Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?

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Fires burn as a result of rockets launched from Lebanon into northern Israel, next to the city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border, on June 3, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)
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Updated 06 June 2024
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Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?

  • In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the violence has expanded both in scope and intensity in recent weeks
  • Since October, at least 455 people have died in Lebanon, including 88 civilians, and at least 14 soldiers and 11 civilians in Israel

DUBAI: Tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia have continued to escalate since violence along the shared border first erupted in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that sparked the Gaza conflict.

In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the low-intensity conflict has expanded both in scope and intensity in recent weeks, leading to fears of an imminent full-scale war.

The violence since early October has killed at least 455 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but including 88 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the army.

INNUMBERS

• 4,900 Attacks launched by Israel against southern Lebanon since Oct. 7.

• 1,100 Attacks by Hezbollah against Israel and Israeli occupied territories in Lebanon. Source: ACLED

Israel has carried out nearly 4,900 attacks in southern Lebanon since Oct. 7, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project.

ACLED says Hezbollah has launched around 1,100 attacks on Israel as well as territories it has occupied in Lebanon over the same period.

Israeli strikes have made the entire border area in southern Lebanon a no-go zone, leading to the displacement of some 90,000 people, according to the UN migration agency, IOM. The same is true in northern Israel, where Hezbollah attacks have displaced 80,000 residents.




Israelis evacuated from northern areas near the Lebanese border due to ongoing cross-border tensions, rally near the northern Amiad Kibbutz, demanding to return home on May 23, 2024. (AFP)

Since the tit-for-tat attacks began, Lebanese officials and communities living along the border have been braced for a potential escalation into a conflict of a scale not seen since the 2006 war.

In recent months, influential Israeli officials have been calling on the government to mount a new military operation to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday that Israel is close to making a decision regarding Hezbollah’s daily attacks, according to the Times of Israel newspaper.




Israel's military Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi (C) walks among army officers during a situational assessment on the Lebanese border area on February 1, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israeli and Hezbollah forces. (Israeli Army handout via AFP) 

“We are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made, and the IDF is prepared and very ready for this decision,” Halevi said during an assessment with military officials and Fire Commissioner Eyal Caspi, at an army base in Kiryat Shmona.

“We have been attacking for eight months, and Hezbollah is paying a very, very high price. It has increased its strengths in recent days and we are prepared after a very good process of training … to move to an attack in the north.”

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett tore into Benjamin Netanyahu’s government this week, claiming the north of Israel had been abandoned. “We must save the north,” he said in a statement. “The Galilee is going up in flames. The fire is spreading.




Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, shown in this photo taken on January 15, 2024, claims that the north of Israel had been abandoned by the Netanyahu government. (AFP/File photo)

“Beautiful and flourishing places have turned into heaps of rubble. Some residents who were evacuated are already planning their lives elsewhere. This is a grave strategic event and can in no way be normalized.”

Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, has said the militia’s campaign will continue as long as the war rages in Gaza.

In a speech last week, he said the attacks are “pressuring Israel,” and that while the battle concerns Palestine, it also concerns “the future of Lebanon and its water and oil resources.”

Should a full-scale war break out, Nasrallah said Hezbollah has “surprises” in store for Israel. Indeed, many region watchers expect any conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to be far more devastating and costly for both sides than the war in Gaza.




Hassan Nasrallah (2nd from R), leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, met with Iranian officials as Hezbollah supporters braced for a spike, right, in Israeli reprisals. (AFP)

Nasrallah’s comments followed statements by Yaov Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, who warned Lebanon would “pay the price” for Hezbollah’s actions, saying “if you will continue, we will accelerate.”

Although both sides have raised the rhetorical ante, Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg believes an all-out war with Hezbollah would be a disastrous overreach for Israel.

“Israel cannot afford a two-front war,” he told Arab News. “That is not sustainable. Hezbollah will be able to reach the Israeli heartland with its rockets. Israel is already imploding. More than 100,000 Israelis seem to have been permanently displaced.”

Nevertheless, if Prime Minister Netanyahu were to present a new war in Lebanon as the only viable option to allow displaced Israelis to return home, then “there is a good possibility that he can rally enough support,” said Goldberg.

“In a way, a war in Lebanon is something Israel’s professional warmongers have been pitching for years. Also, Israel is really hard up for solutions that would return people to the north. So popular support is there to be tapped.”




Map showing the border between Lebanon and Israel, where tit-for-tat bombardment between Israeli and Hezbollah forces had displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides. (AFP)

Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden for energy and investment, who brokered the maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel in late 2022, recently proposed a road map to peace between Israel and Hezbollah.

“I’m not expecting peace, everlasting peace, between Hezbollah and Israel,” Hochstein said in an interview with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in March.

“But if we can reach a set of understandings and ... take away some of the impetus for conflict and establish for the first time ever, a recognized border between the two, I think that will go a long way.”

Hezbollah, however, has conditioned any agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza, arguing any deal would require the consent of both parties.

Michael Young, author and senior editor at Carnegie Middle East, believes that despite its continued provocations, Hezbollah does not want a full-scale war with Israel.

“Everything they’ve shown, up till now, proves that they are avoiding one at all costs,” Young told Arab News. “Sure, they have escalated in response to Israeli escalations, but clearly they are not looking for one.

“If there is war, I don’t think there will be support from large segments of Lebanese society, and Hezbollah knows this. Even though there is anger with Israel, they will not support one.

“There is criticism from outside the Shiite community. The reason why Hezbollah is careful not to engage in a full-scale war is that it knows support from society will dissolve very quickly.”

Hezbollah on Tuesday said one of its members who lived in the Naqoura area was killed in an Israeli strike, and that its fighters launched “a slew of explosive-laden drones” at Israeli positions in the annexed Golan Heights in retaliation for the attack on the coastal town.




People pray during the funeral of the two brothers, Ali and Mohammed Qassem, who were killed by an Israeli strike in the Lebanese village of Houla near the border with Israel on June 2, 2024. (REUTERS)

It also claimed other attacks on Israeli troops and positions.

The Israeli army said in a statement that “fighter jets struck a Hezbollah terrorist” in Naqoura as well as hitting other sites.

Over the weekend, Hezbollah said its fighters had mounted a rocket attack against an Israeli army base in the border town of Kiryat Shmona, “scoring direct hits, igniting a fire and destroying parts of it,” according to militia statements.

The Israeli army confirmed the attack had taken place, with images of damaged infrastructure published by local media.

On Sunday night, the social media account of Green Southerners, a Lebanese civil society group dedicated to preserving national heritage, released videos purportedly showing massive fires around the border village of Al-Adisa.

The group claimed the fires were caused by Israel’s use of the incendiary weapon white phosphorus, and accused Israel of committing an act of “ecocide,” as the fires destroyed trees, farmland and animal habitats.




An Israeli army soldier artillery shells at a position near the border with Lebanon in the upper Galilee region of northern Israel . Lebanon has accused Israel of using controversial white phosphorus rounds, in attacks authorities say have harmed civilians and the environment. (AFP)

Twenty four hours later, massive fires were ignited by suspected Hezbollah attacks on the Israeli side of the border around Kiryat Shmona. Civilians were ordered to evacuate as firefighters battled the flames.

Israeli officials said more than 2,500 acres of land were affected by the fires, claiming it could take years for the land to recover.

On Monday, Hezbollah said it had fired Katyusha rockets toward Israeli bases in the occupied Golan Heights. For the first time since the outbreak of violence in October, the militia said it had launched a squadron of drones.

The Israeli military confirmed the attacks, stating it had intercepted one drone carrying explosives while two others fell in northern Israel.

For as long as Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza rages and Hezbollah continues to pose a threat to the towns and villages of northern Israel, the potential for escalation remains high




A Lebanese firefighter from the Islamic Sanitary Committee douses a fire that swept over fields hit by Israeli shelling in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 3, 2024. (AFP) 

The consequences, however, would be severe for all parties.

“I think Hezbollah has demonstrated it is committed to tit for tat,” said Israeli analyst Goldberg. “If Israel invades — and invade it must, if it wants a war — I think Hezbollah will likely retaliate in kind.”

And although Hezbollah has the means to cause significant damage to Israeli cities with its arsenal of Iranian-supplied weapons, it is crisis-wracked Lebanon that has the most to lose in the event of a full-scale war.

Indeed, the 2019 financial crisis and the failure to establish a new government has plunged much of the population into poverty, left public services and infrastructure in tatters, and even risked reopening old sectarian wounds.

“Should there be a war, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to put Lebanon back together as it was or even as it is today,” said Young of Carnegie Middle East.

“Already the sectarian social contract is falling apart. How do you do this after a very destructive war?”


 


NATO chiefs to discuss Ukraine security guarantees

Updated 6 sec ago
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NATO chiefs to discuss Ukraine security guarantees

  • Few details have leaked on the virtual meeting of military chiefs from NATO’s 32 member countries

Brussels, Belgium: NATO military chiefs were set Wednesday to discuss the details of eventual security guarantees for Ukraine, pushing ahead the flurry of global diplomacy aiming to broker an end to Russia’s war.
But even as diplomatic efforts continued Wednesday, Russian forces claimed fresh advances on the ground and Ukrainian officials reported more deaths from Moscow’s missiles.
Few details have leaked on the virtual meeting of military chiefs from NATO’s 32 member countries, which is due to start at 2:30 p.m. (1230 GMT).
But on Tuesday evening top US officer Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held talks with European military chiefs on the “best options for a potential Ukraine peace deal,” a US defense official told AFP.
US President Donald Trump brought Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders to the White House Monday, three days after his landmark encounter with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
Trump, long a fierce critic of the billions of dollars in US support to Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022, earlier said European nations were “willing to put people on the ground” to secure any settlement. He ruled out sending US troops but suggested it would provide air support instead.
But while Trump said Putin had agreed to meet Zelensky and accept some Western security guarantees for Ukraine, Kyiv and Western capitals have responded cautiously, as many of the details remain vague.
Russia’s defense ministry said on Telegram Wednesday that its troops had captured the villages of Sukhetske and Pankivka in the embattled Donetsk region.
They are near a section of the front where the Russian army broke through Ukrainian defenses last week, between the logistics hub of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
In the eastern Kharkiv region, the prosecutor’s office said a Russian drone strike on a civilian vehicle had killed two people, aged 70 and 71.
Russian glide bombs hit housing in the eastern Ukrainian town of Kostiantynivka overnight, trapping as many as four people under rubble, said the town’s military administration chief Sergiy Gorbunov.
And Russia aerial attacks on the northeastern town of Okhtyrka in the Sumy region wounded at least 14 people, including three children, according to regional governor Oleg Grygorov.
Zelensky said these latest strikes showed “the need to put pressure on Moscow,” including through sanctions.


Syrian, Israeli diplomats met in Paris to discuss de-escalation: Syrian state media

Updated 20 August 2025
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Syrian, Israeli diplomats met in Paris to discuss de-escalation: Syrian state media

  • Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer attended the meeting on Tuesday, along with Syria’s intelligence chief, Syrian state television said

DAMASCUS: Syria’s foreign minister met with an Israeli delegation in Paris to discuss de-escalation and the situation in Druze-majority Sweida province after deadly sectarian violence last month, state media reported Wednesday.
Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer attended the meeting on Tuesday, along with Syria’s intelligence chief, Syrian state television said, citing an unnamed government source.
The meeting discussed “de-escalation and non-interference in Syria’s internal affairs” and addressed monitoring the Sweida ceasefire announced by the United States last month, state news agency SANA said.
“Both sides affirmed their commitment to the unity of Syrian territory, their rejection of any projects aiming to divide it,” and emphasized that Sweida and its Druze citizens are an integral part of Syria, the broadcaster reported the source as saying.
A week of violence began on July 13 with clashes between Druze fighters and Sunni Bedouin, but rapidly escalated, drawing in government forces, with Israel also carrying out strikes.
Israel, which has its own Druze community, has said it acted to defend the minority group as well as to enforce its own demands for the demilitarization of southern Syria.
“These talks are taking place under US mediation, as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving the unity and integrity of its territory,” SANA said, adding they resulted in “understandings that support stability in the region.”
Israel and Syria have technically remained at war since 1948.
As an Islamist-led offensive late last year toppled longtime Syrian ruler Bashar Assad, Israel deployed troops to the UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights which has separated Israeli and Syrian forces since the armistice that followed the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.
State television said “the two sides discussed the need to reach a clear mechanism to reactivate the 1974 disengagement agreement... and establish a more stable environment.”
Discussions also addressed the humanitarian situation in southern Syria, with both parties agreeing on “the need to intensify assistance for the people of Sweida and the Bedouin,” it reported.
Hundreds demonstrated in Sweida on Saturday, calling for self-determination and some raising Israeli flags and accusing Damascus of imposing a blockade, something officials have denied, pointing to the entry of several aid convoys.
Paris hosted a similar meeting between Shaibani and Dermer last month, while a diplomatic source previously told AFP that other face-to-face meetings were held in Baku.
US envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack said on X late Tuesday that he met with Israeli Druze spiritual leader Mowafaq Tarif, discussing Sweida “and how to bring together the interests of all parties, de-escalate tensions, and build understanding.”


Attack on Darfur hospital kills one: MSF

Updated 20 August 2025
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Attack on Darfur hospital kills one: MSF

  • The hospital in Zalingei, capital of Central Darfur state, was attacked by armed relatives of a patient who had died of a gunshot wound

KHARTOUM: An armed assault on a hospital in the war-ravaged Darfur region of Sudan killed one person, medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said Wednesday, adding it had been forced to suspend operations.
Five people were also wounded in last week's attack, one of them a health worker supported by MSF, it added.
Since the war between Sudan's regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in April 2023, more than 120 aid workers have been killed, according to the United Nations.
"Humanitarian needs in Sudan have reached unprecedented levels. Yet those who step forward to help -- our frontline aid workers -- are being attacked, detained, harassed and even killed," UN humanitarian coordinator Luca Renda said Tuesday.
The hospital in Zalingei, capital of Central Darfur state, was attacked by armed relatives of a patient who had died of a gunshot wound. They then clashed with other armed individuals.
A hand grenade went off in front of the emergency room, causing the casualties.
The facility was the only referral hospital serving the area's population of around half a million, who are currently facing a deadly cholera outbreak.
According to Sudan's doctors' union, 90 percent of the country's hospitals have been forced to close at some point during the war. Many have been repeatedly bombed, stormed by fighters and looted of all supplies.
Doctors have themselves been attacked and forced to operate on fighters at gunpoint.
Nearly 25 million people in Sudan face dire hunger, with millions cut off from life-saving aid.


UAE aircraft dispatched to battle wildfires in Montenegro

Updated 20 August 2025
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UAE aircraft dispatched to battle wildfires in Montenegro

DUBAI: The United Arab Emirates said it has dispatched a firefighting aircraft to join efforts to extinguish wildfires in the Republic of Montenegro.

“The team is actively working to combat fires across multiple areas of the country,” reported state-run WAM News Agency. 

The aircraft departed Abu Dhabi on Monday for Podgorica carrying essential equipment and supplies.

The decision reflects the “solidarity of the UAE’s leadership and people with the government and people of Montenegro in addressing the unprecedented wildfire disaster,” WAM added.


Israeli military will call up 50,000 reservists as it plans new phase of war in Gaza

Updated 20 August 2025
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Israeli military will call up 50,000 reservists as it plans new phase of war in Gaza

  • An Israeli military official says the country’s top generals have approved plans to call up tens of thousands of reservists in order to begin a new phase of operations in Gaza
  • The call-up notices could be sent in the coming days, with reservists to report for duty in September, the military official said

JERUSALEM: An Israeli military official said on Wednesday that the country’s top generals had approved plans to call up tens of thousands of reservists in order to begin a new phase of operations in some of Gaza’s most densely populated areas.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity in line with military regulations, the official said that the military will be operating in parts of Gaza City where the Israeli military has not yet operated and where Hamas is still active.
Israeli troops are already operating in the Zeitoun and Jabaliya neighborhoods of Gaza City in order to prepare the groundwork for the expanded operation, which is expected to receive approval from the chief of staff in the coming days.
It remains unclear when the operation will begin. The official said 50,000 reservists will be called up in the coming month, nearly doubling the number of active reservists to 120,000.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this month that the objective was to secure the release of the remaining hostages and ensure Hamas and other militants can never again threaten Israel.
Hamas-led militants started the war when they attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251. Most of the hostages have been released in ceasefires or other deals. Hamas says it will only free the rest in exchange for a lasting ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal.
The planned offensive into Gaza City and the central camps has heightened international condemnation of Israel and fueled fears of another mass displacement among Palestinians.
Hundreds of thousands of displaced people are sheltering in the city and its holds some of the last remnants of critical infrastructure remaining in Gaza.
Mediators and Hamas say they have agreed to cease-fire terms, but Israel’s response remains unclear as members of Netanyahu’s coalition oppose a phased deal that doesn’t “complete the defeat of Hamas.”