LONDON: In a bid to unify the Syrian Arab Republic, the interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces signed a landmark deal on March 10. The enactment remains uncertain, though, particularly after the recent constitutional declaration.

Aimed at integrating all military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state, the deal comes at a critical time as President Ahmad Al-Sharaa seeks legitimacy amid growing international scrutiny over the killings of minority Alawites by allied militias.

If enacted, the agreement “could significantly reshape Syria’s post-war landscape,” Nanar Hawach, senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Arab News.

“The timing is key,” he said. “The deal comes as Syria faces major security challenges, including recent massacres on the coast and Israeli interventions in the south. These pressures likely pushed Damascus to sign the agreement.”

Mutlu Civiroglu, a Washington-based Kurdish affairs analyst, says signing the deal with SDF commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi allows Al-Sharaa “to present himself as a leader committed to ensuring all identities are represented in Syria’s future.”

According to Civiroglu, Abdi is “a highly respected figure not only among Kurds but also across other communities, such as the Alawites, Druze, and Christians.”

Kurdish groups, united under the umbrella of the SDF and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), have condemned the recent attacks on Alawites — the ethno-religious group from which the Assad family traces its roots.

Abdi described the attacks as part of a “systematic campaign against Syria’s minorities.” He told Reuters news agency that Al-Sharaa must “intervene to halt the massacres.”

On March 6, the deadliest bloodshed since Bashar Assad’s fall in December began when Assad loyalists ambushed security forces in Jableh, Latakia province, killing 13. The attack set off a wave of reprisals, with revenge killings targeting Alawite civilians.

Violence escalated further on March 9 as clashes reignited in Banias, also in Latakia, when security forces came under attack at a power plant. Within days, at least 1,300 people, including 973 civilians, were killed, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Against this backdrop, Rami Abdulrahman, head of the SOHR, told a Kurdish news channel that tens of thousands of Alawites who had fled the violence on the coast for the safety of the mountains believe an SDF presence in their areas could provide a “safe haven.”

The Damascus-SDF deal, set for implementation by the end of the year, recognizes that “the Kurdish community is indigenous to the Syrian state,” guaranteeing “its right to citizenship and all of its constitutional rights,” according to a presidential statement.

It also mandates a complete cessation of hostilities in SDF-controlled areas, which have been under attack by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army since Dec. 8, when a Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham-led coalition ousted the Assad regime.

“For Syrian Kurds in Rojava — Kurdish Syria — the agreement guarantees recognition of their rights, something they lacked under Assad before the war,” said Hawach of the International Crisis Group.

The deal also includes economic benefits for both sides.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, says oil is a key part of the agreement and “will be key to raising revenue for the new Syria.”

The interim government “will gain full control over the oil fields, which is a triumph, but the Kurds will get half the proceeds, which was a win for them,” he told Arab News.

“This will allow the government to hire foreign oil companies to repair Syria’s dilapidated industry and energy infrastructure. Syria needs major foreign investment in its energy sector, which was impossible so long as control over the oil region was contested.”

Syria’s oil industry is in a dire state, with production plummeting from pre-war levels of up to 400,000 barrels per day to as little as 80,000, according to S&P Global, a financial intelligence and analytics firm.

Years of conflict, sanctions, and damaged infrastructure have crippled the sector, leaving Syria heavily reliant on imports. Reviving oil production is seen as critical to funding the country’s reconstruction, which could cost up to $400 billion.

Reinforcing Landis’ argument, Hawach said the deal’s implementation could “provide economic benefits — as the northeast is Syria’s most resource-rich region — and open the door for joint efforts with Damascus against (Daesh).”

He added: “For Syrians under the HTS-led administration, the deal marks a major step toward national reintegration. The return of 30 percent of Syria under Damascus’ control, after over a decade of fragmentation, could improve governance, service delivery, and economic stability.”

The move, seen as a step toward national reconciliation after 14 years of conflict, has been welcomed by the UN and regional and Western countries, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, France, Germany, and Canada.

However, Hawach stressed that the agreement’s success hinges on how the parties resolve the still undecided practical aspects of reintegration.

Landis agrees that while the deal “gives a degree of autonomy to northeastern Syria” and sets out key principles, it is “not a fully worked-out plan,” he said.

“Many of the thorny details will have to be worked out in the future,” he added.

Landis pointed out that “a key element is the military,” explaining that “the Kurds insisted on having their own force, resident in the northeast.”

Under the accord, the SDF must integrate into the Syrian Defense Ministry and cede control of all border crossings with Iraq and Turkiye, as well as airports and oil fields in the northeastern semi-autonomous region it has controlled since 2015.

“There has been a compromise in that the SDF will be placed under the Ministry of Defense, but only regional forces will be placed in the northeast,” said Landis. “How this will all work out is not clear.

“The Kurds are clearly hoping for something similar to the arrangement in Iraq, where in essence they have their own mini ministry of defense,” he added.

In Iraq, the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs oversees the Kurdistan Region’s own armed forces, which are responsible for protecting the semi-autonomous territory’s borders, land and sovereignty.

Landis said Syria’s interim president “does not want to accord the minorities autonomy,” adding that “he has stated that Syria will have a centralized state.”

Furthermore, “the new constitution makes no mention of a special arrangement for the Kurds,” he added.

On March 13, Al-Sharaa signed a temporary constitution establishing Islamist rule in Syria for a five-year transitional period. The following day, the SDF’s political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council, rejected the constitutional declaration and called for it to be redrafted.

The council argued that the temporary constitution “reintroduces authoritarianism” by centralizing power and granting unchecked authority to the executive.

“The SDC strongly rejects any attempt to recreate dictatorship under the guise of a ‘transitional phase.’ Any constitutional declaration must be the result of genuine national consensus, not a project imposed by one party.”

The council called for “a complete reformulation of the declaration” to “ensure a fair distribution of power, guarantee freedom of political activity, and recognize the rights of all Syrian components.”