Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 08 December 2024
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Is the ‘writing on the wall’ for Syria’s Assad?

Anti-government fighters patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city, on December 6, 2024. (AFP)
  • Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly”
  • As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary”

PARIS: More than 13 years since Bashar Assad’s security forces opened fire on protesters demanding democratic reforms, the Syrian president’s grip on power may finally be weakening.
The 59-year-old son and heir of late dictator Hafez Assad has faced several setbacks during the long civil war triggered by his brutal crackdown in March 2011, but has so far managed to cling on to power.
Now, with his Lebanese ally Hezbollah reeling from an Israeli onslaught and his great power backer Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Assad is running short of friends on the battlefield.
Key cities in the north, including Aleppo and Hama have fallen to opposition fighters in just a matter of days.
And on Saturday the militants said they are now encircling the capital where Assad has ruled since the death of his father in 2000.
Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has welcomed the militant advance; Israel is reinforcing its forces in the occupied Golan; and Syria’s southern neighbor Jordan is organizing an evacuation of its citizens.
In a further sign of Assad’s isolation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group, which controls much of northeast Syria, said it was ready to speak to its foes among the Turkish-backed militants.
But international observers have repeatedly predicted the isolated former ophthalmologist’s fall since the earliest months of the uprising, and they have repeatedly been incorrect.
The 2011 protests against Assad’s rule began after a teenager was arrested for allegedly scrawling anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa.

Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall,” Joshua Landis, of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma told AFP. “Things are folding very quickly.”
The militant advance has been stunning.
After Aleppo and Hama fell in quick succession, the militants and government forces were clashing Saturday near the major city of Homs.
Its capture would effectively cut Assad’s capital off from his support base in the Alawite minority community in the coastal highlands.
“The Alawite minority has lost faith in Assad,” Landis said. “There are serious questions about whether the Syrian army has any fight left.”
But some caution is merited. After all, haven’t world leaders underestimated Assad before?
As early as November 2011, Turkiye’s Erdogan urged Assad to hold free elections and warned that his “office is only temporary.”
In October 2012, during a re-election campaign debate, US president Barack Obama also warned Assad that his “days are numbered.”
The next month, Nabil Elaraby, then the head of the Arab League, declared “everyone knows that the government in Syria will not remain for long.”
The Syrian strongman defied them all, even as international lawyers drew up arrest warrants for war crimes and rights groups denounced Syria’s use of chemical weapons and aerial bombardment in civilian areas.
As the civil war spiralled into overlapping regional conflicts — government versus militants, Turkiye versus Kurdish fighters, US-backed militias against Daesh group jihadists — Assad retained his grip.
At first he was ostracized by many fellow Arab leaders, leaning instead on Iranian and Russian support, but as it became clear he was not leaving the stage diplomatic ties quietly resumed.

And meanwhile, Russia and Iran had Assad’s back. Lebanon’s pro-Iran Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters, backed by Iranian advisers, to bolster Syrian government forces. Russia carried out air strikes.
But the speed of this week’s militant victories seems to suggest that without his powerful foreign friends, Assad’s Syrian army is a hollow shell.
Russia has such little confidence in its ally that its embassy has acknowledged a “difficult military and political situation.”
Before the recent ceasefire in its conflict with Israel, Hezbollah lost thousands of fighters and weapons and its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah.
It appears to be in no position to help, despite a Hezbollah source saying Saturday it had sent 2,000 fighters into Syria’s Qusayr area “to defend its positions.”
“The Assad government is in its most precarious position since the summer of 2012,” Nick Heras, an analyst at the New Lines Institute, told AFP.
“There is a real risk that the Assad government could lose power in Damascus, either through battles or through a negotiated retreat.
“Ultimately, the Assad government’s ability to survive will depend on the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as useful to their strategies in the region.”
Heras said that Russia, which has a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus, would be loath to withdraw its military personnel and assets from the country, and Iran would be similarly reluctant to abandon Assad.
“If either or both of those allies decide they can advance their interests without Assad, then his days in power are numbered,” Heras said.
The winners would be Assad’s main regional opponents: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkiye’s Erdogan, who both faced periods of intense domestic criticism only to emerge victorious in war.
Turkiye-backed militants are now spearheading the opposition advance on Homs, and Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have effectively neutralized Assad’s most potent backer.

 


Oman announces US-Houthi ceasefire deal

A US F/A-18 Super Hornet attack fighter jet takes off from the US Navy’s Nimitz-class USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.
A US F/A-18 Super Hornet attack fighter jet takes off from the US Navy’s Nimitz-class USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.
Updated 11 min 3 sec ago
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Oman announces US-Houthi ceasefire deal

A US F/A-18 Super Hornet attack fighter jet takes off from the US Navy’s Nimitz-class USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.
  • “They said please don’t bomb us any more and we’re not going to attack your ships,” Trump said
  • There was no immediate response from the Houthis

WASHINGTON: The United States and Yemen’s Houthis have reached a ceasefire agreement, mediator Oman announced Tuesday, saying the deal would ensure “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea where the militia has attacked shipping.
“Following recent discussions and contacts... with the aim of de-escalation, efforts have resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the two sides,” said Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi in a statement posted online, adding that “neither side will target the other... ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping” in the Red Sea.

Earlier on Tuesday, President Donald Trump said that the US will stop bombing the Houthis in Yemen after the Iran-aligned group agreed to stop interrupting important shipping lanes in the Middle East.
In an Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump announced the Houthis have said that they no longer want to fight but did not elaborate on the message.
“They said please don’t bomb us any more and we’re not going to attack your ships,” Trump said.
The Houthis have been firing at Israel and at shipping in the Red Sea since Israel began its military offensive against Hamas in Gaza after the Palestinian militant group’s deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The US president said Washington will take the Houthis’ word that they would not be blowing up ships any longer.
Tensions have been high since the Gaza war began, but have risen further since a Houthi missile landed near Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port on Monday.
The Israeli military carried out an airstrike on Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa on Tuesday, its second attack in two days on the Houthis after a surge in tensions between the group and Israel.


The bodies of a Belgian mother and her son were recovered in southern Jordan after flash flooding

The bodies of a Belgian mother and her son were recovered in southern Jordan after flash flooding
Updated 06 May 2025
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The bodies of a Belgian mother and her son were recovered in southern Jordan after flash flooding

The bodies of a Belgian mother and her son were recovered in southern Jordan after flash flooding
  • The mother and children had been part of a group of 18 tourists
  • Fourteen tourists, all Czechs, were rescued on Sunday

AMMAN: Search and rescue teams recovered the bodies of a Belgian mother and her son on Monday in Jordan, police said a day after the woman and her three children were reported missing in flash flooding. The other two children were found alive.
Sunday’s flooding in southern Jordan also led to the evacuation of hundreds of tourists from the Petra archaeological site, the country’s main tourist attraction.


The mother and children had been part of a group of 18 tourists who had been on an adventure trip in Wadi Al-Nakhil when they were caught up in the flash flood, Ma’an district local governor Hassan Al-Jabour told state media broadcaster Al-Mamlaka TV.
Fourteen tourists, all Czechs, were rescued on Sunday. Rescue crews located two of the children alive late Sunday, Al-Jabour said. The search and rescue operation was suspended at about 2 a.m. because of the complicated weather conditions and terrain. The bodies of the woman and her son were found Monday morning after the search resumed, he said.
Further details about the family and the ages of the children weren’t immediately available.
Jordan often experiences flash flooding as heavy seasonal rains send torrents of water through dry desert valleys. At least three people died in 2021 when floodwaters swept away their car, while more than 30 people in the Dead Sea region and other parts of Jordan were killed in flash flooding in 2018.


UAE president stresses regional peace during meeting with Turkish foreign minister

UAE president stresses regional peace during meeting with Turkish foreign minister
Updated 06 May 2025
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UAE president stresses regional peace during meeting with Turkish foreign minister

UAE president stresses regional peace during meeting with Turkish foreign minister
  • Leaders examined the strategic relationship between Ankara and Abu Dhabi

LONDON: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan at the Qasr Al-Shati palace in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.

They examined the strategic relationship between Ankara and Abu Dhabi, seeking ways to enhance it according to their mutual interests, the Emirates News Agency reported.

Sheikh Mohamed and Fidan discussed regional and international issues, highlighting developments in the Middle East. They stressed the necessity of fostering regional peace and stability in a way that benefits all nations.

The meeting was attended by several senior officials, including Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the deputy chairman of the Presidential Court for Special Affairs; Sheikh Mohamed bin Hamad bin Tahnoun Al-Nahyan, the adviser to the UAE president; Ali bin Hammad Al-Shamsi, the secretary-general of the Supreme Council for National Security; and Khalifa Shaheen Al-Marar, the minister of state.


Emir of Qatar discusses ties in phone call with India PM Modi

Emir of Qatar discusses ties in phone call with India PM Modi
Updated 06 May 2025
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Emir of Qatar discusses ties in phone call with India PM Modi

Emir of Qatar discusses ties in phone call with India PM Modi
  • The leaders shared perspectives on regional and international developments of mutual concern

LONDON: The Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani discussed ties with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a phone call on Tuesday.

The leaders discussed ways to strengthen the relationship between Doha and New Delhi. They also shared perspectives on regional and international developments of mutual concern, according to the Qatar News Agency.

Sheikh Tamim visited India last February to enhance bilateral collaboration between the two countries in areas such as trade, investment, energy, and finance.


UN urges probe into 'disturbing' video of abducted Libyan MP

UN urges probe into 'disturbing' video of abducted Libyan MP
Updated 06 May 2025
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UN urges probe into 'disturbing' video of abducted Libyan MP

UN urges probe into 'disturbing' video of abducted Libyan MP
  • UNSMIL said it was “alarmed” by Ibrahim el-Dirsi’s “enforced disappearance”
  • It described circulating images of his detention as “disturbing“

TRIPOLI: The UN mission in Libya on Tuesday called for an independent investigation into images of an abducted member of the country’s eastern-based parliament that showed signs of torture.
In a statement, UNSMIL said it was “alarmed” by Ibrahim el-Dirsi’s “enforced disappearance” and described circulating images of his detention as “disturbing.”
Dirsi, a member of the Libyan house of representatives, was kidnapped in May 2024 in Benghazi, Libya’s second largest city which he represents.
The North African country has been mired in unrest since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled dictator Muammar Qaddafi.
It remains split between the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, and a rival eastern administration backed by military strongman Khalifa Haftar.
On Monday, Libya’s Al-Ahrar TV aired photos and a video showing Dirsi, apparently in a prison cell, wearing only shorts and chained with a padlock around his neck.
UNSMIL said it had asked UN digital forensic experts to verify the footage’s authenticity.
Tripoli’s GNU described the conditions in the images as “degrading, shocking and inhumane.”
It criticized the “so-called General Command,” referring to Haftar’s forces, after the video appeared to show Dirsi pleading for forgiveness.
The pro-Haftar Al-Masar TV channel quoted lawmakers as saying the images were “fabricated” and “produced using artificial intelligence.”
The eastern-based interior ministry blamed “unidentified criminals affiliated with a gang,” saying the case was under “thorough investigation.”
UNSMIL also condemned “widespread and systemic abuses in detention facilities by law enforcement and security actors in Benghazi, Tripoli, Sabha, and other locations across Libya.”
It said “arbitrary detentions, abductions, torture, enforced disappearances and deaths in custody are serious human rights violations and may constitute international crimes that can be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court.”
“Libyan authorities must ensure these practices immediately cease and that perpetrators are brought to justice,” the statement added.
In 2019, Siham Sergewa, another representative in Benghazi, was abducted from her home shortly after criticizing Haftar on television. She remains missing.