How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization

Analysis How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization
(L-R) Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan participate in the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, D.C., on September 15, 2020. (AFP)
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Updated 26 September 2024
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How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization

How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization
  • The 2020 accords normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, marking a major step in the peace process
  • The Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack and the resulting war in Gaza paused the accords’ momentum, complicating future agreements

LONDON: It is exactly four years since Donald Trump stood on the South Lawn of the White House, flanked by a beaming Benjamin Netanyahu and the foreign ministers of Bahrain and the UAE, each holding a copy of the Abraham Accords Declaration.

The signing of the agreements on Sept. 15, 2020, a process driven by the Trump administration, appeared to be the most significant development in the Arab-Israeli peace process for years.




In the historic Abraham Accords, Bahrain and the UAE recognized Israel’s sovereignty and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations. (AFP/File)

Both Bahrain and the UAE recognized Israel’s sovereignty and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations — the only Arab states to have done so since Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

In so doing, as the one-page declaration signed by all four parties affirmed, they recognized “the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East … based on mutual understanding and coexistence,” and vowed to “seek to end radicalization and conflict and to provide all children a better future.”

A number of “firsts” followed. For the first time, it became possible to call direct to Israel from the UAE, and Emirati ships and planes began to dock and land in Israeli ports and airports. Various trade and business deals were made.




The Abraham Accords ushered in an era of understanding that saw the opening of Abu Dhabi’s Abrahamic Family House, which has been featured in TIME Magazine's annual list of the World’s Greatest Places. (WAM photo)

The region’s major player was missing from the White House photo op that day in 2020, but speculation that Saudi Arabia would soon follow suit and normalize relations with Israel was rife.

Three years later, in a groundbreaking and wide-ranging interview with Fox News, broadcast on Sept. 20, 2023, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave the biggest hint yet that such a historic breakthrough might be afoot.




Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman being interviewed by Bret Baier of Fox News in September 2023. (AN Archives)

“Every day we get closer,” the Saudi crown prince told Bret Baier of Fox News, adding Saudi Arabia could work with Israel, although he added that any such agreement, which would be “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War,” would depend on positive outcomes for the Palestinians.

“If we have a breakthrough of reaching a deal that give the Palestinians their needs and make the region calm, we’re going to work with whoever is there,” he said.

Just over two weeks later, on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas and its allies attacked Israel. All bets were off, and the Abraham Accords seemed doomed to go the way of every previous initiative in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the Madrid Conference of 1991.




People pay tribute near the coffins of some of the people killed in the October 7 deadly attack by Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip, during a funeral in Kfar Harif in southern Israel, on Oct. 25, 2023. (AFP)

But, say some commentators, despite the death and destruction of the past year, it would be wrong to write off the accords completely, and whether or not the process can be resuscitated could depend on which of the two main candidates in the coming US presidential election is handed the keys to the White House by the American electorate on Nov. 5.

“I’m not sure I would describe the accords as being on life support,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs).

“They are actually weathering this very difficult storm of the Gaza war. That is certainly putting the leadership and the decision-making in the UAE and Bahrain under a microscope, and of course that poses difficult domestic dynamics for these leaders to navigate.

“But at the same time, they remain committed to the Abraham Accords and haven’t shown any willingness to walk back from them or to break diplomatic ties. They in fact are arguing that by having diplomatic ties with Israel, they have a better avenue to support Palestinians and work behind the scenes with the Israelis.”




​This picture taken on March 28, 2024 from Israel's southern border with the Gaza Strip shows buildings which have been destroyed by Israeli strikes, amid the ongoing battles between Israeli forces and Hamas militants since the October 7 attack on southern Israel. (AFP)

As for the Israelis, “normalization with Saudi Arabia is not on the cards for now, partly because obviously the Israeli leadership has different priorities right now, and after Oct. 7, the price of normalization became higher.

“And I think the Israeli leadership is calculating that if they wait this out — and perhaps over-anticipating that the Saudis will still be there, which could be a miscalculation — the price that they have to pay for normalization will go down again.

“I think that they’re assuming that the conditions in the region might change, or perhaps if the outcome of the US election leads to a Trump victory, that might alter what they need to do, what commitments they need to make toward the Palestinians that would satisfy the Saudis.”

INNUMBERS

18% Decline in Israel’s overall trade with outside world since eruption of Gaza war in October 2023.

4% Decline in trade between Israel and 7 Arab countries that have normalized ties with it during the same period.

14% Drop in Israel-UAE trade in the last quarter of 2023 following the conflict.

(Source: Abraham Accords Peace Institute)

But for Brian Katulis, senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, “it’s a coin toss” whether a Trump or Kamala Harris administration would be most likely to reinvigorate the Abraham Accords.

“As we saw in the candidates’ debate on Tuesday evening, these issues don’t really matter to either of the leaders or the political discourse in America right now,” he said.

“These questions, of the Abraham Accords, of Israel-Palestine or of Iran, don’t really drive the political and policy debate in a major way compared to US domestic issues — immigration, abortion, who we are as a country, inflation.

“When it comes to foreign policy issues, China is much more relevant as a political question.”




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris participate in a debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (AFP)

Although, as the father of the Abraham Accords, Trump might be assumed to be keen to re-engage with an initiative he once saw as a foundation stone of his legacy — in January, a Republican lawmaker nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize — “he’s just so erratic as a leader, and I don’t know that he’ll be focused on it,” Katulis said.

“Harris may actually put more time and thought into it. In the debate, she was the only candidate who talked about a two-state solution, and that’s music to the ears of anyone in places like Saudi Arabia, which have been calling for a state of Palestine forever.”

But Saudi Arabia is unlikely to shift far from the position it took in 2002, when it was the author of the Arab Peace Initiative, which was adopted by the Council of Arab States.

This offered Israel peace and normalization of relations with all 22 Arab states, in exchange for “full Israeli withdrawal from all the Arab territories occupied since June 1967, in implementation of Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, reaffirmed by the Madrid Conference of 1991 and the land-for-peace principle, and Israel’s acceptance of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Merissa Khurma, program director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, said: “And of course, the Abraham Accords agreements completely flipped that formula because they offered normalization first.




Israel's revenge attacks against Palestinians in Gaza has not spared houses of worship, making efforts at restoring peace more difficult. (AFP)

“The premise they presented was that it was through these channels of communication that have now been established that we can try to address the thorny issues in the Palestinian-Israeli arena.

“But we all know that the reality on the ground was very different, that settlements and outposts have expanded and with the emergence of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, all of that has been accelerated.

“I’ve spoken to officials and thought leaders in the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, and there’s consensus that the Abraham Accords are, at best, on pause. Someone even said the accords are in a coma and they will need to be resuscitated after the war ends in Gaza.”

Harris, Joe Biden’s vice president, is likely to follow in his administration’s footsteps to some extent when it comes to the Abraham Accords.

“The Biden administration was a bit slow to embrace the model of the accords when they came into office, really, because, you know, they saw it as Trump’s legacy, and they were very partisan in their approach,” said Vakil.

“But they did come around, and they did begin to embrace this idea of integration through normalization. The reality, though — and this is what we’ve seen born out since Oct. 7 — is that without providing a mechanism and commitment to restart a peace process, and one that allows Palestinians to have self-determination, the accords, on their own, cannot deliver Israel’s security or provide the region with that integration, that economic and security integration that they’re seeking.”




Israel's relentless revenge attacks that has killed  more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza to date has only served to derail attempts at restoring peace in the region. (AFP)/File)

A reboot of the agreements in the wake of the cessation of the current hostilities would be an opportunity — if not a precondition — to reconfigure them and put Palestinian demands at the top of the agenda.

“The Abraham Accords was a well-intentioned initiative led by countries in the region that wanted to prioritize their national security and economic interests,” Merissa Khurma said.

“No one can say taking the path of peace is a bad idea. But the heavy criticism from the region and the Arab public in general, which you can see in the polling from 2021 until today, is that in doing so they basically sidelined the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and flipped the formula that was the essence of the Arab Peace Initiative led by Saudi Arabia in 2002.”


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To move forward successfully, said Katulis, whoever becomes America’s next president must “prioritize Palestine and make it a big item on the agenda.”

To do this, they should “go back to good old-fashioned collective diplomacy and form a regional coalition with a new international framework to create the state of Palestine. It’s ripe for the picking, and I would lean into it.”

Katulis added: “I would advise either President Trump or Harris to work by, with and through all of these countries, from Saudi Arabia to Morocco and others, those that have accords and those that want to. I would spend at least six months assembling everything that people have argued since the war started, and what they’d be willing to do, and what they’d be willing to invest, and present to Israel, the Israeli public and its politicians an offer — a state of Palestine that is going to be good for your security and will also insulate you from the threats presented by Iran.




Palestinian demonstrators sit before Israeli border guards in Beit Jala, occupied West Bank on September 3, 2024 in solidarity with a Palestinian family whose land was taken over by armed Israeli settlers planning to build a new outpost, aggravating animosities. (AFP)

“It is important to think practical, to think realistic, and realistic is that the next US president is not going to actually attend to a lot of these issues, so we’ve got to work with and through people diplomatically.

“Use that new energy in the UAE and Saudi Arabia and other places, use the resources they have to actually do some good, and that good should have as its endpoint making an offer to say, this is a state of Palestine which will coexist with Israel.”

That new energy, said Khurma, was evident at the 33rd summit of the Arab League in Bahrain in May.

In the joint declaration issued afterward, the league reiterated “our unwavering position and our call for a just and comprehensive peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine, as well as our support for the call of His Excellency President Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine, for an international peace conference to be convened and for irreversible steps to be taken to implement the two-state solution, in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and authoritative international resolutions, with a view to establishing an independent and sovereign Palestinian State, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on the basis of the lines of 4 June 1967.”




Palestinian Authority's President Mahmud Abbas holds a placard showing maps of historical Palestine as he meets by video conference with representatives of Palestinian factions gathered at the Palestinian embassy in Beirut on September 3, 2020,. (POOL/AFP)

For whoever becomes the next president of the US, this initiative could be the vital missing component needed to jumpstart the Abraham Accords.

“When they met in Bahrain, the Arab countries revived the Arab Peace Initiative and took it a step further,” Khurma said.

“In the US media, there was very little coverage, but the declaration is very important because it shows that even in the midst of this horrific war, these countries are still willing to revive the Arab Peace Initiative, a peace plan with Israel, and to extend a hand to normalize with Israel, but of course, without leaving the Palestinians behind.”
 

 


Israel PM names new security chief, defying attorney general

Israel PM names new security chief, defying attorney general
Updated 23 May 2025
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Israel PM names new security chief, defying attorney general

Israel PM names new security chief, defying attorney general

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday his pick for the next head of the Shin Bet domestic security agency, defying the country’s attorney general and a significant segment of the public.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu announced this evening his decision to appoint Major General David Zini as the next head of the Shin Bet,” a statement from the premier’s office said.
The decision is the latest development in a long-running controversy surrounding the role, which has seen mass protests against the incumbent chief’s dismissal, as well as against moves pushed by Netanyahu’s government to expand elected officials’ power to appoint judges.
The supreme court on Wednesday ruled the government’s decision to fire current domestic security chief Ronen Bar was “improper and unlawful.”
Netanyahu’s move to tap Zini to replace Bar directly defied Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who had said that, given the court ruling, the premier “must refrain from any action related to the appointment of a new head of the Shin Bet.”
Netanyahu immediately responded in a rare press conference that his government would make an appointment despite Baharav-Miara’s stance.
Following Thursday’s announcement, the attorney general released a statement saying that the prime minister was acting “contrary to legal guidance.”
“There is serious concern that he acted while in a conflict of interest, and the appointment process is flawed,” the statement said.
Zini, the son of immigrants from France and the grandson of a Holocaust survivor, has held “many” operational and command positions in the Israeli military, Thursday’s announcement said, including for some elite units and combat brigades.
The announcement comes after more than two months of political and legal wrangling over who should head the powerful agency.
In March, Netanyahu said that he was dismissing Bar due to “ongoing lack of trust.”


Israel issues evacuation warning for parts of Gaza

Israel issues evacuation warning for parts of Gaza
Updated 22 May 2025
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Israel issues evacuation warning for parts of Gaza

Israel issues evacuation warning for parts of Gaza

GAZA CITY: The Israeli army issued an evacuation warning on Thursday for 14 neighborhoods of northern Gaza, as it pressed a renewed offensive that has drawn international condemnation.

The warning came hours after the UN said it had collected and begun distributing around 90 truckloads of aid in Gaza, the first such delivery since Israel imposed a total blockade on the territory on March 2.

Under global pressure for an end to the blockade and the violence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was open to a “temporary ceasefire” in Gaza, but reaffirmed the military aimed to bring the entire territory under its control.

In an Arabic-language statement on Thursday, the military said it was “operating with intense force” in 14 areas in the northern Gaza Strip, accusing “terrorist organizations” of operating there.

The army issued a similar warning for northern Gaza on Wednesday evening in what the army said was a response to rocket fire.

It later announced three more launches from northern Gaza, but said the projectiles had fallen inside the Palestinian territory.

Netanyahu said it was necessary to “avoid a humanitarian crisis in order to preserve our freedom of operational action” in Gaza.

Palestinians have been scrambling for basic supplies, with Israel’s blockade leading to critical food and medicine shortages.

Israel has meanwhile kept up its bombardment, with Gaza’s civil defense agency reporting at least 19 people had been killed in Israeli attacks on Thursday.

Umm Talal Al-Masri, 53, a displaced Palestinian in Gaza City, described the situation as “unbearable.”

“No one is distributing anything to us. Everyone is waiting for aid, but we haven’t received anything,” she said.

“We barely manage to prepare one meal a day.”

UN agencies have said that the amount of aid entering Gaza falls far short of what is required to ease the crisis.

“I am tormented for my children,” said Hossam Abu Aida, another resident of the Gaza Strip.

“For them, I fear hunger and disease more than I do Israeli bombardment,” the 38-year-old added. The army stepped up its offensive at the weekend, vowing to defeat Hamas, whose October 2023 attack on Israel triggered the war.

Israel has faced mounting pressure, including from traditional allies, to halt its expanded offensive and allow aid into Gaza.

EU foreign ministers agreed on Tuesday to review the bloc’s cooperation accord with Israel.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry has said the EU action “reflects a total misunderstanding of the complex reality Israel is facing.”

Sweden said it would press the 27-nation bloc to impose sanctions on Israeli ministers, while Britain suspended free-trade negotiations with Israel and summoned the Israeli ambassador.

There has been a global spike in anti-Semitic attacks since the Hamas attack in 2023, with a gunman shooting dead two Israeli Embassy staffers outside a Jewish museum in Washington.

Britain, France, Germany, the US, and other countries around the world all condemned the shooting.


British doctors working in Gaza describe territory as a ‘slaughterhouse’

British doctors working in Gaza describe territory as a ‘slaughterhouse’
Updated 22 May 2025
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British doctors working in Gaza describe territory as a ‘slaughterhouse’

British doctors working in Gaza describe territory as a ‘slaughterhouse’
  • ‘There’s no food getting in so people are starving,’ surgeon Tom Potokar says
  • World leaders urged to ‘stop talking and do something’

LONDON: British doctors working in Gaza have described the territory as a “slaughterhouse,” where the patients they are treating are severely malnourished.

Plastic surgeons and orthopedic specialists from the UK are based at the Amal and Nasser hospitals in Khan Younis in the south of the territory.

Dr. Tom Potokar, a plastic surgeon specializing in burn injuries, has worked in Gaza 16 times but said this mission had revealed a level of destruction far greater than his last visit in 2023, Sky News reported.

“What can you say, it’s horrific, it’s a slaughterhouse,” Potokar said after operating on a badly injured Palestinian woman whose husband and children were killed in an Israeli attack.

He urged world leaders to “stop talking and do something.”

 

 

Potokar moved to Amal hospital last week after the nearby European hospital where he had been working was hit by Israeli missiles and forced to close.

Gaza’s health care is in a state of collapse, with hospitals being repeatedly targeted by Israel since the war started in October 2023.

The relentless airstrikes and bombings have killed more than 53,000 people and hospitals are full of Palestinians with blast-related injuries.

A blockade of humanitarian aid since March has further strained hospitals, leaving doctors with limited supplies to treat the injured.

“The difference this time I think is the intensity,” Potokar said. “Back in October to December 2023 was the last time I was here, there was a lot of wounded and it was very intense as well.

“I think the difference this time is, because of the blockade there’s so little stuff getting in, there’s no food getting in so people are starving. There’s very little medical supplies coming in but also the other very noticeable thing is the massive extent of destruction. I mean, Khan Younis looks like Stalingrad.”

The report showed the chaos of the hospital’s emergency rooms, with badly injured children being brought in for initial treatment before being sent for surgery with the British medics.

Most of the injuries are blast wounds and the patients are malnourished.

In Nasser hospital, a baby arrived with chest and back burns, while another lay silent having suffered shrapnel wounds and was unable to see from one eye.

Dr. Victoria Rose, a British plastic surgeon working at the hospital, showed the inside of the burns unit, which was shut down after being hit by Israeli missiles.

Israel this week ordered residents to evacuate Khan Younis, leading to several of the hospital’s staff being unable to get to work, Rose said.

“My anesthetic nurse and Graeme’s orthopedic colleague had to leave us mid-case to go and evacuate their families to an area of safety,” she said.

Dr. Graeme Groom, a surgeon working alongside Rose, praised his Palestinian colleagues.

“These are people just like you and me, they have their homes, their families, they live normal lives. Many are very impressive people and without notice they have to pick up a grab bag and leave, look for food, look for water, look for shelter, but turn up at work each day,” he said.

The surgeons fear that the hospitals may have to be evacuated as Israel expands its military operation in the area as part of a plan to take complete control of the territory.


Israel strikes south Lebanon, army says Hezbollah fighter killed

Israel strikes south Lebanon, army says Hezbollah fighter killed
Updated 22 May 2025
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Israel strikes south Lebanon, army says Hezbollah fighter killed

Israel strikes south Lebanon, army says Hezbollah fighter killed
  • The Israeli military said its forces had carried out several strikes targeting Hezbollah sites and killed one militant
  • The “urgent warning” was accompanied by a map showing a structure and the 500-meter radius around it marked in red

BEIRUT: Lebanese state media said an Israeli air strike hit a building in southern Lebanon on Thursday after Israel’s military issued an evacuation call warning of imminent action against Hezbollah militants.

Israel has kept up its air strikes in neighboring Lebanon despite a November truce aimed at halting more than a year of hostilities with Hezbollah that included two months of full-blown war.

Without confirming the reported attack on the southern town of Toul, the Israeli military said its forces had carried out several strikes targeting Hezbollah sites and killed one militant.

Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) said that “the Israeli enemy” struck a building in Toul, where the army had warned residents to evacuate the area around a building it said was used by Hezbollah militants.

The “urgent warning” was accompanied by a map showing a structure and the 500-meter (0.3-mile) radius around it marked in red.

“You are located near facilities belonging to the terrorist (group) Hezbollah,” the statement said in Arabic, urging people “to evacuate these buildings immediately and move away from them.”

There were no immediate reports of casualties in Toul.

In a separate statement, the military said it had “struck and eliminated a Hezbollah Radwan Force terrorist in the area of Rab El Thalathine,” about 17 kilometers (10 miles) to the southeast.

The NNA reported a “martyr” in an air strike in the same area, without identifying them.

The Israeli military said its forces also “struck a Hezbollah military site containing rocket launchers and weapons” in the Bekaa Valley as well as “terrorist infrastructure sites and rocket launchers belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization... in southern Lebanon.”

A military statement said that “the presence of weapons in the area and Hezbollah activities at the site constitute blatant violations of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon” under the November ceasefire agreement.

Israel will “continue to operate to remove any threat... and will prevent any attempt by Hezbollah to re-establish its terror capabilities,” it said.

Under the ceasefire, Hezbollah fighters were to pull back north of the Litani River and dismantle military infrastructure south of it.

Israel was to withdraw all forces from Lebanon, but it has kept troops in five areas that it deems “strategic.”

The Lebanese army has deployed in the south and has been dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure.

The truce was based on a UN Security Council resolution that says Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers should be the only people to bear arms in south Lebanon, and calls for the disarmament of all non-state groups.


Egyptian president, UK prime minister discuss Gaza ceasefire, humanitarian aid

Egyptian president, UK prime minister discuss Gaza ceasefire, humanitarian aid
Updated 22 May 2025
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Egyptian president, UK prime minister discuss Gaza ceasefire, humanitarian aid

Egyptian president, UK prime minister discuss Gaza ceasefire, humanitarian aid
  • Leaders discussed Egyptian, Qatari, and US efforts to enforce ceasefire in the Palestinian coastal enclave
  • Abdul Fatah El-Sisi praised ‘positive’ UK position on Gaza, agreed with Sir Keir Starmer on continuing coordination

LONDON: Egyptian President Abdul Fatah El-Sisi praised the UK’s “positive position” on developments in Gaza during a phone call with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on Thursday.

The Egyptian Presidency said El-Sisi and Sir Keir discussed strengthening cooperation in the economic, trade, and investment sectors while continuing political consultations on various topics.

Ambassador Mohamed El-Shennawy, the presidential spokesman, said the two leaders discussed the situation in the Gaza Strip and Egyptian, Qatari, and US efforts to enforce a ceasefire in the Palestinian coastal enclave and ensure the flow of humanitarian aid.

The Egyptian president emphasized Cairo’s rejection of displacing Palestinians and expressed support for the Arab-Islamic plan to rebuild Gaza following a ceasefire.

El-Sisi praised the “positive” UK position regarding the situation in Gaza and agreed with the prime minister on continuing coordination to address regional and international developments.

The UK announced on Tuesday that it will stop free-trade negotiations with Israel and has summoned the Israeli ambassador to the Foreign Office in response to Tel Aviv’s expansion of military operations in Gaza.