IMF expects UAE’s economy to grow by 4% in 2024

In its previous projection in April, the IMF predicted that the UAE’s economy would grow by 3.5 percent in 2024. Shutterstock
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Updated 21 May 2024
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IMF expects UAE’s economy to grow by 4% in 2024

RIYADH: The UAE’s gross domestic product is set to expand by 4 percent this year, driven by robust domestic activities and relatively high oil prices, an International Monetary Fund has forecast.

In its latest Article IV end of mission statement, the IMF noted that the Emirates is experiencing strong growth in domestic sectors, including tourism, construction, and financial services. 

The report further noted that UAE’s oil GDP will also expand this year if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, decide to ease the previously proposed output cuts. 

“Economic growth in the UAE is broad-based, led by robust activity in the tourism, construction, manufacturing, and financial services sectors. Foreign demand for real estate, increased bilateral and multilateral ties, and the UAE’s safe haven status continue to drive rapid growth in housing prices and an increase in rents while adding to ample domestic liquidity,” said the IMF in the statement. 

In its previous projection in April, the organization predicted that the UAE’s economy would grow by 3.5 percent in 2024. 

The UN financial agency added that the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Emirates so far is still minimal, and the country’s response to the recent flooding was rapid and effective. 

IMF further pointed out that the inflation rate in the UAE is expected to be contained at 2 percent in 2024. 

According to the study, the UAE’s fiscal and external surpluses are expected to remain high this year due to relatively surging oil prices. 

“The general government surplus is projected to be around 5 percent of GDP in 2024 and public debt is on track to decline further toward 30 percent of GDP, benefitting from active debt management strategies,” said IMF. 

It added: “Capital spending is expected to meet ongoing infrastructure needs, and the introduction of the corporate income tax will support non-hydrocarbon revenue with its full implementation in the coming years. The current account surplus is projected at around 9 percent of GDP in 2024.” 

The international financial institution also noted that accelerated public and private investment and structural reforms in areas like renewable energy and technology could further accelerate economic growth in the Emirates. 

However, the IMF noted that the UAE’s economic outlook is subject to uncertainty and external risks, including those related to geopolitical tensions, global growth, and commodity price volatility. 

The study highlighted that banks in the Emirates have considerable capital and liquidity buffers, while credit growth is resilient despite higher domestic interest rates. 

“The efforts to digitalize the financial system and payment landscape are welcome and should continue to follow a risk-conscious approach. Initiatives to develop and regulate the virtual asset industry should be informed by a careful assessment of macroeconomic and financial stability risks,” said the IMF. 

The report concluded by saying that gradual fiscal consolidation and further structural reforms will ensure the UAE’s economic prudence and medium-term sustainability. 


Oil Updates — crude set for 2nd weekly decline as market eyes another OPEC+ output hike

Updated 30 May 2025
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Oil Updates — crude set for 2nd weekly decline as market eyes another OPEC+ output hike

BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices were on track for a second consecutive weekly decline on Friday, weighed down by expectations of another OPEC+ output hike in July and fresh uncertainty after the latest legal twist kept US President Donald Trump’s tariffs in place.

Brent crude futures slipped 31 cents, or 0.48 percent, to $63.84 a barrel by 7:24 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 31 cents, or 0.51 percent, to $60.63 a barrel.

The Brent July futures contract is due to expire on Friday.

Both contracts have fallen 1.5 percent so far this week.

The downward trajectory largely stemmed from the prospect of rising supplies as investors priced in another hike by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, when eight of its members meet on Saturday.

“The stage is set for another bumper production increase,” Westpac’s head of commodity and carbon research Robert Rennie said in a note, potentially higher than the 411,000 barrels per day hike decided on at the previous two meetings.

The potential hike comes as the global surplus has widened to 2.2 million barrels per day, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance, said JPMorgan analysts in a note.

They expect prices to remain within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end.

In the US, Trump’s tariffs were to remain in effect after a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them on Thursday, reversing a trade court’s decision on Wednesday to put an immediate block on the most sweeping of the duties.

The block had sent oil prices falling more than 1 percent on Thursday as traders weighed its effects. Analysts said uncertainty would remain as the tariff battles worked their way.

Oil prices have lost more than 10 percent since Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.

On the demand front, recession worries fueled by the tariff war have clouded the outlook. Adding to US-China trade tension, Washington ordered a broad swathe of companies to stop shipping goods, including ethane and butane, to China without a license and revoked licenses already granted to certain suppliers.

Global oil demand improved from the previous week, driven by a rebound in US oil consumption with robust travel over the Memorial Day long weekend, JPMorgan analysts noted.

That said, the monthly expansion in global oil demand is tracking at approximately 400,000 bpd as of May 28, 250,000 bpd below expectations, they said. 


Saudi Aramco to tap bond market amid low gearing at around 5%, CEO says 

Updated 29 May 2025
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Saudi Aramco to tap bond market amid low gearing at around 5%, CEO says 

  • Amin Nasser said the oil giant’s gearing ratio, a financial metric that compares a company’s debt to its equity, is currently around 5%
  • He reaffirmed the company’s commitment to maintaining high dividends

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco will continue tapping bond markets in the future despite maintaining one of the lowest gearing ratios in the energy industry, according to a top official. 

In an interview with Bloomberg, Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said the oil giant’s gearing ratio, a financial metric that compares a company’s debt to its equity, is currently around 5 percent. That’s significantly lower than the industry average, where many peers operate with levels between 15 and 20 percent.

“Our gearing today is around 5 percent — still one of the lowest gearing, you know. It’s almost half of the average compared to other energy industry players in the market, and we will continue to tap into that additional bond markets in the future,” Nasser said. 

He continued: “But we have a low gearing ratio, which still, as you consider it, is very low compared to any players in the markets.” 

The low gearing ratio, which reflects strong financial discipline and limited reliance on debt, is part of what enables Aramco to maintain stability amid market fluctuations. 

Gearing is commonly used by analysts and investors to assess a company’s financial leverage, with lower ratios often indicating a stronger balance sheet and reduced financial risk. 

In the interview, Nasser also reaffirmed the company’s commitment to maintaining high dividends. “We have a strong balance sheet, and our dividend is one of the highest, the highest globally. We’re expecting to pay dividends that go to the majority shareholder and other shareholders, which is the government, of $85.4 billion this year.” 

He said the company benefits from having spare capacity, which allows it to bring more barrels to the market. “For every million barrels, that will have a huge impact on our net income. I would say it will give you a $10 cushion for every million barrels that you put into the market.”   

Nasser added: “We have today close to 3 million barrels of spare capacity, so other companies do not have that to cushion any drop in prices. For us, we do have that spare capacity that is healthy, strong, and when you put it, it allows you to increase significantly your net income.” 

He emphasized the company’s ability to withstand lower oil prices due to its operational efficiency and robust infrastructure.

“We are the lowest cost producer. Our extraction cost is $3, and it still is $3. And with low extraction cost, healthy balance sheet, and our investment that is continuing to be capturing opportunities that we have,” Nasser said. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 10,990 

Updated 29 May 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 10,990 

  • Parallel market Nomu dropped 123.20 points to close at 26,809.75
  • MSCI Tadawul Index declined by 0.70 percent to 1,403.80

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Thursday, as it shed 62.35 points, or 0.56 percent, to close at 10,990.41. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR10.20 billion ($2.72 billion), with 169 of the listed stocks advancing and 74 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also dropped 123.20 points to close at 26,809.75. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index declined by 0.70 percent to 1,403.80. 

The best-performing stock on the main market was Saudi Reinsurance Co. The firm’s share price soared by 9.31 percent to SR50.50. 

The share price of East Pipes Integrated Co. for Industry increased by 7.83 percent to SR124. 

Arabian Drilling Co. also saw its stock price edging up by 5.12 percent to SR84.20. 

Conversely, the share price of Makkah Construction and Development Co. declined by 5.65 percent to SR96.80. 

On the announcements front, Al Moammar Information Systems Co., also known as MIS, said that it signed a contract valued at SR58.93 million with the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority to operate and maintain the National Unified Visa Platform.

In a Tadawul statement, the company stated that the contract is valid for 36 months, with no related parties involved in the deal. 

MIS added that the contract is expected to have an impact on the company’s financial results starting from the third quarter of this year. 

The share price of MIS rose by 1.66 percent to SR134.80. 

Al Kathiri Holding Co. said that its subsidiary, Saraya Al Diyar Investment Co., has entered into a long-term lease agreement valued at SR143.1 million with the Aseer Municipality to build and operate a mixed-use hotel and commercial complex in Abha. 

Under the deal, Saraya Al Diyar Investment Co. will establish a four-star hotel with 180 keys, as well as retail and entertainment facilities in the project that spans a total area of 53,000 sq. meters. 

The new contract is in line with Al Kathiri Holding’s strategic direction to diversify its investment portfolio and expand into promising, high-impact sectors, aligning with the goals of Saudi Vision 2030, the company said in the statement. 

Al Kathiri Holding Co.’s share price was unchanged at SR2.08 by the end of Thursday’s trading. 


Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah airport soars to top three in Middle East airport rankings

Updated 29 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah airport soars to top three in Middle East airport rankings

  • KAIA followed Dubai International Airport and Qatar’s Hamad International Airport in the regional rankings

JEDDAH: King Abdulaziz International Airport has secured third place in the 2024 Airport Connectivity Index for the Middle East, marking a significant milestone in Saudi Arabia’s ascent as a global aviation hub.

The ranking was announced at the Air Connectivity Conference 2025, held in Shanghai, where the Airports Council International Asia-Pacific and Middle East unveiled its annual index.

KAIA followed Dubai International Airport and Qatar’s Hamad International Airport in the regional rankings.

This recognition underscores both KAIA’s growing operational capacity and Saudi Arabia’s broader Vision 2030 goal of transforming the Kingdom into a leading logistics and transportation center. As part of that strategy, Saudi Arabia aims to handle 330 million passengers annually, connect to 250 international destinations, and transport 4.5 million tonnes of cargo by 2030.

Mazen Johar, CEO of Jeddah Airports Co., said the latest ranking reflects the airport’s progress in expanding its air network and enhancing connectivity.

“This milestone demonstrates our commitment to operational excellence and aligns with our strategy to establish KAIA as a pivotal global hub,” he said in a statement to SPA.

Johar noted that the airport’s improved ranking is a result of sustained efforts to boost competitiveness, upgrade infrastructure, and elevate passenger experience in line with national transport goals.

KAIA also held the third spot in the 2023 edition of the index, announced during ACI’s annual assembly in Riyadh.

As part of its long-term development plans, JEDCO is implementing upgrades aligned with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy. These enhancements aim to increase KAIA’s passenger capacity to 114 million annually by the end of the decade.

In 2024, KAIA served 49.1 million passengers — up 14 percent from 2023 — marking the highest annual passenger volume recorded by any airport in the Kingdom. The busiest day was December 31, when over 174,600 passengers passed through the airport. December also set a monthly record, with traffic exceeding 4.7 million passengers.

In the Asia-Pacific rankings, Shanghai Pudong International Airport claimed the top spot, followed by Incheon International Airport in South Korea and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. Hong Kong International Airport was recognized as the most improved airport in terms of connectivity across both regions.

Headquartered in Hong Kong with a regional office in Riyadh, ACI Asia-Pacific and Middle East represents airports in some of the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets. The Airport Connectivity Index— developed with PwC in 2023 and refined in its third edition — measures network scale, frequency, destination economic weight, and connection efficiency.

According to ACI, air connectivity in the Middle East grew 28 percent year on year, while Asia-Pacific saw a 13 percent increase, reflecting a 14 percent average growth across both regions. These gains signal a robust post-pandemic recovery and the continued momentum of global air travel.


Saudi EXIM Bank targets African markets with 4 new MoUs 

Updated 29 May 2025
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Saudi EXIM Bank targets African markets with 4 new MoUs 

  • Deals come as Saudi exports to Africa surged 20.6% year on year to SR7.84 billion in March
  • Saudi delegation held in-depth discussions with leaders of several international financial institution

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating the expansion of its non-oil exports into African markets, with the Saudi Export-Import Bank securing four new strategic agreements to strengthen trade and investment ties across the continent.  

Saudi Export-Import Bank CEO Saad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalb signed memoranda of understanding with Africa50, the Ghana Export-Import Bank, Blend International Limited, and Guinea’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, the Saudi Press Agency reported.  

The deals were finalized on the sidelines of the African Development Bank Group’s annual meetings, held in Cote d’Ivoire from May 26 to 30. 

The newly signed deals come as Saudi exports to Africa surged 20.6 percent year on year to SR7.84 billion ($2.09 billion) in March 2025, reflecting growing trade ties between the Kingdom and the continent.  

Al-Khalb said the bank’s participation in the meetings aims to deepen international trade relations and forge partnerships that support Saudi non-oil export growth in African markets. 

The SPA report added: “He stated that the memoranda of understanding are an extension of the bank’s efforts to promote trade exchange, stimulate development projects, and enable local exporters to export their services and products to African markets through effective and extended partnerships, contributing to supporting sustainable development goals and enhancing economic integration.” 

He also described the gathering as a valuable opportunity to boost economic cooperation and engage with officials from export credit agencies and financial institutions across African countries. 

The agreements were signed by Saudi EXIM CEO Saad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khalb, along with Alain Ebobisse, CEO of Africa50; Sylvester Mensah, CEO of the Ghana Export-Import Bank; Ravi Gupta, managing director of Blend International Limited; and Ismail Nabeh, minister of planning and international cooperation of Guinea.

The MoU with Africa50 is aimed at enhancing cooperation in infrastructure projects by partnering with Saudi companies. The agreement with the Ghana Export-Import Bank will focus on exploring cooperation opportunities and enhancing bilateral exports of services and products. 

Meanwhile, the MoU with Blend International Limited is aimed at targeting broader trade opportunities and international partnerships. The deal with Guinea’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation seeks to bolster development projects and investment in priority sectors, enabling Saudi exports of engineering services and industrial supplies. 

Also, on the sidelines of the event, Al-Khalb and his delegation held in-depth discussions with leaders of several international financial institutions, focusing on expanding trade ties and boosting the flow of Saudi non-oil exports into African markets.