Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

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Updated 11 November 2024
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Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like

Frankly Speaking: What a Trump foreign policy might look like
  • Former US ambassador and current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond
  • Robert Ford appeared on the “Frankly Speaking” show as Republican President-elect Donald Trump prepared to take the reins of power

DUBAI: Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House after a resounding victory in the Nov. 5 election is set to reshape America’s foreign policy. Since it comes at a time of unprecedented tension and uncertainty in the Middle East, regional actors are closely watching for signs of how a new Republican administration might wield influence and power.

In a wide-ranging interview, Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Arab region experience, outlined his expectations for the Middle East and beyond, indicating that it is important to set expectations for what can be achieved. 

Middle East conflicts, especially those in Gaza and Lebanon, have dominated the international conversation since a deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year sparked a devastating Israeli military retaliation. “With respect to President-elect Trump’s promises to end wars, I don’t think he can end a war in a day,” Ford said on “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current affairs show.

“I don’t think he can end a war in a week, but he can push for negotiations on the Ukraine war. And with respect to the war in Gaza and the war in Lebanon, he has an ability to influence events. (But) I am not sure he will use that ability.”

Ford noted that there is little support within the Republican Party for a two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it unlikely that the incoming Trump administration will pressure Israel on this issue. 




Robert Ford, a veteran American diplomat with extensive Middle East experience, outlined to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen his expectations for the Middle East and beyond following the election of Donald Trump as US President. (AN Photo)

“The American Republican Party, in particular, has evinced little support for the establishment of a Palestinian state over the past 15 years. There is no (faction) in the Republican Party exerting pressure for that,” he said. 

In fact, he pointed out, “there are many in the Republican Party who back harder line Israeli politicians who reject the establishment of a Palestinian state.” 

In the current political climate, when there is strong Arab-Islamic unity over the Israeli invasion of Gaza and the consequent high civilian death toll, recognition of a Palestinian state has become a matter of priority for regional actors. Saudi Arabia has been leading efforts to boost international cooperation to reach a two-state solution. In September, the Kingdom’s government formed a global alliance to lead efforts aimed at establishing a Palestinian state.

Ford, who is a current senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that any push for progress on this issue will likely come from Gulf leaders. “The only people who will have influence with President Trump personally on this are in fact leaders in the Gulf. And if they make Palestine a priority, perhaps he will reconsider, and I emphasize the word ‘perhaps’,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is keen on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom has made it very clear that normalization will be off the table unless it sees the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“The first thing is I would imagine that the incoming Trump administration will ask the Saudi government whether or not it is still insistent on a Palestinian state — or at least concrete measures toward a Palestinian state — as part of a package deal involving a US-Saudi defense agreement,” Ford told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

“I think the Trump people would rather not have any kind of Saudi conditionality regarding Palestine as part of that agreement, because, in large part, the Israelis won’t accept it.” 

The US has long been the largest arms supplier to Israel. Last year, after Israel began its assault on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, it asked the US for $10 billion in emergency military aid, according to a New York Times report. The Council on Foreign Relations, an independent US-based think tank, estimates that the US has provided at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel since last October.

Trump has reportedly told Netanyahu that he wants the war in Gaza, which so far has claimed more than 43,400 Palestinian lives, most of them civilians, to finish by the time he takes office in January. Does that mean a Trump administration will put pressure on the Israeli leader to wrap up the war?




Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Wednesday, Nov. 6. (AP)

Ford ruled out the possibility of a reduction in US supply of weapons to Israel. “It’s extremely unlikely that, especially in 2025, President Trump and his team will impose an arms embargo on Israel,” he said. 

Ford expects Trump’s well-known disdain for foreign aid to affect US assistance for Israel in the long term, but without the use of reductions as a threat. 

“I do think that President Trump does not particularly like foreign aid. He views foreign aid as an expenditure of American money and resources that he would rather keep in the US,” he said. 

“So, over the long term, and I stress the word ‘long term,’ I could imagine that President Trump might look for ways to begin to reduce the annual American assistance to Israel, which is over $4 billion in total. 

“But I don’t think he would do that in a way that is used as a threat against Israel. It’s much more likely it would be part of a Trump measure to reduce foreign aid to a lot of countries, not only Israel.”

The Middle East’s second major conflict, between Israel and Hezbollah, has been raging for 13 months now in Lebanon, taking a toll of 3,000 lives, including combatants, and displacing 1.2 million people from the country’s south. In Israel, 72 people, including 30 soldiers, have been killed by Hezbollah attacks and 60,000 people have been displaced during the same period.

The war shows no signs of ending: Israel says it is carrying out new operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon and in parts of Syria, while Hezbollah continues to launch dozens of rockets into northern Israel.

Ford sees potential for early US involvement in discussions on Lebanon “fairly early in the administration,” adding that the engagement would begin through a family connection between Trump and Lebanon.

Although he does not think Lebanon is high on the incoming administration’s agenda, he finds “it is interesting that there is a family connection between President-elect Trump and Lebanon.”

“The husband of one of his daughters is connected to Lebanon, and his daughter’s father-in-law,” Ford, said referring to Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman whose son Michael married Tiffany Trump two years ago and who acted as a Trump emissary to the Arab American community during the election campaign.

“Because Trump operates very much with family, and we saw that in the first administration — first Trump administration — supposedly this Lebanese American gentleman, businessman, may be involved in some discussions.”

Ford also noted that “Israeli success against Hezbollah and against Iran has made the Hezbollah and Iranian side more flexible in their positions,” adding that “it might be easier to reach an agreement on ending the war in Lebanon than, for example, it will be in Gaza.” 

Moving on to Syria, Ford, who served as the US ambassador in Damascus from 2011 to 2014, said while the country “is very low on President Trump’s priority list,” Trump might pull the remaining American troops out.

The US is reported to have a military presence of approximately 900 personnel in eastern Syria and 2,500 in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh. The troops in Syria serve various purposes: helping prevent the resurgence of Daesh, supporting Washington’s Kurdish allies and containing the influence of Iran and Russia — both of which also have a military presence in Syria.

“I think it more likely than not that President Trump will withdraw the remaining American forces in Syria, which numbers somewhere around 1,000,” Ford said, adding that the president-elect might also “withdraw the American forces that are now in Iraq as part of the international coalition against Daesh.” 

He added that Trump “may, perhaps, accept a bilateral relationship, military relationship with Iraq afterward,” but Syria remains “low on his priority list.”

Ford also thinks it is “impossible” for Syrian President Bashar Assad to abandon his alliance with Iran, against which the new Trump administration is expected to reapply “maximum pressure.” 

“The Iranians really saved him (Assad) from the Syrian armed opposition in 2013 and 2014 and 2015,” he said. “There is no alternative for President Assad to a continued close military relationship with Iran.”

He added: “I’m sure President Assad is uncomfortable with some of the things which Iran is doing in Syria and which are triggering substantial Israeli airstrikes. But to abandon Iran? No, that’s difficult for me to imagine.”

He said to expect the Syrian leader to trust Gulf Arab governments more than he would trust the Iranians would be “a big ask.”

When it comes to US policy toward Iran, Ford expects the new Trump administration to return to the “maximum pressure” policy. “For a long time, the Biden administration ignored Iranian sales of petroleum to Chinese companies. ... But the Trump administration is certainly going to take more aggressive action against Chinese companies that import Iranian oil and other countries,” he said.




Demonstration by the families of the hostages taken captive in the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants during the Oct. 7 attacks, calling for action to release the hostages, outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence in Azza (Gaza) Street in central Jerusalem last month. (AFP)

“It’s highly unlikely that the Trump administration is going to accept that Iraq imports and pays for Iranian energy products, such as electricity and natural gas.”

Ford sees the Trump team as split into two camps: the extreme conservatives, who want regime change in Tehran, and the isolationists, who oppose the US entering a war with Iran.

“There is a camp of extreme conservatives, many of whom actually do favor attempting regime change in Iran. They won’t use the words ‘regime change’ because the words have a bad air, a bad connotation in the US now, but they are, in effect, calling for regime change in Iran,” he said. 

“I should hasten to add that they don’t know what would replace the Islamic Republic in terms of a government.” 

According to Ford, the second camp “is a more, in some ways, isolationist camp. J.D. Vance, the vice president-elect, would be in this camp; so would American media personality Tucker Carlson, who’s a very strong Trump supporter and who has influence with Trump. 

“They do not want to send in the American military into a new war in the Middle East, and they don’t advocate for a war against Iran.”

Ford’s own sense of Trump, from his first administration and from recent statements, is that “he, too, is very cautious about sending the US military to fight Iran.”

Similarly, the Trump team is divided when it comes to the Ukraine war, according to Ford, so it will take some time “for Trump himself to make a definitive policy decision.”

“There are some, such as former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who are very firm supporters of the Ukrainian effort against Russia. Others, like Vance, are not.”

The second reality regarding Ukraine, Ford said, is that Trump himself is skeptical about the value of NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“I cannot imagine that he will be enthusiastic in any way about Ukraine joining NATO. That will at least address one of Moscow’s big concerns,” he said. “The third point I would make: The Americans may propose ideas. But the American ideas about, for example, an autonomous region in eastern Ukraine or freezing the battle lines.”

He added: “I’m not sure that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky is going to be enthusiastic about accepting them. I’m not sure the Europeans will be enthusiastic about accepting them. And therefore, again, the negotiation process could take a long time.”

On who might advise Trump on Middle East policy after he moves into the White House in January, now that Jared Kushner, the former senior adviser and Trump’s son-in-law, has announced he does not plan to join the administration this time, Ford said Trump places a very high regard on loyalty to him personally.

“People such as Richard Grenell, who was his acting director of national intelligence, and Pompeo pass that kind of loyalty test,” he said. (On Sunday, Trump announced he would not ask Pompeo or former primary opponent Nikki Haley to join his second administration.)

“Trump’s agenda this time is massive change in the Washington federal departments among the employees. And he will trust loyalists … to implement those deep changes — the firing of thousands of employees,” Ford said. “We will see a very different kind of Trump foreign policy establishment by the time we arrive in the year 2026-2027.”

 

 

 


Trump eyes Erdogan’s help to end Ukraine war

US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (File/AFP)
US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (File/AFP)
Updated 55 min 30 sec ago
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Trump eyes Erdogan’s help to end Ukraine war

US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (File/AFP)
  • Two leaders discussed “all things Syria, Gaza and more” in what Trump called a “very good and productive telephone conversation” with Erdogan

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said Monday he wanted to work with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, after the two leaders spoke by telephone.
Trump added on his Truth Social network that Erdogan had also invited him to visit Turkiye and that the Turkish leader would be meeting him in Washington.
“I look forward to working with President Erdogan on getting the ridiculous, but deadly, War between Russia and Ukraine ended — NOW!” Trump posted.
Trump, who promised to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of starting his second term in January, has been pushing Kyiv and Moscow to reach a ceasefire deal.
NATO member Turkiye has sought to maintain good relations with both of its Black Sea neighbors since the Russian invasion and has twice hosted talks aimed at ending the war.
The two leaders also discussed “all things Syria, Gaza and more” in what Trump called a “very good and productive telephone conversation” with Erdogan.
Trump said he and Erdogan had an “excellent” relationship during his first term as US president from 2017 to 2021.
The Turkish president’s office said Erdogan had told Trump that US efforts to ease sanctions on Syria would “contribute” to stabilizing the war-torn country.
Washington has said any normalization or lifting of sanctions following the December ouster of Bashar Assad will depend on verifiable progress by Syria’s new authorities on priorities including actions against “terror.”
Erdogan also thanked Trump for his “approach to ending wars,” with the statement mentioning Ukraine, Gaza and negotiations on Iran.
He raised the issue of the war-battered Gaza Strip, telling Trump that humanitarian aid should “be delivered to Gaza without interruption.”
Israel halted all aid to the 2.4 million Palestinians in Gaza in March and its security cabinet has approved the expansion of military operations in Gaza including the “conquest” of the Palestinian territory.
Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates next week.


Spain probes deaths of thousands of Spaniards in Nazi camps

Spain probes deaths of thousands of Spaniards in Nazi camps
Updated 05 May 2025
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Spain probes deaths of thousands of Spaniards in Nazi camps

Spain probes deaths of thousands of Spaniards in Nazi camps
  • Thousands of Spaniards fled to France after Franco’s Fascist-backed nationalists overthrew a republic in the 1936-1939 civil war
  • They found themselves under Nazi occupation in France from 1940

MADRID: Spanish prosecutors on Monday said they were investigating whether General Francisco Franco’s dictatorship collaborated with Nazi Germany during World War II to send thousands of exiled Spaniards in France to death camps.
Thousands of Spaniards fled to France after Franco’s Fascist-backed nationalists overthrew a republic in the 1936-1939 civil war, only to find themselves under Nazi occupation in France from 1940.
The investigation will “clarify the relevant responsibilities and the existence of a possible joint strategy” between Franco’s dictatorship and Nazi Germany “in the detention and subsequent transfer of thousands of Spaniards exiled in France to different extermination camps,” the public prosecutor’s office said.
The Mauthausen camp in Austria was among the sites where the republican exiles “were subjected to forced labor, torture, disappearance and murder,” the prosecutor’s office added.
The human rights and democratic memory section of the office will lead the inquiry into the 4,435 recorded dead.
The prosecutors’ office said the probe coincided with the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Mauthausen and was launched in accordance with a divisive 2022 democratic memory law.
The left-wing government passed the legislation in a bid to tackle the legacy of the civil war and honor victims of violence and persecution under Franco, who ruled with an iron fist until his death in 1975.
The right-wing opposition says the left is trying to reopen the wounds of the past with the law and has vowed to repeal it if they return to power.


Rwanda in ‘initial’ talks with US over migration deal

Rwanda in ‘initial’ talks with US over migration deal
Updated 05 May 2025
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Rwanda in ‘initial’ talks with US over migration deal

Rwanda in ‘initial’ talks with US over migration deal
  • Great Lakes nation — often viewed as an island of stability in a turbulent region — previously made a similar multi-million deal with Britain to receive deported illegal migrants
  • FM Olivier Nduhungirehe: ‘Those reports are true, we are engaged in discussions with the Government of the United States of America’

KIGALI: Rwanda and Washington are in the early stages of talks to receive immigrants from the United States, the Rwandan foreign minister told state media.
Washington has been pushing a mass deportation drive, with President Donald Trump’s administration negotiating highly controversial arrangements to send migrants to third countries.
The Great Lakes nation — often viewed as an island of stability in a turbulent region — previously made a similar multi-million deal with Britain to receive deported illegal migrants. However, it was scrapped immediately after a new government was elected last year.
Foreign minister Olivier Nduhungirehe confirmed earlier reports that Rwanda was among countries talking to Washington over a migrant deal, following a question on state TV on Sunday.
“Those reports are true, we are engaged in discussions with the Government of the United States of America,” he said.
Noting the similar agreement with the British, Nduhungirehe said such a deal “is not something new to us.”
However, while he confirmed that the two nations were engaged in “ongoing” talks, he said “they are not yet conclusive to determine the direction this will take.”
“I would say the discussions are in their initial stages, but we continue to talk about this problem of migrants,” he said, without giving further details.
When contacted by AFP about the talks he said: “You will be informed when the discussions will be finalized.”
Washington’s deal with El Salvador has created a furor, notably after a US official acknowledged that authorities mistakenly expelled one Salvadoran man but that the United States could not bring him back.
The Kigali-London deal was also controversial, with the UK’s Supreme Court ruling that sending migrants to Rwanda through the agreement would be illegal because it “would expose them to a real risk of ill-treatment.”
The tiny nation of roughly 13 million people has been criticized by rights groups over its human rights record and increasingly diminished freedom of speech.
Rwanda has also faced mounting pressure over its involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the east of which has been re-engulfed in conflict after a lightning strike by a Rwandan-backed military group.


UK royals lead celebrations to mark 80 years since WWII end

UK royals lead celebrations to mark 80 years since WWII end
Updated 05 May 2025
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UK royals lead celebrations to mark 80 years since WWII end

UK royals lead celebrations to mark 80 years since WWII end
  • Charles and Camilla were joined by Princess Anne, Prince Edward, Prince William and his wife Catherine along with their children George, Charlotte and Louis

LONDON: A military parade, fly-past and balcony appearance by the royal family on Monday kicked off four days of UK celebrations marking 80 years since the end of World War II.
King Charles III saluted as around 1,000 members of the UK armed forces, joined by NATO colleagues from the US, France and Germany, along with 11 soldiers from Ukraine waving their country’s flag reached the end of the procession in front of Buckingham Palace.
Tens of thousands defied the damp weather on the Union Jack-lined Mall to watch the parade, which began with Winston Churchill’s 1945 victory speech, voiced by actor Timothy Spall.
“Do not yield to violence and tyranny, march straight forward and die if need be, unconquered,” bellowed Spall, standing in front of Churchill’s statue in Parliament Square.
The procession culminated in a fly past featuring aerobatic team The Red Arrows and 23 current and historic military aircraft, which the 76-year-old monarch watched from the balcony of Buckingham Palace.
Charles and Queen Camilla were joined by Princess Anne, Prince Edward, Prince William and his wife Catherine along with their children George, Charlotte and Louis.
As European countries gear up to celebrate Victory in Europe (VE) Day on May 8, the war in Ukraine is a reminder “that peace is never to be taken for granted,” Charles told the Italian parliament last month.
“Today, sadly, the echoes of those times — which we fervently hoped had been consigned to history — reverberate across our continent,” the king said.
It was from the same balcony on May 8, 1945, that King George VI and Queen Elizabeth — alongside daughters princesses Elizabeth and Margaret, and then-prime minister Churchill — greeted tens of thousands of Londoners celebrating what Churchill declared the “day of victory in Europe.”
That night, the two princesses, then 19 and 14, were allowed to leave the palace and join the jubilant crowds incognito.
Some 40 years later, Elizabeth, by then queen, described the night as “one of the most memorable” of her life.
This year’s commemorations will take on extra poignancy given the fading of the “Greatest Generation.”
Younger generations are increasingly disconnected from the conflict that shook the continent from 1939 to 1945.
“It’s important to remember some of the poor devils who didn’t make it like I did,” 99-year-old Royal Air Force veteran Dennis Bishop told AFP.
Buckingham Palace will later host a reception celebrating veterans and people of the WWII generation.
The first act on a chilly Monday morning in London was the draping of two huge Union Jack flags on the Cenotaph war memorial.
Hundreds of people set up camp outside Buckingham Palace with chairs and rugs.
“It’s so emotional to be here today. Eighty years of peace and peace of mind. Where would we be without them?” asked Patrick Beacon, 76, who arrived with his wife at around 7:00 am (0600 GMT) to get the “best view.”
Tourists included 52-year-old Ludivine Batthelot from southern France.
“We came out of curiosity because it’s the kind of celebration that the English do so well,” she told AFP. “It’s folklore, we wanted to be in the mood and live the experience.”
Among other events, there was to be a party on HMS Belfast — one of the few surviving British warships from WWII — which is moored on the banks of the Thames.
And people were invited to take part in hundreds of other parties, 1940s dress-up events, picnics, installations and commemorations that take place across the country through the week until VE Day on Thursday.
On Tuesday, Queen Camilla will visit an art installation of around 30,000 ceramic red poppies — symbols of remembrance for the war dead — at the iconic Tower of London.
Celebrations will draw to a close on Thursday with a two-minute national silence at government buildings.
Charles, who has been undergoing treatment for cancer, will attend a service at Westminster Abbey, followed by a concert at London’s Horse Guards Parade.
The royal family was hoping “nothing will detract or distract” from the celebrations after Prince Harry, Charles’ youngest son, gave a bombshell interview on Friday, according to UK media.
Pubs across the country have been allowed to stay open two hours later as part of the celebrations.


In Dhaka, Makkah Route facility eases Bangladeshi pilgrims’ Hajj journey

In Dhaka, Makkah Route facility eases Bangladeshi pilgrims’ Hajj journey
Updated 05 May 2025
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In Dhaka, Makkah Route facility eases Bangladeshi pilgrims’ Hajj journey

In Dhaka, Makkah Route facility eases Bangladeshi pilgrims’ Hajj journey
  • Around 87,000 Bangladeshis will be going for Hajj in 2025
  • Special pilgrimage flights from Dhaka began on April 29

Dhaka: Bangladeshi pilgrims have welcomed the Hajj immigration procedures under the Makkah Route initiative, which are easing the process for tens of thousands of pilgrims departing for Saudi Arabia from the nation’s main international airport.

Most of the pilgrims are departing from Dhaka under the flagship pre-travel program.

The Kingdom launched the initiative in 2019 to help pilgrims meet all the visa, customs and health requirements at the airport of origin and save them long hours of waiting before and upon arrival in Saudi Arabia.

This year, Hajj is expected to start on June 4, and special pilgrimage flights from the Bangladeshi capital began on April 29.

“The Makkah Route initiative … It’s very pleasant for the pilgrims of Bangladesh. It is, of course, time-saving and being done comfortably,” Hajj director Mohammad Lokman Hossain told Arab News over the weekend.

“They didn’t have to wait in a long queue and it’s very beneficial to the pilgrims.”

Bangladesh is among seven Muslim-majority countries — including Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Morocco, Turkiye and Cote d’Ivoire — where Saudi Arabia is operating its Makkah Route initiative.

One of the most populous Muslim-majority countries, Bangladesh was granted a quota of 127,000 pilgrims in 2025. But only about 87,000 will be going this year due to high inflation and rising cost of airfares to the Middle East.

The pilgrims appreciated the way the Saudi facility was organized at the airport as they prepared to board their flights to the Kingdom.

“We have completed the immigration formalities very easily. There was no delay, no waiting. It’s like we came and everything was done,” Mohammad Ruhul Kuddus, a businessman from Dhaka, told Arab News.

For Oaliur Reza, the immigration process took only a minute.

“I had no idea about these services. I just found out about it for the first time and I had a very good experience,” Reza said.

“Just within a minute, I passed the immigration, and I liked this service the most.”

Abdul Awal, a businessman from the city of Feni, recalled how different it had been the first time he performed Hajj, when the Makkah Route initiative was not yet introduced.

“I like the current system a lot. It made things easier. The difficulties of the pilgrims have been reduced now significantly compared to the years before (the Makkah Route initiative),” Awal said.

“There were plenty of computerized service counters here for the pilgrims. Praise be to God, it’s very good.”