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BEIRUT: The UN refugee agency’s representative in Lebanon said Thursday he hopes that at least 200,000 Syrian refugees return from Lebanon by the end of the year under a new government-backed return plan.

Before former President Bashar Assad was ousted in a lightning insurgent offensive in December, only about 1 percent of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon said they were planning to return, UNHCR’s outgoing Lebanon Representative Ivo Freijsen said.

“That has now changed ... 24 percent of the Syrian refugee community in Lebanon is now thinking or planning about going back during the next 12 months. So that’s a very positive shift,” Freijsen told The Associated Press in an interview.

Syria’s uprising-turned-conflict displaced half of the country’s prewar population of 23 million over the last 14 years. Lebanon hosted an estimated 1.5 million refugees, making up roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s six million people at one point. Officials estimate that at least 1 million refugees are still in the country today.

Scaling up a new return plan

The UNHCR had said for years that Syria was not yet safe for return, despite mounting pressure from Lebanese authorities since the country plunged into an economic crisis in 2019.

That policy has changed since the Assad dynasty’s decades-long autocratic rule came to an end. Many of the refugees in Lebanon had fled because they were political opponents of Assad or to avoid forced conscription into his army.

Freijsen said that the agency was able to confirm at least 120,000 Syrian refugees leaving Lebanon since Assad’s fall without any help from UN groups or charities.

“But we now have this scheme available, and we hope to be able to scale up,” Freijsen said. “Collectively, we have now made it as easy as possible for Syrians to go back to Syria, to their home country.”

Under the plan, the UNHCR and International Organization for Migration will provide $100 for each family member and transportation by bus, while the Lebanese authorities would waive any outstanding fees or fines that they owe for violating residency requirements.

Once they cross the border, the UN agencies will help the returning refugees secure missing documents, offer legal and mental health support, and some aid.

At least 17,000 Syrians have signed up so far, with most opting to take their own vehicles. Freijsen observed a small test run on Tuesday of 72 Syrians leaving by bus through Lebanon’s Masnaa border crossing with Syria. He said about a quarter of surveyed Syrian refugees want to return or plan to do so in the next year, a surge from almost none less than a year ago.

“We have a most ambitious target, objective and hope, of 400,000 (returns) by the end of this year. Again that’s most optimistic,” he said. “But if we get a final figure by the year between 200,000 and 400,000, that would be very positive.”

Syria’s economy still far from recovered

The UN estimates it will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild Syria and make its economy viable again, when 90 percent of its population lives in poverty. A new administration led by interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa has restored diplomatic ties with Arab Gulf nations and Western nations. US President Donald Trump recently announced that Washington would lift sanctions from Syria, which swiftly paved the way for large business deals with Turkiye, Qatar, Saudi Arabia.

But Syria will need time for its economy to bounce back, and its new authorities are still struggling with exerting their authority across the entire country as they try to reach a settlement with various groups. UN agencies have also faced massive budget cuts which have scaled down the size of their teams and the amount of aid they can give. All that could hamper the sustainability of refugees returning home, Freijsen warned.

“People are prepared to go back with lots of issues and struggle and issues to overcome, provided that they can also earn a living. And that is still difficult,” said Freijsen.