WASHINGTON: Despite being gaffe-prone, getting up in years and barely heading out on the campaign trail, Democrat Joe Biden is leading in the polls as the coronavirus epidemic and economic crisis make the November presidential election a referendum on Donald Trump.
The COVID-19 outbreak has stripped Trump of his beloved campaign rallies but he has made the most of his White House pulpit to remain in the public eye.
The 77-year-old Biden, on the other hand, has held few campaign events, spending most of his time since mid-March at home in Wilmington, Delaware.
Biden’s sparse public schedule has minimized the risks of his catching the virus while at the same time reducing his chances of making any faux pas.
And if the polls are any indication, the Democratic candidate’s low-key style is paying off. The election website Real Clear Politics has Biden with a 7.7-point lead over Trump nationally.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, has correctly predicted the results of every US presidential election since 1984, including Trump’s upset 2016 victory.
His 2020 forecast? Biden, president Barack Obama’s two-term vice president, will win the November 3 vote.
“This has nothing to do with Joe Biden,” Lichtman said in an interview with AFP. “It’s not dependent on Donald Trump’s personality either. It’s based on the record.”
The professor bases his predictions on what he calls the 13 “Keys to the White House.”
Among them: How strong is the US economy? Is there social unrest? Is the president an incumbent? Is the president charismatic? Is his opponent?
Of this last “key,” Lichtman says “Biden doesn’t fit that bill.”
“He’s a very empathetic, sincere man but he’s not inspirational,” he said.
In late 2019, Lichtman had Trump in good shape to win re-election.
“What has happened since is he made the colossal mistake of thinking he can talk his way out of the crises that hit the country, the pandemic, the cries for social justice, the economic downturn,” Lichtman said. “That doesn’t work. And the result is a failed presidency.”
With more than 169,000 deaths and over 5.3 million COVID-19 cases, the United States is the worst-hit country in the world with an economy on its knees.
The killing of George Floyd, an African-American man, by a white police officer, triggered a summer of nationwide protests against racial injustice and police brutality.
While Trump’s handling of the virus outbreak and the protests has been widely criticized, Biden has been climbing in the polls.
The former vice president has been able to largely sit back and watch events unfold, with the Trump campaign accusing him of “hiding” in his Wilmington basement.
“By his almost reclusive campaign he has maintained the spotlight on President Trump,” said Christopher Arterton, professor emeritus of political management at George Washington University.
And Trump’s management of the crises facing the country has pushed many independent voters “from undecided to, ‘I’m not going to vote for him,’” Arterton said.
Despite Biden’s lead in the polls, neither professor is ready to say he has the election locked up, not in these uncertain times and with a candidate as unpredictable as Trump.
“He will do anything, he has no scruples,” Lichtman, an avowed Democrat, said of the Republican president.
Trump, 74, has suggested that Biden is senile and called him a puppet of the “radical left” who would somehow “hurt God.”
There are also three debates scheduled between the two men in September and October which could be the occasion for fireworks.
With Trump largely unable to expand his voter base, the real estate tycoon has been accused of trying to suppress the Democratic vote.
Lichtman said this could pose dangers for Democratic hopes of regaining the White House.
“My big worries about this election are two things that have nothing to do with the keys,” he said.
“One is voter suppression. Trump and his enablers are going to make it difficult for people to vote, particularly to vote by mail in a pandemic,” Lichtman said.
“And number two, Russian intervention. How effective is their intervention going to be? Because we know Donald Trump not only won’t do anything to stop it, he’ll welcome it again.
“Those are two wild cards. No system can take that into account.”
Trump grabs spotlight but reclusive Biden leads polls
https://arab.news/8frj5
Trump grabs spotlight but reclusive Biden leads polls
- Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, predicts that Biden will win the November 3 vote
UK welcomes ‘progress’ by Trump toward Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
LONDON: The British government on Tuesday welcomed the “progress” made by US President Donald Trump toward negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine following a call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
“This process must lead to a just and lasting peace for Ukraine,” a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer said after Trump spoke Putin about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes to ensure Russia can never launch an illegal invasion again.”
Fear at Antarctica base as researcher assaults colleague and makes threats
- ‘His behavior has escalated to a point that is deeply disturbing,’ said an email sent to South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper
CAPE TOWN: A member of a South African research team that is confined for more than a year at an isolated Antarctica base was put under psychological evaluation there after he allegedly assaulted and sexually harassed colleagues, government officials said.
The problems at the SANAE IV base were first reported by South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, which said it had seen an email from a team member to authorities last month claiming the man had attacked the base leader and made threats.
The email pleaded for help.
“His behavior has escalated to a point that is deeply disturbing,” the email said, according to The Sunday Times. “I remain deeply concerned about my own safety, constantly wondering if I might become the next victim.” The report said the man allegedly made a death threat.
South Africa’s Ministry of Environment, which oversees the research missions, said in a statement that the alleged assault on the base leader was reported on Feb. 27, and officials and counselors intervened remotely “to mediate and restore relationships at the base.” They were speaking with team members almost daily, it said.
“The alleged perpetrator has willingly participated in further psychological evaluation, has shown remorse and is willingly cooperative,” the ministry said, adding that he had written a formal apology to the victim of the alleged assault. It said the allegations were being investigated. No one was identified.
The nine-member team, which includes scientists, a doctor and engineers, is expected to stay at the base for about 13 months until next year, authorities said, living in close quarters through the hostile Antarctic winter, whose six months of darkness begin in June.
The base is on a cliff in Queen Maud Land and is surrounded by a glacial ice sheet, more than 4,000 km, from South Africa.
The next planned visit by a supply ship is in December, according to the South African National Antarctic Program. It takes the ship around 10 days to travel from Cape Town.
Authorities said they had decided not to evacuate anyone from SANAE IV, where the onset of unpredictable weather conditions meant the team was now confined to the base.
The ministry said all team members had undergone evaluations ahead of the trip to ensure they can cope with the “extreme nature of the environment in Antarctica” and the isolation and confinement, and no problems were identified.
“It is not uncommon that once individuals arrive at the extremely remote areas where the scientific bases are located, an initial adjustment to the environment is required,” it said.
Previous problems have been reported at another of South Africa’s remote research bases on Marion Island, a South African territory near Antarctica.
In 2017, a member of a research team there smashed a colleague’s room with an ax over an apparent love triangle, according to a report to South Africa’s parliament. Lawmakers said it appeared the researchers were living in highly stressful conditions.
The National Science Foundation, the federal agency that oversees the US Antarctic Program, published a report in 2022 in which 59 percent of women in the US program said they’d experienced harassment or assault while on research trips in Antarctica.
Ukraine would back ceasefire on energy attacks, Zelensky says
- “Our side (would) support this,” Zelensky told reporters
- Zelensky said he would back any proposal that led to a “stable and just peace“
KYIV: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday Ukraine would support a US proposal to stop its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, but warned that Russia was trying to delay the US-led negotiations and weaken Kyiv by making new demands.
The White House said earlier that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to US President Donald Trump’s proposal for a month-long halt on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as the two leaders spoke by phone on Tuesday.
“Our side (would) support this,” Zelensky told reporters during a quickly-organized online briefing, when asked about the idea of a moratorium on energy strikes.
Ukraine has used long-range combat drones to pound Russian oil infrastructure such as refineries in an effort to hurt its much larger foe, which has rained down missiles and drones far behind the front lines in Ukraine since the February 2022 full-scale invasion.
In particular, Russian strikes have hammered Ukrainian power stations, causing large-scale blackouts, and more recently also natural gas production sites.
Zelensky said he would back any proposal that led to a “stable and just peace.”
Moscow stopped short of giving Washington the full unconditional 30-day ceasefire it had sought.
Zelensky said he believed Russia was clearly opposed to the proposal, which Kyiv agreed to in principle at last week’s talks with US officials in Jeddah.
Zelensky told reporters that Russia had launched more than 1,300 guided bombs, eight missiles and nearly 600 long-range strike drones at Ukraine since the talks in Saudi Arabia.
Ukraine itself proposed the idea of ceasefire on energy infrastructure during the talks, he added.
“This was part of our proposal for the sky and for the sea. With the mediation of the American side, if they are the guarantors of control over the implementation of this ceasefire,” he said.
PHONE CALL DIPLOMACY
Zelensky said after the Putin-Trump phone call he spoke by telephone with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, both key European allies.
“I think it will be right that we will have a conversation with President Trump and we will know in detail what the Russians offered the Americans or what the Americans offered the Russians,” he said.
He also told reporters that he hoped Kyiv’s partners would not cut vital military assistance for Ukraine.
“We are in constant communication. I am confident that there will be no betrayal from our partners and that the assistance will continue,” he said.
He made the remark when asked about an earlier comment by Putin, who emphasized that any resolution of the conflict would require an end to all military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine.
Zelensky said the demand by Putin, as well as another seeking to curtail Ukraine’s campaign to draft civilians into the armed forces, looked aimed at weakening Ukraine.
Peru declares an emergency and deploys the army as violence surges in the capital
- Authorities will restrict freedom of assembly and movement during the 30 days state of emergency
LIMA: Peru’s president declared a state of emergency in the capital Monday and ordered the deployment of soldiers to help police address a surge of violence, amid widespread outcry a day after the killing of a popular singer.
President Dina Boluarte’s government published a decree saying that the state of emergency will last 30 days, and authorities will restrict some rights, including the freedom of assembly and movement. That means the police and the army would be able to detain people without a judicial order.
Peru has seen an increase of killings, violent extortion and attacks on public places in recent months. Police reported 459 killings from Jan. 1 to March 16, and 1,909 extortion reports in January alone. But outrage crested after the killing Sunday of Paul Flores, the 39-year-old lead singer of the cumbia band Armonia 10.
In Congress, opposition lawmakers requested a vote of no confidence against Interior Minister Juan José Santiváñez for what they say is a lack of a plan to fight rising violence. The vote is expected to be discussed in the Congress’ plenary later this week.
Flores was shot to death early Sunday when assailants attacked the bus he and bandmates were traveling after a concert in Lima. Cumbia is a Latin music style that people dance to the rhythm of drums, maracas and other instruments.
The attack against the popular singer was not the only violent event over the weekend. On Saturday, an object exploded at a restaurant in the capital, injuring at least 11 people.
Boluarte’s government previously decreed a state of emergency in an attempt to stem the violence between September and December.
Indonesia lawmakers to pass bill allowing more military in government
- The new draft adds more state agencies to the list, including the attorney general’s office, the state secretariat, the counter-terrorism agency and the narcotics agency
JAKARTA: Indonesia is set to pass revisions to a military law this week that will allow armed forces personnel to hold more civilian posts.
The changes were approved on Tuesday by the house committee overseeing military, defense and foreign policy and according to lawmakers will be put to a wider vote on Thursday of parliament, which is controlled by President Prabowo Subianto’s coalition.
Prabowo, a former defense minister and special forces commander who served under Suharto and was once his son-in-law, has expanded the armed forces’ role since taking power in October after winning the presidential election by a big margin. The bill includes a change introduced into a later draft requiring military officers to resign before assuming civilian roles, said Gavriel Putra Novanto, who presided over the committee’s meeting.
Current laws allow active soldiers to hold posts in organizations such as the defense ministry and state intelligence agency.
The new draft adds more state agencies to the list, including the attorney general’s office, the state secretariat, the counter-terrorism agency and the narcotics agency, Gavriel said. It also extends sitting officers’ retirement age.
The latest draft of the bill has not been made available to the public. Prabowo’s office has denied it could usher in a second “New Order” era.
Law Minister Supratman Andi Agtas said the revision was necessary due to current domestic and geopolitical challenges.
Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, parliament’s deputy speaker, denied the bill was being rushed through and said lawmakers had been transparent.
