Egypt’s non-oil business activity weakens in April; Lebanon’s PMI ticks higher

KARACHI: While Pakistan’s automobile manufacturers are still parsing the government’s new financial plan, industry experts on Friday said proposed International Monetary Fund (IMF)-mandated reforms, such as the rationalization of trade tariffs, could erode long-standing protections for local industry.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the government plans to reduce the overall tariff regime by more than four percent over the next five years to steer the country toward an export-led growth model in line with the IMF program.

Under the National Tariff Policy 2025-30, the government aims to abolish additional customs duties (ACDs), regulatory duties (RDs) and provisions under the Fifth Schedule of the Customs Act, 1969. The goal is to simplify Pakistan’s tariff structure by reducing it to four duty slabs ranging from 0 to 15%.

The IMF-backed reforms are expected to lower Pakistan’s weighted average tariff by 3.2% points to 7.4%, said Shafiq Ahmed Shaikh, an automobile industry expert and former general manager of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd.

“These tariff cuts will reduce protection to the auto industry along with reduction of the cost of vehicles,” he said. “It is a very sensitive point for industry… [and] must be discussed with the stakeholders for good, long-term and acceptable solutions.”

PARA-TARIFFS

Abdul Waheed Khan, spokesperson for the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), said regulatory duties are designed to protect local industry and discourage unnecessary imports.

“The ACD too should gradually be abolished because such para-tariffs are not good,” he told Arab News.

Para-tariffs are taxes and duties levied in addition to standard customs tariffs, such as ACDs and RDs. While often introduced to curb imports or raise revenues, they are controversial because they can create complexity, raise costs and distort trade policy.

Pakistan’s federal budget also proposes raising the sales tax on 850cc small vehicles to 18% to bring parity between petrol or diesel-powered cars and hybrids.

“This would increase the cost of vehicles for middle income groups,” said Khan of PAMA, which represents the local operations of Honda, Suzuki, Toyota and 16 other manufacturers.

“This is not good for our Made-in-Pakistan policy as small vehicles will go costlier at a time when people’s disposable incomes are already not so good,” he continued, declining further comment on the budget.

CARBON LEVY

Pakistan’s automobile market, long dominated by Japanese firms like Honda, Toyota and Suzuki, has recently seen new entrants, particularly Chinese and Korean electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers like BYD, SAIC and Kia, operating through joint ventures.

“The existing industry will face good competition from EV and as we know, the future is of Electric Vehicles specially from China,” Shaikh, the automobile industry expert, told Arab News.

As one of the countries most affected by climate change, Pakistan also plans to introduce a carbon levy of up to Rs10 ($0.04) per liter on petrol, diesel and furnace oil over the next two years.

The move is intended “to discourage excessive use of fossil fuels and provide financial resources for climate change and green energy programs,” Finance Minister Aurangzeb said in his budget speech earlier this week.

Shaikh dismissed suggestions that the levy would raise car prices, arguing that consumers would instead begin shifting to EVs.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also announced plans to impose differential taxes on the sale and import of vehicles based on engine size to promote the adoption of two- and three-wheeled EVs and reduce oil imports and pollution.

Syed Asif Ahmed, general manager of marketing at MG Motors, said the “industry is seeking clarity on recent budget.”

He noted that while the finance bill was silent on hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), social media was abuzz with reports that the government may raise the sales tax from eight % to 18 % next year.

“If true, this will jeopardize the huge investment done by almost all automakers on HEV,” Ahmed said.

The MG Motors executive also warned against reduced regulatory duties on used cars and commercial imports under schemes meant for returning expatriates.

“[The] used cars importers are abusing the gift, baggage and transfer of residence scheme for commercial trading,” Ahmed said.

CAR SALES

While stakeholders have voiced concerns over policy shifts, vehicle sales continue to show signs of recovery.

Passenger car sales rose 31% in May to 11,119 units, while cumulative sales from July to May in the outgoing fiscal year increased 32% year-on-year to 94,388 units, according to PAMA data.

“[The] growth is supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment, lower interest rates, easing inflation and improving consumer sentiment,” said Myesha Sohail, an analyst at Topline Securities Ltd., in a recent research note.

Sohail expects this momentum to continue into the next fiscal year, driven by lower interest rates and a pipeline of new models across combustion, hybrid and plug-in hybrid categories.

RIYADH: Amid a record-breaking surge in venture funding and a wave of regulatory reforms, Saudi Arabia is drawing global attention for its ambitious push to build a vibrant startup economy. 

The Kingdom’s entrepreneurial landscape is being reshaped thanks to the work of Saudi Venture Capital, a subsidiary of the National Development Fund, and incubation support from the Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority, known as Monsha’at.

With government capital underwriting much of the early momentum, the challenge now lies in translating that support into private-sector-driven sustainability, with some market observers cautioning against confusing rapid growth with long-term sustainability. 

“The long-term sustainability of this support will depend on continued private-sector participation and market-driven investment flows,” Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT, told Arab News in an interview. 

He accepted that sovereign-led investment vehicles have played a foundational part in catalyzing early-stage innovation, saying: “Saudi initiatives like SVC and Monsha’at have played a critical role in expanding access to capital, fostering entrepreneurship, and developing the broader startup ecosystem.” 

Bahoshy cited SVC’s strategy of acting as a fund-of-funds as a key mechanism for increasing market liquidity, alongside new instruments such as venture debt and private equity.

These tools are designed not only to finance startups but to build institutional depth across the capital stack. 

Beyond financial capital, the initiatives have emphasized ecosystem development through mentorship and education. 

“Another key pillar is their focus on education — whether they be in-person events or the content they share through sponsorships like MAGNiTT — to educate the market,” Bahoshy added.

Monsha’at, he added, has expanded its support through physical incubators and SME-focused regulatory facilitation, helping reduce barriers for company formation and early operations. 

Capital drives diversification

For Said Murad, senior partner at Global Ventures, these efforts are not just supportive — they are catalytic. 

“SVC has invested in 54 private capital funds that invested in over 800 startups and SMEs via $3 billion in AUM (assets under management). This has resulted in entrepreneurship growth and economic diversification,” the venture capitalist told Arab News in an interview. 

Murad added that this flow of capital has had knock-on effects beyond startups, helping to “drive jobs and economic growth” across sectors and enabling venture firms like his to back “emerging technologies across platforms built by exceptional founders.” 

In assessing sustainability, the venture community is looking for more than just headline investment totals. 

Bahoshy pointed to a broadening of sector focus as a positive indicator. “Indicators of sustainable growth include diversified sector investment, rising follow-on funding rounds, and an increasing number of successful exits,” he said. 

MAGNiTT’s recent report with the National Technology Development Program, he noted, shows Saudi Arabia outperforming the wider Middle East and North Africa region on follow-on investment metrics — evidence of startups moving successfully through the funding pipeline. 

Murad emphasized deal activity and capital market maturation. “Achieving a record number of deals in 2024 (178), which was 31 percent of MENA’s total deal number, reflects positively on activity,” he said. 

He also cited the growing pipeline of exits and public listings, saying: “More than 50 IPO applications are currently under review by the regulator and the exchange, showing further momentum in the Saudi market.” 

The increase in mergers and acquisitions transactions — up 17.4 percent year on year — suggests the market is entering a phase of consolidation and liquidity, which is critical for long-term investor confidence, he stated.  

Still, the pace and scale of state-backed capital injections have prompted some caution. 

“Concerns about government-driven funding inflating valuations remain,” Bahoshy warned. 

He stressed the need to monitor startup profitability, organic market demand, and the inflow of non-government capital to guard against artificial inflation.

In his view, sustainable ecosystems are those where “startups demonstrate strong unit economics” and attract both domestic and international private capital. 

Murad agreed that macroeconomic indicators must be matched with real operational progress. 

“From an investor’s perspective, distinguishing between real market development and an overheated ecosystem requires a mix of macroeconomic signals and sector-specific insight,” he said. 

Those metrics include gross domestic product growth, employment contribution, and non-oil revenue gains. 

At a sectoral level, fintech remains a bellwether. “In fintech, for example, sustained growth in digital payment adoption, rising financial inclusion, and tangible collaboration between fintech and incumbent banks signal structural integration rather than hype,” Murad explained. 

On the structural side, Saudi startups face a different set of challenges as they scale regionally and globally. 

While local capital and infrastructure offer a strong base, market fragmentation across the MENA region presents real operational hurdles. 

“Key challenges include regulatory differences, talent mobility constraints, and fragmented market demand,” Bahoshy said. 

In particular, sectors such as fintech and health tech often require jurisdiction-specific compliance, which can stretch the resources of scaling companies. 

Murad underscored the importance of localization and talent strategy in overcoming those barriers. 

“Startups operating in sectors such as fintech or health tech may find it particularly difficult to navigate differing compliance standards and approval timelines,” he said, adding that hiring local talent is often critical. 

“Our portfolio company Rabbit, a hyperlocal e-commerce platform, has made the recruitment of local employees a key part of its Saudi market entry strategy,” said Murad. 

Despite these headwinds, both Bahoshy and Murad see a strategic shift toward long-term market integration. 

“Saudi startups are increasingly positioning themselves as regional leaders within MENA,” Bahoshy said, with many expanding into the UAE, Egypt, and other Gulf Cooperation Council markets. 

Murad added that founders are building their businesses “with scalability in mind,” and are “leveraging the Kingdom’s strong capital base, infrastructure, and Vision 2030 momentum to compete across borders.” 

Next growth phase

Ultimately, the next phase for Saudi Arabia’s startup ecosystem will depend on how effectively it balances public ambition with private execution. 

While Vision 2030 provides a powerful narrative and institutional backing, sustained impact will be measured by market maturity, depth of innovation, and the ability of startups to solve real problems across borders and sectors. 

As Saudi Arabia’s startup ecosystem transitions from state-backed momentum to market maturity, investors and policymakers are shifting their focus from funding volume to long-term value creation. 

This next phase will test whether startups can scale beyond subsidized growth and become embedded drivers of innovation across sectors and borders. 

“What often matters most is on-the-ground visibility: how embedded startups are in daily life, how their products are solving real problems, and how much institutional trust they’ve earned,” said Murad. 

That visibility — whether in finance, healthcare, or logistics — is increasingly seen as a litmus test for lasting impact. 

Startups that succeed in the Kingdom are now expected to meet regulatory standards, address market needs, and contribute to non-oil GDP. 

Murad pointed to the fintech sector, where startups are not only attracting investment but also becoming integral to the financial system through collaboration with banks and the adoption of digital infrastructure. 

He noted that alignment with national priorities, like those in the Financial Sector Development Programme, helps reinforce sector-wide progress. 

Regional expansion remains an important strategic goal, but the road to cross-border growth is uneven. 

Bahoshy pointed out that as Saudi startups expand into nearby markets, they encounter challenges such as varying regulations, limited movement of skilled talent, and inconsistent consumer demand across the region.

To mitigate these challenges, firms are increasingly investing in local knowledge and partnerships rather than applying one-size-fits-all models.