Sunday elections trigger harsh debates within Turkiye’s flailing opposition

People walk past a newsagents a day after the presidential election, in Istanbul, Turkiye, Monday, May 15, 2023. (AP Photo)
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Updated 15 May 2023
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Sunday elections trigger harsh debates within Turkiye’s flailing opposition

  • Outcome is best-case scenario for Erdogan, analysts say
  • President’s alliance gains absolute majority in parliament

ANKARA: After neither side passed the threshold required for an outright win in Sunday’s elections, Turkiye’s incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will face his challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a second runoff vote on May 28. So the longest two weeks in Turkish political history has just begun.

Receiving about 26.7 million votes, Erdogan obtained about 49.4 percent of the ballot, while his rival’s 24.4 million votes counted for 44.9 percent.

Erdogan’s electoral alliance secured an absolute majority in the parliament, getting around 325 seats out of 600.

With a stronger-than-expected showing, Erdogan’s party, however, got its lowest share of votes for 20 years, mainly linked to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Far rightwing parties also entered parliament, including Islamist-Kurdish Huda-Par, as part of the ruling government’s coalition. Turkish nationalism showed strength across Anatolia — triggering fears among some that there would be a considerable decline in democracy if Erdogan wins another term.

The opposition bloc was not able to secure the 360 seats needed to bring about a referendum for ending the current executive presidency and switching to a strengthened parliamentary system.

The outcome represents a best-case scenario for Erdogan, said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of London-based Teneo Intelligence.

The president “has now a clear psychological lead against the opposition. Getting to a second round was Erdogan’s main electoral strategy and is now well-positioned to prevail in the runoff on May 28,” said Piccoli.

Erdogan is now expected to focus his electoral strategy on issues including the threat of political instability, national security requirements and potential governance problems in case the holder of the parliamentary majority does not overlap with the president’s party.

The areas Kilicdaroglu received his highest percentage of votes came from Kurdish-majority cities, especially Tunceli (80 percent), Sirnak (75 percent), Hakkari (72 percent) and Diyarbakir (71.8 percent).

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, argued that Kilicdaroglu has always faced an uphill battle against Erdogan.

Erdogan controls many Turkish institutions from courts to electoral boards, he told Arab News.

He said 90 percent of Turkish media “is under the control of pro-Erdogan businesses in a country where 80 percent of citizens cannot read a foreign language.”

Cagaptay said Erdogan “can create a post-truth narrative for the electorate. All of these were part of advantages for Erdogan and it helped him to close the gap with Kilicdaroglu since last year and deliver a competitive race.”

Cagaptay argued that elections has not been “fair in Turkiye for a long time. But the race and the vote are still free.”

In terms of the economy, Cagaptay thinks that in national elections, Erdogan knew that he would have to deliver a sense of prosperity and growth.

“Erdogan has never won national elections while not delivering growth,” Cagaptay added.

He said the president “delivered a remarkable growth for 15 years at a time when Turkiye’s neighbors were failing economically, which helped him build a strong base of devoted supporters and he lifted them out of poverty.”

“That is one of the reasons he reset ties with the Gulf that drew huge investment flows from those countries, together with money coming from Russia,” said Cagaptay.

“These funds, which were generously handed out for social security benefits and for huge wage increases, stabilized Erdogan’s public support and helped his popularity,” he said.

It is still unclear whether the opposition alliance can recover from Sunday’s electoral failure and regain the public trust. With the opposition’s self-confidence in total ruin after Sunday’s vote, the second round results look to favor Erdogan.

Some experts even drew attention to the possibility of breakaways within the opposition camp, especially the right-wing Good Party, having lost votes to the ultra-nationalistic camp, which may leave the Nation Alliance after the second runoff.

On Sunday night, Kilicdaroglu talked on the phone with the ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan, the third presidential candidate, who got 5.2 percent of the votes, and who may be a kingmaker.

Whoever Ogan endorses will likely have the upper hand in the second runoff.

Ogan is a keen critic of the opposition leader for his indirect alliance with the pro-Kurdish bloc. The Kurdish political movement strongly supported Kilicdaroglu in Turkiye’s Kurdish heartland in the southeast and eastern cities.

Dr. Berk Esen, a political scientist from Sabanci University in Istanbul, thinks the most conservative Turkish parliament was formed following Sunday’s elections, which will be a “distorted” parliament composition that does not reflect voter behavior.

Esen blamed Kilicdaroglu for the opposition’s electoral failure because the opposition candidate had to honor the deal he made with the minor rightwing parties to become a candidate of the opposition bloc.

“These minor parties, which showed a poor performance during the election campaign process, concentrated their attention on the presidential elections to such an extent that they ignored the parliamentary elections,” he told Arab News.

Esen thinks that Sunday’s results was the worst-ever performance for the opposition in Turkiye and it made the main opposition party’s voters demoralized because their parliamentary share was lower than they had in 2011.

“Had Erdogan won by a slight majority, at least the election will be over,” said Esen.

“With the opposition being in a demoralized state to such an extent that they will not be able to probably campaign, they will end up in a very distorted result because the opposition voters will not necessarily be going to vote. Abroad vote rates may go down,” he said.

Esen added: “These elections could have been won by the opposition if they had followed different strategies and if they picked different candidates.”

Esen said his prediction for the second runoff was rather pessimistic.

“Erdogan will retain his margin because the opposition camp will not be able to energize and motivate its voters.”

Cagaptay, meanwhile, thinks that if Erdogan wins in the second runoff, he will completely consolidate power and this will be Turkiye’s last free and fair election while he remains on the scene.

“Although he has term limits constitutionally, he will probably rebrand his job and get for himself (an) indefinite number of terms,” he said.


UAE president, Qatar emir review regional developments in Abu Dhabi

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UAE president, Qatar emir review regional developments in Abu Dhabi

  • Leaders discussed efforts to address the latest developments in the Middle East

LONDON: The president of the UAE and the emir of Qatar discussed bilateral ties during a meeting at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani discussed regional and international issues of mutual interest, focusing particularly on the latest developments in the Middle East and sharing insights on efforts to address them.

The leaders explored ways to boost cooperation for the benefit and prosperity of both nations, the Emirates News Agency reported.

Several senior officials and ministers attended the meeting, including Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.


Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 16, including 3 children

Updated 5 min ago
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Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 16, including 3 children

GAZA: Gaza’s civil defense agency on Sunday said Israeli strikes on the Palestinian territory killed 16 people, including at least three children.
Six people were killed in overnight air strikes in Khan Yunis governorate, in the south of the Gaza Strip, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal said. They included two boys aged five and two, in an apartment in Al-Mawasi.
The civil defense later said 10 more people were killed in a strike on a tent also in Al-Mawasi, among them a child and seven women.
The Israeli military did not immediately respond for comment when contact by AFP. A spokesperson said they were gathering details.
A military statement issued in the morning said the army had “struck more than 100 terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip” during the past two days.
It said soldiers found “weapons caches” and killed “a number of terrorists” in the south.
Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce in its war against Hamas, which was triggered by the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza on Sunday said at least 2,436 people have been killed since Israel resumed its campaign in Gaza, bringing the war’s overall death toll to 52,535.
Israel halted aid deliveries to Gaza, saying Hamas had diverted supplies. Israel says the blockade is meant to pressure the militants into releasing hostages held in the Palestinian territory.
UN agencies have urged Israel to lift restrictions, saying Gazans have been experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe and warning of famine.

Lebanon holds local polls in first vote since Israel-Hezbollah war

Updated 55 min 24 sec ago
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Lebanon holds local polls in first vote since Israel-Hezbollah war

BEIRUT: Lebanon on Sunday began the first stage of long-delayed municipal elections, the first vote since a devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah and after a new national government was formed.
Polls opened at 7:00 am (0400 GMT) for voters in the Mount Lebanon district, a heavily populated area with mixed political and religious affiliations that includes Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold that was heavily damaged by Israeli strikes.
“We have come to exercise our right and have our voices heard,” said Hashem Shamas, 39, a Hezbollah supporter, after voting in south Beirut’s Shiyah neighborhood.
According to the interior ministry, 9,321 candidates including 1,179 women are running in the Mount Lebanon district.
Lebanon is supposed to hold municipal elections every six years, but cash-strapped authorities last held a local ballot in 2016.
President Joseph Aoun emphasized the vote’s importance to “give confidence to the people and internationally that Lebanon is rebuilding its institutions and is back on the right track.”
Aoun was elected in January and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam formed a government the following month, ending a more than two-year vacuum as Lebanon’s balance of power shifted following the Israel-Hezbollah war.
The new authorities have promised reforms in order to gain the trust of the international community, as well as unlock billions in bail-out funds amid a five-year economic crisis. They have also vowed a state monopoly on bearing arms.
Hezbollah was left badly weakened in more than a year of hostilities with Israel, with a slew of commanders including the group’s longtime chief, Hassan Nasrallah, killed and its strongholds pummelled in the south and east and in south Beirut.
Israel has continued to strike targets in Lebanon despite a ceasefire and still has troops in five areas it considers “strategic.”
In April 2024, the municipal polls were postponed amid the hostilities, which escalated in September into a major Israeli bombing campaign and ground incursion before the ceasefire about two months later.
Aoun urged voters not to let sectarian, “partisan or financial factors” impact their vote.
Religious and political affiliations are usually key electoral considerations in multi-confessional Lebanon, where power is shared along sectarian lines.
Municipal ballots however provide a greater margin for local community dynamics to play a role.
Polls are set to close at 7:00 p.m. on Sunday.
Areas of northern Lebanon will vote on May 11, with Beirut and the country’s eastern Bekaa Valley area set to go to the polls on May 18, while voters in the heavily damaged south will cast ballots on May 24.


Lebanese army says Hamas handed over suspect in missile launches toward Israel

Updated 04 May 2025
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Lebanese army says Hamas handed over suspect in missile launches toward Israel

CAIRO: The Lebanese army said on Sunday that Hamas handed over a suspect involved in launching missiles towards Israel in March, days after Lebanon warned the Palestinian group not to conduct operations that compromise Lebanese security or sovereignty.


UAE to lift Lebanon travel ban on May 7

Updated 04 May 2025
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UAE to lift Lebanon travel ban on May 7

  • UAE will lift a ban for its citizens traveling to Lebanon as of May 7, 2025

DUBAI: The UAE Foreign Ministry announced Sunday that it will lift a ban on its citizens traveling to Lebanon as of May 7, 2025, following a visit by the Lebanese head of state last week, according to WAM News Agency. 

The decision comes after a joint statement issued on Thursday, announcing that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed agreed to implement measures to facilitate travel and improve movement between the two countries.

The UAE banned its citizens from traveling to Lebanon in 2021. Lebanese citizens were not banned from traveling to the UAE.