PARIS: They warned it could happen: a world of surging nationalism, stalling economic development and the unravelling of decades of international cooperation on climate change and other global challenges.

Long before Donald Trump lurched away from diplomatic norms and the international rules-based order, scientists mapped out different potential futures to understand the possible implications for greenhouse gas emissions.

Developed a decade ago, five of these "pathways" became crucial to the work of the United Nations' IPCC climate expert panel.

These are not predictions for the 21st century. Rather, they envision what could happen with various societal changes including for trade, economic development, technological innovation and global population.

The most optimistic narrative foresees sustainable growth and improved equality. A second "middle-of-the-road" scenario is an extension of current trends.

The third is a world riven by rivalries, a fourth is blighted by increasing inequality, and the fifth assumes supercharged economic growth grounded in expanding fossil fuel use.

Keywan Riahi, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, who coordinated the development of the so-called Shared Socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), said the world has largely developed in line with the third scenario in recent years.

While it is certainly not a perfect fit, what we see now "is a much more fragmented world," Riahi told AFP. "Collaboration is more difficult, economic development is actually also not so optimistic."


Scientists' original description of the SSP3 scenario was: "A resurgent nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, and regional conflicts push countries to increasingly focus on domestic or, at most, regional issues."

This "rocky road" is arguably the worst of all the hypothetical futures.

Planet-heating emissions are second only to economic expansion driven by oil, gas and coal.

But the fractured SSP3 world ranks first when it comes to damages from climate change, showing the largest population boom, and the weakest economic growth.

This scenario "reflects a current strain of populist isolationist politics that is ascendent today", climate scientist Zeke Hausfather noted in a recent newsletter post.

In 2021, Hausfather got blowback for calling SSP3 "Trump World". But "the actions in his second term around energy and trade seem to be playing out much more closely to SSP3 than other pathways", he said.

The US has ditched the Paris climate treaty, turned its back on global cooperation on science, trade and health, and eviscerating its international development budget.

Washington has lambasted UN sustainable development goals, especially related to climate change and women's rights.

Domestically, the world's second biggest carbon polluter has undermined progress on low-carbon technology, cancelled climate research, and even stymied weather data collection.

World leaders have expressed their disquiet.

"The global economy thrived on a foundation of openness and multilateralism underpinned by US leadership... but today it is fracturing," said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in late May.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the global trade system in place for 80 years "over", and China's Xi Jinping urged the preservation of "the international order based on international law, and global fairness and justice".


There are important ways in which today's reality differs from the hypothetical SSP3 world.

World population projections are significantly lower, for instance.

And the development of climate tech has been "much more successful", Riahi said.

A dramatic drop in the cost of solar and wind power, as well as electric vehicles and batteries, has boosted the growth of low-carbon technologies.

Carbon dioxide emissions have also slowed, while predicted warming for the end of the century is lower than a decade ago -- albeit still reaching catastrophic levels.

Scientists are currently updating SSP projections and crafting a new set of climate narratives.

They have much to unpack.

Riahi said that even if there was a "complete collapse of climate policies globally", the previous worst-case emissions projections will likely not materialise because clean energy has become so cheap.

At the same time, he said, the world will almost certainly overshoot the Paris deal's aspirational goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the coming years.

This has forced scientists to consider a new set of questions.

What is the new best-case scenario for bending emissions down to zero?

If current policies persist, will emissions stay high for a longer period, causing temperatures to keep rising in the coming decades?

"What are the implications climatically of this high overshoot, which is unfortunately a more and more likely scenario if you extrapolate what we see at the moment?" said Riahi.

SEOUL: South Korea’s new President Lee Jae-myung vowed Wednesday to restart dormant talks with North Korea and bolster a trilateral partnership with the US and Japan, as he laid out key policy goals for his single, five-year term.

Lee, who rose from childhood poverty to become South Korea’s leading liberal politician vowing to fight inequality and corruption, formally began his term earlier Wednesday, hours after winning a snap election that was triggered in April by the removal of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol over his ill-fated imposition of martial law late last year.

In his inaugural address at the National Assembly, Lee said that his government will deal with North Korean nuclear threats and its potential military aggressions with “strong deterrence” based on the solid South Korea-US military alliance. But he said he would “open a communication channel with North Korea and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula through talks and cooperation.”

He said he’ll pursue pragmatic diplomacy with neighboring countries and boost trilateral Seoul-Washington-Tokyo cooperation based on the robust South Korea-US alliance.

“Through pragmatic diplomacy based on national interests, we will turn the crisis posed by the major shift in global economic and security landscapes into an opportunity to maximize our national interests,” Lee said.

Security and economic challenges lie ahead

It was unclear whether Lee’s election would cause any major, immediate shift in South Korea’s foreign policy. Lee, previously accused by critics of tilting toward China and North Korea and away from the US and Japan, has recently repeatedly stressed South Korea’s alliance with the US as the foundation of its foreign policy and avoided any contentious remarks that would raise questions on his views on the US and Japan.

“We’ll have to now see if the pressures of office will cause Lee Jae-myung to govern from the center — at least when it comes to matters of national security and the alliance with the United States,” said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The toughest external challenges awaiting Lee are US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and North Korea’s expanding military partnerships with Russia. But experts earlier said whoever becomes president can’t do much to secure major progress in South Korea’s favor on those issues.

During his inauguration speech, Lee didn’t directly mention trade issues with the US

US and Japan react

The US and Japan said they congratulated Lee’s election and expressed their commitments to developing three-way cooperation.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he wants to hold summit talks with Lee “as early as possible,” saying he hopes to further promote bilateral ties, both public and commercial. The US State Department said that Seoul and Washington share “an ironclad commitment” to the alliance grounded in their mutual defense treaty, shared values and deep economic ties.

It’s unclear how North Korea would react to Lee’s speech, as it has shunned any talks with South Korea since 2019. North Korea in recent years has supplied weapons and troops to support Russia’s war against Ukraine, and South Korea, the US and their partners suspect Russia might in return transfer high-tech technologies to North Korea to help it perfect its nuclear weapons program.

Russia’s Tass news agency said Wednesday that one of President Vladimir Putin’s top security officials, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, has arrived in Pyongyang for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in the latest sign of the countries’ alignment over Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Lee said revitalizing a slowing domestic economy would be his top priority and that his government would immediately launch an emergency task force to wage a “head-on battle” against the threats of recession. He also promised more aggressive government spending to help spur economic activity.

South Korea’s central bank last week cut its key interest rate and sharply lowered its growth outlook for 2025 to 0.8 percent, as it moved to counter Trump’s tariff hikes and weak domestic demand worsened by recent political turmoil.

South Korea still faces political divide

Lee also called for unity to address the country’s stark political divide deepened after Yoon’s martial law debacle, saying that he will “answer the people’s solemn call to let hope bloom over deep and painful wounds.” Lee still promised a thorough investigation into the circumstances surrounding Yoon’s martial law imposition, describing it as a “rebellion that seized people’s sovereignty with arms.”

Yoon and some of his top military and police officers already stand trial on high-stakes rebellion charges in connection with martial law. Lee’s push to bring those involved in Yoon’s martial law stunt accountable has subsequently caused speculations among his opponents that he would launch political revenge against Yoon associates and senior prosecutors whom he previously accused of fabricating evidence to initiate criminal charges against him.

Lee faces five trials on corruption and other allegations, but experts say those trials will likely stop during his term because the South Korean constitution gives a sitting president immunity from most criminal prosecutions.

Lee also reiterated his campaign vows to reduce inequality and pledged to address the imbalance between the greater Seoul capital area and less developed regions. He said that “the polarization fueled by inequality is now hindering further growth.”

Lee’s term began immediately without the usual two-month transition period after the National Election Commission formally confirmed his election victory.