Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz

Special Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
This image grab taken from a video provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard official website via SEPAH News on July 20, 2019, shows Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boarding the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz. (AFP/File)
Short Url
Updated 22 June 2025
Follow

Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz

Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
  • Even the mere suggestion that Iran could close the strait if the US joins Israeli strikes has sent oil prices soaring
  • Disruption to this strategic waterway could destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis, analysts warn

RIYADH: As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, 33-kilometer-wide stretch of water separating Oman and Iran carrying a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.

While this strategic waterway remains open for now, analysts have told Arab News any further escalation could put the vital shipping route at risk if Iran chooses to impose a blockade or attacks vessels.

A little over a week into the confrontation, which began on June 13 when Israel began striking Iran’s nuclear sites, scientists, military commanders and cities, daily exchanges of fire have killed hundreds.

Now, with threats of a maritime blockade looming should the US decide to join the conflict on Israel’s side, global energy markets are on edge. Any disruption could send prices skyrocketing, destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway; it is the artery of global energy. Any blockade would trigger a chain reaction the global economy is not prepared for,” Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman Al-Ansari told Arab News.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, 20 million barrels of oil — 20 percent of global consumption — pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, along with one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade, primarily from Qatar.

The oil lane is so vital because no real alternatives exist. Most Gulf oil cannot be rerouted without massive delays. It is the only deep-water route capable of handling the world’s largest crude tankers.




This handout natural-colour image acquired with MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite taken on February 5, 2025 shows the Gulf of Oman and the Makran region (C) in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz (L) and the northern coast of Oman (bottom). (Photo by NASA Earth Observatory / AFP)

The EIA has estimated that 84 percent of its crude flows to Asia, with China, India, Japan and South Korea as top buyers.

In February last year, the Washington-based Center for Security Policy analyzed Iran’s escalating activity in the Strait of Hormuz and said 76 percent of the crude oil transiting the waterway was destined for Asian markets.

When geopolitical tensions spiked over the past week after Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, Brent crude surged from $69 to $74 per barrel in a single day — even though no ships were blocked.

Jassem Ajaka, an economist and professor at the Lebanese University, said this shows just how sensitive markets are to the mere suggestion of instability.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably lead to a rise in the price of a barrel of oil to over $100, meaning the price will increase by about $25 in a single jump — something the global economy is not accustomed to,” Ajaka told Arab News.




An Iranian Nasr missile is fired from a navy warship during a military exercise in the Gulf of Oman, near the strategic strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. (Iranian Army handout via AFP/File)

He added: “Oil is a strategic and vital commodity, and when its price rises, inflation will rise with it because it is involved in 95 percent of other goods. The extraction of raw materials, the manufacturing of food products and other items will see their prices increase.”

Al-Ansari noted that “with Iran and Israel already in direct confrontation, the risk of escalation in this critical corridor is dangerously real. Iran sees the strait as its ultimate pressure point. Shutting it down would ignite a global oil shock, push inflation higher, and send vulnerable economies into panic.”

Ajaka explained high oil prices would confront central banks worldwide with a dilemma over whether to lower or raise interest rates. He added insurance prices would rise, contributing to inflation, and that it would also cause disruptions in supply chains across several countries.

“In the case of Lebanon, for example, it would result in a complete electricity blackout, as the country relies entirely on fuel oil coming from Iraq,” he added.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, moved 5.5 million barrels per day through Hormuz last year. That is 38 percent of total crude flows in the strait, according to tanker tracking data produced by the London-based real-time insights delivery firm, Vortexa.

While the Kingdom has contingency pipelines, they are not a perfect solution. The East-West Pipeline, with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, can divert crude to the Red Sea, but it is already running near full capacity due to recent Houthi attacks on shipping. 

The UAE’s Fujairah Pipeline, with 1.8 million barrels per day capacity, is also heavily used, leaving little to spare.

Iran’s Goreh-Jask Pipeline, designed for 300,000 barrels per day, is barely operational, having handled just 70,000 barrels per day before shutting down in late 2024.

If the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, the EIA said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could only reroute about 2.6 million barrels per day — far less than the 20 million that normally passes through.

Given that the economies of most Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, rely heavily on oil exports, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would deal a severe blow to their economic stability, according to Ajaka. “The extent of the financial damage would hinge on how long the strait remains blocked, with prolonged disruptions likely triggering budget deficits across the region,” he said.

For energy-hungry Asian economies, a blockade would be catastrophic.




This image grab taken from a video provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard official website via SEPAH News on July 20, 2019, shows Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boarding the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz. (AFP/File)

“This narrow stretch carries nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil. Its closure would cripple global trade routes, choke energy supplies and slam the brakes on economic growth from Asia to Europe,” said Al-Ansari.

China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly half its crude imports. India, Japan, and South Korea would face severe shortages, forcing emergency releases from strategic reserves. Global shipping costs would explode as tankers would need to take longer routes around Africa.

“The first Asian economy to be affected by any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be China,” said Ajaka. “If the repercussions of the strait’s closure spill over into multiple economies, it could lead to a global recession — posing another challenge in terms of how to revive the global economy.”

The US is less vulnerable, importing only half a million barrels per day from the Gulf, equivalent to 7 percent of total US imports. But it would still suffer from skyrocketing global prices.

Al-Ansari emphasized that the crisis is not merely about oil: “It is about the fragile balance that keeps markets stable and societies moving.”

Iran has historically threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but has never done so. In a recent op-ed for Arab News, Abdulaziz Sager, founder and chair of the Gulf Research Center, said a full closure “would harm Iran’s own economy given that it relies on the waterway for its oil exports.”




This combination of file pictures created on July 22, 2019, shows Iranian soldiers taking part in a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019 (up) and the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer (LHD 4) receiving a vertical replenishment-at-sea in the Arabian Sea on July 14, 2019. (AFP/US Navy/Keypher)

Despite Iran’s heavy reliance on the waterway, Behnam Saeedi, a member of the parliament’s National Security Committee presidium, was quoted by Mehr news agency on Thursday as saying a blockade remained on the table.

“Iran has numerous options to respond to its enemies and uses such options based on what the situation is,” he said. “Closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the potential options for Iran.”

Mehr later quoted another lawmaker, Ali Yazdikhah, as saying Iran would continue to allow free shipping in the strait and in the Gulf so long as its vital national interests were not at risk.

“If the US officially and operationally enters the war in support of the Zionists (Israel), it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressuring the US and Western countries to disrupt their oil trade’s ease of transit,” said Yazdikhah.




An image grab taken from a video released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on July 18, 2019, reportedly shows the Panamanian-flagged tanker Riah, that was detained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, in the highly sensitive Strait of Hormuz. (AFP/File)

However, it is not a decision Iran would take lightly.

“If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will undoubtedly lose economically and militarily,” said Ajaka. “Any country that wants to wage war will lose if it does not have foreign currency reserves, as war depletes these reserves — preventing it from making the decision to close the strait.

“The only circumstances that might lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz are if it feels its regime is on the verge of collapse,” he added.




Iranian troops take part in a military drill in Makran beach on the Gulf of Oman, near the Hormuz Strait. (Iranian Army handout via AFP/File)

As Iran already seems to have been backed into a corner, there is every chance it could take this final leap. As Al-Ansari said: “Iran is already economically crippled and is facing an existential reality. The scenario of closing the strait should never be ruled out.”

Past incidents have shown the global impact of regional events. In 2019, attacks on Saudi tankers near Fujairah and the Abqaiq drone strikes briefly cut 5 percent of the global oil supply. World powers, therefore, have a major interest in keeping the strait open.

“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would prompt military intervention by the US and the UK,” said Ajaka.

On June 17, US officials informed The New York Times that Iran had positioned missiles and military assets for potential strikes on American bases in the Middle East if the US entered the conflict. 




The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Strait of Hormuz as an MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter lifts off from the flight deck on November 19, 2019. (AFP/File)

Other officials also warned Iran could resort to mining the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an attack — a strategy designed to trap US warships in the Persian Gulf.

In the event of a blockade, Ajaka suggested Western and Asian nations would likely tap into strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate immediate shortages.

However, he added this would only provide temporary relief, as non-OPEC countries have already maxed out their production capacity, leaving OPEC members as the only potential source of additional supply.

“If the strait is closed and oil prices rise, oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, may resort to halting production cuts and instead increase output to curb the sharp rise in prices,” he said.

“One other possible measure would be for the US to ease restrictions on oil-producing countries like Venezuela to increase oil supply in the market.”

Nevertheless, Ajaka said: “The core position of oil — and the fundamental reason for the necessity of security in the Middle East — is that the Arabian Gulf must remain the ultimate guarantor.”

 

 


Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada

Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada

Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada

SYDNEY/LONDON: Global stocks fell on Friday after US President Donald Trump ramped up his tariff war against Canada, leaving Europe squarely in the firing line, sparking a modest investor push into safe havens like gold, while bitcoin hit a new record high.

The Canadian dollar fell after Trump issued a letter late on Thursday that stated a 35 percent tariff rate on all imports from Canada would apply from August 1, adding the EU would receive a letter by Friday.

The US president, whose global wave of tariffs has upended businesses and policymaking, floated a blanket 15 percent or 20 percent tariff rate on other countries, a step up from the current 10 percent baseline rate.

This week he surprised Brazil, which has a trade surplus with the US, with duties of 50 percent, and hit copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.

Aside from pockets of volatility in target currencies, stocks or commodities, markets have offered little in the way of reaction to the onslaught, leaving the VIX volatility index at its lowest since late February.

In Europe, the STOXX 600, which has risen 2.2 percent this week, fell 0.7 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 0.6 percent, pointing to a retreat from this week’s record highs at the open later.

“The market is becoming a bit numb to these (tariff) announcements, and perhaps it’s not until we see hard data showing an impact that we (will) start to see the market reacting,” City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

“Obviously, we’re getting more information through that does bring with it an element of clarity. Because there is so much uncertainty, there is still this idea that Trump could be open to negotiation, nothing feels ‘final’ still,” she said.

The dollar rose 0.3 percent against the Canadian dollar to $1.3695. The euro, which has lost nearly 1 percent in value since the start of July, was down 0.2 percent at $1.1683.

Earlier in the week, Trump pushed back his tariff deadline of July 9 to August 1 for many trading partners to allow more time for negotiations, but broadened his trade war, setting new rates for a number of countries, including allies Japan and South Korea, along with a 50 percent tariff on copper.

Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the tariff rate of 35 percent on Canada was not as bad as feared because most of the imports are still subject to exemptions under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

“Now the tariff rate on imports from the EU ... That’s what we don’t know as yet,” Capurso said. “If you get something similar to (the US-China trade war in April), that’s going to be very destabilising.”

Wall Street indexes posted record closing highs on Thursday as AI chip maker Nvidia made history, bagging a market valuation above $4 trillion.

Gold rose for a third day in a row, up 0.6 percent to $3,342 an ounce, bringing gains for July so far to 1.2 percent. Treasuries got less of a safe-haven boost, as investor concern about the fragility of long-term US government finances prompted a selloff that pushed yields up.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose 3 basis points to 4.38 percent, adding to Thursday’s rise on the back of data that showed jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week.

The yen, which also typically behaves like a safe-haven, has been steadily weakening as the prospects dim for a US-Japan trade deal. The dollar was up 0.4 percent on Friday at 146.76 yen , set for a weekly gain of 1.6 percent, the biggest this year.

Bitcoin jumped 3.8 percent to $117,880, the highest on record.

Investors will be watching second-quarter corporate earnings next week to gauge the impact of Trump’s tariffs from April 2. JPMorgan Chase is due to release results on Tuesday, essentially kicking off the reporting period.


World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says

World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says

World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says

VIENNA: The world oil market may be tighter than it appears despite a supply and demand balance pointing to a surplus, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as refineries ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.

The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, up 300,000 bpd from the previous forecast. World demand will rise by just 700,000 bpd, it said, implying a sizeable surplus.

Despite making those changes, the IEA said that rising refinery processing rates aimed at meeting summer travel and power-generation demand were tightening the market and the latest supply hike from OPEC+ announced on Saturday had not had much effect.

“The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter fundamentals,” the agency said in a monthly report.

“Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances.”

Earlier this week, ministers and executives from OPEC nations and bosses of Western oil majors said the output increases are not leading to higher inventories, showing that markets are thirsty for more oil.

Next year, the IEA sees demand growth averaging 720,000 bpd, some 20,000 bpd lower than previously thought, with supply growth rising by 1.3 million bpd, also implying a surplus.


Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?

Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?

Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?

RIYADH: Tesla’s arrival in Saudi Arabia signals a turning point in the Kingdom’s ambitious electric mobility strategy, with close to half of its citizens now open to purchasing an electric vehicle.

With a target of 30 percent EV adoption by 2030 under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has gained a powerful ally in Tesla — one that could accelerate progress through competitive pricing, charging infrastructure investments, and potential local manufacturing deals.

This move not only brings one of the world’s most recognizable EV brands to Saudi consumers but also supports the nation’s broader push toward sustainable mobility.

This is also set to be boosted with the launch of the Kingdom’s first homegrown EV brand, Ceer, with production set to begin in 2026.

In an interview with Arab News, Alessandro Tricamo, partner at Oliver Wyman’s transportation and services practice, noted that while EVs currently make up just over 1 percent of vehicle sales, consumer interest is rising. “Nearly half of Saudi citizens say they are considering an EV purchase in the coming years,” he said.

A win-win proposition 

Tesla’s arrival comes at a critical time for the company and the Kingdom alike. The American automaker, facing increasing competition from Chinese rivals like BYD and declining sales in traditional markets, sees Saudi Arabia as a promising new frontier. 

Tricamo explained: “Tesla’s entry into the Saudi market is potentially a significant win-win situation. With its leadership position increasingly challenged by BYD and other manufacturers — and with sales declining in the US and Europe — Tesla is looking to open up new markets.”

He added: “Saudi Arabia, while investing heavily in public transport and mass transit, remains a car-centric country where Tesla’s brand is resonant. This makes the Kingdom a promising growth opportunity for the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer).”

Tesla’s Riyadh showroom and service center, along with pop-up stores in Jeddah and Dammam, introduce Saudi drivers to the Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck — a clear signal of the company’s long-term commitment to the region.

Alessandro Tricamo, partner at Oliver Wyman’s transportation and services practice. Supplied

Fixing infrastructure gap

One of the biggest roadblocks to mass EV adoption is Saudi Arabia’s underdeveloped charging network. With just 101 public charging stations in 2024 — behind the UAE’s 261 — range anxiety remains a major deterrent for potential buyers.

Oliver Wyman’s Tricamo underscored the urgency of infrastructure expansion, saying: “Expanding the Kingdom’s charging infrastructure is arguably the single most critical factor in accelerating EV adoption. As of 2024, Saudi Arabia has around 100 public charging stations, primarily concentrated in Riyadh.”

He added: “For comparison, the UAE has nearly three times as many, despite having only a third of Saudi Arabia’s population.”

To address this, Saudi authorities are rolling out high-speed charging stations along key routes, including the 900 km Riyadh-Makkah corridor, which currently lacks any charging points. Tesla’s planned Supercharger network — open to other brands — could be a game changer if deployed swiftly.

However, rapid infrastructure expansion brings its own risks. Taline Vahanian, placement leader at Marsh UAE, an insurance broker and risk adviser, warned that high-speed charging stations, by their nature, handle significant electrical loads and integrate advanced digital control systems.

“This exposure brings a range of liability risks — from electrical malfunctions that might result in fires or physical injuries to property damage caused by system failures or cyberattacks,” she told Arab News, adding: “Additionally, integrating an array of new charging stations into an evolving power grid presents operational challenges such as voltage fluctuations, grid stability issues, and the necessity for specialized, regular maintenance.” 

A new EV manufacturing hub?

Lucid is majority owned by the Public Investment Fund. Getty

While Tesla makes its retail debut, Lucid Motors — backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund — is already establishing local production, with a Jeddah factory set to manufacture thousands of EVs annually. This positions the Kingdom as a potential regional EV production hub, reducing reliance on imports. 

Vahanian highlighted the challenges of local production, saying: “On the supply chain front, vulnerabilities arise as the industry remains heavily dependent on imported components and critical raw materials. These dependencies are susceptible to international trade disruptions or logistical bottlenecks.”

She added: “Harmonizing standards and streamlining certification processes on the regulatory front will be crucial; any delays or misalignments with international standards could disrupt production schedules and cause cascading delays.”

Can EVs survive Saudi summers? 

Extreme temperatures pose another major challenge for EV adoption. Lithium-ion batteries degrade faster in heat, raising concerns about long-term durability. 

Tesla and Lucid are countering this with advanced liquid cooling systems and heat-resistant materials, while Saudi researchers are exploring solid-state batteries for better performance.

Vahanian emphasized the risks, saying: “In Saudi Arabia’s harsh desert climate, battery safety is a paramount concern. EV batteries rely on sophisticated thermal management systems, yet extreme ambient temperatures can accelerate degradation and — even in rare cases — trigger thermal runaway or fire incidents.”

She added that compounding this risk is the “nascent state” of the charging infrastructure, which must contend with sand, dust, and persistent heat stress — all of which elevates the possibility of technical failures and unexpected downtime.

Taline Vahanian, placement leader at Marsh UAE. Supplied

Tricamo offered a more optimistic view: “I believe the impact of extreme heat on EV performance is often overstated. While high temperatures can pose challenges for batteries, such conditions are limited to certain periods, and battery technology is improving rapidly to support performance across a wide temperature range.”

He added: “EVs have been operating in the region for several years with virtually no performance issues. A more relevant environmental concern may be sand and dust, which can affect charging stations and equipment. But even here, mitigation measures are relatively straightforward and already well understood.”

Insurance and cost

Another hurdle is the higher cost of insuring EVs compared to traditional vehicles.

Vahanian explained that unlike traditional cars powered by internal combustion engines, EVs rely on sophisticated battery systems, state-of-the-art electronics, and specialized components that require expert handling.

“When collisions or mishaps occur, repairing these systems can be significantly pricier than conventional repairs. Limited availability of repair facilities and trained technicians — particularly in emerging markets like KSA — exacerbates these costs,” she said.

The Marsh UAE official added that insurers are adapting but warns of potential premium hikes: “Insurance companies, which traditionally set premiums based on anticipated claim payouts and repair costs, are therefore likely to face higher liabilities. In anticipation, we can expect a recalibration of premiums, reflecting a more accurate risk profile and the amplified repair costs associated with EVs.”

Vahanian went on to say: “Higher repair costs inevitably feed into the economics of risk assessment for insurers. As claims tend to rise with the complexity and expense of EV repairs, premium rates may correspondingly increase to maintain the insurers’ financial stability.”

She noted that higher EV insurance premiums could have a dual effect — while buyers are attracted by lower fuel costs and environmental benefits, steep insurance rates might weaken their appeal, particularly given the already high upfront costs.

The road to 2030

Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia’s EV revolution is undeniably gaining momentum. Tricamo stressed that government intervention will be crucial. “To accelerate the transition, targeted government intervention will be essential — both to level the playing field and to fast-track the decarbonization of mobility,” he said.

Tricamo added that petrol vehicles remain significantly cheaper to operate in the region due to low fuel prices and a lack of EV incentives, while limited charging infrastructure further hinders widespread adoption.

Vahanian echoed this sentiment, calling for collaboration between policymakers and insurers, saying: “By collaborating with insurance providers, policymakers can create schemes that provide favorable premium rates or bundled services, thereby alleviating consumer concerns and accelerating market penetration.”

Full speed ahead 

With Tesla’s market entry, Lucid’s local production, and government-backed infrastructure investments, Saudi Arabia is fast-tracking its EV transition. Yet hurdles like charging deserts, affordability, battery resilience, and insurance costs must be overcome to reach the 30 percent adoption goal.


Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions

Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions

Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions

LONDON: Oil prices rose by around 1 percent on Friday as investors weighed a tight prompt market against a potential large surplus this year forecast by the IEA, while US tariffs and possible further sanctions on Russia were also in focus.

Brent crude futures were up 76 cents, or 1.11 percent, at $69.40 a barrel as of 2:53 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 82 cents, or 1.23 percent, to $67.39 a barrel.

At those levels, Brent was headed for a 1.6 percent gain on the week, while WTI was up around 0.6 percent from last week’s close.

The IEA said on Friday the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, with demand supported by peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power-generation.

Front-month September Brent contracts were trading at a $1.11 premium to October futures at 2:53 p.m. Saudi time.

“Civilians, be they in the air or on the road, are showing a healthy willingness to travel,” PVM analyst John Evans said in a note on Friday.

Prompt tightness notwithstanding, the IEA boosted its forecast for supply growth this year, while trimming its outlook for growth in demand, implying a market in surplus.

“OPEC+ will quickly and significantly turn up the oil tap. There is a threat of significant oversupply. In the short term, however, oil prices remain supported,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Further adding support to the short-term outlook, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia will compensate for overproduction against its OPEC+ quota this year in August-September.

Longer term, however, rival forecasting agency OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 to 2029 because of slowing Chinese demand, the group said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday.

Both benchmark futures contracts lost more than 2 percent on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of Trump’s evolving tariff policy on global economic growth and oil demand.

“Prices have recouped some of this decline after President Trump said he plans to make a ‘major’ statement on Russia on Monday. This could leave the market nervous over the potential for further sanctions on Russia,” ING analysts wrote in a client note.

Trump has expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress on peace with Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

The European Commission is set to propose a floating Russian oil price cap this week as part of a new draft sanctions package, but Russia said it has “good experience” of tackling and minimizing such challenges. 


Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April

Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April
Updated 10 July 2025
Follow

Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April

Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil trade surplus with fellow Gulf Cooperation Council countries jumped by more than 200 percent in April 2025, driven by a sharp rise in re-exports and strengthening regional economic ties.

According to the latest figures released by the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom posted a trade surplus of SR3.51 billion ($935 million) with GCC nations during the month, compared to just SR1.16 billion in April 2024 — a year-on-year increase of 203.2 percent.

The total value of non-oil trade, which includes re-exports, between Saudi Arabia and the GCC bloc reached SR18.03 billion in April, reflecting a robust 41.3 percent growth from SR12.76 billion in the same month last year.

This momentum is attributed to the accelerated pace of regional economic integration, supported by strategic initiatives such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and similar diversification programs across the Gulf. These frameworks aim to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons by fostering growth in sectors like logistics, finance, tourism, and manufacturing.

Non-oil exports — encompassing both national products and re-exported goods — saw a notable rise of 55 percent year on year to SR10.77 billion. Within this category, re-exports surged by 81 percent to SR7.74 billion, highlighting Saudi Arabia’s growing role as a regional re-export hub. National-origin exports also rose by 13.3 percent, totaling SR3.03 billion.

Imports from GCC countries also registered an increase, climbing to SR7.26 billion in April — a 25.2 percent rise compared to SR5.80 billion in the previous year.

Among individual member states, the UAE continued to dominate Saudi Arabia’s regional trade portfolio, accounting for SR13.53 billion — or 75.1 percent — of the Kingdom’s total non-oil trade with the GCC. Bahrain followed with SR1.8 billion (10 percent), while Oman recorded SR1.45 billion (8.1 percent). Kuwait and Qatar contributed SR819.9 million (4.5 percent) and SR422.1 million (2.3 percent), respectively.

The data reflects not only Saudi Arabia’s growing non-oil export capacity but also a broader regional shift toward more diversified, interconnected Gulf economies.