Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

Iraqis carry placards and wave the Palestinian flag during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)
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Updated 31 October 2023
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Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

  • American troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under militia attack, prompting retaliation
  • PM Al-Sudani has condemned attacks, but analysts question his ability to rein in the militias

IRBIL, IRAQI KURDISTAN: With its coffers swelled by high oil prices and its politicians laying enmities aside, Iraq looked all set to enjoy a period of stability not seen in decades. However, the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in early October could undo this modest progress, especially if it inflames the sensitive regional situation and escalates into a wider conflict.

Various Iran-backed militias across the Middle East have threatened to attack American interests in the region if Washington becomes openly involved in Israel’s ground war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These militias have already attacked bases hosting American troops in Iraq and Syria with rockets and drones in recent days.

In an analysis for the Arab Center Washington DC, Rend Al-Rahim, a former Iraqi ambassador to the US, wrote: “In the space of just over two weeks, Israel’s war on Gaza has upended Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s year-long careful balancing of Iraq’s foreign relations and his efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.”

The US has ordered the departure of its “non-emergency” personnel from Iraq and warned Americans not to travel to the country due to the elevated threat level. The UK has also temporarily withdrawn staff from its embassy in Baghdad and advised Britons against all travel to Iraq, aside from strictly essential trips to Iraqi Kurdistan.




US Navy’s F/A-18 Super Hornets, attached Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 8, prepare for flight operations on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN) 78 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

An estimated 2,500 US troops are at present based in Iraq under authorization from Baghdad, advising and training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their ongoing fight against Daesh. Another 900 are deployed in northeast Syria, partnered with local Kurdish-led forces in their own fight against remnants of the extremist group.

Since Oct. 17, US troops have come under rocket and drone attack at Iraq’s western Ain Al-Asad airbase, Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Harir airfield, and southern Syria’s Al-Tanf garrison. Twenty-one US personnel suffered “minor injuries,” but were able to promptly resume duties, while one civilian contractor died after suffering a cardiac incident during one of these attacks.

On Thursday, the US launched “precision self-defense strikes” against two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its local affiliates. Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, described the strikes as a response to “a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.”

These groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, and others, have threatened to step up attacks if Israel launches a major ground war against Hamas in Gaza, increasing the risk of US troops being severely injured or even killed and raising the possibility of the US military retaliating more forcefully. Such an escalation could potentially ignite an uncontrollable conflagration that could plunge Iraq back into chaos and war.

Al-Sudani has condemned the recent attacks on US troops in Iraq, branding them “unacceptable,” and has ordered state security forces to pursue the perpetrators.




An Iraqi boy carries a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)

Many of the Iran-backed militias in Iraq are part of the country’s state-sanctioned paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, some of whose leaders are in Al-Sudani’s government. Despite this, Al-Sudani has little to no control over these armed groups.

“Reports are that he (Al-Sudani) warned the pro-Iran groups that if they get directly involved in Gaza, the US and Israel would retaliate against them in Iraq,” Joel Wing, author of the blog, Musings on Iraq, told Arab News. “Other than that, he is powerless to constrain them.”

Indeed, shortly after the Israel-Hamas war began, Iraqi politician Hadi Al-Amiri, leader of the Iran-linked Badr Organization, which constitutes a large part of the PMF, said: “If they (the US) intervene, we would intervene ... we will consider all American targets legitimate.”




Iraqi forces and Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) advance towards the city of Al-Qaim, in western Anbar province, on the Syrian border as they fight against remnant pockets of Daesh on November 1, 2017. (AFP)

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, similarly believes Al-Sudani’s government would “largely be a bystander” in the event of a significant escalation, with Tehran and Washington “driving events on the ground” rather than Baghdad.

“Iraq’s diplomatic maneuvering is likely to remain very critical of Israel and even the US at times, though it doesn’t yet seem like it’ll push US troops to leave the country,” Bohl told Arab News.

INNUMBERS

  • 42m Population of Iraq.
  • 11m Size of labor force.
  • 14.19% Total unemployment rate.
  • 27.2% Youth unemployment rate.
  • 27% Public debt as a percent of GDP.

One powerful Shiite figure and militia leader who has repeatedly clashed with pro-Iran factions in Iraq is Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has already brought his followers out in force to condemn Israel. Analysts believe he may seek to leverage the present crisis to reenter politics and challenge his Iran-backed rivals.

Wing says Al-Sadr, like other political leaders in Iraq, is “hoping to exploit” the crisis in Gaza for his own ends. Indeed, the street protests he has organized in recent days potentially mark the beginning of a campaign ahead of elections in December.

Bohl agrees it seems likely that Al-Sadr will use the crisis for “at least marginal political gain.” However, he is unsure whether the issue will bring Al-Sadr back into politics since the “factors that drove him out” in the first place have nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“On the other hand, if there is a major regional escalation that involves Iraq, Al-Sadr could be one of the Shiite politicians Iraq would look to for leadership as it accounted for how the country was pulled into the conflict to start with,” Bohl said.




Members of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim Al-Nujaba movement wave the Palestinian flag during a rally in Baghdad on October 8, 2023, to express their support of the “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” which was launched by Hamas militants the previous day against Israel from the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

The risk of a broader conflict is considerable. Wing says some Iraqi groups are already discussing “escalating their ongoing attacks” if a ground war begins in Gaza. He predicts such an escalation would “probably mean rocket and drone strikes on the US embassy” in Baghdad.

“I’ve read that factions are split about whether to get directly involved in the conflict. And if they did, it would be with Hezbollah in Lebanon and not with Hamas in Gaza,” he said.

Bohl believes that while it remains a “potent possibility” that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza could result in significant instability in Iraq, “there are different drivers to consider.”

“If such militias escalate against the US too much, they could trigger a regional US reaction to Iran and its proxies that would not be in Iran’s interest,” he said.

“I largely expect they’ll engage in harassment and one-off attacks rather than mass attacks designed to cause significant casualties.”




Syrians wave flags and lift a placard depicting (L to R) Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally marking the yearly Al-Quds (Jerusalem) day, at the Al-Nayrab camp for Palestinian refugees east of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo, on May 7, 2021. (AFP)

Both analysts believe the latest attacks are intended to demonstrate the capabilities of these militias to strike US forces rather than to actually inflict casualties on them.

Wing summed up the current attacks as “completely symbolic,” explaining that if these militias wanted to launch “real assaults to do damage,” they would “use dozens of rockets and drones.”

“The ongoing attacks are just shooting a few rockets and using one, two drones,” he said. “If they caused some serious US casualties, Washington would retaliate, and I don’t think the Iraqi factions want that.”

For Bohl, these are “harassing attacks on US targets designed to gain political legitimacy and signal to the US and Israel the risks of escalation by their side.”




Syrian air defense reportedly intercepting an Israeli missile in the sky over the Syrian capital Damascus on February 24, 2020. (AFP)

In February 2021, a militia rocket attack targeting the American base in Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Irbil International Airport killed a civilian contractor. The US retaliated against Iran-backed militias in Syria instead of Iraq, likely to avoid destabilizing the situation in Iraq through tit-for-tat exchanges of fire.

It is unclear whether that was the goal of Thursday’s retaliatory strikes in Syria or if the US would consider retaliation within Iraq in the future.

“I think it completely depends upon the situation, such as where the attack takes place and the nature of the US casualties,” Wing said. “The bigger the death toll of US soldiers, the bigger Washington’s response will be.”

He added: “If a lot of Americans get killed, you could expect US retaliatory strikes across Syria and Iraq. If one or two get killed, the US would probably hit an ammo dump of some Iraqi faction.”




An Iraqi supporter of the Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces walks past a poster depicting late Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (R) and Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, in the capital Baghdad on December 30, 2020, ahead of the first anniversary of their killing in a US drone strike. (AFP)

Bohl also believes future US retaliatory strikes will “remain proportional and focused on the origins of the attacks” rather than “a comprehensive campaign” targeting Iran’s proxies across the region.

“But this would change if the US believed Iran was preparing for a region-wide escalation, at which point the US would likely try to prevent such an escalation with a more thorough pre-emptive campaign.”

Looking to the future, Al-Rahim, the former Iraqi diplomat and analyst, said: “What is certain is that the renewed strength of hardliners in Iraq will translate into increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and foreign policy choices.”

She expects Tehran’s regional calculations to “determine the scope and modality of belligerence by its Iraqi allies, leading to greater pressure” on Al-Sudani and his government.

 


Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

An injured man is treated in a hospital, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran, Iran, June 21, 2025. (REUTERS)
Updated 23 June 2025
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Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

  • US to strike Iran ”will be a legitimate target for our armed forces,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group said Monday.
The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists offered the figures, which covers the entirety of Iran. It said of those dead, it identified 380 civilians and 253 security force personnel being killed.
Human Rights Activists, which also provided detailed casualty figures during the 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, crosschecks local reports in the Islamic Republic against a network of sources it has developed in the country.
Iran has not been offering regular death tolls during the conflict and has minimized casualties in the past. On Saturday, Iran’s Health Ministry said some 400 Iranians had been killed and another 3,056 wounded in the Israeli strikes.

 

 

 


What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Updated 23 June 2025
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What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

  • Tehran says damage limited, no radiation leaks after Trump declares Iran’s uranium-enrichment capabilities destroyed
  • Assault involved 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft

DUBAI: Amid mounting speculation, the US launched air strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday.

The operation aimed to support Israel in its war against Iran — ongoing since June 13 — by crippling Tehran’s uranium enrichment capacity, according to Asharq News.

US President Donald Trump later announced that Iran’s uranium-enrichment abilities had been eliminated, warning Tehran against any “retaliatory response.” Tehran, however, described the damage as “limited” and dismissed any indications of radiation leaks.

US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the White House in Washington on June 21, 2025, following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. (POOL / AFP)

The US strikes included 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft, in an operation the top US general, General Dan Caine, said was named “Operation Midnight.”

Asharq News reported that the strikes targeted three critical nuclear facilities instrumental in Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear complex.

These sites span the entire fuel-enrichment chain — from raw uranium conversion, through enrichment, to the production of fuel and technical components for research reactors.

FASTFACTS:

• The first B-2 bomber was publicly displayed on Nov. 22, 1988, but its first flight was on July 17, 1989.

• The combat effectiveness of the B-2 was proved in the Balkans, where it was responsible for destroying 33 percent of all Serbian targets in the first eight weeks.

• In support of Operation Enduring Freedom, the B-2 flew one of its longest missions to date from Whiteman to Afghanistan and back.

• The B-2 completed its first-ever combat deployment in Iraq, flying 22 sorties and releasing more than 1.5 million pounds of munitions.

This handout satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on December 11, 2020 shows an overview of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the Iranian city of Qom. (AFP)

Fordo facility

Location and structure: Fordo is 30 kilometers northeast of Qom, embedded within a mountain at an altitude of approximately 1,750 m, with over 80 meters of rock and volcanic shielding — making it one of Iran’s most fortified sites.

Technical role: It houses two underground halls that can hold about 3,000 IR-1 centrifuges, enriching uranium up to 60 percent — a level nearing weapons -grade.

Strategic importance: It is a primary target in any military effort to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear military capability, due to its high capacity and protection.

This handout satellite image courtesy of Maxar Technologies shows Iran's shows Natanz nuclear research center in the central Iranian province of Isfahan. (AFP) 

Natanz reactor

Location and structure: Situated near Kashan in central Iran, partially buried under about 8 meters of earth with a 220meter-thick concrete roof, naturally shielded by surrounding mountainous terrain.

Technical role: Contains primary and experimental plants with over 14,000 centrifuges (IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4, IR-6), making it Iran’s main industrial enrichment hub.

Strategic importance: Responsible for producing most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium and plays a key role in centrifuge development.

This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

Isfahan nuclear complex

Location and structure: Located south of Isfahan on an arid plateau away from populated areas, it is neither buried nor heavily fortified.

Technical role: Includes a Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF); a research reactor fuel production plant; and a metallic fuel pelletizing plant, and three research reactors.

Strategic importance: Serves as the backbone of Iran’s nuclear research and production infrastructure, supplying both Natanz and Fordo.

The Pentagon used some of the world’s most advanced aircraft for Saturday’s strikes. The B-2 Spirit is a multi-role bomber capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions.

The bomber represents a major milestone in the US bomber modernization program. The B-2 brings massive firepower to bear anywhere on the globe through seemingly impenetrable defenses.

A B-2 bomber has a range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases. (Getty Images via AFP)

According to US officials, the bombers that carried out the Iran strikes flew for nearly 37 hours non-stop from its Missouri base, refueling in mid-air multiple times before striking in the early hours of Sunday.

A B-2 bomber offers several key advantages, primarily due to its stealth capabilities and global reach.

• A range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases.

• Stealth abilities such as flying-wing design and radar-absorbing materials that allow it to evade air defenses.

• It can carry both nuclear and conventional weapons, including the GBU‑57 bunker-buster bomb.

Initial reports quoted by Asharq News indicated that Fordo was hit with the GBU‑57, the most powerful US conventional bunker buster, designed for deeply buried targets like Fordo, which lies 90 meters underground. Fox News reported six bunker-busting bombs were dropped on Fordo, alongside approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired at Natanz and Isfahan.

The GBU‑57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ was designed by American military engineers to devastate deeply buried bunkers without radioactive fallout. It was the only nonnuclear weapon that could reach Iran’s hardest target.

• Weight: ~13,600 kg

• Length: 6.2 meters.

• Diameter: 0.8 meters.

• Explosive payload: 2,400 kg of high explosives.

• Guidance: GPS + inertial navigation.

* Penetration: Up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete or dense rock.

A Tomahawk cruise missile is a precision weapon that launches from ships, submarines and ground launchers and can strike targets precisely from a great distance, even in heavily defended airspace.

• Range: 1,250–2,500 km depending on variant.

• Speed: Subsonic (~880 km/h).

• Guidance: Inertial navigation, GPS, with some variants using terminal guidance (TERCOM, DSMAC).

• Warhead: ~450 kg conventional explosives.

• Launch platforms: Ships and submarines.

There has been a torrent of responses to the US move against Iran, Asharq News reported. President Trump declared the mission’s success, stating that the Fordo facility was “gone,” and Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment sites “completely and utterly destroyed.” Later on Sunday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes were an incredible and overwhelming success that have “obliterated Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.”

For its part, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted an official saying the nuclear sites had been evacuated in advance, and the damage was “not irreparable.” The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated there was “no risk of any radiation leak.” Iran emphasized its nuclear industry would not be halted.
 

 


Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

Updated 22 June 2025
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Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

  • European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities

BRUSSELS: Israel has rejected a European Union report saying it may be breaching human rights obligations in Gaza and the West Bank as a “moral and methodological failure,” according to a document seen by Reuters on Sunday.
The note, sent to EU officials ahead of a foreign ministers’ meeting on Monday, said the report by the bloc’s diplomatic service failed to consider Israel’s challenges and was based on inaccurate information.
“The Foreign Ministry of the State of Israel rejects the document ... and finds it to be a complete moral and methodological failure,” the note said, adding that it should be dismissed entirely.
European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities.

 

 


Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

Updated 22 June 2025
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Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

  • The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought
  • It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks

TEL AVIV: At least four Palestinians were killed on Sunday in an Israeli airstrike and 22 were wounded while waiting for humanitarian aid, according to a local hospital.

The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought. 

It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks.

Palestinian witnesses and health officials say Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire on crowds seeking desperately needed food, killing hundreds of people in recent weeks. 

The military says it has fired warning shots at people it said suspiciously approached its forces.

Separately, World Central Kitchen, the charity run by celebrity chef Jose Andres, said it had resumed the distribution of hot meals in Gaza for the first time in six weeks after shutting down because of Israel’s blockade, which was loosened last month amid fears of famine.

Also on Sunday, the Israeli military said that it had recovered the remains of three hostages held in the Gaza Strip. 

The military identified the remains as those of Yonatan Samerano, 21; Ofra Keidar, 70; and Shay Levinson, 19. 

All three were killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war. 

Hamas is still holding 50 hostages, fewer than half of them believed to be alive.

The military did not provide any details about the recovery operation, and it was unclear if the airstrike was related to it.

“The campaign to return the hostages continues consistently and is happening alongside the campaign against Iran,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

Kobi Samerano said in a Facebook post that his son’s remains were returned on what would have been Yonatan’s 23rd birthday.

Militants killed some 1,200 people, and abducted 251 people in the Oct. 7 attack. 

More than half the hostages have been returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals, eight have been rescued alive, and Israeli forces have recovered dozens of bodies.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 55,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which has said that women and children make up more than half of the dead. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The Hostages Families Forum, the main organization representing families of the hostages, has repeatedly called for a deal to release the remaining captives.

“Particularly against the backdrop of current military developments, we want to emphasize that bringing back the remaining 50 hostages is the key to achieving any sort of victory,” it said in a statement on Sunday.

Hamas has said it will only release the remaining hostages in return for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Netanyahu has rejected those terms, saying Israel will continue the war until all the hostages are returned and Hamas is defeated or disarmed and sent into exile. 

Even then, he has said Israel will maintain lasting control over Gaza and facilitate what he refers to as the voluntary emigration of much of its population, plans the Palestinians and others view as forcible expulsion.

The US, Qatar, and Egypt have been trying to broker a new ceasefire and hostage release after Israel ended a truce in March with a surprise wave of airstrikes. 

Those talks appear to have made little progress as Israel has expanded its air and ground offensive.


Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

Updated 22 June 2025
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Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

  • It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled
  • Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh group

At least 20 people were killed and dozens injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighborhood of Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday, health authorities and security sources said.

It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled in December. Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh (Islamic State). He entered the church, opened fire and then detonated his explosive vest, a ministry statement added.

A security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said two men were involved in the attack, including the one who blew himself up.

Daesh has been behind several attempted attacks on churches in Syria since Assad’s fall, but this was the first to succeed, another security source told Reuters.

Syria’s state news agency cited the health ministry as saying that 52 people were also injured in the blast.

A livestream from the site by Syria’s civil defense, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction from inside the church, including a bloodied floor and shattered pews and masonry.

Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who led the offensive against Assad before taking over in January for a transitional phase, has repeatedly said he will protect minorities.

“We unequivocally condemn the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus, Syria,” the Greek foreign ministry said in a statement.

“We demand that the Syrian transitional authorities take immediate action to hold those involved accountable and implement measures to guarantee the safety of Christian communities and all religious groups, allowing them to live without fear.”

Daesh had previously targeted religious minorities, including a major attack on Shiite pilgrims in Sayeda Zainab in 2016 — one of the most notorious bombings during Assad’s rule.

The latest assault underscores the group’s continued ability to exploit security gaps despite the collapse of its territorial control and years of counterterrorism efforts.