Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism 

Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism 
Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $73.24 a barrel by 08:35 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.61, down 1 cent, from Thursday’s close. Shutterstock
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Updated 27 December 2024
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Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism 

Oil Updates — prices set for weekly gain on China stimulus optimism 

RIYADH: Oil prices were little changed on Friday but were set for a weekly rise amid optimism that economic stimulus efforts will prompt a recovery in China, but a stronger dollar capped gains, according to Reuters. 

Brent crude futures fell 2 cents to $73.24 a barrel by 08:35 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.61, down 1 cent, from Thursday’s close. However, on a weekly basis, Brent was up 0.4 percent and WTI rose 0.2 percent. 

The World Bank on Thursday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that subdued household and business confidence, along with headwinds in the property sector, would keep weighing it down next year. 

China, the world’s biggest oil importer, revised upwards its 2023 gross domestic product estimate by 2.7 percent, but also said the change would have little impact on growth this year. 

Chinese authorities have agreed to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported this week citing sources, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy. 

However, a stronger US dollar weighed on oil prices and capped gains. The greenback has risen about 7 percent this quarter and remained pinned at a near two-year peak against major peers after the Federal Reserve signaled slower rate cuts in 2025. 

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. 

The latest weekly report on US inventories from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks fell last week by 3.2 million barrels, market sources said on Tuesday. API/S 

Traders will be waiting to see if the official inventory report from the US Energy Information Administration confirms the decline. The EIA data is due at 9 p.m. Saudi time on Friday, later than normal because of the Christmas holiday. 

Analysts in a Reuters poll expect crude inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20, while gasoline and distillate inventories are seen falling by 1.1 million barrels and 0.3 million barrels respectively. 


Lebanon’s annual inflation slows to 14.2 percent in March, down from over 70 percent

Lebanon’s annual inflation slows to 14.2 percent in March, down from over 70 percent
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Lebanon’s annual inflation slows to 14.2 percent in March, down from over 70 percent

Lebanon’s annual inflation slows to 14.2 percent in March, down from over 70 percent

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s annual inflation rate eased to 14.2 percent in March, down from 70.36 percent a year earlier, according to the latest data from the country’s Central Administration of Statistics.

A key factor behind easing inflation is the stabilization of the exchange rate, with the Lebanese pound holding steady at around 89,500 Lebanese pounds per US dollar since mid-2023.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s March staff report on Lebanon, this stabilization has been supported by the halt of monetary financing and foreign exchange subsidies, as well as improvements in fiscal revenue collection.

Concurrently, monetary tightening by the central bank has played a critical role. The volume of Lebanese pounds in circulation dropped sharply from $20.51 billion in 2020 to $0.73 billion in 2024, significantly dampening inflationary pressures, as noted in a 2024 analysis by Blominvest.

Dollarization has also accelerated across key sectors such as healthcare, education, and telecommunications, where services are increasingly billed in US dollars.

This shift has helped anchor price stability in dollarized segments of the economy, further moderating consumer price volatility, according to a 2024 article by Bloomberg.

A strong base effect also contributed to the lower year-on-year inflation reading, as March 2024 had recorded exceptionally high price levels, making current figures appear relatively subdued.

Despite the recent moderation, Lebanon’s underlying economic conditions remain fragile. The expanding dollarization trend has also deepened inequality, disproportionately impacting households and workers who continue to be paid in the domestic currency.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.44 percent in March, a modest uptick by Lebanon’s recent standards. The increase was driven mainly by higher costs in food and beverages, housing and utilities, and clothing and footwear.

However, the magnitude of monthly price changes has notably cooled compared to previous years, when double-digit jumps were not uncommon.

Regionally, inflation trends varied across governorates. The north of Lebanon recorded the highest monthly inflation at 1.41 percent, driven primarily by food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, which rose 3.8 percent month-on-month.

The Nabatieh region followed with a monthly rise of 0.81 percent, while Mount Lebanon posted the lowest increase at 0.11 percent and Beirut at 0.33 percent.

This divergence highlights the continued impact of geographic and income disparities on exposure to inflation.

Lebanon’s consumer price index is calculated by CAS using a representative basket of goods and services based on 2013 consumption patterns. The CPI remains the country’s most widely cited benchmark for tracking the cost of living.


Pakistan central bank to launch ‘green taxonomy’ guidelines by June — finance minister

Pakistan central bank to launch ‘green taxonomy’ guidelines by June — finance minister
Updated 23 April 2025
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Pakistan central bank to launch ‘green taxonomy’ guidelines by June — finance minister

Pakistan central bank to launch ‘green taxonomy’ guidelines by June — finance minister
  • Guidelines will pave the way for launching instruments like green bonds, green sukuk, country’s first panda bond
  • Pakistan is making efforts to mobilize private sector capital for environmentally sustainable development

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan is finalizing a green taxonomy framework set for launch in June, the finance minister said this week, paving the way for innovative instruments such as green bonds, green sukuks, and the country’s inaugural panda bond.

In May 2021, Pakistan issued its first $500 million green bond to fund a hydroelectric project. Last month, the country launched its first-ever rupee-denominated green bond as part of efforts to mobilize private sector capital for environmentally sustainable development.

Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions 2021 (NDCs) set a cumulative and ambitious conditional target of an overall 50 percent reduction in its projected emissions by 2030, with 15 percent from the country’s own resources, and 35 percent subject to provision of international finance amounting to $101 billion just for energy transition. To reach the target, Pakistan aims to shift to 60 percent renewable energy (RE), and 30 percent EVs by 2030 and completely ban imported coal, while expanding nature-based solutions. A green finance scheme in the country can significantly support the achievement of these targets.

“Now the State Bank is in the process of finalizing the green taxonomy guidelines,” Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said during a talk at The Atlantic Council. “In the June timeframe, they will come out with the green taxonomy framework.”

Recalling Pakistan’s first green bond by the Water and Power Development Authority in 2021, he said a second step under the green taxonomy framework would be launch green sukuk, a Shariah-compliant Islamic bond where the proceeds are used to finance or refinance green projects that contribute to environmental sustainability, such as renewable energy, infrastructure development, and biodiversity preservation.

“The second is some of the green sukuks that we have issued locally now through the ministry of finance and the State Bank,” he said. “

“And the last thing I just want to mention here is we are quite hopeful that during this calendar year, we can print the first, inaugural panda bond that is going to also be green in nature, because the proceeds of those bonds are going to be linked with the SDG [UN’s Sustainable Development Goals] projects. So a lot is happening in that space.”

A panda bond is a Chinese Yuan (RMB)-denominated bond issued by a non-Chinese entity within China’s domestic bond market. This type of bond allows foreign entities, including governments and corporations, to access Chinese capital markets and tap into the liquidity of the Chinese financial system. Essentially, it is a way for non-Chinese issuers to raise funds in China without having to go through the standard international bond issuance process. 

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing significant impacts like rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased extreme weather events. These changes threaten water, food, and energy security, impacting agriculture, coastal areas, and ecosystems, according to a report from the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination. The country is also grappling with sea-level rise, glacial melting, and increased droughts.


IMF must be more active on debt restructurings, Georgieva says

IMF must be more active on debt restructurings, Georgieva says
Updated 23 April 2025
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IMF must be more active on debt restructurings, Georgieva says

IMF must be more active on debt restructurings, Georgieva says
  • African countries want IMF to provide technical assistance
  • Debt roundtable to release new playbook for debt restructurings
  • African leaders, IMF met

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund must be more active in debt restructuring processes, the global lender’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said on Tuesday, noting the growing challenges facing vulnerable low- and middle-income countries.

Georgieva told an event hosted by the Bretton Woods Committee booster group that African countries and others, in a 1-1/2-hour meeting, said they wanted the IMF to provide more technical assistance to countries grappling with high debt levels.

She said the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, which includes creditor and borrowing countries as well as the IMF and the World Bank, had separately approved a new playbook to help countries navigate the complex process of restructuring heavy debt burdens.

The roundtable will release the document after a closed-door meeting in Washington on Wednesday during the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

A joint statement released by Georgieva and Hervé Ndoba, chair of the African Caucus and Central African Republic’s minister of finance and budget, said Africa faces the risk of further shocks that could undo strong policy actions taken to bring down inflation, stabilize public debt and reduce external imbalances.

“While growth in Africa is showing some resilience in the face of multiple shocks, the sudden shift in the global outlook has interrupted the growth momentum,” the two leaders said, noting that growth on the African continent had been revised down by 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent for 2025.

African leaders and the IMF agreed on the need to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability while working to meet the continent’s economic development goals. They said domestic reform efforts should promote fiscal sustainability by boosting revenue and improving spending efficiency.

“Now, more than ever, the Fund is committed to working with its member countries to help navigate the complex global economic environment,” the joint statement said, noting that addition of a 25th chair on the Executive Board for sub-Saharan Africa strengthened the region’s voice in the fund.

The statement also pledged that the IMF would “remain agile” in responding to emerging challenges, and providing support to initiatives like the G20 Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable.

It welcomed IMF steps to review both its debt sustainability framework for low-income countries and the design and conditionality of lending programs with an eye to addressing macroeconomic imbalances and promoting growth.

The African Consultative Group includes governors from 12 African countries belonging to the African Caucus and IMF management.


Oil Updates — crude up more than 1% on fresh Iran sanctions, lower US crude stocks

Oil Updates — crude up more than 1% on fresh Iran sanctions, lower US crude stocks
Updated 23 April 2025
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Oil Updates — crude up more than 1% on fresh Iran sanctions, lower US crude stocks

Oil Updates — crude up more than 1% on fresh Iran sanctions, lower US crude stocks

SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed more than 1 percent on Wednesday, extending the prior day’s gains, as investors weighed a fresh round of US sanctions on Iran, a drop in US crude stocks and a softer tone from President Donald Trump toward the Federal Reserve.

Brent crude futures climbed $1, or 1.5 percent, to $68.44 a barrel at 9:40 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 99 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $64.66 a barrel.

The US issued new sanctions targeting Iranian liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil shipping magnate Seyed Asadoollah Emamjomeh and his corporate network on Tuesday.

Emamjomeh’s network is responsible for shipping hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil to foreign markets, the US Treasury said in a statement.

“The US issued fresh sanctions targeting Iranian energy supplies, which worried markets,” said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova.

Both benchmark prices this morning were also backed by hopes of a positive outcome between the US and China over import tariffs, Sachdeva said.

Trump on Tuesday backed away from the threat of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell after days of criticism for the Fed not cutting interest rates. Trump also signalled the possibility of lower tariffs on Chinese imports.

Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell by around 4.6 million barrels last week, market sources said on Tuesday citing American Petroleum Institute data.

US government data on oil stockpiles is due at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time on Wednesday. Analysts on average estimated an 800,000 barrel decline in US crude oil stocks last week, a Reuters poll showed.

Trump told reporters on Tuesday he would be “nice” in negotiations with China and that tariffs would fall significantly following a deal, but not to zero.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believed there would be a de-escalation in US-China trade tension but that negotiations had not yet started and would be a “slog,” a person who heard his closed-door presentation to investors at a JP Morgan conference told Reuters.

Trade tariffs have weighed on crude futures on investor concern about their potential to slow global economic growth.


Pakistan’s finance chief seeks deeper US trade ties, welcomes reform efforts by global lenders

Pakistan’s finance chief seeks deeper US trade ties, welcomes reform efforts by global lenders
Updated 23 April 2025
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Pakistan’s finance chief seeks deeper US trade ties, welcomes reform efforts by global lenders

Pakistan’s finance chief seeks deeper US trade ties, welcomes reform efforts by global lenders
  • Muhammad Aurangzeb downplays US tariff concerns, says Pakistan sees greater opportunity in rebalancing trade
  • IMF chief says the international lender is trying to determine how to design loan programs for countries like Pakistan

KARACHI: Pakistan’s finance minister said on Tuesday the country wants to broaden trade and investment ties with the United States, especially in minerals critical to the energy transition, while also joining other vulnerable economies in urging reforms at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb is currently in Washington to attend the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, where policymakers are grappling with debt distress, climate vulnerabilities and growing calls from the Global South to reshape how multilateral institutions lend and design reforms.
The IMF has acknowledged the need to tailor programs more toward pro-growth reforms and private-sector led development, particularly for repeat borrowers like Pakistan.
“We genuinely believe that there’s a win-win situation,” Aurangzeb said at the Atlantic Council, pointing to high-level US interest in Pakistan’s copper and rare earth potential. “Reko Diq is only the first one... the value addition and downstream stuff is going to be really game-changing for Pakistan.”
Aurangzeb downplayed concerns over US tariffs, saying the country saw greater opportunity in rebalancing trade and attracting strategic investment.
He reiterated a high-level delegation from Islamabad would visit Washington in the coming weeks to explore broader cooperation beyond tariffs, citing minerals, agriculture and green technology as key areas.
On multilateral reform, Aurangzeb welcomed the willingness of IMF and World Bank leaders to reassess their lending frameworks, especially in light of liquidity strains across the Global South.
“These institutions also need to have ownership and accountability at their end to really drive impact,” he said, calling for a system that allows countries like Pakistan to access flexible financing and avoid perpetual debt cycles.
He praised recent efforts to unify public and private sector arms within the World Bank and to coordinate better with other lenders like the ADB and AIIB.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday the international lending agency was not just telling countries to get their own houses in order, but was also looking at the way it does business, including conducting a review of how it designs loan programs, and determines their length and conditions.
She said the IMF was also looking at countries that have had repeated programs, such as Pakistan, Argentina and Egypt, to ensure loan programs were designed the right way.
Pakistan has been in over 20 IMF programs, including a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility finalized last year to stabilize its economy.
Aurangzeb said the government was pursuing structural reform, with a focus on climate, population, and fiscal sustainability, including efforts to broaden the tax base and digitize enforcement.
– With input from Reuters