S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

The Kingdom’s non-oil sector continues to exhibit strong potential, supporting Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts. 
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Updated 28 November 2024
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S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

RIYADH: S&P Global has projected steady growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy, forecasting a 0.8 percent gross domestic product increase in 2024 and a robust 4.7 percent in 2025. 

The agency’s adjustments to its earlier forecasts reflect a recalibration of oil production assumptions, now expected at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2025, down from 9.7 million.

The Kingdom’s non-oil sector continues to exhibit strong potential, supporting Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts. 

S&P also anticipated low and stable inflation in the Kingdom, forecasting rates of 1.8 percent in 2024 and 1.7 percent in 2025, highlighting the country’s success in maintaining price stability amid global economic volatility. 

The agency reduced its real GDP growth forecasts for emerging markets by 10 basis points for both 2025 and 2026, now projecting growth rates of 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.  

The Kingdom saw the largest downward revision for 2025, with a reduction of 60 bps, followed by Hungary and Mexico. 

“In Saudi Arabia, our revision reflects lower oil production assumptions than previously anticipated,” S&P stated. 

The report cited recent OPEC+ announcements and trends in global oil markets as factors behind the adjusted projections for Saudi oil output. 

S&P also revised its forecasts for other regions. South Africa’s GDP growth projections were raised to 1 percent in 2024 and 1.6 percent in 2025, driven by strong retail sales and a new pension scheme boosting household consumption. While infrastructure challenges remain, ongoing reforms could enhance long-term growth prospects. 

In Southeast Asia, S&P noted heightened uncertainty due to reliance on trade and slowing growth in China. 

However, domestic demand remains resilient, supported by sectors like IT, finance, and a recovering tourism industry. Manufacturing, particularly electronics, continues to perform well, and inflation is under control, enabling some central banks to ease monetary policy. 

S&P upgraded growth forecasts for Malaysia and Vietnam, citing strong electronics supply chains and resilient domestic demand. Vietnam also benefits from recovering financial and real estate sectors. India’s growth remains robust but is expected to moderate after April 2025 due to slowing consumer momentum and challenges in the rural economy. 

The Philippines is projected to see slightly slower growth due to softer consumption, though infrastructure investment will provide medium-term support. Indonesia and Thailand maintain stable outlooks, with emerging sectors like electric vehicles and fiscal stimulus driving development. 

S&P also highlighted downside risks to global growth, particularly from uncertainties in US trade policy under President-elect Trump.  

While the agency assumed a modest tariff increase between the US and China, it warned that more aggressive measures could significantly disrupt global trade and demand. 

Tariffs targeting additional countries could amplify these effects, increasing risk premia and tightening financial conditions for emerging markets, especially those with weaker fundamentals. 

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has escalated with ballistic missile launches.

According to S&P, this uncertainty could heighten risk aversion toward emerging market assets and impact commodity prices.


Saudi Arabia, Kuwait forge AI partnership to advance governance, innovation


Updated 08 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia, Kuwait forge AI partnership to advance governance, innovation


JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have taken a significant step toward strengthening regional collaboration on artificial intelligence governance and innovation by forming a strategic partnership focused on advancing standards, research, and responsible development in the Artificial Intelligence of Things.

The Kingdom’s Artificial Intelligence Governance Association, which operates under the technical supervision of the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Kuwait’s Association of Artificial Intelligence of Things.

The agreement is aimed at enhancing cooperation on AI governance standards, promoting knowledge exchange, supporting scientific research, and driving innovation in the emerging AIoT sector.

A report by Boston Consulting Group published in April highlighted the Gulf region’s strategic prioritization of AI, noting that all GCC nations have launched national strategies to foster economic diversification and digital transformation.

The memorandum was signed by AIGA Chairwoman Dhabia bint Ahmed Al-Buainain and Sheikh Mohammed bin Ahmed Al-Sabah.

In a post on X, Al-Buainain said: “The agreement stems from a shared vision to enhance regional cooperation in artificial intelligence and its governance, and to build strategic partnerships that advance responsible and innovative AI policies and applications across the Gulf states.”

According to the BCG report, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are leading in infrastructure development and adoption, while Oman and Kuwait are working to expand their capabilities through global partnerships. However, the study pointed out that despite significant state-led investments, challenges remain in private sector funding, research output, and talent development, which hinder the region's ability to fully harness AI’s potential.

As reported by the Saudi Press Agency, the agreement marks AIGA’s first international memorandum of understanding, underscoring its intention to play a broader regional role in the responsible governance of advanced technologies.

The partnership highlights both associations’ commitment to supporting regional initiatives, strengthening governance frameworks, and fostering the exchange of expertise. It also aligns with national and regional objectives to develop knowledge-based economies fueled by emerging technologies.

In a statement, AIGA described the memorandum as a strategic move to deepen regional cooperation in AI governance. The signing ceremony was attended by senior officials from both organizations, along with representatives from SDAIA and AIGA.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Ahmed Al-Sabah, chairman of AAIOT, welcomed the agreement and described it as a “promising opportunity to exchange experiences and develop joint projects that serve the interests of our communities.”

He also emphasized that the deal supports efforts in both countries to advance AI capabilities according to the highest ethical and organizational standards.

AIGA underscored the importance of the memorandum, stating: “This agreement is particularly significant as it is the first international memorandum of understanding signed by the Artificial Intelligence Governance Association outside the Kingdom, representing a step toward expanding cooperation in the field of governance of responsible advanced technologies.”

The association added that the partnership aims to create new avenues for collaboration in setting AI governance standards, promoting research, and encouraging innovation in AIoT — all contributing to a more sustainable and ethically driven technological future.


Qatar’s international reserves rise 3.5% in June, topping $70bn


Updated 08 July 2025
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Qatar’s international reserves rise 3.5% in June, topping $70bn


  • Official reserve assets rose to 199.65 billion riyals
  • Gold holdings rose to 44.5 billion riyals

RIYADH: Qatar’s international reserves and foreign currency liquidity climbed 3.51 percent year on year in June to reach 258.88 billion Qatari riyals ($70.9 billion), according to data released by the Qatar Central Bank.

The reserves also edged up 0.29 percent from May, adding 744 million riyals during the month. The increase reflects the resilience of Qatar’s monetary framework amid global economic uncertainty.

Official reserve assets — which make up the core of the central bank’s holdings — rose to 199.65 billion riyals in June, marking a 4.46 percent annual increase and a 0.47 percent rise from the previous month.

The uptick was driven by higher gold reserves, stronger balances with foreign banks, and an improved reserve position with the International Monetary Fund.

Gold holdings rose to 44.5 billion riyals in June, slightly up from 44.3 billion in May. Special Drawing Rights deposits inched up to 5.26 billion riyals, while Qatar’s IMF reserve position grew by 81 million to 5.25 billion riyals.

Foreign bank balances jumped by 1.33 billion riyals to 17.75 billion, although the central bank’s holdings of foreign bonds and treasury bills dipped to 132.14 billion riyals, down 763 million from the month before.

In the wider Gulf region, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported relatively stable reserve positions.

The Saudi Central Bank posted official reserves of SR1.716 trillion ($457.7 billion) in June, slightly down from SR1.721 trillion in May but up from SR1.647 trillion in April. The total includes SR1.620 trillion in foreign currency reserves and SR81.33 billion in SDRs. The IMF reserve position stood at SR13.28 billion, while gold holdings remained unchanged at SR1.62 billion.

Kuwait’s reserves totaled 14.106 billion dinars ($46 billion) in May, compared to 14.633 billion dinars in April, according to the Central Bank of Kuwait. Foreign currency and deposits abroad accounted for 12.49 billion dinars, with SDR holdings at 1.33 billion. Gold reserves remained steady at 31.7 million dinars.

Qatar’s total international reserves comprise official reserve assets — including foreign bonds, deposits, gold, SDRs, and IMF balances — as well as other liquid foreign currency holdings.


IsDB approves $277m to boost jobs, health care, green transport in member states

Updated 08 July 2025
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IsDB approves $277m to boost jobs, health care, green transport in member states

  • Financing approved for projects in Mauritania, Cote d’Ivoire, and The Gambia
  • Aim to generate tangible impact and advance UN SDGs

JEDDAH: Job creation, better health care, and greener transportation are set to advance in several member countries as the Islamic Development Bank approved $277 million in financing.

In its 361st meeting, chaired by President Mohammed bin Sulaiman Al-Jasser, the IsDB approved financing for projects in Mauritania, Cote d’Ivoire, and The Gambia, it said in a statement on July 7.

As a leading multilateral development institution in the Islamic world, the IsDB focuses on fostering inclusive economic growth, strengthening human capital, and enhancing infrastructure across its 57 member countries. Through long-term partnerships and targeted investments in key sectors, the bank supports sustainable development and improves the quality of life throughout the Islamic nation.

The Jeddah-headquartered global funding organization added that this round of development financing highlights its firm commitment to transformative projects that generate tangible impact and advance the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

“The approved financing package spans vital sectors, namely health care, education, and transportation and is focused on addressing urgent development challenges, from improving urban mobility to strengthening public health systems and building human capital,” the statement said.

In Mauritania, the IsDB allocated €26.18 million ($30.7 million) to expand the National Cardiology Center in Nouakchott. The initiative aims to enhance the country’s capacity to prevent and treat cardiovascular diseases, a leading cause of premature death, and improve access to specialized, life-saving care for thousands of people, the statement added.

In Cote d’Ivoire, a €200 million financing package will support the Abidjan Sustainable and Integrated Urban Mobility Project, a major initiative to upgrade the city’s public transportation system.

The undertaking seeks to enhance access to financial and social opportunities while boosting the efficiency of transit along the Yopougon-Bingerville corridor and its feeder lines in Abidjan, the country’s economic capital and largest city.

It also aims to reduce congestion, encourage greener transportation, and facilitate easier travel for residents — especially those in underserved areas — to jobs, schools, and essential services.

In The Gambia, meanwhile, the bank is investing $32.20 million to help establish the School of Medicine and Allied Health Sciences at the University of The Gambia.

“This initiative will help address the country’s critical shortage of health care professionals by building a pipeline of locally trained doctors, nurses, and public health experts, ultimately improving the quality and resilience of the national health system,” the statement said.

In May, the IsDB approved over $1.32 billion in funding for key projects during its 360th board meeting. The funding included a $632 million flood protection dams project in Oman aimed at reducing climate-related risks, a €212 million road rehabilitation initiative in Cameroon to enhance regional connectivity, and major infrastructure improvements in Burkina Faso.

Spanning sectors such as health, infrastructure, food security, vocational training and water access, the investments also reflected the bank’s comprehensive approach to promoting sustainable development in its member states.


Saudi trading in US stocks hits record $44bn, almost tripling year on year

Updated 08 July 2025
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Saudi trading in US stocks hits record $44bn, almost tripling year on year

RIYADH: Saudi investors posted record-breaking trading activity on US stock markets during the first quarter of 2025, reaching SR164.3 billion ($43.8 billion) — an annual rise of 164 percent.

According to newly released data from the Kingdom’s Capital Market Authority, the US now accounts for the overwhelming majority of Saudi trading activity in foreign stock markets.

Out of SR166.2 billion in total foreign market trades during the first three months of the year, the North American country represented nearly 99 percent. 

Gulf Cooperation Council markets saw just SR953 million in trades according to the CMA report, while Asian and European markets attracted SR81 million and SR254 million, respectively. Arab markets remained marginal at SR13 million, and other international markets accounted for SR556 million. 

Robust performance by US growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector, have helped make American markets attractive after a somewhat sluggish 2022 and 2023. 

By the first quarter, a group of US tech giants, dubbed the “Magnificent 7,” had delivered impressive earnings and upbeat revenue forecasts, fueling a rally in their share prices according to a May post by WallStreet Horizon. 

This coincided with a perception that the Federal Reserve was nearing the end of its tightening cycle; with the Fed keeping its benchmark rate unchanged around 4.25 percent  to 4.5 percent during the quarter, and investors anticipated potential rate cuts later in 2025. 

Clarity in monetary policy has removed some uncertainty and supported appetite for equities, encouraging Saudi market participants to increase their exposure to US stocks. 

The investor base in the Kingdom has also matured in its understanding of global markets, aided by better technology, research, and regulatory support. This familiarity has reduced barriers to entry for trading abroad. 

Trading activity on the local Saudi market reached SR730.6 billion during the same period, meaning that US equities alone represented nearly 18 percent of all Saudi institutional and individual equity trading across geographies. 

The CMA’s data revealed that Saudi engagement in US equities has more than doubled from its earlier peak of SR85.9 billion in the same period of 2022 and nearly tripled compared to the post-pandemic break observed in the first quarters of 2023 and 2024. 

Saudi Exchange’s recent introduction of Saudi Depositary Receipts, instruments that allow domestic investors to trade foreign shares in riyals, is expected to further strengthen the structural link between local and international capital markets. 

The shift underscores the evolving profile of the Kingdom’s investor base, particularly as more high-net-worth individuals, mutual funds, and institutional asset managers seek diversification outside the GCC. 

While the local market still dominates in absolute volume, the steady increase in foreign exposure, especially to the US, highlights Saudi Arabia’s accelerating financial globalization. 


Oil Updates — prices ease as traders assess US tariffs, OPEC+ output hike

Updated 08 July 2025
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Oil Updates — prices ease as traders assess US tariffs, OPEC+ output hike

  • OPEC+ to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day for August
  • Trump’s tariffs create uncertainty about global economy

SINGAPORE: Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after rising almost 2 percent in the previous session as investors assessed new developments on US tariffs and a higher-than-expected OPEC+ output hike for August.

Brent crude futures dipped 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $69.36 a barrel by 8:30 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 27 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $67.66 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump on Monday began telling trade partners, which included major suppliers South Korea and Japan as well as smaller US exporters like Serbia, Thailand and Tunisia, that sharply higher US tariffs will start Aug. 1, though he later said that deadline was not 100 percent firm.

Trump’s tariffs have prompted uncertainty across the market and concerns they could have a negative effect on the global economy and, consequently, on oil demand.

However, there are some signs current demand remains strong, particularly in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, which has supported prices.

A record 72.2 million Americans were projected to travel more than 50 miles (80 km) for Fourth of July vacations, data from travel group AAA showed last week.

Investors were bullish heading into the holiday period with data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Monday showing money managers raised their net-long futures and options positions in crude oil contracts in the week up to July 1.

“Prompt demand remains healthy on the back of seasonal factors. The question remains if forward demand will maintain to absorb the larger-than-expected supply from OPEC+,” said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research.

Other signs of higher demand were seen in India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, with government data reporting fuel consumption in June was 1.9 percent higher than a year ago.

On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding the 411,000-bpd hikes they made for the prior three months.

The decision removes nearly all of the 2.2 million-bpd of voluntary cuts the group enacted. They are set to approve an increase of about 550,000 bpd for September when it meets on Aug. 3, according to five sources familiar with the matter, which would unwind all of the cuts.

However, actual output increases have been smaller than the announced levels so far and most of the supply has been from Saudi Arabia, analysts said.