PARIS: With elections due in countries representing half the world’s population and new technologies turbo-charging disinformation, 2024 will be a major stress test for politics in the age of AI.
2024 has been labelled a “make-or-break” year for democracy, with crucial votes due in more than 60 countries, including India, South Africa, Pakistan, Britain, Indonesia and the United States, as well as the European Union.
The first major test of how to survive an onslaught of AI-powered disinformation has already taken place.
Taiwan voters backed Lai Ching-te for president last week despite a massive disinformation campaign against him, which experts say was orchestrated by China.
Beijing regards Lai as a dangerous separatist for asserting Taiwan’s independence, and TikTok was flooded with conspiracy theories and derogatory statements about him in the run-up to the vote.
An AFP Fact-Check investigation found several such videos originated on Douyin, China’s version of the app.
How things pan out in other countries remains to be seen, however. Generative AI is threatening to exacerbate deepening trends of polarization and a loss of trust in the mainstream media.
Already last year, fake images of Donald Trump being arrested or Joe Biden announcing a general mobilization to support Ukraine have shown how far the technology has progressed.
The last, easy tells for fakery, notably, AI’s struggles with details such as fingers, are rapidly disappearing, blunting detection mechanisms.
And the stakes are high.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) ranked disinformation as its number one threat over the next two years.
Undermining the legitimacy of elections could lead to internal conflicts and terrorism, and even “state collapse” in extreme cases, it warned.
AI-powered disinformation is being deployed by groups linked in particular to Russia, China and Iran, seeking to “shape and disrupt” elections in rival countries, said analysis group Recorded Future.
The EU elections in June will likely be hit by campaigns aimed at undermining the cohesion of the bloc and its support for Ukraine, said Julien Nocetti, a Russia specialist for the French Institute of International Relations.
It would not be the first time.
The “Doppelganger operation” launched in early 2022 used clones of well-known media and public institutions to spread pro-Russian talking points, particularly about Ukraine.
French authorities and Meta, owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, linked it to the Kremlin.
Paradoxically, repressive regimes could also use the threat of disinformation to justify greater censorship and other rights violations, the WEF said.
States hope to fight back with legislation, but they are working at a glacial pace compared to the exponential progress in AI.
The forthcoming Digital India Act and the EU’s Digital Services Act will require platforms to target disinformation and remove illegal content. Experts are skeptical, however, about their enforcement capabilities.
China and the EU are both working on comprehensive AI laws, but they will take time. The EU law is unlikely to be completed before 2026.
In October, US President Joe Biden issued an executive order on AI safety standards in October.
But critics say it lacks teeth, while some lawmakers fear that over-regulation will hamper their tech industry and benefit rivals.
Under pressure to act, tech firms have introduced their own initiatives.
Meta says advertisers will have to reveal if their content used generative AI, while Microsoft has a tool for political candidates to authenticate their content with a digital watermark.
But the platforms increasingly rely for verification on... AI.
“Automating the fight against disinformation doesn’t seem like the best way to understand hostile strategies,” said Nocetti.
Election wave and AI disinformation raise stakes in 2024
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Election wave and AI disinformation raise stakes in 2024
- 2024 has been labelled a “make-or-break” year for democracy, with crucial votes due in more than 60 countries
- Votes are expected in India, South Africa, Pakistan, Britain, Indonesia, United States, as well as the European Union
Pakistan says China has offered to sell new military equipment, including J-35 fighter jets
- Pakistan says Beijing has offered to sell 40 advanced J-35 fighter jets, ballistic missile defense systems to Islamabad
- Pakistan and India have sought to bolster their defense capabilities after engaging in four days of conflict last month
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s government this month announced that China has offered to sell it its new military equipment, including 40 of its advanced fifth-generation J-35 fighter jets and ballistic missile defense systems following Islamabad’s armed conflict with India in May.
Nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan engaged in armed conflict for four days from May 7-10, pounding each other with artillery fire, fighter jets, drones and missiles. Fighting stopped on May 10 when US President Donald Trump announced both countries had agreed to a ceasefire.
Pakistan said its air force downed six Indian fighter jets using Chinese J-10C aircraft on the night of May 6. On May 31, the chief of defense staff of the Indian Armed Forces, Anil Chauhan, confirmed India lost an unspecified number of fighter jets in clashes with Pakistan last month.
Both countries have since then sought to bolster their defense capabilities and procure the latest arms as tensions continue to simmer between both nations. Pakistan’s government said in a social media post on June 7 that China has also offered to sell KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft, as well as HQ-19 ballistic missile defense systems to Pakistan.
“Under Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan has achieved several major diplomatic achievements including the offer of 40 fifth-generation J-35 stealth aircraft, KJ-500 AWACS, HQ-19 defense systems from China, and the deferment of $3.7 billion in debt,” the Government of Pakistan wrote on social media account X.
As per a report in the international news publication Bloomberg on Monday, the shares of Chinese defense companies rallied this week after Pakistan’s announcement of Beijing’s offer to sell its aircraft. The report said shares of AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company— the maker of China’s J-35 stealth fighter jet— soared by their 10 percent daily limit in Shanghai, extending gains for the third consecutive session on Monday.
The shares of another China-based company, Aerospace Nanhu Electronic Information Technology Co., soared by 15 percent, the report added.
The shares of Chinese arms makers have surged since Pakistan said its air force downed six Indian fighter jets, using Chinese J-10C aircraft, on the night of May 6. The two countries had engaged in armed conflict that day after India struck what it called “terrorist” camps in Pakistan.
The J-35 stealth fighter jet was developed by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and publicly unveiled at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow. Its sale to Pakistan would mark China’s first export of the fifth-generation jet, which has advanced stealth capabilities for penetrating the airspace of an adversary.
On the other hand, the KJ-500 aircraft would improve Pakistan’s radar coverage, and its smaller size allows for nimbler use in regional clashes, the report said. The HQ-19 surface-to-air missile systems would enhance the country’s ability to intercept ballistic missiles.
“In a sign of how the conflict is changing dynamics, Indonesia— which has relied on aircraft from makers in the US, Russia and elsewhere— is mulling China’s offer of J-10 jets,” Bloomberg reported. “Southeast Asia’s largest economy has bought munitions and air surveillance systems from China in the past, but not jet fighters.”
Tensions reached a boiling point when India blamed Pakistan for supporting an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22. Gunmen had killed 26 Indian tourists in Pahalgam resort. New Delhi, which has always blamed Pakistan for supporting militant outfits in the part of Kashmir it governs, accused Islamabad of having a hand in the attack.
Pakistan denied the allegations and called for an international probe into the incident.
Though the fragile ceasefire continues to hold, ties between the two countries remain strained. New Delhi and Islamabad have both sent delegations to world capitals in hopes of swaying international opinion in their favor.
Pakistan set to unveil IMF-backed budget today, aimed at balancing growth and stability
- Pakistan missed its growth target as agriculture, industry underperformed in the outgoing fiscal year
- Analysts expect the government to focus on fiscal consolidation by widening the tax base this year
KARACHI: Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is set to unveil an International Monetary Fund-backed federal budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year in parliament today, with economists describing it as a delicate balancing act aimed at preserving macroeconomic stability while reigniting growth.
The budget comes a day after the release of the Economic Survey of Pakistan, which showed that the country missed its annual growth target, expanding by 2.7 percent against a goal of 3.7 percent.
Economists say the government is now walking a “tightrope” as it prepares its fiscal roadmap for the coming year.
“The upcoming budget is expected to be fiscally disciplined, aiming to strike a delicate balance between economic stability and inclusive growth,” said Sana Tawfik, head of research at Karachi-based brokerage Arif Habib Limited.
Pakistan’s agriculture sector was a major drag on overall performance in the outgoing fiscal year, growing just 0.56 percent, while the industrial sector, especially large-scale manufacturing, also lagged.
The services sector fared slightly better with an estimated 2.9 percent growth. For the upcoming year, the government is targeting 4.2 percent GDP growth, according to Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal.
In the new budget, businesses across sectors, including textiles, real estate, capital markets alongside foreign investors, are hoping for rationalization of key taxes such as the sales tax, capital gains tax, super tax and the levy on salaried income.
The government, however, is expected to stay the course on reforms mandated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which have helped stabilize the economy after years of high debt and dollar shortages.
“With IMF engagement in focus, the government is likely to prioritize fiscal consolidation, emphasizing revenue enhancement through broadening the tax base,” Tawfik said.
The IMF has pressed Pakistan to bring more sectors into the tax net, particularly agriculture, real estate and retail.
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s administration has already withdrawn subsidies and raised electricity tariffs in recent years to boost revenue, key conditions under the IMF program.
“While development spending may remain contained due to limited fiscal space, the overall direction appears to favor continuity of reform,” Tawfik said.
Mushtaq Khan, former chief economist at Bank Alfalah Limited, said the government is expected to wage a “war on cash” in the coming fiscal year by promoting a cashless economy.
He added the Sharif administration now appears more “confident” as his coalition government has seemingly gained political strength in the wake of the recent military standoff with India.
Pakistan ready to ‘fight’ in Asian Cup football qualifier against Myanmar today
- Head coach Stephen Constantine says players have trained hard and will fight to win the game in Yangon
- Pakistan lost their opening Group E match to Syria but have shown signs of progress under Constantine
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s national football team is determined to fight to win in their crucial AFC Asian Cup 2027 qualifying clash against Myanmar today, Wednesday, head coach Stephen Constantine said, as the side looks to build on the momentum of last year’s improved performances.
Speaking at a pre-match press conference in Yangon a day earlier, the Pakistani coach acknowledged the challenges facing his squad but remained upbeat about their preparation and intent.
“For Pakistan, all of the games are difficult,” he said, according to a statement circulated by the Pakistan Football Federation. “But we have a good group of players. They have worked hard over the last few days and we will come here to try to win the game.”
Pakistan, who lost 2-0 to Syria in their opening Group E match, have shown signs of progress in recent international fixtures, including a spirited display in that match and a stronger showing overall in 2024 compared to previous years.
Constantine highlighted the importance of continuing that upward trajectory.
“We played quite well against Syria despite the result,” he said. “Every single game you play for Pakistan is important, even friendlies.”
Myanmar, who won their last match, will have home advantage at Yangon’s Thuwunna Stadium and are widely seen as favorites. But the Pakistani coach said his team remained focused and undeterred.
“They will be favorites for this game,” he said. “But we will fight like we do in every game and we will try to get the result that we want, which is to win. We didn’t come here to lose.”
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM Pakistan Standard Time (PST) today.
Pakistan to kickstart post-Hajj flight operations today to bring back pilgrims
- State media says Pakistan International Airlines’ flight carrying 307 pilgrims will leave Jeddah for Islamabad
- Over 88,000 Pakistani pilgrims under government scheme to return to country via 362 flights, says state media
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will kickstart its post-Hajj flight operations to bring thousands of pilgrims back to the country from today, Tuesday, state-run media reported, adding that they would continue till July 10.
Pakistan concluded its 33-day pre-Hajj flight operation last month, transporting more than 115,000 pilgrims to Saudi Arabia under both the government and private schemes for the annual Islamic pilgrimage.
This year’s Hajj pilgrimage took place from June 4 to June 9, drawing millions of pilgrims to the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah. Pakistan was among several countries managing large-scale contingents during the annual religious gathering.
“Post-Hajj flight operation to bring back Pakistani pilgrims is starting from Tuesday,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan reported on Monday, quoting Secretary Religious Affairs Dr. Syed Ata ur Rehman.
Sharing details, Rehman said Pakistan International Airlines’ flight PK-732 carrying 307 pilgrims will leave Jeddah for Islamabad.
“Similarly, the first post-Hajj flight from Madinah PK-7030 will depart for Lahore on Thursday,” Radio Pakistan said. “The national flag carrier will airlift 307 pilgrims.”
The Pakistani official said the flight operation would continue till July 10 during which a total of over 88,000 pilgrims under the government scheme will be transported to Pakistan via 362 flights.
“Meanwhile, Dr. Syed Ata ur Rehman highlighted that elaborate arrangements have been made for smooth transportation of the pilgrims back to their homeland,” the state broadcaster said.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday thanked Saudi King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the Kingdom’s “exceptional organization” of Hajj 2025.
“Thank you for making this spiritual experience more comfortable and memorable for all those who performed Hajj this year,” Sharif wrote on social media platform X.
Pakistan likely to hike defense spending but slash overall budget in 2025-26
- Media reports say government likely to present Rs17.6 trillion ($62.45 billion) budget for budget 2025-26
- Analysts expect increase of around 20 percent in defense budget likely offset by cuts in development spending
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will unveil its annual federal budget for the coming fiscal year later on Tuesday, seeking to kickstart growth while finding resources for an expected hike in defense expenditure following the conflict with India last month.
Islamabad will also have to contend with remaining within the discipline of its International Monetary Fund program and the uncertainty from new trade tariffs being imposed by the United States, its biggest export market.
Media reports say the government is likely to present a 17.6 trillion rupee ($62.45 billion) budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, down 6.7 percent from this fiscal year. It has projected a fiscal deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP, against a targeted 5.9 percent deficit in 2024-25, the reports say.
Analysts said they expect an increase of around 20 percent in the defense budget, likely offset by cuts in development spending.
Pakistan allocated 2.1 trillion Pakistani rupees ($7.45 billion) for defense in the outgoing fiscal year, including $2 billion for equipment and other assets. An additional 563 billion rupees ($1.99 billion) was set aside for military pensions, which are not counted within the official defense budget.
India’s defense spending in its 2025–26 (April-March) fiscal year was set at $78.7 billion, a 9.5 percent increase from the previous year, including pensions and $21 billion earmarked for equipment. It has indicated it will step up expenditure following the May conflict with Pakistan.
The government of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has projected 4.2 percent economic growth in 2025-26, saying it has steadied the economy, which had looked at risk of defaulting on its debts as recently as 2023. Growth this fiscal year is likely to be 2.7 percent, against an initial target of 3.6 percent set in the budget last year.
Pakistan’s growth lags far behind the region. In 2024, South Asian countries grew by an average of 5.8 percent and 6.0 percent growth is expected in 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank.
RATE CUTS NOT ENOUGH
Expansion of the economy should be aided by a sharp drop in the cost of borrowing, the government says, after a succession of interest rate cuts by the central bank. But economists warn that monetary policy alone may not be enough, with fiscal constraints and IMF-mandated reforms still weighing on investment.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Monday that he wanted to avoid Pakistan’s boom and bust cycles of the past.
“The macroeconomic stability that we have achieved, we want to absolutely stay the course,” he said. “This time around we are very, very clear that we do not want to squander the opportunity.”
The budget is expected to prioritize expanding the tax base, enforcing agriculture income tax laws, and reducing government subsidies to industry, to meet the terms of a $7 billion IMF bailout signed last summer. Just 1.3 percent of the population paid income tax in 2024, according to the tax authorities, with agriculture and the retail sector largely outside of the tax net.
The IMF has urged Pakistan to widen the tax base through reforms which include taxing agriculture, retail, and real estate.
Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that he expected the revenue target for 2025-26 will be missed.
“The shortfall will mostly be owing to lack of optimal implementation of announced measures as well as absence of meaningful structural reforms to widen the tax net in general,” said Mobeen.
($1 = 281.8400 Pakistani rupees)
