Euro weakens as Biden carries new sanction plans to Europe — Macro Snapshot

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Updated 23 March 2022
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Euro weakens as Biden carries new sanction plans to Europe — Macro Snapshot

RIYADH: The euro weakened against the dollar on Wednesday amid another sharp increase in oil and natural gas prices and while investors waited for US President Joe Biden to unveil new sanctions against Russia during his trip to Europe.

Biden, who is heading to Brussels for talks with NATO and European leaders, will push Europe to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and gas, and could announce new sanctions on members of the Russian parliament over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The EU currently seems unlikely to agree to a ban on Russian oil which would also weigh on the euro.

“An embargo on Russian oil would increase the likelihood of Russia turning off the gas tap to Europe in return,” Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX research at Commerzbank, wrote, saying such a scenario could throw Europe into recession.

Sanctions to ‘hammer global markets’

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday global energy markets would collapse if sanctions were imposed on oil and gas from Russia, a major exporter of hydrocarbons.

The EU, which relies heavily on Russian energy, has been considering expanding sanctions on Moscow imposed over the Ukraine crisis to include hydrocarbons. EU foreign ministers disagreed on Monday about whether to proceed.

The US and Britain, both far less reliant on Russian fuel, have taken steps to ban Russian oil imports.

“Russia is the largest supplier, the share of Russian energy resources on global markets stands at around 40 percent. Obviously, oil and gas markets would collapse without Russian hydrocarbons in the event that sanctions were imposed,” Novak said.

He told Russia’s lower house of parliament that there was a shortage of crude in global markets of about 1 million barrels per day.

UK inflation jumps again

British inflation rose to a new 30-year high of 6.2 percent last month, at the very top end of expectations among analysts, official data showed on Wednesday.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 5.9 percent

Stocks hit near three-week peak as investors dump bonds

Emerging market stocks advanced on Wednesday as investors fleeing a selloff in bonds poured cash into equities, while Russia’s rouble eased marginally after Ukraine said talks with Moscow were “confrontational” but moving forward.

Global bond markets have slumped in recent sessions on signs that the US Federal Reserve would act even more aggressively to tame inflation, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields jumping to its highest since May 2019. 

That has left cash on the table for equities, and helped MSCI’s index of EM stocks rise 0.8 percent to its highest in nearly three weeks on Wednesday.

Emerging currencies, meanwhile, were flat against a steady dollar. The rouble continued to hover around 104 against the greenback as investors waited for US President Joe Biden to unveil new sanctions against Russia.

South African currency

South Africa’s rand firmed slightly after data showed that headline consumer price inflation was at 5.7 percent in February, unchanged from January.

The South African Reserve Bank is expected to raise its repo rate to 4.25 percent on Thursday to combat inflation, according to a Reuters poll.

“The sudden more hawkish stance by developed market central banks ... provides added incentive for the SARB to increase rates in congruence with its peers and try to limit capital outflows,” said Shaun Murison, a senior market analyst at IG.

“Of concern is that the size of the South African economy remains smaller than it was pre-pandemic and will remain so in the coming years, unless growth can be stimulated significantly higher than what is currently forecast.”

Improved risk sentiment and high commodity prices could boost the prospects of some emerging market assets, even as supply disruptions and weak external demand raise risks of weaker growth, analysts have said.

Argentina interest rate

Elsewhere, Argentina’s central bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 44.5 percent from 42.5 percent, the third hike this year as the bank takes aim at a global supply shock.

Turkey’s lira

Turkey’s lira firmed 0.2 percent as data showed consumer confidence in the country climbed 1.3 percent in March, rebounding from a decline in the previous month.

Egyptian pound

The Egyptian pound steadied after two days of losses, with more signs of a possible new finance package with the International Monetary Fund emerging after the government announced a budget restructuring.

South Korean won

The South Korean won also steadied after the country nominated veteran IMF official Rhee Chang-yong as its new central bank chief, a pick who is expected to continue efforts to curb inflation with aggressive rate hikes.

 

 

 


Gold falls on firmer US dollar and rising trade optimism

Updated 25 July 2025
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Gold falls on firmer US dollar and rising trade optimism

BENGALURU: Gold prices fell on Friday, pressured by a recovery in the US dollar and optimism over progress in trade talks between the US and the EU.

Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $3,343.0 per ounce by 1:50 p.m. Saudi time. US gold futures fell 0.9 percent to $3,344.50.

The US dollar index rebounded from more than a two-week low, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, while benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose.

A resurgence in risk appetite driven by optimism over potential tariff negotiations, and better-than-expected jobless claims reinforcing the view that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates, is pressuring gold, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades.

“There is an element of uncertainty that still lingers ... with a strong support around $3,300, I see the potential for gold prices to rise should new episodes of volatility be triggered,” he said.

The European Commission said on Thursday a negotiated trade solution with the US is within reach — while EU members voted to approve counter-tariffs on €93 billion euros ($109 billion) of US goods in case the talks collapse.

Data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labor market conditions.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates in a tense visit to the US central bank on Thursday, less than a week before the next rate-setting meeting where policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady.

Markets are pricing in a potential rate cut in September.

Gold typically performs well during periods of uncertainty and in low-interest-rate environments.

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.5 percent to $38.90 per ounce, but was on track for a weekly gain, up about 1.9 percent so far. Platinum lost 0.6 percent to $1,400.02 and palladium slipped 0.7 percent to $1,219.20. 


Saudi real estate loans up 15%, hitting $246bn

Updated 25 July 2025
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Saudi real estate loans up 15%, hitting $246bn

RIYADH: Real estate loans by Saudi Arabia’s commercial banks climbed to a record SR922.2 billion ($245.9 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, marking an annual increase of just over 15 percent.

Based on data from the Kingdom’s central bank, also known as SAMA, this expansion is the fastest year-on-year growth in nearly two years, and underscores a robust resurgence in property financing.

This was driven chiefly by a surge in lending to commercial real estate projects even as home mortgages, which still form the lion’s share, grew at a more moderate pace.

Saudi banks’ retail mortgages, which are primarily home loans to individuals, accounted for about 75.8 percent of total outstanding real estate credit in the first quarter, reaching SR698.8 billion.

This represents an 11.7 percent year-on-year rise. Corporate real estate loans — the funding provided to developers and commercial ventures — grew nearly 27.5 percent over the same period to SR223.4 billion, outpacing the retail segment’s growth several times over.

Although smaller in absolute terms, the corporate real estate portfolio has been expanding at its fastest pace in almost a decade according to SAMA data, boosting its share of total real estate credit to roughly 24 percent and signaling a significant shift in banks’ lending focus.

Drive to boost home ownership

This marked rebalancing comes after a prolonged period during which Saudi bank lending was largely fueled by residential mortgages. Over the past few years, government-backed housing programs helped drive home ownership from under 50 percent a decade ago to over 65 percent by 2024.

That mortgage boom saw banks’ loan books tilt heavily toward retail customers. Now, a structural pivot is underway. Companies and developers have become the dominant force in credit growth as banks pivot from consumer finance to funding large projects and enterprises.

Business loans across all sectors now make up 55.3 percent of Saudi bank lending as of May according to SAMA data, up from about 52.9 percent a year ago, with corporate credit growing over 21 percent year on year, more than double the 10 percent rise in personal lending.

Bank credit to real estate has accelerated in tandem with high-profile initiatives, from new residential communities in major cities to the gigantic NEOM smart city, as well as Red Sea tourism resorts and other large mixed-use projects that require substantial funding for land acquisition, construction and development.

The momentum is further bolstered by upcoming global events like the 2030 FIFA World Cup and Expo 2030, which are expected to inject capital and spur even more infrastructure and real estate development in the lead-up to those events.

This reflects massive projects such as new airports, rail lines, and ports that are moving ahead and require significant funding. The government’s National Transport and Logistics Strategy envisages about $150 billion in infrastructure investments by 2030, with 80 percent of that expected to come from the private sector via public-private partnerships.

Accordingly, banks are playing a pivotal role by lending to contractors and logistics firms involved in these ventures, ensuring that crucial projects have the financing they need.

Policy support and bank strategies

Saudi authorities have actively fostered an environment to support this lending shift toward commercial projects. Strengthening the real estate and financial sectors is a key goal of Vision 2030, and the government has rolled out measures to encourage private investment in large developments.

One major approach is the promotion of public-private partnerships and improved financing mechanisms to draw in non-government capital. The government is collaborating with banks and investors to streamline funding for mega-projects, including establishing new specialized financing companies and joint venture models that ease funding constraints.

The Private Sector Participation Law enacted in 2021 provides a transparent legal framework for domestic and foreign investors to take part in infrastructure and real estate projects alongside the public sector.

By simplifying regulations, offering incentives, and even initiating early phases of key projects itself, to demonstrate viability, the state aims to boost private-sector confidence and lending to these ventures.

These initiatives are creating a more conducive climate for banks to extend credit to corporate clients, knowing that many projects have government backing or facilitation.

At the same time, Saudi banks themselves are adapting their strategies to sustain the lending boom while managing risks. Banks remain well-capitalized and have robust capital buffers, with sector-wide capital adequacy around 19 percent according to SAMA data, enabling them to expand credit without compromising stability.

Many lenders are also exploring innovative ways to unlock liquidity and fund new loans. 

Industry analysts point out that banks are considering mortgage securitization, converting pools of home loans into bonds that can be sold to investors, as a means to free up balance sheet capacity.

A recent report by Fitch Ratings likewise noted that turning mortgage assets into tradable securities would expand Saudi Arabia’s debt market and give banks an additional funding boost.

Such financial agility, combined with disciplined cost control and solid deposit growth, positions the banking sector to actively support the Kingdom’s development priorities and finance Vision 2030 initiatives on a larger scale.

Saudi interest rates, which move in tandem with US Federal Reserve policy, have risen to their highest levels in nearly two decades, a factor that might ordinarily cool credit demand. 

However, the strategic importance and expected returns of mega-projects mean that demand for credit remains strong even in a high-rate climate.

Many large-scale developments benefit from government guarantees or contracts that make bank financing viable despite higher interest costs, and banks are competing to syndicate and participate in these deals.


Oil Updates — crude steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase

Updated 25 July 2025
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Oil Updates — crude steady as investors weigh trade optimism against potential Venezuelan supply increase

  • EU says trade deal with US within reach
  • US prepares to allow limited oil operations in Venezuela, sources say

LONDON: Oil prices were steady on Friday, as trade talk optimism supported the outlook for both the global economy and oil demand, balancing news of the potential for more oil supply from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $69.46 a barrel at 3:11 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 27 cents, or 0.41 percent, at $66.30.

Brent was heading for a 0.3 percent weekly gain at that level, while WTI was down around 1.5 percent from where it closed last week.

Brent prices have been largely range-bound between $67 and $70 a barrel for the last month, since the sharp drop in prices in late June after de-escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Oil prices are “caught in largely a holding pattern brought about by inconclusive specific oil drivers,” PVM analyst John Evans said.

Oil, along with stock markets, gained support from the prospect of more deals between the US and trading partners ahead of an August 1 deadline for new tariffs on goods from an array of countries.

After the US and Japan secured a trade deal this week, two European diplomats said the EU was moving toward a deal involving a baseline US tariff of 15 percent on EU imports, plus possible exemptions.

“Trade talk optimism appears to be offsetting expectations for stronger Venezuelan supply,” ING analysts wrote in a client note on Friday.

The US is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA, starting with US oil major Chevron, to operate with limitations in the sanctioned nation, sources said on Thursday.

Venezuelan oil exports could consequently increase by a little more than 200,000 barrels per day, which would be welcome news for US refiners, as it would ease tightness in the heavier crude market, ING analysts wrote.

Prices were also supported this week by disruptions to Black Sea oil exports and Azeri BTC crude loading from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

“Delays in deliveries from the Russian terminal on the Black Sea and the Turkish port on the Mediterranean are likely to have contributed to the Brent oil price rising back toward $70. Now that exports are back to normal, support for prices is likely to ease,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 10,945 

Updated 24 July 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 10,945 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Thursday, falling 38.13 points, or 0.35 percent, to close at 10,945.80. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index reached SR4.92 billion ($1.31 billion), with 112 stocks advancing and 137 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 120.10 points, or 0.45 percent, to close at 26,898.25. A total of 49 listed stocks advanced, while 24 retreated. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index also edged down, losing 3.66 points, or 0.26 percent, to close at 1,408.07. 

The best-performing stock of the day was Saudi AZM for Communication and Information Technology Co., whose share price surged 9.96 percent to SR29.14. 

Other top performers included Northern Region Cement Co., which saw its share price rise 6.29 percent to SR8.11, and Obeikan Glass Co., which climbed 6.20 percent to SR37.

Sport Clubs Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 7.34 percent to SR10.22. 

Gulf Union Alahlia Cooperative Insurance Co. also saw its share price decline by 4.56 percent to SR14.22. 

National Medical Care Co. dropped 3.51 percent to close at SR164.80. 

On the announcements front, Electrical Industries Co. released its interim financial results for the period ending June 30.

According to a Tadawul statement, the company recorded a net profit of SR260 million during the first six months of the year, reflecting a 47.9 percent rise compared to the same period a year earlier. The increase in net profit was attributed to a broader product mix and higher sales of items with stronger profit margins. 

Electrical Industries Co. ended the session at SR8.99, down 2.21 percent. 

Alinma Bank also announced its interim financial results for the first half of the year. A bourse filing revealed that the company recorded a net profit of SR3.08 billion in the period ending June 30, up 12.8 percent year on year.

This increase was primarily linked to growth in total operating income. Net income rose as operating income expanded by 8.5 percent, driven mainly by higher returns from financing and investments, along with increased fee and foreign exchange income. 

The bank also announced the board of directors’ recommendation to distribute SR746 million in cash dividends to shareholders for the second quarter of 2025.

According to a Tadawul statement, the total number of shares eligible for dividends stood at 2.4 billion, with a dividend per share of SR0.30 after the deduction of Zakat. The dividend represented 3 percent of the share’s par value. 

Alinma Bank closed the session at SR26.38, down 1.60 percent. 


Saudi Arabia signs $6.4bn investment deals with Syria to boost reconstruction

Updated 24 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia signs $6.4bn investment deals with Syria to boost reconstruction

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has signed investment deals worth $6.4 billion with Syria, marking a significant step in the Kingdom’s efforts to re-engage economically with the war-ravaged country and support its reconstruction drive. 

The agreements, spanning sectors such as real estate, telecommunications, and finance, were unveiled by Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih during the Syrian-Saudi Investment Forum held in Damascus on July 24. 

The forum highlights Saudi Arabia’s strong commitment to strengthening Syria’s financial landscape. In April, the Kingdom joined Qatar in settling the country’s $15 million debt to the World Bank. 

“During this forum, we will witness the signing of 47 agreements and memoranda of understanding with a total value approaching SR24 billion ($6.4 billion), said Al-Falih. 

The deals include $1.07 billion in the telecommunications sector, with Syria’s Ministry of Communications and several Saudi telecom companies aiming to deepen bilateral ties. 

Companies involved in the plans include Saudi Telecom Co., GO Telecom, digital security firm Elm, cybersecurity company Cipher, and education technology firm Classera. 

In the real estate and infrastructure sectors, deals worth $2.93 billion were announced, including the construction of three new Saudi-financed cement plants to support Syria’s reconstruction efforts. 

The two nations also agreed to enhance cooperation in agriculture. 

“In the agricultural sector, we look forward to collaborating in Syria to develop high-quality joint projects, including model farms and processing industries,” said Al-Falih. 

In finance, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the Saudi Tadawul Group and the Damascus Securities Exchange to boost cooperation in the fintech sector. 

Al-Falih also announced the formation of a Saudi-Syrian Business Council, which is expected to further strengthen trade and economic ties between the two countries. 

Speaking at a separate panel discussion during the forum, Al-Falih said Syria is evolving into a more investment-friendly destination, despite ongoing challenges. 

“Syria is leaping forward as an investment-attractive country despite all challenges. Since the beginning of its new era, we have witnessed a genuine desire to provide investment opportunities for Saudi businessmen,” he added.