The United Nations faces uncertainty as Trump returns to US presidency

SYDNEY: Australia said Thursday it is “very confident” in the future of a US agreement to equip its navy with a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, after the Trump administration put the pact under review.

The 2021 AUKUS deal joins Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States in a multi-decade effort to balance China’s growing military might.

It aims to arm Australia with a fleet of cutting-edge, nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and provides for cooperation in developing an array of warfare technologies.

US President Donald Trump’s administration has advised Australia and the United Kingdom that it is reviewing AUKUS, a spokesperson for the Australian Department of Defense confirmed Thursday.

Defense Minister Richard Marles said he was “very confident” Australia would still get the American submarines.

“I think the review that’s been announced is not a surprise,” he told public broadcaster ABC.

“We’ve been aware of this for some time. We welcome it. It’s something which is perfectly natural for an incoming administration to do.”

Australia plans to acquire at least three Virginia Class submarines from the United States within 15 years, eventually manufacturing its own subs.

The US Navy has 24 Virginia-class vessels, which can carry cruise missiles, but American shipyards are struggling to meet production targets set at two new boats each year.

In the United States, critics question why Washington would sell nuclear-powered submarines to Australia without stocking its own military first.

Marles said boosting the US production of US Virginia Class submarines was a challenge.

“That’s why we are working very closely with the United States on seeing that happen. But that is improving,” he said.

Australia’s focus is on “sticking to this plan and on seeing it through,” Marles said.

He criticized Australia’s previous conservative government for “chopping and changing” its submarine choice.

On the eve of announcing its participation in AUKUS in 2021, the government of the time abruptly scrapped plans to buy diesel-powered submarines in a lucrative deal with France — infuriating Paris.

The AUKUS submarine program alone could cost the country up to $235 billion over the next 30 years, according to Australian government forecasts, a price tag that has contributed to criticism of the strategy.

Australia should conduct its own review of AUKUS, said former conservative prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, noting that Britain and now the United States had each decided to re-examine the pact.

“Australia, which has the most at stake, has no review. Our parliament to date has been the least curious and least informed. Time to wake up?” he posted on X.

Former Labour Party prime minister Paul Keating, a vehement critic of AUKUS, said the US review might “save Australia from itself.”

Australia should carve its own security strategy “rather than being dragged along on the coat tails of a fading Atlantic empire,” Keating said.

“The review makes clear that America keeps its national interests uppermost. But the concomitant question is: Why has Australia failed to do the same?”

Any US review of AUKUS carries a risk, particularly since it is a Biden-era initiative, said Euan Graham, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

But it is “fundamentally a good deal for the US,” he said, with Australia already investing cash to boost American submarine production as part of the agreement.

“I just do not think it is realistic for Australia, this far backed in, to have any prospect of withdrawing itself from AUKUS,” Graham said.

“I don’t think there is a Plan B that would meet requirements and I think it would shred Australia’s reputation fundamentally in a way that would not be recoverable.”

GENEVA: The number of people forcibly displaced from their homes worldwide has dropped slightly from a record high but remains “untenably high,” the United Nations said Thursday.

A record 123.2 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced from their homes at the end of 2024, said UNHCR, the UN refugee agency.

But that figure dropped to 122.1 million by the end of April this year, as Syrians began returning home after years of turmoil.

Nearly two million Syrians have been able to return home from abroad or from displacement within the war-ravaged country.

But the UNHCR warned that how major conflicts worldwide played out would determine whether the figure would rise once again.

The agency said the number of people displaced by war, violence and persecution worldwide was “untenably high,” particularly in a period when humanitarian funding is evaporating.

“We are living in a time of intense volatility in international relations, with modern warfare creating a fragile, harrowing landscape marked by acute human suffering,” said Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

“We must redouble our efforts to search for peace and find long-lasting solutions for refugees and others forced to flee their homes.”

The main drivers of displacement remain sprawling conflicts like those in Sudan, Myanmar and Ukraine, UNHCR said in its flagship annual Global Trends Report.

Syria’s brutal civil war erupted in 2011 but president Bashar Assad was finally overthrown in December 2024.

The report said the first months of this year saw rising numbers of Syrians returning home.

As of mid-May, more than 500,000 Syrians are estimated to have crossed back into the country since the fall of Assad, while an estimated 1.2 million internally displaced people (IDPs) have returned to their areas of origin since the end of November.

UNHCR estimates that up to 1.5 million Syrians from abroad and two million IDPs may return by the end of 2025.

Sudan is now the world’s largest forced displacement situation with 14.3 million refugees and IDPs, overtaking Syria (13.5 million), which is followed by Afghanistan (10.3 million) and Ukraine (8.8 million).

“During the remainder of 2025, much will depend on the dynamics in key situations,” the annual report said.

“This includes whether peace, or at least a cessation in fighting, is possible to achieve, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan and Ukraine.”

It also depends on whether conditions for returns improve in Afghanistan and Syria.

Another factor was “how dire the impact of the current funding cuts will be” on responding to displacement and creating conditions for safe and dignified returns.

The number of people forced to flee persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations and events seriously disturbing public order has almost doubled in the last decade.

The figure of 123.2 million worldwide at the end of last year was up seven million compared to the end of 2023.

“One in 67 people globally were forcibly displaced at the end of 2024,” UNHCR said.

In total, 9.8 million forcibly displaced people returned home in 2024, including 1.6 million refugees — the most for more than two decades — and 8.2 million IDPs — the second highest ever.

“We have seen some rays of hope over the last six months,” said Grandi.

But countries such as the DR Congo, Myanmar and South Sudan saw significant new forced displacements as well as returns.

Two-thirds of refugees stay in neighboring countries.

Iran (3.5 million), Turkiye (2.9 million), Colombia (2.8 million), Germany (2.7 million) and Uganda (1.8 million) host the largest refugee populations.