What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for the Middle East

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US President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump meet with US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden on Inauguration Day in Washington, US Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters)
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Updated 21 January 2025
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What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for the Middle East

  • Trump’s inauguration is expected to usher in a new era of US engagement with the region, with major implications for Palestine and Iran
  • New administration has signaled a desire to expand the Abraham Accords, pursue normalization, and resume maximum pressure on Tehran

LONDON: On Monday, the 47th president of the US will be sworn in at a ceremony at the US Capitol in Washington D.C., marking perhaps the greatest political comeback in American history.

For the Middle East, the second inauguration of Donald Trump is expected to usher in a new era of US engagement, overseen by an instinctively disruptive president who is as hard to read as he is transactional.

If any evidence was needed that the incoming administration is eager to wield its influence in the region, it came on January 15, when the outgoing president announced the long-awaited Israel-Hamas ceasefire-for-hostages deal had finally been agreed.

For the now former president, Joe Biden, announcing the breakthrough “after eight months of nonstop negotiation by my administration,” it should have been a triumphant, legacy-defining moment. Instead, he was blindsided by the first question hurled at him by the media.

“Who will the history books credit for this, Mr. President?” a reporter called out. “You or Trump?”




US President-elect Donald Trump arrives for a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US, Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters)

Biden, clearly shocked, paused before replying: “Is that a joke?”

But it wasn’t a joke. The only thing that had changed about the ceasefire deal that his administration had been pushing for since May last year was that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had finally agreed to it.

And the only thing that had changed for Netanyahu was that the man he sees as his friend and most important ally was about to return to office.

For Netanyahu, this seemed the right moment to present Trump with a gift — vindication of the new president’s boast that he would end the war as soon as he took office.

Trump even dispatched Steve Witkoff, his newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, to join Biden’s man, Brett McGurk, for the last 96 hours of talks in Doha, to ensure that the incoming US administration had its mark on the deal.

The appointment of Witkoff came as a surprise to many, as he does not have a diplomatic background. Witkoff does, however, have a reputation as a formidable dealmaker, which fits with Trump’s fondness for transactional foreign policy.

But quite what deal Witkoff might have offered Netanyahu on Trump’s behalf remains to be seen.

“The ceasefire in Gaza is something Trump has claimed credit for, which is unclear. But we shouldn’t think his arrival is good news,” said Kelly Petillo, MENA program manager for the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“We have no idea what Trump has in mind for day-after plans in Gaza. And we don’t know what Trump and his Middle East envoy have promised to Netanyahu in return for him accepting to move forward with the ceasefire.

“We don’t even know if the ceasefire will hold until the next, second phase. The ceasefire does not involve the release of all the hostages and Trump has declared he will ‘unleash hell’ if not all of them are released.”

Unlike Biden, said Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli soldier and senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, “Trump is not someone Netanyahu can easily ignore.

“Even before Trump assumed office, he pressed Netanyahu to strike a deal with Hamas. As a result, Netanyahu surprisingly showed a willingness to concede assets — such as the Philadelphi route — which he had previously deemed critical to Israeli security.”




US President-elect Donald Trump, US Vice President-elect JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance attend a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US, Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters) 

When the ceasefire deal was announced, Trump wasted no time taking to Truth Social to tell his 8.5 million followers: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”

Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, anticipates a gear change in US relations with the region.

“I expect greater involvement in the Middle East by the Trump administration,” said Rabinovich, professor emeritus of Middle Eastern history at Tel Aviv University.

“In the Arab-Israeli context (there will be a) continuation of the effort to end the war in Gaza and possibly to move on to a more ambitious effort to resolve the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

However, Trump’s natural affinity with Israel, expressed most keenly through the Abraham Accords, to which he is expected to return with renewed energy, does not bode well for the Palestinian cause. Neither do some of the appointments to Trump’s top team.

His appointment of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel indicates that any “resolution” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict favored by the incoming US administration will favor Israel, at Palestine’s expense.

Huckabee, an evangelical Christian with deep, biblically inspired connections to Israel, a country he has visited more than 100 times since 1973, is an open opponent of Palestinian sovereignty.

He is an ardent supporter of settlements, stating during a 2017 visit to Israel that “there’s no such thing as a settlement — they’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.” He has also said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.”

Trump’s new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is another staunch ally of Israel who has called for a clampdown on pro-Palestinian protesters in the US and condemned “the poison” of the boycott, divestment, and sanctions movement. He has also said there should be no ceasefire in Gaza until Israel has destroyed “every element” of Hamas.

The nomination of pro-Israel Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN bodes ill for attempts to pursue Palestinian sovereignty through the UN General Assembly.

Last May, on one of many trips she has made to Israel, she addressed members of the Knesset, “in your eternal capital, the holy city of Jerusalem,” declaring herself “a lifelong admirer, supporter, and true friend of Israel and the Jewish people.”

In the wake of Trump’s scene-stealing intervention in the Gaza ceasefire deal, all eyes in the region will be on his wider agenda for the Middle East. At the top of that agenda is Iran. How that plays out could have serious repercussions for Tehran’s neighbors.

Around that, said Petillo, “there is huge unpredictability. Trump is highly unpredictable and likes to remain that way. But we also know that much of what he will do depends on who whispers in his ear at the right time before he is making a decision.

“There are different people in his administration that might push him to go either in the most destructive direction — for instance seeking other maximum pressure style policies to support Israel and address their security concerns vis-a-vis Iran — and others who want to end US involvement in the region and are in favor of deals.”




President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcome President-elect Donald Trump and Melania Trump on the North Portico of the White House in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025. (AP Photo)

But any chance that the Iran nuclear deal will be reinstated surely evaporated with Trump’s re-election. It was, after all, Trump who unilaterally withdrew America from the deal in 2018, instituting new sanctions. He has signalled his intention to return to a policy of “maximum pressure.”

“More widely on Israel-Palestine, Trump will likely pick up where he left off — the Abraham Accords, which he deems a success and which have largely held so far despite rifts caused by the war in Gaza,” said Petillo.

“The big prize of course is a Saudi deal — and I think this will impact whether he will do another round of maximum pressure on Iran as he said he would.”

Saudi Arabia has made clear that any move toward normalization of relations with Israel would be dependent on clear steps towards Palestinian sovereignty.

In September, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the Kingdom “will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the Kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that.”

Shortly after, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud announced the formation of a global alliance to push for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Implementing the two-state solution, he said, was “the best solution to break the cycle of conflict and suffering, and enforce a new reality in which the entire region, including Israel, enjoys security and coexistence.”

But according to Petillo: “Trump’s arrival is not good news for the chances of a two-state solution. Trump and his new administration simply don’t care about Palestinian rights, annexation is likely to be used as a threat and settlements are likely to expand, and the whole issue risks becoming a big real-estate project, with huge consequences for Palestinian security, but I think also for that of ordinary Israelis.”

In November, Bader Mousa Al-Saif, an associate fellow on the MENA program at Chatham House and a historian at Georgetown University, wrote that Trump would find the Gulf region much changed since he last engaged with it.

Since then, “the Arab Gulf states have made strides in the intervening years by taking matters into their own hands — reconciling intra-Gulf discord, freezing the Yemen conflict, and making overtures to regional neighbours like Iran, Syria, and Turkiye.”

Moreover, he added, “the Saudis have banked on a clear precondition for normalization — the end of Israeli occupation and establishment of a Palestinian state.”

However, according to Ibrahim Al-Marashi, associate professor in the Department of History at California State University San Marcos, a different kind of deal could break the deadlock.

“Trump’s repudiation of the Iran nuclear deal served as the primary causal factor in intensifying tensions, escalating into direct violence,” he said. “This violence played out primarily on Iraqi soil, albeit with a brief period of clashes in Syria.

“Trump wants a nuclear deal on his terms that he can claim credit for. If he gets that and sanctions are lifted on Iran, then tensions might finally subside.”




US President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump after attending a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters) 

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, believes “the Trump administration will be unlikely to backtrack on, or jeopardize, the progress that has been made to weaken Iran’s status in the Middle East.

“The region is transforming in ways unimaginable 15 months ago, with new political futures possible in Lebanon and Syria,” he said. “The weakening of both Iran and Russia in the Middle East represents a success story, and Trump will want this dynamic to continue — and to take credit for it.”

And to be recognized for it, as a main plank of his legacy.

“Trump’s desire for a Nobel Prize might push him toward pursuing a peace deal or normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Bregman.

“Achieving this would require Netanyahu to make some progress toward a Palestinian state, a prerequisite for advancing Israeli-Saudi relations. This won’t be easy. But Netanyahu’s wariness of Trump might compel him to act.”


Belarus opposition leader freed from jail after US mediation

Updated 4 sec ago
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Belarus opposition leader freed from jail after US mediation

His wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said the US helped broker the deal and thanked US President Donald Trump
Tikhanovsky, 46, had been imprisoned for more than five years

WARSAW: Belarus’s top jailed opposition leader Sergei Tikhanovsky was freed alongside over a dozen other political prisoners on Saturday in a surprise release hailed as a “symbol of hope.”

His wife Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who took the mantle of the opposition after his jailing, said the United States helped broker the deal and thanked US President Donald Trump.

Tikhanovsky, 46, had been imprisoned for more than five years.

He planned to run against incumbent Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko in the August 2020 presidential election, but was arrested and detained weeks before the vote.

Svetlana — a political novice at the time of his arrest — took his place in the polls.

She posted a video on Saturday of her embracing Tikhanovsky after his release with the caption: “FREE.”

“It’s hard to describe the joy in my heart,” she said in a post on X.

Thirteen others were released, including Radio Liberty journalist Igor Karnei, who was arrested in 2023 and jailed for participating in an “extremist” organization.

They have now been transferred from Belarus to Lithuania, where they are receiving “proper care,” Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys said.

The announcement came just hours after Lukashenko met US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Minsk, the highest profile visit of a US official to the authoritarian state in years.

Belarus, ruled by Lukashenko since 1994, has outlawed all genuine opposition parties and is the only European country to retain the death penalty as a punishment.

The eastern European country still holds over 1,000 political prisoners in its jails, according to Viasna.

Swedish-Belarusian citizen Galina Krasnyanskaya, arrested in 2023 for allegedly supporting Ukraine, was also freed, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.

The release comes amid a broader warming of relations between the United States and Belarus’s chief ally Russia under Trump.

Since taking office, the Republican has engaged in direct talks with Vladimir Putin, ending his predecessor’s policy of isolating the Russian president.

Tikhanovsky was for years held incommunicado, and in 2023 his wife was told that he had “died.”

In a video published by Viasna on Saturday, he appeared almost unrecognizable, his head shaven and face emaciated.

Tikhanovsky was sentenced in 2021 to 18 years in prison for “organizing riots” and “inciting hatred” and then to 18 months extra for “insubordination.”

A charismatic activist, Tikhanovsky drew the ire of authorities for describing Lukashenko as a “cockroach” and his campaign slogan was “Stop the cockroach.”

Lukashenko claimed a landslide victory in the 2020 election, a result that sparked massive opposition protests which authorities violently suppressed.

The Belarusian autocrat claimed a record seventh term in elections earlier this year that observers blasted as a farce.

Fellow Belarusian political activists and foreign politicians welcomed the release.

Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the “free world” needed Tikhanovsky.

“My sincerest joy goes out to you, Tikhanovskaya and your entire family,” he wrote on X.

Former Belarusian culture minister Pavel Latushko, who supported the 2020 protests against Lukashenko, said all those released had been jailed illegally and hailed Tikhanovsky’s release as an “important moment.”

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen hailed Tikhanovsky’s release and called for Belarus to free its other political prisoners.

“This is fantastic news and a powerful symbol of hope for all the political prisoners suffering under the brutal Lukashenka regime,” she said on X.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Tikhanovsky’s release was “fantastically good news.”

“At the same time, we must not forget the many other prisoners in Belarus. Lukashenko must finally release them,” he said on X.

Eight dead in Brazil hot air balloon accident

Updated 21 June 2025
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Eight dead in Brazil hot air balloon accident

  • “Eight fatalities and 13 survivors,” governor Jorginho Mello said
  • An investigation was launched

SAO PAULO: At least eight people were killed Saturday when a hot air balloon with 21 passengers caught fire in southern Brazil, said the governor of Santa Catarina state, where the incident occurred.

“Eight fatalities and 13 survivors,” governor Jorginho Mello said on X.

Videos taken by bystanders and carried on Brazilian television showed the moment when the balloon erupted in flames above the coastal town of Praia Grande. The weather conditions were clear.


The basket carrying the passengers plummeted dozens of meters to the ground in flames.

An investigation was launched to determine the cause of the accident.

Praia Grande, on the Atlantic coast, is a popular destination for hot-air ballooning in Brazil.

That was the second fatal balloon accident in the country in just a few days. Less than a week ago, a woman died during a ride in southeastern Sao Paulo state.


Suicide blast kills 20 anti-militant fighters in Nigeria

Updated 21 June 2025
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Suicide blast kills 20 anti-militant fighters in Nigeria

  • Police have confirmed 10 people were killed and said the overall toll could be higher
  • They have also overrun military bases, killing soldiers and carting away weapons

KONDUGA, Nigeria: A suicide attack in Nigeria’s Borno state by a woman allegedly acting for Boko Haram insurgents has killed at least 20 anti-militant fighters, militia members told AFP on Saturday.

Police have confirmed 10 people were killed and said the overall toll could be higher.

Boko Haram and its rival, the Daesh West Africa Province (Daesh-WAP), have in recent months intensified attacks on villages in Borno and neighboring states.

They have also overrun military bases, killing soldiers and carting away weapons.

Late on Friday, a woman allegedly detonated explosives strapped to her body at a haunt for vigilantes and local hunters assisting the Nigerian military in fighting “militants” in the town of Konduga, the militia told AFP.

“We lost 20 people in the suicide attack which happened yesterday around 9:15 p.m. (2015 GMT) while our members were hanging out near the fish market,” said Tijjani Ahmed, the head of an anti-militant militia in Konduga district.

Konduga is about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Maiduguri, the capital of the northeastern state of Borno.

Surrounding villages have been repeatedly targeted by suicide bombers said to be acting for Boko Haram, a group of armed Islamic militants that has been active in the area for at least 16 years.

Konduga town itself had seen a lull in such attacks in the past year.

“Eighteen people died on the spot, while 18 others were injured. Two more died in hospital, raising the death toll to 20,” Ahmed said.

Sixteen were wounded, with 10 of them nursing severe injuries in two hospitals in Maiduguri, he said.

The dead were buried in a mass funeral on Saturday, an AFP reporter saw.

Corpses wrapped in white cloths — some covered in bamboo mats — were laid out in rows on the ground on wooden biers ahead of the burial.

The alleged bomber was dressed as a local heading to the crowded nearby fish market.

She detonated her explosives as soon as she reached the shed used by the militia fighters as a hangout, said militia member Ibrahim Liman.

He gave the same toll as Ahmed.

Borno state police spokesman Nahum Daso told AFP that 10 bodies had been recovered from the “suicide attack.”

He said the toll could be higher as “details are sketchy.”

Konduga’s fish market, which is usually busy at night, has been the target of a series of suicide attacks in the past.

“I was in the market to buy fish for dinner when I heard a loud bang some meters behind me,” Konduga resident Ahmed Mallum said.

“I was flung to the ground and I couldn’t stand. I just lay down,” Mallum said.

The conflict between the authorities and Boko Haram has been ongoing for 16 years.

In that time, more than 40,000 people have died and around two million have been displaced from their homes in the northeast, according to the United Nations.

The violence has spread to neighboring Niger, Chad and Cameroon, prompting a regional military coalition to fight armed militant Islamic groups.


Where does India stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

Updated 21 June 2025
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Where does India stand on the Israel-Iran conflict?

  • Middle East situation shows India deviating from its traditionally pro-peace foreign policy, experts say
  • Indian foreign ministry called both sides ‘to avoid any escalatory steps,’ engage in dialogue

NEW DELHI: India is on a path of non-involvement in the growing conflict in the Middle East, experts said on Saturday, as they warned Delhi’s silence could have serious implications for the region.

Israeli attacks on Iran started on June 13 when Tel Aviv hit more than a dozen sites — including key nuclear facilities and residences of military leaders and scientists — claiming they were aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

After Iran retaliated with ballistic missile strikes against Israel, the two countries have been on a tit-for-tat cycle of bombing.

Israel’s attacks on Iran have reportedly killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, while Iranian missile strikes have killed 24 people and injured hundreds more in Israel.

India has yet to join other Asian nations — such as China, Japan, Pakistan and Indonesia — in condemning Israel’s initial strikes against Iran.

It was also the only country in the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization which did not endorse a statement issued by the bloc, condemning Israel’s military strikes on Iran. SCO is a political and security body that includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Central Asian nations.

In a statement, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs urged “both sides to avoid any escalatory steps” and engage in dialogue and diplomacy “to work towards de-escalation.”

“India enjoys close and friendly relations with both the countries and stands ready to extend all possible support,” the ministry said.

Talmiz Ahmad, an Indian diplomat who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE, described the statement as “a very low-key remark and is meant for the record.”

“India is not interested in engaging itself with serious matters pertaining to regional diplomacy. India is not interested in pursuing ways in which we could promote security and stability,” he said.

Historically, India’s ties with countries in West Asia — a region that includes the Middle East — have been bilateral and transactional, lacking engagement “with the region in a collective sense.”

“With regard to the Israeli-Iran issue we have taken a position of non-involvement … (but) silence in this matter where Israel has initiated a conflict that could have potentially horrendous implications for the region, is another and is something which India should be very concerned about,” Ahmad said.

“There is no justification whatsoever for India to be so indifferent to the flames that are now gathering speed and strength right in our neighborhood.”

India is Israel’s largest arms buyer and Israel is India’s fourth-largest arms supplier. According to a report from Reuters, India has imported military hardware worth $2.9 billion over the last decade.

Delhi also has strategic interests in Iran and has invested around $370 million in a port development project in the Iranian port of Chabahar, aimed at hastening trade and connectivity links to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Moreover, there are over 10,000 Indian nationals living in Iran, the majority of whom are students. Delhi has prioritized safely evacuating them since Israeli attacks began last week.

Peace in the region should be within India’s strategic interest, according to Delhi-based foreign policy scholar and researcher N. Sai Balaji, who highlighted the 9 million Indians living and working in West Asia.

“Not only that these (9 million) Indians contribute to billions of dollars in terms of remittances (but) India’s energy needs are met from West Asia,” Balaji told Arab News. “Any conflict with Iran or any conflict in West Asia does not only destabilize its financial stability in forms of remittances but also energy security.”

He said the Indian government was “taking sides clearly by not calling out the aggression of Israel.”

“India is not only abdicating its historic responsibility but also changing its foreign policy to accommodate Israel,” Balaji added.

Sudheendra Kulkarni, who served as an advisor to India’s former premier Atal Bihari Vajpayee, said the country had shifted its traditional approach in foreign policy.

“India has always stood for peace in the world … Therefore, it is deeply painful that Narendra Modi’s government has deviated from this traditionally pro-peace foreign policy of India,” Kulkarni told Arab News.

“It is wrong for the government to keep silent in the face of Israel’s naked aggression against Iran … Under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, Israel is the aggressor. It has violated international law. Iran is the victim. Iran has the right to defend itself.”


Ukraine says received Russian bodies in war dead exchanges

Updated 21 June 2025
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Ukraine says received Russian bodies in war dead exchanges

  • Zelensky accused Russia of “not checking” who they were sending
  • “Sometimes these bodies even have Russian passports“

KYIV: Kyiv received the bodies of 20 Russian soldiers instead of Ukrainian ones during exchanges of war dead with Moscow, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in remarks made public Saturday.

He accused Russia of “not checking” who they were sending, and suggested Moscow might be doing it on purpose to conflate the number of Ukrainian bodies they had.

The repatriation of fallen soldiers and the exchange of prisoners of war has been one of the few areas of cooperation between the warring sides since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Moscow and Kyiv agreed earlier this month during talks in Istanbul to exchange the bodies of 6,000 soldiers each.

“It has already been confirmed during repatriations that the bodies of 20 people handed over to us as our deceased soldiers are Russian,” Zelensky said in remarks released on Saturday.

“Sometimes these bodies even have Russian passports,” he added.

An “Israeli mercenary” fighting for Moscow was also among those sent, he said.

Tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed on both sides since the war began. Neither country regularly releases information on military casualties.

Zelensky said there were currently “695,000 Russian troops” on Ukrainian territory.