How a Lebanese researcher is using visual data to map Israeli military’s use of white phosphorus

Shells that appears to be white phosphorus from Israeli artillery explode over Dahaira, a Lebanese border village with Israel, south Lebanon, on Oct. 16, 2023. (AP)
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Updated 11 November 2024
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How a Lebanese researcher is using visual data to map Israeli military’s use of white phosphorus

  • White phosphorus is used to create smokescreens on battlefields, but its misuse has many public health implications
  • Ahmad Baydoun maps Israel’s use of the chemical compound in southern Lebanon to document its environmental impact

DUBAI: When Ahmad Baydoun left Lebanon in 2022 to pursue a PhD on weaponized environments in Amsterdam, he did not anticipate his research would soon become essential in documenting devastation in his homeland.

His work has gained significance in the wake of escalating violence in Lebanon’s south, where reports allege Israeli forces have used white phosphorus in populated areas with severe consequences for the environment and public health.

White phosphorus is an incendiary substance known for emitting bright light, intense burning and thick smoke.




A view of M825 and M825A1 artillery shells labeled D528, the US Department of Defense Identification Code for "white phosphorus-based munitions" in Sderot, Israel on October 09, 2023. (Photo by Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Although it is permissible under international law to use phosphorus to obscure military movements, the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons prohibits deploying it near civilians.

Using geolocated visual data to trace the environmental impact of military tactics, Baydoun has been documenting Israel’s use of white phosphorus in southern Lebanon, both to bear witness and to demand accountability.

“Geolocation humanizes those affected and gives precision,” Baydoun told Arab News. “It’s hard to look away when you see the impact on people’s homes and landscapes.”

FASTFACTS

• White phosphorus is a chemical substance that ignites upon exposure to oxygen, creating intense, long-lasting flames and thick smoke.

• It is used militarily to obscure movement, mark targets and create smokescreens on battlefields.

• Contact with white phosphorus causes severe burns, respiratory damage and eye irritation, and it can be fatal if inhaled or absorbed.

• Residual chemicals seep into soil and water, contaminating crops and harming biodiversity, with lasting ecological damage.

• International law restricts white phosphorus use in civilian areas under the Chemical Weapons Convention and Geneva Protocol.

Baydoun’s journey from academia to advocacy was unexpected. His fascination with architectural policies and conflict initially revolved around how built environments could be manipulated for control and exclusion during wartime.

However, when cross-border exchanges between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia began on Oct. 8, 2023, the situation demanded a response.




Wounded Lebanese child Haidar Hijazi, 5, rests at hospital in Sidon on September 27, 2024, after he was injured following an Israeli airstrike that targeted his home village of al-Sharkiyah in southern Lebanon. (AFP)

Hezbollah began firing rockets into populated areas of northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas, prompting Israel to retaliate.

In northern Israel, the conflict has forced some 96,000 people to leave their homes. To date, 68 Israeli security personnel and 43 civilians have been killed, according to official tallies.

Israel’s campaign of airstrikes and “limited” ground operations have displaced more than a million Lebanese from their homes, while the death toll has surpassed 3,000, according to health officials.




Members of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol the southern Lebanese Marjayoun district, near the border with Israel, on October 16, 2024. (AFP)

Baydoun shifted from theoretical work to real-time monitoring, using satellite imagery, social media, and data verification to map alleged phosphorus attacks on Lebanese villages.

The Lebanese National Council for Scientific Research estimates that 117 phosphoric bombs have been fired into southern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold, since October 2023. Many of these have reportedly sparked fires, engulfing fields, forests and villages.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Environment has previously said some 462 hectares of forests and farmland were destroyed between October and November 2023. The Ministry of Health has also called on the international community to condemn the use of white phosphorus and to intervene.




The devastation and destruction of many villages along the Blue Line, and even beyond, is shocking, says Andrea Tenenti, UNIFIL spokesperson

Despite Israel’s insistence that its use of phosphorus serves only as a smokescreen to shield its soldiers’ movements, local Lebanese officials say the weapons are part of a larger strategy to render the area uninhabitable, pushing residents to evacuate en masse.

The use of white phosphorus in populated areas is not just a violation of international law, but a public health threat. When it comes into contact with the skin, it causes extreme, often fatal, burns. It also produces thick fumes that irritate the eyes and respiratory system.

Wounds caused by phosphorus burns can continue to inflict damage days after exposure, requiring extensive medical care — often unavailable in the midst of conflict.




Ahmad Baydoun. (Supplied)

Mental health issues also proliferate among survivors, with conditions such as post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and insomnia becoming prevalent. The persistent psychological impact, especially for children, is immense and underreported.

The environmental damage is equally far-reaching. When the chemical compound seeps into the soil, it contaminates vegetation and crops, potentially rendering large areas of farmland unusable.

Additionally, chemicals can leach into rivers and water systems, destroying biodiversity and threatening communities reliant on these resources.




People watch as a smoke cloud erupts after a rocket fired by an Israeli war plane hit a building in Beirut's southern suburb of Shayah on October 22, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)

“We’re not just talking about Lebanon,” said Baydoun. “If these areas aren’t detoxified, we’ll see consequences across the region. Lebanese agricultural exports could carry these toxins, affecting ecosystems and markets beyond our borders.”

Agriculture makes up a significant part of Lebanon’s economy. The contamination of farmland in Lebanon’s south — an area once responsible for much of the country’s crop production — could deal a severe blow to the local economy and food security.

Farmers in southern Lebanon, many already impoverished, face the loss of homes and livelihoods. The destruction of olive groves, citrus orchards and wheat fields reduces local sustenance and regional exports, deepening Lebanon’s economic crisis.




Fire sweep over the Marjayoun plain in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel after being hit by Israeli shelling on August 16, 2024, amid the ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)

While Baydoun works from Amsterdam, his research methods allow him to follow developments closely.

He employs techniques such as geolocation, where he uses digital imagery and coordinates to pinpoint attacks, and chronolocation, a process of using environmental cues like shadow lengths to estimate times.

These tools help him cross-verify incidents with reliable satellite data, providing accurate, real-time assessments.




A farmer collects his dead livestock which was killed by Israeli bombardment that hit a farm along the hills of the village of Jezzine in southern Lebanon early on July 8, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

“Verifying attacks can be complex given how rife misinformation and AI manipulation have become,” said Baydoun. “But every precise verification adds to a larger story — one that’s too compelling to ignore.”

He is not alone in his commitment to these methods. Collaborating with digital investigative platforms, Baydoun joins a global community of researchers dedicated to documenting environmental violence.

Together, they expose patterns of harm that may otherwise remain concealed.




Medical staff care for victims after the Israeli military struck a Beirut's southern suburb, on July 30, 2024, at Bahman hospital. (AFP)

Baydoun also works closely with Lebanese journalist-activists, who help him obtain localized information from remote areas that journalists can no longer access due to safety concerns.

“No one is there to report on what is happening in the south anymore,” said Baydoun. “There is only the UN Interim Force in Lebanon and satellite imagery as sources of information.

“I have previously worked on a map showing how close Israel was bombing near the UN peacekeepers in the area. The peacekeeping forces suffered from gastrointestinal complications, and skin irritations; both are unique effects of exposure to white phosphorus.”

UNIFIL is a UN peacekeeping mission established in 1978 to administer the Blue Line demarking the border between Israel and Lebanon.

Despite spokesperson Andrea Tenenti previously saying that an investigation had found “possible traces of the use of white phosphorus” in close proximity to a UNIFIL base, a confidential report recently published by the Financial Times has been more damning.

The report mentions various incidents where Israeli forces have mounted attacks on or near UNIFIL bases in Lebanon. In one incident, the Israel Defense Forces reportedly used white phosphorus at close range, injuring 15 UN peacekeepers in the process.

The report details the attack of Oct. 13, in which two Israeli tanks breached the main gate of a UNIFIL base and remained inside for 45 minutes. Shortly after, the IDF fired shells approximately 100 meters north of the base, emitting “suspected white phosphorus smoke,” which injured UNIFIL personnel.

“Despite putting on protective masks, 15 peacekeepers suffered effects, including skin irritation and gastrointestinal reactions after the smoke entered the camp,” the report said.

Israel denied directly striking the compound and said the IDF was using the smokescreen for cover as it attempted to evacuate soldiers.

Israel had previously demanded the withdrawal of the UNIFIL peacekeepers from 31 of their bases along the Israeli-Lebanese border, as the areas had become “active combat zones.”

The international community has faced criticism for its muted response to Israel’s use of white phosphorus in Lebanon.

Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have condemned the use of white phosphorus in densely populated regions in previous conflicts, but statements from world leaders have yet to directly address the allegations in Lebanon.

For Baydoun, his work on the subject serves as both documentation and advocacy. His research could prove critical, providing an account of Lebanon’s suffering that would otherwise go unseen. But the toll is personal, too.

“I’ve had my share of sleepless nights,” he said. “Emotions run high when attacks happen close to loved ones. You’re working for your country, and it’s hard to stop.”

 


Fires at key Sudan fuel depot ‘fully contained

Updated 58 min 57 sec ago
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Fires at key Sudan fuel depot ‘fully contained

  • A military source told AFP on condition of anonymity on Saturday that air defenses in the towns of Jebeit and Sinkat
  • Port Sudan is the main entry point for humanitarian aid into Sudan and UN chief Antonio Guterres

PORT SUDAN: Sudan’s civil defense forces said on Sunday they had “fully contained” fires that erupted at the main fuel depot and other strategic sites in Port Sudan — the seat of the army-backed government which has come under drone attacks blamed on paramilitaries over the past week.
In a statement posted on the force’s Facebook page, civil defense director Osman Atta said the fires — involving “large quantities of petroleum reserves” — were brought under control following an intensive operation using “foam materials” and a “meticulously executed plan.”
The fires caused by a strike on the fuel depot last Monday had spread across “warehouses filled with fuel,” the Sudanese army-aligned authorities said, warning of a “potential disaster in the area.”
The Red Sea port city, which had been seen as a safe haven from the devastating two-year conflict between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, has been hit by daily drone strikes since last Sunday.
The long-range attacks have damaged several key facilities, including the country’s sole international civilian airport, its largest working fuel depot and the city’s main power station.
A military source told AFP on condition of anonymity on Saturday that air defenses in the towns of Jebeit and Sinkat — around 120 kilometers west of Port Sudan — shot down two drones that had been targeting facilities in the area.
Witnesses also reported on Sunday drone strikes targeting the airport in Atbara, a city in the northern state of River Nile.
Port Sudan is the main entry point for humanitarian aid into Sudan and UN chief Antonio Guterres warned the attacks “threaten to increase humanitarian needs and further complicate aid operations in the country,” his spokesman said.
More than two years of fighting have killed tens of thousands of people and uprooted 13 million in what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.


MSF-run hospital in Amman treats war casualties from across Middle East

Updated 11 May 2025
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MSF-run hospital in Amman treats war casualties from across Middle East

  • At Al-Mowasah, also known as the Specialized Hospital for Reconstructive Surgery, is run by medical charity Doctors Without Borders
  • MSF says the hospital has patients from conflict zones across the Middle East, such as Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Gaza

AMMAN: Shahd Tahrawi was wounded in an Israeli strike on Gaza, Hossam Abd Al-Rahman suffered burns in an explosion in Iraq and bombardment in Yemen has left Mohammed Zakaria in need of multiple surgeries.
They all met at the charitable Al-Mowasah hospital in the Jordanian capital Amman, which treats some of the many civilians wounded in conflicts across the Middle East.
“I feel sad when I look around me in this place” seeing “people like me, innocent, simple civilians” whose lives have been blighted by the horrors of war, said Abd Al-Rahman, a 21-year-old Iraqi patient.
“They are victims of war, burned by its fires... but had no part in igniting them,” he told AFP.
He is waiting for his ninth operation at the Amman hospital, to treat third-degree burns to his face, neck, abdomen, back and hand he suffered in an accident with unexploded ordnance in his native city of Samarra, north of Baghdad.
“I was a child when I was burned 10 years ago,” he said.
“My life was completely destroyed, and my future was lost. I left school even though my dream was to become a pilot one day.”

Hanna Janho, orthopedic and joint surgery consultant examines a patient at the Al-Mowasah hospital, run by medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) in Amman, on April 15, 2025. (AFP)

Abd Al-Rahman, who had 17 surgeries in Iraq before arriving at the hospital in Jordan, said that through “all these painful operations,” he hopes to “regain some of my appearance and life as a normal human being.”
At Al-Mowasah, also known as the Specialized Hospital for Reconstructive Surgery and run by medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF), Abd Al-Rahman said he has found comfort in meeting patients from around the region.
“We spend long periods of time here, sometimes many months, and these friendships reduce our loneliness and homesickness.”

MSF field communications manager Merel van de Geyn said the hospital has patients “from conflict zones across the Middle East, from Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Gaza.”
“We provide them with complete treatment free of charge” and cover the cost of flights, food and other expenses, she said.
In addition to the medical procedures, the hospital places great importance on psychological support.
“Here, they feel safe,” said van de Geyn.
“They’re surrounded by people who have gone through similar experiences... Mutual support truly helps them.”
From her room on the hospital’s fifth floor, Shahd Tahrawi, a 17-year-old Palestinian, recalled the night of December 9, 2023, when a massive explosion destroyed her family’s home in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip.
The Israeli bombardment killed her father and 11-year-old sister, and left Shahd and her mother wounded.
Shahd has had five operations on her left leg, three of them in Jordan.

Shahd Tahrawi, who was wounded in an Israeli strike on the Gaza Strip, uses crutches to walk at the Al-Mowasah hospital, run by medical charity Doctors Without Borders in Amman, on April 15, 2025. (AFP)

She said that on the night of the strike, she was woken up by the sound of the explosion and the rubble falling on her.
“I started screaming, ‘Help me, help me!’... and then I lost conciousness.”
Now, she said her dream was to become a doctor and help “save people’s lives, just like the doctors save mine.”

The hospital was established in 2006 to treat victims of the sectarian violence that erupted in Iraq in the aftermath of the US-led invasion, but has since expanded its mission.
In just under two decades, 8,367 patients from Iraq, Yemen, the Palestinian territories, Sudan, Libya and Syria have undergone a total of 18,323 surgeries for injuries caused by bullets, explosions, bombardment, air strikes and building collapses in conflict.
The hospital has 148 beds, three operating theaters, and physiotherapy and psychological support departments.

Young patients, who sustained injuries in conflict zones, gather at the MSF-run Al-Mosawah hospital in Amman on April 15, 2025. (AFP)

In one room, four Yemeni patients were convalescing.
One of them, 16-year-old Mohammed Zakaria, had dreamt of becoming a professional footballer, before his life changed dramatically when an air strike blew up a fuel tanker in Yarim, south of the Yemeni capital Sanaa, in 2016.
The blast killed six of his relatives and friends, his father, Zakaria Hail, said.
“The war has brought us nothing but destruction,” said the father, sitting next to his son who is unable to speak after recent surgery to his mouth.
 


Israeli airstrikes kill 23 in Gaza as outcry over aid blockade grows

Updated 11 May 2025
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Israeli airstrikes kill 23 in Gaza as outcry over aid blockade grows

  • Israel has said the blockade is meant to pressure Hamas to release remaining hostages and disarm

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza City: Israeli airstrikes overnight and into Saturday killed at least 23 Palestinians in Gaza, including three children and their parents whose tent was bombed in Gaza City, health officials said.
The bombardment continued as international warnings grow over Israeli plans to control aid distribution in Gaza as Israel’s blockade on the territory of over 2 million people is in its third month.
The UN and aid groups have rejected Israel’s aid distribution moves, including a plan from a group of American security contractors, ex-military officers and humanitarian aid officials calling itself the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
Among the 23 bodies brought to hospitals over the past 24 hours were those of the family of five whose tent was struck in Gaza City’s Sabra district, Gaza’s Health Ministry said.
Another Israeli strike late Friday hit a warehouse belonging to UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, in the northern area of Jabaliya. Four people were killed, according to the Indonesian Hospital, where bodies were taken.
AP video showed fires burning in the shattered building. The warehouse was empty after being hit and raided multiple times during Israeli ground offensives against Hamas fighters over the past year, said residents including Hamza Mohamed.
Israel’s military said nine soldiers were lightly wounded Friday night by an explosive device while searching Gaza City’s Shijaiyah neighborhood. It said they were evacuated to a hospital in Israel.
Israel resumed its bombardment in Gaza on March 18, shattering a two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Ground troops have seized more than half the territory and have been conducting raids and searching parts of northern Gaza and the southernmost city of Rafah. Large parts of both areas have been flattened by months of Israeli operations.
Under Israel’s blockade, charity kitchens are virtually the only source of food left in Gaza, but dozens have shut down in recent days as food supplies run out. Aid groups say more closures are imminent. Israel has said the blockade is meant to pressure Hamas to release remaining hostages and disarm. Rights groups have called the blockade a “starvation tactic” and a potential war crime.
Israel accuses Hamas and other militants of siphoning off aid in Gaza, though it hasn’t presented evidence for its claims. The UN denies significant diversion takes place, saying it monitors distribution.
The 19-month-old war in Gaza is the most devastating ever fought between Israel and Hamas. It has killed more than 52,800 people there, more than half of them women and children, and wounded more than 119,000, according to the Health Ministry. The ministry’s count does not differentiate between civilians and combatants. Israel says it has killed thousands of militants, without giving evidence.
Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel in which militants killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped over 250 others. Hamas still holds about 59 hostages, with around a third believed to still be alive.
Hamas released a video Saturday showing hostages Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana, who appeared under duress. They were abducted during the Oct. 7 attack from a music festival where over 300 people were killed. Hamas released a video of them a month and half ago and has released several videos of Bohbot alone since then.
Protesters on Saturday night rallied once more in Tel Aviv to demand a ceasefire that would bring all hostages home.
“Can you grasp this? The Israeli government is about to embark on a military operation that could and will endanger the lives of the hostages,” Michel Illouz, father of hostage Guy Illouz, told the gathering, referring to the plan to vastly expand operations in Gaza.


Why Israel’s Gaza reoccupation threat is fueling fears of regional spillover

Updated 11 May 2025
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Why Israel’s Gaza reoccupation threat is fueling fears of regional spillover

  • Analysts warn of slide toward ethnic cleansing as Israel signals plans for indefinite military control over enclave
  • Palestinian plight worsens as far-right voices increasingly influence Israeli war aims ahead of Trump’s Gulf tour

LONDON: For the people of Gaza, the threat of destruction, displacement and death at the hands of the Israeli military is nothing new.

But for the next week they will living with a countdown to a threatened operation that would be unprecedented: the complete and indefinite occupation of Gaza by Israel, and the forcing of its Palestinian population into a tiny area in the south of the strip.

If such an unthinkable end-game exercise were to go ahead — and reports that tens of thousands of Israeli reservists are being called up suggests it might — critics of the plan say Israel appears to have forgotten the lessons of the events that led to its own creation in 1948.

According to sources inside the Israeli government, the only thing standing between the Palestinians of Gaza and this 21st-century Nakba is next week’s visit to the region by US President Donald Trump, who is due to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE between Tuesday and Friday. 

A picture taken near Israel's border with Gaza shows Israeli armored vehicles and bulldozers returning to the besieged Palestinian territory on May 8, 2025, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. (AFP) 

On Tuesday this week an unnamed Israeli defense official told AP that the operation would not be launched before Trump had left the region, adding there was a “window of opportunity” for a ceasefire and a hostage deal during the president’s visit.

And so, the countdown to the military operation began. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his security cabinet had approved an “intensive” renewed offensive against Hamas in Gaza, and that Palestinians would be moved “for their own safety.”

“Last night we stayed up late in the cabinet and decided on an intensive operation in Gaza,” Netanyahu said.

A US-backed truce between Israel and Hamas ended in March, after only two months, when Israel resumed its attacks.

It was, Netanyahu added, seeming to tether a scapegoat to the decision, “the chief of staff’s recommendation to proceed, as he put it, toward the defeat of Hamas — and along the way, he believes this will also help us rescue the hostages.”

News of the plan triggered immediate protests outside Israel’s parliament by families of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. Few among them believe the plan has anything to do with a genuine desire to see their loved ones freed.

Israelis demonstrate in front of the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv on May 10, 2025, calling on the Netanyahu government to end the war and to secure the release of the hostages held since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas militants. (AFP) 

The chief of the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces is retired Major-General Eyal Zamir, a favorite of the far-right members of Israel’s government, who was appointed only last month. His predecessor resigned, after taking responsibility for Israel’s military failings during the Hamas attack in October 2023.

“I’m pretty sure Zamir is praying that he will not have to execute this plan,” Ahron Bregman, a UK-based Israeli historian and senior teaching fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, and a former IDF officer, told Arab News. “He’s experienced enough to know that the operation might well kill the remaining Israeli hostages, or lead to a situation where the hostages are left to die in the tunnels without water or food, never to be found.

“As I have always maintained, Israel cannot destroy Hamas. Hamas, weak, bleeding and exhausted, will still be in the Gaza Strip when this hopeless war is over,” he added.

Israeli troops, who have evicted Palestinians from so-called security zones, already occupy about one-third of Gaza. If implemented, the new plan would see the seizure of the entire territory, with Gaza’s remaining two million Palestinians forced toward the south.

The UN has already expressed alarm at Israel’s plan to expand its operation in Gaza. “This will inevitably lead to countless more civilians killed and the further destruction of Gaza,” UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said on Monday. “What’s imperative now is an end to the violence, not more civilian deaths and destruction.”

Palestinians and Hamas fighters attend a funeral procession for 40 militants and civilians killed during the war with Israel, at the Shati camp for Palestinian refugees north of Gaza City on February 28, 2025. (AFP)

He added: “Gaza is, and must remain, an integral part of a future Palestinian state.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s security cabinet has voted to end distribution of aid by international NGOs and UN bodies, and to give the job to as-yet unnamed private companies. At the beginning of the month, the UN condemned Israel’s decision two months ago to halt humanitarian aid as a “cruel collective punishment” of the Palestinian population.

On Friday, Mike Huckabee, US ambassador to Israel, said a US-backed mechanism for distributing aid into Gaza should take effect soon but he gave few details. Israel and the US have both indicated in recent days that they were preparing to restore aid through mechanisms that would bypass Hamas.

“The Israeli military plan for Gaza is mainly aimed at satisfying the far-right elements in Netanyahu’s government,” said Bregman. “The new idea here is seizing chunks of the Gaza Strip and staying there, not getting out, as used to be the case.”

Right-wing, pro-settler members of the Israeli Cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr, “hope that staying inside will eventually lead to the resettling of the Gaza Strip by Jewish settlers who will resort to the tactics they employ on the West Bank, building settlements even if ‘official Israel’ opposes it,” he added. “They also trust far-right elements in the IDF — and the IDF is packed with them, especially in the ground forces — to turn a blind eye and enable the resettling of the Strip.” 

But, he warned, “if ordered to implement the Gaza plan, Israeli troops must refuse to carry out the orders, lest they turn themselves into war criminals.”

On Tuesday, the day after Netanyahu’s announcement, Smotrich told a settlements conference in the West Bank that Gaza would soon be “totally destroyed,” and that its entire population would be “concentrated” in a narrow strip of land along the Egyptian border, which he euphemistically described as a “humanitarian zone.” 

Here, he added, ”they will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and British consul-general in Jerusalem, told Arab News: “There are clearly elements within the Israeli Cabinet who want to reoccupy some or even all of Gaza and there are others who want to establish settlements. What is unclear is how extensive or long-term such plans are — and whether they have Netanyahu’s full support.

Sir John Jenkins, former UK ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Syria, and British consul-general in Jerusalem. (Supplied)

“He has clearly got his own tactical reasons for going along with some of the wilder claims: he needs to keep Smotrich and Ben Gvir inside the tent in order to maintain his government. He also probably genuinely believes — as, quite rightly, do most Israelis and a lot of outsiders — that Hamas cannot be allowed to retain political control of Gaza when the fighting stops.

“But he must also know that without a long-term political plan, this won’t work. Israel needs its neighbors to support it in its quest for security. And they will do so only if they have an answer to the question: How do we collectively make Israeli security compatible with Palestinian self-determination?”

Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said it remains unclear whether Israel’s threat of reoccupation is “a form of deterrence, a credible threat, or a last-ditch effort to (force) Hamas’ hand.”

However, “the fear of abandoning the Israeli hostages to a terrible fate is too much to bear for the majority of the Israeli polity, and this would inevitably have consequences for the current Israeli government,” he told Arab News.

President Trump’s upcoming visit may also change the script. “It is rumored that Trump is not on board with Israel’s escalation of the war in Gaza, especially ahead of his visit to the Gulf next week,” said Ozcelik. “The White House has been pressing for a deal to announce as a triumph and a hostage-release announcement would be a crucial win for (US special envoy to the Middle East) Steve Witkoff, but so far it has been elusive.”

Furthermore, “under the threat of a looming ‘forever’ Israeli reoccupation of Gaza, Saudi Arabia cannot be expected to agree to any deal with the US that is conditional on normalization with Israel. So, this, in a counterintuitive way, throws open a path for US-Saudi security cooperation,” Ozcelik added.

Doubts also surround the announcement by Witkoff that the US will set up a private foundation to deliver aid to Gaza, without involving the IDF or the US government. 

“The UN and key international humanitarian agencies have already rejected both the US and Israeli aid proposals, labelling them highly unworkable,” Kelly Petillo, program manager, MENA, at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Arab News.

“And in the context of Israel’s campaign of starvation by stopping humanitarian aid since March and the targeting of civilians, hospitals, schools and so on, and of the new US administration’s rhetoric around the Gaza war and overall positioning, there are clearly doubts over the lack of good will by the delivering authorities, which means that Palestinians will be starved and eventually be forced to leave. 

Palestinians struggle to obtain donated food at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 9, 2025. (AP Photo)
Ward Nar, left, reacts as she speaks with the photographer after returning empty-handed from attempting to receive donated food for her family, including her husband Mohammed Zaharna (center right) and their children at a community kitchen in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 9, 2025. (AP Photo)

“This would amount to ethnic cleansing and also corresponds to weaponizing aid and using starvation as a weapon of war. It will mean that considerations over how many people will receive aid, or where distribution will occur, would be based on strategic or military considerations, rather than humanitarian ones.” 

Israel’s apparent ambition to force Palestinians out of Gaza can only further stoke regional tensions, added Petillo. 

“Regional actors, (most) of all Egypt and Jordan, have been very clear in their total rejection of any displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, and of the possibility of them receiving these refugees. In particular, Egypt has come up with a proposal to address aid and other issues as a way to counter this scenario. 

Displaced Palestinians gather amid the rubble of an UNRWA school-turned-shelter, heavily damaged in an overnight Israeli strike in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on May 10, 2025. (AFP)

“But the potential displacement of Palestinians in Gaza is nothing less than an existential threat for these countries which are also receiving so many other refugees — from Syria to Sudan and more. Syria and Lebanon have also been floated as possible destinations for Gazans, but this would be a major red line for these countries too.”

Echoing Petillo’s concerns, Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said the Israeli plan to capture and indefinitely occupy Gaza “carries grave policy implications at multiple layers and levels for Israel, Palestinians and the region.”

Vakil said: “Beyond deepening an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis, it risks entrenching violent resistance, destabilizing neighboring states and triggering large-scale displacement that may be viewed internationally as ethnic cleansing — particularly in light of right-wing Israeli rhetoric and emboldening signals from past US policies.

“While Israel consistently sees Gaza as an existential security crisis that needs a military solution, it needs to take a step back and consider the larger and longer implications for its isolation, integration and values as a democracy,” she added. “Today, Arab states are watching Israel’s response in a fearful rather than (admiring) way.”

In this photo taken on August 8, 2024, displaced Palestinians leave an area in east Khan Yunis towards the west, after the Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of the city. (AFP)

Caroline Rose, director of the Strategic Blind Spots Portfolio at the Washington think-tank New Lines Institute, said the expansion in Israel’s war plan for the Gaza Strip “signals Netanyahu’s imperative to continue the conflict as a mechanism of political survival, despite the strain on Israel’s economy, IDF personnel and reserves, and reduced chances for a hostage agreement.”

She told Arab News: “It’s likely also that Netanyahu and his cabinet are seeking to expand operations as a negotiation tool with the US and its regional counterparts, particularly following disappointment with the US for exploring negotiation opportunities with Iran over their nuclear program.”

But “by design, this war plan will have serious implications for the civilian population of Gaza, as there are very few places left for them to go. It is a direct reflection of Netanyahu’s broader objective not only to eradicate Hamas, but also to seriously fragment the Palestinian cause and identity.”

In the past, said Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli lawyer whose NGO, Terrestrial Jerusalem, tracks developments in the city that threaten to spark violence or create humanitarian crises, “ethnic cleansing would have been unthinkable. But today the unthinkable has become thinkable and is unfolding in Gaza.” 

The Israeli government is “willing hostage to the messianic right” and is led by “a prime minister who will not only do anything to remain in power but is also a genuine believer in a world governed by war and brute force.”

More and more Israelis, he added, “are using the terms ‘genocide,’ ‘war crimes’ and ‘ethnic cleansing’ in decrying our actions in Gaza. Retired generals and former heads of the intelligence community are prominent among them.”

However, he said, “this trend is not visible in the partisan politics of the Knesset. With the exception of the Arab members, they remain spineless.”
 

 


Syrian leader discusses regional affairs with Bahrain’s king

Updated 10 May 2025
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Syrian leader discusses regional affairs with Bahrain’s king

  • Al-Sharaa’s leadership has been improving ties with Arab and Western countries

BEIRUT: The president of the Syrian Arab Republic flew to Bahrain on Saturday where he discussed mutual relations and regional affairs with King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa on his latest trip abroad since taking office in January.

Al-Sharaa’s leadership has been improving ties with Arab and Western countriesSyria’s state news agency, SANA, said President Ahmad Al-Sharaa was heading a high-ranking delegation to Bahrain.

Bahrain’s news agency said the two leaders discussed mutual relations and ways of boosting them, as well as regional affairs and ways of backing Syria’s security and stability.

Al-Sharaa’s visit to Bahrain comes days before US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit the region for talks with leaders of Gulf Arab nations.

Since taking office, Al-Sharaa has visited Arab and regional countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Turkiye. 

Earlier this week, he made his first trip to Europe where he met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris and announced that his country is having indirect talks with Israel.

After Assad’s fall, Syria and its neighbors have been calling for the lifting of Western sanctions that were imposed on Assad during the early months of the country’s conflict that broke out in March 2011.

The lifting of sanctions would open the way for the Gulf countries to take part in funding Syria’s reconstruction from the destruction caused by the conflict that has killed nearly half a million people.

The UN in 2017 estimated that it would cost at least $250 billion to rebuild Syria. Some experts now say that number could reach at least $400 billion.

In April, Saudi Arabia and Qatar said they will pay Syria’s outstanding debt to the World Bank, a move likely to make the international institution resume its support to the war-torn country.

Since the fall of Assad, a close ally of Iran, Syria’s new leadership has been improving the country’s relations with Arab and Western countries.