Egypt economy forecast to grow 5.1% in year to June, 5.5% in 2022/23

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Updated 21 October 2021
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Egypt economy forecast to grow 5.1% in year to June, 5.5% in 2022/23

  • Tourism has been gradually recovering from COVID travel restrictions put in place in March 2020

Egypt's economy will grow 5.1 percent in the fiscal year that ends in June 2022, but accelerate to 5.5 percent in each of the following two years as tourism continues to rebound and the effects of the coronavirus pandemic wane, a Reuters poll showed.

The central bank said last month economic growth surged to 7.7 percent in the final quarter of the last fiscal year, indicating growth of 3.3 percent for the entirety of 2020/21, up from a previous full fiscal-year estimate of 2.8 percent.

Economists in a July poll predicted economic growth would be 5.0 percent for the year to next June.

"We expect consumption growth to pick up from a low base post-COVID and public investment to remain strong this year," Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage said.

"What will be critical to see is if this growth is sustained in 2022/23, by when the pandemic effects should hopefully subside substantially."

Tourism has been gradually recovering from COVID travel restrictions put in place in March 2020.

Tourism revenue plummeted to $4.9 billion in 2020/21 from $9.9 billion a year earlier. But in the April to June quarter it bounced back to $1.75 billion from a low of $305 million in the same quarter of 2020, according to central bank data.

In the latest Reuters poll, economists expected annual urban consumer price inflation to climb to 6.0 percent in 2021/22, then picking up even further to 6.4 percent in 2022/23 and 7.0 percent in 2023/24, still within the central bank's target range of 5 percent to 9 percent.

Egypt's annual inflation rose to 6.6 percent year-on-year in September, its highest in 20 months, from 5.7 percent in August, mainly due to rising food prices, the state statistics agency CAPMAS said this month. read more 

The currency will weaken to 15.81 Egyptian pounds per dollar by the end of 2021, to 16.25 by the end of 2022 and to 17.24 by the end of 2023, the Oct. 8-20 poll of 22 economists showed.

The central bank is expected to leave its overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.25 percent throughout 2021/22 and 2022/23, then increase it to 10.25 percent by the end of June 2024, the poll found.

"We believe Egypt's sizeable CA (current account) deficit explains the central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates," causing a strong increase in imports and income outflows, RenCap's Yvonne Mhango wrote in a note.


IEA forecasts slowdown in global oil demand growth for the rest of 2025

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IEA forecasts slowdown in global oil demand growth for the rest of 2025

LONDON: The International Energy Agency said on Thursday economic headwinds combined with record sales of electric vehicles will reduce global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels per day for the remainder of 2025.

That marks a slowdown from the 990,000 bpd the IEA measured for demand growth over January-March.

“Increased trade uncertainty is expected to weigh on the world economy and, by extension, oil demand,” the IEA said in its May oil market report.

The IEA now expects global demand growth to average 740,000 bpd overall this year, an upward revision of 20,000 bpd on the month because of higher expected economic growth and lower oil prices supporting consumption.

It sees demand growth then averaging a similar 760,000 bpd in 2026.

The Paris-based watchdog hiked its supply growth forecast by almost 400,000 bpd on the month to 1.6 million bpd in 2025 as expectations of higher output from Saudi Arabia offset a predicted slowdown in US shale oil output in a lower oil price environment.

Saudi Arabia accounts for almost all of the hike in the IEA’s 2025 supply growth forecast, the IEA said, as it is the only country with room to add barrels back to the market based on current production levels.

The OPEC+ group agreed a second monthly accelerated output increase for June at its last meeting.

“Based on continued price weakness, we expect more activity cuts over the coming quarters,” the IEA said of US shale, having cut its US shale forecast by 40,000 bpd for 2025 and 190,000 bpd for 2026.

In its own monthly oil report on Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its forecast for oil supply growth from the US and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group for 2025.

A sharp rise in supply, considerably outpacing demand growth, will force oil storage levels higher by an average of 720,000 bpd this year, the IEA said, after stocks declined on average by 140,000 bpd last year. 


Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate holds steady at 2.3% in April: GASTAT 

Updated 16 min 29 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate holds steady at 2.3% in April: GASTAT 

RIYADH: Rent increases and fuel price rises helped Saudi Arabia post an inflation rate of 2.3 percent in April — the same level as a year earlier — official data showed.

According to the latest figures from the General Authority for Statistics, a 6.8 percent increase in the cost of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels contributed to the rise.

Within this category, rents paid for housing rose by 8.1 percent, driven by an 11.9 percent spike in apartment rental prices, a category that holds significant weight in the overall index. 

This comes as Saudi Arabia’s real estate market continued its growth trajectory in the first quarter of 2025, with overall property prices rising 4.3 percent year on year. 

The Kingdom’s inflation rate was similar to Middle Eastern neighbour Jordan, which posted a modest increase of 1.97 percent in the first four months of 2025, but significantly lower than the 13.5 percent registered in April by Egypt.

In its release, GASTAT stated that rental growth “had a substantial effect on the overall annual inflation rate for April 2025 due to the section’s weight, which amounted to 25.5 percent.” 

The release showed that food and beverage prices also saw an increase of 2.2 percent, influenced by a 9.4 percent rise in vegetable prices. The prices of restaurants and hotels rose by 2 percent, driven by a 2 percent increase in catering services. 

The education sector witnessed a 1.3 percent increase, mainly due to a 5.6 percent rise in fees for intermediate and secondary education. 

The prices of furnishing and home equipment, however, decreased by 1.8 percent, driven by a 3.5 percent decline in furniture, carpets, and flooring prices. 

Clothing and footwear prices dropped by 1.2 percent, with ready-made clothing prices falling by 2.1 percent. 

Transportation costs also decreased by 1 percent, primarily due to a 1.8 percent reduction in vehicle purchase prices. Communication services saw a slight decrease of 1.5 percent. 

Monthly inflation 

The consumer price index recorded a slight increase of 0.3 percent in April compared to March. 

This monthly increase was mainly influenced by the rise in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels by 0.3 percent, driven by a 0.4 percent increase in actual housing rents and prices. 

The report also noted a minor increase in food and beverages with 0.4 percent, restaurants and hotels with 0.7 percent, and personal goods and services with 0.8 percent, compared to the previous month. 

Prices of education saw an increase of 0.2 percent, while furnishing and home equipment prices edged up by 0.4 and clothing and footwear prices went up by 0.2 percent. 

There were decreases in the prices of recreation and culture by 0.4 percent and the transportation, communication and health section by 0.1 percent. 

The prices of tobacco division products showed no significant change in April. 

Wholesale Price Index 

In another report, GASTAT revealed that the Wholesale Price Index reached 2 percent in April compared to the same month of the previous year. 

This increase was mainly driven by a 4.5 percent rise in the prices of agriculture and fishery products, which was affected by a 6.9 percent rise in prices of agricultural products. 

Prices of other transportable goods, excluding metal products, machinery and equipment, saw a year-on-year increase of 4.1 percent, driven by an 8.2 percent rise in the prices of refined petroleum products. Moreover, the prices of furniture rose by 9.3 percent. 

Prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles remained unchanged in April, but ores and minerals prices dipped by 1.7 percent, due to a 1.7 percent decrease in stone and sand prices. 

On a monthly basis, the WPI increased by 0.1 percent in April compared to March, attributed to a 0.7 percent rise in prices of agriculture and fishery products, driven by a 1.3 percent increase in the prices of agricultural products, and a 2.5 percent rise in the prices of fish and other fishing products. 

The prices of metal products, machinery and equipment increased by 0.2 percent driven by a 1.1 percent uptick in the prices of basic metals and a 0.1 percent increase in the prices of equipment transport. 

In a month-on-month comparison, the prices of ores and minerals increased by 0.1 percent, due to a 0.1 percent rise in the prices of stone and sand. 

The prices of other transportable commodities except metal products, machinery and equipment, and the prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles remained stable, and did not record any significant relative change in April. 

Global and regional inflation trends

Global headline inflation is set to keep moving down, with the World Bank projecting it to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026, “converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging markets and developing economies,” according to an International Monetary Fund report in January.

Across the Middle East, inflation patterns show notable divergence. Lebanon has seen a dramatic slowdown, with annual inflation dropping to 14.2 percent in March from 70.36 percent a year earlier. This sharp deceleration stems largely from exchange rate stabilization, as the Lebanese pound has maintained a steady rate of about 89,500 to the US dollar since mid-2023. 

“Inflation is projected to continue declining across MENA economies, remaining elevated only in few cases,” Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, stated in April.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s inflation eased by 1.15 percent year on year in January, driven by declines in food, housing, and transport costs, according to data from the National Planning Council.

In late 2024, Gulf economies experienced measured inflationary pressures. Data from the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf showed that overall inflation across GCC states rose by 1.7 percent year-on-year in October. 


Trump: India has offered US a trade deal with zero tariffs

Updated 15 May 2025
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Trump: India has offered US a trade deal with zero tariffs

RIYADH: US President Donald Trump said on Thursday in Doha that India had offered the US a trade deal with zero tariffs.

New Delhi is seeking to clinch a trade deal with the US within the 90-day pause on tariff hikes announced by Trump on April 9 for major trading partners, which had included a 26 percent tariff on India.

“It is very hard to sell in India, and they are offering us a deal where basically they are willing to literally charge us no tariffs,” Trump said in a meeting with executives in Doha.

The US is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totalling some $129 billion in 2024. The trade balance is currently in favour of India, which runs a $45.7 billion surplus with the US.


MP Materials, Ma’aden to jointly develop rare earths supply chain in Saudi

Updated 15 May 2025
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MP Materials, Ma’aden to jointly develop rare earths supply chain in Saudi

LONDON: US rare earths miner MP Materials has signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Arabia’s flagship mining company Ma’aden to jointly develop a rare earth supply chain in the Middle Eastern country.

The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the US-Saudi Investment Forum, where President Donald Trump secured a $600 billion investment from the Kingdom covering the energy, defense and mining sectors.

Saudi Arabia has been pushing to become a global critical minerals hub at a time when minerals processing is fast becoming a necessity for tech-focused economies looking to produce their own building blocks for AI, electric vehicles and other sectors.

Last month, Reuters reported Ma’aden was weighing a rare-earths partnership with at least one of four foreign firms, including MP Materials, China’s Shenghe Resources, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths or Canada’s Neo Performance Materials.

The partnership between MP Materials and Ma’aden would include mining, separation, refining and magnet production of rare earth minerals.

“Today’s announcement is an important first step toward rebalancing the global supply chain ... especially in robotics and physical AI — while deepening the strategic alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” said MP Materials CEO James Litinsky.

Ma’aden’s CEO Bob Wilt said the partnership was an integral step toward establishing mining as “the third pillar” of the Saudi economy.

Shares of MP Materials rose nearly 5 percent before the bell.


Syria’s finance minister says foreign investors welcome after US sanctions move

Updated 15 May 2025
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Syria’s finance minister says foreign investors welcome after US sanctions move

  • Syria ‘land of opportunities’ for investors, Barnieh says
  • Sectors include farming, oil, tourism, roads, ports, he says
  • Private sector to have central role in new Syrian state, he says
  • Barnieh says sanctions removal is just first step in Syria’s recovery

DAMASCUS: Syrian Finance Minister Yisr Barnieh made a call to global investors on Wednesday to come do business with Syria after US President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that he would lift all of Washington’s sanctions on the country.

“Syria today is a land of opportunities, with immense potential across every sector — from agriculture to oil, tourism, infrastructure, and transportation,” Barnieh said in an interview with Reuters at the Finance Ministry in Damascus.

“We envision a central role for the private sector in the new Syrian economy. The finance ministry’s role is not to spend indiscriminately or act as a regulatory enforcer over businesses, but rather to enable and support growth.”

A wall outside his office still bore the discolored outline of one of the many posters of former strongman Bashar Assad that used to hang in Syria’s public buildings before his ousting by Islamist rebels Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham last year.

Changes in Syria have been swift since Assad fled to Russia in December of last year.

Former rebel commander Ahmed Sharaa was appointed president, formed a government and had quick success garnering Gulf Arab support and getting most European sanctions lifted.

The stunning turn of events was capped by a meeting between Sharaa and Trump in Riyadh on Wednesday after Trump’s pledge to cease US sanctions imposed on Syria under Assad-family rule, measures widely seen as the biggest external obstacles to the country’s economic recovery.

Trump has not set out a timeline for removal.

“One of the most critical outcomes of lifting sanctions would be Syria’s reintegration into the global financial system,” Barnieh said.

“This would allow us to restore financial flows and attract investments, which are urgently needed across all sectors,” he said, adding that Syrian authorities have already seen strong interest from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and several EU countries, among others.

He noted that the government is undertaking a comprehensive overhaul of public financial management, including reforms to the tax system, customs, and banking — part of a broader effort to modernize an economy long burdened by an oversized public sector.

He also struck a cautioning tone, saying that the removal of sanctions would be just the first step in a years-long recovery for a country ruined by 14 years of war.

“The lifting of sanctions is not the final chapter,” he said.

“We cannot afford to become complacent. We are entering a new phase that demands real results and visible progress on the ground.”