Mediation for peace between India and Pakistan
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India-Pakistan relations have hit rock bottom in recent years. Both countries have exchanged allegations of espionage, cross border terrorism and fired at each other along the Line of Control on a near daily basis. The Pulwama incident in Indian-administered Kashmir led to the violation of Pakistani airspace and bombing near Balakot city. Pakistan Air Force retaliated effectively and the Indian decision to annul Kashmir autonomy and allow outsiders to settle there made things worse. Pakistan recalled its ambassador from New Delhi and stopped trade with India. The world looked on at these nuclear powers exchanging regular invectives and firing in Kashmir with bated breath.
However, parallel back-channel diplomacy continued through common friends. Some weeks back, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan paid a visit to New Delhi during which he deliberately avoided talking to the media. Within days it was announced that India and Pakistan had agreed on a cease-fire in Kashmir. Later on, the UAE Ambassador in the US, Yousaf al Otaiba confirmed that his country had played a role in dousing the fires in Kashmir. He added that the objective was to restore diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level in order to make the bilateral ties healthy and functional. The relations should “become operational where they are talking to each other” Al Otaiba said.
UAE enjoys friendly relations with both India and Pakistan. Both countries have large workforces in the UAE, and a substantial volume of trade and investments. Pakistan has played a role in training the defense forces of various Arab countries, including the UAE. India and UAE have substantial investments in each other’s economies. Both India and Pakistan are important for maritime security as the bulk of the UAE seaborne trade passes through their territorial waters. These three nations have vital stakes in regional peace.
India and China were involved in bloody border clashes last summer, not far from Azad Kashmir. India realized that a two front situation would not be favorable. Pakistan thought that perennial tension at the eastern border negatively impacted on its efforts to improve the economy. In a seminar held in Islamabad, General Bajwa the Army Chief, while referring to the Indo-Pak situation, said:
“It is time to bury the past.”
For India, quick normalization with Pakistan will mean a retreat from its muscular foreign policy espoused by the BJP government. Pakistan too cannot afford to ignore the ground realities in Kashmir while normalizing relations with its eastern neighbor. There are thus political as well as psychological barriers that could slow down the progress on the road to Indo-Pak normalization.
Javed Hafeez
Time was now opportune for the mediator to calm down the emotionally charged sub-continental situation. In fact, daily shelling across the LoC was neither helping India nor Pakistan. Its net result was the colossal wastage of resources and loss of lives among civilians.
In terms of trade, both India and Pakistan are extremely important for the UAE and the converse is true as well. Therefore, economic development in the South Asian sub-continent would benefit UAE as more energy resources will be required. Peace in the region is a win-win scenario for all three. After completion of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan will become a catalyst for the promotion of GCC-China trade. All countries trading via Pakistan will naturally develop a stake in its security.
This week, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar were in Abu Dhabi, both at the invitation of their UAE counterpart and therefore their simultaneous presence is not sheer co-incidence. It is also pertinent to note that the Indian and Pakistani Foreign ministries have deliberately shown these as bilateral visits. This is understandable because India does not encourage third party mediation in Indo-Pak issues, as a matter of policy. No wonder the Indian Foreign Minister said that his UAE visit was for “discussing economic co-operation and community welfare.”
Pakistan, on the other hand, declared in August 2019 that it would not normalize relations with India unless it restored article 370 of its constitution regarding Kashmir. At the same time, Pakistan has said it would welcome third party mediation with a view to resolving Indo-Pak issues.
For India, quick normalization with Pakistan will mean a retreat from its muscular foreign policy espoused by the BJP government. Pakistan too cannot afford to ignore the ground realities in Kashmir while normalizing relations with its eastern neighbor. There are thus political as well as psychological barriers that could slow down the progress on the road to Indo-Pak normalization.
But the fruits of normalization are tangible and attractive. For Pakistan, it will afford an atmosphere relaxed enough to focus on much required economic growth. India’s economic gap with China has widened of late and that is worrisome. Peace with Pakistan could enhance economic growth in India. Pakistan will be willing to provide east-west connectivity once the thorny issue of Kashmir is resolved. The dividend of peace in the sub-continent will result in poverty alleviation on both sides of the border.
While the UAE has undertaken a somewhat arduous task, it will benefit millions and is therefore worth it.
- Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.
Twitter: @hafiz_javed
