Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

Tarek Ali Ahmad - Why Arab Americans’ vote really matters in this year’s election
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Brian Katulis -0 The need for the US to engage more deeply to resolve regional issues
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Updated 29 October 2024
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Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

LONDON: Just days before Americans head to the polls to decide who will be the next US president, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves neck and neck in the race for the White House. With the contest balanced on a razor’s edge, any minor development at this point could be enough to decisively swing the vote.

Although they make up just 1 percent of the total electorate, Arab Americans represent a significant constituency in several swing states, where even a handful of votes could influence the election outcome. As such, neither of the main candidates can afford to take their votes for granted.

That is why Arab News teamed up with polling agency YouGov to survey the attitudes of Arab Americans across all geographies, age ranges, genders and income brackets to see which way the community was leaning, and what issues mattered to them most.

What became abundantly clear from the survey was that Arab Americans are not a monolith motivated by any single issue. Domestic matters, such as the economy and the cost of living, loomed large, while border security and abortion rights were also key considerations.

However, it was the plight of the Palestinians that emerged as the biggest issue for Arab Americans of all generations; namely the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza and the perceived failure of President Joe Biden’s administration to rein in Israel.




Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris. (AFP/File)

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at Middle East Institute, who moderated a special panel discussion on Monday to examine the poll findings, said the prominence of the Palestinian issue in this election showed there was still a role for the US to play in the region.

“Within the political discussion we’re having in this country, it does imply that there’s actually a strong interest in the US engaging more deeply in the Middle East — just doing it in the right way,” said Katulis.

“There’s a serious difference over who and which candidate is the right way. But for those who’ve said that we should just pull back from the region, restrain ourselves, there’s some who say that, but I think there’s a general impulse here that we need to actually delve more deeply into trying to solve — or not solve, but engage — these questions in a proper way in the region itself, but then politically here at home.”

Asked to place six key issues in order of priority, 26 percent of Arab Americans polled by YouGov said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their chief concern. The economy and the cost of living were not far behind, representing the chief concerns for 19 percent of respondents.

“The highest priority, in terms of issues that Arab Americans face, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict came at 26 percent — the highest — then followed by the economy and cost of living,” Lara Barazi, a freelance data consultant and former research director at YouGov, told the MEI panel.

Palestine appeared to be of most concern to Arab Americans in lower income brackets: 37 percent of those earning under $40,000, falling to 22 percent among those paid $80,000 or more.

“These are their issues that kind of mirror what’s going on right now in the US, not only for Arab Americans, when we look at income,” said Barazi.




If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. (AFP/File)

“The highest priority goes to the Palestinian conflict. It’s 41 percent of the lowest earners who support the Palestinian-Israeli conflict versus the highest earners. Basically, they’re interested in the economy, cost of living and the Palestinian conflict, but they do put a lot of weight on the economy and cost of living.”

What was also interesting about the findings was how much of a priority the Middle East conflict was for respondents identifying as Republican, Democrat and independent.

“We see that the highest (ranking) for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes from independents and the lowest comes from Republicans,” said Barazi. “Only 17 percent of Republicans said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a top priority for us, while cost of living comes the highest for Republicans.”

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him, which suggested they are penalizing the Democrats over the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in Israel.

Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error.

The slightly higher support for Trump than for Harris comes despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 23 percent as independents.

The findings were somewhat puzzling, especially as Trump has announced his intention to expand his 2017 travel ban on people from seven majority-Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and has said if elected he would bar Palestinian refugees from entering the US, policies that few Arab Americans would support.

Nevertheless, it appears Biden’s record on the Middle East over the past year has been the deciding factor for many.

Also taking part in Monday’s MEI panel discussion, Yasmeen Abu Taleb, a White House reporter at The Washington Post, said the Democrats never expected the issue of Palestine to hang over the campaign in the way that it has.




Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. (AFP/File)


“We’ve never seen the issue of Palestine be this big of a political issue for this long,” she said. “I think in the Biden administration, there was a sense that people would be really angry and protest for a month or two. They hoped the war would be over by January.

“They were always wildly optimistic that this was not going to hang over them as an election issue. And here we are, more than a year later, and it’s still a key driver of the election. I think that’s an important signal of how much the politics have shifted on this.

“I don’t think we’ve seen this in US politics, where the debate has been this intense and sustained.”

If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel or if the policy of the Biden administration, of which she is part, will remain broadly unchanged.

“Obviously it depends on who wins but I do think if you saw a Harris presidency, it’s not going to be the dramatic change that people are pushing for,” said Abu Taleb. “But I do think there are signs that the Democratic Party is shifting on Israel, and in subtle but important ways.”

Although the Arab News-YouGov poll focused on Arab American opinion, the panel discussion naturally expanded to the prevailing attitudes among the Arab populations and leaderships in the Middle East. Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of research and studies at Arab News, said that many in the Middle East are holding their breath.

“People are essentially just waiting for the election day to come,” he added. “That’s when everyone’s going to be like, OK, now we can finally stop this election game, campaigning, and we can actually get to solid, concrete policy that will affect what’s going to happen, whether or not we’re going to see an actual end to the conflict, or we’re going to see even further.

“We haven’t heard anything in terms of preference to whichever candidate comes through. But at the same time, we cannot dismiss the fact that any incoming president will have a lot to clean up with regards to everything that’s happening on the ground.”




“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president,” Ali Ahmad said. (AFP/File)

On whether or not the Arab world has any preference for the US presidency, Ali Ahmad said many in the region have remained tight-lipped, preferring to wait and see the outcome of this closely fought race.

“There’s a lot of different points of view and there’s no real proper preference for either candidate because of the fact that it’s just such a razor-thin difference,” he said.

“Now you have people on the ground talking about how, essentially, every single event that occurs causes a shift in opinion, from (Israel) entering into Lebanon, from the bombing of Iran, to even Biden’s resignation from the nomination.

“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president.”

Reflecting on the significance of the role of the Arab American constituency in the election, Ali Ahmad said many seem to recognize their vote can make a significant difference.

“The reason why there’s a big turnout, as we said, nine out of 10 Americans are set to go vote, is that 80 percent of those who responded found that their vote actually counts and will matter in this year's election,” he said.

“They really feel that they could actually change it and make that difference, whether it is to punish the Democrats or whether it is to actually vote for an independent.”

 


Spain hosts European, Arab nations to pressure Israel on Gaza

Updated 2 sec ago
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Spain hosts European, Arab nations to pressure Israel on Gaza

MADRID: The international community should look to sanction Israel to stop the war in Gaza, Spain’s foreign minister said, ahead of a Madrid meeting of European and Arab nations on Sunday to urge a halt to its offensive.
Countries Israel had long counted on as allies have been adding their voices to growing international pressure after it expanded military operations against Gaza’s Hamas rulers, whose 2023 attack on Israel sparked the devastating war.
A two-month aid blockade has worsened shortages of food, water, fuel and medicine in the Palestinian territory, sparking fears of famine.
Aid organizations say the trickle of supplies Israel allowed to enter in recent days falls far short of needs.
Madrid will host 20 countries as well as international organizations on Sunday with the aim of “stopping this war, which no longer has any goal,” Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares told France Info radio.
Humanitarian aid must enter Gaza “massively, unimpeded, neutrally, so that it is not Israel who decides who can eat and who cannot,” he said.
A previous such gathering in Madrid last year brought together countries including Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye as well as European nations such as Ireland and Norway that have recognized a Palestinian state.
Sunday’s meeting, which also includes representatives from the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, will promote a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
After the European Union decided this week to review its cooperation deal with Israel, Albares said “we must consider sanctions, we must do everything, consider everything to stop this war.”
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mainly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official figures.
Palestinian militants also took 251 hostages, 57 of whom remain in Gaza including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed almost 54,000 people, mostly civilians, according to Hamas-run Gaza’s health ministry.

Chinese PM in Indonesia to expand trade ties as US rivalry grows

Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto (L) and Chinese Premier Li Qiang inspect a guard of honor during a welcoming ceremony.
Updated 6 min 59 sec ago
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Chinese PM in Indonesia to expand trade ties as US rivalry grows

  • China wants to increase cooperation with Indonesia under Belt and Road Initiative, Li says
  • From Jakarta, he will head to Malaysia for the ASEAN-GCC-China Economic Summit

JAKARTA: Indonesia and China signed a series of agreements enhancing trade ties on Sunday, following Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s meetings with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta.

Li arrived in the Indonesian capital on Saturday for a three-day visit.

He was received by Prabowo with a guard of honor at the Presidential Palace on Sunday morning, where they witnessed the signing of 12 memoranda, including on investment, banking, cooperation between sovereign wealth funds, industry, supply chains, tourism, economy, and health.

“I reaffirm our commitment to strengthen this partnership with the People’s Republic of China … We view this relationship as bringing benefits not only to our two countries but also to the entire Asian region and possibly even the world,” Prabowo said during the meeting, as quoted by his office.

The visit comes against the backdrop of the US global trade war and intensifying geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing, which has lately seen China’s top leaders increase their regional outreach and engagement with Southeast Asian countries.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua quoted Li as saying during talks with Prabowo that China is “willing to work with Indonesia to enhance alignment of development strategies and deepen high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.”

The Belt and Road Initiative is a multibillion-dollar network of massive road, energy, port and industrial projects launched by Beijing in 2013 to connect China to the rest of Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Both China and Indonesia are members of the G20 forum of the world’s largest economies and in January this year, Indonesia joined the China-led BRICS grouping, which is also spearheaded by Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa.

Indonesia is the first Southeast Asian country to enter the bloc, which is the most powerful geopolitical forum outside of the Western world.

During Li’s visit, the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) and the China Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia signed an agreement to increase business collaboration, bilateral trade and investment flows.

The Chinese premier’s delegation featured dozens of business leaders who met Indonesian entrepreneurs at the Indonesia-China Business Reception on Saturday, which was also attended by Prabowo and the Chinese premier.

“Indonesia-China trade reaches $130 billion a year, making China Indonesia’s largest trading partner. This is an opportunity to increase investment and create jobs,” Kadin chairman Anindya Novyan Bakrie said in a statement.

“When relations are good, licenses are certainly easier, and funding will be more accessible. For sure, we want more investment to boost the economy and create jobs.”

On Monday, Li will head to Malaysia for the ASEAN-GCC-China Economic Summit, attended by leaders from Southeast Asian countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council.


Malaysia calls for Myanmar truce extension, pushes for peace deal

Updated 17 min 45 sec ago
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Malaysia calls for Myanmar truce extension, pushes for peace deal

  • Malaysian government calls for the extension of post earthquake ceasefire in Myanmar
  • More than 6,600 killed and over a million displaced according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners

KUALA LAMPUR: Malaysia called Sunday for the extension and expansion of a post-earthquake ceasefire in Myanmar, as it ramped up calls for the long-awaited implementation of a five-point peace plan.
The ruling military junta initially declared a truce in the many-sided civil war after a huge quake in late March killed nearly 3,800 and left tens of thousands homeless.
That agreement, which has been extended before, is due to expire at the end of May — though conflict monitors say fighting and junta airstrikes have continued throughout.
At a meeting of regional foreign ministers on Sunday, Malaysia’s Mohamad Hasan “proposed the extension and expansion of ceasefires beyond the currently affected zones,” a statement said.
“We call on the stakeholders in Myanmar to cease hostilities, and to extend and expand the ceasefire, to facilitate the long and difficult path toward recovery, and ease the suffering of the people of Myanmar,” Mohamad said in his opening remarks.
The United Nations and independent conflict monitors say the junta has continued its campaign of aerial bombardment despite the ceasefire.
Numerous anti-coup and ethnic armed groups have made their own pledges to pause hostilities.
However some residents in eastern Myanmar said they have been displaced as anti-coup forces besieged junta-held towns.
More than 6,600 people have been killed since the coup, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, and millions displaced.


Malaysia currently holds the rotating chairmanship of the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with leaders due to meet at a summit in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.
The bloc has led so far fruitless diplomatic efforts to end Myanmar’s conflict since the junta staged a coup deposing civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
ASEAN has struggled to implement the five-point peace plan agreed by all bloc leaders in April 2021.
As a result junta officials have been barred from ASEAN summits over lack of progress on the deal.
“One thing for sure that we agreed is that Myanmar’s government... must comply with the five points consensus which they themselves agreed on as one of the signatories,” Mohamad said later on Sunday.
He stressed two of the most important points were an immediate halt to hostilities, and the appointment of a special envoy to visit Myanmar’s capital Naypyidaw.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok in April and urged him to respect the truce.
That followed an earlier visit by Mohamad and Thai counterpart Maris Sangiampongsa to Naypyidaw as part of ASEAN’s efforts to assess humanitarian needs and aid delivery to those affected by the earthquake.
Mohamad told reporters Sunday he would visit Naypyidaw in an ASEAN capacity in June.
“We have to explore (the issue) with patience because the warring sections have been against each other for decades,” Mohamad said.
Myanmar’s junta has announced plans to hold an election around the end of the year.
But the opposition has urged the public and political parties to boycott any poll organized by the military government.
Mohamad said Sunday there was “no point” in having an election if there was only partial participation by the people.


At least 14 killed in Pakistan storms after heatwave

Updated 46 min 37 sec ago
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At least 14 killed in Pakistan storms after heatwave

  • 14 people were killed and over a hundred injured as a result of windstorms that swept across central and northern Pakistan
  • Temperatures reached near record levels in April with schools announcing early summer vacations because of the heat

LAHORE: “Destructive” windstorms that raged across central and northern Pakistan after an intense heatwave have killed at least 14 people and injured over 100 more, officials said Sunday.
Fierce winds, thunder and lightning swept across eastern Punjab and northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces as well as the capital Islamabad on Saturday afternoon and evening, uprooting trees and downing electric poles.
While the majority of the deaths were caused by collapsing walls and roofs, at least two people died after being hit by solar panels dislodged by the whipping gusts.
One man was killed and three others were injured by lightning strikes.
Mazhar Hussain, a spokesperson for the Punjab provincial disaster management authority, told AFP that such windstorms develop because of excessive heat, which reached above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in recent days.
“There were three to four days in the recent heatwave where temperatures went up quite a lot,” he said, announcing 14 deaths in Punjab and 100 injured.
“This windstorm was particularly destructive. The wind speed was very high. There was so much dust in it that visibility was greatly reduced.”
The Pakistan Meteorological Department predicted more storms on Sunday.
Social media was replete on Saturday evening with videos of the damage the windstorms had unleashed.
A clip filmed inside a plane about to land in Punjab’s city of Lahore showed passengers screaming in terror as the aircraft was tossed about by turbulence.
The plane was later diverted to Karachi.
Other videos show cars crushed by falling trees and roads blocked by debris.
Pakistan, one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, is grappling with increasingly frequent extreme weather events.
Islamabad experienced several usually rare hail storms throughout April and May that damaged vehicles, smashing window panes and shattering solar panels.
Soaring temperatures in April and May are becoming more common in Pakistan, which usually sees summer begin in early June.
Temperatures reached near-record levels in April, as high as 46.5C (115.7F) in parts of Punjab.
Schools in Punjab and Balochistan have announced early summer vacations because of the heat.


Man killed by automatic gunfire in French city of Dijon

Updated 25 May 2025
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Man killed by automatic gunfire in French city of Dijon

  • The police criminal investigation unit determined the shooter
  • The southern Chenove district where the killing occurred was known for drug trafficking

LYON: A 29-year-old man was fatally shot overnight in the eastern French city of Dijon, the local prosecutor said on Sunday, adding that a gangland killing was suspected.
The southern Chenove district where the killing occurred was known for drug trafficking, the prosecutor, Olivier Caracotch, said in a statement.
“A dozen shell casings used by an automatic weapon” were found in the street where the killing took place, he said.
Nearby vehicles and a third-floor apartment were hit by some of the shots, but there were no other casualties, he said.
The police criminal investigation unit determined the shooter had approached a group that included the victim around midnight, opened fire, then escaped by car, Caracotch said.
The man killed lived in the city and had no police record for drug-related crimes, he said, adding that the investigation opened was for organized gang murder and criminal association.