Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

“Cautious optimism” for transitional govt
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Updated 14 April 2025
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Frankly Speaking: Four months in, how is the change in Syria being seen?

  • London-based Syria analyst Ghassan Ibrahim expresses cautious optimism about country’s post-Assad future, including relations with Israel
  • Calls for lifting of sanctions which are “hurting ordinary people,” unpacks Al-Sharaa government’s evolving ties with Turkiye, Russia and Iran

RIYADH: As Syria navigates a precarious path away from the decades-long rule of the Assad dynasty, Ghassan Ibrahim, a London-based Syria analyst, says cautious optimism defines the moment.

Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs show that dives deep into regional developments with leading policymakers and analysts, Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa.

“Yes, I’m optimistic, but cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The situation in Syria is not that easy. President Bashar Assad, when he left, literally made sure that all the institutions in Syria were not functioning. He stayed in power until the last day. And after that, when he left, literally, he left the country on its knees.”

Four months into a new political chapter, Syria’s fledgling government faces enormous hurdles: institutional collapse, brain drain, poverty, insecurity and a sanctions regime that continues to paralyze the economy.

“There is big hope,” Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen, “but the question is: Where will they bring all these resources from, to make them function as in any other government around the world?”

The economic picture is bleak. Over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and basic infrastructure has either collapsed or is running at a fraction of capacity. Ibrahim said the country’s rich natural resources — oil, gas, and minerals — remain largely idle. And a mass exodus of skilled professionals and entrepreneurs over the last 14 years has left a human capital vacuum.

“Literally, there is not any good environment to tell to the people come back — especially the talented ones, especially the investors, and as well, the people who can participate in the new reform,” he said.




All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development —a Syria open for normalization with every normal country, including Israel, London-based analyst Ghassan Ibrahim told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN Photo)

Yet Ibrahim insists that the absence of large-scale sectarian violence after Assad’s fall is in itself a major achievement. “No one was thinking that Syria will end up after Assad leaves without a huge sectarian war,” he said.

Though there have been some flare-ups — most notably a wave of killings in the western coastal region in early March — Ibrahim said the response has so far avoided mass escalation.

“If we look at the full picture, it’s something promising, but requires a lot of work,” he added.

President Al-Sharaa’s first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia was not just symbolic — it was strategic, according to Ibrahim.

“He is trying to relocate Syria within a new alliance — an alliance of modernity, stability and open-minded policies,” he said, noting the president’s praise for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

Al-Sharaa’s ongoing visit to the UAE, he added, could prove essential to Syria’s reintegration with the region. “Syria needs now friends and brothers to help them, to lead, to guide them,” Ibrahim said. “The UAE is capable, through its wide network internationally, of opening the door, to reintroduce the new Syria to the world.”




Al-Sharaa with foreign minister Asaad Al-Shaibani on the way for talks in the UAE. (X/@AssadAlshaibani)

He also said the visits send a reassuring message that Syria does not wish to destabilize the region. “Syria will be productive and active and be part of this kind of alliance between the regional powers,” he added.

On the horizon is a visit to Turkiye, a former adversary now positioned as a “typical friend,” in Ibrahim’s words. But the relationship is more complicated. While ties with Ankara could help stabilize Syria’s north and resolve Kurdish tensions, Ibrahim warned that Turkish involvement risks aggravating fears in Israel and reintroducing regional rivalries into Syrian soil.

“We’ve noticed the involvement of Turkiye has caused two troubles somehow: With the Kurdish internally and with Israel,” he said.

The prospect of renewed conflict with Israel looms large. Southern Syria has seen a spike in Israeli airstrikes targeting what it says are weapons depots and military infrastructure. But Ibrahim said the new Syrian leadership is avoiding provocation.

“They are trying to, well, calculate the risk. They don’t want to behave like a militia. They want to be a state,” he said. “We’d rather leave some — there is some, I think, second-track diplomacy open now between Syria and Israel.”

According to Ibrahim, there is growing recognition in Damascus that stability with Israel is preferable to brinkmanship. “Israel, in the end of the day, will understand it’s not to their advantage to partition the country,” he added.




Al-Sharaa attends an interview with Reuters at the presidential palace in Damascus in March. (Reuters/File Photo)

Iran, by contrast, remains a destabilizing force, he warned. “They invested the most in this war and they lost the biggest loss in this war. So, they won’t leave Syria to be a stable state without working on destabilizing it,” Ibrahim said.

He accused Tehran of supporting militias in Syria’s coastal regions and pushing for partition along sectarian lines, but added that its influence is waning. “They did not leave any good legacy behind them in Syria to let the Syrians feel they are welcome,” he said.

As Damascus distances itself from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ibrahim said the new government is signaling that it wants a reset. “Why don’t they stop exporting their revolution? Then the Syrians may consider normalization with Iran,” he added.

But without the lifting of US and European sanctions, Syria’s future remains hostage to its past.

“The sanctions at this moment are out of context,” said Ibrahim. While once meant to isolate the Assad regime, they now, in his view, cripple the new administration’s ability to govern.

“So, the sanctions now are literally just hurting ordinary Syrian people,” he said. “If the West wants to see Syria a normal state running in a normal manner without showing any kind of hostility, they have to help. And the way to help is literally lift the sanctions.”

He said that unless sanctions are lifted, growing popular frustration may spark unrest. “If they don’t see improvements soon, they will go to the streets and we will end up with another crisis this year,” he said.

The killings in Latakia and Tartous — reportedly sparked by loyalists of the former regime — exposed how fragile the situation remains.

“It was unjustified, it was some kind of war crime, it was not acceptable,” Ibrahim said. He defended President Al-Sharaa’s early policy of clemency toward Assad loyalists, but acknowledged that it may have inadvertently fueled revenge killings.

“There was an intention that if all Syrians want to close that chapter, they don’t want to go back to that moment of sectarian war,” he said. But the strategy also allowed hostile elements to regroup.




Speaking on the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” Ibrahim discussed the challenges and opportunities facing the new transitional government of President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. (AN Photo)

Even the composition of the new cabinet has drawn criticism, with some ethnic and religious minorities saying they were not consulted. Ibrahim said President Al-Sharaa is trying to walk a tightrope.

“Is it wrong to choose loyalists from different backgrounds as much as possible? Probably, this is not the ideal transitional government,” he said. “He wants a kind of unity in his government.”

Asked about reports that Turkiye is negotiating a defense pact that would place air defense systems in Syria, Ibrahim said Damascus has voiced its concerns directly.

“The Syrians don’t want to let their country be in a box — like a mailbox, with both sides sending messages through the Syrians,” he said.

According to Ibrahim, Syria is attempting to broker peace between Turkiye and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. A deal may even be in the works, potentially sponsored by the US.

“He does not want to enter in a proxy war on behalf of Turkiye to fight with the Syrian Democratic Forces,” Ibrahim said of Al-Sharaa. “And we may hear in the coming months some kind of like de-escalation agreement.”

While Syria seeks Western engagement, it is not abandoning ties with Moscow. Ibrahim called Russia a pragmatic partner that has kept channels open to both the former regime and the opposition.

“Probably, Russia may play a very vital role in striking a deal with Israel because the Russians have good relations with the Israelis,” he added.

Finally, Ibrahim addressed remarks by a former provincial governor in Syria to a Wall Street Journal reporter, warning that continued Israeli aggression could attract “holy warriors” from around the world.

“It’s probably the message was taken out of its context,” Ibrahim said. “There is a clear message from Damascus to around the world: Syria will not be a hub to attack any country, including Israel.”

Ibrahim pointed to Al-Sharaa’s use of the term “Israeli state” — a break from the Assad-era lexicon — as a sign of a new posture. “The Syrians look at normalization with Israel as an advantage for Syria and advantage for everyone,” he said.

Looking to the future, Ibrahim said: “All Syrians are looking at their country as a hub for stability and development — free trade, a Syria open for normalization with every normal country or normal state around the world, including Israel.”

 

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Syria to import electricity from Turkiye, rehabilitate Kilis-Aleppo natural gas pipeline

Updated 6 sec ago
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Syria to import electricity from Turkiye, rehabilitate Kilis-Aleppo natural gas pipeline

  • Energy Minister discussed with the Turkish side the possibility of mining Syria’s earth minerals
  • Government developing new 80-megawatt transmission line between Turkiye’s Reyhanli district and Syria’s Harem region

LONDON: The Syrian Arab Republic will import electricity from Turkiye and rehabilitate a natural gas pipeline connecting two border regions, the country’s energy minister said on Sunday.

Mohammed Al-Bashir stated that Damascus is finalizing an agreement to import electricity from Turkiye via a 400-kilovolt high-voltage transmission line that links the two countries.

Al-Bashir stated that the government is developing another 80-megawatt transmission line between Turkiye’s Reyhanli district and Syria’s Harem region to supply electricity to towns in northern Syria.

“Additionally, we are working to rehabilitate the natural gas pipeline connecting Kilis and Aleppo,” two cities in southern Turkiye and northern Syria, the minister added.

“Once operational, (the pipeline) could supply 6 million cubic meters of gas per day to Syria’s power generation stations, significantly improving our energy situation,” he added in a statement to the SANA news agency.

The minister said he discussed with the Turkish side the possibility of mining Syria’s mineral deposits, such as phosphate and lithium, and the prospect of exploring natural gas in the country’s national waters. He urged Turkish companies to invest in exploring Syria’s oil and natural gas potential, upgrading power lines and plants, and rebuilding refineries and transportation systems.


Israel vows retaliation against Iran, Yemen’s Houthis over airport attack

Updated 14 min 41 sec ago
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Israel vows retaliation against Iran, Yemen’s Houthis over airport attack

  • It is the first time a missile has directly struck inside Israel's main airport, according to a military spokesperson
  • Netanyahu said Israel would also respond to Iran at 'a time and place of our choosing'

TEL AVIV: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday vowed a response to Yemen’s Houthis and their Iranian backers after the militant group struck the area of Israel’s main airport, wounding six people and prompting several major airlines to suspend flights.
The strike came hours before Israel’s army confirmed the call-up of “tens of thousands” of reservists to expand the 19-month war in Gaza against Palestinian militants Hamas.
The military confirmed that the attack, which gouged a large crater in the perimeter of Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, was launched from Yemen and had struck despite “several attempts... to intercept the missile.”
In a video published on Telegram, Netanyahu said Israel had “acted against” the Iran-backed group in the past and “will act in the future.”
“It will not happen in one bang, but there will be many bangs,” he added, without going into further detail.
Later on X, Netanyahu said Israel would also respond to Iran at “a time and place of our choosing.”
A police video showed officers standing on the edge of a deep hole in the ground with the control tower visible behind them. No damage was reported to airport infrastructure.
The police reported a “missile impact” at Israel’s main international gateway.
An AFP photographer said the missile hit near the parking lots of Terminal 3, the airport’s largest. The crater was just hundreds of meters from the tarmac.
Missile inside the airport
“You can see the area just behind us: a crater was formed here, several dozen meters wide and several dozen meters deep,” central Israel’s police chief, Yair Hezroni, said in the video.
“This is the first time” that a missile has directly struck inside the airport perimeter, an Israeli military spokesperson told AFP.
Earlier, the Houthis, who say they act in support of Palestinians in war-ravaged Gaza, claimed responsibility for the attack.
The group said their forces “carried out a military operation targeting Ben Gurion airport” with a “hypersonic ballistic missile.”
Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened a forceful response, saying: “Anyone who hits us, we will hit them seven times stronger.”
Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad later hailed the attack on the airport.
Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency service said it had treated at least six people with light to moderate injuries.
An AFP journalist inside the airport at the time of the attack said he heard a “loud bang” at around 9:35 am local time, adding that the “reverberation was very strong.”
“Security staff immediately asked hundreds of passengers to take shelter, some in bunkers,” the AFP journalist said.
“Many passengers are now waiting for their flights to take off, and others are trying to find alternative flights.”
An incoming Air India flight was diverted to Abu Dhabi, an airport official told AFP.
It was one of the airlines to suspend Tel Aviv flights until Tuesday along with Italy’s ITA Airways and Germany’s Lufthansa Group, which includes Austrian, Eurowings and SWISS. Air France announced the cancelation of Sunday flights.
The Houthis, who control swathes of Yemen, have launched missiles and drones targeting Israel and Red Sea shipping throughout the Gaza war.
Israel resumed major operations across Gaza on March 18 amid a deadlock over how to proceed with a two-month ceasefire that had largely stopped the war.


Jordan’s tourism sector surges in first quarter of year with 19% rise in visitors, 8.9% revenue boost

Updated 30 min 7 sec ago
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Jordan’s tourism sector surges in first quarter of year with 19% rise in visitors, 8.9% revenue boost

  • The surge was fueled by a 19 percent year-on-year rise in international arrivals
  • Enhanced air connectivity, targeted international marketing campaigns and Continued investment in infrastructure reasons given for rise

AMMAN: Jordan’s tourism sector has kicked off 2025 strongly, registering growth in both visitor numbers and revenue, a Jordan News Agency report said on Sunday.

According to the Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities, tourism revenue reached 1.217 billion dinars ($1.72 billion) in the first quarter of the year, which equated to an 8.9 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024.

The surge was fueled by a 19 percent year-on-year rise in international arrivals, which reached 2.125 million between January and April.

Overnight visitors increased by 15.3 percent to 1.765 million, while the number of same-day visitors soared by 41.6 percent to 360,000 compared to early 2024.

April alone saw international arrivals jump by 36.7 percent to 617,000, suggesting that the strong momentum is likely to carry into the second quarter.

Ministry officials attributed the growth to several strategic initiatives.

Enhanced air connectivity, including new direct flights and expanded budget airline operations, has significantly improved access to Jordan, they said.

Meanwhile, targeted international marketing campaigns have successfully spotlighted the kingdom’s diverse tourism offerings, from heritage sites and desert landscapes to adventure and wellness experiences.

Continued investment in infrastructure has also played a role, they said, which has improved the visitor experience and enhanced the country’s overall competitiveness in the global travel market.

Beyond direct economic impact, tourism’s strong performance is boosting Jordan’s foreign currency reserves and generating employment across the hospitality and service sectors, JNA said.

Looking ahead, the ministry reaffirmed its commitment to a national tourism strategy grounded in sustainable development.

Its goals include increasing tourism’s contribution to GDP, creating long-term job opportunities, and solidifying Jordan’s position as a premier global destination by promoting its rich historical, cultural, and natural assets.


Flights again halted to Israel after Houthi missile lands near airport

Travelers pull luggage as they walk toward Ben Gurion airport after main road entrances to the facility were closed by Israel.
Updated 04 May 2025
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Flights again halted to Israel after Houthi missile lands near airport

  • Many foreign airlines subsequently suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv after the missile hit
  • Claiming responsibility for the strike, Houthis’ military spokesperson said Israel’s main airport was “no longer safe for air travel”

JERUSALEM: European and US carriers canceled flights for the next several days after a missile fired by the Houthis on Sunday landed near Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, the country’s main international travel gateway.
Many foreign airlines subsequently suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv after the missile hit, sending a plume of smoke into the air and causing panic among passengers in the terminal building.
Following a ceasefire deal with Palestinian militant group Hamas in January, foreign carriers had begun to resume flights to Israel after halting them for much of the last year and a half since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack.
That left flag carrier El Al Airlines — along with smaller rivals Arkia and Israir — with a near monopoly. El Al’s shares rose 7 percent, while Israir gained 4.1 percent in a flat broader Tel Aviv market on Sunday.
Delta Air Lines said it canceled Sunday’s flight from JFK in New York to Tel Aviv and the return flight from Tel Aviv on Monday. United canceled its twice daily flights between Tel Aviv and Newark while it monitors the situation.
Earlier, flights from Tel Aviv on Delta and United on Sunday morning departed about 90 minutes late.
Lufthansa Group, which includes Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels and Austrian, said it had halted flights to and from Tel Aviv through Tuesday due to the current situation.
ITA said it had canceled flights from Italy to Israel through Wednesday, while Air France canceled flights on Sunday, saying customers were transferred to flights on Monday. TUS flights to and from Cyprus were canceled through Monday, while Air India flights from New Delhi were halted on Sunday.
Ryanair suspended flights on Sunday but flights are still scheduled for Monday, according to the Israel Airports Authority. Wizz also halted flights.
“I’m afraid it’s going to be very difficult to go back to France because all European carriers, from what I see on the information (board), have canceled. Lufthansa have canceled, Swiss have canceled, Brussels (Airlines), so no connection is possible,” said Michael Sceemes, 56, whose Air France flight was canceled.
Aegean, flydubai and Ethiopian did not cancel flights.
El Al said it would reintroduce rescue flights to Israel from Larnaca and Athens for passengers stranded by foreign carriers at a cost of $99 and $149, respectively.
Udi Bar Oz, head of Ben Gurion Airport, said the airport was up and running less than 30 minutes after the missile hit a road nearby.
Claiming responsibility for the strike, the Houthis’ military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said Israel’s main airport was “no longer safe for air travel.”
The Houthis, who control swathes of Yemen, began targeting Israel and Red Sea shipping in late 2023, during the early days of the war between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip.
US President Donald Trump in March ordered large-scale strikes against the Houthis to deter them from targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to respond to the Houthis. “We attacked in the past, we will attack in the future ... There will be more blows,” he said.


Two held in Iran after deadly port explosion: state TV

This image shows a crater after an explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port dock southwest of Bandar Abbas.
Updated 04 May 2025
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Two held in Iran after deadly port explosion: state TV

  • April 26 blast at a dock in the southern port of Shahid Rajaee killed at least 57 people and injured more than 1,000, officials said, revising down an earlier death toll

TEHRAN: Iranian authorities arrested two people including a government official in connection with a deadly explosion last month at the country’s main commercial port, state television reported on Sunday.
The April 26 blast at a dock in the southern port of Shahid Rajaee killed at least 57 people and injured more than 1,000, officials said, revising down an earlier death toll.
The judiciary on Sunday said the toll had been revised because “it was determined that some of the bodies considered separate were in fact one body,” adding that it could still change.
At the time of the blast, Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni blamed “shortcomings, including noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence.”
Shahid Rajaee is near Iran’s coastal city of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes.
“A government manager and another from the private sector have been arrested,” state television said on Sunday, citing a report from the investigating committee.
The committee announced on Monday that “false declarations (of goods) were made in some cases.”
It said on Sunday that “suspects have been identified and the summoning process is underway,” without elaborating.
The New York Times has quoted a person with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss security matters, as saying that what exploded was sodium perchlorate — a major ingredient in solid fuel for missiles.
Iran’s defense ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik later told state television that “there has been no imported or exported cargo for military fuel or military use in the area.”