How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

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Updated 31 October 2024
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How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result
  • With its electoral college system, staggered results, and early voting options, understanding how the election functions can be daunting
  • To cut through the jargon and complexities of the democratic process, here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day

LONDON: Early voting has already begun in the US to decide who will form the next administration in what many believe is among the most consequential — and hotly contested — elections in a generation.

Almost every poll published over the past week has placed the two main contenders, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, neck and neck in the race for the White House.

Analysts predict the result could come down to just a handful of votes. The outcome could have huge implications not only for domestic policy, but also for the international order.

With extensive media coverage, election jargon, and an overwhelming volume of information, understanding the process can feel daunting. Here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day.

The polls

Polls are often excellent indicators of general voter sentiment. However, recent US elections have shown they are far from foolproof.

In 2016, almost every major polling firm predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. However, pollsters failed to capture Trump’s unexpected support, leading to a surprise victory that confounded many.

In 2020, polls correctly tipped Joe Biden as the likely winner, but underestimated the actual vote share Trump would receive. In the week before the election, polls gave Biden a seven-point lead, yet Trump managed to close the gap by several points on Election Day.

With most polls indicating a close race on Tuesday, many are wondering whether the pollsters have got it right this time around.

Electoral college

About 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election. If the turnout matches 2020’s record 67 percent, about 162 million ballots will be cast across 50 states.




People cast their ballots during early in-person voting on Oct. 30, 2024, in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP)

A recent Arab News-YouGov poll indicated that Arab Americans are likely to vote in record numbers, with more than 80 percent of eligible voters saying they intend to participate — potentially swinging the outcome in several key states.

When voters cast their ballots, they do not vote directly for their preferred presidential candidate. Rather, they vote for a slate of “electors” who formally choose the president — a process known as the electoral college system.

Due to the quirks of this system, the candidate with the most votes nationally may not necessarily win the presidency. This was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the election.




Former US Vice President Al Gore (left) won the popular vote in 2000 and so did former US first lady and senator Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. But both lost the race because their rivals won more electoral votes. (AFP/File photos)l 

The electoral college creates what could be defined as 51 mini elections — one in each state and another for Washington, D.C. In 48 states and D.C., the candidate with the majority vote takes all the electors from that state.

However, Maine and Nebraska have a different system, allocating electors by district, meaning their electoral votes may be split between candidates.

In total, 538 electors are distributed among the states. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these to win the presidency.

In the unlikely case that no candidate has the required 270 electoral college votes, then a contingent election takes place. This means the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, votes for the president.

How votes are counted

When the polls close on election day, the count begins. In most cases, in-person votes are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots.

Results from smaller or less contested states often come in early, while larger, key battleground states like Pennsylvania or Georgia may take hours — or days — to finalize due to stringent verification steps, including signature checks and ballot preparation for electronic scanning.




Jessica Garofolo (L), administrative services director for Allegheny County, demonstrates how the high-speed ballot scanner for mail-in ballots works during a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

States like Florida, where mail-in ballots are processed in advance, may report results relatively quickly. Other states, particularly those with late processing times for absentee ballots, might not finalize their tallies until days later.

State and local poll officials collect, verify, and certify the popular vote in each jurisdiction, following procedures for accuracy before final certification by governors and designated officials.

In response to unprecedented threats in 2020, many polling stations have now installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass and armed security to ensure safety across the more than 90,000 polling sites nationwide.




This combination image shows smoke pouring out of a ballot box on Oct. 28, 2024, in Vancouver, Washington (left) and a damaged ballot drop box displayed at the Multnomah County Elections Division office on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portland, Oregon. (KGW8 via AP/AP)

Mail-in and early votes

Although election day is held on the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, many Americans vote early. Early voting allows citizens to cast ballots in person, while others opt for mail-in ballots.

This year, early and mail-in voting are once again expected to play a crucial role, with millions of ballots already cast. President Biden voted early on Monday in his home state of Delaware.




US President Joe Biden casts his early-voting ballot in the 2024 general election in New Castle, Delaware, on October 28, 2024. (AFP)

States vary in how they handle mail-in ballots, with some processing them before election day and others waiting until polls close. In closely contested states, the volume of mail-in ballots could be a decisive factor, potentially delaying results.

Voting by mail has grown in popularity. According to ABC News, as of Tuesday, more than 25.6 million Americans have already returned mail ballots, and more than 65 million — including military personnel serving overseas — have requested absentee ballots.

In 2020, a comparable number voted by mail, though the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased reliance on this option.




A voter casts her ballot during the early voting period on October 29, 2024 in the city of Dearborn in  Michigan state. (Getty Images via AFP)

Despite its growing popularity, the mail-in voting system has faced accusations of fraud. During the last election, authorities and the postal service were strained by millions of extra ballots.

At the time, Trump said that mail-in voting was a “disaster” and “a whole big scam,” claiming that the Democrats had exploited the system to “steal” the election. The Democrats claim those allegations contributed to the Capitol Hill attack of Jan. 6, 2021.

This election cycle, some states, including Michigan and Nevada, have passed laws permitting early counting of mail-in ballots, which should lead to faster results. However, most states’ absentee voting policies have seen minimal changes, leaving tensions high.

Authorities are closely monitoring the process. In a sign of just how tense the situation has become, officials announced on Tuesday that they were searching for suspects after hundreds of votes deposited in two ballot drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire.

When will a winner be declared?

Indiana and Kentucky will be the first states to close their polls at 6 pm ET, followed by seven more states an hour later, including the battleground state of Georgia, which in 2020 voted for Biden. North Carolina, another critical swing state which picked Trump last time around, closes at 7:30 pm ET.




Supporters of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cheer during a Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

By around 8 p.m. ET, many states will have reported results, most of which are expected to follow traditional patterns. However, early results in solid Republican states like South Carolina could hint at trends in neighboring battlegrounds like Georgia.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan close, with results trickling in soon after. By midnight ET, most of the nation will have reported, with Hawaii and Alaska closing shortly after, likely providing a clearer picture.

Pennsylvania, which is seen as a bellwether of the overall election outcome, aims to announce its results by early morning on Nov. 6.

The timing of a winner declaration ultimately depends on how close the race is in these key states. If one candidate establishes a clear lead in pivotal swing states early, a winner could be projected by major networks, as Fox News controversially did in 2020, calling Arizona for Biden hours ahead of other broadcasters.




Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

If the race remains tight in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Michigan — all won by Biden last time around — the results may be delayed, possibly into the next day or later.

In 2020, it took four days to project Biden’s win due to a high volume of mail-in ballots. Experts caution that similarly close results this year could lead to a comparable delay.

Possible controversy

As in previous years, the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Delays in ballot counting, especially from mail-in votes, could fuel disputes in states where margins are tight.




Mail-in ballots are secured inside a cage before election day, as officials host a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

Both parties have prepared legal teams to challenge issues surrounding ballot validity, recounts, or other contested results.

Concerns over voter intimidation, misinformation and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud may further stoke tensions, despite the rigorous safeguards put in place.

In its latest assessment, the International Crisis Group noted that while conditions differ from 2020, political divisions remain sharp and risks of unrest remain high, especially if results are contested or take days to finalize.

As the world watches Tuesday’s election closely, there is widespread hope for a fair and peaceful process, marking a fitting conclusion to this tense political season.
 

 


Trump dismisses stock market’s tariff plunge, says ‘China played it wrong’ by hitting back

Trump dismisses stock market’s tariff plunge, says ‘China played it wrong’  by hitting back
Updated 05 April 2025
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Trump dismisses stock market’s tariff plunge, says ‘China played it wrong’ by hitting back

Trump dismisses stock market’s tariff plunge, says ‘China played it wrong’  by hitting back
  • Says critics got it all wrong, even as the Fed warned that the tariffs could lead to “higher inflation and lower growth”
  • “This is a great time to get rich,” he wrote on social media, adding, “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!”

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump goaded China on Friday after the US’s chief economic rival retaliated against his tariffs, and he dismissed falling stock markets over the growing global trade war, touting it as a chance to “get rich.”
“China played it wrong, they panicked — the one thing they cannot afford to do!” Trump posted on Truth Social, writing the message in his trademark all-caps.
For a second day, markets plunged, wiping vast sums off investment and retirement portfolios alike. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned the tariffs were likely to spur “higher inflation and lower growth.”

 

Wall Street went into free fall, following similar collapses in Asia and Europe. The Dow Jones dropped 5.5 percent and the S&P 5.97 percent.
Trump, who unveiled his barrage of import duties against dozens of countries Wednesday, was unrepentant, posting that “my policies will never change.”
“This is a great time to get rich,” he wrote.
The 78-year-old Republican, who was spending a long weekend golfing at his course in Palm Beach, Florida, is banking on the theory that the might of the world’s biggest economy will force foreign companies to manufacture on US soil, rather than continue to import goods.
“ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!” Trump touted in yet another Truth Social post Friday.

China, however, responded by announcing its own new 34 percent tariffs on US imports starting April 10.
Beijing said it would sue the United States at the World Trade Organization and also restrict export of rare earth elements used in high-end medical and electronics technology.
Other big US trading partners held back as they digested the unfolding international standoff and fears of a recession.
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said the EU, which Trump hit with a 20 percent tariff, will act in “a calm, carefully phased, unified way” and allow time for talks.
However, he also warned the bloc “won’t stand idly by.”

EU leaders mull retaliation
France and Germany have said the 27-nation EU could respond by imposing a tax on US tech companies.
Economy Minister Eric Lombard urged French companies to show “patriotism” after President Emmanuel Macron argued it would send the wrong message if they pressed ahead with investments in the United States.
Lombard said the EU’s retaliation would not necessarily involve tit-for-tat tariffs and could use other tools, pointing to data exchange and taxes instead.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called for a “calm-headed” approach after Trump slapped 24 percent tariffs on Japanese-made goods.
Trump said he’d had a “very productive” call with Vietnam’s top leader after the southeast Asian manufacturing hub was hit with extraordinary 46 percent US duties.
Separate US tariffs of 25 percent on all foreign-made cars went into effect this week, and Canada swiftly responded with a similar levy on US imports.
Stellantis — the owner of Jeep, Chrysler and Fiat — paused production at some Canadian and Mexican assembly plants.
But Japanese carmaker Nissan said on Friday it would revise plans to reduce production in the United States. And Sweden’s Volvo, owned by China’s Geely, said it would increase its US production.

“Messing around with people’s lives”
Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar lashed out at the tariffs, saying they would hurt regular Americans.
Trump is “messing around with people’s lives... while he’s out golfing!” she said.

 

And there was rare criticism from the right too, with Trump loyalist Republican Senator Ted Cruz worrying that the tariffs could “hurt jobs and hurt America.”
The Fed chairman’s speech also highlighted concerns that the tariff shockwaves will reach deep into the US economy.
But minutes before Powell suggested the Fed will continue to hold off from cutting its benchmark lending rate, Trump pressured him to do so.
“CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!” he posted — once again defying the longstanding custom in which the White House respects the central bank’s independence.
In a more concrete sign of how tariffs are impacting trade, Nintendo announced it was delaying preorders of its hotly anticipated Switch 2 gaming console while it assesses “evolving” conditions.
 


Pro-Palestinian protesters interrupt Microsoft’s 50th anniversary party over Israel contract

Pro-Palestinian protesters interrupt Microsoft’s 50th anniversary party over Israel contract
Updated 05 April 2025
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Pro-Palestinian protesters interrupt Microsoft’s 50th anniversary party over Israel contract

Pro-Palestinian protesters interrupt Microsoft’s 50th anniversary party over Israel contract
  • An investigation by The Associated Press revealed earlier this year that AI models from Microsoft and OpenAI had been used as part of an Israeli military program to select bombing targets during the recent wars in Gaza and Lebanon

WASHINGTON: A pro-Palestinian protest by Microsoft employees interrupted the company’s 50th anniversary celebration Friday, the latest backlash over the tech industry’s work to supply artificial intelligence technology to the Israeli military.
The protest happened as Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman was presenting product updates and a long-term vision for the company’s AI assistant product, Copilot, to an audience that included Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and former CEO Steve Ballmer.
“Mustafa, shame on you,” shouted Microsoft employee Ibtihal Aboussad as she walked toward the stage and Suleyman paused his speech. “You claim that you care about using AI for good but Microsoft sells AI weapons to the Israeli military. Fifty-thousand people have died and Microsoft powers this genocide in our region.”

 pro-Palestinian demonstrator holds a kufiyyeh as they interrupt Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman during a presentation of the company's AI assistant, Copilot, ahead of a 50th Anniversary presentation at Microsoft headquarters, Friday, April 4, 2025, in Redmond, Wash. (AP)

“Thank you for your protest, I hear you,” Suleyman said. Aboussad continued, shouting that he and “all of Microsoft” had blood on their hands. She also threw onto the stage a keffiyeh scarf, which has become a symbol of support for Palestinian people, before being escorted out of the event.
A second protester, Microsoft employee Vaniya Agrawal, interrupted another part of the celebration during which Gates, Ballmer and current CEO Satya Nadella were on stage — the first public gathering since 2014 of the three men who have been Microsoft’s CEO.
An investigation by The Associated Press revealed earlier this year that AI models from Microsoft and OpenAI had been used as part of an Israeli military program to select bombing targets during the recent wars in Gaza and Lebanon. The story also contained details of an errant Israeli airstrike in 2023 that struck a vehicle carrying members of a Lebanese family, killing three young girls and their grandmother.
In February, five Microsoft employees were ejected from a meeting with CEO Satya Nadella for protesting the contracts. While the February event was an internal meeting, Friday’s protest was far more public — a livestreamed showcase of the company’s past and future.
“We provide many avenues for all voices to be heard,” said a statement from the company Friday. “Importantly, we ask that this be done in a way that does not cause a business disruption. If that happens, we ask participants to relocate. We are committed to ensuring our business practices uphold the highest standards.”
Microsoft declined to say whether it would take further action.

 


What is the International Criminal Court and how can a member country like Hungary leave?

What is the International Criminal Court and how can a member country like Hungary leave?
Updated 05 April 2025
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What is the International Criminal Court and how can a member country like Hungary leave?

What is the International Criminal Court and how can a member country like Hungary leave?
  • Liz Evenson, international justice director at Human Rights Watch: We expect other ICC members and particularly EU member states who are united in their commitment to the court to press Hungary hard on meeting its clear, legal obligations on arrest”

THE HAGUE, Netherlands: After giving a red carpet welcome this week to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, Hungary announced it would quit the court.
Should Hungary follow through with its withdrawal from the world’s only permanent global court for war crimes and genocide, it will become only the third country in the institution’s history of more than 20 years to do so. The process will take more than a year.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who gave the Israeli leader a welcome with full military honors on Thursday in defiance of the ICC arrest warrant, signed the Rome Statute, which established the court, during his first term in office.
What is the International Criminal Court?
The ICC was established in The Hague in 2002 as the court of last resort to prosecute individuals responsible for the world’s most heinous atrocities: war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression. It takes on cases when nations are unable or unwilling to prosecute crimes on their territory.
Hungary signed the Rome Statute in 1999 and ratified the treaty on Nov. 30, 2001.
The court’s newest member, Ukraine, formally joined in January, bringing the number of member states to 125. The United States, Russia, China and Israel are among nations that are not members.
Judges at the court have issued 60 arrest warrants and convicted 11 people. Last month, the court arrested former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on murder charges linked to the deadly “war on drugs” that he oversaw while in office.
What is the process for leaving the court?
The Rome Statute lays out the steps a member state needs to take if they want to withdraw from the court. The state party must inform the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the withdrawal takes effect one year after the receipt of the notification.
Announcing it will leave, however, doesn’t free Hungary from its duties under the treaty.
“There is a provision which says that your obligation to cooperate continues for the cases that were ongoing when you were still a party,” Göran Sluiter, professor of international criminal law at the University of Amsterdam, told The Associated Press. “So they still have an ongoing obligation to arrest Netanyahu,” he said.
Zsolt Semjén, Hungary’s deputy prime minister, submitted a bill to parliament to approve the withdrawal, which is expected to pass.
Just two other countries have left the court. The East African nation of Burundi left in 2017 and, in 2019, then-President Duterte withdrew the Philippines after judges allowed the investigation into his drug crackdown that killed thousands to continue.
If Hungary leaves, it will become the only country in the European Union that is not a member of the court.
Why is Netanyahu wanted by the court?
A three-judge panel issued arrest warrants in November for Netanyahu, his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas’ military chief, Mohammed Deif, accusing them of crimes against humanity in connection with the 13-month war in Gaza.
The warrants said there was reason to believe Netanyahu and Gallant have used “starvation as a method of warfare” by restricting humanitarian aid and intentionally targeted civilians in Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza, charges Israeli officials deny.
The warrant marked the first time a sitting leader of a major Western ally has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the global court of justice and has sparked major pushback from supporters of Israel, including the US
The ICC criticized Hungary’s decision to defy its warrant for Netanyahu, with the court’s spokesperson, Fadi El Abdallah, saying on Thursday that the court “recalls that Hungary remains under a duty to cooperate with the ICC.”
Human rights groups also have condemned the move.
“Hungary still has the opportunity to arrest Netanyahu — as unlikely as that seems, there’s still time. We expect other ICC members and particularly EU member states who are united in their commitment to the court to press Hungary hard on meeting its clear, legal obligations on arrest,” Liz Evenson, international justice director at Human Rights Watch, told the AP.
Last year, Mongolia refused to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit. Judges ruled Mongolia had failed to comply with its obligations and referred the matter to the court’s oversight board, the Assembly of States Parties.
 

 


IRS starts laying off 20,000 workers, eliminates civil rights office

IRS starts laying off 20,000 workers, eliminates civil rights office
Updated 05 April 2025
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IRS starts laying off 20,000 workers, eliminates civil rights office

IRS starts laying off 20,000 workers, eliminates civil rights office
  • They come amid the busiest time of the year for the IRS

The US Internal Revenue Service began making sweeping cuts to its workforce on Friday, the agency’s leadership said in an email to staff on Friday, and among the first to go will be employees of its civil rights office.
Reuters previously reported that more than 20,000 staff would be cut, which a source familiar with Friday’s announcement confirmed, saying 20 percent-25 percent of the tax-collecting agency’s workforce would be targeted.
The start of the layoffs and the civil rights office’s elimination were first reported by the Washington Post.
The cuts are part of a major overhaul of the federal workforce that has already cost more than 200,000 workers their jobs. President Donald Trump has tasked billionaire Elon Musk with leading the reshaping and downsizing of the government.
“The IRS has begun implementing a Reduction in Force (RIF) that will result in staffing cuts across multiple offices and job categories,” an internal human resources email sent to all staff said on Friday.
The email said 75 percent of the agency’s civil rights office, previously called the office of diversity, equity and inclusion, will be cut and its remaining employees will move under a separate office.
Trump has passed executive orders aimed at dismantling DEI initiatives that he has labeled discriminatory. Civil rights groups have condemned the actions, saying DEI measures help in addressing historical and generational inequity.
The email said the mass layoffs would take place in phases.
They come amid the busiest time of the year for the IRS, with the filing deadline for most individual tax returns falling on April 15. 


A week after catastrophic earthquake, focus turns to humanitarian crisis

A week after catastrophic earthquake, focus turns to humanitarian crisis
Updated 04 April 2025
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A week after catastrophic earthquake, focus turns to humanitarian crisis

A week after catastrophic earthquake, focus turns to humanitarian crisis
  • Myanmar’s military and several key armed resistance groups have all declared ceasefires in the wake of the earthquake to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid

BANGKOK: Search teams in Myanmar recovered more bodies from the ruins of buildings on Friday, a week after a massive earthquake killed more than 3,100 people, as the focus turns toward the urgent humanitarian needs in a country already devastated by a continuing civil war.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher, who is also the emergency relief coordinator, will visit the area on Friday in an effort to spur action following the March 28 quake. Ahead of the visit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed to the international community to immediately step up funding for quake victims “to match the scale of this crisis,” and he urged unimpeded access to reach those in need.
“The earthquake has supercharged the suffering with the monsoon season just around the corner,” he said.

FASTFACT

Myanmar’s military and several key armed resistance groups have all declared ceasefires in the wake of the earthquake to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid.

Myanmar’s military and several key armed resistance groups have all declared ceasefires in the wake of the earthquake to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid.
But the UN’s Human Rights Office on Friday accused the military of continuing attacks, claiming there were more than 60 attacks after the earthquake, including 16 since the military announced a temporary ceasefire on Wednesday.
“I urge a halt to all military operations, and for the focus to be on assisting those impacted by the quake, as well as ensuring unhindered access to humanitarian organizations that are ready to support,” said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk. “I hope this terrible tragedy can be a turning point for the country toward an inclusive political solution.”
Announcing its ceasefire, the military also said it would still take “necessary” measures against resistance groups, if they use the ceasefire to regroup, train or launch attacks, and the groups have said they reserved the right to defend themselves.
Myanmar’s military seized power in 2021 from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, sparking what has turned into a civil war.
The quake worsened an already dire humanitarian crisis, with more than 3 million people displaced from their homes and nearly 20 million in need even before it hit, according to the United Nations.
Myanmar authorities said Thursday that 3,145 people had been killed in the earthquake, with another 4,589 people injured and 221 missing, and did not immediately update the figures on Friday.
Britain, which had already given $13 million to purchase emergency items like food, water and shelter, pledged an additional $6.5 million in funds to match an appeal from Myanmar’s Disasters Emergency Committee, according to the UK Embassy in Yangon.
The World Food Program said so far it has reached 24,000 survivors, but was scaling up its efforts to assist 850,000 with food and cash assistance for one month.
Many international search and rescue teams are now on the scene, and eight medical crews from China, Thailand, Japan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Russia were operating in Naypyitaw, according to Myanmar’s military-run government. Another five teams from India, Russia, Laos and Nepal and Singapore were helping in the Mandalay region, while teams from Russia, Malaysia and the ASEAN bloc of nations were assisting in the Sagaing region.
The Trump administration has pledged $2 million in emergency aid and sent a three-person team to assess how best to respond given drastic cuts to US foreign assistance.