Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’

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Updated 05 October 2024
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Why Lebanon is seen as trapped ‘between mafia and militia’

  • Two experts claim strategic missteps being made by the US as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify
  • Academic Hamoud Salhi and expert Jean AbiNader made the comments while appearing on Ray Hanania Radio Show

CHICAGO/LONDON: Lebanese experts have painted a bleak picture of the country’s imminent future, describing the nation as trapped “between mafia and militia” and criticizing the failure of the US to intervene effectively in the region. 

Speaking on the Ray Hanania Radio Show, Hamoud Salhi, a political science professor at California State University-Dominguez Hills, and Jean AbiNader, vice president for policy at the American Task Force on Lebanon, highlighted the strategic missteps being taken by the US, especially as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify. 

The US “is strategically being affected. Number one, can you afford continuing to sponsor this war?” Salhi said, adding that further escalation could draw Hezbollah and Iran’s regional allies, such as Yemen and Iraq, into a broader conflict.

He explained that up to this point the US had attempted to leverage its influence in the region through Israel to counterbalance growing powers such as Russia and China. 




In this photo taken at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 25, 2024, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu seems amused by whatever US President Joe Biden is telling him. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected US efforts to restrain Israel in its indiscriminate brutal war affecting civilians in Gaza and now in Lebanon. (AFP/File photo)

However, after nearly a year of conflict, Salhi questioned the sustainability of the current US approach, saying: “The US cannot sustain that. And more than anything else, Israel cannot sustain this war.” 

He warned that continued regional instability could lead to mass protests, putting “huge pressure” on the US and its Arab allies. 

“The US could potentially lose its allies in the region, the leaders they are working with,” Salhi said, adding that any potential normalization efforts must include a solution to the Palestinian’s cause. 

FASTFACTS

• A Hezbollah statement on Saturday said Hassan Nasrallah ‘has joined his fellow martyrs.’

• Israeli military said Ali Karki, commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and several other commanders, were also killed in the attack.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said ‘the resistance movement, heading by Hezbollah, will decide the fate of the region.’

He anticipated that any significant changes in Washington’s position would likely occur only after the US presidential election on Nov. 5. At that point President Joe Biden, no longer constrained by election concerns and with just over two more months left in office before the inauguration of his successor on Jan. 20 2025, “could get away with adopting decisions that could favor the region.” 

Judging by events on Thursday, when Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in New York to address the UN General Assembly, US influence over Israel is weakening.

The day before Netanyahu’s arrival, in a joint statement, the US and 11 allies, including France, the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, had called for “an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy toward the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement.” 




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows maps as he speaks during the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York City on September 27, 2024. (AFP)

The White House and French officials indicated the ceasefire plan had been coordinated directly with Netanyahu. But faced with pressure from the rightwing members of his government, Netanyahu’s first act on touching down in the US was to disown the proposal, with a spokesperson claiming that he had not even responded to it. 

Instead, the prime minister’s office said, he had “instructed the IDF to continue fighting at full force, according to the plans that were presented to him.” 

In recent months, the US, alongside Qatar and Egypt, has been a primary broker in ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had indicated that similar efforts could also halt the hostilities between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv. 

However, in the past week, both Hezbollah and Israel have escalated their attacks, and on Saturday Israeli aircraft carried out a massive airstrike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb, killing Nasrallah along with several other Hezbollah figures and possibly some Islamic Revolutionary Guards commanders.

A statement from Hezbollah on Saturday said Nasrallah “has joined his fellow martyrs” but that the group would “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine.”

This escalation followed the detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives in two waves of attacks suspected to have been carried out by Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, which killed dozens of people and injured thousands more across Lebanon. Most of the dead are believed to have been fighters, based on death notices posted online by Hezbollah.

Subsequent Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs have killed nearly 700 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. 

“The issue of Lebanon is part of the bigger picture, part of the grand design that Israel has,” said Salhi. “We could talk about the Golan (Heights), we could talk about what’s happening today even in Yemen. Those are really complex issues. 

“But it is also, as we’ve seen so far, connected to the big, big problem of the existence of an entity like Israel, who sees its security through strength, military buildup and occupation within the context of their bigger picture, which is to occupy other countries for the purpose of achieving the right agenda.” 

Israel and Lebanon have a long history of conflict, with tensions peaking during the Lebanese Civil War. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 in response to attacks from Palestinian militants, occupying southern Lebanon until 2000 while fighting a guerrilla war against Hezbollah. 

After Israel’s withdrawal, Hezbollah attacks led to the 2006 Lebanon War, which formally ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The resolution, calling for a cessation of hostilities, Israeli withdrawal, and the deployment of UNIFIL forces, remains only partially implemented, further entangling Lebanon in a web of unresolved conflict. 




Hezbollah became stronger and bolder after the 2006 war with Israel. When the militia marked the anniversary of the war on August 16, 2019, in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil, Hezbollah displayed a video showing a sample of its naval missiles that it used to target an Israeli warship off the Lebanese coast during the 2006 war. (AFP)

“(This situation) gets to the heart of what we’ve been saying about Lebanon for 40 years,” said AbiNader.

“In other words, most people have in their mind the image of a country torn between Christians and Muslims, which is absolutely inaccurate. And now the narrative is the country is torn between Christians and Hezbollah, or between Israel and Hezbollah. The overriding images are incorrect to begin with. 

“But we are fighting for the soul of Lebanon,” he said, adding that the question at this point was whether Lebanon was going to become “an outpost for the Iranian paramilitary called Hezbollah, or is it going to return to its weak roots as a quasi-democratic country?” 

The current situation, he said, highlighted the fragile balance underpinning Lebanon’s entire political system. 




Hezbollah fighters carry the body of their top military commander Ibrahim Aqil during his funeral in Beirut's southern suburbs on September 22, 2024. Aqil and other commanders of Hezbollah's "Radwan Force" were killed in an Israeli air strike on September 20. (AFP)

“The expression a lot of Lebanese use is, they’re caught between the mafia and the militia. Mafia, the old political leadership, and the militia, which has its own raison d’etre. 

“And so Lebanon has really put itself into a trap that underscores the question of whether or not Lebanon can survive.”

AbiNader said that Hezbollah had been able to fill the vacuum created by Lebanon’s antiquated and dysfunctional political system, itself a major obstacle to progress. 

“Until you have a (proper) state, you have Hezbollah, which has a stronger military, bank system, supermarkets, all this kind of stuff that supports people and has been done the way the government should, but didn’t,” he said. 

The Lebanese people are suffering now because “the overriding (Israeli) narrative is that Hezbollah is bad, therefore, by extension, the Lebanese are bad and so we can do whatever we want to protect our northern border.” 




Israelis take refuge in a shelter after sirens were heard in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border as border tensions with Hezbollah. (AFP/File)

Israel’s current attacks on Lebanon are motivated by a determination to allow an estimated 70,000 Israelis, displaced from the north by Hezbollah rocket and missile attacks since Oct. 7, to return to their homes close to the Lebanese border. 

But the bid to drive Hezbollah back from the border region, said AbiNader, “has resulted in increased retaliation toward the Lebanese people, and very little toward Hezbollah.

“Look at the threats that Israel is making. They’re always saying: ‘OK, Lebanese civilians get out of these areas, because it’s where Hezbollah has its rocket launchers. We’re going to go in and clean up the rocket launchers.’

“Well, we just accept what’s said about Hezbollah without really knowing on the ground what’s there and not there. It’s no question (Hezbollah) are a malign force, but they also represent Lebanese people.

“So, the question is, how do we get the needs of the Lebanese people, that Hezbollah represents, met without further antagonism?”




Displaced families who fled Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon are pictured at a park where they are taking refuge in Tripoli, on September 27, 2024. (AFP)

AbiNader called for the international community to intervene and establish clear boundaries to “stop what’s happening in Lebanon,” adding that competing US interests in the region have long complicated Lebanon’s integration and progress. 

“But it’s not going to happen,” he said.

“Hezbollah and Israel certainly are not going to change. They both think they’re protecting their own people, their own interests, therefore they’re morally right. So, when you have two moral rights arguing against each other, you’re not going to have an easy resolution.” 

He added: “So until there’s some dialog about these dueling narratives — without trying to find who’s right, just to find out where’s the middle ground —  we’re going to continue to have this conflict.”
 

 


Flights again halted to Israel after Houthi missile lands near airport

Updated 3 sec ago
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Flights again halted to Israel after Houthi missile lands near airport

JERUSALEM: European and US carriers canceled flights for the next several days after a missile fired by the Houthis on Sunday landed near Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, the country’s main international travel gateway.
Many foreign airlines subsequently suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv after the missile hit, sending a plume of smoke into the air and causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.
Following a ceasefire deal with Palestinian militant group Hamas in January, foreign carriers had begun to resume flights to Israel after halting them for much of the last year and a half since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack.
That left flag carrier El Al Airlines — along with smaller rivals Arkia and Israir — with a near monopoly. El Al’s shares rose 7 percent, while Israir gained 4.1 percent in a flat broader Tel Aviv market on Sunday.
Delta Air Lines said it canceled Sunday’s flight from JFK in New York to Tel Aviv and the return flight from Tel Aviv on Monday. United canceled its twice daily flights between Tel Aviv and Newark while it monitors the situation.
Earlier, flights from Tel Aviv on Delta and United on Sunday morning departed about 90 minutes late.
Lufthansa Group, which includes Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels and Austrian, said it had halted flights to and from Tel Aviv through Tuesday due to the current situation.
ITA said it had canceled flights from Italy to Israel through Wednesday, while Air France canceled flights on Sunday, saying customers were transferred to flights on Monday. TUS flights to and from Cyprus were canceled through Monday, while Air India flights from New Delhi were halted on Sunday.
Ryanair suspended flights on Sunday but flights are still scheduled for Monday, according to the Israel Airports Authority. Wizz also halted flights.
“I’m afraid it’s going to be very difficult to go back to France because all European carriers, from what I see on the information (board), have canceled. Lufthansa have canceled, Swiss have canceled, Brussels (Airlines), so no connection is possible,” said Michael Sceemes, 56, whose Air France flight was canceled.
Aegean, flydubai and Ethiopian did not cancel flights.
El Al said it would reintroduce rescue flights to Israel from Larnaca and Athens for passengers stranded by foreign carriers at a cost of $99 and $149, respectively.
Udi Bar Oz, head of Ben Gurion Airport, said the airport was up and running less than 30 minutes after the missile hit a road nearby.
Claiming responsibility for the strike, the Houthis’ military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said Israel’s main airport was “no longer safe for air travel.”
The Houthis, who control swathes of Yemen, began targeting Israel and Red Sea shipping in late 2023, during the early days of the war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip.
US President Donald Trump in March ordered large-scale strikes against the Houthis to deter them from targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond to the Houthis. “We attacked in the past, we will attack in the future ... There will be more blows,” he said.

Two held in Iran after deadly port explosion: state TV

This image shows a crater after an explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port dock southwest of Bandar Abbas.
Updated 48 min 48 sec ago
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Two held in Iran after deadly port explosion: state TV

  • April 26 blast at a dock in the southern port of Shahid Rajaee killed at least 57 people and injured more than 1,000, officials said, revising down an earlier death toll

TEHRAN: Iranian authorities arrested two people including a government official in connection with a deadly explosion last month at the country’s main commercial port, state television reported on Sunday.
The April 26 blast at a dock in the southern port of Shahid Rajaee killed at least 57 people and injured more than 1,000, officials said, revising down an earlier death toll.
The judiciary on Sunday said the toll had been revised because “it was determined that some of the bodies considered separate were in fact one body,” adding that it could still change.
At the time of the blast, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni blamed “shortcomings, including noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence.”
Shahid Rajaee is near Iran’s coastal city of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes.
“A government manager and another from the private sector have been arrested,” state television said on Sunday, citing a report from the investigating committee.
The committee announced on Monday that “false declarations (of goods) were made in some cases.”
It said on Sunday that “suspects have been identified and the summoning process is underway,” without elaborating.
The New York Times has quoted a person with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters, as saying that what exploded was sodium perchlorate — a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles.
Iran’s defense ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik later told state television that “there has been no imported or exported cargo for military fuel or military use in the area.”


Palestinian detainee Najem dies in Israeli custody after medical negligence

Updated 04 May 2025
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Palestinian detainee Najem dies in Israeli custody after medical negligence

  • Mohyee al-Din Fahmi Najem is the 66th Palestinian prisoner since October 2023 to die in an Israeli prison
  • During a prison visit in March, Najem was unable to walk without assistance

LONDON: A Palestinian prisoner died on Sunday at Israel’s Soroka Medical Center after spending more than a year and a half in indefinite administrative detention, the Wafa news agency reported.

Mohyee al-Din Fahmi Najem, 60, was detained on Aug. 8, 2023 under administrative detention, a practice that allows Israeli authorities to hold individuals in prison without trial for six months, subject to indefinite renewals.

The Palestinian Commission of Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs, and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society, said Najem died after suffering from medical neglect in Israeli prisons.

The Palestinian Authority’s affiliated groups said that Najem “suffered from chronic illnesses and was denied proper medical care during his incarceration.”

Najem was a father of six from Jenin town, in the northern occupied West Bank, who has spent 19 years in Israeli prisons because of his political activism. During a March prison visit, he was unable to walk without assistance, according to the commission and the Prisoners’ Society. They accused Israeli authorities of “compound crimes” during Najem’s prolonged detention, and medical negligence.

He was previously held in the notorious Negev Prison, known for its outbreaks of scabies last November and poor hygiene and medical infrastructure.

Najem is the 66th Palestinian prisoner to die in an Israeli prison since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023. Among those who died, 40 were from the Gaza Strip.

Since Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories in 1967, 303 Palestinian prisoners have died in Israeli custody, with 75 of those bodies still being withheld by Israel.


UAE president, Qatar emir review regional developments in Abu Dhabi

Updated 04 May 2025
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UAE president, Qatar emir review regional developments in Abu Dhabi

  • Leaders discussed efforts to address the latest developments in the Middle East

LONDON: The president of the UAE and the emir of Qatar discussed bilateral ties during a meeting at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi on Sunday.

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani discussed regional and international issues of mutual interest, focusing particularly on the latest developments in the Middle East and sharing insights on efforts to address them.

The leaders explored ways to boost cooperation for the benefit and prosperity of both nations, the Emirates News Agency reported.

Several senior officials and ministers attended the meeting, including Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani.


Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 16, including 3 children

Updated 04 May 2025
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Gaza rescuers say Israeli strikes kill 16, including 3 children

  • Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce in its war against Hamas

GAZA: Gaza’s civil defense agency on Sunday said Israeli strikes on the Palestinian territory killed 16 people, including at least three children.

Six people were killed in overnight air strikes in Khan Yunis governorate, in the south of the Gaza Strip, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal said. They included two boys aged five and two, in an apartment in Al-Mawasi.

The civil defense later said 10 more people were killed in a strike on a tent also in Al-Mawasi, among them a child and seven women.

The Israeli military did not immediately respond for comment when contact by AFP. A spokesperson said they were gathering details.

A military statement issued in the morning said the army had “struck more than 100 terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip” during the past two days.

It said soldiers found “weapons caches” and killed “a number of terrorists” in the south.

Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza on March 18 after a two-month truce in its war against Hamas, which was triggered by the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack.

The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza on Sunday said at least 2,436 people have been killed since Israel resumed its campaign in Gaza, bringing the war’s overall death toll to 52,535.

Israel halted aid deliveries to Gaza, saying Hamas had diverted supplies. Israel says the blockade is meant to pressure the militants into releasing hostages held in the Palestinian territory.

UN agencies have urged Israel to lift restrictions, saying Gazans have been experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe and warning of famine.