UAE’s central bank raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4% amid oil sector expansion

The Central Bank of the UAE expects the country’s GDP to grow by 4 percent in 2024 (File/Getty)
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Updated 26 September 2024
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UAE’s central bank raises 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4% amid oil sector expansion

RIYADH: The UAE’s central bank has revised up its forecast for the country’s GDP growth in 2024 by 0.1 percentage points in light of expected improvements in the oil sector.

The institution had originally slated 3.9 percent growth for the 12-month period, but is now projecting an expansion of 4 percent.

In its second-quarter economic report, the bank maintained its 2025 growth forecast at 6 percent.

The analysis predicted that the non-hydrocarbon sector will grow by 5.2 percent in 2024, rising to 5.3 percent in 2025, while the hydrocarbon division is expected to see a modest 0.7 percent growth this year, increasing to 7.7 percent in 2025.

The report said: “Growth forecasts continue to be driven by tourism, transportation, financial and insurance services, construction and real estate, and communications sectors; while the current levels of oil production during 2024 partially moderate the overall growth.”

The central bank anticipated strong momentum in the hydrocarbon sector in 2025, with significant production increases. Additionally, it underlined that a rapid decline in interest rates in major advanced economies could boost global demand and encourage capital flows into emerging markets, including the UAE.

The report also revealed that non-hydrocarbon GDP growth stood at 4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, down from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter, mainly due to a slowdown in financial and insurance services, real estate activities, construction and manufacturing.

However, the report said that “non-hydrocarbon GDP growth is expected to remain strong at 5.2 percent in 2024 and 5.3 percent in 2025,” mainly driven by strategic plans and policies that the government has undertaken to attract foreign investments and the ongoing structural reforms.

The fiscal balance for the first quarter of the year remained positive at 23.5 billion Emirati dirhams ($6.39 billion), or 4.9 percent of GDP, compared to 23.2 billion dirhams, or 5.1 percent of GDP, in the first quarter of 2023.

The UAE’s consolidated budget revenues grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to 120.6 billion dirhams, or 24.9 percent of GDP, driven primarily by a 32.5 percent annual increase in tax revenues.

The central bank highlighted that the UAE’s fiscal stability is improving, with tax revenues making up an increasing share of total revenues — rising from 45.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022 to 70 percent in the first quarter of 2024 — mainly due to the recent introduction of corporate taxes.

The report also detailed government spending in the first quarter, saying: “Government expenditure in the first quarter of 2024 totaled 97.1 billion dirhams, or 20 percent of GDP, reflecting a 5 percent year-on-year increase.”

Key spending categories, including employee compensation, goods and services, and social benefits, rose by 6.3 percent, 15.2 percent, and 3.4 percent, respectively. Capital expenditures also saw a significant rise, increasing more than sevenfold to 5.6 billion dirhams.

The Central Bank of the UAE pointed to signs of expansion in the private non-oil sector, with the country’s purchasing managers’ index reaching 53.7 in July, reflecting sustained business confidence. 

Employment data showed that the number of workers covered by the Wage Protection System remained stable year-on-year in June, while average monthly wages increased by 4.8 percent. 

“The 16 non-oil sectors continued their robust growth pattern in Q2 2024, albeit at a more moderate rate,” the report added.

Wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and construction remained key pillars of non-oil sector expansion. 

Various comprehensive economic partnership agreements and visa-related initiatives have boosted trade volumes and transactions, while the manufacturing sector “continued to attract greater levels of FDI (foreign direct investment), expanding in line with Operation 300 billion.”

The construction sector also advanced, with numerous new infrastructure projects underway, including Etihad Rail and the Port of Dubai Creek.


Pakistan and Russia agree to establish new steel mill in Karachi — state media

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Pakistan and Russia agree to establish new steel mill in Karachi — state media

  • The two countries have worked on deepening their ties in recent years, focusing on energy cooperation
  • Both sides also collaborated in the 1970s when the Soviet Union helped set up Pakistan Steel Mills

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Russia have agreed to establish a steel mill in Karachi, state media reported on Tuesday, aiming to boost bilateral ties and expand industrial collaboration between the two countries.

Their understanding reflects a broader deepening of Pakistan-Russia relations in recent years, including energy cooperation on oil and gas supplies. In 2023, the two sides worked on a deal for the delivery of Russian crude to Pakistan, and talks have continued on broader energy partnerships.

The two countries are also collaborating on the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, a major infrastructure project aimed at transporting imported gas from Karachi to Punjab to help meet Pakistan’s energy needs.

The idea of the new steel mills was discussed during a meeting between Russian representative Denis Nazaroof and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) Haroon Akhtar Khan.

“The primary focus of the discussion was the establishment of new steel mills in Pakistan,” the Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) news agency reported.

The new project echoes the historic collaboration between the two sides in the 1970s, when the Soviet Union helped set up Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM).

PSM was once the country’s largest industrial complex. However, the facility suffered decades of neglect, financial mismanagement, and political interference, ultimately shutting down production in 2015 after accumulating billions in losses.

“Pakistan is a secure and thriving hub for investment, and the international community has recognized its potential,” Khan said during the meeting.

“I invite all Russian businesspeople to explore investment opportunities in Pakistan,” he added.

Khan also emphasized the Prime Minister’s vision to attract foreign investment and underscored the potential for meaningful Pakistan-Russia cooperation in the steel sector.


Radisson doubles down on Saudi Arabia with aggressive hotel expansion

Updated 14 May 2025
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Radisson doubles down on Saudi Arabia with aggressive hotel expansion

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia now accounts for half of Radisson Hotel Group’s Middle East portfolio, as the Kingdom cements its role as a global priority for the hospitality giant. 

The company currently has 100 hotels either open or under development across the region, with 50 of them located in Saudi Arabia, revealed Radisson’s top executive in an interview with Arab News on the sidelines of the Future Hospitality Summit in Riyadh. 

The expansion aligns with Saudi Arabia’s fast-growing hotel sector, as the Kingdom plans to add more than 362,000 new hotel rooms by 2030, backed by a $110 billion investment. 

Elie Younes, executive vice president and global chief development officer at Radisson, said: “Saudi Arabia sits in one of the top five countries for us globally.”  

He said that of the 50 hotels in Saudi Arabia, 30 are open and 20 are under construction. 

Providing details and a timeframe for their planned 20 hotels in Saudi Arabia, Younes said the projects will be rolled out over the next three to four years, with an additional 30 hotels expected to open in the following three to four years. 

The new wave of properties will translate into approximately 4,000 to 5,000 rooms. “If you multiply 20 by 200 to 250, you will get 4,000 to 5,000 rooms currently planned under construction in Saudi Arabia, which will eventually also make an economic impact because that will create job opportunities for approximately 5,000 people,” said Younes. 

Radisson is also ramping up its presence in the capital. The company recently opened Radisson Blu Minhal in Riyadh and plans to launch its third Radisson Collection hotel in the city soon.  

The Mansard Hotel, part of its urban portfolio, was noted as the brand’s first resort in Riyadh. Service apartments under the Radisson Collection brand are expected to open in the next four months. 

The group sees strong potential across multiple segments. “There is room for another 10 to 15 Radisson Blu hotels. As for Radisson Collection, which is our entry-level luxury brand, there will be fewer opportunities to grow it because of its luxury nature — maybe four or five more hotels. We already have three in Riyadh alone,” he said. 

Younes highlighted the scalability of the core four-star Radisson brand, particularly in smaller Saudi cities.  

“We recently opened three of them here in Riyadh alone, and I think we could open at least or sign another 20 or 30 of them in the Kingdom across the next four to five years, focusing on places like Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, and Madinah… to some extent, and specifically, after that, in some of the secondary regional cities, where we also see opportunities for business development,” he explained. 

Commenting on global tariffs, Younes said it is difficult to assess the impact of what he described as a “semi-political, semi-non-political” decision. 

 “We don’t see that to have a direct impact in Saudi Arabia because — you have to remember that — over 50 percent of the travel industry in Saudi Arabia is domesticated in terms of traveling, and over 90 percent of investments in Saudi Arabia comes from Saudi Arabia,” he added. 

Younes also spoke about broader trends in the hospitality industry, including growing traveler volumes and a heightened focus on sustainability. “I think we are very lucky and should be grateful to work in this industry because it is one of those ever-growing industries,” he said. 

He noted shifts in travel behavior as business and leisure increasingly merge: “People going for a long business trip but integrating into that trip a little bit of fun, bringing the wife, bringing the kids, spending the extra day. Wanting to have fun.” 

The executive noted that operational challenges are mounting, driven by rising costs and technological disruption. “The cost of labor going up. Inflation going up. The influence of artificial intelligence. All of these elements will push us and will result in us becoming more efficient,” he said. 

While artificial intelligence will likely shape back-end operations, Younes emphasized the enduring value of human service: “The human touch will never go away. We all know that.” 

Looking ahead, he sees the convergence of hospitality and residential real estate as a key evolution in the sector.

“I see more integration and fusion between the conventional hospitality and residential real estate as we move forward to try and achieve all of these efficiencies and economies,” he concluded. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,532 

Updated 13 May 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,532 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index extended its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, gaining 43.62 points, or 0.38 percent, to close at 11,532.27.

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index reached SR5.37 billion ($1.43 billion), with 120 listed stocks advancing and 121 declining.

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also closed higher, rising 585.86 points to end at 27,928.99.

Meanwhile, the MSCI Tadawul Index edged up 0.41 percent to close at 1,474.55.

The best-performing stock on the main market was Saudi Arabia Refineries Co., whose share price jumped 9.85 percent to SR65.80.

Zamil Industrial Investment Co. also saw gains, with its stock rising 7.73 percent to SR47.40.

ARTEX Industrial Investment Co. recorded a 4.35 percent increase, closing at SR13.44.

On the other hand, Gulf General Cooperative Insurance Co. saw its share price decline by 6.45 percent to SR7.11, making it one of the worst performers of the day.

On the announcements front, Al-Babtain Power and Telecommunication Co. reported a net profit of SR88.2 million for the first quarter of 2025, a 6.77 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

The company attributed the rise to improved productivity, cost reductions, and stronger profit margins. Its share price rose 1.45 percent to SR49.

Tabuk Cement Co. posted a 28.35 percent year-on-year decline in net profit for the first quarter, reaching SR13.04 million.

In a statement to Tadawul, the company cited a decrease in sales and other income as the primary reasons for the drop. Its stock fell 0.50 percent to SR11.90.

Riyadh Cement Co. reported a net profit of SR75.68 million for the first quarter, up 7.95 percent from the same period a year earlier, driven by increased sales volume and higher average selling prices. Its share price rose 0.45 percent to SR33.35.

Arabian Drilling saw its net profit plunge 48.63 percent year on year to SR75 million in the first quarter. Its stock declined 1.78 percent to SR82.90.

Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co., also known as Cenomi Retail, reported a net profit of SR1.8 million for the first quarter, reversing a net loss of SR151.7 million in the same period last year.

The company credited favorable seasonal dynamics and a continued focus on operational efficiency for the turnaround. Cenomi Retail’s share price rose 2.71 percent to SR15.94.

Al-Jouf Agricultural Development Co. reported a net profit of SR34.65 million in the first quarter, up 5.26 percent year on year. Its share price increased 1.76 percent to SR49.15.


Aramco to sign MoUs with NextDecade, Sempra for 6.2m tonnes of LNG

Updated 13 May 2025
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Aramco to sign MoUs with NextDecade, Sempra for 6.2m tonnes of LNG

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco will sign on Tuesday memoranda of understanding with US liquefied natural gas producer NextDecade and utility firm Sempra , Aramco’s chief executive said, as the oil giant expands in the LNG market.

“The US today, in terms of gas, is almost 100 billion (dollars) in sales ... and it is continuously increasing,” Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser told the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Riyadh.

“The US is really a good place to put our investment,” he added, noting that under the MoUs Sempra and NextDecade would supply around 6.2 million tonnes of LNG to Aramco.

The US is already the world’s largest exporter of LNG and producers have plans in place that would double capacity in coming years.

NextDecade last month signed a deal with a subsidiary of Aramco, which is seeking to become a big player in the LNG market, under which the US firm will supply the superchilled gas from its Rio Grande facility for 20 years.

“We do have other investments. So we’re looking at, by 2030, almost seven and a half million tons of LNG,” Nasser noted, speaking of expansion plans.

Nasser also said that one of the investments that Aramco plans to sign on Tuesday involved an expansion of the Motiva Port Arthur’s refinery in the US, noting the oil giant would invest $3.4 billion in the refinery.


SMEs account for 30% of listed companies in Saudi Arabia: CMA chief 

Updated 13 May 2025
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SMEs account for 30% of listed companies in Saudi Arabia: CMA chief 

JEDDAH: Small and medium enterprises now constitute 30 percent of listed companies in Saudi Arabia, following significant efforts by the Capital Market Authority to streamline the listing process and enhance the parallel market, according to CMA Chairman Mohammed El-Kuwaiz.

Speaking during “Finance Week” at the SME Support Council — an event organized by the Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority, also known as Monsha’at — El-Kuwaiz underscored the regulator’s commitment to broadening financing options and encouraging more SMEs to enter the capital market.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, El-Kuwaiz highlighted the 2017 launch of the parallel market, Nomu, as a major milestone in expanding access for smaller firms. Since then, 14 companies have successfully moved from Nomu to the main market, underscoring the strength of the investment ecosystem.

The Kingdom is targeting a 35 percent contribution from the SME sector to its gross domestic product by 2030, in line with the Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

El-Kuwaiz noted that the Nomu index has grown tenfold since its inception, with market capitalization soaring 26 times to nearly SR60 billion ($16 billion) by the end of 2024. Liquidity has also surged, with trading values reaching approximately SR14 billion this year — an eightfold increase.

To further ease capital market access, the CMA has introduced a suite of new tools, including direct listings and regulatory simplifications, in collaboration with strategic partners. As a result, companies now have access to nine distinct financing options, most of which were developed in recent years.

The CMA chief also pointed to the rapid growth of the fintech sector within capital markets, with revenues more than doubling — up 105 percent compared to 2023.

He emphasized the growing importance of credit ratings and evaluations in securing financing, particularly through debt instruments, which are increasingly vital for fostering sustainable growth in the financial sector.