Resurgent GCC-Central Asia partnership defies superpower rivalries

Early next month, the Uzbek city of Samarkand will host the Gulf Cooperation Council-Central Asian Summit, the second such gathering in the space of two years. The Saudi city of Jeddah hosted the first meeting of the heads of state of the 11 participating countries in July 2023.

The two resource-rich regions have been seeking to rebuild their historical economic and cultural ties for some time now. For more than a thousand years, from the 8th to the 19th centuries, they were closely integrated, connected by trade routes and a shared culture. In the 1860s, the region came under Russian and then Soviet rule until 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved.

Since gaining independence, the five Central Asian republics — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, known informally as the C5 — have sought to reestablish themselves as economic hubs and trading partners, as well as reliable sources of energy.

They are landlocked countries, so they need to stay on friendly terms with their neighbors to gain access to the sea and to faraway land-trade routes. During more than 120 years of Russian rule, their economic orientation was toward the north. While maintaining ties with Russia over the past three decades, they have nonetheless managed to stay clear of superpower competition, and this neutrality has served them well.

Americans, Chinese and Russians have coexisted in the region. They have naturally competed but their local hosts have ensured that the competition remains within acceptable bounds, and the region has benefited from this foreign attention.

While they welcome foreign investments and trade, the five nations jealously guard their newfound independence and cringe at any attempts to control their political or economic decisions.

Recent events, however, are testing Central Asia’s ability to remain neutral. Both sides in the Ukraine war have put pressure on the nations in the region to take sides, and the rivalry between the US and China has made it difficult at times to engage with either of them. This rivalry has now morphed into open economic warfare in the form of escalating tit-for-tat tariffs.

Some in this region believe the Trump administration’s tariffs have the potential to redraw geopolitical lines, if in fact it goes ahead with them, as seems likely. There was a hopeful sign this week when the administration paused some of the newly announced tariffs for 90 days but the damage is already done and the broader strategic and regional effects might be already in motion.

Central Asian nations have all been hit by the new US tariffs: 27 percent for Kazakhstan and 10 percent for the other four. Deterred from trading with the US, they might turn to China, which has been much more severely affected by the duties. Beijing might find it more profitable to step up its economic engagement in the region to make up for losses in the American market. Aside from the tariffs, geography also makes such trade diversions sensible.

There is one area in which it has been evident that China is gaining the upper hand in Central Asia, even before the rising tariffs. While Chinese electric vehicles face formidable barriers in the US and EU, Central Asians are embracing these imports through tax breaks and duty-free schemes.

As states in Central Asia expand their export capacities, as has been seen in recent years, they will seek safe and open markets

Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

As states in Central Asia expand their export capacities, as has been seen in recent years, they will seek safe and open markets. High tariffs could become a barrier for trade with the US and so the Chinese market might become more inviting.

In an attempt to avoid overreliance on a single export market, however, they are seeking to diversify their export destinations, thus reviving older trade routes with the Middle East, including Gulf countries.

GCC member states are natural partners for Central Asian nations because both groups seek profitable engagements but neither has any political ambition to interfere in the internal affairs of the other. The two regions enjoy close relations with global superpowers and share the goal of neutrality. Their partnership is all the stronger because its deep roots lie in a shared culture and values.

Their reengagement with each other is a fairly recent development but it is growing rapidly. Nearly all GCC states are already investing in Central Asia. Trade between the regions has grown tenfold over the past eight years, although the volumes remain modest.

Since their first summit in Jeddah two years ago, the two groups of countries have been discussing a long list of transportation and connectivity projects that would enable them to trade with each other in more economically beneficial ways.

Iran’s geographical location between the two regions makes it a natural partner in these projects. However, its hostile policies narrow the options. Both the GCC and Central Asian nations are engaging diplomatically with Tehran in an attempt to encourage the regime to emerge from its ideological bubble. If the Iranians agreed to try a more peaceful approach to regional integration, through trade and diplomacy instead of violence and intimidation, both regions would benefit and so could Iran in the middle.

Such an outcome should not be considered so far-fetched. The two regions, Iran included, were once integrated and thrived together for millennia.

If Iran continues on its current path, there are alternative trade routes. Transportation officials from GCC and Central Asian countries have met a number of times over the past year to evaluate the options.

Either way, the two regions are determined to continue to reengage and the summit in Samarkand next month will reveal some of their options.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent those of the GCC. X: @abuhamad1