What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy

Analysis What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
Iran attacked the largest US base in Qatar on June 23, a day after Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, despite pledging to stay out of the Israel-Iran war. (AFP)
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Updated 24 June 2025
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What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy

What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
  • Efforts in Geneva to restart diplomacy now hang in the balance, with Iran and the US hardening positions after recent strikes
  • Analysts warn that without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiralling into a wider war

LONON/DUBAI: The Iranian missile attack which was intercepted by Qatar on Monday night when it launched missiles against US troops stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base comes as a major setback for peace in the region.

As Iranian missiles lit up the sky over Doha in a retaliatory strike targeting the US military, a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has now drawn in the US, seemed further away than ever, with Tehran appearing to wash its hands of further nuclear talks.

Although no casualties were reported at Al-Udeid Air Base — the largest US base in the region — Iran’s counterattack is likely to invite additional American strikes and further regional escalation.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned the attack on Qatari sovereignty. The Saudi foreign ministry lambasted Iran for its “unjustifiable” attack, offering to deploy “all its capabilities” to support Doha.

Since the Israeli-Iran conflict dramatically escalated over the weekend, the mixed global response to Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is testing the limits of modern diplomacy and exposing deep divisions among major powers.




This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

What most seem to agree on is that while diplomacy is on the decline, it could have been the solution.

Experts say the fractured international reaction to the escalation reflects a shifting global order and the erosion of the post-Cold War consensus.

“There is no ‘global response’ to speak of at this moment,” Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News. “This Israel-Iran war is taking place in a fractured geopolitical context.”

He argues that divisions among the US, China and Russia “make it next to impossible to marshal a collective diplomatic effort in the way that the world did in previous eras, like the immediate post-Cold War period of the 1990s.

“That’s why we will continue to see a lot of empty words disconnected from the actions that are actually reshaping the Middle East as we know it.”

On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites including Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran, reportedly killing senior officials, nuclear scientists and civilians. In response, Iran launched “Operation True Promise III,” firing missiles and drones into Israel. Several struck Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities, causing civilian casualties.

Despite initially assuring G7 allies that the US would stay out of the conflict, President Donald Trump reversed course on June 22, ordering B-2 bombers to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with MOP “bunker-buster” bombs — weapons only the US possesses.

Although Trump declared that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, it remains unclear whether Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was destroyed or relocated in time. If material and technical capacity remain, diplomacy may be the only path to prevent Iran from eventually building a nuclear weapon — a goal the regime could now prioritize more urgently.

Even with severe military losses and the effective loss of airspace control, Iran appears undeterred. Hostilities with Israel continue, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against US targets is growing. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that the war will not end until Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is removed from power.




Israeli rescuers search through the rubble at the site of an overnight Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam on June 15, 2025. (AFP)

The US entry into the conflict has triggered a range of diplomatic responses — from enthusiastic support to fierce condemnation. Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision as a “courageous choice” that would “alter history.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, called it an “outrageous, grave and unprecedented violation” of international law, insisting Tehran reserves “all options” to defend its interests.

Iran’s ambassador to the UN demanded an emergency Security Council session and called the strikes “premeditated acts of aggression.”

Russia, a close ally of Iran, “strongly condemned” the US action. Its Foreign Ministry labeled the strikes a “gross violation of international law,” while Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed their impact and provocatively suggested some states might now help Iran obtain nuclear weapons.

China echoed the condemnation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the strikes “seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter,” and warned of regional destabilization.

FASTFACTS

  • China and Russia have condemned US strikes on Iran while the UN and Europe have appealed for deescalation.
  • Analysts say without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiraling into wider war.

Chinese Ambassador to the UN Fu Cong called on Israel to halt hostilities immediately and backed a UN resolution demanding an unconditional ceasefire. Chinese analysts have also warned that the conflict threatens global trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Other voices have called for diplomacy. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “hazardous escalation,” stressing that “military solutions are not viable” and urging a return to negotiations.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — positioning himself as a bridge between the US and Europe — highlighted the danger of the war spreading beyond the region. While stopping short of endorsing the US strikes, he reiterated that Iran must not develop nuclear weapons and called for negotiations to stabilize the region.

European powers had previously been pressing for a deal requiring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, curb its missile program and stop supporting proxy groups. But Iran has rejected a full halt, claiming its enrichment is for peaceful purposes.

With Western diplomacy faltering, regional actors are stepping in. Most Arab states — including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf states — have condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran and are working to deescalate tensions.

Still, these efforts have so far achieved little. Strikes continue, ceasefire mechanisms remain absent and attempts to coordinate sanctions or arms embargoes have stalled.

A narrow diplomatic window may remain. Recent Geneva meetings involving Iranian, US, and European officials showed conditional openness to talks. But the latest US strikes have likely hardened positions.




A plume of heavy smoke and fire rise over an oil refinery in southern Tehran, after it was hit in an overnight Israeli strike, on June 15, 2025. (AFP)

Analysts say the only viable path forward begins with renewed diplomacy, ideally starting with a ceasefire. Yet fundamental disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and widespread distrust leave a comprehensive solution elusive.

Some fear that Israel, emboldened by US support, may escalate its military campaign to seek regime change in Tehran — a move that would risk greater instability across the Middle East, as the world has seen in the recent attack over Qatar. 

Others argue that Iran’s military retaliation is a necessary step before negotiations can resume. However, nobody seems to safely conclude just how far this retaliation will go. 

Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN that without such a response, Iran would lack both international leverage and domestic legitimacy to reenter talks.

Still, he later added: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future.”

With Iran and Israel entrenched and global powers divided, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim. Yet Katulis believes regional “swing states” — such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE — could help shift the dynamic.

“One of the biggest brakes on further escalation lies right in the heart of the Middle East itself,” he said. “The key ‘swing states’ like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could lead more regional collective efforts to avoid further escalation by working publicly and quietly with the main combatants to find pathways toward a diplomatic settlement.”

In geopolitical terms, these “swing states” balance relationships with Washington, Moscow and Beijing — and can influence outcomes through neutrality or engagement. Katulis believes Riyadh, in particular, could help change the calculus.

Right now, he said, Israel and Iran “have more incentives to engage in military action than they do to pursue diplomacy.” But “the key powers in the region like Saudi Arabia could do even more than they are already doing to change the calculus for Israel and Iran.”

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s actions as violations of international law and warned that continued escalation threatens long-term regional stability. The Kingdom has urged the UN Security Council to take meaningful steps to prevent further deterioration and has refused to allow its airspace to be used in military operations — a clear signal of its neutrality and strategic caution.




Israeli first responders gather in front of a building destroyed by an Iranian strike in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025. (AFP)

Looking ahead, the stakes remain dangerously high. Maksad has warned that unchecked escalation could have serious consequences.

“The last step in that escalatory ladder is to go after American bases, whether it is in the GCC, or perhaps even attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20 percent of global energy passes through,” he told CNN.

As the war drags on, the fragmented international response highlights the fragility of global diplomacy and the difficulty of conflict resolution in an increasingly multipolar world.

For Tehran, halting enrichment altogether would not only undermine decades of strategic investment but also damage regime legitimacy. As Maksad put it, Tehran’s “entire prestige rests on enrichment.”

Still, he sees a potential way forward: Focusing not on enrichment itself, but on preventing a weapon. “That,” he said, “opens up the possibility of a negotiated outcome.”

 


28 Palestinians including children killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza

28 Palestinians including children killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza
Updated 8 sec ago
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28 Palestinians including children killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza

28 Palestinians including children killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza
  • Israeli military says that over the past 48 hours, troops struck approximately 250 targets in the Gaza Strip
DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Israeli airstrikes killed at least 28 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, including four children, hospital officials said Saturday.
The children and two women were among at least 13 people who were killed in Deir Al-Balah, in central Gaza, after Israeli airstrikes pounded the area starting late Friday, officials in Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Hospital said. Another four people were killed in strikes near a fuel station, and 15 others died in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, according to Nasser Hospital.
The Israeli military said in a statement that over the past 48 hours, troops struck approximately 250 targets in the Gaza Strip, including militants, booby-trapped structures, weapons storage facilities, anti-tank missile launch posts, sniper posts, tunnels and additional Hamas infrastructure sites. The military did not immediately respond to The Associated Press’ request for comment on the civilian deaths.
Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in their Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and abducted 251. They still hold 50 hostages, less than half of them believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 57,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry, which is under Gaza’s Hamas-run government, doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants in its count. The UN and other international organizations see its figures as the most reliable statistics on war casualties.
US President Donald Trump has said that he is closing in on another ceasefire agreement that would see more hostages released and potentially wind down the war. But after two days of talks this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu there were no signs of a breakthrough.

Syria denies ‘escalatory intentions’ towards Lebanon: sources

Syria denies ‘escalatory intentions’ towards Lebanon: sources
Updated 40 min 41 sec ago
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Syria denies ‘escalatory intentions’ towards Lebanon: sources

Syria denies ‘escalatory intentions’ towards Lebanon: sources
  • A source said the Syrian government considers the issue of Syrian detainees in Lebanese prisons a top priority
  • Syrian authorities have accused Lebanon of procrastination to repatriate its imprisoned nationals

DUBAI: The Syrian government has denied reports that Damascus intends to take escalatory measures against Beirut over the case of Syrian prisoners in Lebanon, sources said on Friday.

A source from Syria’s Ministry of Information said the Syrian government considers the issue of Syrian detainees in Lebanese prisons a top priority, adding that it is committed to resolving it swiftly through official channels between the two countries.

Sources close to the Syrian government were previously quoted by a television channel saying Damascus was considering diplomatic and economic escalation against Beirut.

The source claimed Damascus was considering the escalation over what it described as Lebanon’s disregard to the fate of Syrian detainees in Lebanese prisons, which an unnamed official related to the Syrian information ministry also denied.

Syrian authorities have accused Lebanon of procrastination to repatriate about one third of more than 2,000 of its imprisoned nationals.

The fate of the Syrian prisoners has irritated Damascus given that Lebanon had announced in March that it was ready to repatriate them.


New page opened for Turkiye following PKK disarmament, Erdogan says

New page opened for Turkiye following PKK disarmament, Erdogan says
Updated 12 July 2025
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New page opened for Turkiye following PKK disarmament, Erdogan says

New page opened for Turkiye following PKK disarmament, Erdogan says
  • Today is a new day; a new page has opened in history, Erdogan said
  • Thirty PKK militants burned their weapons at the mouth of a cave in northern Iraq on Friday

ISTANBUL: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that a new page opened for Turkiye following the start of a weapons handover by Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants.

“As of yesterday, the scourge of terrorism has entered the process of ending. Today is a new day; a new page has opened in history. Today, the doors of a great, powerful Turkiye have been flung wide open,” Erdogan said.

Thirty PKK militants burned their weapons at the mouth of a cave in northern Iraq on Friday, marking a symbolic but significant step toward ending a decades-long insurgency against Turkiye.


Gaza truce talks faltering over withdrawal, Palestinian and Israeli sources say

Gaza truce talks faltering over withdrawal, Palestinian and Israeli sources say
Updated 21 min 46 sec ago
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Gaza truce talks faltering over withdrawal, Palestinian and Israeli sources say

Gaza truce talks faltering over withdrawal, Palestinian and Israeli sources say
  • Hamas wants Israel to retreat to lines it held in a previous ceasefire before it renewed its offensive in March
  • US envoy Steve Witkoff, who played a major role in crafting the latest ceasefire proposal, will travel to Doha this week to join discussions

CAIRO/JERUSALEM: Talks aimed at securing a ceasefire in Gaza are stalling over the extent of Israeli forces’ withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave, Palestinian and Israeli sources familiar with the negotiations in Doha said on Saturday.

The indirect talks over a US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire are nonetheless expected to continue, the sources said, despite the latest obstacles in clinching a deal.

A Palestinian source said that Hamas has rejected the withdrawal maps which Israel has proposed, as they would leave around 40 percent of the territory under Israeli control, including all of the southern area of Rafah and further territories in northern and eastern Gaza.

Two Israeli sources said Hamas wants Israel to retreat to lines it held in a previous ceasefire before it renewed its offensive in March.

The Palestinian source said matters regarding aid and guarantees for ending the war were also presenting a challenge, and added that the crisis may be resolved with more US intervention.

The White House said on Monday that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who played a major role in crafting the latest ceasefire proposal, will travel to Doha this week to join discussions there.

Delegations from Israel and Hamas have been in Qatar since Sunday in a renewed push for an agreement which envisages a phased release of hostages, Israeli troop withdrawals and discussions on ending the war entirely.

Hamas has long demanded an end to the war before it would free remaining hostages; Israel has insisted it would end the fighting only when all hostages are released and Hamas is dismantled.

The war began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. At least 20 of the remaining 50 hostages there are believed to still be alive.

Israel’s subsequent campaign against Hamas has since killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities, displaced almost the entire population of more than 2 million people, sparked a humanitarian crisis and left much of the territory in ruins.


‘All our crew are Muslim,’ fearful Red Sea ships tell Houthis

‘All our crew are Muslim,’ fearful Red Sea ships tell Houthis
Updated 12 July 2025
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‘All our crew are Muslim,’ fearful Red Sea ships tell Houthis

‘All our crew are Muslim,’ fearful Red Sea ships tell Houthis
  • Increasingly desperate messages from commercial vessels trying to avoid attack by Yemen militia

LONDON: Commercial ships sailing through the Red Sea are broadcasting increasingly desperate messages on public channels to avoid being attacked by the Houthi militia in Yemen.

One message read “All Crew Muslim,” some included references to an all-Chinese crew and management, others flagged the presence of armed guards on board, and almost all insisted the ships had no connection to Israel.

Maritime security sources said the messages were a sign of growing desperation to avoid attack, but were unlikely to make any difference. Houthi intelligence preparation was “much deeper and forward-leaning,” one source said.

Houthi attacks off Yemen’s coast began in November 2023 in what the group said was in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war. A lull this year ended when they sank two ships last week and killed four crew. Vessels in the fleets of both ships had made calls to Israeli ports in the past year.

“Seafarers are the backbone of global trade, keeping countries supplied with food, fuel and medicine. They should not have to risk their lives to do their job,” the Seafarers' Charity.