Putin: Russia will use all means to guard annexed regions

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his lieutenants have bluntly warned Ukraine against pressing an offensive to reclaim the regions. (Kremlin via Reuters)
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Updated 30 September 2022
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Putin: Russia will use all means to guard annexed regions

  • Russian leader warns Moscow would never give up the occupied areas
  • Vladimir Putin urges Ukraine to sit down for talks to end the fighting

KYIV: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed documents to incorporate four Ukrainian territories into Russia in a televised ceremony in the Kremlin.

Russia declared the annexations of the regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - after holding what it called referendums in occupied areas of Ukraine. Western governments and Kyiv said the votes breached international law and were coercive and unrepresentative.

In a speech preceding a treaty-signing ceremony to make four Ukrainian regions part of Russia, Putin warned his country would never give up the occupied areas and would protect them as part of its sovereign territory.

He urged Ukraine to sit down for talks to end the fighting, but warned sternly that Russia would never surrender control of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. He accused the West of fueling the hostilities as part of its plan to turn Russia into a “colony” and a “crowds of slaves.”

The ceremony comes three days after the completion of Kremlin-orchestrated “referendums” on joining Russia that were dismissed by Kyiv and the West as a bare-faced land grab, held at gunpoint and based on lies.

The event in the Kremlin’s opulent white-and-gold St. George’s Hall was organized for Putin and the heads of the four regions of Ukraine to sign treaties for the areas to join Russia, in a sharp escalation of the seven-month conflict.

The separatist Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine have been backed by Moscow since declaring independence in 2014, weeks after the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. The southern Kherson region and part of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia were captured by Russia soon after Putin sent troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Both houses of the Kremlin-controlled Russian parliament will meet next week to rubber-stamp the treaties for the regions to join Russia, sending them to Putin for his approval.

Putin and his lieutenants have bluntly warned Ukraine against pressing an offensive to reclaim the regions, saying Russia would view it as an act of aggression against its sovereign territory and wouldn’t hesitate to use “all means available” in retaliation, a reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

The Kremlin-organized votes in Ukraine and the nuclear warning are an attempt by Putin to avoid more defeats in Ukraine that could threaten his 22-year rule.

Russia controls most of the Luhansk and Kherson regions, about 60 percent of the Donetsk region and a large chunk of the Zaporizhzhia region where it took control of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

Asked about Russia’s plans, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that at the very least Moscow aims to “liberate” the entire Donetsk region.

As it prepared to celebrate the incorporation of the occupied Ukrainian regions, the Kremlin was on the verge of another stinging battlefield loss, with reports of the imminent Ukrainian encirclement of the eastern city of Lyman.

Retaking it could open the path for Ukraine to push deep into one of the regions Russia is absorbing, a move widely condemned as illegal that opens a dangerous new phase of the seven-month war.

Russia on Friday also pounded Ukrainian cities with missiles, rockets and suicide drones, with one strike reported to have killed 25 people. The salvos together amounted to the heaviest barrage that Russia has unleashed for weeks.

They followed analysts’ warnings that Putin was likely to dip more heavily into his dwindling stocks of precision weapons and step up attacks as part of a strategy to escalate the war to an extent that would shatter Western support for Ukraine.

The Kremlin preceded its scheduled annexation ceremonies Friday with another warning to Ukraine that it shouldn’t fight to take back the four regions. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would view a Ukrainian attack on the taken territory as an act of aggression against Russia itself.

The annexations are Russia’s attempt to set its gains in stone, at least on paper, and scare Ukraine and its Western backers with the prospect of an increasingly escalatory conflict unless they back down — which they show no signs of doing. The Kremlin paved the way for the land-grabs with “referendums,” sometimes at gunpoint, that Ukraine and Western powers universally dismissed as rigged shams.

“It looks quite pathetic. Ukrainians are doing something, taking steps in the real material world, while the Kremlin is building some kind of a virtual reality, incapable of responding in the real world,” former Kremlin speechwriter turned political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said.

“People understand that the politics is now on the battlefield,” he added. “What’s important is who advances and who retreats. In that sense, the Kremlin cannot offer anything сomforting to the Russians.”

A Ukrainian counter-offensive has deprived Moscow of mastery on the military fields of battle. Its hold of the Luhansk region appears increasingly shaky, as Ukrainian forces make inroads there, with the pincer assault on Lyman. Ukraine also still has a large foothold in the neighboring Donetsk region.

Luhansk and Donetsk – wracked by fighting since separatists there declared independence in 2014 – form the wider Donbas region of eastern Ukraine that Putin has long vowed, but so far failed, to make completely Russian. Peskov said that both Donetsk and Luhansk will be incorporated Friday into Russia in their entirety.

All of Kherson and parts of Zaporizhzhia, two other regions being prepared for annexation, were newly occupied in the invasion’s opening phase. It’s unclear whether the Kremlin will declare all, or just part, of that occupied territory as Russia’s. Peskov wouldn’t say in a call Friday with reporters.

In the Zaporizhzhia region’s capital, anti-aircraft missiles that Russia has repurposed as ground-attack weapons rained down Friday on people who were waiting in cars to cross into Russian-occupied territory so they could bring family members back across front lines, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said.

The general prosecutor’s office said 25 people were killed and 50 wounded. The strike left deep impact craters and sent shrapnel tearing through the humanitarian convoy’s lined-up vehicles, killing their passengers. Nearby buildings were demolished. Trash bags, blankets and, for one victim, a blood-soaked towel, were used to cover bodies.

Russian-installed officials in Zaporizhzhia blamed Ukrainian forces for the strike, but provided no evidence.

Russian strikes were also reported in the city of Dnipro. The regional governor, Valentyn Reznichenko, said at least one person was killed and five others were wounded.

Ukraine’s air force said the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa were also targeted with Iranian-supplied suicide drones that Russia has increasingly deployed in recent weeks, seemingly to avoid losing more pilots who don’t have control of Ukraine’s skies.

Putin was expected to give a major speech at the ceremony to fold Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia into Russia. The Kremlin planned for the region’s pro-Moscow administrators to sign annexation treaties in the ornate St. George’s Hall of the palace in Moscow that is Putin’s seat of power.

Putin also issued decrees recognizing the supposed independence of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, steps he previously took in February for Luhansk and Donetsk and earlier for Crimea, seized from Ukraine in 2014.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, called an emergency meeting of his National Security and Defense Council and denounced the latest Russian strikes.

“The enemy rages and seeks revenge for our steadfastness and his failures,” he posted on his Telegram channel. “You will definitely answer. For every lost Ukrainian life!”

The US and its allies have promised even more sanctions on Russia and billions of dollars in extra support for Ukraine as the Kremlin duplicates the annexation playbook used for Crimea.

With Ukraine vowing to take back all occupied territory and Russia pledging to defend its gains, threatening nuclear-weapon use and mobilizing an additional 300,000 troops despite protests, the two nations are on an increasingly escalatory collision course.

That was underscored by the fighting for Lyman, a key node for Russian military operations in the Donbas and a sought-after prize in the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in late August.

The Russian-backed separatist leader of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, said the city is now “half-encircled” by Ukrainian forces. In comments reported by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, he described the setback as “worrying news.”

”Ukraine’s armed formations,” he said, “are trying very hard to spoil our celebration.”


Modi, Gandhi urge more Indians to vote as election reaches halfway mark

Updated 19 sec ago
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Modi, Gandhi urge more Indians to vote as election reaches halfway mark

  • Voter turnout in the first 2 phases of election was lower than in 2019
  • With phase 3 complete, half of voters should have already cast ballots

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his chief opponent Rahul Gandhi called on voters to cast their ballots on Tuesday, as India’s massive general election reached its halfway mark with a turnout lower than expected.

More than 968 million people have been registered to vote and the polls are held in seven phases from April 19 until June 1. Some of India’s 28 states and eight federally governed territories complete the process on a single day, while others spread it out.

The first two phases of the election were held on April 19 and April 26 in 190 constituencies, with a voter turnout of 66.1 percent and 66.7 percent respectively — about 4 percent lower than in 2019.

In the third phase on Tuesday, citizens from 94 constituencies in 12 states went to the polls, including in Modi’s home state of Gujarat.

“Urging all those who are voting in today’s phase to vote in record numbers. Their active participation will certainly make the elections more vibrant,” the incumbent prime minister said on X after casting his ballot.

Modi is eyeing a rare third straight five-year term in power, targeting 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance led by his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, which has been in power since 2014.

He is challenged by an alliance of two dozen opposition parties — the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA, led by the Congress Party, which has ruled the country for close to 45 years since its independence in 1947.

Gandhi, Modi’s key contender and Congress leader, is the son of Rajiv Gandhi, a grandson of Indira Gandhi, and a great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru — all of whom had served as prime ministers of India.

Congress plunged to a historic low when it was swept out of power by the BJP in the 2014 election, and won its second-lowest number of 52 seats in 2019.

As the turnout showed a declining trend in the first and second phases of the ongoing poll, Gandhi also took to social media to ask voters to show up.

“I request all of you to come out in large numbers and vote to protect your rights,” he said. “Remember, this is not an ordinary election, it is an election to protect the democracy and constitution of the country.”

More than 498 million people were eligible to vote in the first three phases, or 60 percent of all registered voters. The total number of parliamentary seats up for grabs is 283 out of 543.

The party or coalition that wins at least 272 seats will form the government.

Although surveys suggest Modi will win a majority in parliament easily, analysts say a repeat of his landslide victories in 2014 and 2019 is unlikely.

“I think the election has not gone very satisfactorily for the ruling party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The results may be well below their expectations,” said Anand K. Sahay, a columnist and commentator based in Delhi.

“My own broad sense is that the government is in the doldrums.”

He said Modi was repeating his previous strategy of mobilizing voters through majoritarian Hindu sentiment, omitting the voters’ main concerns, which pre-poll surveys have identified as unemployment and inflation.

“The prime minister of India is holding on to one single narrative, that is ranting against the Muslims of India. A man who regards himself as a very successful prime minister for 10 consecutive years is not talking about issues and the records of the governance. There is a deafening silence on that front,” Sahay told Arab News.

Apoorvanand Jha, a public intellectual and professor at the University of Delhi, said voters were now “weary” of the rhetoric propagated by the BJP, but it was not clear whether that would result in a regime change.

“What people have realized now is that it is only political rhetoric and, actually, there is no governance, so that has created a feeling of unease even in the supporters of this regime,” he said.

“One does not know whether that will lead to a major change or not. But this is a major shift. The myth of the invincibility of Narendra Modi is broken and the myth of the popularity of Narendra Modi is also something that people have started questioning.”


Two suspected Kashmir rebels killed in clash with Indian forces

Updated 1 min 57 sec ago
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Two suspected Kashmir rebels killed in clash with Indian forces

  • Firefight between suspected rebels, soldiers takes place amid national elections in disputed territory
  • Divided between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan since 1947, Kashir is claimed by both countries in full

SRINAGAR, India: Two suspected rebels were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir during a firefight with soldiers, police said Tuesday, at a time when campaigning for national elections is underway in the disputed territory.

Scores of soldiers besieged a residential area in southern Kulgam district, some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Kashmir’s biggest city Srinagar, on Monday after armed militants were suspected to be present inside a house.

Two bodies of the suspected rebels “were recovered so far” from the site, police said in a statement posted Tuesday on social media platform X.

Images from the area showed smoke billowing from a house after it caught fire during the skirmish.

Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan since their independence in 1947, with both claiming the Himalayan territory in full.

Rebel groups opposed to Indian rule have for decades waged an insurgency in Indian-controlled Kashmir, demanding either independence or a merger with Pakistan.

The conflict has left tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and militants dead.

Violence and anti-India protests have drastically reduced since 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government canceled the Muslim majority region’s limited autonomy.

But clashes between security forces and rebel groups have increased since voting began last month in India’s six-week election.

Three suspected rebels were killed and a police officer and three soldiers wounded in three separate clashes across the territory in April.

Militants ambushed a military convoy in Kashmir’s south on Sunday, killing one Indian air force corporal and wounding four other troops.


Trinidad, Tobago urged to repatriate women, children from Iraq

Updated 52 min 2 sec ago
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Trinidad, Tobago urged to repatriate women, children from Iraq

  • A number of its citizens are being held in detention for alleged involvement with Daesh
  • Human Rights Watch: Innocent children have been denied proper access to education, healthcare, nutritious food

London: Human Rights Watch has urged the government of Trinidad and Tobago to repatriate a number of its citizens from Iraq being held in detention for alleged involvement with Daesh.

HRW said four Trinidadian women have been held by authorities in Iraq along with seven children, aged 7-15 years, for almost seven years.

It said it had been in contact with one mother, currently in Rusafa prison, who on May 2 told them in a voice recording that her two sons, aged 13 and 15 — one of whom suffers from asthma, anaemia and malnutrition — had been taken away from her.

“They took my son from me, they told me he was too big to be staying in a cell with us. They put him in a cell with about 10 boys,” she said.

“We have no education for our children. Nothing. We are going on our seventh year in prison and our children are growing up here.”

Another mother told HRW on May 4: “We are here just waiting, and time is wasting. Our children remain uneducated without any knowledge.”

Rusafa is believed to hold around 100 youths as well as their mothers, with many of the adults foreign nationals charged with or convicted of terrorism-related crimes.

Three of the four Trinidadian women are being held there, serving sentences of 20 years or more.

The fourth is being held with her two children in the city of Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, where she has completed her sentence but cannot leave without government help.

Jo Becker, children’s rights advocacy director at HRW, said: “Trinidad and Tobago has publicly promised that it would bring home its nationals from Iraq and Syria, but not a single Trinidadian has returned home in more than five years.

“These children, who are not responsible for any crime, should be in school in Trinidad and Tobago, not languishing in an Iraqi prison.”

The four women from Trinidad and Tobago told HRW that they are prepared to have their children repatriated even if it means they must stay in Iraq, but have had no word on a decision by the government despite communicating with the repatriation committee established by Trinidadian Prime Minister Keith Rowley in March 2023.

HRW said the Trinidadian authorities should look to repatriate the children as they have been denied proper access to education, healthcare and nutritious food.

In a statement, it said: “The Iraqi and Trinidadian authorities should weigh the children’s best interests and right to family unity and consider repatriating both the children and their mothers, so their children could regularly visit their mothers as they serve out their sentences in Trinidad and Tobago.”

Becker added: “Trinidad and Tobago’s prime minister has pledged to bring the Trinidadians detained in Iraq and Syria home. He shouldn’t wait any longer.”


Dutch police end a pro-Palestinian demonstration at Amsterdam university

Updated 07 May 2024
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Dutch police end a pro-Palestinian demonstration at Amsterdam university

  • Police said they had to act to stop the event and dismantle tents that been set up by protesters
  • Outgoing Education minister Robbert Dijkgraaf said universities are a place for dialogue and debate and he was sad to see police had to intervene

AMSTERDAM: Dutch riot police ended a pro-Palestinian demonstration at an Amsterdam university early on Tuesday, arresting some 125 people in sometimes violent clashes, authorities said.
In messages posted overnight on social media X, police said they had to act to stop the event and dismantle tents that been set up by protesters, who used violence against police at the site.
“The police’s input was necessary to restore order. We see the footage on social media. We understand that those images may appear as intense,” police said.
Local media showed demonstrators shooting fireworks at police officers but there were no immediate reports of injuries on either side.
“All is now quiet ... police stay in the vicinity of the Roeterseiland campus,” police said later on X.
Outgoing Education minister Robbert Dijkgraaf said universities are a place for dialogue and debate and he was sad to see that police had to intervene.
Student protests over the war and academic ties with Israel have begun to spread across Europe but have remained much smaller in scale than those seen in the United States.
Last Friday, police in Paris entered France’s prestigious Sciences Po university and removed student activists who had occupied its buildings.
More than 100 students occupy the Ghent university, in Belgium, in both a climate and a Gaza protest that they want to prolong until Wednesday.


India election: Inside Modi and BJP’s plan to win a supermajority

Updated 07 May 2024
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India election: Inside Modi and BJP’s plan to win a supermajority

  • Hindu nationalist BJP party and its allies are targeting 400 of 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament
  • Only once has a party crossed 400 mark, when Congress won following assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984

BARPETA/THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, India: As India votes in a six-week general election, Narendra Modi’s image adorns everything from packs of rice handed out to the poor to large posters in cities and towns.

His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is relying on the prime minister’s popularity as it seeks a super-majority in India’s parliament. Its message: Modi has delivered economic growth, infrastructure upgrades and India’s improved standing in the world.

But as the Hindu nationalist party and its allies target 400 of the 543 seats in India’s lower house of parliament — up from 352 won in 2019 — they are also employing local tactics in some vital constituencies they hope to wrest from the opposition.

Opinion polls indicate Modi will win a rare third term when voting ends on June 1. But only once in Indian history has a party crossed the 400 mark — when the center-left Congress party romped to victory following the assassination of its leader Indira Gandhi in 1984.

To examine how the right-wing National Democratic Alliance (NDA) aims to achieve that feat — and the obstacles it faces — Reuters spoke to nine NDA officials, three opposition leaders and two political analysts, as well as voters in six opposition-held seats the alliance is targeting.

They identified three of the BJP’s key tactics: enlisting celebrity candidates to unseat veteran opposition lawmakers; making an assault on the opposition’s southern strongholds by appealing to minorities such as Christians; and exploiting redrawn political boundaries that bolster the Hindu electorate in some opposition-controlled areas in the north.

“A combination of strategies, organizational commitment and tactical flexibility will help make inroads in seats never held by the party ever before,” BJP President J. P. Nadda, who oversees the party’s election strategy, told Reuters in April.

Some critics have warned the BJP would use a large majority to push through a more radical agenda in a third term. While the BJP’s manifesto focuses heavily on economic growth, it has also pledged to scrap separate legal codes for religious and tribal groups in areas such as marriage and inheritance.

Many Muslims and tribal groups oppose the plan, which would require a constitutional amendment to be passed by at least two-thirds of parliament.

“Modi wants a landslide majority only to be able to end the debate and deliberation on any policy matter in the parliament,” Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge told Reuters.

Following low turnout in early voting, some BJP campaign officials have in recent days appeared less confident of securing a huge majority, though the party still expects to form the next government.

SOUTHERN STRATEGY

Modi’s party has criticized the dynastic politics that it says afflicts Congress, long dominated by the Nehru-Gandhi family. But in Pathanamthitta, a seat in the southern state of Kerala, it is fielding a political scion in Anil Antony — son of a veteran Congress leader.

The constituency, home to a sizeable Christian minority, has been held by Congress since its creation in 2009.

Anil’s father, former defense minister A.K. Antony, supports the incumbent and has denounced his son, a fellow Christian, for representing the Hindu nationalist party.

But Anil has another supporter: Modi, who came to Pathanamthitta in March and praised the BJP candidate for his “fresh vision and leadership.” The prime minister has visited the five states of southern India at least 16 times since December.

Nadda, the BJP president, acknowledged that winning a supermajority would require performing well in the five southern states, which are home to about 20 percent of India’s population but have not traditionally voted for his party.

In 2019, the NDA won just 31 of 130 seats across Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, all of which are linguistically diverse and have many Muslim and Christian voters.

Jiji Joseph, general secretary of the BJP’s minority wing in Kerala, said the party has made a concerted push for the 18 percent of voters there who are Christians. The BJP did not win a single seat in Kerala at the last general election.

“The BJP launched active contact with the Church and we started interacting with clergies directly,” he said, adding that the party now has 11,000 active Christian members. “There is a change. Christians now want to believe that BJP stands for them.”

In April, Anil became the first BJP candidate in Kerala to be endorsed by Christian leaders. He told Reuters his selection indicated the party offered opportunities to members from minority groups. He declined to comment on relations with his father.

Jayant Joseph, a Keralan Christian voter, said he backed the BJP because he had read media reports about Muslim men marrying Christian women and converting them to Islam. Most moderate Hindus consider allegations of large-scale forced conversions to be a conspiracy theory.

“Kerala is a secular state,” he said. “But for it to continue to be a secular state, the Muslim population and their conversion strategy must be kept under check.”

A Modi political aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to media, said the NDA expects to win about 50 seats in the south.

K. Anil Kumar, a senior leader of Kerala’s ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist), said he did not believe BJP would do well in his state, which he said has a strong tradition of secularism.

“The BJP might try to side with the Christians on some issues but they are fundamentally a party of the Hindus and for the Hindus,” he said.

STAR CANDIDATES

In the Mandi constituency of the northern state of Himachal Pradesh, the BJP has recruited Bollywood actress Kangana Ranaut to break the Congress party’s grip on power. Congress is fielding as its candidate Vikramaditya Singh, whose mother currently represents the constituency. His father was the state’s long-time chief minister.

Ranaut, a political novice who calls herself a “glorious right-wing” personality, has starred in popular movies with nationalistic themes. She is known for her criticism of Bollywood executives who she said favored the relatives of famous actors for opportunities.

The actress is one of five actors running for the BJP this year, up from four in 2019.

No opinion polling on the Mandi race is publicly available.

Anjana Negia, an elementary school teacher who plans to vote for Ranaut, acknowledged that her preferred candidate had no political experience. But she said that she valued a new face and that a Modi-backed candidate would help “bring a fresh wave of development.”

Fielding celebrities and seeking the endorsement of entertainment personalities is relatively new for the BJP, which “long resisted such tactics because of its cadre-based nature” that prized grassroots efforts, said Milan Vaishnav, an expert on South Asian politics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank.

Ranaut declined an interview request. Federal BJP spokesman Shahzad Poonawala said she “has been successful in exposing dynastic culture and nepotism in Bollywood and now she is doing the same in politics.”

Singh, a state minister responsible for urban development, told Reuters that his family’s experiences gave him a better understanding of politics. Charges of nepotism were “shallow,” he said.

REDISTRICTING BENEFITS

The NDA is hoping for gains in the northeastern state of Assam, where it won nine of 14 seats in 2019. Assam’s BJP chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, said in March he was confident of winning 13 seats.

The NDA’s confidence is rooted in a 2023 redistricting exercise in the state. India’s non-partisan Election Commission routinely redraws seat boundaries to reflect population changes; it is tasked with ensuring that no political party gains undue advantage from the changes.

But exercises since the last federal election in Assam and far-northern Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only majority Muslim region, diluted the Muslim vote in seats that the NDA is targeting, according to three BJP and four opposition officials.

The Election Commission declined to comment on the two exercises, citing the ongoing election.

In Assam, the NDA has high hopes for Congress-held Barpeta, which alliance candidate Phani Bhushan Choudhury said newly includes dozens of villages and some towns with large Hindu populations.

“Earlier (Barpeta) had a Muslim majority but now it is a Hindu majority,” said Choudhury. “That change has worked in my favor.”

He estimates that there are now 1.2 million Hindu voters in Barpeta, where he is campaigning on development and protecting the rights of what the NDA calls “indigenous Assamese” voters, who are mostly Hindu.

Choudhury’s Congress opponent Deep Bayan said the percentage of Hindus in Barpeta went from 30 percent to 70 percent. “Instead focusing on real issues affecting the people...(the BJP does) the politics of polarization,” he said.

Three of Jammu and Kashmir’s five seats are majority Muslim and held by the opposition. But the NDA hopes to swing one of them, Anantnag-Rajouri, after its voter rolls swelled by more than 50 percent to over 2 million, according to government data.

Many of the new voters are Hindus or from regional tribes — which benefited from new BJP policies awarding them education and employment privileges — according to regional BJP chief Ravinder Raina.

Raina said the BJP would support an NDA partner that it believed could win Anantnag-Rajouri and focus on retaining the two Hindu-majority seats it holds.

The two redistricting exercises presages a broader remapping of constituencies due after the election.

Vaishnav, of the Carnegie Endowment, said the remapping would distribute seats to the BJP-dominated north, which has much higher population growth rates, to the detriment of wealthier south India.