s performance reflects broader regional momentum as Gulf countries press ahead with economic diversification strategies. 

In Saudi Arabia, real estate prices rose 3.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024. Dubai saw a 30 percent jump in residential sales to $32.4 billion during the same period, while Qatar recorded 3,548 real estate transactions in 2024 totaling $3.97 billion. 

To support the sector, Oman has eased foreign ownership rules and introduced tax incentives aimed at attracting investment and boosting development across the sultanate. 


US tariff escalation puts $22bn of Arab exports at risk, says ESCWA report

US tariff escalation puts $22bn of Arab exports at risk, says ESCWA report
Updated 20 April 2025
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US tariff escalation puts $22bn of Arab exports at risk, says ESCWA report

US tariff escalation puts $22bn of Arab exports at risk, says ESCWA report

RIYADH: Arab countries could see up to $22 billion in non-oil exports affected by sweeping new US tariffs, with six economies facing the most direct disruption, according to a new analysis. 

A report by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia said the measures, imposed on April 2, include a blanket 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports, with rates climbing as high as 42 percent for countries with trade surpluses. 

While oil remains exempt, the duties now cover a broad range of industrial goods such as textiles, fertilizers, aluminium and electronics, effectively nullifying trade preferences previously granted to Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Oman. 

ESCWA said that exports from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia are expected to be “significantly affected by the new tariff hikes,” with Jordan facing the highest exposure due to its reliance on the US market. 

“A country having a higher share of non-oil exports to the United States is expected to be directly impacted,” the report stated. 

“The direct impact is particularly high for countries where exports to the United States constitute a major share of their total global exports.” 

While some Arab countries like Egypt and Morocco initially appeared well-positioned to benefit from trade diversion away from heavily tariffed economies like China and India, that potential has faded following a policy shift by Washington.  

“With the pause announced on 9 April for most countries, excluding China, the trade diversion effect in favor of most Arab countries is likely to disappear,” ESCWA noted. 

ESCWA noted that the impact will vary considerably across the region. Five other countries — Algeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — are likely to see smaller effects, while eleven Arab countries are projected to experience negligible exposure due to limited or no exports to the US. 

These include Iraq, Kuwait, and Libya, as well as several least developed countries such as Somalia, Sudan, and the Comoros. 

While direct trade impacts will be concentrated among a handful of countries, the broader Arab region may still suffer from indirect effects tied to global demand conditions. 

ESCWA warned that reduced consumption from key partners such as China and the EU — both major buyers of Arab goods — could negatively affect export performance across the board. 

The EU accounts for 72 percent of Tunisia’s exports and 68 percent of Morocco’s, while China purchases 22 percent of the GCC’s oil and chemicals.  

Preliminary macroeconomic modeling for 2025 indicates moderate net impacts for the Agadir Agreement countries — Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia.   

These nations are expected to see declines in gross domestic product, exports and investment, though some mitigation may occur through limited trade redirection.   

GCC economies, by contrast, are projected to experience a smaller aggregate effect, with real GDP declining slightly.   

However, the report suggests that losses in oil revenue, tied to falling prices and reduced global demand, could weigh more heavily on fiscal outcomes.  

The simulation assumes full implementation of the April 2 US tariffs and corresponding retaliatory measures from China announced on April 5.   

Based on this scenario, real GDP in the Agadir countries is projected to fall by 0.41 percent, exports by 1.41 percent, and total investment by 0.38 percent.   

The GCC region is expected to register a GDP loss of just 0.10 percent, reflecting lower exposure to US tariffs but higher vulnerability to oil market fluctuations.  

The fiscal dimension of the shock is also becoming more apparent. Rising global uncertainty has already driven up borrowing costs for many Arab economies.   

Between April 2 and April 9, 10-year bond yields increased by 36 basis points in Arab middle-income countries and by 32 basis points in the GCC.  

The impact is particularly acute in debt-heavy MICs. ESCWA estimates that Egypt will face an additional $56 million in interest payments in 2025, Morocco $39 million, Jordan $14 million, and Tunisia $5 million.   

These increases, while modest in dollar terms, represent a non-trivial strain on public finances.  

The Arab region’s trade relationship with the US has already been weakening.  Total exports from Arab countries to the US dropped from $91 billion in 2013 to $48 billion in 2024, primarily due to the decline in American crude oil imports.   

However, non-oil exports have grown steadily, from $14 billion in 2013 to $22 billion last year, underscoring the increasing relevance of industrial and value-added goods in Arab export profiles.  

In light of these developments, ESCWA is urging Arab governments to respond with coordinated policy actions.   

Recommended measures include accelerating regional economic integration, pursuing carve-outs under existing trade agreements, and recalibrating free trade arrangements to avoid preference erosion.   

The agency also emphasized the need for countries to strengthen fiscal buffers and diversify trade and investment partnerships.  

As the geopolitical and trade environment grows more uncertain, Arab economies are being advised to prepare for continued volatility.   

“Arab countries must recognize the diverse, and sometimes contradictory effects of the United States tariff escalation,” ESCWA stated, warning that policy inaction could expose vulnerable economies to prolonged disruptions.