Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

Iraqis carry placards and wave the Palestinian flag during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 31 October 2023
Follow

Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

  • American troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under militia attack, prompting retaliation
  • PM Al-Sudani has condemned attacks, but analysts question his ability to rein in the militias

IRBIL, IRAQI KURDISTAN: With its coffers swelled by high oil prices and its politicians laying enmities aside, Iraq looked all set to enjoy a period of stability not seen in decades. However, the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in early October could undo this modest progress, especially if it inflames the sensitive regional situation and escalates into a wider conflict.

Various Iran-backed militias across the Middle East have threatened to attack American interests in the region if Washington becomes openly involved in Israel’s ground war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These militias have already attacked bases hosting American troops in Iraq and Syria with rockets and drones in recent days.

In an analysis for the Arab Center Washington DC, Rend Al-Rahim, a former Iraqi ambassador to the US, wrote: “In the space of just over two weeks, Israel’s war on Gaza has upended Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s year-long careful balancing of Iraq’s foreign relations and his efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.”

The US has ordered the departure of its “non-emergency” personnel from Iraq and warned Americans not to travel to the country due to the elevated threat level. The UK has also temporarily withdrawn staff from its embassy in Baghdad and advised Britons against all travel to Iraq, aside from strictly essential trips to Iraqi Kurdistan.




US Navy’s F/A-18 Super Hornets, attached Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 8, prepare for flight operations on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN) 78 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

An estimated 2,500 US troops are at present based in Iraq under authorization from Baghdad, advising and training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their ongoing fight against Daesh. Another 900 are deployed in northeast Syria, partnered with local Kurdish-led forces in their own fight against remnants of the extremist group.

Since Oct. 17, US troops have come under rocket and drone attack at Iraq’s western Ain Al-Asad airbase, Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Harir airfield, and southern Syria’s Al-Tanf garrison. Twenty-one US personnel suffered “minor injuries,” but were able to promptly resume duties, while one civilian contractor died after suffering a cardiac incident during one of these attacks.

On Thursday, the US launched “precision self-defense strikes” against two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its local affiliates. Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, described the strikes as a response to “a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.”

These groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, and others, have threatened to step up attacks if Israel launches a major ground war against Hamas in Gaza, increasing the risk of US troops being severely injured or even killed and raising the possibility of the US military retaliating more forcefully. Such an escalation could potentially ignite an uncontrollable conflagration that could plunge Iraq back into chaos and war.

Al-Sudani has condemned the recent attacks on US troops in Iraq, branding them “unacceptable,” and has ordered state security forces to pursue the perpetrators.




An Iraqi boy carries a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)

Many of the Iran-backed militias in Iraq are part of the country’s state-sanctioned paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, some of whose leaders are in Al-Sudani’s government. Despite this, Al-Sudani has little to no control over these armed groups.

“Reports are that he (Al-Sudani) warned the pro-Iran groups that if they get directly involved in Gaza, the US and Israel would retaliate against them in Iraq,” Joel Wing, author of the blog, Musings on Iraq, told Arab News. “Other than that, he is powerless to constrain them.”

Indeed, shortly after the Israel-Hamas war began, Iraqi politician Hadi Al-Amiri, leader of the Iran-linked Badr Organization, which constitutes a large part of the PMF, said: “If they (the US) intervene, we would intervene ... we will consider all American targets legitimate.”




Iraqi forces and Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) advance towards the city of Al-Qaim, in western Anbar province, on the Syrian border as they fight against remnant pockets of Daesh on November 1, 2017. (AFP)

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, similarly believes Al-Sudani’s government would “largely be a bystander” in the event of a significant escalation, with Tehran and Washington “driving events on the ground” rather than Baghdad.

“Iraq’s diplomatic maneuvering is likely to remain very critical of Israel and even the US at times, though it doesn’t yet seem like it’ll push US troops to leave the country,” Bohl told Arab News.

INNUMBERS

  • 42m Population of Iraq.
  • 11m Size of labor force.
  • 14.19% Total unemployment rate.
  • 27.2% Youth unemployment rate.
  • 27% Public debt as a percent of GDP.

One powerful Shiite figure and militia leader who has repeatedly clashed with pro-Iran factions in Iraq is Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has already brought his followers out in force to condemn Israel. Analysts believe he may seek to leverage the present crisis to reenter politics and challenge his Iran-backed rivals.

Wing says Al-Sadr, like other political leaders in Iraq, is “hoping to exploit” the crisis in Gaza for his own ends. Indeed, the street protests he has organized in recent days potentially mark the beginning of a campaign ahead of elections in December.

Bohl agrees it seems likely that Al-Sadr will use the crisis for “at least marginal political gain.” However, he is unsure whether the issue will bring Al-Sadr back into politics since the “factors that drove him out” in the first place have nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“On the other hand, if there is a major regional escalation that involves Iraq, Al-Sadr could be one of the Shiite politicians Iraq would look to for leadership as it accounted for how the country was pulled into the conflict to start with,” Bohl said.




Members of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim Al-Nujaba movement wave the Palestinian flag during a rally in Baghdad on October 8, 2023, to express their support of the “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” which was launched by Hamas militants the previous day against Israel from the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

The risk of a broader conflict is considerable. Wing says some Iraqi groups are already discussing “escalating their ongoing attacks” if a ground war begins in Gaza. He predicts such an escalation would “probably mean rocket and drone strikes on the US embassy” in Baghdad.

“I’ve read that factions are split about whether to get directly involved in the conflict. And if they did, it would be with Hezbollah in Lebanon and not with Hamas in Gaza,” he said.

Bohl believes that while it remains a “potent possibility” that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza could result in significant instability in Iraq, “there are different drivers to consider.”

“If such militias escalate against the US too much, they could trigger a regional US reaction to Iran and its proxies that would not be in Iran’s interest,” he said.

“I largely expect they’ll engage in harassment and one-off attacks rather than mass attacks designed to cause significant casualties.”




Syrians wave flags and lift a placard depicting (L to R) Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally marking the yearly Al-Quds (Jerusalem) day, at the Al-Nayrab camp for Palestinian refugees east of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo, on May 7, 2021. (AFP)

Both analysts believe the latest attacks are intended to demonstrate the capabilities of these militias to strike US forces rather than to actually inflict casualties on them.

Wing summed up the current attacks as “completely symbolic,” explaining that if these militias wanted to launch “real assaults to do damage,” they would “use dozens of rockets and drones.”

“The ongoing attacks are just shooting a few rockets and using one, two drones,” he said. “If they caused some serious US casualties, Washington would retaliate, and I don’t think the Iraqi factions want that.”

For Bohl, these are “harassing attacks on US targets designed to gain political legitimacy and signal to the US and Israel the risks of escalation by their side.”




Syrian air defense reportedly intercepting an Israeli missile in the sky over the Syrian capital Damascus on February 24, 2020. (AFP)

In February 2021, a militia rocket attack targeting the American base in Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Irbil International Airport killed a civilian contractor. The US retaliated against Iran-backed militias in Syria instead of Iraq, likely to avoid destabilizing the situation in Iraq through tit-for-tat exchanges of fire.

It is unclear whether that was the goal of Thursday’s retaliatory strikes in Syria or if the US would consider retaliation within Iraq in the future.

“I think it completely depends upon the situation, such as where the attack takes place and the nature of the US casualties,” Wing said. “The bigger the death toll of US soldiers, the bigger Washington’s response will be.”

He added: “If a lot of Americans get killed, you could expect US retaliatory strikes across Syria and Iraq. If one or two get killed, the US would probably hit an ammo dump of some Iraqi faction.”




An Iraqi supporter of the Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces walks past a poster depicting late Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (R) and Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, in the capital Baghdad on December 30, 2020, ahead of the first anniversary of their killing in a US drone strike. (AFP)

Bohl also believes future US retaliatory strikes will “remain proportional and focused on the origins of the attacks” rather than “a comprehensive campaign” targeting Iran’s proxies across the region.

“But this would change if the US believed Iran was preparing for a region-wide escalation, at which point the US would likely try to prevent such an escalation with a more thorough pre-emptive campaign.”

Looking to the future, Al-Rahim, the former Iraqi diplomat and analyst, said: “What is certain is that the renewed strength of hardliners in Iraq will translate into increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and foreign policy choices.”

She expects Tehran’s regional calculations to “determine the scope and modality of belligerence by its Iraqi allies, leading to greater pressure” on Al-Sudani and his government.

 


Lebanon says Israeli strike kills five, wounds 10

Updated 3 sec ago
Follow

Lebanon says Israeli strike kills five, wounds 10

The Israeli strike on Masnaa Road resulted in a preliminary toll of five deaths

BEIRUT: Lebanon said an Israeli strike on the country’s east on Thursday killed at least five people, in the latest attack despite a November ceasefire in a war with militant group Hezbollah.

“The Israeli strike on Masnaa Road resulted in a preliminary toll of five deaths and ten injuries,” the Lebanese health ministry said in a statement. The state-run National News Agency reported that the strike hit a vehicle in the area, near a border crossing with Syria.

The reported strike came as Lebanon’s government was discussing Hezbollah’s disarmament.

US envoy hails ‘historic’ Lebanon decision on Hezbollah disarmament

Updated 10 min 11 sec ago
Follow

US envoy hails ‘historic’ Lebanon decision on Hezbollah disarmament

  • “This week’s Cabinet resolutions finally put into motion the ‘One Nation, One Army’ solution for Lebanon,” Barrack said

BEIRUT: US envoy Tom Barrack said on Thursday Lebanon’s government had taken a “historic” decision this week by moving to disarm Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which Washington has pushed for.


In a post on X, Barrack congratulated Lebanese leaders “for making the historic, bold, and correct decision this week to begin fully implementing” a November ceasefire which ended more than a year of hostilities between Hezbollah and neighboring Israel, and stipulated that weapons in Lebanon be restricted to government agencies only.

“This week’s Cabinet resolutions finally put into motion the ‘One Nation, One Army’ solution for Lebanon. We stand behind the Lebanese people,” Barrack said.


The Paris office of Israeli airline El Al is vandalized with graffiti

Updated 33 min 50 sec ago
Follow

The Paris office of Israeli airline El Al is vandalized with graffiti

  • Red paint and the words “El Al genocide airline” were discovered Thursday morning on the door outside the airline’s office
  • The airline said it was handling the matter with the “utmost gravity”

PARIS: The Israeli airline El Al said Thursday that its Paris office was vandalized with anti-Israel graffiti, calling the act a “deeply disturbing” incident as tensions between France and Israel run high.

Red paint and the words “El Al genocide airline” were discovered Thursday morning on the door outside the airline’s office in the center of the French capital. El Al said that no one was in the office at the time of the incident and that no one was harmed.

The airline said it was handling the matter with the “utmost gravity” and working in close coordination with authorities in France and Israel. El Al added it “unequivocally condemns all forms of violence, particularly those driven by hatred,” and said its planes “proudly” display the Israeli flag.

French authorities announced that they opened opened an investigation into building “degradation” with a racist or ethnically prejudicial intent.

Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev condemned the act and blamed the policies of French President Emmanuel Macron. “Today it’s El Al, tomorrow it’s Air France,” she wrote on social media. “When President Macron makes announcements that give gifts to Hamas, this is the result.”

The incident comes amid diplomatic friction following Macron’s pledge last month to recognize a Palestinian state — a move welcomed by some European allies but strongly opposed by Israel.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry also condemned what it called an antisemitic attack and urged the French government to ensure the safety of El Al staff and offices and to bring the perpetrators to justice.

In May, several Jewish sites across Paris were defaced with green paint, including the Shoah Memorial, three synagogues and a Jewish restaurant.

France is home to Western Europe’s largest Jewish population, with an estimated 500,000 Jews — approximately 1 percent of the national population.

In recent years, antisemitic incidents have surged, with a sharp increase reported in 2023 after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in Israel. These include physical assaults, threats, vandalism, and harassment, prompting alarm among Jewish communities and leaders.


GHF aid distribution sites in Gaza becoming ‘laboratories of cruelty,’ says medical charity

Updated 07 August 2025
Follow

GHF aid distribution sites in Gaza becoming ‘laboratories of cruelty,’ says medical charity

  • Scathing new report claims locations centers of ‘orchestrated killing’

LONDON: Doctors Without Borders has accused a controversial aid initiative in Gaza of enabling the systematic targeting and killing of civilians, it was reported on Thursday.

In a scathing new report, the medical charity — also known by its French acronym MSF— said aid distribution centers run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation had become sites of “orchestrated killing.”

Raquel Ayora, one of the charity’s general directors, said: “In MSF’s nearly 54 years of operations, rarely have we seen such levels of systematic violence against unarmed civilians.

“The GHF distribution sites masquerading as ‘aid’ have morphed into a laboratory of cruelty. This must stop now.”

The group is calling for GHF’s operations to be scrapped immediately and replaced with a UN-led system. It has urged governments and donors to “suspend all financial and political support for the GHF.”

In a report by Sky News, the channel contacted both the GHF and the Israel Defense Forces for comment. In an interview on Wednesday, IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani dismissed the allegations, claiming: “I think that is completely false,” and described some reports of shootings as “fake news.”

Between June 7 and July 24, MSF says it treated 1,380 people wounded near GHF aid sites at two of its clinics.

Among the injured were 71 children, 25 of them under the age of 15. The charity said 28 people were dead on arrival.

Among the cases were an 8-year-old girl shot in the chest, and a 12-year-old boy hit in the abdomen. The charity described several injuries as precise and deliberate.

“The distinct patterns and anatomical precision of these injuries strongly suggests the intentional targeting of people within and around the distribution sites, rather than accidental or indiscriminate fire,” the report stated.

Gunshot wounds recorded at MSF’s Al-Mawasi Clinic showed 11 percent struck victims in the head or neck, while 19 percent were to the torso. In Khan Younis, injuries to the lower limbs were more common.

One patient, Mohammed Riad Tabasi, said: “We’re being slaughtered. I’ve been injured maybe 10 times. I saw it with my own eyes, about 20 corpses around me; all of them shot in the head (and) in the stomach.”

The report also documented 196 injuries caused by stampedes or chaos during aid distribution. One woman died of likely asphyxiation in a crush. Others, MSF said, were beaten or robbed after receiving food.

The GHF took over much of Gaza’s aid provision in May after Israel ended an 11-week blockade. But the operation has drawn mounting international criticism. A previous Sky News investigation linked GHF-led aid drops to spikes in fatalities, and UN officials have condemned the system as “death traps.”

UN experts this week called the program “an utterly disturbing example of how humanitarian relief can be exploited for covert military and geopolitical agendas in serious breach of international law.”

They reiterated calls for Israel to restore access for UN agencies and humanitarian nongovernmental organizations.

MSF echoed the demand and directly urged the US to end its support.

“Despite the condemnations and calls for dismantling it, the global inaction to stop GHF is baffling,” said Aitor Zabalgogeazkoa, MSF’s emergency coordinator.

The IDF maintains that humanitarian access is not being obstructed. “There is no limit of aid getting into Gaza,” Shoshani said. “Every day, hundreds of trucks go into Gaza.”

Israeli officials argue the GHF model prevents supplies being stolen by Hamas and ensures they reach civilians directly. Steve Witkoff, the US’ special envoy to the Middle East, last week toured one of the sites.

“We’re putting up money to get the people fed,” US President Donald Trump declared at the same time.


Trump: Important that Middle Eastern countries join Abraham Accords

Updated 07 August 2025
Follow

Trump: Important that Middle Eastern countries join Abraham Accords

  • Efforts to expand the accords have been complicated by a soaring death toll and starvation in Gaza
  • The war in Gaza has provoked global anger

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said on Thursday it was important that Middle Eastern countries join the Abraham Accords, which aim to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel, saying it will ensure peace in the region.

“Now that the nuclear arsenal being ‘created’ by Iran has been totally OBLITERATED, it is very important to me that all Middle Eastern Countries join the Abraham Accords,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

As part of the Abraham Accords, signed during Trump’s first term in office, four Muslim-majority countries agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel after US mediation.

Efforts to expand the accords have been complicated by a soaring death toll and starvation in Gaza.

The war in Gaza, where local authorities say more than 60,000 people have died, has provoked global anger. Canada, France and the United Kingdom have announced plans in recent days to recognize an independent Palestinian state.

Trump’s administration is actively discussing with Azerbaijan the possibility of bringing that nation and some Central Asian allies into the Abraham Accords, hoping to deepen their existing ties with Israel, according to five sources with knowledge of the matter.