In the shadow of Covid-19, calamity grips Afghanistan's peace
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Coronavirus is looming over the destitute political and economic landscape of Afghanistan preceded by a huge trust gap between Taliban and the Afghan government which makes the situation much worse. In simple words, the coronavirus could not have come at a worse time than this. As of April 25, over 1400 confirmed cases of coronavirus with 47 deaths were reported by the ministry of public health. The real cases could be many folds higher owing to the lack of diagnostic centres in Afghanistan.
Last week, the Taliban turned down President Ghani’s call for a ceasefire for medical aid to reach all parts of Afghanistan during the COVID-19 outbreak, and this weekend, said there was no confirmed ceasefire during the month of Ramadan.
The Taliban spokesperson however stated that Ghani was creating hurdles on the path of ceasefire and peace. Instead of cease-fire, work should be done for permanent peace, the spokesperson said. “We are not fighting in the areas where there are (COVID-19) patients and health workers (treating them),” he said.
It's important to note here that the Doha accord does not require the Taliban to halt fighting against the Afghan government but it obliged Ghani to release 5000 Taliban inmates in exchange for 1000 Afghan government troops by mid-march.
A few hundred prisoners have been released recently. Despite international observers’ appeal for a halt in fighting, Taliban are not bound by any agreement to do so. And it is not just the Taliban who have caused civilian casualties, but the Afghan government’s recent airstrike in Kunduz province killed at least 13 civilians, 10 of which were children.
As of recently, due to disagreements between Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and President Ashraf Ghani over election results, the US cut $1 billion in aid to Afghanistan. The cut in aid not only undermines Afghan government’s Covid-19 response but also weakens military capabilities.
Efforts are made on the part of Afghan government and Taliban to spread awareness about the virus with the latter claiming to be travelling to far-off villages to distribute leaflets, soap bars and hand sanitizers. It doesn’t matter what the situation might be-- both Afghan government and Taliban have to put their differences aside to fight the unprecedented health condition that has the world economy and politics in ruins, to save the people of Afghanistan.
Naila Mahsud
As Vanda Falbab Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings institution pointed out, "We all know that without foreign funding the Afghan military will buckle.” She also warned that some people inside the military are already forging agreements with the Taliban, warning them of planned attacks. Since the military of Afghanistan consists of multi-layered tribal personnel, any split can cause a massive breakout in fighting on ethnic lines.
The attempts at dividing the presidential throne into two is not a new phenomenon for Afghanistan. In 2014, Abdullah Abdullah had refused to give up the throne to Ghani and the then state-secretary of US John Kerry struck a compromise between these two; To let Ghani be the President and Abdullah was given the newly made position of CEO, a norm that does not actually exist in the constitution of Afghanistan.
Early April, Taliban showed immense frustration at the Doha accord saying that the US is violating the terms of the deal by drone-attacking civilians and a delay in freeing 5000 prisoners by the Afghan government on the promised time. According to the terms of the agreement, the troops have to withdraw in a period of 14 months but we cannot be certain. The discovery of COVID-19 cases among NATO-led forces might make the states withdraw their troops before the due date owing to the poor public health facilities in the country.
Ashraf Ghani might ask the United States to amend the terms of Doha accord so that a halt in the fight on part of Taliban pauses to help stop the spread of coronavirus. The Afghan government can possibly face trouble after the US withdraws since a part of the Doha accord directs the US to not interfere in Afghanistan’s domestic affairs. This weekend however, chief Taliban negotiator Sher Abbas Stanikzai said he does not see attacks on Afghan forces as a threat to the insurgent group’s peace agreement with the United States.
Efforts are made on the part of Afghan government and Taliban to spread awareness about the virus with the latter claiming to be travelling to far-off villages to distribute leaflets, soap bars and hand sanitizers. It doesn’t matter what the situation might be-- both Afghan government and Taliban have to put their differences aside to fight the unprecedented health condition that has the world economy and politics in ruins, to save the people of Afghanistan.
But given the bitterly divided Afghan leadership that threatens further cuts in aid, and Taliban with a narrow-compromise policy towards the Afghan government, the situation doesn’t look too promising.
– Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researcher, with a focus on regional politics and security issues.
Twitter: @MahsudNaila
