Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does

Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin walk together at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. (AP/File)
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Updated 09 February 2025
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Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does

Trump says he wants to negotiate about Ukraine. It’s not clear if Putin really does
  • Trump boasts of his deal-making prowess, called Putin “smart” and threatened Russia with tariffs and oil price cuts unless it comes to the negotiating table
  • But with little incentive to come to the negotiating table, Putin will not easily surrender what he considers Russia’s ancestral lands in Ukraine

Nearly three years after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his troops are making steady progress on the battlefield. Kyiv is grappling with shortages of men and weapons. And the new US president could soon halt Ukraine’s massive supply of military aid.

Putin is closer than ever to achieving his objectives in the battle-weary country, with little incentive to come to the negotiating table, no matter how much US President Donald Trump might cajole or threaten him, according to Russian and Western experts interviewed by The Associated Press.

Both are signaling discussions on Ukraine -– by phone or in person -– using flattery and threats.

Putin said Trump was “clever and pragmatic,” and even parroted his false claims of having won the 2020 election. Trump’s opening gambit was to call Putin “smart” and to threaten Russia with tariffs and oil price cuts, which the Kremlin brushed off.

Trump boasted during the campaign he could end the war in 24 hours, which later became six months. He’s indicated the US is talking to Russia about Ukraine without Kyiv’s input, saying his administration already had “very serious” discussions.

He suggested he and Putin could soon take “significant” action toward ending the war, in which Russia is suffering heavy casualties daily while its economy endures stiff Western sanctions, inflation and a serious labor shortage.

But the economy has not collapsed, and because Putin has unleashed the harshest crackdown on dissent since Soviet times, he faces no domestic pressure to end the war.

“In the West, the idea came from somewhere that it’s important to Putin to reach an agreement and end things. This is not the case,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, who hosted a forum with Putin in November and heads Moscow’s Council for Foreign and Defense policies.

Talks on Ukraine without Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Putin wants to deal directly with Trump, cutting out Kyiv. That runs counter to the Biden administration’s position that echoed Zelensky’s call of “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”

“We cannot let someone decide something for us,” Zelensky told AP, saying Russia wants the “destruction of Ukrainian freedom and independence.”

He suggested any such peace deal would send the dangerous signal that adventurism pays to authoritarian leaders in China, North Korea and Iran.

Putin appears to expect Trump to undermine European resolve on Ukraine. Likening Europe’s leaders to Trump’s lapdogs, he said Sunday they will soon be “sitting obediently at their master’s feet and sweetly wagging their tails” as the US president quickly brings order with his ”character and persistence.”

Trump boasts of his deal-making prowess but Putin will not easily surrender what he considers Russia’s ancestral lands in Ukraine or squander a chance to punish the West and undermine its alliances and security by forcing Kyiv into a policy of neutrality.

Trump may want a legacy as a peacemaker, but “history won’t look kindly on him if he’s the man who gives this all away,” said Sir Kim Darroch, British ambassador to the US from 2016-19. Former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said a deal favoring Moscow would send a message of “American weakness.”

Echoes of Helsinki

Trump and Putin last met in Helsinki in 2018 when there was “mutual respect” between them, said former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, the summit host. But they are “not very similar,” he added, with Putin a “systematic” thinker while Trump acts like a businessman making “prompt” decisions.

That could cause a clash because Trump wants a quick resolution to the war while Putin seeks a slower one that strengthens his military position and weakens both Kyiv and the West’s political will.

Zelensky told AP that Putin “does not want to negotiate. He will sabotage it.” Indeed, Putin has already raised obstacles, including legal hurdles and claimed Zelensky has lost his legitimacy as president.

Putin hopes Trump will “get bored” or distracted with another issue, said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat in Geneva who quit his post after the invasion.

Russian experts point to Trump’s first term when they said Putin realized such meetings achieved little.

One was a public relations victory for Moscow in Helsinki where Trump sided with Putin instead of his own intelligence agencies on whether Russia meddled in the 2016 election. Another was in Singapore in 2019 with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un when he failed to reach a deal to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

Previous peace talks

The Kremlin last year said a draft peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine negotiated in Istanbul early in the conflict — but which Kyiv rejected — could be the basis for talks.

It demanded Ukraine’s neutrality, stipulated NATO deny it membership, put limits on Kyiv’s armed forces and delayed talks on the status of four Russian-occupied regions that Moscow later annexed illegally. Moscow also dismissed demands to withdraw its troops, pay compensation to Ukraine and face an international tribunal for its action.

Putin hasn’t indicated he will budge but said “if there is a desire to negotiate and find a compromise solution, let anyone conduct these negotiations.”

“Engagement is not the same as negotiation,” said Sir Laurie Bristow, British ambassador to Russia from 2016-20, describing Russia’s strategy as “what’s mine is mine. And what’s yours is up for negotiation.”

Bondarev also said Putin sees negotiations only as a vehicle “to deliver him whatever he wants,” adding it’s “astonishing” that Western leaders still don’t understand Kremlin tactics.

That means Putin is likely to welcome any meeting with Trump, since it promotes Russia as a global force and plays well domestically, but he will offer little in return.

What Trump can and can’t do

Trump said Zelensky should have made a deal with Putin to avoid war, adding he wouldn’t have allowed the conflict to start if he had been in office.

Trump has threatened Russia with more tariffs, sanctions and oil price cuts, but there is no economic “wonder weapon” that can end the war, said Richard Connolly, a Russian military and economic expert at London’s Royal United Services Institute.

And the Kremlin is brushing off the threats, likely because the West already has heavily sanctioned Russia.

Trump also can’t guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO, nor can he lift all Western sanctions, easily force Europe to resume importing Russian energy or get the International Criminal Court to rescind its war crimes arrest warrant for Putin.

Speaking to the Davos World Economic Forum, Trump said he wants the OPEC+ alliance and Saudi Arabia to cut oil prices to push Putin to end the war. The Kremlin said that won’t work because the war is about Russian security, not the price of oil. It also would harm US oil producers.

“In the tradeoff between Putin and domestic oil producers, I’m pretty sure which choice Trump will make,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

Trump could pressure Russia by propping up the US oil industry with subsidies and lift the 10 percent trade tariffs imposed on China in exchange for Beijing limiting economic ties with Moscow, which could leave it “truly isolated,” Connolly said.

Europe also could underscore its commitment to Kyiv – and curry favor with Trump – by buying US military equipment to give to Ukraine, said Lord Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser.

Lukyanov suggested that Trump’s allies often seem afraid of him and crumble under his threats.

The “big question,” he said, is what will happen when Putin won’t.


Jeju Air jet still had a working engine when it crashed, investigation update says

Jeju Air jet still had a working engine when it crashed, investigation update says
Updated 5 sec ago
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Jeju Air jet still had a working engine when it crashed, investigation update says

Jeju Air jet still had a working engine when it crashed, investigation update says
  • The Boeing 737-800 belly-landed at Muan airport without its landing gear down, overshot the runway and erupted into a fireball after slamming into an embankment
  • Under global aviation rules, civil air investigations aim to discover crash causes without assigning blame or liability
SEOUL: A Jeju Air plane that crashed in December during an emergency landing after a bird strike could have kept flying on the damaged engine that was still working after pilots shut down the other one, according to an update from South Korean investigators.
The Boeing 737-800 instead belly-landed at Muan airport without its landing gear down, overshot the runway and erupted into a fireball after slamming into an embankment, killing all but two of the 181 people on board.
Investigators have not yet produced a final report into the deadliest air disaster on South Korean soil, but information about the plane’s two engines has begun to emerge.
According to a July 19 update prepared by investigators and seen by Reuters but not publicly released following complaints from victims’ family members, the left engine sustained less damage than the right following a bird strike, but the left engine was shut down 19 seconds after the bird strike.
The right engine experienced a “surge” and emitted flames and black smoke, but investigators said it “was confirmed to be generating output sufficient for flight,” in the five-page update, which included post-crash photos of both engines.
No reason for the crew’s actions was given and the probe is expected to last months as investigators reconstruct the plane’s technical state and the picture understood by its pilots.
Experts say most air accidents are caused by multiple factors and caution against putting too much weight on incomplete evidence.
More questions
So far, public attention has focused on the possibility that the crew may have shut down the less-damaged engine, rekindling memories of a 1989 Boeing 737-400 crash in Kegworth, England, where pilots shut down a non-damaged engine by mistake.
The disaster led to multiple changes in regulations including improvements in crew communication and emergency procedures.
A source told Reuters on Monday that the South Korea-led probe had “clear evidence” that pilots had shut off the less-damaged left engine after the bird strike, citing the cockpit voice recorder, computer data and a switch found in the wreckage.
But the latest update on the crash also raises the possibility that even the more heavily damaged engine that was still running could have kept the plane aloft for longer.
It did not say what level of performance the operating engine still had, nor what extra options that might have given to the plane’s emergency-focused crew before the jet doubled back and landed in the opposite direction of the runway from its initial plan with its landing gear up.
Both engines contained bird strike damage and both experienced engine vibrations after the strike. The right engine showed significant internal damage, the Korean-language update from South Korea’s Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board (ARAIB) said, but it did not describe the damage found in the left engine.
The update did not say how the left engine was operating nor the state of systems connected to either engine, said former US National Transportation Safety Board investigator Greg Feith when shown the document translated by Reuters.
It contains some new facts but omits far more, resulting in a “cryptic” document, he said.
ARAIB, which plans to issue a final report next June, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Safety experts say it is common for early reports to contain sparse facts and limited analysis while investigations continue.
A preliminary report released in January said feathers and blood stains from ducks were found in both engines.
The engines – made by CFM International, jointly owned by GE and France’s Safran – were examined in May and no defects or fault data were found beyond the bird and crash damage, the report said.
Families of those who died in the disaster were briefed on the engine findings but asked investigators not to release the July 19 report, saying that it appeared to apportion blame to the pilots without exploring other factors.
The report was withheld but Reuters and South Korean media obtained copies. Boeing and GE referred questions about the crash to ARAIB. Safran did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Jeju Air has previously said it is cooperating with ARAIB and is awaiting publication of the investigation.
Under global aviation rules, civil air investigations aim to discover crash causes without assigning blame or liability.
The Jeju Air pilots’ union said ARAIB was “misleading the public” by suggesting there was no problem with the left engine given that bird remains were found in both.
A source who attended the briefing told Reuters that investigators told family members the left engine also experienced a disruptive “surge,” citing black box data.
The pilot union and representatives of bereaved families have asked that evidence be released to support any findings.
Relatives say the investigation also needs to focus on the embankment containing navigation equipment, which safety experts have said likely contributed to the high death toll.
Global aviation standards call for any navigation equipment in line with runways to be installed on structures that easily give way in case of impact with an aircraft.
South Korea’s transport ministry has identified seven domestic airports, including Muan, with structures made of concrete or steel, rather than materials that break apart on impact and has said it will improve them.
Designs for the new structures are in progress, a ministry official said last week.

Russia starts first Moscow-Pyongyang passenger flights in decades

Russia starts first Moscow-Pyongyang passenger flights in decades
Updated 8 min 40 sec ago
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Russia starts first Moscow-Pyongyang passenger flights in decades

Russia starts first Moscow-Pyongyang passenger flights in decades
  • The first flight will leave Sheremetyevo airport at 7 p.m. (1600 GMT), according to the airport’s timetable
  • The eight-hour flight will be operated by a Boeing 777-200ER with a capacity of 440 passengers

Russia will launch direct passenger flights from Moscow to North Korea’s capital Pyongyang on Sunday, Russian authorities said, as the two former communist bloc allies move to improve ties following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The start of regular flights between the capitals for the first time since the mid-1990s, according to Russian aviation blogs, follows the resumption of Moscow-Pyongyang passenger rail service, a 10-day journey, in June.

The first flight will leave Sheremetyevo airport at 7 p.m. (1600 GMT), according to the airport’s timetable.

The eight-hour flight will be operated by a Boeing 777-200ER with a capacity of 440 passengers, Russia’s RIA state news agency said on Sunday. It said tickets started at 44,700 roubles ($563), and the first flight quickly sold out.

Russia’s civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia has granted Nordwind Airlines permission to operate flights between Moscow and Pyongyang twice a week. The transport ministry said in a statement that for now flights would operate once a month, “to help build stable demand.”

The only direct air route between Russia and North Korea has been flights by North Korean carrier Air Koryo to Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East three times a week.

Ukraine and its Western allies have accused North Korea of supplying Russia with artillery and ballistic missiles. Moscow and Pyongyang deny the allegations.

Pyongyang has deployed more than 10,000 troops and arms to Russia to back Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said this month his country was ready to “unconditionally support” Moscow’s efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.


Trump immigration raids threaten US food security, farmers warn

Trump immigration raids threaten US food security, farmers warn
Updated 53 min 18 sec ago
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Trump immigration raids threaten US food security, farmers warn

Trump immigration raids threaten US food security, farmers warn
  • The number of government certified positions for temporary agricultural workers practically tripled between 2014 and 2024, underlining just how much American agriculture depends on foreign workers

VENTURA, California: Lisa Tate, whose family has been farming in Ventura County since 1876, cannot recall a threat to crops like the one emanating from Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant onslaught.

Tate fears that the crackdown on illegal workers, far from addressing the problems of this vital agricultural region north of Los Angeles, could “dismantle the whole economy” and put the country’s food security at risk.

“I began to get really concerned when we saw a group of border control agents come up to the Central Valley and just start going onto farms and just kind of trying to chase people down, evading the property owner,” the 46-year-old farmer, who grows avocados, citrus and coffee, told AFP in an interview.

“That’s not something we’re used to happening in agriculture,” she added.

The impact goes beyond harvesters, she said. “There’s a whole food chain involved,” from field workers to truck drivers to people working in packing houses and in sales.

“It’s just, everybody’s scared,” she said — even a multi-generational American like her.

“I’m nervous and I’m scared, because we’re feeling like we’re being attacked.”

Other farmers contacted by AFP declined to speak to the media, saying they feared potential reprisals from the Trump administration.

Perennial labor shortage

The agricultural sector has for years been trying to find permanent solutions for its perennial labor shortages, beyond issuing temporary permits for migrant workers.

“Some of the work we have is seasonal. But really, around here, we need workers that are year-round,” Tate says.

The number of government certified positions for temporary agricultural workers practically tripled between 2014 and 2024, Department of Labor statistics show, underlining just how much American agriculture depends on foreign workers.

On top of that, some 42 percent of farm workers are not authorized to work in the United States, according to a 2022 study by the Department of Agriculture.

Those numbers line up with the struggles many farmers go through to find labor.

They say US citizens are not interested in the physically demanding work, with its long days under extreme temperatures, rain and sun.

Against that backdrop, Tate warns that removing people who are actually doing the work will cause immeasurable damage.

Not only will it harm farms and ranches, which could take years to recover, it will also send food prices soaring, and even endanger US food security, possibly requiring the country to start importing provisions that may previously have been grown at home, she says.

“What we really need is some legislation that has the type of program that we need, and that works for both the workers, that ensures their safety, it ensures a fair playing field when it comes to international trade, as well as as domestic needs,” Tate said.

‘Between a rock and a hard place'

Some farmworkers agreed to speak to AFP on condition of not being fully identified, for fear of being arrested.

“All we do is work,” a worker named Silvia told AFP. She saw several friends arrested in a raid in in Oxnard, about 10 miles (16 kilometers) west of Ventura.

The 32-year-old Mexican lives in constant fear that she will be the next one picked up and, in the end, separated from her two US-born daughters.

“We’re between a rock and a hard place. If we don’t work, how will we pay our bills? And if we go out, we run the risk of running into them,” she said, referring to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

“The way the goverment is working right now, everybody loses,” said Miguel, who has been working in the fields of southern California for three decades.

The 54-year-old said that workers are losing jobs, farm owners are losing their labor, and as a result, the United States is losing its food.

Miguel has worked in various different agriculture sector jobs, including during the Covid-19 pandemic. All of them were “very hard jobs,” he said.

Now he feels like he has a target on his back.

“They should do a little research so they understand. The food they eat comes from the fields, right?” he said.

“So it would be good if they were more aware, and gave us an opportunity to contribute positively, and not send us into hiding.”


Taiwan voters reject bid to oust China-friendly lawmakers in closely watched poll

Taiwan voters reject bid to oust China-friendly lawmakers in closely watched poll
Updated 27 July 2025
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Taiwan voters reject bid to oust China-friendly lawmakers in closely watched poll

Taiwan voters reject bid to oust China-friendly lawmakers in closely watched poll
  • The independence-leaning ruling Democratic Progressive Party won last year’s presidential election
  • However, the China-friendly KMT and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party have enough seats to form a majority bloc

TAIPEI, Taiwan: Taiwanese voters rejected a bid to oust about one-fifth of their lawmakers, all from the opposition Nationalist Party, in a recall election Saturday, dampening hopes for the ruling party to flip the balance of power in the self-ruled island’s legislature.

The independence-leaning ruling Democratic Progressive Party won last year’s presidential election, but the China-friendly Nationalists, also known as the KMT, and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party have enough seats to form a majority bloc.

Official preliminary results showed that the recall efforts failed to remove any of the two dozen KMT lawmakers. The scale of the recall elections is unprecedented, with another seven KMT lawmakers facing a similar vote on Aug. 23.

The KMT currently holds 52 seats, while the ruling DPP holds 51 seats. For the DPP to secure a legislative majority, at least six KMT lawmakers would need to be ousted, and the ruling party would need to win the by-elections, which must be held within three months of the announcement of results.

For the recall to pass, more than a quarter of eligible voters in the electoral district must vote in favor of it, and the total number of supporters must exceed those voting against.

If next month’s poll results are also unfavorable to the DPP, it would mean that the government of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te could continue to face strong resistance from within the legislature before elections expected to take place in 2028.

‘An uphill battle’

Facing the setback, Lai said in a Facebook post that recall attempts and efforts to oppose them are both people’s legitimate rights under its constitutional system. He thanked the civic power, saying the efforts were not in vain. They further established the national direction of resisting communists and protecting Taiwan, he said.

“Today’s result is neither a victory for one side nor a defeat for another,” he said, adding that he hoped all parties would continue to safeguard Taiwan’s democratic system.

KMT chairman Eric Chu told reporters that voters had used their ballots to prove Taiwan’s democracy is mature and great, calling for an apology from Lai.

“All Taiwanese people chose stability, chose that the government should focus on getting things done, rather than engaging in bitter political fighting,” he said.

Despite their huge effort, those backing the recall were facing an “uphill battle” in trying to unseat lawmakers in well organized, strongly KMT districts, said Lev Nachman, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.

The result is going to make it even harder for Lai to push his agenda forward, especially ahead of local elections next year, said Nachman, who is an expert on Taiwan’s elections.

“At the moment, there is very little Lai can do other than try to think of other creative ways to appeal to the public,” he told The Associated Press.

Fu Kun-chi, one of the most powerful and controversial lawmakers targeted, said the result left Lai with no option other than to meet with the opposition and “find a way for Taiwan to proceed in a more stable way in this chaotic world.”

DPP Secretary-General Lin Yu-chang said they humbly accepted the results, saying the recall should not be reduced to a victory or defeat for political parties. He said his party has the responsibility to reflect on public sentiment more cautiously and adjust its approach to meet people’s expectations.

Political retaliation claim

Those who support removing the 24 lawmakers have criticized the KMT and its allies for blocking key legislation, especially the defense budget, and passing controversial changes that are seen as diminishing the power of the executive and favoring China, which considers the island its own territory.

The opposition parties’ actions sparked concerns among some Taiwanese about the island’s democratic integrity and its ability to deter Chinese military threats, leading to the recall campaigns.

But the KMT has accused the ruling party of resorting to political retaliation after it lost the legislative majority, saying the recalls were undermining and challenging Taiwan’s democratic system.

Tensions flared over the poll

The elections have intensified tensions between those backing the status quo and those favoring improved ties with Beijing.

Critics accuse China-friendly politicians of compromising Taiwan and take issue with their meetings with mainland Chinese politicians. But these Taiwanese politicians claim their connections are vital for dialogue given Beijing’s refusal to interact with the DPP.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said the election results showed that the DPP’s “political manipulation” runs against the will of the people, accusing the party of having the ambition to attain “one-party dominance,” Chinese state media Xinhua reported. Chen said the DPP’s acts showed it was “fake democracy, real authoritarianism.” The office is a branch of China’s ruling Communist Party government, which itself maintains strict one-party rule.

Taiwan’s mainland affairs council said Wednesday that the Chinese authorities and state media had tried to blatantly interfere with the vote.

 


Two-state solution ‘the only answer,’ Pakistan’s deputy prime minister says ahead of landmark conference in New York

Two-state solution ‘the only answer,’ Pakistan’s deputy prime minister says ahead of landmark conference in New York
Updated 27 July 2025
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Two-state solution ‘the only answer,’ Pakistan’s deputy prime minister says ahead of landmark conference in New York

Two-state solution ‘the only answer,’ Pakistan’s deputy prime minister says ahead of landmark conference in New York

NEW YORK: As the world watches in horror at the unfolding tragedy in Gaza, international efforts to revive the long-stalled two-state solution for Palestine and Israel are intensifying.

From July 28-30, a high-profile conference co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia will take place in New York City, aiming to chart a path toward peace and the realization of a sovereign Palestinian state. Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke to Arab News about Pakistan’s unwavering support for the initiative and the urgent need to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The upcoming conference seeks to reinvigorate the stalled peace process by focusing on concrete steps toward establishing two independent states, Israel and Palestine. 

Delegates from key nations and international bodies will converge in New York City at the UN headquarters to discuss ceasefire arrangements, humanitarian access, reconstruction efforts and political recognition of Palestine.

Dar highlighted Pakistan’s longstanding position on the Palestinian issue.

“You see, this issue has become already too late in handling,” he said. “The attempt by France and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is very appreciable. These two countries have taken this initiative. Pakistan has a clear foreign policy for decades, that the two-state solution is the only answer to the Palestine problem.”

Dar laid out Pakistan’s hopes for the summit: “I hope that serious efforts are made during this event; first, to secure an immediate ceasefire; and second, to ensure the unhindered flow of food, humanitarian aid and medical assistance — alongside progress toward the recognition of Palestine as an independent state.”

The event comes amid escalating violence and mounting international concern over Gaza, with many legal experts and humanitarian organizations increasingly describing the situation in the enclave as a a genocide.

The humanitarian situation there continues to worsen. Gaza has for almost two years now suffered relentless airstrikes and ground incursions, resulting in thousands of civilian casualties, widespread destruction of infrastructure and critical shortages of food, water and medical supplies, with international organizations now warning of a looming full-scale famine. 

Acknowledging the devastating conditions in Gaza, Dar described the conference’s potential success: “If we are able to achieve all these objectives, it will be a great success and a highly commendable contribution by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and France.”