What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for the Middle East

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US President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump meet with US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden on Inauguration Day in Washington, US Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters)
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Updated 21 January 2025
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What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for the Middle East

  • Trump’s inauguration is expected to usher in a new era of US engagement with the region, with major implications for Palestine and Iran
  • New administration has signaled a desire to expand the Abraham Accords, pursue normalization, and resume maximum pressure on Tehran

LONDON: On Monday, the 47th president of the US will be sworn in at a ceremony at the US Capitol in Washington D.C., marking perhaps the greatest political comeback in American history.

For the Middle East, the second inauguration of Donald Trump is expected to usher in a new era of US engagement, overseen by an instinctively disruptive president who is as hard to read as he is transactional.

If any evidence was needed that the incoming administration is eager to wield its influence in the region, it came on January 15, when the outgoing president announced the long-awaited Israel-Hamas ceasefire-for-hostages deal had finally been agreed.

For the now former president, Joe Biden, announcing the breakthrough “after eight months of nonstop negotiation by my administration,” it should have been a triumphant, legacy-defining moment. Instead, he was blindsided by the first question hurled at him by the media.

“Who will the history books credit for this, Mr. President?” a reporter called out. “You or Trump?”




US President-elect Donald Trump arrives for a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US, Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters)

Biden, clearly shocked, paused before replying: “Is that a joke?”

But it wasn’t a joke. The only thing that had changed about the ceasefire deal that his administration had been pushing for since May last year was that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had finally agreed to it.

And the only thing that had changed for Netanyahu was that the man he sees as his friend and most important ally was about to return to office.

For Netanyahu, this seemed the right moment to present Trump with a gift — vindication of the new president’s boast that he would end the war as soon as he took office.

Trump even dispatched Steve Witkoff, his newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, to join Biden’s man, Brett McGurk, for the last 96 hours of talks in Doha, to ensure that the incoming US administration had its mark on the deal.

The appointment of Witkoff came as a surprise to many, as he does not have a diplomatic background. Witkoff does, however, have a reputation as a formidable dealmaker, which fits with Trump’s fondness for transactional foreign policy.

But quite what deal Witkoff might have offered Netanyahu on Trump’s behalf remains to be seen.

“The ceasefire in Gaza is something Trump has claimed credit for, which is unclear. But we shouldn’t think his arrival is good news,” said Kelly Petillo, MENA program manager for the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“We have no idea what Trump has in mind for day-after plans in Gaza. And we don’t know what Trump and his Middle East envoy have promised to Netanyahu in return for him accepting to move forward with the ceasefire.

“We don’t even know if the ceasefire will hold until the next, second phase. The ceasefire does not involve the release of all the hostages and Trump has declared he will ‘unleash hell’ if not all of them are released.”

Unlike Biden, said Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli soldier and senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, “Trump is not someone Netanyahu can easily ignore.

“Even before Trump assumed office, he pressed Netanyahu to strike a deal with Hamas. As a result, Netanyahu surprisingly showed a willingness to concede assets — such as the Philadelphi route — which he had previously deemed critical to Israeli security.”




US President-elect Donald Trump, US Vice President-elect JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance attend a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US, Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters) 

When the ceasefire deal was announced, Trump wasted no time taking to Truth Social to tell his 8.5 million followers: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”

Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, anticipates a gear change in US relations with the region.

“I expect greater involvement in the Middle East by the Trump administration,” said Rabinovich, professor emeritus of Middle Eastern history at Tel Aviv University.

“In the Arab-Israeli context (there will be a) continuation of the effort to end the war in Gaza and possibly to move on to a more ambitious effort to resolve the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

However, Trump’s natural affinity with Israel, expressed most keenly through the Abraham Accords, to which he is expected to return with renewed energy, does not bode well for the Palestinian cause. Neither do some of the appointments to Trump’s top team.

His appointment of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel indicates that any “resolution” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict favored by the incoming US administration will favor Israel, at Palestine’s expense.

Huckabee, an evangelical Christian with deep, biblically inspired connections to Israel, a country he has visited more than 100 times since 1973, is an open opponent of Palestinian sovereignty.

He is an ardent supporter of settlements, stating during a 2017 visit to Israel that “there’s no such thing as a settlement — they’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.” He has also said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.”

Trump’s new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is another staunch ally of Israel who has called for a clampdown on pro-Palestinian protesters in the US and condemned “the poison” of the boycott, divestment, and sanctions movement. He has also said there should be no ceasefire in Gaza until Israel has destroyed “every element” of Hamas.

The nomination of pro-Israel Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN bodes ill for attempts to pursue Palestinian sovereignty through the UN General Assembly.

Last May, on one of many trips she has made to Israel, she addressed members of the Knesset, “in your eternal capital, the holy city of Jerusalem,” declaring herself “a lifelong admirer, supporter, and true friend of Israel and the Jewish people.”

In the wake of Trump’s scene-stealing intervention in the Gaza ceasefire deal, all eyes in the region will be on his wider agenda for the Middle East. At the top of that agenda is Iran. How that plays out could have serious repercussions for Tehran’s neighbors.

Around that, said Petillo, “there is huge unpredictability. Trump is highly unpredictable and likes to remain that way. But we also know that much of what he will do depends on who whispers in his ear at the right time before he is making a decision.

“There are different people in his administration that might push him to go either in the most destructive direction — for instance seeking other maximum pressure style policies to support Israel and address their security concerns vis-a-vis Iran — and others who want to end US involvement in the region and are in favor of deals.”




President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcome President-elect Donald Trump and Melania Trump on the North Portico of the White House in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025. (AP Photo)

But any chance that the Iran nuclear deal will be reinstated surely evaporated with Trump’s re-election. It was, after all, Trump who unilaterally withdrew America from the deal in 2018, instituting new sanctions. He has signalled his intention to return to a policy of “maximum pressure.”

“More widely on Israel-Palestine, Trump will likely pick up where he left off — the Abraham Accords, which he deems a success and which have largely held so far despite rifts caused by the war in Gaza,” said Petillo.

“The big prize of course is a Saudi deal — and I think this will impact whether he will do another round of maximum pressure on Iran as he said he would.”

Saudi Arabia has made clear that any move toward normalization of relations with Israel would be dependent on clear steps towards Palestinian sovereignty.

In September, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the Kingdom “will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the Kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that.”

Shortly after, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud announced the formation of a global alliance to push for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Implementing the two-state solution, he said, was “the best solution to break the cycle of conflict and suffering, and enforce a new reality in which the entire region, including Israel, enjoys security and coexistence.”

But according to Petillo: “Trump’s arrival is not good news for the chances of a two-state solution. Trump and his new administration simply don’t care about Palestinian rights, annexation is likely to be used as a threat and settlements are likely to expand, and the whole issue risks becoming a big real-estate project, with huge consequences for Palestinian security, but I think also for that of ordinary Israelis.”

In November, Bader Mousa Al-Saif, an associate fellow on the MENA program at Chatham House and a historian at Georgetown University, wrote that Trump would find the Gulf region much changed since he last engaged with it.

Since then, “the Arab Gulf states have made strides in the intervening years by taking matters into their own hands — reconciling intra-Gulf discord, freezing the Yemen conflict, and making overtures to regional neighbours like Iran, Syria, and Turkiye.”

Moreover, he added, “the Saudis have banked on a clear precondition for normalization — the end of Israeli occupation and establishment of a Palestinian state.”

However, according to Ibrahim Al-Marashi, associate professor in the Department of History at California State University San Marcos, a different kind of deal could break the deadlock.

“Trump’s repudiation of the Iran nuclear deal served as the primary causal factor in intensifying tensions, escalating into direct violence,” he said. “This violence played out primarily on Iraqi soil, albeit with a brief period of clashes in Syria.

“Trump wants a nuclear deal on his terms that he can claim credit for. If he gets that and sanctions are lifted on Iran, then tensions might finally subside.”




US President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump after attending a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters) 

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, believes “the Trump administration will be unlikely to backtrack on, or jeopardize, the progress that has been made to weaken Iran’s status in the Middle East.

“The region is transforming in ways unimaginable 15 months ago, with new political futures possible in Lebanon and Syria,” he said. “The weakening of both Iran and Russia in the Middle East represents a success story, and Trump will want this dynamic to continue — and to take credit for it.”

And to be recognized for it, as a main plank of his legacy.

“Trump’s desire for a Nobel Prize might push him toward pursuing a peace deal or normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Bregman.

“Achieving this would require Netanyahu to make some progress toward a Palestinian state, a prerequisite for advancing Israeli-Saudi relations. This won’t be easy. But Netanyahu’s wariness of Trump might compel him to act.”


Spaniards turn water pistols on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism

Updated 16 June 2025
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Spaniards turn water pistols on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism

  • About a thousand Spaniards marched to demand a rethink of an economic model they believe is fueling a housing crunch and erasing the character of their city on Sunday
  • The marches were part of a coordinated effort by activists concerned with the ills of overtourism across southern Europe’s top destinations

BARCELONA: Protesters used water pistols against unsuspecting tourists in Barcelona and on the Spanish island of Mallorca on Sunday as demonstrators marched to demand a rethink of an economic model they believe is fueling a housing crunch and erasing the character of their hometowns.
The marches were part of the first coordinated effort by activists concerned with the ills of overtourism across southern Europe’s top destinations. While several thousands rallied in Mallorca in the biggest gathering of the day, hundreds more gathered in other Spanish cities, as well as in Venice, Italy, and Portugal’s capital, Lisbon.
“The squirt guns are to bother the tourists a bit,” Andreu Martínez said in Barcelona with a chuckle after spritzing a couple seated at an outdoor café. “Barcelona has been handed to the tourists. This is a fight to give Barcelona back to its residents.”
Martínez, a 42-year-old administrative assistant, is one of a growing number of residents who are convinced that tourism has gone too far in the city of 1.7 million people. Barcelona hosted 15.5 million visitors last year eager to see Antoni Gaudí’s La Sagrada Familia basilica and the Las Ramblas promenade.
Martínez says his rent has risen over 30 percent as more apartments in his neighborhood are rented to tourists for short-term stays. He said there is a knock-on effect of traditional stores being replaced by businesses catering to tourists, like souvenir shops, burger joints and “bubble tea” spots.
“Our lives, as lifelong residents of Barcelona, are coming to an end,” he said. “We are being pushed out systematically.”
Around 5,000 people gathered in Palma, the capital of Mallorca, with some toting water guns as well and chanting “Everywhere you look, all you see are tourists.” The tourists who were targeted by water blasts laughed it off. The Balearic island is a favorite for British and German sun-seekers. It has seen housing costs skyrocket as homes are diverted to the short-term rental market.
Hundreds more marched in Granada, in southern Spain, and in the northern city of San Sebastián, as well as the island of Ibiza.
In Venice, a couple of dozen protesters unfurled a banner calling for a halt to new hotel beds in the lagoon city in front of two recently completed structures, one in the popular tourist destination’s historic center where activists say the last resident, an elderly woman, was kicked out last year.
‘That’s lovely’
Protesters in Barcelona blew whistles and held up homemade signs saying “One more tourist, one less resident.” They stuck stickers saying “Citizen Self-Defense,” in Catalan, and “Tourist Go Home,” in English, with a drawing of a water pistol on the doors of hotels and hostels.
There was tension when the march stopped in front of a large hostel, where a group emptied their water guns at two workers positioned in the entrance. They also set off firecrackers next to the hostel and opened a can of pink smoke. One worker spat at the protesters as he slammed the hostel’s doors.
American tourists Wanda and Bill Dorozenski were walking along Barcelona’s main luxury shopping boulevard where the protest started. They received a squirt or two, but she said it was actually refreshing given the 83 degree Fahrenheit (28.3 degrees Celsius) weather.
“That’s lovely, thank you sweetheart,” Wanda said to the squirter. “I am not going to complain. These people are feeling something to them that is very personal, and is perhaps destroying some areas (of the city).”
There were also many marchers with water pistols who didn’t fire at bystanders and instead solely used them to spray themselves to keep cool.
Crackdown on Airbnb
Cities across the world are struggling with how to cope with mass tourism and a boom in short-term rental platforms, like Airbnb, but perhaps nowhere has surging discontent been so evident as in Spain, where protesters in Barcelona first took to firing squirt guns at tourists during a protest last summer.
There has also been a confluence of the pro-housing and anti-tourism struggles in Spain, whose 48 million residents welcomed record 94 million international visitors in 2024. When thousands marched through the streets of Spain’s capital in April, some held homemade signs saying “Get Airbnb out of our neighborhoods.”
Spanish authorities are striving to show they hear the public outcry while not hurting an industry that contributes 12 percent of gross domestic product.
Last month, Spain’s government ordered Airbnb to remove almost 66,000 holiday rentals from the platform that it said had violated local rules.
Spain’s Consumer Rights Minister Pablo Bustinduy told The Associated Press shortly after the crackdown on Airbnb that the tourism sector “cannot jeopardize the constitutional rights of the Spanish people,” which enshrines their right to housing and well-being. Carlos Cuerpo, the economy minister, said in a separate interview that the government is aware it must tackle the unwanted side effects of mass tourism.
The boldest move was made by Barcelona’s town hall, which stunned Airbnb and other services who help rent properties to tourists by announcing last year the elimination of all 10,000 short-term rental licenses in the city by 2028.
That sentiment was back in force on Sunday, where people held up signs saying “Your Airbnb was my home.”
‘Taking away housing’
The short-term rental industry, for its part, believes it is being treated unfairly.
“I think a lot of our politicians have found an easy scapegoat to blame for the inefficiencies of their policies in terms of housing and tourism over the last 10, 15, 20 years,” Airbnb’s general director for Spain and Portugal, Jaime Rodríguez de Santiago recently told the AP.
That argument either hasn’t trickled down to the ordinary residents of Barcelona, or isn’t resonating.
Txema Escorsa, a teacher in Barcelona, doesn’t just oppose Airbnb in his home city, he has ceased to use it even when traveling elsewhere, out of principle.
“In the end, you realize that this is taking away housing from people,” he said.


One dead, 36 injured after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru

Updated 16 June 2025
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One dead, 36 injured after 6.1-magnitude earthquake in Peru

  • A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Peru on Sunday, leaving one person dead and 36 injured as the tremor triggered landslides, officials said

LIMA: A 6.1-magnitude earthquake struck Peru on Sunday, leaving one person dead and 36 injured as the tremor triggered landslides, officials said.
The quake hit shortly before noon and was centered around 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Callao, a port city next to the capital Lima, the National Seismological Center said. The US Geological Survey put the magnitude at 5.6.
Peru said the tremor had not generated a tsunami warning.
A man died in Lima when a wall fell on the car he was driving, the National Police said.
In addition, the Emergency Operations Center reported 36 injuries in Lima.
President Dina Boluarte called for “calm” from citizens, noting that there was no tsunami warning for the South American country’s Pacific coastline.
The TV channel Latina showed footage of landslides in several areas of the capital city.
The quake also prompted a suspension of a major football game being played in Lima. The city’s subway service was also halted.
Peru is home to 34 million people and lies on the so-called Ring of Fire, a stretch of intense seismic and volcanic activity around the Pacific basin.
Peru averages at least 100 detectable earthquakes every year.
The last big one, in 2021 in the Amazon region, had a magnitude of 7.5, left 12 people injured and destroyed more than 70 homes.
A devastating quake in 1970 in the northern Ancash region of Peru killed around 67,000 people.


World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank

Updated 16 June 2025
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World entering new era as nuclear powers build up arsenals — SIPRI think tank

  • Nine nuclear states — US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel plan to increase their stockpiles
  • Of total global inventory of estimated 12,241 warheads in Jan. 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use

STOCKHOLM: The world’s nuclear-armed states are beefing up their atomic arsenals and walking out of arms control pacts, creating a new era of threat that has brought an end to decades of reductions in stockpiles since the Cold War, a think tank said on Monday.
Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 warheads in January 2025, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in its yearbook, an annual inventory of the world’s most dangerous weapons.
Around 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, nearly all belonging to either the US or Russia.
SIPRI said global tensions had seen the nine nuclear states — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel — plan to increase their stockpiles.
“The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,” SIPRI said. “Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”
SIPRI said Russia and the US, which together possess around 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, had kept the sizes of their respective useable warheads relatively stable in 2024. But both were implementing extensive modernization programs that could increase the size of their arsenals in the future.
The fastest-growing arsenal is China’s, with Beijing adding about 100 new warheads per year since 2023. China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade.
According to the estimates, Russia and the US held around 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads respectively, while China had around 600.
 


Police break up Nigeria protest as anger mounts over killings in southern state

Updated 16 June 2025
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Police break up Nigeria protest as anger mounts over killings in southern state

  • Gunmen attacked the village of Yelewata in Benue state, killiing over 100, according to Amnesty International
  • Pope Leo XIV condemned the killings, in comments during his Sunday prayer in Rome, calling it a “terrible massacre”

JOS, Nigeria: Police fired tear gas to disperse protesters in the central city of Makurdi on Sunday, as anger mounted over the killing of dozens of people by gunmen in a nearby town.
Gunmen attacked the village of Yelewata on Friday night in a region that has seen a surge in violence amid clashes between Muslim Fulani herders and mostly Christian farmers competing for land and resources.
Police fired tear gas to break up a protest by thousands of people, witnesses said, as demonstrators called on the state’s governor to act swiftly to halt the cycle of violence.
“The protesters were given specific time by the security to make their peaceful protest and disperse,” Tersoo Kula, spokesperson for Benue state’s governor, told AFP.
John Shiaondo, a local journalist, said he was covering the “peaceful protest” when the police moved in and started firing tear gas.
“Many people ran away for fear of injuries, and I also left the scene for my safety,” he told AFP.
Joseph Hir, who took part in the protest, said people were protesting the killings in Benue when the police intervened.
“We are not abusing anyone, we are also not tampering with anybody’s property, we are discharging our rights to peacefully protest the unabated killings of our people, and now the police are shooting tear gas at us,” he told AFP.

Benue state governor Hyacinth Alia told a news conference late Sunday that the death toll had reached 59 in Yelewata, though residents said the toll could exceed 100.
“We will move very quickly to set up a five-man panel... to enable us find out who the culprits are, to know who the sponsors are and to identify the victims and to see how justice will be applied,” Alia said.
Amnesty International put the death toll at more than 100.
The rights group called the attack “horrifying,” saying it “shows the security measures (the) government claims to be implementing in the state are not working.”
Pope Leo XIV also condemned the killings, in comments during his Sunday prayer in Rome, calling it a “terrible massacre” in which mostly displaced civilians were murdered with “extreme cruelty.”
He said “rural Christian communities” in Benue were victims of incessant violence.
Authorities typically blame such attacks on Fulani herders but the latter say they are targets of violence and land seizures too.
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said in a statement Sunday night he had “directed the security agencies to act decisively and arrest perpetrators of these evil acts on all sides of the conflict and prosecute them.
“Political and community leaders in Benue State must act responsibly and avoid inflammatory utterances that could further increase tensions and killings,” he said.
Governor Alia said earlier that “tactical teams had begun arriving from the federal government and security reinforcements are being deployed in vulnerable areas.”
“The state’s joint operational units are also being reinforced, and the government will not let up its efforts to defend the lives and property of all residents,” he said.
Attacks in the region, part of what is known as the central belt of Nigeria, are often motivated by religious or ethnic differences.
Two weeks ago, gunmen killed 25 people in two attacks in Benue state.
More than 150 people were killed in massacres across Plateau and Benue states in April.


EU chief calls at G7 for world to ‘avoid protectionism’

Updated 16 June 2025
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EU chief calls at G7 for world to ‘avoid protectionism’

  • “Let us keep trade between us fair, predictable and open. All of us need to avoid protectionism,” von der Leyen says

KANANASKIS, Canada: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday called on G7 leaders to avoid protectionist trade policies as leaders from the industrialized countries arrived at their annual summit.

“Let us keep trade between us fair, predictable and open. All of us need to avoid protectionism,” von der Leyen said at a press briefing, with US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught certain to enter the conversations at the three-day event.