Frankly Speaking: What does Russia think it will take to end the war with Ukraine?

1 | Defending Kremlin decision to cancel BlackSea Grain Initiative
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Updated 31 July 2023
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Frankly Speaking: What does Russia think it will take to end the war with Ukraine?

  • Russian diplomat Andrey Baklanov says a negotiated settlement is unlikely, insists Ukrainian government has to be annihilated
  • Thanks Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, for prisoner swap mediation, says bigger Chinese role in the Middle East serves Russia’s interests too

DUBAI: There is no possibility of reaching a truce between Russia and Ukraine and normality can only be achieved after the “annihilation” of the present government in Kyiv, Andrey Baklanov, a Russian diplomat and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, has said.

Sharing his insights in the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current-affairs talk show, Baklanov reckoned a negotiated settlement to the war was unlikely.




Andrey Baklanov, a Russian diplomat and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, speaks to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

“I think that there is no opportunity for any kind of truce between the present-day government — the so-called government, these fascist people in Kyiv — and us,” he added, referring to the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“I’m absolutely sure that the only option we have is to, well, to annihilate this regime in Ukraine and to return Ukraine to normality.”




Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) poses for a selfie with a serviceman during a visit to Donetsk region. (File/AFP)

Besides the Ukraine conflict, the interview touched on issues ranging from the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal and the Wagner Group to Russia’s relations with Syria and the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran normalization deal.

Baklanov noted that Russia’s aims in Ukraine remained unchanged.

“The first, denazification; second, demilitarization; and third, the termination of the criminal activities of the criminal regime, which had a coup d’etat in 2014,” he said, referring to the protests that removed pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych from power that year.




An employee walks near mangled warehouses at a grain facility in Pavlivka, Ukraine, Saturday, July 22, 2023, following Russian missile attacks. (File/AFP)

Although the Russian claim that Ukraine is controlled by a fascist clique has been vigorously contested, Baklanov drew on events of World War II to justify the “special military operation” launched against Ukraine 18 months ago.

“We regard what was going on in Ukraine as the prolongation of the Second World War,” he added.

In the present situation, he described Zelensky as a “traitor” who, together with “many other of the criminals, will be answering in our court for the criminal activities during the eight or even nine years against our people in Donbas. They will be caught and will be imprisoned.”




Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) buys an ice cream during a visit to the Donetsk region. (File/AFP)

Baklanov also used the interview to defend Russia’s decision to scrap a UN- and Turkiye-brokered agreement that had allowed grain, foodstuffs, fertilizer, and other commodities to be shipped from Ukraine’s blockaded Black Sea ports to some of the world’s most food-insecure countries.

He contended that the Kremlin was forced to cancel the deal, signed in the Turkish city of Istanbul in July 2022, in order to safeguard Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports.

Dmitry Peskov, the Russian government spokesperson, announced on July 17 that Russia would leave the Black Sea Grain Initiative. He said: “When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal.”

The Kremlin has given the UN three months to agree to its terms.




The Soviet coat of arms on the shield of a 62-meter Motherland Monument in Kyiv will be replaced with the coat of arms of Ukraine in accordance with the law on decommunization. (File/AFP)

Baklanov dismissed the deal as “fraudulent,” claiming that the majority of the grain had in fact been destined for Europe, not to food-insecure countries in Africa, and that Russian farmers were not benefiting from the arrangement.

“Only 3 percent of the grain went to the African continent and to the people that are suffering from hunger. The absolute majority of the grain went to prosperous countries of the West, especially European countries,” he added.

Claiming that only “half of the deal” was being recognized, he said no progress was visible on a related agreement designed to ease Russian food and agricultural exports amid Western sanctions imposed on Moscow in response to the Ukraine invasion.

On the Ukraine war, Baklanov noted that peace talks would not be on the table even though Russia was “very much thankful for the Arab countries and Saudi Arabia for their attempts to mediate.”




Aerial view shows destroyed buildings as a result of intense fighting, amid the Russian invasion, in Bakhmut, Ukraine in this still image from handout video. (File/AFP)

Close to 300 prisoners were exchanged between Ukraine and Russia in a deal brokered by Saudi and Turkiye in September. Both sides had captured hundreds of enemy fighters since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out on Feb. 24, 2022, but only a few prisoner exchanges had occurred since.

Baklanov pointed out that mediation could be very helpful but only as far as some “humanitarian aspects” were concerned, such as exchange of prisoners of war.

“But the origin of the war is something which our colleagues in Arab and Africans countries should understand better. It’s necessary to feel the history — not just to know the history, but to feel the history.




Prisoners of war are seen on the tarmac after arriving, following successful mediation efforts by Saudi Arabia, from Russia to King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh. (File/SPA)

“It’s only those people — like me and some others — who understand the origin, the source, of this conflict. For the external people, it’s rather difficult to understand this origin in due manner.

“So, we are very thankful for these attempts to mediate but I think that, in real terms, this mediation can be helpful only for the humanitarian part,” he added.

Baklanov said he regretted that Russia had not started to coordinate its policies with Saudi Arabia earlier, especially regarding oil.

“Unfortunately, I must admit, for many years we didn’t give a clear-cut answer for the proposals of Saudi Arabia to make a common deal on this front. It was a grave mistake of the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation.

“But now, fortunately enough, we have this formal OPEC+, and I will say again that the initiative was from Saudi Arabia, and we backed that, and it was, for a long period of time, a really good gesture from the Russian Federation. Also, we value very much the initiative of Saudi Arabia to sacrifice their own interests,” he added.

He pointed out that from his experience there was “a big difference” between Soviet-era and Russian Federation policies.




Belarusian soldiers of the Special Operations Forces and mercenary fighters from Wagner private military company attend the weeklong maneuvers conducted at a firing range near the city of Brest, Belarus. (File/AFP)

Baklanov said: “When I was for five years the ambassador in Saudi Arabia, I never asked the authorities of Saudi Arabia to make any (decisions) as far as their ties with the US were concerned. Never. We were speaking about our own interests. We had our bilateral interesting things to do.

“We do not (propagandize) against third countries. We criticize certain elements of policy when we see it, but we do not push these countries — the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia — for anything against the interests of third countries.”

Praising the current state of relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, he added: “It’s easier to be in good relations with us, to be on equal footing with us, to be on friendly footing with the Russian Federation. And we do not urge other people to be on awkward (terms) with some other countries.

“That is the difference with the US, which is pressuring countries to participate in its sanctions against us. The approaches from our side and that from the Western countries are absolutely different.

“I think that the people of the Middle East know this difference, and they are more friendly toward us for knowing these facts.”

Given that Russia has welcomed the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran achieved through a Chinese-brokered deal, the question naturally arises why Moscow did not play the role of honest broker itself considering its own close ties with Riyadh and Tehran.

Baklanov claimed that Russia was indeed ready to undertake mediation, admitting that he, as a specialist in Arab and Middle East countries, was “a little bit disillusioned that our Chinese friends turned out to be successful.”

Nevertheless, he said Russia was mainly interested in the result.

“If the good result of this mediation is the start of the returning to normal relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, we are interested in that. If the Chinese attained this political diplomatic victory, we (simply) congratulate them (on this achievement).




Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (C), and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) pose during a meeting in Beijing. (File/AFP)

“But, also, we are ready to go on the same path, so we are both in one boat. We are interested in (stabilization) and normalization of the situation in the whole region. And, recently, we again resumed our proposal for a regional security system arrangement,” he added.

Baklanov brushed aside the suggestion that China’s growing role in the Middle East was a threat to Russia’s influence as an alternative to a non-Western regional diplomatic power.

“We are seeing what is going on in the Middle East region from a different angle. We do not have disputes with China, and we are not striving for a monopolistic role there against the influence of China. No.”

He described Russia’s interest in the Middle East as a very simple one.

“We would like to have near our boundaries a good situation, tranquil (situation). And if we are (serving the cause of peace), it’s okay. If China is (serving the cause of peace), it’s also okay. The main aim for us is not to be the first in these diplomatic activities, but to have positive results,” he said.

 


UK government says Chinese spying on the rise

Updated 10 sec ago
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UK government says Chinese spying on the rise

LONDON: Chinese spying and attempts by Beijing to undermine Britain’s democracy and economy have risen in recent years, the UK government said Tuesday in a report on the Asian giant.
Foreign minister David Lammy told parliament the Labour administration would invest £600 million ($818 million) in its intelligence services as a result of the findings.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer commissioned an “audit” of Britain’s relations with Beijing after he swept to power in landslide general election win last July.
The report, published on Tuesday, recommended high-level engagement with China for a “trade and investment relationship” but also building “resilience” against threats posed by Beijing.
“We understand that China is a sophisticated and persistent threat,” but “not engaging with China is therefore no choice at all,” Lammy told MPs.
“Like our closest allies, we will co-operate where we can and we will challenge where we must,” he said, vowing that meant “never compromising on our national security.”
Starmer has vowed to pursue a “consistent” relationship after the previous Conservative government first trumpeted a “golden era” of close diplomatic ties before relations became increasingly strained.
The British PM hopes Chinese investment can help him achieve his main mission of firing up Britain’s economy.
But differences over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs and Hong Kong — including the imprisonment of media mogul Jimmy Lai — pose hurdles to repairing relations.
In a joint letter coordinated by Reporters Without Borders, 33 organizations around the globe wrote to Starmer on Tuesday asking him to meet Lai’s son Sebastian.
“As a British citizen facing an unthinkable ordeal, Sebastien Lai deserves to hear first-hand from the Prime Minister what the UK is doing to secure his father’s release,” said the letter, which was signed by groups including Amnesty International UK and Human Rights Foundation.
Espionage allegations have also blighted the relationship in recent years, including claims that a Chinese businessman used his links with Britain’s Prince Andrew to spy for the Communist Party.
The report noted that “instances of China’s espionage, interference in our democracy and the undermining of our economic security have increased in recent years.”
“Our national security response will therefore continue to be threat-driven, bolstering our defenses and responding with strong counter-measures,” the government said.
Starmer’s administration is due to rule on whether to approve Beijing’s controversial plans to open the biggest embassy in Britain at a new London location.
Residents, rights groups and China hawks oppose the development, fearing it could be used for the surveillance and harassment of dissidents.

Russian attacks kill 18 civilians in Ukraine as Zelensky seeks more Western help

Updated 24 June 2025
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Russian attacks kill 18 civilians in Ukraine as Zelensky seeks more Western help

  • Zelensky is keen to lock in additional military support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s bigger army
  • A Russian ballistic missile attack on Dnipro hit multiple civilian sites, killing nine people and injuring more than 100

KYIV: Russian drones, missiles and artillery killed at least 18 civilians and injured more than 100 others in Ukraine, officials said Tuesday, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought guarantees of further Western military aid for his country’s efforts to repel Russia’s invasion.

Russian forces have relentlessly blasted civilian areas of Ukraine throughout the war, which is now in its fourth year. More than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, according to the United Nations. Ukraine has also launched long-range drones against Russia, hitting residential areas.

Zelensky was set to meet Tuesday with Western leaders attending a NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands. He is keen to lock in additional military support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s bigger army, as recent direct peace talks have delivered no progress on a possible settlement.

Key US military commitments to Ukraine left over from the Biden administration are expected to run out within months, according to analysts, and there is uncertainty over whether US President Donald Trump is willing to provide more.

A Russian ballistic missile attack on Dnipro hit multiple civilian sites in the central Ukrainian city around midday on Tuesday, killing nine people and injuring more than 100, local officials said.

In the nearby town of Samar, an attack killed two people and injured 11, Dnipro’s regional administration head Serhii Lysak wrote on Telegram.

The barrage damaged 19 schools, 10 kindergartens, a vocational school, a music school and a social welfare office, as well as eight medical facilities, according to Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov. One of the blasts blew out the windows of a passenger train.

Russia also shelled residential neighborhoods and critical infrastructure across Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, killing four civilians and wounding at least eleven others, according to Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the regional military administration.

In the Sumy region of northeastern Ukraine, a drone attack late Monday killed three civilians, including a 5-year-old boy, and injured six others, local authorities said.

Among the injured were two 17-year-old girls and a 12-year-old boy, according to officials.

Russian air defense forces overnight shot down 20 Ukrainian drones, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday morning. It said 14 were downed over the Kursk region, which borders Ukraine, while two had been flying over the Moscow province.

One drone slammed into a tower block on the outskirts of the Russian capital, sparking a fire on its 17th floor, local Gov. Andrei Vorobyov said Tuesday. He said a 34-year-old resident suffered shrapnel wounds to his arm and leg. Two other drones were shot down on the approach to Moscow, according to Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.

Air traffic was briefly halted as a precaution at two major Moscow airports, Vnukovo and Sheremetyevo, a representative of Russia’s aviation authority Rosaviatsiya said.


Merz says NATO spending boost to counter Russia — not please Trump

Updated 24 June 2025
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Merz says NATO spending boost to counter Russia — not please Trump

  • Merz has been racing to build up Germany’s long-neglected armed forces, with the aim of turning them into the ‘strongest conventional army’ in Europe

BERLIN: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz insisted a pledge by NATO allies to boost defense spending at a “historic” summit starting on Tuesday would not just aim to please US President Donald Trump.
“We are not doing this, as some claim, to do the United States and its president a favor,” he told the German parliament before setting off for the gathering in The Hague.
“We are doing this based on our own observations and convictions. Russia, above all, is actively and aggressively threatening security and freedom” across Europe, he added.
“We have to fear that Russia will continue its war beyond Ukraine.”
The summit has been viewed as heavily focused on keeping Trump happy after he made comments that sparked concern about Washington’s commitment to NATO and insisted that other member states spend at least five percent of their GDP on defense.
NATO’s 32 countries have thrashed out a compromise deal to dedicate 3.5 percent to core military spending by 2035, and 1.5 percent to broader security-related areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure.
On Monday, Europe’s biggest economy revealed plans to reach the 3.5 percent level for core spending six years early — in 2029 — with the vast extra outlays necessary made possible after Germany eased its rules on taking on debt.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday that he would head to the NATO summit with the message that “external security and defense capability are once again an absolute priority in (German) government policy.”
“We are bringing about a historic turnaround in defense spending.”
On the summit, he said there were “good signs” about “the broad consensus on how to proceed... I see no reason to assume that we will be given the cold shoulder.”
Since taking office in May, Merz has been racing to build up Germany’s long-neglected armed forces, with the aim of turning them into the “strongest conventional army” in Europe — a radical shift in a country with strong pacifist traditions due to its dark wartime past.
A drive has been launched to boost military personnel, which aims to attract 11,000 fresh recruits this year alone — and Pistorius has suggested conscription, which was halted in Germany in 2011, could be reintroduced if too few people sign up voluntarily.
Germany is also building up a permanent military brigade in Lithuania — the country’s first such overseas deployment since World War II — to bolster NATO’s eastern flank against Russia.


Vietnam aims to sign nuclear power plant deal with Russia in August

Updated 24 June 2025
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Vietnam aims to sign nuclear power plant deal with Russia in August

  • The move follows Vietnam’s restart of plans to develop nuclear power plants
  • It is expected to be online between 2030 and 2035

HANOI: Vietnam’s government said on Tuesday it aims to sign an agreement with its Russian counterpart in August to build the Southeast Asian country’s first nuclear power plant.

Site clearance for development of the plant in Ninh Thuan province is to be completed by the end of this year, the government said in a statement.

The move follows Vietnam’s restart of plans to develop nuclear power plants that were suspended nearly a decade ago, as part of its efforts to ramp up its power generation capacity to support its fast-growing economy.

The government has previously said it expected the first nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of up to 6.4 gigawatts to be online between 2030 and 2035.

The government said on Tuesday it has told the finance ministry, central bank, state energy firm Petrovietnam and utility firm EVN to work with related parties on loans for the project.


Indonesian researchers unearth 500,000-year-old elephant fossils in Java

Updated 24 June 2025
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Indonesian researchers unearth 500,000-year-old elephant fossils in Java

  • Researchers say found elephant fossils may be almost complete 
  • Central Java is also location of archaeological site Sangiran, where ‘Java Man’ was found

Jakarta: Indonesian researchers have discovered fossils of a prehistoric elephant in Central Java, which they estimate are around 500,000 years old. 

The fossils were found in Patiayam, an archaeological site and mountainous area situated on the border of the Kudus and Pati regencies in Central Java, where, throughout the years, ancient animal fossils have been found.

In 2024, a collaborative team organized by the Center for Prehistory and Austronesian Studies, the Dharma Bakti Lestari Foundation and the National Research and Innovation Agency, known locally as BRIN, launched a research project at the site to explore fossil possibilities. 

Though the initial discovery was made then, researchers postponed the project until this year and expanded the site of excavation, which is still ongoing. 

“Based on the geological formation of the site where it was found, we estimate that the fossils are at least 500,000 years old, give or take. We have yet to conduct a direct dating of the fossils, so this is based on a relative dating of the soil layer,” Mohammad Ruly Fauzi, researcher at CPAS and BRIN, told Arab News. 

“We have been able to identify that these belong to an elephas type, but not the specific species … What’s clear is that this is a very big elephant, nothing like elephants today …. It’s prehistoric, not early historic period.”

He said the excavation has made about 50 percent progress and that the elements found so far make up the front part of an elephant. 

“It’s interesting because this is shaping up to be an almost complete fossil … They are all situated pretty closely.” 

Once the excavation is completed, the fossils will be preserved as part of a collection at the Patiayam Archaeological Museum. The discovery might help Patiayam gain recognition as a cultural heritage site, Fauzi added. 

“Every site has its own unique qualities, but Patiayam site is particularly interesting and very deserving to gain status as a national cultural heritage site in our opinion … This research can help serve as a foundation for officials to decide,” he said. 

Central Java, where Patiayam is located, is also home to the Sangiran Early Man Site, a UNESCO World Heritage site renowned for its significant collection of Homo erectus fossils, dating from 1.1 million to 800,000 years ago, including the “Java Man.”